Sunday, June 4, 2023

First Impressions: Detroit 2023

1. We may be looking at the first championship claimed early since Sébastien Bourdais in 2007 and the first year when no championship goes to the final race since 2005. Álex Palou looks untouchable, and through seven races, Palou now has two victories after his commanding performance in the Chevrolet Detroit Grand Prix, and the Spaniard holds a 51-point lead in the championship. He didn't need double points at Indianapolis to jump out to such a lead. Palou has been ruthless.

Eighth, third, fifth, fifth, first, fourth and first. That is Palou's run of form through seven events and after a clinical performance won him the 2021 title, he is well on his way to a second Astor Cup in 2023.

Palou fought off multiple challenges from Will Power with Scott Dixon lurking in the background. The frenetic nature of the race made it appear the race would swing from Palou's control into Power's, but the middle stint on the alternate tire unwound Power's grasp. It felt like Power went a lap too long and that handed the lead back to Palou. 

A few late cautions put Palou under pressure, but he didn't break. There was a moment he went wide into turn three and it could have cost him, but he held on and ultimately took a relatively easy victory in the closing laps. 

The field should be scared because there isn't a race remaining where it looks like Palou will struggle. He doesn't have any weak spots. Road America? He easily could win there. Same with Mid-Ohio. This victory is Palou's 11th consecutive top ten finish on a street course, so Toronto he is looking at worse at a tenth-place finish. Iowa might be tough, but he could manage a pair of top five finishes. Then it is Nashville, the IMS road course where Palou has already won at, Gateway, Portland and Laguna Seca. The final two tracks he has already won at in his career.

It would be wise if we prepare for history. Palou is on a trip to making it.

2. The circuit moved from Belle Isle to downtown Detroit, but the move didn't change much for Will Power. This race was near identical for Power from last year. Last year, Power went from 16th to first. In this race, Power went from seventh to second, but Power was pushing for the lead most of the afternoon. Power had stout restarts. He lost ground after taking a bump from Scott Dixon, but Power rallied. It was too much to overcome though and second will have to do. 

It is still an impressive performance. Power hasn't started in the top five this season, which is stunning considering his qualifying ability. The race results will come, but if he is finishing second after starting seventh and finishing there with ease, Power could put on a late charge this season if he is starting more at the front.

3. Felix Rosenqvist had a physical drive to third getting around Scott Dixon and then crowding out Alexander Rossi on the move for third. Rosenqvist was in the top ten all race and spent much of it in the top five. For the past two seasons this is what we have seen from Rosenqivst. Sometimes it doesn't end up with a great result, but more times than not it is better than most and it is rather respectable. 

We all know Palou is moving to McLaren. It is a matter of does McLaren expand to four IndyCars or puts Palou in for Rosenqvist? Rosenqvist is doing a convincing job of why the team should grow to four cars. McLaren likely knows that as well.

4. Started fourth, finished fourth, that should be a good day for Scott Dixon. It is. He really wasn't in the same ballpark as Palou and Power. There was a moment where it looked like the door opened and Dixon could have gone from third to first on the one restart. Unfortunately, Dixon couldn't squeeze through. 

Back in 2021, Dixon had tough year and was rarely the top Ganassi finisher. Last year, he had more control leading the team, but through seven races in 2023 Dixon hasn't been the best Ganassi finisher in any of them, and this is happening while Dixon has three top five results and six top ten results. Every Ganassi driver is competing at a high level. Dixon is strong, but not strong enough.

5. Alexander Rossi had second for a moment and then found himself in fifth. Rossi was gifted second when Dixon and Power touched and Rosenqvist was balked. It was a grand chance for Rossi, but his car didn't have the pace on the following restart and Rosenqvist hounded Rossi, and the pass knocked Rossi off the podium and back to fifth. Fifth is good, but it second was in his fingers. 

I don't think Rosenqvist did anything wrong with that pass. It was rough, but most passes today were rough. 

6. If it wasn't for Palou's dominance I would say Kyle Kirkwood was the driver of the day. Kirkwood was plowed over at the start when Callum Ilott misjudged the breaking point. Kirkwood had to replace the rear wing, which meant an early pit stop, but the audible worked to Kirkwood's favor and he was carving his way forward with Colton Herta. They both were in the top ten after their second stops. Kirkwood had a great final stop to gain more positions and then Kirkwood was in the mix when the Power-Dixon stack up happened. He likely made the right choice to back out and not force a pass on Dixon. 

Sixth is incredible considering how Kirkwood's day started. He needs more races like this. 

7. Scott McLaughlin had an odd day. He lost some spots, he had a moment with Romain Grosjean, was out of the top ten and then McLaughlin went elbows out to get back to seventh. It isn't the day McLaughlin would have liked, especially since he stared second. These days happen. 

I don't think Grosjean did anything wrong on that incident. Grosjean was out of the pit lane and he didn't dart across the track. I think McLaughlin was wistful hoping to get to the inside and beat Grosjean to the corner. That didn't work and McLaughlin lost out. 

