Track Walk: Brickyard Weekend 2021

Indianapolis Motor Speedway hosts a special event this summer

The 12th round of the 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season is back on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course. This is the second trip to the IMS road course after the Grand Prix of Indianapolis in May and this is the second consecutive season the IMS road course has held multiple race weekends. IndyCar and NASCAR will share the racetrack this weekend, as both the NASCAR Cup Series and NASCAR Xfinity Series will run the road course. This is the first time the Cup Series has run the IMS road course while the Xfinity Series used the road course last year. Previously, the Brickyard 400 had run 27 times on the 2.5-mile oval. For this race weekend, IndyCar qualifying will be a two-round knockout format, as what was used at Belle Isle. Round one will still be two groups with the top six advancing, but round two will be the final round with 12 cars fighting for pole position. 

Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 12:30 p.m. ET on Saturday August 14 with green flag scheduled for 12:45 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBCSN
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and Paul Tracy will be in the booth. Marty Snider and Kelli Stavast will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule 
Friday:
First Practice: 3:00 p.m. ET (60 minutes)*

Qualifying: 7:00 p.m. ET (NBCSN will have live coverage)
Saturday:
Warm-Up: 8:45 a.m. ET (30 minutes)*
Race: 12:45 p.m. ET (85 laps)

* - All practice and qualifying sessions are available live on Peacock

Championship Picture

Down to five races remaining and 270 points left on the table, 21 drivers remain mathematically alive for the Astor Cup and IndyCar championship. 

Álex Palou maintained his championship lead after a seventh-place finish in Nashville. Palou is up to 410 points and he is 42 points ahead of Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Scott Dixon. Dixon picked up his third consecutive top five finish at Nashville and he has finished in the top ten in ten of 11 races this year. 

Patricio O'Ward dropped to third in the championship after his 13th-place result in Nashville and he is 48 points behind Palou. That snapped O'Ward top ten finish streak at five consecutive races. Josef Newgarden remained fourth but the Tennessean left his home state 75 points off the championship lead. Marcus Ericsson's second victory of the season has him fifth in the championship, 79 points behind his Ganassi teammate Palou and the Swede has five consecutive top ten finishes.

Graham Rahal jumped up three spots in the championship after a fifth-place finish in Nashville, but Rahal is 124 points off Palou. He has six top five finishes this season, but only one of those is better than fifth. He was third in the second Texas race. Despite Simon Pagenaud having finished outside the top ten in the last three races, he remains seventh in the championship, 130 points off Palou. 

Colton Herta's accident at Nashville while running second was a significant blow to his championship hopes. Instead of leaving Nashville with 43 points and a runner-up finish, Herta was 19th and scored 15 points. That 28-point swing in one accident has Herta eighth in the championship, 135 points off the top spot.

Rinus VeeKay has only scored 32 points over the last four races, and yet VeeKay is still ninth in the championship, 147 points behind fellow sophomore Palou. Takuma Sato rounds out the top ten, 179 points back. 

Will Power has been 11th in the championship after the last four races. Power has yet to win a pole position or a race this season and he has finished outside the top ten in seven of the first 11 races. The Australian is 185 points behind Palou. Alexander Rossi is a further 11 points behind the championship leader after suffering his fourth finish outside the top 15 this season. Scott McLaughlin remains the top rookie, but with 206 points McLaughlin is 204 points behind Palou and McLaughlin has not started nor finished in the top ten in the last six races. 

Jack Harvey got his first top 15 finish in the last eight races at Nashville. Unfortunately, it was 15th and Harvey is 225 points off the championship leader. Ryan Hunter-Reay is fresh off his first top five finish of the year, but he is still 233 points back. Romain Grosjean and James Hinchcliffe are each 244 points in the distance of the Spaniard while Sébastien Bourdais and Conor Daly are tied at 250 points back. 

Ed Jones rounds out the top twenty in the championship, 257 points back. Despite starting only five races this season, Santino Ferrucci is still alive for the championship on 146 points, 264 points behind Palou. However, Ferrucci will not be entered for the IMS road course race.

