Thursday, June 22, 2023

Let's Look at the League - June 2023

We are near the halfway point of the IndyCar season and it is an off-week, that must mean it is time to look over the hypothetical league format for IndyCar.

As you may be aware, along with the regular championship, this looks at IndyCar as if it was a sports league with weekly head-to-head matchups and the teams split into different conferences with hopes of qualifying for a playoff or trying to avoid relegation. While the lowest teams from the top league go down, the best teams from the second division move up for the next season. 

We will start with League One and look over the standings through the first eight weeks of the 14-week regular season. 

League One:

Conference 1 (Top four go to the playoffs, fifth is safe, sixth and seventh to relegated playoff, eighth is relegated)

1. #10 Ganassi 7-1
St. Petersburg: WIN (4th to #21's 21st)
Texas: WIN (3rd to #27's 27th)
Long Beach: WIN (5th to #11's 8th)
Barber: LOSS (5th to #28's 2nd)
GPOI: WIN (1st to #3's 16th)
500: WIN (4th to #12's 23rd)
Detroit: WIN (1st to #7's 5th)
Road America: WIN (1st to #21's 12th)

2. #12 Penske 5-3
St. Petersburg: WIN (7th to #11's 11th)
Texas: LOSS (16th to #28's 14th)
Long Beach: WIN (6th to #21's 26th)
Barber: WIN (3rd to #27's 12th)
GPOI: LOSS (12th to #7's 3rd)
500: LOSS (23rd to #10's 4th)
Detroit: WIN (2nd to #3's 7th)
Road America: WIN (13th to #11's 24th)

3. #27 Andretti 5-3
St. Petersburg: LOSS (15th to #7's 4th)
Texas: LOSS (27th to #10's 3rd)
Long Beach: WIN (1st to #3's 10th)
Barber: LOSS (12th to #12's 3rd)
GPOI: WIN (14th to #11's 15th)
500: WIN (28th to #28's 30th)
Detroit: WIN (6th to #21's 18th)
Road America: WIN (9th to #7's 10th)

4. #3 Penske 4-4
St. Petersburg: WIN (13th to #28's 17th)
Texas: WIN (6th to #11's 28th)
Long Beach: LOSS (10th to #27's 1st)
Barber: WIN (1st to #21's 16th)
GPOI: LOSS (16th to #10's 1st)
500: LOSS (14th to #7's 5th)
Detroit: LOSS (7th to #12's 2nd)
Road America: WIN (8th to #28's 25th)

5. #7 McLaren 4-4
St. Petersburg: WIN (4th to #27's 15th)
Texas: LOSS (22nd to #21's 11th)
Long Beach: LOSS (22nd to #28's 2nd)
Barber: WIN (8th to #11's 11th)
GPOI: WIN (3rd to #12's 12th)
500: WIN (5th to #3's 14th)
Detroit: LOSS (5th to #10's 1st)
Road America: LOSS (10th to #27's 9th)

6. #28 Andretti 4-4
St. Petersburg: LOSS (17th to #3's 13th)
Texas: WIN (14th to #12's 16th)
Long Beach: WIN (2nd to #7's 22nd)
Barber: WIN (2nd to #10's 5th)
GPOI: WIN (11th to #21's 13th)
500: LOSS (30th to #27's 28th)
Detroit: LOSS (24th to #11's 8th)
Road America: LOSS (25th to #3's 8th)

7. #11 Ganassi 2-6
St. Petersburg: LOSS (11th to #12's 7th)
Texas: LOSS (28th to #3's 6th)
Long Beach: LOSS (8th to #10's 5th)
Barber: LOSS (11th to #7's 8th)
GPOI: LOSS (15th to #27's 14th)
500: WIN (7th to #21's 10th)
Detroit: WIN (8th to #28's 24th)
Road America: LOSS (24th to #12's 13th)

8. #21 Carpenter 1-7
St. Petersburg: LOSS (21st to #10's 4th)
Texas: WIN (11th to #7's 22nd)
Long Beach: LOSS (26th to #12's 6th)
Barber: LOSS (16th to #3's 1st)
GPOI: LOSS (13th to #28's 11th)
500: LOSS (10th to #11's 7th)
Detroit: LOSS (16th to #27's 6th)
Road America: LOSS (12th to #10's 1st)

Conference 1 Breakdown:
Best driver in IndyCar, it shouldn't be a surprise he is the best driver in this head-to-head format. When your worst finish is eighth, you are not going to lose many head-to-head matchups. Álex Palou's only defeat came when he finished fifth and Romain Grosjean was second at Barber Motorsports Park. 

Outside of Palou, it is pretty even. Will Power has the #12 Penske entry second on tiebreaker over Kyle Kirkwood in the #27 Andretti entry, as Kirkwood has recovered from a 1-3 start to be third.