8. Marcus Armstrong should run the remaining three ovals for Ganassi. Armstrong was eighth today, matching his career best finish. He spent the entire race in the top ten and never lost ground. He always ended up moving forward. In five starts, Armstrong has been the top rookie finisher in all five of them. He leads the rookie championship despite missing two events. I know Takuma Sato did well at Indianapolis, but Armstrong has more of a future ahead of him. He should use Iowa and Gateway to get accustomed to ovals before next year, because Armstrong is going to be full-time next year. If Ganassi doesn't look Armstrong up while losing Palou and possibly letting Marcus Ericsson walk Ganassi should be institutionalized. Armstrong cannot be missed.

9. An unscheduled pit stop shuffled Marcus Ericsson back. Ericsson managed to recover to finish ninth. Ericsson and Palou are the two drivers to have finished in the top ten in every race this season. The problem is Palou has been clearly better. Palou has six consecutive top five finishes. Ericsson had three top five finishes. Ericsson has some work to do. 

10. It wasn't quite Josef Newgarden's weekend. His first pit stop was slow. He didn't have great pace in this one. He ended up tenth. It could have been worse. Another year and another case of the Indianapolis 500 winner not winning the next race. Better luck in 2024.

11. Colton Herta had a broken front wing for about 65% of this race and it finally came off with about six laps to go after contacting with Rinus VeeKay. Herta was a mover early. He stopped under the opening caution for the Kirkwood-Ilott incident and Herta made up a significant amount of ground. He stalled out his run when McLaughlin emerged ahead of Herta after McLaughlin's first pit stop. If Herta was able to clear McLaughlin at that point I think Herta would have challenged for the top five and avoided emerging from his second pit stop behind Agustín Canapino, who blocked Herta, damaging the front wing in the process.

After qualifying issues, to go from 24th to 11th isn't a bad day, but it must be frustrating for Herta because he has one top five finish this season and has more good results slip away from him than fall in his lap.

12. Let's breeze through the field. Devlin DeFrancesco kept his nose clean and was 12th. That is the best you can hope for from DeFrancesco. Simon Pagenaud lost spots early and basically ran around 15th the entire race. It has been such a difficult season that 13th is a good day for Pagenaud. 

13. Agustín Canapino deserved the block call. He made a few moves, nothing dangerous but definitely unsporting, however, Canapino got spots after the early incident and he held his ground. That has been the common theme for Canapino. Many inexperienced drivers are gifted spots and fall like a rock. Canapino entered this year with next to zero single-seater experience and he doesn't blink in those difficult spots. The moments are not too big for him. Armstrong keeps finishing better than Canapino but Canapino is clearly the second-best rookie of the bunch and it isn't even close. 

14. Conor Daly did nothing and finished 15th. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing did not make much progress. Christian Lundgaard was 16th and Jack Harvey was 17th. Rinus VeeKay was battling Herta for 11th, then they had the contact that finally broke off Herta's damaged wing and it knocked VeeKay down the order. VeeKay was in the top ten for a good portion of this race. Unfortunately, the result isn't there again for the Dutchman. Hélio Castroneves was 19th but even that is flattering. 

15. What a wake-up call this was for A.J. Foyt Racing? Benjamin Pedersen 20th. Santino Ferrucci 21st. Both cars three laps down. Pedersen ran over Graham Rahal after Rahal got into the barrier under caution. Pedersen wasn't doing that good anyway before that incident happened. Ferrucci got caught a lap down after Patricio O'Ward got in the barrier, but even then Ferrucci was running 22nd and was going to eventually be a lap down. Then Ferrucci and Sting Ray Robb went off battling for 21st while both drivers were multiple laps down. 

Toto, I don't think we are in Indianapolis anymore. 

16. Speaking of Sting Ray Robb, he is out of his depth. Indy Lights has produced some good talent. Robb is not one of them. I don't care that he finished second in that championship last year. Some years are weak fields and 2022 was one of them. Add insult to injury for Dale Coyne Racing, David Malukas also hit the barrier under caution, ending his race. Maybe we should cool the "Malukas to Ganassi/Penske/Andretti" comments. 

17. Romain Grosjean threw away another result. This time it was seventh. A month ago, we were talking about how Grosjean probably had the best season in IndyCar up to that point but the results didn't go his way. When the accidents continue, it stops being a good season. It was your typical street course incident, catching a bump or a curb at the wrong point and it put Grosjean in the barrier. St. Petersburg wasn't on Grosjean. He lost air on his wing at the wrong place at the wrong time at Texas, but the last two weeks cannot happen if you are Grosjean. 

We saw the frustration after the incident. We cannot ignore the first 15 years of Grosjean's career. He made mistakes and had accidents in Formula One. This is more of the same, but I get the sense the difference now is Grosjean believes in the car he is driving and feels he is a real contender while some of those Formula One accidents were trying to do more with less. It is one thing to have an accident in seventh when you think the car is only good enough for 12th. It is another thing for it to happen when in seventh and believe you should be third, fourth or fifth. 

