We might be only days into 2024, and the first race of the IndyCar season still might be over two months away, but the time has come to look ahead to the 2024 season. All of autumn is behind us and winter is the countdown to the new season. Most seats are accounted for and we have reached the part of the offseason where all it feels like the only thing remaining is the waiting.
There will be some changes to driver lineups when we reach St. Petersburg in 65 days time. Juncos Hollinger Racing has shaken up half of its drivers. In its first year as a full-time two-car effort the results were good, but JHR failed to show some of its bursts of speed from 2022. Speed is not the main cause for the dismissal of Callum Ilott, but the team is hoping a little more experience will take it further up the grid in 2024.
At First Glance... Is there any reason we should believe Juncos Hollinger Racing can win a race?
Seriously? Why should we think Juncos Hollinger Racing will be in contention to win races just because it added Romain Grosjean?
The team has never finished on the podium. Last year, it had two top five finishes and three top ten finishes. As an organization it had an average finish of 17.5, had one top ten starting position and the team's average starting position was 20.617.
And adding a driver with a career average finish of 14th, who is coming off his worst season based on average finish, and has never won an IndyCar race, is all of a sudden going to lift IndyCar's smallest team to the top of the pile?
Call me a skeptic, but I don't think Grosjean alone will be enough. This team is more than just one piece away.
Also consider how few teams win in IndyCar. It is a series where any team can win, but it can be a rare occurrence. It has been over a decade since A.J. Foyt Racing has won, and it had two fully funded cars for most of that time. Dale Coyne Racing is over five years removed from its most recent victory. Meyer Shank Racing's lone victory, the 2021 Indianapolis 500, is looking more like beginner's luck with each passing day. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing has one victory in the last three seasons. Ed Carpenter Racing has one victory in the last seven seasons. Even the mighty and mouthy Arrow McLaren didn't win in 2023.
Why should we believe JHR will do it considering all we know?
There just needs to be one day, and Grosjean came close to that day with Dale Coyne Racing. He arguably should have won once with DCR. Grosjean came close to that day with Andretti Autosport. He arguably should have won at least once, if not twice, with Andretti. JHR showed bursts of qualifying speed in 2022. Those were almost nonexistent in 2023. Considering the temperament of Grosjean combined with where JHR was last year, this does not look a great match on paper.
Grosjean will not have a senior teammate besides him. As much praise Agustín Canapino earned in his rookie season for his results, his average finish was still 19.706, equal with Devlin DeFrancesco, behind Jack Harvey, who was fired three races early, and also behind Santino Ferrucci and Hélio Castroneves. Even with some development, Canapino is a long way away from being a contender.
The hope might be for something grand, but JHR needs something a little greater than hope.
2023 Juncos Hollinger Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 5th (St. Petersburg and Laguna Seca)
Poles: 0
Best Start: 8th (Portland)
Championship Finishes: 16th (Callum Ilott), 21st (Agustín Canapino)
Romain Grosjean - #77 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
13.9722: Average points per race for Callum Ilott in 36 races with Juncos Hollinger Racing.
19.0638: Average points per race for Grosjean in 47 career starts
23: Lead lap finishes in his IndyCar career.
28: Drivers who had their first career victory came in their 50th career start or later.
What does a championship season look like for him?
It starts with some impressive drives from the back to front, taking a 17th starting position and turning it into a sixth or a 15th and putting it on the podium. After a string of top ten finishes, Grosjean has his best Indianapolis 500, completes all 200 laps and takes home a respectable top ten result.
From the opening stanza of the season, JHR is able to build off the results and the qualifying pace improves, putting Grosjean into the second round of qualifying regularly and sneaking him into the Fast Six on occasion. It is in the middle third of the season where Grosjean gets his first victory of the season and it feels like a championship is practical.
Damage is limited at Iowa, but it requires another victory or two mixed in with the oval races dotting the final third of the season. Consistent top ten results turned into top five results on road and street courses gets him to Nashville with a puncher's chance at the title and JHR and Grosjean pull off the improbable with a victory in the finale to take home the Astor Cup.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Not much different from what we saw from Grosjean's first three seasons in IndyCar except fewer trips to the podium. The note about Callum Illot's top five finishes are they came on days of survival. St. Petersburg had a number of accidents, as did Laguna Seca and both were disjointed affairs. Ilott could keep his nose out of trouble and get a result. Grosjean is more known for getting his nose into trouble than avoiding it.
There will be a promising day or two where Grosjean is mixing it up with a notable name, Will Power, Alexander Rossi, Colton Herta, and Grosjean is in fifth, sixth or seventh and it feels like JHR is trending in the right direction, but there will be rough patches, and some of those will be due to Grosjean's only failings; clipping a barrier, botching a restart, etc. There will also be weekends where the team is off and everyone is frustrated.
Grosjean could increase his top ten finish total from last year and still lose positions in the championship. A year where he has four to six top ten finishes but ends up 14th to 18th in the championship is conceivable.
Agustín Canapino - #78 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
3: Times Canapino was the top JHR finisher in 2023.
0: Times Canapino was the top JHR finisher when Callum Illot did not retire from the race.
12: Starts outside the top twenty in 2023
18: Best starting position in the 2023 season
What does a championship season look like for him?
Something similar to Scott McLaughlin's sophomore season, only better. Victory and podium finishes early, but instead of having a slump in the spring and early summer, his results remain in the top ten, with a strong day at Indianapolis with perhaps some qualifying points to help pad his total.
Once we get into summer, Canapino is constantly in the top five and wins a few times. These results might have to come after some tough qualifying performances, but, like in Grosjean's best case scenario, the team is improving throughout the season.
Any championship for Canapino will come down to the final race and a tough battle with a few notable drivers. It will be a true David vs. Goliath, Cinderella story. It will likely come down to Canapino overcoming a deficit in the final race, having a few fortunate circumstances go in his favor and Canapino having one of his best days to take an unthinkable title.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
About as good as how he did last season.
Canapino could be worse in 2024, but not noticeably worse. As celebrated as Canapino's rookie season was, it was still not a very good season. For most other rookies, those results would not be something to hang your hat on. The hope would be for a giant leap forward in year two. That feels like asking a lot.
In eight of 17 races last year, he started and finished outside the top twenty. He started outside the top twenty in eight of 12 road/street course races. He had five lead lap finishes, three of which were street courses and two of those races had five cautions or more, races where he was kept in the pack.
Canapino could improve in all of those areas but gain almost no ground from where he was in the championship last season.
The one thing in Canapino's favor is he didn't get into many accidents. The only one that was because Canapino went over the edge was Indianapolis. His other retirements were Nashville, where it was a mechanical issue, and Portland, which was another mechanical failure. Canapino wasn't tearing corners off race cars on a regular basis. If you avoid doing that, you will always do slightly better than your pace. Any increase in accidents and the results will look much worse.
Looking at the 2023 results, it is difficult to imagine how Canapino is going to get four or five top ten finishes in 2024. One or two could fall his way with high attrition rates or playing the right strategy, but that is the best case scenario at the moment. Breaking the top twenty in the championship would be a good year for the Argentine in year two.
The first round of the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season will be the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg on March 10. Coverage will begin at noon on NBC and Peacock.
