Our penultimate set of 2022 predictions bring us to motorcycle racing. We saw first time champions in each MotoGP and World Superbike in 2021. World Supersport had a runaway champion. MotoE went to the final set of corners and had a controversial finish. Moto2 had a good battle and Moto3 crowned a deserving champion.
What will happen in 2022? Here are 12 guesses!
MotoGP
1. Two of the top three from 2021 do not finish in the top five of the 2022 championship
That means Fabio Quartararo, Francesco Bagnaia and Joan Mir are on notice.
It is a stretch to think any of those three will fall to sixth or worse in the championship, but to think two riders will fall that far is harder to imagine. However, Marc Márquez could be back fully healthy, and based on his points per start pace in 2021, he would have been fourth in the championship if he had started all 18 races.
Franco Morbidelli was banged up for much of 2021 and moved to the factory Yamaha midseason. He was considerably equal to Quartararo when they were Petronas SRT Yamaha teammates, and Morbidelli was second in the championship in 2020. Andrea Dovizioso will be back as a full-time competitor. Brad Binder scored in 17 of 18 races last year, but his Austria victory was his only podium finish.
There are plenty of options that could shake up the top. Nothing looks the same forever. There will be movement.
2. Álex Rins will retire from three races or fewer
Rins was his own worst enemy in 2021. At times, he was quicker than his Suzuki teammate Mir, but Rins was prone to falling off the bike, retired from five races and was 20th in another. While Mir was third in the championship, Rins was 13th, and his only podium finish was second at Silverstone.
If Rins remains on the bike, I think he could be ahead of Mir in the championship. It is just that Mir doesn't make mistakes. The pressure will be on Rins in 2022. If he stays on the bike, he could be one of the riders displacing Quartararo, Bagnaia and/or Mir from the top five of the world championship.
I think Rins cleans up his act in 2022 and has a great shot of being the top Suzuki rider in the championship.
3. Aprilia scores at least 168 points in the manufactures' championship
Aprilia is taking a chance with Maverick Viñales. The Spaniard was brought into the team midseason in 2021 after Viñales was booted from Yamaha for sabotaging his own bikes.
With Viñales in the team, Aprilia did well, but Aleix Espargaró was holding his own even before Viñales. Esparagó scored points in 13 races. He was third at Aragón, and ended the season with 120 points, good enough for eighth in the championship.
If Espargaró can do that, Viñales should at least be in the same ballpark as his teammate. They might take points off each other, but they will lift Aprilia up the championship.
In the 2021 manufactures' championship, Aprilia scored 121 points, 6.722 per race. To score 168 in 2022, Aprilia would have to average eight points per race. It is a small boost, but it is something the smallest manufacture on the grid can accomplish.
4. There will be at least one story about a Valentino Rossi comeback
We love a comeback story, even if it is not happening.
When one big star retires in motorsports, they are always met with speculation of a return. Michael Schumacher retired from Ferrari, but Formula One never left him alone, and Schumacher did end up returning with Mercedes. Jimmie Johnson was gone from NASCAR for all of five minutes before people were asking when he would return for a Cup one-off. The same was true for Jeff Gordon, and Gordon did return when Dale Earnhardt, Jr. was out due to a concussion. I think sports car driver Johnny Mowlem retired for the tenth time this past autumn.
In motorsports, nobody is really done until they have expelled everything. Rossi ended 2021 with his worst season on a grand prix bike, but you know there is a subset that believes he should still be out there. Rossi is set to move on, and he wants to run more sports car races. But someone will not let it go, and if Yamaha has a rider out, someone will throw out Rossi's name as a substitute.
5. American riders combine for at least two podium finishes
The American Moto2 riders did not have the greatest season in 2021.
Joe Roberts was banged up and dropped to 13th in the championship from seventh with only two top five finishes. Cameron Beaubier was returning to the grand prix scene for the first time since running 125cc in 2009, and he did well, but the bar was low, and Beaubier was 15th in the championship with two top five finishes.
The hope is Roberts is healthy and can bounce back to at least his 2020 form. Beaubier could make a big stride in 2022, and his results were getting better late in the 2021 season. There will also be a third American on the grid next year. Sean Dylan Kelly will be Beaubier's teammate at American Racing. Kelly won the 2021 MotoAmerica Supersport championship with 12 victories. Kelly did run the 2019 Moto2 finale at Valencia, where he retired.
Kelly's focus should be completing lap and gaining experience. We know Roberts can finish on the podium, and he could get two podium finishes on his own. Beaubier could step up to a podium-caliber rider and put together a few impressive races.
6. Jordi Torres wins multiple MotoE races
Torres has won the last two MotoE championship. In those two seasons, he has won a combined two races. He has never had multiple MotoE victories in a single season.
He is a consistent rider, and he has won his championships because he hasn't made mistakes or stepped over the line. There have also only been seven races in each of the last two seasons, not many chances for victory.