This weekend was ripe for Grosjean to get that elusive first victory. He has shown some of the best street course pace this season, but it is hard to truly believe it is going to happen because incidents like today are too common. 

18. Graham Rahal needs this week off. The entire Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing organization needs this week off. Today wasn't terrible for Rahal. It wasn't spectacular either, but he was moving forward from 27th. If the strategy plays out, Rahal is in the top fifteen and could be sneaking into the top 12 or ten. But it is cruel to catch a bit of understeer into turn one under caution. This course was rough. The surface likely played into it. The course being an unknown likely factored as well. Rahal's dejection was hard to hear. The man has no confidence at the moment. 

19. Someone must calm Patricio O'Ward down. When things go wrong for him, O'Ward has a habit of making it worse. Today, it was a long stop due to the left rear tire not being secured on his first pit stop. O'Ward hustled to get back on the lead lap and then was over-aggressive overtaking Ferrucci into the final corner and putting the car into the barrier. 

There was a lot of time left in this race when the accident occurred, about 60 laps. O'Ward had been contending for a top five. That might have been gone, but there was still a chance to salvage a result, and O'Ward overdrove the car when the situation required patience. 

He does this too frequently. Last year at Mid-Ohio, when the car started experiencing fuel pressure issues, O'Ward lost his cool over the radio. It happened at Portland in 2021 when that race and the championship was slipping from him. He had a bad moment at St. Petersburg in 2021 when he struggled on the alternate tire. There was the IMS road course race where he plowed into Alexander Rossi prior to the start. A lot people like to compare O'Ward to a ninja, but O'Ward struggles quite often with his emotions. 

This season O'Ward has fourth top five finishes and three results outside the top fifteen and in all three of those races, O'Ward lost his temper. In all three races, he made low-percentage moves and each one cost him. He isn't going to win the championship. He is bound to make another blunder and if he isn't paying attention, Álex Palou is blunder-less. Good luck beating that.

20. Callum Ilott's day lasted all of a lap. Ilott got the braking wrong. It sucks. We need to see him get through those starts. He shows encouraging pace, but there are plenty of races where he doesn't bring the car home and most of those mistakes seem avoidable.

21. I went to Belle Isle last year, loved every moment of it, was sad it was the final year and I walked most of what was this year's course and thought it had potential but would be a tough track. It took some time for me to appreciate Belle Isle, and it is tough to accept it has been replaced for this course, but this course did a good job today. 

Credit must be given to the drivers and Firestone. Firestone produced an alternate tire that dropped off and was difficult late in a stint. The drivers also made smart moves in areas where passing wasn't encouraged but done the right way could be pulled off. Passing happened in more areas than into just the turn three hairpin. I also think the over-under move from the outside of turn three into turn four was more practically than any of us originally imagined. 

It was an active race, but the track is a step down in quality from Belle Isle. Turn one is too tight, but there is nothing else that can be done because that is how tight Rivard Street is, which is the straightaway from turns one to two. I thought turn one would be a possible passing zone and it really wasn't, likely because there was no way for two cars to fit through it. There were more passes into turn two than I imagined, so that was pleasing. 

It also looked liked outside of E Jefferson Avenue, the long straightaway, none of the course was re-paved. Some of the areas around the pit straightaway were likely ground down, but it still needs more work. The nice thing about IndyCar for any international viewer is it does provide an accurate picture of American infrastructure with its street races. It is also an accurate picture of how much IndyCar can demand a city to do for a street race.  

This race was adequate, but it could be much worse. The last thing anyone wants is a race delayed due to red flags for a track blockage, but with how the track is from turn four through turn seven there will inevitably be a pile up in that section that will require a 15 to 30-minute clean-up because three cars blocked the circuit and 15 cars had to stop. 

The unfortunate thing is there isn't much else that can be done. After seeing the streets in that area, there really aren't many other alternatives for a street circuit. This is probably as good as it can be. 

With that said, I thought the double-sided pit lane was brilliant. IndyCar was probably a little fortunate there wasn't a pit cycle under caution. That is where it could have been a mess, but it proved it could work and not cause problems. It looked good. It was resourceful considering the space IndyCar had. Credit to the organizers. 

22. The only other thing I want to say, and I mentioned this a few times last year, I think IndyCar should try one road/street course race where everyone is required to use each tire compound twice. It would automatically make the race three stops, but it would change up the strategy significantly and likely in a good way. We knew in this race nobody was going to end on the alternate compound, but if each team was required to use each compound twice, somebody would likely try it and it would add a different element to the race.

Will Power jumped to the lead on the alternate tire and looked to be in control when he got the top spot from Álex Palou on that restart in the middle of the race. Power opened up a five-second lead, but then Power's tires were gone and ten laps later Palou was back on Power's rear end. It wasn't practical to have the alternate tires last 30 laps, but imagine if someone decided to put on the alternate tires with 15 laps to go. That could provide for an intriguing finish. 

IndyCar should try it once, preferably at a street course but a road course would also work. I don't think it would be a bad thing.

23. Detroit done. May behind us. Everybody take a week off and we will re-group at Road America.