There is a four-way tie for fourth and because the #3 Penske, #7 McLaren and #28 Andretti entries are all 1-1 head-to-head, these entries are ranked based on actual championship position. 

Despite Marcus Armstrong's good form as a rookie, the #11 Ganassi entry is still only seventh. Armstrong has lost each matchup in which he finished 11th and even lost after finishing eighth at Long Beach. Naturally, he lost to Palou at Long Beach. 

Ed Carpenter Racing's rough season is showing here as well. Rinus VeeKay is on the drop zone, but only a win behind the #11 Ganassi entry with six weeks remaining. 

Conference 1 is pretty top heavy and does not have any surprises. These teams are lined up how you would expect them. There are six weeks left. It feels like everyone in the top six could make the playoffs while the #11 Ganassi entry and #21 ECR entry will be competing not to be automatically relegated. 

Conference 2 (Top four go to the playoffs, fifth is safe, sixth and seventh to relegated playoff, eighth is relegated)

1. #26 Andretti 6-2
St. Petersburg: LOSS (20th to #5's 2nd)
Texas: WIN (7th to #8's 8th)
Long Beach: WIN (4th to #9's 27th)
Barber: WIN (14th to #2's 15th)
GPOI: WIN (9th to #18's 26th)
500: WIN (9th to #60's 25th)
Detroit: WIN (11th to #15's 25th)
Road America: LOSS (5th to #5's 3rd)

2. #9 Ganassi 6-2
St. Petersburg: WIN (3rd to #60's 26th)
Texas: LOSS (5th to #18's 4th)
Long Beach: LOSS (27th to #26's 4th)
Barber: WIN (7th to #15's 17th)
GPOI: WIN (6th to 8's 8th)
500: WIN (6th to #5's 24th)
Detroit: WIN (4th to #2's 10th)
Road America: WIN (4th to #60's 14th)

3. #8 Ganassi 5-3
St. Petersburg: WIN (1st to #15's 6th)
Texas: LOSS (8th to #26's 7th)
Long Beach: WIN (3rd to  #18's 20th)
Barber: WIN (10th to #60's 18th)
GPOI: LOSS (8th to #9's 6th)
500: LOSS (2nd to #2's 1st)
Detroit: WIN (9th to #5's 26th)
Road America: WIN (6th to #15's 11th)

4. #5 McLaren 5-3
St. Petersburg: WIN (2nd to #26's 20th)
Texas: WIN (2nd to #15's 24th)
Long Beach: LOSS (17th to #60's 15th)
Barber: WIN (4th to #18's 19th)
GPOI: WIN (2nd to #2's 7th)
500: LOSS (24th to #9's 5th)
Detroit: LOSS (26th to #8's 9th)
Road America: WIN (3rd to #26's 5th)

5. #2 Penske 4-4
St. Petersburg: LOSS (17th to #18's 10th)
Texas: WIN (1st to #60's 17th)
Long Beach: WIN (9th to #15's 12th)
Barber: LOSS (15th to #26's 14th)
GPOI: LOSS (7th to #5's 2nd)
500: WIN (1st to #8's 2nd)
Detroit: LOSS (10th to #9's 4th)
Road America: WIN (2nd to #18's 27th)

6. #18 Coyne 3-5
St. Petersburg: WIN (10th to #2's 17th)
Texas: WIN (4th to #9's 5th)
Long Beach: LOSS (20th to #8's 3rd)
Barber: LOSS (19th to #5's 4th)
GPOI: LOSS (26th to #26's 9th)
500: WIN (29th to #15's DNQ)
Detroit: LOSS (23rd to #60's 13th)
Road America: LOSS (27th to #2's 2nd)

7. #60 Meyer Shank 2-6
St. Petersburg: LOSS (26th to #9's 3rd)
Texas: LOSS (17th to #2's 1st)
Long Beach: WIN (15th to #5's 17th)
Barber: LOSS (18th to #8's 10th)
GPOI: LOSS (25th to #15's 10th)
500: LOSS (25th to #26's 9th)
Detroit: WIN (13th to #18's 23rd)
Road America: LOSS (14th to #9's 4th)

8. #15 RLLR 1-7
St. Petersburg: LOSS (6th to #8's 1st)
Texas: LOSS (24th to #5's 2nd)
Long Beach: LOSS (12th to #2's 9th)
Barber: LOSS (17th to #9's 7th)
GPOI: WIN (10th to #60's 25th)
500: LOSS (DNQ to #18's 29th)
Detroit: LOSS (25th to #26's 11th)
Road America: LOSS (11th to #8's 6th)

Conference 2 Breakdown:
Unlike Conference 1, Conference 2 has a few notable differences compared to real world results. For starters, the #26 Andretti entry leads the conference. This hasn't been Colton Herta's best season, but he has had some breaks, notably having 14th be enough to win at Barber and 11th be good enough at Detroit. Not to forget mentioning Herta is on top because he defeated Scott Dixon head-to-head at Long Beach.

