Thursday, June 1, 2023

Track Walk: Detroit 2023

The seventh round of the 2023 NTT IndyCar Series season sees the Detroit Grand Prix take place on a course never used before. Moving from Belle Isle, the race returns downtown for the first time in 32 years. The Detroit-area has hosted 46 IndyCar races between the original Renaissance Center course downtown, Belle Isle and the Michigan State Fairgrounds, a one-mile dirt oval which hosted 13 races spread over 1928 to 1957. This is Chevrolet's home game and it has won the last two Detroit Grand Prix, but Honda has won six of the last nine races held in the Motor City. Entering the seventh round of the 2023 season, Chevrolet and Honda enter leveled on victories, three apiece, and alternating victories.

Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday June 4 with green flag scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Marty Snider, Kevin Lee and Dave Burns will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
First Practice: 3:00 p.m. ET (75 minutes)
Saturday:
Second Practice: 9:05 a.m. ET (60 minutes)
Qualifying: 1:20 p.m. ET 
Sunday:
Warm-up: 10:00 a.m. ET (30 minutes)
Race: 3:30 p.m. ET (100 laps)

* - All sessions will be available live on Peacock

A New Circuit
After 30 races on Belle Isle State Park, 18 of which were held since 2012, IndyCar returns to the streets of downtown Detroit for the first time since 1991. Some of the streets will be the same, but the course used for this year's Detroit Grand Prix will be different from the one Formula One and CART used back in the 1980s and 1990s.

This course will have separate starting lines and finishing lines, just like we have seen at the Nashville street course and like we have seen at Mid-Ohio. The pit lane straightaway will feature the finish line on Franklin Street and turn one will be a left-hander heading uphill from Franklin onto Rivard Street. 

Turn two is a left from Rivard to East Jefferson Avenue, the longest straightaway on the circuit and where the start line will be located, just prior to the E Jefferson-Brush Street intersection. 

At the intersection of E Jefferson and Griswold Street will be the hairpin turn three, another left-hander, which will take the cars onto West Jefferson Avenue for a short stretch before making the first right-hand turn onto Bates Street, which will go downhill and race pass the Detroit-Windsor Tunnel entrance before another left-hand turn onto Atwater Street. 

The circuit snakes between the Renaissance Center and the banks of the Detroit River before coming up to a 90-degree left-hand turn onto St. Antoine. Located to the right on the St. Antoine straightaway will be the pit entrance, a unique two-sided pit lane with some teams pulling off to the left and others pulling off to the right to enter their pit boxes. If the cars remain on the circuit, they will come to the ninth and final corner, a 90-degree right-hander onto Franklin Street. Pit exit will be back onto Franklin Street on driver's right just after the River East Garage.

The circuit is 1.7 miles in length.

While the city is not new, this will be the fourth different street circuit used for the Detroit Grand Prix, joining the original Renaissance Center circuit along with two different courses on Belle Isle. This is only the second new street course in the last decade, joining Nashville, which made its debut on the IndyCar schedule in 2021.

When it comes to new and returning circuits on the IndyCar schedule, Marcus Ericsson won at Nashville back in 2021 in a chaotic affair. Colton Herta won the one, and to date only, IndyCar race at Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas, and Herta also won on IndyCar's return to Laguna Seca, over 15 years after its most recent race. Takuma Sato won the return event to Portland in 2018, 11 years after its most recent appearance on a schedule. Josef Newgarden was the winner of Gateway's return after a 14-year absence in 2017. Scott Dixon won a pair of returning races in 2016, first at Phoenix and then at Watkins Glen. James Hinchcliffe won the one, and to date only, IndyCar race at NOLA Motorsports Park located just outside of New Orleans. 

The Championship Picture
With the Indianapolis 500 complete, the championship can take focus for the final two-thirds of the IndyCar season. Unlike the previous nine seasons, we are not talking about how double points have shaken up the championship picture after the "500." This is the first season since 2013 in which regular points were awarded for finishing position at Indianapolis. Additional points were still awarded for the top 12 qualifiers, decreasing by a point with the pole-sitter being awarded 12. 

