The Formula One season is over, and it was a long one. Twenty-races, and that was fewer than originally scheduled. This season ended in the middle of December after beginning in the middle of March. We had a championship begin on the second Sunday of spring and finish nine days before the start of winter. Easter was one week away when the first race began, and we were firmly in the Festive season when the final checkered flag waved.
Preamble aside, let's get to the predictions. How did thoughts from nearly a year ago play out?
1. Lewis Hamilton will have at least two grand slams
Wrong! In fact, there were only four occasions where the race winner also had fastest lap:
Max Verstappen in the French Grand Prix.
Verstappen in the Austrian Grand Prix.
Hamilton in the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.
Verstappen in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
Only one of those was a grand slam, and that was Verstappen in Austria, the Dutchman's first grand slam. Hamilton did lead every lap from pole position in Qatar, but Verstappen had fastest lap in that race.
But for Hamilton, he did not score a grand slam for the second consecutive season. It is the first time he has gone consecutive seasons without a grand slam driving for Mercedes.
2. Max Verstappen will finish ahead of Valtteri Bottas in the championship
Correct! Not only did Verstappen finish ahead of Bottas, he finished ahead of both Mercedes drivers on his way to winning the world championship.
Verstappen ended the season on 395.5 points, eight points more than Hamilton and 169.5 points clear of Bottas.
3. Charles Leclerc is responsible for less than 65% of Ferrari's points
Correct! Leclerc had less than half of Ferrari's points total, scoring 159 of 323.5 points. Carlos Sainz, Jr. beat Leclerc in the championship by 5.5 points.
Leclerc's share of Ferrari's championship points was 49.149%, making him and Sainz, Jr. practically equals this season and frankly that feels right.
Sainz, Jr. was on the podium in four races with a runner-up in Monaco before finishes of third in Hungary, Sochi and Abu Dhabi. Leclerc's only podium finish was a runner-up in Silverstone after Lewis Hamilton chased him down and passed Leclerc with three laps remaining.
4. Sebastian Vettel will be the top Aston Martin qualifier in at least 55% of the races
Correct! Let's look at the tape, and I am using the qualifying result for the three sprint qualifying weekends.
Bahrain: Stroll 10th to 18th (Stroll 1-0)
Imola: Stroll 10th to 13th (Stroll 2-0)
Portugal: Vettel 10th to 17th (Stroll 2-1)
Spain: Stroll 11th to 13th (Stroll 3-1)
Monaco: Vettel 8th to 13th (Stroll 3-2)
Baku: Vettel 11th to 19th* (Stroll did not set a qualifying time) (Tied 3-3)
France: Vettel 12th to 19th* (Stroll did not set a qualifying time) (Vettel 4-3)
Styrian: Stroll 10th to 14th (Tied 4-4)
Austria: Vettel 8th to 10th (Vettel 5-4)
Britain: Vettel 10th to 15th (Vettel 6-4)
Hungary: Vettel 10th to 12th (Vettel 7-4)
Belgium: Vettel 5th to 15th (Vettel 8-4)
Netherlands: Stroll 12th to 15th (Vettel 8-5)
Italy: Vettel 11th to 12th (Vettel 9-5)
Russia: Stroll 8th to 11th (Vettel 9-6)
Turkey: Stroll 9th to Vettel 11th (Vettel 9-7)
United States: Vettel 12th to 16th (Vettel 10-7)
Mexico: Vettel 11th to 20th (Vettel 11-7)
Brazil: Vettel 11th to 15th (Vettel 12-7)
Qatar: Vettel 10th to 12th (Vettel 13-7)
Saudi Arabia: Vettel 17th to 18th (Vettel 14-7)
Abu Dhabi: Stroll 13th to 15th (Vettel 14-8)
Even if you used the sprint race results for the Silverstone, Monza and Interlagos weekends, this prediction is still correct at Vettel was ahead of Stroll at Silverstone and Interlagos. Stroll did finish ahead of Vettel at Monza, but it would still finish Vettel 13-9, and Vettel would still have been the top qualified in 59% of the races.
5. McLaren gets at least one podium finish that is not because of time penalties or safety car shuffling
Correct! And I would argue all of McLaren's podium finishes were not because of time penalties or safety car shuffling.
There were a few accidents at Imola, but Lando Norris showed good pace and it got him up to third. At Monaco, Charles Leclerc failed to start the race and then Valtteri Bottas had a stuck wheel nut, but Norris again finished third. Norris started second in Austria and then finished third.
Then McLaren went 1-2 at Monza but Daniel Ricciardo was third in the sprint race, was lifted to second on the grid after Bottas went to the rear of the field, and Ricciardo took the lead at the start and led 48 of 53 laps on his way to victory. Meanwhile, Norris was third on the grid and ended up second.
It is arguable McLaren lost its best race due to a poor strategy choice at Sochi. If Norris had stopped for wet weather tires sooner in the closing stages of the race, he would have won comfortably and deservedly so, as he started on pole position and set fastest lap.