With the 2022 MotoE championship ballooning to 14 races, seven doubleheaders at Jerez, Le Mans, Mugello, Assen, Finland, Austria and Misano, Torres should have three or four victories. He will have difficult competition. Dominique Aegerter is returning, as is 2019 MotoE champion Matteo Ferrari. Bradley Smith will be back in MotoE. Torres might not win a third consecutive championship, but he should set a high for victories in a season.
World Superbike
7. Toprak Razgatlioglu will be responsible for 75% or fewer of Yamaha's victories
Razgatlioglu ended Kawasaki's World Superbike dominance, but he was on his own carrying Yamaha's water in 2021.
The Turkish rider won 13 races. The other Yamaha riders combined for zero victories. Razgatlioglu is not going anywhere. He will be successful again in 2022, but he will not be the only Yamaha rider experiencing victory.
Andrea Locatelli did a good job last year as a rookie. Locatelli didn't win a race, but he was fourth in the championship with four podium finishes. Locatelli should be ready to win a few races of his own in 2022. Even if Razgatlioglu won ten races next year, if Locatelli won four races or more, this prediction would be correct. If Razgatlioglu won nine races next year, Locatelli won two and then Garrett Gerloff won once, then this prediction would be correct.
Yamaha has a few good riders and Raztaglioglu will not have all the glory for himself.
8. There will be at least three weekends without a repeat winner
In 13 race weekends last year, only twice was there not a repeat winner.
At Barcelona, Scott Redding, Jonathan Rea and Michael Ruben Rinaldi split the races. At Portimão, Razgatlioglu, Michael van der Mark and Rea split the races.
There are still 13 race weekends on the 2022 schedule, though one is a TBA and another is Phillip Island, which date has not been announced. Even if there are only 11 race weekends with the quality of the field, I think three weekends with each race having a different winner is realistic.
9. No Honda rider finishes in the top ten of the championship
Honda has not had the greatest seasons in World Superbike of late.
Since 2017, Honda has three total podium finishes. Honda has not won since Nicky Hayden won in the wet at Sepang in 2016. I don't think that is going to change in 2022.
Four Hondas are committed to the 2022 season. The factory team will have Iker Lecuona and Xavi Vierge. MIE Racing will field two Hondas for Leonardo Mercado and Hafizh Syahrin. That is not the most fearsome foursome a manufacture could put together.
Between Yamaha's lineup with Razgatlioglu, Locatelli, Getloff and Kohta Nozane; Rea and Alex Lowes on the Kawasakis, Lucas Mahias on a customer Kawasaki, Ducati entering Ruben Rinaldi and Álvaro Bautista, Philip Öttl on a customer Ducati, van der Mark and Scott Redding on the factory BMWs and Loris Baz and Michael Laverty on customer BMWs, I don't see how Honda can breakthrough ahead of four of those riders.
Honda might get a guy in 12th, but the top ten is a stretch.
10. One of the riders on the Suzuka 8 Hours overall winner will finish the WSBK season with at least four victories
This is a hope the Suzuka 8 Hours even happens.
We haven't had a Suzuka 8 Hours the last two years due to the pandemic. Prior to 2020, Suzuka attracted some top riders. Kawasaki won in 2019 with Rea, Razgatlioglu and Leon Haslam. The Yamaha factory team had won the four previous years, with Alex Lowes and Michael van der Mark on the 2017 and 2018 winning entries. Lowes was also on the 2016 winner while Bradley Smith won in 2015. Van der Mark won with Honda in 2013 and 2014.
Superbike riders frequently head to Suzuka for this midseason extracurricular. If the Suzuka 8 Hours returns in 2022, the top Superbike riders will be there, and one of the best in World Superbike will be on the winning bike.
World Supersport
11. There will be a notable complaint about the new regulations
To increase competition, World Supersport has changed its regulations, allowing "middleweight" bikes, such as the 955cc Ducati Panigale V2, the Triumph Street Triple 765 RS and the 800cc MV Agusta F3 RR, to compete against the 600cc Yamaha YZF-R6 and Kawasaki ZX-6R.
When these regulations were first trickling out, some pushed back against having to balance bikes of such different displacements. While we are seeing more Ducatis already committing to the 2022 season, I don't think this will go away quietly once the season is started. Someone will be upset about not being as competitive since the regulations changed.
12. The championship will be undecided entering the final race weekend
In 25 World Supersport Championship seasons, only eight times has the championship been undecided entering the season finale. It did just happen in 2019 when Randy Krummenacher, Federico Caricasulo and Jules Cluzel were all battling for the title. It also happened in 2017 when Lucas Mahias had a 20-point lead over Kenan Sofuoglu, despite Sofuoglu missing four of the first 11 races.
However, those are the only two championships to go down to the wire in the last decade. Only three times has the championship changed in the finale, the last time being in 2006.
With new regulations coming in, the hope is for more competition. I don't think one rider is going to dominate, and we will see a title race until the final lap of the season.
One set of predictions remain. That is IndyCar. Feel free to peruse the NASCAR, Formula One and sports car predictions.