That pole-sitter is also our championship leader. Álex Palou entered Indianapolis the championship leader and he exited Indianapolis as the championship leader. In six of the nine seasons with double points, the championship lead changed after the "500." Palou held on with his fourth-place finish, plus 12 bonus points for pole position and an additional point for leading a lap. The Spaniard heads to Detroit on 219 points, 20 points clear of Marcus Ericsson, who moved up to second after his runner-up performance. 

Patricio O'Ward's accident dropped the Mexican down to third in the championship, 34 points off Palou. Indianapolis 500 winner Josef Newgarden moved from sixth in the championship to fourth in the championship with his victory, however, while Newgarden gained two positions in the championship, and finished three spots ahead of Palou, Newgarden only went from 43 points back to 37 points back, a six-point swing, due to Newgarden's lack of qualifying bonus points after qualifying 17th. 

Scott Dixon makes its three Chip Ganassi Racing drivers in the top five of the championship, a two-spot improvement for Dixon after Indianapolis but Dixon is 57 points back, meaning only one of the top four drivers in the championship could leave Detroit as the championship leader. The gap increases from Dixon to his fellow New Zealander Scott McLaughlin. A pair of results outside the top ten has McLaughlin down to sixth in the championship and 70 points worse than Palou. Alexander Rossi is seventh in the #7 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet, 74 points back.

Romain Grosjean dropped to eighth in the championship, 80 points off Palou with defending champion Will Power 88 points off the top spot. Both drivers made contact with the turn two barrier at Indianapolis. Colton Herta rounds out the top ten, 89 points behind Palou, after fighting back to finish ninth from an unsafe pit release where Herta made contact with Grosjean. 

Christian Lundgaard hasn't finished worse than 19th this season, and despite a trying Indianapolis 500, Lundgaard is 11th in the championship, 97 points off Palou. Kyle Kirkwood and Felix Rosenqvist are tied on 113 points, 106 points from the top, fitting, seeing as how the two drivers came together in turn two at Indianapolis. Callum Ilott is 108 points back after a recovery drive to finish 12th despite such an uncertain start to Indianapolis 500 practice. Santino Ferrucci's third place finish at Indianapolis has him tied for 15th in the championship with Rinus VeeKay 123 points from Palou.

Graham Rahal finds himself on 94 points in 17th after a difficult month of May. Rahal is ten points clear of David Malukas in 18th. Malukas has finished outside the top twenty in the last two races.

Through six races this season, the championship lead has changed three times this season between Ericsson, O'Ward and Palou. Palou's current lead of 20 points is the largest the championship lead has been then this season. 

Newgarden Looking to Buck a Trend
While Josef Newgarden has finally gotten his first Indianapolis 500 victory, Newgarden heads to Detroit wanting to do more, specifically, something that has not been done since 2000. 

The Indianapolis 500 winner has not won the following race since Juan Pablo Montoya in 2000. Montoya won the Indianapolis 500 in the Indy Racing League as a one-off entry with Chip Ganassi Racing. The following weekend, Montoya and Ganassi won the CART race at Milwaukee. The last driver to win the Indianapolis 500 and the following race while competing in the same series was Arie Luyendyk in 1997, who won Indianapolis and then the inaugural Texas race. 

Twenty-three years later and Montoya remains the most recent driver to win the race after Indianapolis. Recent history alone is not on Newgarden's side, but it is more favorable than some would think. Since 2013, the only Indianapolis 500 winner to finish in the top five in the following race was Takuma Sato in 2020 when Sato was runner-up at Gateway. However, seven of the last eight Indianapolis 500 winners did finish in the top ten in the next race, with the one exception being Hélio Castroneves in 2021 when Castroneves was a part-time driver and did not compete in the next race at Belle Isle.

While they have not won, the last 22 Indianapolis 500 winners have an average finish of 8.6 in the race following Indianapolis. Fourteen of the 22 winners had a top ten finish. 

Along with Sato in 2020, there have been three other occasions where the Indianapolis winner was runner-up in the following race. It happened in consecutive seasons in 2007 and 2008 with Dario Franchitti and Scott Dixon, both occurring at Milwaukee. Franchitti did it again in 2012, this time finishing second at Belle Isle. 