After Nashville, Hélio Castroneves, Felix Rosenqvist, Dalton Kellett, Ed Carpenter, Max Chilton and Tony Kanaan were eliminated from championship contention. 

Only 216 points will be left on the table after this race and if Palou scores the minimum five points this weekend, that means a driver must leave with at least 199 points. Currently everyone from Harvey in 14th through Ferrucci in 21st has fewer than 199 points.

If Palou was to score the least amount of points this weekend, Jones could only remain alive with a race victory, Bourdais and Daly would need to at least finish second, Grosjean and Hinchcliffe could reach safety with a third-place finish or a fourth with at least one bonus point, Hunter-Reay needs at least a ninth-place result and Harvey would need to finish at least 16th. 

While we are looking at what drivers need to do to remain alive, we should look at what Palou could possibility do with an exceptional day. If Palou were to score the maximum 54 points, he would move the cut line up to 265 points, which currently everyone from VeeKay to Ferrucci is below. 

Starting the race would ensure VeeKay's safety as he is currently on 263 points and would receive five points just for starting, but Sato would need to score at least 17 points to stay alive, meaning 13th or better. Power would need to scored at least 23 points, a finish of eighth or better. Rossi would need to finish third or better to remain alive if Palou scored 54 points this weekend. 

If Palou scores maximum points this weekend, everyone from McLaughlin to Ferrucci would be eliminated from the championship. 

What Does the Spring Tell Us About the Summer?

We have already run an IMS road course race this year, and while the track conditions will be different compared to the May race, we can still learn something from that first event. 

Rinus VeeKay came out as the winner in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis from seventh of the grid. VeeKay opened the weekend being third and second in the two practice sessions. He only missed out on advancing to the final round of qualifying by 0.0348 seconds. It took the Dutchman 48 laps to get to the lead after leap-frogging Romain Grosjean during a pit cycle, but VeeKay was a presence in the top five from the start. He would sacrifice the lead for four laps after his final stop but he led the final 21 laps and won by 4.95 seconds over Grosjean. 

While VeeKay won the race, Grosjean's performance carried the weekend. The Frenchman took pole position and led 44 of 85 laps, but lost the race after difficulty negotiating lapped traffic. Grosjean was never lower than fourth in the race, ultimately ending up second. He was fifth and seventh in the two practice sessions prior to his pole position. 

The IMS road course race comes at a good time for Team Penske. In May, Josef Newgarden qualified second and finished fourth. Simon Pagenaud climbed to sixth from tenth. Scott McLaughlin ended up eighth, his most recent top ten finish. Will Power was 11th and was stuck in the pack all race, but Power still has fourth victories at this track and he has started on pole position in five of ten IMS road course races. 

Championship leader Álex Palou rounded out the podium and pushed Grosjean through the middle of the race. While Palou started at the front, his teammates had to fight from the middle of the field. Marcus Ericsson and Scott Dixon both started on row eight. Dixon ended up ninth, a spot ahead of Ericsson but Dixon's average finish in the last three IMS road course races is 8.667 and he has started outside the top ten on all three occasions. Ericsson has started on row eight in the last three IMS road course races and twice he worked his way up to tenth. He went from 14th to sixth in the 2020 Grand Prix of Indianapolis.

Graham Rahal has nine consecutive top ten finishes on the IMS road course and in six of those races he has started outside the top ten. 

While we have looked at the good, a few drivers might have some concerns this weekend. 

Patricio O'Ward has had scattered results on the IMS road course. He was 19th in his first race in 2019, but he was issued an early penalty in that race for contact with Rossi and didn't quite have the set up in the changing conditions. He was eighth for the first race in 2020, but was nowhere in the first Harvest Grand Prix race, dropping from tenth to 22nd. The second Harvest Grand Prix race saw a bounce back, starting and finishing fifth, but he started 18th and finished 15th in this year's Grand Prix of Indianapolis.

Three quarters of the Andretti Autosport team were outside the top ten in May. Ryan Hunter-Reay has finished outside the top ten in the last six IMS road course races, while James Hinchcliffe has not had a top ten in the last five races on this track. 