Overall, it was a good year for McLaren. The results are starting to come its way.
6. Fernando Alonso gets his best championship finish since 2014
Wrong! Alonso ended up tenth in the world championship, and that matches his 2016 championship result, meaning 2021 was not his best championship finish since his sixth in 2014.
Alonso finished with 81 points, 29 points over off ninth, where he needed to finish for this prediction to be correct. He was seven points ahead of Alpine teammate Esteban Ocon, who won the Hungarian Grand Prix. Alonso's best finish this season was third in Qatar. His only other top five result was a fourth in Hungary and he scored points in 15 of 22 races.
7. Haas will have its second-best year in terms of points scored
Wait... I wrote that? It is obviously very incorrect!
Let's see... I wrote: "This is believing Ferrari will figure out its engine, make the necessary upgrades and it with also not let Mick Schumacher's rookie season be a disaster with Haas."
The Ferrari engine was better, but Haas tanked its own season before the first race even started. Haas said it was not going to develop the car at any point this season. This prediction was made well-before Haas' declaration to punt on the 2021 season.
Was the Haas car good enough that if developed it could have scored 48 points?
No. I think a developed Haas could have gotten a few points, but I am talking single digit. It could have scored four or five points, but nothing Ferrari did was going to make Haas into a respectable outfit this season.
8. Yuki Tsunoda will score the most points for a Japanese driver in a Formula One season
Wrong! I got this one very wrong as well.
It looked good at the start with Tsunoda finishing ninth on debut and picking up two points, not quite the pace to get to at least 61 points, but a good start nonetheless. Of course, Tsunoda regularly had incidents in the first-half of the season, and we were noting his spins and off-track excursions. He did pick up six more points at Baku, still well off the necessary pace.
Tsunoda had a few good days, but two few and not as profitable as Pierre Gasly's best days. Tsunoda was sixth in Hungary, this best finish of the season, but that gave him only 18 points through 11 races. He scored two more points in Austin and then was lost in the chaos of the Abu Dhabi finale on his way to a fourth-place result, giving him 12 more points for 32 points on the season, just more than half predicted.
9. Majority of Alfa Romeo's points do not come in Italy
Correct! In fact, Alfa Romeo scored zero points in Italy.
Kimi Räikkönen was 13th and Antonio Giovinazzi was 14th in Imola. At Monza, Giovinazzi was 13th and Robert Kubica was 14th, substituting for Räikkönen, who was out with COVID-19.
Alfa Romeo did score 13 points this season, one in Monaco, one in Baku, one in Hungary, four in Sochi, four in Mexico City and two in Saudi Arabia.
10. George Russell will be ahead of Nicholas Latifi in the championship for majority of the season
Correct!
Though neither driver scored points in the Bahrain season opener, Russell was 14th while Latifi was classified in 18th, so tiebreaker to Russell. Russell was 14th in Spain and Monaco, and Latifi would not finish ahead of Russell until Baku, where Latifi was 17th and Russell was 18th, but Russell was still ahead.
Russell raised the bar with a 12th in France before finishing 11th in the Austrian Grand Prix and then 12th again at Silverstone. Latifi's best finish was 14th at Silverstone.
Then it flipped at Hungary! Latifi finished seventh and scored six points while Russell was eighth and picked up four points. Through 11 races, Russell led 10-1 with 11 races to go. However, the infamous 2021 Belgian Grand Prix flipped it back into Russell's favor. Russell was scored with a runner-up finish. He did qualify second in the wet and seeing as how no green flag laps were completed, Russell got second and scored nine points. Latifi also picked up points that day, one for finishing ninth, but the inter-Williams championship battle swung back in Russell's favor with the Brit on 13 points and Latifi on seven points.
Latifi would not score another point all season. Russell scored two in Monza and one in Sochi. Overall, Russell was ahead of Latifi after 21 of the 22 races held this season.
11. More than seven drivers score a fastest lap
Wrong!
There were seven drivers who scored a fastest lap in 2020 and seven drivers scored fastest lap in 2021.
Verstappen and Hamilton each had six fastest laps this season. Bottas had four fastest laps. Sergio Pérez had two while Pierre Gasly, Daniel Ricciardo and Lando Norris each had one fastest lap, and then there was the Belgian Grand Prix, where no driver is recognized as scoring the fastest lap because no laps were completed under green flag conditions and technically only one lap was scored to the race results.
12. There will be fewer teammates next to each other in the championship
Correct!
In 2020, technically four pairs of teammates were next to each other in the championship.
In 2021, three pairs of teammates were next to each other in the championship. Mercedes drivers were second and third, Alpine drivers were 10th and 11th, and Aston Martin drivers were 12th and 13th.
Results: Seven of 12. Not bad, could have been better. That is a wrap on revisiting predictions for 2021, but don't worry, our batch of 2022 predictions are just around the corner. No literally, they start next week.