The hangover doesn't only apply to the race result but qualifying as well. None of the 22 Indianapolis 500 winners since Montoya in 2000 won pole position in the race after Indianapolis. Fittingly, Montoya won the 2000 Milwaukee race from pole position. The average starting position in the next race for those winners is in line with the average finish at 8.75. Of those 22 drivers, only six of the 22 led a lap in the race after Indianapolis and only one of those drivers led the most laps in the next race. That was Scott Dixon leading 147 laps on his way to finish second at Milwaukee in 2008. In four of those six occasions, the driver led fewer than 15 laps. 

Only twice before has Newgarden won consecutive races. The first occurred in 2017 at Toronto and Mid-Ohio. He did it last year at Texas and Long Beach. Since his victory at Long Beach last year, Newgarden has only one top five finish in the last five street course races. He has finished 17th and ninth in the two street course events held this season at St. Petersburg and Long Beach respectively. 

Newgarden had a good track record at Belle Isle. While winning the first race of the 2019 weekend, he had six top five finishes and ten top ten finishes in 18 starts. He had eight top ten finishes in the last ten Belle Isle races. With Team Penske, his average finish at Belle Isle was 6.6. 

How Are the Rookies Doing?
While the championship rightfully deserves attention after the Indianapolis 500, the Rookie of the Year battle is quite fascinating entering Detroit, and what adds to the intrigue is the top rookie wasn't even in the Indianapolis 500. 

Marcus Armstrong has only started four of the first six races, but he has finishes of 11th, eighth, 11th and 15th, and though he hasn't run either of the two oval events, Armstrong is still the leading rookie in the championship. On 77 points, Armstrong is 19th in the championship, 16 points clear of the next best rookie. Eight drivers that have started every race are behind Armstrong in the championship, including both Meyer Shank Racing entries and an Andretti Autosport entry.

In the four races Armstrong has started, he has been the top rookie finisher in all four. Outside of Barber Motorsports Park where an interference penalty relegated him to 26th on the grid, he has started 13th, 12th and 11th in the other three races. In three of those four races, the New Zealander has been the only rookie finisher in the top fifteen. He has finished on average seven positions better than the second best rookie in each race he has started this season. 

Each of the other three rookies in the field have been second-best to Armstrong in the battle of the newcomers at least once. Overall, Agustín Canapino is second amongst the rookies. Canapino was 12th in the first two races, a spot behind Armstrong at St. Petersburg and the top rookie at Texas. However, Canapino has finished outside the top twenty in the last four races. The Argentine has started outside the top twenty in five of six races with his best starting spot being 19th at Texas. Canapino is on 61 points, placing him 24th in the championship. 

Benjamin Pedersen took the honor of Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year with his 21st-place result despite being caught in a late accident. Pedersen was 15th at Texas, but his average finish through six events is 22.1667. While he has qualified 13th and 11th in the two oval races, he has started 23rd or worse on all road and street courses. The Dane has finished on the lead lap in only one race this season. He completed all 90 circuits of Barber Motorsports Park. He has finished multiple laps down in the other five events. This has Pedersen 26th in the championship on 51 points. 

Sting Ray Robb has two finishes inside the top twenty, but his best result was 16th on debut at St. Petersburg. He has finished 25th or worse in four events, including three consecutive results of 27th or worse, including a 31st at Indianapolis. The Idahoan has retired from each of the last three races. He hasn't started in the top twenty once this season. Robb's average finish this season is 24th. He has 47 points and is 27th in the championship. 

Armstrong is set to miss three more races this season unless Chip Ganassi Racing makes a change and decides to put Armstrong in the #11 Honda for the two Iowa races and Gateway in place of Takuma Sato. With only eight races left in Armstrong's season and Armstrong averaging 19.25 points per race, he is on pace for 231 points. 

At their current paces, the other three rookies are on track to earn about 173 points (Canapino), 145 points (Pedersen) and 133 points (Robb) over the final 12 races. Armstrong is the only rookie with a top ten finish this season. He was eighth at Long Beach. 

Indy Lights
After two weeks off, Indy Lights is back for its first of two doubleheader weekends this season. 

