We are at the end of another year, and it is time to look forward. The New Year is within sight, and it will not be long before motorsports series have restarted. With that being the case, we continue our annual tradition of ending the year with predictions. Like every other year, we start the five-part prediction series with NASCAR, which strangely is no longer the last championship to finish up.
1. At least four teams are represented in the semifinals of the Cup playoffs
In 2021, only three Cup teams were represented in the semifinal round of the Cup playoffs. Joe Gibbs Racing had three drivers, Team Penske had all three of its drivers make it and Hendrick Motorsports had two drivers.
In 2020, five teams were represented in the semifinal round, as was the case in 2019. There were six teams in the semifinal round in 2018. Five different teams made it in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017.
Prior to the 2021 season, at least five different teams had a representative in the semifinal round of the playoffs. We would have had four in 2021 had Kevin Harvick not gotten into the barrier at the Charlotte roval race. Instead, all three Penske entries made it.
We have seen dominance in recent seasons, whether it be Joe Gibbs Racing, Stewart-Haas Racing or Hendrick Motorsports. There is nearly an annual conversation about one team sweeping the championship four drivers, and yet we have seen a diverse mix of teams make it deep into the playoffs. In 2021, Hendrick Motorsports was that team, but two of its drivers didn't even make the semifinal round. Despite that, it feels like the most recent season was the closest we have come to it happening.
With the new car debuting in 2022, I don't think we will see the same kind of team dominance that we have seen the last few seasons. Hendrick, Gibbs, and Penske will still be great. SHR nearly had Harvick advance, and I think SHR will still be there, but this is a big chance for a team to rise above.
Brad Keselowski had bought into the Roush Fenway organization. Trackhouse has taken over the Chip Ganassi Racing operation and will field two cars. Kurt Busch has joined 23XI Racing. Richard Childress Racing had one of its better seasons in recent years in 2021 and Tyler Reddick is knocking on the door for victory.
I don't think there will be a stunner as a champion, but somebody will be much higher than anyone is expecting.
2. Kevin Harvick will have the largest positive gain in victories compared to the 2021 season
Harvick went winless in 2021 after a nine-win season in 2020. Harvick's best opportunity was the Bristol night race in September.
It was not a terrible season for Harvick. He had 24 top ten finishes behind only Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin. He was fifth in the championship. It was a difficult season, but it wasn't a disaster.
I don't think Harvick is going to be down in the gutter for a second consecutive season. I am not saying he will get back to nine victories, but he will have more than one.
To get this prediction correct, Harvick must likely win a few races and hope no one else wins more than he did in 2020. For example, if Harvick wins three races, that is a plus-three for Harvick, but if Kyle Larson wins 15 races, that is plus-five and Larson would have a larger positive gain.
It all comes down on what everyone else does. If Harvick only wins twice, he just needs no other driver to win two more races than he won in 2021. Harvick would need Chase Elliott to win fewer than four races, Martin Truex, Jr. and Alex Bowman to win fewer than six races, and so on.
3. At least four drivers win at least four pole positions in Cup
Qualifying will be back in 2022 and it has been a while.
After basically two full seasons without qualifying, we don't have quite a memory of what it was like. Some teams would hit it on qualifying and go on a tear. It will be different in 2022. The qualifying at most races will be two groups with the team top teams from those groups advancing to a final round to decide pole position.
I don't have much reasoning for this other than I think because of the format we will see a few teams get it right and roll off the truck quick on a consistent basis. A few drivers will stand out. Pole position is rarely something that one or two drivers dominate.
In 2019, three drivers had at least four pole positions and another three had three pole positions. In 2018, five drivers had at least four pole positions and another two had three pole positions. The top teams will still be on top, but Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick and/or Kyle Larson combining for at least 20-26 pole positions isn't farfetched.
4. Alex Bowman will spend at least nine races inside the top ten of most points scored
Bowman had one of the strangest seasons in NASCAR history. He won four races, tied for the second most this season and the second most at Hendrick Motorsports behind only champion Kyle Larson, and yet Bowman did not spend one day in the top ten in the championship on points.
After the first two resets he was sixth and seventh in the championship, but he was never in the top ten in the true-blue points standings. Also, even with the playoff format and the resets, he immediately fell out of the top ten in each of the first two rounds.
