For the 14th time the Dubai 24 Hour takes place at the crack of a New Year and breaks the slumber of winter. This twice-around-the-clock endurance race features a variety of automobiles but this preview will focus on the top class of GT3 machinery, split between A6-PRO and A6-AM. Seventeen previous overall winners are in the top class for this year's race. Between A6-PRO and A6-AM there are 23 cars representing seven manufactures.
A6-PRO
#2 Black Falcon Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Abdulaziz Al Faisal, Hubert Haupt, Yelmer Buurman, Saud Al Faisal, Adam Christodoulou
Why this car could win: This team won last year! Albeit it Saud Al Faisal replaces Gabriele Piana in the lineup. Al Faisal, Haupt and Buurman won this race together in 2015 and also had a third place finish in this race in 2017. Black Falcon has won this race four times in the last seven years. Chrisodoulou is a late addition to his car and he won four races last year in the A6-AM class running with Charlie Putman, Charles Espenlaub and Joe Foster.
Why this car won't win: Repeating is hard to do and while it has occurred twice in the short history of this event, including once with Black Falcon, it is easier said than done and there are plenty of equal competition, including its sister car.
#3 Black Falcon Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Luca Stolz, Khlaed Al Qubaisi, Jeroen Bleekemolen, Ben Keating, Manuel Metzger
Why this car could win: See above. It is Black Falcon. This team has won this race before. It seems likely one of these two cars will end up on the podium. This team has had a car on the overall podium in this race for eight consecutive years. Al Qubaisi and Bleekemolen have won this race twice. Bleekemolen, Keating and Stolz are all familiar with one another from the IMSA North American Endurance Championship races. Stolz also won the Blancpain GT Endurance Cup championship in 2018.
Why this car won't win: Its sister car. A few other cars could top this one but I think this is one of the top contenders for the overall victory.
#7 WRT Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Mohammed Saud Fahad Al Saud, Michael Vergers, Christopher Mies, Dries Vanthoor
Why this car could win: This team has won this race before. Mies has won many endurance races before. He is a two-time 24 Hours Nürburgring winner and a two-time Bathurst 12 Hour winner. Mies and Vanthoor were co-drivers in the Blancpain GT Endurance Cup last year.
Why this car won't win: It might be too top heavy with Mies and Vanthoor and I am not sure those two can carry the load.
#9 BWT Mücke Motorsport Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Markus Winkelhock, Mike-David Ortmann, Andreas Weishaupt, Stefan Mücke, Ricardo Feller
Why this car could win: Winkelhock has won the Spa 24 Hours twice and the 24 Hours Nürburgring three times. Mücke has plenty of success with the factory Aston Martin and factory Ford program.
Why this car won't win: It is a good lineup but not a great lineup.
#11 Bohemia Energy racing with Scuderia Praha Ferrari 488 GT3
Drivers: Jirí Písarík, Josef Kral, Matteo Malucelli
Why this car could win: On paper, none of these drivers standout to you but Scuderia Praha won three 24H Series races in 2017 and three in 2018. The team has skipped the Dubai 24 Hours the last two years.
Why this car won't win: It would not be a surprise at all if this car won the race. It is a deep class.
#18 V8 Racing Chevrolet Corvette C6-ZR1
Drivers: Luc Braams, Wolf Nathan, Duncan Huisman, Nicky Pastorelli, Finlay Hutchison
Why this car could win: A pretty stable lineup that we see year in and year out with the same automobile.
Why this car won't win: This team has not had much success at Dubai and the Corvette just cannot compete with the German cars.
#23 KCMG Nissian GT-R Nismo GT3
Drivers: Alexandre Imperatori, Oliver Jarvis, Edoardo Liberati, Philipp Wlazik
Why this car could win: A semi-impressive driver lineup with endurance race tested Imperatori and Jarvis. Jarvis has won at Le Mans in the LMP2 class, he was an Audi factory driver and he won the Suzuka 1000km.
Why this car won't win: A semi-unknown driver lineup with Liberati and Wlazik. Liberati won the GT Asia championship in 2016 but he does not have much endurance race experience. Wlazik has had success in Lamborghini Super Trofeo but this is another animal.
