Christmas is behind us, it is a Monday, this is the final week of 2021, and we should dive into another set of 2022 predictions. Our traditional post-Christmas predictions focus on Formula One, and though the 2021 season just wrapped up a little over two weeks ago, we are moving forward.
There will be plenty of changes in the 2022 season, and we are bound to see some new things next year.
1. George Russell scores at least five victories
The biggest mover this offseason is Russell heading to Mercedes from Williams. It has been a long-expected move and after his initial outing at the 2020 Sakhir Grand Prix in place of a COVID-absent Lewis Hamilton, Russell has high expectations at Mercedes.
Russell has already been doing incredible things in the weakest car on the grid. He might not have been scoring loads of points, but he was completing laps and pulling the Williams entry up the grid. In a quality car, the possibilities are endless.
Five victories are a lot, but Russell arguably should have won on his Mercedes debut. If it wasn't for a botched pit stop and a tire puncture, Russell would already have a race victory and might have already been placed in the Mercedes.
Mercedes is a great team. Valtteri Bottas did not come close to matching Hamilton's results in 2021. Hamilton did put together some breathtaking drives, some of which only he could have done. Russell might not be at that level yet, but I think he gives Mercedes essentially two number one drivers. Russell is going to score results. I don't think he will challenge Hamilton for that number one spot immediately, but he will be good and could help Mercedes' secure a ninth consecutive World Constructors' Championship.
2. Red Bull will be on the podium in fewer races
Max Verstappen not only had a championship season in 2021, Verstappen had a record-breaking season in 2021, as he finished with 18 podium finishes, the most podium finishes in a single season.
While Verstappen stood on the podium 18 times, Sergio Pérez was on the podium five times, but only one of those was without Verstappen. That was the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, which Pérez won after Verstappen had a tire failure while leading.
That means Red Bull was on the podium in 19 races. There are 23 races scheduled for 2022, meaning there will be one more chance at a podium result in 2022. However, I don't think Red Bull will match its numbers.
I don't think Verstappen will get 18 podium finishes again. Pérez was good but wasn't as strong as we all expected. He was a capable number two driver to Verstappen, but five podium finishes are an underwhelming total.
I also think Red Bull has a little hangover in 2022. There will be a new car. The team went all-in on the 2021 championship. I think the team will take a minor step back. It will still be a great team and Red Bull will win races, but I don't think it can match its 2021 output.
3. McLaren and Ferrari will each have a victory
McLaren won a race in 2021 but should have won two. Ferrari came close at Silverstone. There will be new regulations in 2022, and I think we will see a mix of results.
McLaren looked good, though it did drop off late in 2021. Meanwhile, Ferrari ended on a high note in 2021. Lando Norris was in the top five of the championship for most of the season. Daniel Ricciardo won at Monza, and he had good results, though he was second in the team. Carlos Sainz, Jr. was on the podium multiple times, including at Abu Dhabi. Charles Leclerc was regularly in the points.
I am not saying McLaren and Ferrari will be contending for the championship, but I think each team could have one race where everything lines up. They could each get two victories. McLaren had it happen at Monza this year and it nearly happened at Sochi before the rain. I think both will have that day in 2022.
4. Yuki Tsunoda will be dropped before the summer break
Tsunoda came into Formula One with a lot of excitement after a thrilling end to his 2020 Formula Two season. He scored two points in the season opener at Bahrain, but points were harder to come by than expected.
Tsunoda made many mistakes and had a few accidents. He somehow ended 2021 with a fourth in Abu Dhabi, but that result was an anomaly. With Honda exiting Formula One, Tsunoda has lost his safety blanket.
Red Bull has no tie to Tsunoda. If Tsunoda has another slow startll be quick to drop him at AlphaTauri. Pierre Gasly significantly outscored Tsunoda in 2021, and AlphaTauri finished 13 points behind Alpine. AlphaTauri can find another driver who can score an additional 14 points and be the difference between sixth or fifth in the constructors' championship.
