We are down to 58 days until the IndyCar season opener from St. Petersburg. We turn our attention in the build up to the season toward Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. This organization really saw it all in 2023. The agony of failing to qualify for the Indianapolis 500 and uncompetitiveness at multiple races to the thrill of victory and competing at the top with multiple pole positions. The team had a driver solidly in the championship top ten and it fired a driver before the season concluded. In 2024, RLLR definitely hopes to repeat the good while eliminating all that was unpleasant the year before.
At First Glance... It is hard to envision great improvement
That is not to say RLLR will not improve in 2024, but it is unlikely the team will be in that upper echelon.
Until we see RLLR competitive on ovals, we cannot believe it has erased that deficit and can possibly contend for a championship. There isn't anything the team could do in the offseason that could really tell us it has solved the problem. It will take more than a magic bullet. No one hire or change will alater our perception after last season. RLLR is close, but so far.
For all the issues RLLR had last year, the team was able to fight for victories, and did win. The team could produce the speed, just not on a consistent enough basis. It did something Arrow McLaren did not do in 2023, and that is win. RLLR should have won more than it did in 2023. The team likely should have had two victories, which would have been even with Andretti Autosport.
In the changing makeup of IndyCar, RLLR is somewhere leading the middle and butting up on the top level. It has the pieces. Christian Lundgaard performed better than the car he had under him. For all the struggles the organization had, it didn't stop Lundgaard from spending 11 of 17 races inside the championship top ten and finishing eighth. Graham Rahal had his worst season since 2014, but he still has finished in the championship top ten in seven of the last nine seasons.
As a three-car team, RLLR is still looking to get that third piece to click. Two seasons with Jack Harvey did not produce the desired results. Enter Pietro Fittipaldi, a driver who turned a few heads in his first IndyCar foray, but that is going on six years ago. It has been three years since Fittipaldi's second IndyCar stint. He hasn't raced an open-wheel car on a road course since the 2020 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, substituting for a burned Romain Grosjean.
The team can improve from its 2023, but improvement could be its drivers finishing eighth, 11th and 15th in the championship with two victories for the team and the three drivers combining for four top ten finishes on ovals with a car advancing to the second round of qualifying for the Indianapolis 500 and the other two cars starting in the top twenty. That would be an improvement, but would not change RLLR's standing in the greater hierarchy of IndyCar.
However, if RLLR does figure out its problems on ovals, the championship top five is not out of the question, especially with Lundgaard's results. It could even sneak into the title conversation if everything goes right. I don't think we will see that in 2024, but it is not impossible.
2023 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Review
Wins: 1 (Toronto)
Poles: 3 (Both IMS road course races and Portland)
Championship Finishes: 8th (Christian Lundgaard), 15th (Graham Rahal), 24th (Jack Harvey), 33rd (Jüri Vips)
Graham Rahal - #15 United Rentals/Hendrickson Honda
Numbers to Remember:
22.8: Average finish on ovals in 2023.
13.4: Average finish on street courses in 2023.
12.285: Average finish on road courses in 2023.
What does a championship season look like for him?
The start of the season is nearly opposite from 2023.
Keep the sixth at St. Petersburg, but the woes of finishing no better than tenth in a seven-race stretch are replaced with six top ten finishes in the seven races following the opener. That includes the comeback story of the year, qualifying on the front row for the Indianapolis 500 and taking an emotional victory that fills the team with the belief it can achieve something greater in 2024.
With seven top ten finishes in the first eight races, Rahal takes the championship lead with a victory in the ninth race of the season from Mid-Ohio, and the championship push is in full effect. With a major test in Iowa following, Rahal pulls out a top five and another top ten finish to clear the first hurdle, but with three oval races remaining in the final six races.
The end of the season will be tense as all eyes and expectations will be on the fairy tale ending with a slide on the ovals. Rahal doesn't overdrive the car at Gateway nor Milwaukee, points racing but limiting the loss as title rivals claw back some points. He enters the Nashville season finale with a scant championship lead, but the team executes despite pressure throughout the weekend and relief settles over Rahal and the entire organization.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Better than 2023.
When Rahal was on it, he had respectable days. When he was off, he just couldn't go forward like he had accomplished in previous seasons. He should do better than seven finishes of 20th or worse.
It will be difficult to reclaim the spot as the best RLLR driver. Rahal will be competing for second best in the organization, but the speed should be there for Rahal to put make it two RLLR drivers in the top ten of the championship.
We are approaching seven years since Rahal's most recent victory. During that timespan, Rahal should probably have three or four victories. He likely should have won once in 2023. Life is a number's game, and if it is a number's game, Rahal should have one race go his way and end in victory sooner rather than later. RLLR has the cars to put him in that position.
A few more top five finishes and finishing in the top ten in half the races is achievable. Doing that should take him further up the championship order and possibly in the top ten.
