We are reaching the halfway point through the IndyCar team previews, and we are 44 days from the season opener in St. Petersburg. Arrow McLaren was a few laps away from winning last year's season opener. Though victory was not in the cards that day, it felt it would to be long until McLaren came out on top. However, that was never the case in 2023. There were plenty of brilliant performances but McLaren could not breakthrough for victory in what can only be described as a disappointing season. There has been a driver change as the papaya posse looks to get on the board early in 2024.
At First Glance... One of these drivers is not like the others
How the hell is David Malukas a McLaren driver?
Let's look at the raw numbers for a moment.
In his rookie season, Malukas had three top ten finishes and his best finish was second at Gateway. His average finish was 14th with an average starting position around 12.6 with seven top ten starts and he made the second round of qualifying in seven of 12 road/street course races. He was running at the finish of 14 of 17 races and he was only in three accidents all season. Malukas ended up 16th in the championship, the second best rookie, 18 points behind Rookie of the Year Christian Lundgaard.
In his sophomore season, Malukas doubled his top ten finish total to six, he was in the top five twice, both on ovals with a fourth at Texas and a third at Gateway, but Malukas also doubled his retirements, failing to finish six races, his average finish dropped to 16.353, his average starting position dropped to 15.765, and he only made the second round of qualifying at road/street courses twice. In terms of percentage of laps completed, Malukas went from 95.2% complete in 2022 to 88% in 2023. He dropped to 17th in the championship
I know many were impressed with Malukas at Gateway, and he has had some respectable drives, but is this really a McLaren quality driver?
McLaren has gone through drivers like they are going out of style since purchasing part of Schmidt Peterson Motorsports. After the high standards that saw James Hinchcliffe and Marcus Ericsson both canned when McLaren first bought into the team, Oliver Askew bounced after a fair rookie season, and had Felix Rosenqvist on the hot seat from day one, is David Malukas really the guy McLaren should have hired?
This action does not match the words coming from McLaren's brass. The Malukas hire feels like it is destined to become to McLaren what Ed Jones' one season is to Chip Ganassi Racing. I think if teams were forced to wait two months until after the season ends to hire a driver, I don't think McLaren would have taken Malukas. This was supposed to be Álex Palou's seat. Let's face it, there is a steep drop-off from Palou to Malukas.
Malukas could be a good driver, but are we really sure he is ready for this move? He isn't going to have an aging Takuma Sato and a unqualified Sting Ray Robb as teammate. Patricio O'Ward has finished in the championship top five in three of four full-time seasons and his worst season is seventh in the championship. Alexander Rossi has finished in the championship top ten in seven consecutive seasons and his worst season was 11th in the championship.
That is the standard Malukas will have to live up to, and he cannot bank on one great day at Gateway bailing him out. He will have to do it over all 17 races. He had bursts at Dale Coyne Racing, but it will take more than that to succeed at McLaren.
2023 Arrow McLaren Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 2nd (St. Petersburg, Texas, Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Gateway, Portland)
Poles: 2 (Texas, Laguna Seca)
Championship Finishes: 4th (Patricio O'Ward), 9th (Alexander Rossi), 12th (Felix Rosenqvist)
Patricio O'Ward - #5 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
154: Laps led in the first seven races of the 2023 season
33: Laps led in the final ten races of the 2023 season
6.3529: Average starting position in 2023, the best of his career
What does a championship season look like for him?
Not having an accident in the Indianapolis 500 and not having an accident after a botched pit stop in Detroit. It will also require Álex Palou not having an insanely successful season and winning three consecutive races at some point while not finishing worse than eighth all season. O'Ward must breakthrough and win a few races.
O'Ward had seven podium finishes last season, a healthy amount and in some seasons the total of champion driver. However, it does require getting those ten extra points, the difference between first and second, a few times and also being a slight step better even on good days.
O'Ward closed out the 2023 season with ten consecutive top ten results, but there was a five-race span over the summer where he finished eighth, eighth, third, tenth and eighth. Not bad, but there is a gulf between good and great. Eighth is good. Good isn't enough.
For three of the last four seasons, O'Ward has done things that are championship-esque, in the realm of being the clear best, but there are pockets of misfortune that have held him back in each of those years. Taking the title will mean limiting those bad days and taking another step forward.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
The championship is absolutely possible. This is a driver who started the 2023 season with a second-place finish after leading with five to go, second after trading the lead four times in the final ten laps with a caution with a lap and a half remaining canceling any final chance for victory, 17th, fourth, second again and then leading the most laps in the Indianapolis 500 before having an accident while battling for second and still having a shot at victory.
The start to last season was on the right track toward a championship. We have seen enough results to know the pieces are all there for O'Ward to win a title, and McLaren has the resources to provide him a car good enough for the push, it is now down to all the pieces coming together.