#24 GPX Racing Porsche 911 GT3 R
Drivers: Frederic Fatien, Jean-Pierre Valentini, Jordan Grogor, Nicky Pastorelli, Stuart Hall
Why this car could win: All of these drivers are 24H Series experienced drivers and have run Dubai before. Hall has experience with the factory Aston Martin driver.
Why this car won't win: The competition is too strong. This car was re-classified from an A6-AM. I am not sure it would finish ahead of the top five A6-AM finishers.
#35 KCMG Nissan GT-R Nismo GT3
Drivers: Katsumasa Chiyo, Tsugio Matsuda, Joshua Burdon, Shaun Thong, Andrea Gagliardini
Why this car could win: Matsuda is a Super GT champion, Super Formula champion and he has won in an LMP2 car in the WEC for KCMG. Chiyo has won the Bathurst 12 Hour and he was a Blancpain Endurance Cup champion. Burdon won in the Asian Le Mans Series LMP3 class with KCMG.
Why this car won't win: Similar to the other KCMG entry, half the driver lineup you are impressed with and the other half is unknown and you are not sure what to expect. Thong did win a GT Asia GT3 Pro-Am title but like Liberati, his endurance racing experience is limited.
#63 GRT Grasser Racing Team Lamborghini Huracán GT3
Drivers: Mirko Bortolotti, Christian Engelhart, Rolf Ineichen, Mark Ineichen
Why this car could win: GRT Grasser Racing Team has had plenty of endurance racing success. Bortolotti and Engelhart won the Blancpain GT Endurance Cup title in 2017 and Bortolotti and Rolf Ineichen won the GTD class last year at the 24 Hours of Daytona and last year this combination of drivers finished third overall at Dubai. Engelhart and the Ineichens won this race in 2014 driving for Stadler Motorsport.
Why this car won't win: A German manufacture has won every edition of the Dubai 24 Hour. This team could win the race. It is one of the favorites.
#66 Attempto Racing Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Patrick Kujala, Adrian Amstutz, Kelvin van der Linde, Mattia Drudi, Stanislav Minsky
Why this car could win: Van der Linde is a rising young Audi driver with a 24 Hours Nürburgring victory and an ADAC GT Masters championship. Amstutz won the Dubai 24 Hour in 2014 with Stadler Motorsport and he and Kujala were champions together in Lamborghini Super Trofeo Europe's Pro-AM class.
Why this car won't win: It is a missing a veteran. If Christopher Haase or Christopher Mies was in this car or if Audi brought René Rast or Robin Frijns and put either in this car it would be a contender for the overall victory. I think it will be up there but would not be surprised if it fell just shy.
#88 Car Collection Motorsport Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Dimitri Parhofer, Christopher Haase, Frédéric Vervisch, Rik Breukers
Why this car could win: Haase is one of Audi's best GT3 drivers and is coming off a victory in the California 8 Hours. He has two victories in the 24 Hours Nürburgring, a victory in the Spa 24 Hours and a victory in the Sepang 12 Hours. Vervisch has been good in GT3 competition but not great. He and Haase have experience together as co-drivers.
Why this car won't win: This isn't even the best Audi with a driver named Christopher.
#99 Attempto Racing Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Stanislav Minsky, Klaus Bachler, Nicholas Foster, Steijn Schothorst, Marvin Dienst
Why this car could win: This is a young but successful team. Foster won the Australian Porsche Carrera Cup championship in 2015, has raced in the WEC and he is still only 25 years old. Dienst won twice last season in the WEC. Schothorst finished third in his first season of Blancpain GT Sprint Cup competition and he won at Zolder. Bachler has raced in the WEC and Porsche Supercup regularly.
Why this car won't win: This team is good on paper but I think it lacks the chemistry needed to win a 24-hour race.
A6-AM
#10 Hofor-Racing Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Michael Kroll, Chantal Prinz, Alexander Prinz, Kenneth Heyer, Christiaan Frankenhout
Why this car could win: Hofor-Racing is a perennial 24H Series AM class race winner. It has won plenty of races. It has won its class at Dubai before.
Why this car won't win: The Pro class is too deep to win overall but it would not be surprising if this car ended up in the top five overall and won the A6-AM class.
#12 Target Racing Lamborghini Huracán GT3
Drivers: Dennis Lind, Giacomo Altoé, Timur Boguslavskiy, Stefano Costantini, Alex Autumn
Why this car could win: Lamborghini has produced a lot of successful GT3 entries.