It was a career year for Bowman and yet it was disappointing. He set personal bests in victories, top five finishes and top ten finishes and still underperformed. That is hard to do.
In 2019, Bowman spent 21 races in the top ten on points scored. There was a large lull after a 15-race stretch from his Fontana victory in race three through the Kentucky race in mid-July. He wouldn't get back into the top ten on points until the October Talladega race, but he remained in the top ten for the final six races.
Bowman should be able to find a balance between the two seasons. From nearly 60% to 0% from 2020 to 2021, there is middle room. Nine races equal a quarter of the season. That should be the bare minimum for a Hendrick Motorsports driver that can win four races in a season. I will not necessarily say Bowman will win four races again, but he should be consistent enough that the top ten in points is not foreign territory to him.
5. Toyota will have at least five drivers win a Cup race for the second consecutive season
In 2021, Toyota had five different winners for the first time in the Cup Series since 2016. Christopher Bell, Martin Truex, Jr., Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Bubba Wallace all won a race. It was only the third time Toyota has had at least five race winners in one Cup season. The other was in 2009. It has never had more than five race winners in one Cup season.
Six winners would mean every full-time Toyota driver would win a race. It is not impossible, only unlikely. All four Gibbs drivers won in 2021, and Wallace won in 23XI Racing's debut season, but it was a rain-shortened Talladega race.
All five drivers return, and Kurt Busch will drive a second full-time 23XI entry.
We feel good about three drivers: Kyle Busch, Hamlin and Truex. The other three have serious question marks.
Bell has looked good but hasn't had the same consistency as his Gibbs teammates. His Daytona road course victory could have been good strategy of taking tires under late cautions while others tried to stretch it and use track position to get a victory. Bell could do it again on a road course, and he has had good days on short tracks, but he has yet to have a standout race where he is one of the contenders from the drop of the green flag and leads a healthy portion of laps.
Kurt Busch brings experience, but he is good for one victory a season. He figures it out, but he is not a regular challenger. He has won a race in eight consecutive seasons and eight of those are single victory seasons. He has had exactly six or seven top five finishes in six of those eight seasons, and in five consecutive seasons. It will be a new team and it could be the year Busch doesn't figure it out because everything will be new.
Wallace had good days and could find himself finishing just inside the top half of the field, but he was not a in contention for many top ten finishes. He finished the season with three top five finishes, and those were his only top ten results. There were probably only two or three other races he should have finished in the top ten.
Despite all these concerns, I think two of the three drivers of concern get a victory. I am not sure they will all win in the regular season, and I can commit to all six making the playoffs. Wallace's victory came during the playoffs after he missed anyway. But I think Toyota will have five different drivers visit victory lane.
6. At least one driver who misses the Cup playoffs has at least ten top ten finishes or more
Prior to 2021, there was only one season where a non-playoff driver had fewer than top ten finishes.
In 2014, four drivers missed the playoffs and had ten top ten finishes or more. Kyle Larson ended the season with 17 and was 17 in the championship. Clint Bowyer had 15 while Jamie McMurray and Paul Menard each. The following year, Larson and Kasey Kahne each missed the playoffs and had ten top ten finishes.
Kahne missed again in 2016 with ten top ten finishes, as did Ryan Newman. Joey Logano missed the next year with 17 top ten finishes while Erik Jones had 14, Clint Bowyer had 13 and Daniel Suárez had 12.
In 2018, Ryan Newman and Suárez missed the playoffs, but each had only nine top ten finishes. Suárez would have 11 top ten finishes in 2019 and miss the playoffs, while Jimmie Johnson had 12 top ten finishes and was on the outside. Johnson missed out again in 2020 with ten top ten finishes and Tyler Reddick also missed with 13 top ten finishes.
Matt DiBenedetto led the non-playoff drivers with nine top ten finishes in 2021 while Austin Dillon, Chris Buescher and Ross Chastain each had eight. The only other non-playoff driver with more than five top ten results was Erik Jones with six.