Jack Harvey had an improper pit exit and a punctured tire take away a possible podium finish in May. Harvey ended up 23rd. He has started no worse than seventh in his five IMS road course starts and he has three top ten finishes. 

Takuma Sato has never finished better than ninth on the IMS road course and he has never started better than 11th.

Sébastien Bourdais has finished fourth in three IMS road course races. In his other six starts, his average finish is 19.1667.

New Faces

A second IMS road course race will see some fresh faces on the IndyCar grid. One is a debutant driver. The other is a debutant team. 

Danish driver Christian Lundgaard will make his IndyCar debut in the #45 Honda for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. Lundgaard is 20 years old and he has been competing in Formula Two for the last two seasons as part of the Alpine F1 Team's driver academy. 

Lundgaard is currently 12th in the Formula Two championship with his best finishes being a second at Bahrain and a third at Silverstone. Last year, he was seventh in the Formula Two championship with victories at the Red Bull Ring and Mugello and double podium results at the Silverstone and Monza rounds. 

During IndyCar's summer break, Lundgaard tested for RLLR at Barber Motorsports Park. 

Top Gun Racing is back and this team is guaranteed its IndyCar debut. The team is bringing back the #75 Chevrolet and RC Enerson for this race. Enerson was the lone driver to fail to qualify for the Indianapolis 500 with his best qualifying attempt at 227.298 MPH. 

Enerson has made four IndyCar starts, most recently at Mid-Ohio in 2019. Through the Road to Indy system, the Floridian ran six races on the IMS road course, however, he had only two top five finishes, both in 2015 and his best result was second in Indy Lights.

Enerson is coming off his first NASCAR Cup Series start at Watkins Glen driving for Rick Ware Racing. Enerson was 34th at Watkins Glen, two laps down.

The Odd World of IndyCar Through 11 Races

This has been an odd season for IndyCar, and we still have just over a quarter of the season remaining. What has happened this season already that stands out? 

For starters, there are three repeat winners so far this season. The three of them? Álex Palou, Patricio O'Ward and Marcus Ericsson. None of them had an IndyCar victory between them prior to this season. Now they have a combined six victories more than the rest of the IndyCar grid combined this season. 

Palou and Ericsson each have two victories while Scott Dixon has one victory. Dixon has not had a teammate score more victories than him in a season since Dario Franchitti won four races to Dixon's two in 2011. 

Ericsson has won two races, both on street courses and both times he has started outside the top ten. He is one of 35 drivers to win multiple races from a starting position outside the top ten in IndyCar history and Ericsson is now one of five drivers to win multiple street course races from a starting position outside the top ten. The others are Sébastien Bourdais, who has done it three times, Will Power, Michael Andretti and Mike Conway.

There have been three winners from starting positions outside the top ten this season, all of them on street courses. There were only four races won from outside the top ten in the previous three season, only one of those was on a street course. 

Prior to this three-race street course stretch, the last three street courses won from outside the top ten were all Sébastien Bourdais victories (Belle Isle 2016 from 13th, St. Petersburg 2017 from 21st and St. Petersburg 2018 from 14th).

We are 11 races into the 2021 season and Team Penske has yet to have multiple top five finishers this season. Nashville was the second time in five races Team Penske did not have a top five finisher. 

We are 11 races into the 2021 season and Andretti Autosport has had multiple top five finishers in only one race, the most recent race in Nashville. James Hinchcliffe was third and Ryan Hunter-Reay was fourth and those drivers are 17th and 15th in the championship respectively. 

Prior to Hinchcliffe's third-place finish at Nashville, Colton Herta and Alexander Rossi had each been the top Andretti finisher in five races apiece.

Eight of the championship top ten have multiple podium finishes. The two exceptions? Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing's Graham Rahal, who has one podium finish, and Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing's Takuma Sato, whose only top five finish was a fourth in the first Belle Isle race. 

Nashville was the first time Simon Pagenaud was the top Team Penske driver in qualifying this season. Nashville was the 11th race. Before Nashville, the most recent time Pagenaud was the top Penske qualifier was the second Mid-Ohio race last year, the 11th race of the 2020 season. That Mid-Ohio race was the only time Pagenaud was the top Penske qualifier in 2020. 