Herta hasn't won a race and is first. Dixon hasn't won a race and is second. It hasn't been Dixon's worst season, but it hasn't been his greatest either. He does have the dubious distinction of having a fifth-place finish be a loss because David Malukas ended up fourth at Texas. I think this encapsulates Dixon’s consistency and shows even his worst days are better than most other’s good days. 

Patricio O'Ward has the #5 McLaren entry in third as the #5 McLaren has lost its three worst finishes this season, and to make it worse, O'Ward worst finish of the season at Detroit was when faced with Marcus Ericsson head-to-head, hence why the #8 Ganassi entry is third and the #5 McLaren is fourth.

The top two teams in Conference 2 have not won a race and three of the top four haven't won, and yet an entry that has won two races is fifth! Josef Newgarden may have won at Texas and Indianapolis, but he is 4-4, thanks in part to two duds early in the season at St. Petersburg and Barber, but Newgarden was also slightly off on days where O'Ward finished second and Dixon finished fourth.

Despite not having a top fifteen finish since Texas, David Malukas has the #18 Coyne entry in sixth, and Malukas may be the lucky one of the season because he was pair with the #15 RLLR entry for the Indianapolis 500, a race the #15 RLLR entry did not qualify for, so a victory by default. 

Rightfully so, the #60 Meyer Shank entry and the #15 RLLR entry occupy the bottom two positions, but both still have plenty of time to climb out of their respective holes. 

League Two (Top three automatically promoted)

1. #6 McLaren 7-2
St. Petersburg: BYE
Texas Qualifying: WIN (1st to #78's 19th)
Texas: LOSS (26th to #55's 13th)
Long Beach: WIN (7th to #14's 11th)
Barber: WIN (9th to #29's 23rd)
GPOI: WIN (5th to #77's 18th)
500 Qualifying: WIN (3rd to #45's 31st)
500: WIN (27th to #51's 31st)
Detroit: WIN (3rd to #06's 19th)
Road America: LOSS (20th to #20's 17th)

2. #45 RLLR 7-2
St. Petersburg: LOSS (9th to #77's 5th)
Texas Qualifying: BYE
Texas: WIN (19th to #51's 25th)
Long Beach: WIN (14th to #06's 21st)
Barber: WIN (6th to #20's 25th)
GPOI: WIN (4th to #30's 20th)
500 Qualifying: LOSS (31st to #6's 3rd)
500: WIN (19th to #78's 26th)
Detroit: WIN (17th to #55's 20th)
Road America: WIN (7th to #14's 16th)

3. #77 JHR 7-3
St. Petersburg: WIN (5th to #45's 9th)
Texas Qualifying: WIN (17th to #51's 23rd)
Texas: WIN (9th to #06's 10th)
Long Beach: WIN (19th to #20's 23rd)
Barber: WIN (13th to #30's 24th)
GPOI: LOSS (18th to #6's 5th)
500 Qualifying: LOSS (28th to #78's 27th)
500: WIN (12th to #55's 21st)
Detroit: LOSS (27th to #14's 21st)
Road America: WIN (18th to #29's 23rd)

4. #20 Carpenter 6-3
St. Petersburg: WIN (14th to #55's 27th)
Texas Qualifying: LOSS (18th to #14's 14th)
Texas: WIN (13th to #29's 23rd)
Long Beach: LOSS (23rd to #77's 19th)
Barber: LOSS (25th to #45's 6th)
GPOI: WIN (19th to #51's 27th)
500 Qualifying: WIN (16th to #06's 20th)
500: BYE
Detroit: WIN (15th to #30's 18th)
Road America: WIN (17th to #6's 20th)

5. #14 Foyt 5-4
St. Petersburg: LOSS (24th to #06's 23rd)
Texas Qualifying: WIN (14th to #20's 18th)
Texas: LOSS (21st to #30's 18th)
Long Beach: LOSS (11th to #6's 7th)
Barber: WIN (20th to #78's 26th)
GPOI: WIN (23rd to #55's 24th)
500 Qualifying: BYE
500: WIN (3rd to #29's 13th)
Detroit: WIN (21st to #77's 27th)
Road America: LOSS (16th to #45's 7th)