Pietro Fittipaldi - #30 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Honda
Numbers to Remember:
19.5: Average finish in six career oval starts in IndyCar.
0: Street course starts in IndyCar.
16: Average finish in three career road course starts in IndyCar.
What does a championship season look like for him?
Absolutely stunning everyone in IndyCar.
Fittipaldi takes the spot as top RLLR driver from the jump, but if he does that it also means Lundgaard is close. We see races where Fittipaldi is sixth and Lundgaard is seventh. Fittipaldi is third and Lundgaard is sixth. Both drivers are excelling, but Fittipaldi keeps getting the edge.
The first victory feels inevitable and it comes quickly, before the Indianapolis 500. Everyone is impressed and are wondering if Fittipaldi can keep it up, but most believe he will come down to earth shortly. It looks like that is the case at the Indianapolis 500. It isn't a bad day, but it is the first race where he isn't being mentioned at a frequent basis. His final result is outside the top ten, but he avoids trouble and completes all the laps.
Just when it appears Fittipaldi is forgotten, he wins at Detroit and regains all of our attention. As the summer begins, he keeps finishing at the front and maintaining a championship lead. As we get into the oval-heavy second-half of the season, everyone will be expecting this is where Fittipaldi will falter and see someone else climb into the top spot.
This is where a Fittipaldi championship season looks identical to a Graham Rahal championship season. Fittipaldi manages to get results and limit the damage on ovals, but it means he hold a slim championship lead or be a few points off the top spot entering the finale. Nashville will require Fittipaldi beating his rivals and having a complete weekend to take what was unthinkable at the start of the season.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Top fifteen in the championship should be the goal. It isn't great, but it is better than where the #30 Honda has run over the previous two seasons. It means there are strong days where he could be contending for top five finishes, but it also accounts for races where the speed isn't quite there and Fittipaldi isn't a threat. There will be a few of those days in 2024.
Fittipaldi is neither a rookie nor new to IndyCar, but for all intended purposes he is inexperienced. There are tracks that will be quizzical to him. Street courses are where he will likely have some teething problems. If he gets a handle on them quickly, he could be fighting for top ten finishes, but those are not guarantees.
If everything clicks early for Fittipaldi, he could be second in the RLLR team order, and that could see him be a surprise top ten championship driver.
Christian Lundgaard - #45 Hy-Vee Honda
Numbers to Remember:
17.6: Average finish on ovals in 2023.
9.8: Average finish on street courses in 2023.
6: Average finish on road courses in 2023.
What does a championship season look like for him?
Honestly, doing everything he did right in 2023 and then ovals seeing a massive improvement.
Lundgaard has most of the pieces of a championship driver. It will require more top five finishes, and those come early. St. Petersburg and Long Beach are favorable results for him. That sixth-place average finish on road courses continues into 2024, and he is in the top ten at Barber Motorsports Park and he wins the Grand Prix of Indianapolis.
Off the back of those results, he has his best Indianapolis 500 finish, which is ninth and it is a rather unremarkable ninth-place finish. He spends most of the race in the middle of the field, but the team doesn't make mistakes in the closing stages and Lundgaard has confidence in the car over the closing miles, allowing him to sneak into the top ten.
With Indianapolis behind him, he makes a statement with a victory in Detroit with top five finishes following at Road America and Laguna Seca, and his has everyone wondering if Lundgaard's championship hopes are valid. He claims the home victory for RLLR at Mid-Ohio, which is crucial with Iowa, Gateway and Milwaukee ahead of him.
The ovals are a little harsher for Lundgaard. He cannot crack the top ten at Iowa, but he is on the podium in Toronto. He isn't in the top ten at Gateway, but he is on the podium at Portland. He has finishes of ninth and tenth at Milwaukee, but he claws for those results. The championship lead is not his entering the finale, but he is close. Lundgaard is within a dozen points entering the finale, where he has a dream weekend. Pole position, most laps led, victory and he snags the title by an eyelash.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Considering his road and street course results in 2023, if Lundgaard were to repeat that form in 2024, any marginal improvement on ovals could lift him into the top five of the championship.
He was 89 points outside the top five in the championship in 2023. His average points per oval race was 12.4. If he could somehow average an eighth-place finish on ovals, which pays 24 points per race, that is nearly 60 more points to his points total. If he does that and avoid some of the off days that he had on road and street courses, the top five in the championship is practical.
Last year's victory at Toronto wasn't a fluke. RLLR has proven it can compete for victories on a yearly basis. The problem is the team rarely wins multiple times in a season. It isn't inconceivable that Lundgaard could break that trend. Ovals will still be a rough spot for him and the team, but he should remain in the top ten of the championship. Repeating 2023 and finishing eighth in the championship would not be results to be ashamed about.
The first round of the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season will be the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg on March 10. Coverage will begin at noon on NBC and Peacock.