He can do it. He might have gone winless but there would be no surprise if the rebound from that season was a four-victory season with eight podium finishes and ten top five finishes leading a serious title push that could end with him on top.
David Malukas- #6 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
10.7: Average finish in ten oval starts
15.6428: Average finish in 14 road course starts
19: Average finish in ten street course starts
What does a championship season look like for him?
The Álex Palou route. Winning on debut for the new team and immediately asserting his presence on the IndyCar grid after being openly accepted as a driver good enough to be there but not seen as a threat to the grid.
There will be lingering questions over the opening rounds if Malukas has what it takes for a full season championship run. There will be a mediocre day early that tempers all expectations, but it will be followed with strong results that cannot be ignored. A regular podium finisher is tough to dismiss, especially if he is beating his senior teammates.
It will not be flashy streaks of victories, but Malukas wins on the days he is the clear best. On the days he is not the standout, he is leading that next group and collecting points in chunks and remaining at the top of the championship though he isn't pulling away from anyone.
The end of the season falls in his favor with Gateway and the Milwaukee doubleheader making up 60% of the final five races. That is where Malukas strengthens his grip and pulls this one out. After a second and a third in his first two visits to Gateway, the third trip ends in victory. A top ten provides good insurance in Portland. He wins one of the Milwaukee races and finishes in the top five in the other and he enters Nashville with the championship lead and needing a good result to clinch it.
It is a nervy finale, but Malukas drives smart all weekends and does just enough to claim the Astor Cup.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
With a better team around him, Malukas should finish better in the championship than 16th or 17th like his first two seasons. There is still a lot we do not know about Malukas and uncertainty over who he is as a driver. We will learn immensely about him this season and we will find out if he has it or if he doesn't.
Point is, he shouldn't take a step back. McLaren should at least a step forward, but the question remains how big of a step? It is McLaren, a championship top ten finish feels like the minimum. Felix Rosenqvist, the predecessor in the #6 Chevrolet, was 12th in the championship with a pair of podium finishes last year. Malukas duplicating those results is practical, but Malukas could also be a little off that form.
It will be tough to break the top ten, but somewhere between 11th and 15th in the championship with three to five top five finishes and eight to ten top ten finishes feels like the realistic step in Malukas' first year at McLaren.
Alexander Rossi - #7 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
8: Races led in the 50 races since the start of the 2021 season
5: Of those races saw Rossi lead fewer than five laps
47.058: Percentage of lead lap finishes in 2023, the lowest of his career
99.247: Percentage of laps completed in 2023, the second highest of his career
What does a championship season look like for him?
It probably starts slowly and unassuming, like an Alexander Rossi season. Sixth, fourth, ninth, third, seventh. Nothing special but not bad. Pretty good. No one is threatened by it but most would take those results to start a season. Then he wins his second Indianapolis 500 when everyone's guard is down, everyone believes O'Ward is the McLaren driver destined to win, and then everyone acts like they were on the Alexander Rossi bandwagon from the start. We will all act unsurprised, but if we had a gun to our heads the night before the season started when asked how do we think Rossi's season would start, none of us would have come up with that as an answer.
From the championship lead, he continues to have good days, but he is Alexander Rossi and will stumble a little. Unlike other seasons, it will not be a prolonged dry spell. Rossi will recover as we get into July, win at Mid-Ohio, have his best weekend ever at Iowa and close it out with a top five finish at Toronto before the Olympic break.
Ovals will not be his strong suit, but he gets the car home with good results. He maximizes points at Portland and Nashville, wins one of those and takes the championship that feels warranted.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
We are facing a conundrum with Rossi's career because we are approaching a decade of him in IndyCar and he has failed to win a race in three of the last four seasons. It isn't that no great driver has ever gone on a lengthy slump, it is a matter of who is Rossi? A few years ago he was driver who when he won smashed the field. At the moment, he feels like a good driver who can get results but isn't quite the stone-cold killer we believed he was a few years ago.
Can he win a race? Yes. Will he win a race? It cannot be a definitive yes. He can pull out top ten finishes, but we aren't seeing the driver who could pace the field on a regular basis. He cannot finish best among his team in a vast majority of the races.
With Malukas in this team, Rossi should move into second in the fold easily. He should still be a top ten driver. If he can grow from year one at McLaren, he should be in contention more for podium finishes and top five finishes. That should help his championship position. What will remain trouble is keeping up with Patricio O'Ward. That alone can be the shortfall to a prestigious season. Slight improvement is reasonable, but three podium finishes, six top five finishes and 13 top ten finishes isn't going to make Rossi a championship driver. It likely will not get him back into the championship top five. Still good. Not quite great.
The first round of the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season will be the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg on March 10. Coverage will begin at noon on NBC and Peacock.