In Tsunoda's favor could be the lack of a standout Red Bull junior driver waiting to enter Formula One. Liam Lawson is close, but not ready. Jehan Daruvala has won in Formula Two, but the overall results are not outstanding. I doubt Red Bull would go outside the box to fill the second AlphaTauri seat, but I think there will be a breaking point before the finish of the Hungarian Grand Prix.
5. Valtteri Bottas will score more points than Alfa Romeo has scored in the last two seasons combined
After a five-year stint with Mercedes, Bottas has left and will move to Alfa Romeo for the third chapter in his Formula One career.
Bottas was not adequate in Hamilton's championship fight in 2021. When Bottas was needed most, he was not there to support his teammate. However, I think Bottas is a better driver than the average guy on the grid. Alfa Romeo isn't a great team, but it had a few moments in 2021.
Between the last two seasons, Alfa Romeo has scored a combined 21 points. Bottas basically needs a point per race. That is asking a lot, but you need to have hope something changes. Bottas could head to Alfa Romeo a broken driver, and immediately fall behind Guanyu Zhou, or he could rise up and be a bright spot. I am hopeful of the latter.
6. At least three races are won from outside a top five grid position
In 2021, we had three races won from outside a top five position on the grid.
Pérez won at Azerbaijan from sixth. Esteban Ocon won at Hungary from eighth. Hamilton won at Interlagos from tenth. Before 2021, the last time three races were won from outside the top five was 2005.
With sprint qualifying potentially expanding and with the unknown of the new regulations, race results could become even more shaken up. Hamilton won from tenth after finishing fifth in the sprint race but needed to serve a penalty and lost five spots. That could happen again in 2022. We could see someone win the sprint and be dropped to sixth before coming through in the actual race.
Pieces are still moving around and after some unfathomable results in 2021, it could continue in 2022.
7. Aston Martin averages at least eight points per race
After being the overachiever of the season in 2020 as Racing Point, Aston Martin took a step back in 2021. The team dropped from fourth to seventh in the championship and it went from averaging 11.47 points per race to averaging 3.5 points per race.
That is a significant drop and there is middle ground. The team has brought in Martin Whitmarsh. Dan Fallows has left Red Bull, where he was head of aerodynamics, to become Aston Martin's technical director. It might not return to 2020 Racing Point levels, but the team should be better.
Eight points per race would be 184 points over 23 races. That pace would have been good enough for fifth in the constructors' championship in 2021. That is a big jump upward, but I don't think Sebastian Vettel has completely lost it as a driver. Lance Stroll can be a surprise at times. Aston Martin will not be anonymous for long and should at least be mixing with Alpine and AlphaTauri. I think that will happen next season.
8. There will be at least one nationality sweep of a podium
The last time a nationality swept a podium was the 1983 San Marino Grand Prix when France's Patrick Tambay won for Ferrari ahead of France's Alain Prost driving for France's Renault with France's René Arnoux in third for Ferrari. If it doesn't happen in one of the first four races of 2022, it will have been 39 years between a nationality sweep.
I think it will happen, but what country could do it?
There are only two Canadians and two Frenchmen and two Spaniards and two Germans.
And then there are three Brits. Hamilton, Russell and Norris. Two are with Mercedes, the other is with McLaren, and I think we will see a British sweep of the podium. Hamilton and Russell will be up there. Norris looked good in 2022. We are bound to get another nationality sweep in Formula One. I think it happens in 2022. Imagine if it happened at Silverstone! The Sky broadcast team would be insufferable, but the crowd would be tremendous. It would be special for all three drivers.
For those wondering, Britain has swept a Formula One podium 11 times, most recently the 1968 United States Grand Prix with Jackie Stewart winning ahead of Graham Hill and John Surtees. The United Kingdom is tied with the United States for most podium sweeps in Formula One history, but all 11 American sweeps were the 11 Indianapolis 500s between 1950 and 1960 when Indianapolis counted toward the world championship.
Besides the United States, United Kingdom and France, the only other country with a podium sweep is Italy. The last of the six Italian sweeps was the 1953 Dutch Grand Prix. Alberto Ascari won ahead of Nino Farina and Felice Bonetto.