Christian Rasmussen has three top five finishes, the only driver to finish in the top five of all three races this season, and this has the Danish driver leading the Indy Lights championship with 116 points. The Barber Motorsports Park winner is 18 points ahead of Nolan Siegel. Siegel was runner-up in the first two races, but he was 13th on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course in May.

Danial Frost won the St. Petersburg season opener, but Frost is down to third on 90 points after finishes of tenth and 11th in the last two races. IMS road course winner Matteo Nannini is fourth on 84 points. Nannini was 15th in the first two races. Hunter McElrea rounds out the top five with 79 points after two top five results in the first three races.

Along with Rasmussen, Josh Green is the only driver with top ten finishes in all three races, but finishes of seventh, ninth and sixth has Green sixth on 76 points. Louis Foster and Jacob Abel are tied on 74 points. Foster was second to Nannini at Indianapolis. Abel has finished 16th and ninth after being third at St. Petersburg.

James Roe, Jr. has 69 points in ninth while Kyffin Simpson rounds out the top ten on 67 points after Simpson was third to Nannini and Foster last race. Colin Kaminsky has 65 points, two ahead of Enaam Ahmed. Christian Bogle is on 56 points. Ernie Francis, Jr. missed the Indianapolis race due to a wrist injury. Francis, Jr. has 52 points, one more than Reece Gold and Jamie Chadwick. 

Rasmus Lindh and Jagger Jones are tied on 46 points. Toby Sowery was third at Barber and he is back for Detroit driving in place for Josh Pierson who is focusing on Le Mans. 

Indy Lights will race at 12:05 p.m. ET on Saturday June 3 and at 12:50 p.m. ET on Sunday June 4. Both races are scheduled for 45 laps or 55 minutes. 

Fast Facts
This will be the 12th IndyCar race to take place on June 4 and the first since Graham Rahal won the second race of the 2017 Belle Isle doubleheader. 

That is Rahal's most recent victory, 96 starts ago.

This year's Detroit race falls on the 23rd anniversary of Juan Pablo Montoya winning at Milwaukee one week after winning the Indianapolis 500. 

Ten of the 11 IndyCar races to take place on June 4 occurred in Milwaukee or Detroit. The exception is the 2006 Watkins Glen Indy Racing League event, which Scott Dixon won. 

Emerson Fittipaldi won two of the three Detroit races that took place on the original downtown street course. Fittipaldi won in 1989 and 1991. Michael Andretti won the 1990 race. Three different teams won those events starting with Patrick Racing before Newman-Haas Racing and Team Penske won the following two years. 

Hélio Castroneves, Scott Dixon and Will Power each won three times on the Belle Isle street course. 

The average starting position of the last three Belle Isle winners was 15.667.

Josef Newgarden's victory last week from 17th at Indianapolis was the first time a winner has not started in the top four this season. It was the worst starting position for a winner since Marcus Ericsson won from 18th in the inaugural Nashville race two years ago. 

The 2021 Belle Isle doubleheader is the last time two consecutive races have been won from starting positions outside the top ten. 

Álex Palou has set fastest lap in each of the odd-numbered races this season. 

Last years, four times did the driver with fastest lap win the race (Colton Herta - Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Marcus Ericsson - Indianapolis 500, Josef Newgarden - Road America, Josef Newgarden - Gateway).

Only once has the driver with fastest lap won this year (Álex Palou - Grand Prix of Indianapolis). 

Team Penske has won every even-numbered race this season. 

Six different drivers have led the most laps in the first six races this season. 

There have been five different pole-sitters in the first six races this season.

Three of the six races this season has seen the driver who led the most laps win the race. Last year, 11 of 17 races had the drivers with the most laps led win. 

There were six different winners in the final six Belle Isle races. 

Predictions
Josef Newgarden wins the first Detroit Grand Prix on this street course and he does it from a front row starting position with an Andretti Autosport car joining him on row one. However, that Andretti Autosport car will not finish in the top five. There will be one incident on the pit lane that will look foolish and make everyone wonder why the double-sided pit lane was used. At least one of the top ten drought of four races or longer ends in Detroit. There will be at least four cautions in this race, and at least two incidents occur in turn three. There will not be a red flag though. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing will have at least one car make the second round of qualifying. Sleeper: Kyle Kirkwood.