Why this car won't win: This is a team of relative unknowns and it will not finish in the top five of the A6-AM class let alone on the top step of the overall podium.
#19 MP Motorpsort Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Daniël de Jong, Bert de Heus, Henk de Jong
Why this car could win: It is a Mercedes-AMG, which has success at Dubai. Daniël de Jong had minor success in single-seaters.
Why this car won't win: It isn't a deep lineup compared to the rest of the grid.
#25 HTP Motorsport Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Alexander Hrachowina, Martin Konrad, Bernd Schneider, Indy Dontje, Brice Bosi
Why this car could win: Schneider has won this race overall and he has won in almost everything he has drive. Dontje has been a quick, young driver for some time. HTP Motorsport has won in many different series across GT3 racing. Hrachowina and Konrad ran together in the International GT Open.
Why this car won't win: Hrachowina and Konrad are an amateur pair without much success against a grid of this capability.
#26 SAINTELOC Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Christian Kelders, Pierre-Yves Paque, Daniel Desbrueres, Nyls Stivenart, Simon Gachet
Why this car could win: Stivenart won the Blancpain GT Series Pro-Am title with Markus Winkelhock last year and Gachet finished 11th in the overall Blancpain GT Series with Christopher Haase as his co-driver for every race but the Spa 24 Hours.
Why this car won't win: Mostly amateurs that have not had success on their own.
#33 Car Collection Motorsport Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Simon Reicher, Murad Sultanov, Martin Berry, Klaus Koch, Philipp Sager
Why this car could win: It is a team that has 24H Series experience.
Why this car won't win: Here...
#34 Car Collection Motorsport Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Johannes Dr. Kirchhoff, Gustav Edelhoff, Elmar Grimm, Ingo Vogler
Why this car could win: Edelhoff, Grimm and Vogler won twice in the A6-Am class during the 2018 season.
Why this car won't win: The field is too deep for this entry to win.
#85 CP Racing Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Charles Putman, Charles Espenlaub, Joe Foster, Shane Lewis
Why this car could win: Putman, Espenlaub and Foster have had success in many different classes across the 24H Series. Those three won four races last year in the A6-AM class. Lewis is the one change from the line-up, in for Adam Christodoulou.
Why this car won't win: It would not be crazy if this car won in class. If this entry does not win the class it is because there are three or four better cars in this given race.
#91 Herberth Motorsport Porsche 911 GT3 R
Drivers: Daniel Allemann, Ralf Bohn, Robert Renauer, Alfred Renauer
Why this car could win: This team won at Dubai in 2017 and that year it won four of seven 24H Series races. Last year, the team took a slight step back and only won two of eight 24H Series races.
Why this car won't win: It doesn't have Brendon Hartley like it did in 2017.
#92 Team Porsche Centre Hong Kong Porsche 911 GT3 R
Drivers: Frank Yu, Jonathan Hui, Antares Au, Kevin Wing Kin Tse
Why this car could win: It is on the grid and there is a chance all the other cars break down.
Why this car won't win: There are 22 other cars on the entry list.
Porsche leads all manufactures with five victories in this event. Last year was Mercedes-Benz's fourth victory. BMW has three victories but does not have a car entered in the A6 class this year. BMW has not won this event since 2011. Audi's only victory was in 2016.
Last year's race saw the winning Black Falcon Mercedes-AMG complete 606 laps, the third most in the history of the event. Second most was done in 2010 when IMSA Performance Matmut Porsche completed 608 laps. Black Falcon set the record for most laps completed in 2012 with 628.
Fifteen different nationalities have won this event overall. No driver has won this race more than twice. Al Faisal, Haupt, Buurman, Al Qubaisi and Bleekemolen are all two-time winners entered in this year's race and all drive for Black Falcon.
The 14th Dubai 24 Hour starts at 6:00 a.m. ET on Friday January 11th.
Covering All Motorsports. From Indianapolis to Le Mans, Daytona to Monaco.
Thursday, January 10, 2019
Wednesday, January 9, 2019
When Does the Nostalgia Wear Off?
When you hear that Indianapolis Motor Speedway has an announcement at 1:00 p.m. ET and IndyCar has an announcement at 1:30 p.m. ET, you are at attention. What could it be? It has to be something big.
Is it good news or bad?
