Monday, June 5, 2023

Musings From the Weekend: Still Thinking About Indianapolis

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

NASCAR cannot escape Mother Nature. Mercedes put some cars on the podium. Barcelona reverted to a previous layout. World Superbike is just as predictable as Formula One at the moment. The Le Mans test day was held, and Ferrari was on top. There was an overwhelming protest in Japan that led to a changed winner. Formula E did well in Jakarta. Detroit showcased a new street course. There was heartbreak but immediate redemption. Álex Palou is clearly the man to beat in IndyCar this season, but my mind is stuck in the month of May.

Still Thinking About Indianapolis
It isn't fair to Detroit, but the past week was busy and I didn't really get a chance to sit and write more about the Indianapolis 500. This was the open time I had. In a perfect world, this would have been handled Tuesday or Wednesday, but here we are over a week later and with another race already in the books talking about Indianapolis. 

I will put the ending and race procedures aside. We will have plenty of time to talk about those, but the race itself, the results, what we saw and what it meant is what we will focus on here. Indianapolis isn't just another race with 50 points on the line for victory. It defines a team and a driver's season and legacy for better or for worse. This isn't quite second impressions but it will look at a few drivers and what they accomplished. Naturally, we start with the race winner. 

Again, I don't think Josef Newgarden's wait was as excruciating as it has been described. Waiting 12 Indianapolis 500s to win his first, either the second-longest or the longest wait depending on when you decided to revise the history book (we will talk about that later), is difficult. Newgarden has been one of the best IndyCar drivers since he entered the series and for all that he has accomplished the Indianapolis 500 was a glaring omission to his résumé while Alexander Rossi won on his Indianapolis 500 debut, Takuma Sato won it twice and Marcus Ericsson won it unexpectedly.

However, Newgarden never had one get away from him. 

His previous best finish was third in 2016, the race Rossi coasted to victory. It was a tough loss for Newgarden, but third was flattering. That was the year Townsend Bell and Ryan Hunter-Reay collided in the pit lane and took two Andretti cars out of contention. Carlos Muñoz was second and had run better than Newgarden all race. James Hinchcliffe and Hélio Castroneves led more laps. Newgarden deserved a good finish, but he wasn't the guy that had fuel mileage take 2016 away from him. If anything, Newgarden benefitted from the fuel mileage nature of that finish.

With his five laps led in 2023, Newgarden has only led 43 laps in his Indianapolis 500 career out of 2,294 laps completed. This was only the fourth time he led the Indianapolis 500. There are the 14 laps led in 2016, three led in 2018 and 21 led in 2019. He was fourth in the 2019 race and that is probably where he should have finished. Simon Pagenaud and Alexander Rossi were the top two drivers that race and they finished 1-2. 

Newgarden entered this year without that moment of heartbreak many drivers have experienced at Indianapolis. Newgarden's anguish paled in comparison to Michael Andretti or Scott Goodyear. Newgarden didn't have a "1989" moment like Al Unser, Jr. had hanging over his head when Unser Jr. won in 1992. He didn't have the close calls like Tony Kanaan. Eddie Sachs and Lloyd Ruby would like to have a word with Newgarden about heartbreak. 

Newgarden is a one-time winner but doesn't have the ones that got away from him like Scott Dixon does. For a man who waited 12 years to win this race, Newgarden didn't have many, if any, demons haunting him. 

But the waiting is the hardest part and sometimes the thing that kills you is wondering if things will ever align for you to succeed. That is likely what ate at Newgarden, especially since joining Team Penske in 2017. In his first year, Castroneves was second in the "500." In 2018, Will Power won and was at the front the entire race. Simon Pagenaud dominated the following year. In his first three years at Penske, Newgarden saw two teammates win and one come darn close, and Newgarden's finishes those years were 19th, eighth and fourth. Moving in the right direct but lightyears from glory. 

Two IndyCar championships and regular race victories in that timeframe kept Newgarden employed at Penske, but Newgarden knows Indianapolis is the ultimate feather in a Penske's driver cap. The dread of being the one Penske driver not to win this race while his teammate around him had won it would crush any driver. As strong as Newgarden is, he likely knew how painful it would be never to win especially with the opportunity given. 

Newgarden can breathe now. The elephant is off his chest. He has one. He wants a second but the first provides more relief than joy and the relief is the most rewarding. 

Five laps is all Newgarden led. It is the third-fewest for an Indianapolis 500 winner... kind of. It is technically fifth-fewest. L.L. Corum and Floyd Davis neither led a lap in the years they won as a part of co-driver teams. To make it better, neither driver ever led in their Indianapolis 500 careers. But if we go by entry, Corum's #15 Duesenberg led 24 laps with Joe Boyer behind the wheel. Davis' #16 Wetteroth-Offenhauser led 39 laps with Mauri Rose in control.

Dan Wheldon led the fewest laps in a winning entry, one in car #98 in 2011. Joe Dawson only led the final two laps in the #8 National in the 1912 race. 

Newgarden's 43 Indianapolis 500 career laps led is equal with Marcus Ericsson. Newgarden has still led fewer laps at Indianapolis than Conor Daly (47), Rinus VeeKay (57) and Felix Rosenqvist (61). 

