Fifty-three days separate us from the IndyCar season opener from St. Petersburg. Some teams want to start the season to pick up where they left off. Other teams will want to start the season to change perceptions. Meyer Shank Racing falls in the latter group. MSR has been on a slump for over a year and a half. After hitting it big in May 2021, it has been all downhill since. A championship winning team in sports cars, MSR can't buy a top ten finish in IndyCar. With the sports car program on hiatus in 2024, all attention will be on IndyCar, and there is a need to succeed.
At First Glance... Meyer Shank Racing is in need of a leader, and it doesn't have one
Meyer Shank Racing is coming off a season where it had an average starting position of 18.617 and an average finish of 18.647. When the 2024 season begins, it will have been 343 days since its most recent top ten finish, the longest drought in IndyCar; 666 days since its most recent top five finish, the longest drought in IndyCar; and 1,015 days since its first and so far only victory, not the longest drought in IndyCar but long enough to feel like eternity.
After such results, it is understandable that a team would make a change, looking for new life and hope in new drivers. What a team needs is a leader, and it doesn't feel like MSR even has that.
That isn't meant as any disrespect to Felix Rosenqvist, a veteran of five IndyCar seasons, a past rookie of the year with a race victory to his name, but in his first 79 IndyCar starts he has only one victory, which came 58 starts ago. He stood on the podium twice last year, but he has only six trips to the rostrum in his career. He has 15 top five finishes and his top ten finish percentage is at 44.3% despite having driven for Chip Ganassi Racing and McLaren.
Rosenqvist has always been a number two driver in IndyCar, understandably so when he first joined Ganassi with Scott Dixon leading the way and the same is true when he moved to McLaren, which had found its number one driver with Patricio O'Ward. At Meyer Shank Racing, all eyes will turn to Rosenqvist for first word about setup and feel and directions on where they should go. In IndyCar, it is a position he has yet to be in.
It is a position where MSR must be sure it is being led in the right direction. The team must turnaround results and return to a more consistent state of competitiveness. It cannot afford to toil around at the back of the grid anymore. A veteran driver with pedigree is what MSR needed after the last season and a half. Rosenqvist has experience, but he has yet to establish if he is someone who can score surefire results. He will have to be it in 2024.
Whom MSR could have used was Simon Pagenaud. Pagenaud fit the description in 2022 when MSR expanded to two cars. Pagenaud was struggling prior to his Mid-Ohio accident last year, which has left the Frenchman out of competition indefinitely. What cannot be ignored is the start of Pagenaud's run at MSR. In his first ten starts he had a podium, six top ten finishes, his average finish was 10.1, he was tenth in the championship and had been as high as eighth.
It is unclear what happened in July 2022, but MSR fell off the planet returning from Toronto that year.
This could be the breakout chance Rosenqvist was waiting for and likely needed. Pushed into the number one role, it could be a chance for the Swede to take charge after always being at least second in line in his first two stops. MSR can be his team and the attention could allow him to flourish. He is really MSR's only choice.
As much love as Tom Blomqvist has been given and for all his success in the sports car world, some of which came driving for MSR, this is a mighty jump up for him in a program that is uncertain about its competitiveness. Blomqvist's cameo appearances in 2023 did not go well, not all of that was Blomqvist's fault, but he is a driver pushing a decade since he last drove an internal combustion powered single-seater. Not everyone is Robert Wickens and can pick it up like riding a bicycle, nor is everyone Scott McLaughlin and take to IndyCar like a duck to water after a lifetime in tintops. Jimmie Johnson won seven NASCAR Cup championships and yet Johnson struggled to just remain on the lead lap in IndyCar.
For Blomqvist, he will be treading water. For Rosenqvist, he must carry the weight and prove himself in a new role.