It could be the new title sponsor. We are still waiting on that. It could be a new title sponsor and perhaps a title sponsor for the Indianapolis 500. That would be massive news and it would make sense that both were announced simultaneously especially if it was the same company or two related companies.
Alexander Rossi and Scott Dixon are going to be there. This could be bad. What if it is announcing a championship format change where the top two drivers are going to be guaranteed a shot at the title in the finale but be some odd hybrid winner-take-all/points event where the top two are tied, third is ten points back and fourth in 20 points back and guarantees at least four drivers fighting for the title but isn't boiled down to one race and leave the door open for a driver to win on points?
Those were all things that ran through my head this morning and early afternoon.
None of that was the case. Mario Andretti is getting a commemorative logo in honor of the 50th anniversary of his Indianapolis 500 victory and the television schedule was announced. Dixon and Rossi were there for meetings and were tacked on to the press conference. Not that it is a bad thing to have the two championship contenders from 2018 on stage. Those are the guys who want out front. Remember, people are looking for a bandwagon to jump on.
There is something that got me though when watching the Mario Andretti portion of the announcements. IndyCar has been doing a lot of commemorating the last decade and more than I can ever remember. It might be the way of the 21st century. After all, everything is done with business in mind. Every retiring superstar in baseball, basketball, hockey and motorsports gets a farewell tour. It is the same old shtick. Player announces retirement. Each city gives a gift/shows a video on the jumbotron. That player causes a spike in ticket sales for that game or games because he or she has set a finish line to his or her career and we can countdown to the day this person will never play again. A logo/badge/emblem/patch is made, emblazoned on t-shirts, hats, hoodies, backpacks, scarves, beach towels and key chains and sold as limited edition.
It only makes sense IndyCar and Indianapolis Motor Speedway would jump on the same train as every other sports property but it is not just the logo. This is different. The last decade has been different.
The previous decade was not a time for celebration. It was during the split. People were not in the mood for celebration. People were angry. There was a bit of hypocrisy to celebrate IndyCar's past when the series in charge of the Indianapolis 500 had split itself off from the existing series to create something new out of entirely different with a different cast of character.
While it was not a time for celebration it could also be argued there was nothing to celebrate. That of course is not true but there is some truth in it. None of the winners from the 1950s lived to the golden anniversary of their Indianapolis 500 victory. Only two lived to see their 40th anniversary. IndyCar's golden era was too fresh. A.J. Foyt, Mario Andretti, Al Unser and Rick Mears all retired in the 1990s and the achievements of those drivers belonged to a series separate from the one sanctioning the famed race.
Fortunately, IndyCar reunified in 2008 and it could not have come at a better time. It was the same year as A.J. Foyt's 50th anniversary of his Indianapolis 500 debut.
Looking back at the last decade it is interesting to see how IndyCar's resurgence has coincided with the golden anniversary of IndyCar's golden era. IndyCar and the Speedway have been able to sell nostalgia for the better part of the decade. The Centennial Era celebrated started in 2009, the 100th anniversary of the opening of the Indianapolis 500, and lasted through 2011, the 100th anniversary of the first Indianapolis 500 but 2011 was not only a celebration of this century old race but it was also the 50th anniversary of Foyt's first victory, a victory that occurred during a culturally changing American.
Baby boomer grew up with the names Foyt, Andretti and Unser and had STP decals adoring bicycles, gas station windows and toolboxes and workbenches in garages across this country. The consumer era was born. Kids could buy the matchbox versions of the Indianapolis 500 winner and play with them in the sandbox or on the living room floor at the feet of their parents. Television brought the image of the race into the homes of millions even if it was hours after the checkered flag had been waved. The Indianapolis 500 was the premier sporting events of the baby boomer generation. The Super Bowl came later but it was a time when the World Series, Kentucky Derby, Indianapolis 500 and Rose Bowl were king.
The last decade has been a reminder of that great era. For the elder statesmen it is a look back to their childhoods. The days when the race was heard live over the radio in the backyard while dad stood at the grill and the kids rode bicycles in packs of a dozen strong. While the race was shown that night the alternatives were watching fireflies and listening to the cricket sing from the front porch.
For the youths, it is about falling more in awe of these living legends that would by myths if they were not in our midst. It is about recoding every word these men speak because it is all we will eventually have of an era that took place in some cases before our parents were born.