As for Ericsson, how hard done should he feel about that finish? 

He was less than two miles from a second consecutive Indianapolis 500 victory. A fortunate series of events put him in the lead that late. Credit to Ericsson because he matched his 2022 performance, never prominently in the picture until he had to be, always in the background. It would have been fluky for him to have won this race because he had a better restart and the field never even made it back to the start/finish line on what turned out to be the penultimate restart. I think it would have been a hollow victory, a rather underwhelming way to win consecutive Indianapolis 500s. However, Ericsson was there and to lose it on an unprecedented circumstance is difficult to accept especially when Ericsson did everything right all race. 

As for the others, Santino Ferrucci has something special at Indianapolis. Of every driver to have started at least five "500s," Ferrucci has the fourth best average finish behind only Bill Holland, Ted Horn and Jimmy Murphy. Ferrucci has done it without driving for a standout team, making the most the opportunities given. If he hasn't had a moment yet in the race there is a chance he never will. He might have a special touch around that place. 

We are at an odd inflection point for the Indianapolis 500. There were nine past winners in this year's race and before the green flag waved I think we could all agree there were another nine or ten drivers that we think could someday win this race. 

Newgarden crossed his name off that list when the 500 miles were complete, but Patricio O'Ward remains, as does Álex Palou. Colton Herta has yet to have a brilliant "500," but you would think one of these years it will click for Andretti Autosport and Herta will be there. Rinus VeeKay has shown all the pace in the world but hasn't put together a complete 200 laps around the Speedway. It is his greatest flaw at the moment. As long as Scott McLaughlin is at Team Penske, McLaughlin will have chance. 

There is also Ferrucci. If Callum Ilott ends up with a top team he will be a serious threat. It is still early for Kyle Kirkwood, but he looked impressive in his sophomore year and popped up at the right time before being caught in the Felix Rosenqvist accident. Speaking of Rosenqvist, he has been there the last two years and has come into his own at the Speedway. 

For all of the Indianapolis 500 winners in the field, majority were one-time winners. A few might be stuck on one. Tony Kanaan is leaving with one. A second looks unlikely for Ryan Hunter-Reay. But with Scott Dixon leading the way, there is also Will Power, Alexander Rossi, Simon Pagenaud, Ericsson and now Newgarden looking for two. The only multi-time "500" winner in the DW12-era is Takuma Sato. That will likely change. 

Between those nine zero-time winners and half-dozen one-time winners with a realistic shot at a second, plus throw in Hélio Castroneves and Sato for good measure, there are 17 strong candidates on the grid. This isn't even mentioning the likes of Ed Carpenter, Conor Daly, Graham Rahal, Romain Grosjean and Marco Andretti who just don't seem to have the pieces falling in place to ever win this race. There will also be more drivers coming into the series and showing up at Indianapolis who likely will have a say on how history is written. Kyle Larson makes his first attempt in 2024. 

More drivers than not never win Indianapolis. 

For every A.J. Foyt, there is an Eddie Sachs, Lloyd Ruby and Wally Dallenbach. For every Al Unser, there is a Pancho Carter, Danny Ongais and Roberto Guerrero. For every Rick Mears, there is a Kevin Cogan, Scott Goodyear and Michael Andretti. For Hélio Castroneves, I think we can add Paul Tracy, Carpenter and another Andretti that list. 

Those "oh so close" names will exist for this generation. A good number will win it, but not all. There will be plenty to celebrate. There will be more to sympathize. 

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Álex Palou, but did you know...

Max Verstappen won the Spanish Grand Prix, his fifth career victory. 

Frederik Vesti and Oliver Bearman split the Formula Two races from Barcelona. Zak O'Sullivan and Pepe Martí split the Formula Three races.

Reece Gold and Nolan Siegel split the Indy Lights races from Detroit.

Kyle Busch won the NASCAR Cup race from Gateway, his third victory of the season. Cole Custer won the Grand National Series race from Portland. Grant Enfinger won the Truck race from Gateway.

Pascal Wehrlein and Maximilian Günther split the Jakarta ePrix. 

Álvaro Bautista swept the World Superbike races from Misano. Nicolò Bulega and Stefano Manzi split the World Supersport races.

The #19 TGR Team WedsSport Bandoh Toyota of Yuji Kunimoto and Sena Sakaguchi won the Super GT race from Suzuka after the #3 NDDP Racing Nissan was handed a 60-second penalty for not completing two refueling pit stops in a red flag shortened race. The #7 BMW Team Studie x CRS BMW of Seiji Ara and Masataka Yanagida won in GT300.

The #88 AKKodis ASP Team Mercedes-AMG of Raffaele Marciello, Jules Gounon and Timur Boguslavskiy won the Circuit Paul Ricard 1000 km.

Thierry Neuville won Rally Italia Sardegna. 

Coming Up This Weekend
The centennial anniversary 24 Hours of Le Mans.
MotoGP will be at Mugello.
NASCAR has one final race weekend at Sonoma before its off week.