2023 Meyer Shank Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 10th (Texas)
Poles: 0
Best Start: 8th (Detroit, Iowa II)
Championship Finishes: 18th (Hélio Castroneves), 28th (Simon Pagenaud), 31st (Linus Lundqvist), 34th (Tom Blomqvist)
Felix Rosenqvist - #60 AutoNation/Sirius XM Honda
Numbers to Remember:
21: Times Rosenqvist has been the top finisher within an intra-team battle over his first 79 starts
8.7647: Average starting position in 2023, fifth best in IndyCar
14.471: Average finishing position in 2023, 13th best in IndyCar
What does a championship season look like for him?
It starts with Rosenqvist showing off the street course form he was long celebrated for prior to his arrival in IndyCar. It starts with a head-turning St. Petersburg victory followed by another impressive Long Beach victory. Two races, two victories, over 100 points just like that.
Off the back of that start, Rosenqvist drives smart, bringing the car home in the top ten, getting a top five result occasionally when the car isn't quite at that level. He doesn't have an accident in the Indianapolis 500, but he does get a top ten finish. Though he is in the top ten, it doesn't feel like he is a threat, until he wins at Detroit and has three victories in seven races.
It is all about running respectably everywhere else and taking top ten finishes when he can get them. What happens at Toronto? He wins. He will lose points elsewhere, but not in devastating totals. He is able to hold serve with good results. How is the championship season capped off? With a victory in Nashville, naturally.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Rosenqvist could bring MSR back into the top fifteen in the championship. Top ten is a stretch. Rosenqvist's longest streak of consecutive top ten finishes is four. He is not a driver that has ever gone on long runs of good results. At best, we are looking at three races on, one race off. At that rate, Rosenqvist could do something special and perform well above expectations. No one envisions him getting 12 top ten finishes this season.
It is more likely Rosenqvist ends up with six to eight top ten finish, at best. This team had one top ten finish all 2023. Expecting a six-fold improvement is asking for a lot. The bad days should remain and considering Rosenqvist's oval track record, we will not see the Swede contending at Iowa, Gateway and Milwaukee. Any finish in the top half of the field would be a good day.
There will be stretches where MSR is not mentioned. It will have its rough patches, but Rosenqvist could have a few breakthrough days.
Tom Blomqvist - #66 AutoNation/Arctic Wolf Honda
Numbers to Remember:
3: Average finish in 19 starts in DPi/GTP competition in IMSA
15.2: Average finish in 23 Formula E starts
83: Formula Three races Blomqvist and Rosenqvist competed in against one another between 2012 and 2014
What does a championship season look like for him?
In a late reversal of its decision to delay the introduction of the hybrid system to IndyCar, the series decides the hybrid system is pertinent for the 2024 season, so it decides to adopt the tried and trusted LMDh cars and IndyCar becomes a series of 15 Acura ARX-06s and 12 Cadillac V-Series.Rs.
This late change plays directly in Blomqvist's favor and with a year's worth of experience in the Acura, he thrashes the championship. Everyone is playing catchup. Blomqvist ends up winning ten of 17 races and takes one of the most lopsided championships in IndyCar history.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Many races where Blomqvist is struggling to crack the top twenty. He should be more comfortable after an offseason adjusting to the car and have a few competitive sessions, but MSR's shortcomings will be rather difficult to overcome. There will be races where he cannot quite find the pace and be trudging along at the back.
Top ten results feel out of reach. It will require many things going into Blomqvist's favor. Pure pace alone will not be enough. If there are a few races where he is around the top fifteen on speed, it gets him in the ballpark to crack the top ten through strategy or attrition. That will be his best hope this season.
The ovals will be eye-opening. The good news is Indianapolis is the only big oval. He will not have to experience Texas where he is fighting to catch his breath and losing chunks of time. It will still be exhausting at Iowa, and the tire wear will make that the longest weekend of his season. He can mostly stay out of the way at Gateway and Milwaukee while running in the final third of the field.
A few top fifteen finishes would be a good season, somewhere around three to five would be a good start. It will be a battle for Blomqvist to finish third out of the four rookie drivers, keeping in mind Ed Carpenter Racing's Christian Rasmussen is contesting only 12 of 17 races.
The first round of the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season will be the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg on March 10. Coverage will begin at noon on NBC and Peacock.