6. #55 Foyt 5-4
St. Petersburg: LOSS (27th to #20's 14th)
Texas Qualifying: WIN (13th to #30's 28th)
Texas: WIN (15th to #6's 26th)
Long Beach: WIN (24th to #78's 25th)
Barber: BYE
GPOI: LOSS (24th to #14's 23rd)
500 Qualifying: WIN (11th to #29's 26th)
500: LOSS (21st to #77's 12th)
Detroit: LOSS (20th to #45's 17th)
Road America: WIN (21st to #51's 22nd)

7. #06 Meyer Shank 4-5
St. Petersburg: WIN (23rd to #14's 24th)
Texas Qualifying: LOSS (21st to #29's 12th)
Texas: LOSS (10th to #77's 9th)
Long Beach: LOSS (21st to #45's 14th)
Barber: WIN (21st to #51's 27th)
GPOI: BYE
500 Qualifying: LOSS (20th to #20's 16th)
500: WIN (15th to #30's 18th)
Detroit: LOSS (19th to #6's 3rd)
Road America: WIN (15th to #78's 19th)

8. #78 JHR 4-5
St. Petersburg: WIN (12th to #30's 22nd)
Texas Qualifying: LOSS (19th to #6's 1st)
Texas: BYE
Long Beach: LOSS (25th to #55's 24th)
Barber: LOSS (26th to #14's 20th)
GPOI: LOSS (21st to #29's 17th)
500 Qualifying: WIN (27th to #77's 28th)
500: LOSS (26th to #45's 19th)
Detroit: WIN (14th to #51's 22nd)
Road America: LOSS (19th to #06's 15th)

9. #51 Coyne 2-7
St. Petersburg: WIN (16th to #29's 26th)
Texas Qualifying: LOSS (23rd to #77's 17th)
Texas: LOSS (25th to #45's 19th)
Long Beach: BYE
Barber: LOSS (27th to #06's 21st)
GPOI: LOSS (27th to #20's 19th)
500 Qualifying: WIN (32nd to #30's 33rd)
500: LOSS (31st to #6's 27th)
Detroit: LOSS (22nd to #78's 14th)
Road America: LOSS (22nd to #55's 21st)

10. #29 Andretti 2-7 
St. Petersburg: LOSS (26th to #51's 16th)
Texas Qualifying: WIN (12th to #06's 21st)
Texas: LOSS (23rd to #20's 13th)
Long Beach: LOSS (16th to #30's 13th)
Barber: LOSS (23rd to #6's 9th)
GPOI: WIN (17th to #78's 21st)
500 Qualifying: LOSS (26th to #55's 11th)
500: LOSS (13th to #14's 3rd)
Detroit: BYE
Road America: LOSS (23rd to #77's 18th)

11. #30 RLLR 2-7
St. Petersburg: LOSS (22nd to #78's 12th)
Texas Qualifying: LOSS (28th to #55's 13th)
Texas: WIN (18th to #14's 21st)
Long Beach: WIN (13th to #29's 16th)
Barber: LOSS (24th to #77's 13th)
GPOI: LOSS (20th to #45's 4th)
500 Qualifying: LOSS (33rd to #51's 32nd)
500: LOSS (18th to #06's 15th)
Detroit: LOSS (18th to #20's 15th)
Road America: BYE

League Two Breakdown:
Because of the expanded size to League Two, it looks a little wonky. The #77 Juncos Hollinger entry has still yet to have its bye. 

The #6 McLaren has been one of the best this season, and it makes sense that Felix Rosenqvist is on top. I think this puts into context how Christian Lundgaard has done this season. While it has not been an easy season, the #45 RLLR entry has performed above expectation. Callum Ilott started the season well, but he has fallen down to earth. It will be curious to see if the #77 JHR entry can hang onto the final promotion spot. 

We know Conor Daly was relieved of his duties at Ed Carpenter Racing, but considering where Daly had the #20 ECR entry in the standings, maybe his season wasn't that bad. He was 5-3 before being fired, but it wasn't against the strongest competition, either way, the #20 ECR is in promotion contention. 

Both Foyt cars have been relatively competitive and are still in the fight as have been the #06 Meyer Shank entry and the #78 Juncos Hollinger entry. Meanwhile, arguably the three worst teams in IndyCar season are the bottom three in League Two, and after doing this for a handful of years, that is what we should expect to see. We should see it balance out where the teams that are regularly on top end up on top and the teams regularly at the bottom are on the bottom. There will still be occasional fluky runs of results where some teams head-to-head results are better than they actually are or worse than they actually are. Luck plays a significant role in head-to-head matchups.

Across the board, there is plenty to keep an eye on. Nothing is locked up in terms of playoff spots in League One as are the relegation spots and then the relegation playoff. There is still a lot of time for League Two for promotion as it is only in the halfway point in that season. We will follow up on the leagues in August when the playoffs are set.