Scott McLaughlin is the top driver in the championship without a lap led in 13th. The last time a driver finish at least 13th in the championship without a lap led was 2014 when Carlos Muñoz was eighth in the championship but did not lead a lap. Coincidentally, Muñoz was rookie of the year in 2014. McLaughlin currently leads the rookie of the year standings. 

Combination Weekend

Joining IndyCar on the IMS road course are NASCAR's top two series and like IndyCar, both are getting toward the tail end of their seasons. 

In the Cup Series, Indianapolis marks the antepenultimate round of the regular season with only Michigan and Daytona remaining before the playoffs start.

Kyle Larson has been the man on top this year in the Cup Series. Larson leads with five victories, including last week at Watkins Glen, and Larson is tied for the championship lead with Denny Hamlin on 917 points. Hamlin won seven races last year but he has not won yet in 2021 despite having the same number of top five and top ten finishes as Larson, and having 777 laps led, second only to Larson. 

William Byron is surprising third on points, ahead of Kyle Busch, but Byron has not had a top five finish in his last five starts. Busch has top five results in five of the last six races and seven of the last nine races. 

Joey Logano is fifth on points, but he has only one top five finish in the last seven races. Chase Elliott has two victories, both on road courses at Austin and Road America. Martin Truex, Jr. has won three races, but his most recent victory was Darlington 11 races ago and he has only three top five finishes since then. Two of those top five finishes were on road courses at Sonoma and Watkins Glen. 

Ryan Blaney has finished fifth in three of the last six races, but he has not finished better than fifth since his victory at Atlanta in March. Kevin Harvick won nine races in 2020 and through 23 races in 2021, Harvick has yet to win. Harvick had won the last two Brickyard 400s. Brad Keselwoski is tenth on points, but he had only two top five finishes in the last 12 races and only four top ten finishes in that span. 

Alex Bowman has won three races and he leads Kurt Busch, Christopher Bell, Michael McDowell and Aric Almirola as the final drivers locked into the playoffs with a race victory. Hamlin and Harvick occupy two of the currently three playoff spots going to drivers based on points. The final spot on points belongs to Tyler Reddick, who is 15 points clear of his Richard Childress Racing teammate Austin Dillon. Reddick has a 135-points gap to Chris Buescher. 

Any driver not within 120 points of the final playoff spot on points after Indianapolis will have to win one of the final two races to make the playoffs.

The Verizon 200 will take place at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday August 15. The scheduled distance is 82 laps.

In the NASCAR Xfinity Series, defending champion Austin Cindric leads with four victories and has the most points. A.J. Allmendinger and Justin Allgaier are the only other championship-eligible drivers with multiple victories. They have each won twice and sandwich Daniel Hemric, who is third in the championship and yet to win a race. Harrison Burton has yet to win in 2021 and he is just ahead of his cousin Jeb Burton, who won at Talladega, in the championship. 

Justin Haley, Noah Gragson and Brandon Jones have all yet to win in 2021 and all three had multiple victories last season. Jeremy Clements, Michael Annett and Homestead winner Myatt Snider currently hold the final three playoff spots. Riley Herbst trails Annett by 30 points for that final spot. Herbst will drive the #98 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford, which won on the IMS road course last year with Chase Briscoe. 

Ty Gibbs has won three races, including at Watkins Glen last week, but the part-time driver is not eligible for the championship. Gibbs will be back this weekend.

The Xfinity Series race will have a bunch of notable road course ringers in this race. Ryan Eversley will drive the #6 JD Motorsports Chevrolet, his Xfinity Series debut after making his Cup debut at Road America with Rick Ware Racing. One of Eversley's teammates will be Spencer Pumpelly. Sage Karam will make his series debut in the #31 Jordan Anderson Racing Chevrolet.

Andy Lally won on the IMS road course in the Grand-Am GT class in 2012 and he will drive the #78 B.J. McLeod Motorsports Chevrolet. Kevin Harvick will also be in this race and be Lally's teammate driving the #99 Ford for B.J. McLeod.