The wind has not let up after the 100th Indianapolis 500 nearly three yeas ago. Many though the 100th anniversary would be the end of IndyCar, a culmination that was great but fraught after watching the series go devolve from multi-million dollar, technological advance machinery to shoestring budgets with one engine and one chassis in town. Others thought the 100th Indianapolis 500 would be it. Where else could the race go? No other race has gone on this long with the level of popularity. It seemed 100 was the finish line. Once you reached it there was nowhere else to go and the masses would file out, say their final goodbyes and most would never return.
But there was more. The series and the track were sitting on a golden egg and it paid off big time. Forgotten in the mix of these centennial marks were other great things about IndyCar. The arrival of Lotus, Parnelli Jones' victory, the 1964 race, which stands as a pivotal point for racing safety.
After the 100th race there was the 50th anniversary of the 1967 race, the turbine and Jones' dominance fell victim to a $5 piece. Jones' loss was our gain, adding to the folklore of this event and how speed was only worth celebrating if reliability could take you 500 miles. The breakdown led the way to Foyt's third victory and put him level with Wilbur Shaw and Louis Meyer for most Indianapolis 500 victory.
We weren't done yet. Last year was the 50th anniversary of Bobby Unser's first victory and it turned into a celebration of the entire Unser family history, which dated back to his brother Jerry's first start in 1958.
Last year was also the 50th anniversary of the filming of Winning, the preeminent motion picture about the Indianapolis 500 and, incredibly, the film that gave us something bigger than a time capsule of the beloved era but one of IndyCar's greatest team owners, Paul Newman.
Without that film, who knows if Newman ever gets into IndyCar at the level he does. What would IndyCar look like if Newman had never taken the role of Frank Capua? And we are talking about something greater than a man, a film and a role that turned people into fans. We are talking about what happened on track.
Winning was released May 22, 1969 and eight days later Mario Andretti won the Indianapolis 500. Who would have thought that Memorial Day in 1969 that Newman and Andretti would ascend to the heights in terms of IndyCar importance together?
There I am getting nostalgic thinking about the incredible weaving of humanity. But when it end? When does the nostalgia no longer become a selling point?
This year is Andretti's 50th anniversary. Next year is the 50th anniversary of Al Unser's first Indianapolis 500 and the year after that is the 50th anniversary of his second. In three year we will be celebrating the 50th anniversary of Team Penske's first Indianapolis 500 victory with Mark Donohue.
The 1973 race will be tough to celebrate but the year after that is not only the 50th anniversary of Johnny Rutherford's first victory but McLaren's first victory as a team at Indianapolis. How timely that McLaren is looking to get back into IndyCar full-time? Let's hope it hangs in there until 2024. Then it will be the 50th anniversary of Uncle Bobby's second, Rutherford's second, Janet Guthrie becoming the first woman to qualify for the Indianapolis 500 and in a sense it culminates with the 50th anniversary of Foyt's fourth victory.
We have enough nostalgia to get us through 2027. If you want to get a bit further, 2028 will be the 50th anniversary of Al Unser's third and 2029 will be the golden anniversary of Rick Mears' first.
When will it end though? Can IndyCar and the Indianapolis 500 keep selling nostalgia into 2030? We take these walks down memory lane but eventually we will come to the bits of history that are less than savory. We will one day reach the darker days of the split. Will the fever still be there?
Of course, the late 90s do not have to be celebrated but we cannot keep celebrating the same moments. They will become old. On top of that eventually the living legends will pass. Our parents will pass and we will fall into the same problem with the 2000s when the legends are gone. It is hard to get up the excitement to celebrate people when they are no longer with us. We will be left with our past and the days we can recall will be those of conflict, two 500-mile races taking place simultaneously. It will be about who wasn't there. It will be the lost years when Penske, Ganassi, Andretti, Zanardi and Moore were not at Indianapolis.
If IndyCar's wave of positivity over the last decade has been aided with the golden anniversary of IndyCar's golden era, what will IndyCar look like when we reach the golden anniversary for one of the most divisive periods in its history?
This isn't about the next two years or five years or ten years. It is a concern that we harp too much on the past and what happens when selling the past co no longer prop up the present?