Why do I think this will change? One, the new car. I think we will see more even results in the middle of the field. There will be greater rotation for those final two or three spots inside the top ten. Two, I think the field has gotten better. I don't think Harrison Burton is going to be a force in 2022, but could he finish with ten top ten results? That doesn't seem crazy. Trackhouse is bringing in Ross Chastain. Chastain was only two top ten results short of ten last year. The newly renamed RFK Racing might be good but not great, and that could see Brad Keselowski miss the playoffs with 12 top ten finishes on the season or Chris Buescher having a career year and still falling short.
The final reason is because history says it will happen. In eight seasons with this format, it has happened six times. That is 75% of the time. We might see fewer drivers missing the playoffs and having at least ten top ten results on the season, but I like my odds on this one.
7. A Ford driver will not finish fifth in the Cup championship
For the last four seasons, the fifth-place driver in the Cup championship has been a Ford driver. From 2018 through 2021, those drivers have been Aric Almirola, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick and Harvick. In the four seasons before that, it was a Ford (Brad Keselowski), a Toyota (Carl Edwards) a Toyota (Matt Kenseth) and a Chevrolet (Chase Elliott).
Four consecutive years is fluky. What are the odds it will be five straight? There are plenty of great drivers in the Cup Series that can finish fifth. Ford has a good group of drivers, but not necessarily great to ensure it will lock down fifth.
We know about Harvick, but the other three SHR drivers are suspect and Almirola's fifth in 2018 is misleading. Penske could do it. Austin Cindric is the question mark for 2022, and its chances decrease when down to two options between Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano.
Ford could get a boost with Brad Keselowski moving to the Roush Fenway organization and changing the team's name to RFK Racing. Harrison Burton is joining the Wood Brothers.
Looking over the Ford lineup, on true speed, I think it has five possible playoff drivers. What are the odds one of those five finish fifth? Ford could take three of the top four in the championship. Would it really take four of the top five?
I like my chances with the field.
8. There will be at least ten four-tire pit stops under ten seconds
With NASCAR adopting single wheel nuts, pit stops are going to be quicker. No more five on, five off. It will be a one-two step, and the fewer motions should make pit stops quicker.
Time will still come down to re-fueling, but there will be times late in races where teams will just need to worry about tires, and I think we will see four-tire pit stops enter the single-digits on the stopwatch.
The tire changers still must get around the car and the jackman will still have to get it off the ground twice, but with how quick the single wheel nut goes on and off, I think we will regularly see sub-11 second pit stops and even get below ten-seconds when fuel isn't a concern.
The best way to look at it is it takes 20 motions for one tire changer to complete a pit stop in its current form. Five lug nuts off, five lug nuts on for the right-side tires, ten total moves, and then five off and five on for the left side tires, another ten moves, 20 total. With a single wheel nut, that number decreases to four motions. Off and on for the right, off and on for the left.
That is an 80% decrease. If it takes you 80% fewer steps to complete the same process, you are going to do it quicker, and I don't think it will be a minuscule improvement. It will be noticeable.
9. The ARCA pole-sitter will have a faster time than the Cup pole-sitter in at least one of the shared race weekends
This one is on the fence because we do not know how many horsepower the new car will have at the intermediate tracks. Currently, the plan is for 550hp for the intermediate racetracks and the racetracks that were 750hp last year will decrease to 670hp.
Early testing results at Charlotte were not encouraging on speed, and drivers have been calling for increased horsepower, preferring 670hp at all tracks, and it sounds like NASCAR is leaning toward 670hp at every track except for Daytona, Talladega, and Atlanta, which is seeing track renovations and an increase in banking.
At the first Charlotte oval test, the fastest lap was at 175.718 mph. The ARCA pole speed in 2021 was 180.288 mph. That is a difference of 0.779 seconds. However, over the two test days held on December 15 and 17, the fastest time was 29.979 seconds, an average of 180.126 mph, which William Byron set. However, Byron was the only driver to run a lap in the 179-mph bracket, let alone the 180 mph bracket.
NASCAR is still figuring out this car. Teams were not working on qualifying set ups and were not maximizing the cars. The increase to 670hp at least gets Cup in the ballpark with ARCA, a crazy sentence I could not imagine writing five years ago.
There will be ten shared weekends with Cup and ARCA: Daytona, Phoenix, Talladega, Kansas, Charlotte, Pocono, Michigan, Watkins Glen, Kansas, and Bristol.