9. Fewer than five times will a driver win races on consecutive weekends
This isn't consecutive races but consecutive race weekends when races occur on successive Sundays. Consecutive race weekends are becoming the norm in Formula One, and with the goal of a 25-race schedule, they aren't going anywhere. The season isn't going to start the first Sunday of February and end the first Sunday of December with only two months between seasons. With the fixed March start date, races will be crammed into spring, summer, and autumn.
In 2022, there are nine instances of consecutive race weekends covering 20 of 23 races! The only examples of races sandwiches between off weekends are Australia (April 10), Imola (April 24) and Miami (May 8). Those races are races three, four and five of the season! After Miami, there is no standalone races with off weekends flanking it. Every race has a partner.
There were five examples of consecutive race weekends in 2021. In four of those did a driver win on consecutive weekends. Hamilton swept Portugal and Spain. Verstappen swept France, Austria and Styria. Verstappen won Belgium and Netherlands on consecutive weekends, but he did not sweep that three-race stretch as Ricciardo won in Italy. Verstappen won in Mexico, but Hamilton won the next two races of that three-race stretch with victories in Brazil and Qatar. Hamilton and Verstappen then split Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi.
We will see drivers win consecutive races in 2022, but I don't think it will happen during all nine examples of consecutive races or even six or seven of them.
10. At least eight drivers score points in sprint qualifying
There were three sprint qualifying race weekends in 2021. Five drivers scored points out of a possible nine.
Valtteri Bottas: 7 points (scored in all three, won twice)
Max Verstappen: 7 points (scored in all three, won once)
Lewis Hamilton: 2 points (second at Silverstone)
Daniel Ricciardo: 1 point (third at Monza)
Carlos Sainz, Jr.: 1 point (third at Interlagos)
Pérez scored zero sprint points. Lando Norris scored zero sprint points. Charles Leclerc scored zero sprint points. Between the top four teams, all of them could have at least one driver score sprint points.
It will come down to the number of sprint qualifying weekends. It sounds like it will increase in 2022, but will that mean five race weekends? Ten race weekends? Twenty race weekends?
We haven't a clue.
More races mean more chances to score and more drivers will score. I think even if there are only five sprint qualifying weekends, eight is a highly probable number. It will also come down to what tracks host sprint qualifying weekends. If they are all on similar tracks, it could benefit only two teams, but if there is a mix, more teams could have a shot at those additional points.
11. Haas will score at least six points
The 2021 season was terrible for Haas, but somehow it was better than we all expected when it announced it would not develop the car over the course of the season.
Mick Schumacher fits in Formula One. Nikita Mazepin is a fish out of water.
It would be foolish to expect Haas to make any mighty strides in 2022, but the team did say it was focusing on 2022, hence its lack of development in 2021. They could put all the focus in the world in this car, but if resources are lacking it will not make any difference. The car could be better but still be slow.
Again, I will let optimism win out. If it was focusing on 2022 for all of 2021, the car should have some competitiveness in it. It might not be fighting for the podium, but it could be in the fight for tenth every third or fourth race. Williams developed a car over the last few seasons and it got into Q3 and scored points.
Six points is low. That is basically one point every four races. I think Haas can do that. I think Schumacher alone can do that.
12. There will be fewer home race winners than in 2021
There were two home winners in 2021.
Lewis Hamilton won at Silverstone. Max Verstappen won at Zandvoort.
For this prediction to be correct, one or both drivers cannot win their home race and no other driver can win at home. Hamilton can win at Silverstone, but then Verstappen cannot win at Zandvoort and vice versa.
Of course, if either Sainz, Jr. or Fernando Alonso wins the sixth round of the season in Spain, neither Hamilton nor Verstappen can win at home for this prediction to be correct.
Fourteen drivers from nine countries could win a home race in 2022. This one will be tough to get correct. We could easily see more home race winners.
Two predictions down, three to go. NASCAR is already in the bag. Tomorrow we will have