The 62-lap, 151-mile Xfinity Series race will follow the IndyCar race at 4:00 p.m. on Saturday August 14.

Fast Facts

This will be the tenth IndyCar race held on August 14 and the first since Ryan Hunter-Reay won at Loudon in 2011... yeah, that Loudon race.

Eight drivers have won on both the oval and road course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. They are Alex Lloyd, Jack Harvey, Dean Stoneman, Colton Herta, Will Power, Simon Pagenaud, Scott Dixon and Josef Newgarden.

With both NASCAR races now on the IMS road course, more drivers have a shot at becoming the ninth driver to win on both courses at IMS. A list of possible drivers who could add their names are Hélio Castroneves, Ryan Hunter-Reay, Alexander Rossi, Takuma Sato, Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, William Byron and Justin Allgaier.

Hélio Castroneves could join Will Power and Simon Pagenaud as the only drivers to win the Indianapolis 500 and an IMS road course race in the same season. 

Rinus VeeKay and Josef Newgarden are the only drivers to win at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in Indy Lights and IndyCar. VeeKay is the only driver to win on the IMS road course in both Indy Lights and IndyCar. 

Colton Herta and Jack Harvey could join VeeKay and Newgarden as Indy Lights and IndyCar winners at IMS.

Patricio O'Ward could become the first driver to win in Pro Mazda/Indy Pro 2000 and IndyCar at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Twelve competitors have at least five victories at IMS, including Michael Schumacher, Marc Márquez, Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson.

Hélio Castroneves or Simon Pagenaud could become the 13th competitor with at least five IMS victories if he wins this weekend.

Power, Busch and/or Johnson could become the sixth driver with six IMS victories joining Johnny Aitken, who won 16 races, Ray Harroun, who has eight victories, and Louis Chevrolet, Joe Dawson and Eddie Hearne are all tied on six victories.

Scott Dixon and Will Power are the only drivers to complete all 826 laps run in the ten IndyCar races at the IMS road course. 

Will Power has led 285 laps on the IMS road course. The next five drivers (Dixon, Pagenaud, Newgarden, VeeKay and Castroneves) have led a combined 290 laps on the IMS road course.

The average starting position for an IMS road course winner is 3.3 with a median of 1.5. 

The pole-sitter has won five of ten IMS road course races. The worst starting position for an IMS road course winner is eighth. 

The average number of lead changes in an IMS road course race is 8.3 with a median of 9.5.

The average number of cautions in an IMS road course race is 1.4 with a median of one. The average number of caution laps is 5.8 with a median of 3.5. 

The last four IMS road course races have had one caution or fewer. 

Possible Milestones:

Scott Dixon is one victory away from tying Mario Andretti for second all-time with 52 victories.

Scott Dixon is one podium finish away from his 125th podium finish.

Will Power is one victory away from the 40-victory milestone.

Josef Newgarden is one victory away from the 20-victory milestone and Newgarden would be the 22nd driver to reach 20 IndyCar victories. 

Josef Newgarden is one podium finish away from his 40th podium finish.

Alexander Rossi is one podium finish away from his 25th podium finish. 

Sébastien Bourdais needs to lead 38 laps to reach the 2,700 laps led milestone.

Ryan Hunter-Reay needs to lead 47 laps to reach the 1,600 laps led milestone.

James Hinchcliffe needs to lead 19 laps to reach the 800 laps led milestone.

Graham Rahal needs to lead 46 laps to reach the 500 laps led milestone.

Predictions

Colton Herta bounces back and wins on the IMS road course. Herta will lead at least 45 laps. Romain Grosjean will qualify in the top ten but not lead a lap. There will be at least two cautions and one caution will be in turn one. Jack Harvey will not throw away a top five starting position. Christian Lundgaard will qualify in the top twenty, but still be the third of the RLLR drivers. RC Enerson completes at least 84 laps. Arrow McLaren SP will have at least one driver finish in the top ten. Marcus Ericsson will not be the top Ganassi finisher. Sébastien Bourdais will not be hit from behind. Team Penske will have multiple top five finishers. At least one driver will gain more than ten positions from his starting spot. Sleeper: Graham Rahal.