Cup will be faster at Daytona, Talladega, and Watkins Glen. Cup should also be quicker at Phoenix and Bristol. The tracks in question are the two Kansas races, Charlotte, Pocono, and Michigan.
If NASCAR keeps it at 550hp, then I think ARCA will be quicker multiple times, but if NASCAR does run 670hp at majority of the tracks, it makes it more likely the Cup Series will be at least quicker than ARCA. I will hold the door open that ARCA will be quicker in qualifying for one weekend.
10. Daniel Hemric will win more races but not make the championship four in the Grand National Series
Hemric finally got his first NASCAR national touring series victory in the Phoenix finale, and it earned him the NASCAR Grand National Series championship. Good. That is over.
Now, Hemric must do it again, and with how good he has been, he should get at least two victories, even with Kaulig Racing. But just because there is improvement in one area doesn't mean things will stay the same. Hemric has made the championship four in all three seasons he has been full-time in NASCAR's second division, but nothing lasts forever, and this will eventually end.
Hemric will make the playoffs, but he could run into a wall in the semifinal round and fall short, or there could be four drivers that are just plain better. Justin Allgaier had made the championship four in four of the first five seasons before falling short in 2021. In 2018, Allgaier won five races, his most in a single-season and did not make the final four.
There is also a string of new drivers entering the Grand National Series that will make things tougher for Hemric.
11. There will be a minimum of five new playoff drivers in NASCAR's second division
NASCAR's second division is top heavy, and it will get a little more top heavy in 2022.
There will likely be at least two playoff driver changes from 2021 to 2022. Austin Cindric and Harrison Burton are both moving to the Cup Series. We will see at least three changes, but we will likely see more than that.
Josh Berry will be full-time and should be going for the championship. Berry won twice in 2021, both regular season races. Berry is playoff material already. His JR Motorsports teammate Sam Mayer will also be full-time after making 18 starts in 2021. Mayer did pick up his first top five finish with a fourth in the penultimate round at Martinsville.
Ty Gibbs could be full-time. If Gibbs is full-time, he will make the playoffs, as he won four races in 2021. Gibbs should be full-time. There is no point in waiting.
Those three would fill the vacated spots, but Richard Childress Racing is returning to full-time competition with two cars for Sheldon Creed and Austin Hill. RCR has a great history of competitiveness in this series and one if not both Creed and Hill should win a race in 2021. Landon Cassill is moving to Kaulig Racing taking over the unoccupied #10 Chevrolet. Our Motorsports is rolling out three cars for Brett Moffitt, Anthony Alfredo, and Jeb Burton. Burton made the playoffs, but the other two didn't.
We are also forgetting the possibility of Brandon Brown winning one of the three regular season restrictor plate races, or Ryan Sieg or Jeremy Clements or any of the other midfield runners.
Next year will look different in NASCAR's second division. We just don't know how seismic it will be.
12. John Hunter Nemechek will win at least three races on tracks shorter than 1.5 miles
Nemechek was the best driver in the Truck series in 2021, but just fell short of the championship. He also won in the Grand National Series driving in a part-time effort for Joe Gibbs Racing. Between the two series, Nemechek won six races, three of those races were on 1.5-mile ovals and one was at Pocono.
We are not sure what Nemechek will be doing beyond his Kyle Busch Motorsports Truck responsibilities, but I am leaving the door open for this being in any of NASCAR's three national touring series, but I think Nemechek will win more on shorter tracks. His only short track victory in 2021 was the Richmond Truck race in April.
Looking at the Truck schedule, there are plenty of opportunities to win somewhere other than a 1.5-mile oval. There are in fact ten possible races out of 23 races. He should win at least five races again in the Truck series. It would not be a surprise if he won either Bristol race, pavement or dirt, Martinsville, Richmond again, Gateway, Darlington, Indianapolis Raceway Park, Phoenix, etc. Maybe he wins another race in the Grand National Series and it is at Dover or Loudon.
Nemechek will not slip in form, he will just be winning in different locations in 2022.
One set of predictions down, four to go, but the rest will wait until next week. The Christmas weekend will be off, but we will be back to predictions on Monday. Keep an eye out for the Motorsports Christmas list tomorrow.