These anniversaries are wonderful celebrations and reminders of where the series was and how much has changed. At the same time, we need to start living in the present and celebrating what we have.
The good news is I think IndyCar is at a better point to sell what it has than at any other point in the 21st century. The racing is great. At times the beauty brings me to the verge of tears from exhaustion over the excitement from green flag to checkered. We have come to appreciate Scott Dixon and Will Power and those Antipodeans are going to stick around in IndyCar for plenty more seasons. There are plenty of exciting millennial drivers: Josef Newgarden, Alexander Rossi, James Hinchcliffe, Robert Wickens, Graham Rahal, Marco Andretti, Zach Veach and Spencer Pigot. Those names will hopefully all be around for the next decade and give the fan base and global audience a core group of drivers to embrace.
There is a lot to celebrate in the final year of this decade but we should remember it is not only the past. The present is grand and many of us are ready to charge into the future.
Monday, January 7, 2019
Musings From the Weekend: Does a NASCAR Team Have to be Based in North Carolina?
The first weekend of the New Year had Supercross in action from Anaheim. It turned out to be a sloppy event and a few early season favorites got off to a rough start but it with a slight surprise winner. Elsewhere around the world, the Dakar Rally is preparing to get underway in Peru. Testing commenced from Daytona in preparations for the 24 Hours of Daytona at the end of the month. Wayne Taylor Racing was strong as was Mazda, CORE Autosport with Nissan topped the final session and the outright lap records appears it will be shattered come qualifying in a few weeks. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.
Does a NASCAR Team Have to be Based in North Carolina?
One of the biggest stories at the end of the NASCAR season was the closure of Furniture Row Racing.
One year after winning a popular Cup Series championship, the team was shutting down due to lack of funding and the fairy tale ended. The team's popularity came from its unlikely rise against the behemoths of Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, Team Penske and Stewart-Haas Racing. It did it with a likable driver and crew chief in Martin Truex, Jr. and Cole Pearn and a quiet owner in Barney Visser.
What added to the team's mystique was its location: Denver, Colorado, two time zones from NASCAR country.
Other than the Wood Brothers out of Virginia, most NASCAR teams called North Carolina home and these teams have clustered around Mooresville, North Carolina. For a team to be based outside that vicinity let alone West of the Mississippi and in the Rocky Mountains seemed absurd. It seemed like an operation destined to languish behind the rest of the field.
Of course, that wasn't the case. Furniture Row Racing did have its early day struggles with Kenny Wallace and Joe Nemechek but almost like an expansion team that brought in a few veterans to get off the ground, the team found its identity. Younger talent came to the team and improved results followed. Regan Smith was its first youthful hire and within three years he won the Southern 500 for Furniture Row Racing. After Smith was Kurt Busch, who finished tenth in the championship with the team. Then came Truex, Jr. and we all know where the story goes from there.
In a little over a decade, Furniture Row Racing proved a team could be the best in NASCAR and come from a foreign land. The closing of the team resurrected questions about if such an accomplishment could ever be achieved again.
Why couldn't it?
NASCAR is a more national sport than 25 years ago. There are races all over the country. It is not like the 1970s and 1980s when Rockingham had two races, as did North Wilkesboro, Darlington, Charlotte, Richmond, Martinsville, Bristol and Nashville. At that time it made sense to be based in North Carolina. Most of the races were a day trip away and I didn't even include Atlanta's two races. The treks to Riverside, Texas World, Michigan and Pocono were rare.
The schedule is much different. NASCAR is as much a Midwestern sport as its is a Southern sport in the 21st Century. Indianapolis has a race. Kentucky is closer to Indianapolis than Charlotte. There is a race in Kansas. The series goes up to New Hampshire and has a trip to Watkins Glen. There are plenty of Western races. Las Vegas has two races now. Phoenix has two. The series goes to Sonoma.
Does a NASCAR team have to be based in North Carolina?
There are benefits as everything is there. There is a wind tunnel, manufactures have shops there; a whole industry has cropped up in that part of the country. It is definitely advantageous but does a team have to be based there?
Of course not. The Charlotte-area isn't the only one where motorsports has taken hold in the United States. Indianapolis is just as big of a motorsports hub. There are IndyCar teams, sports car teams and drag racing teams all based around the capital of the Hoosier State. The infrastructure is there. Location-wise, Indianapolis is a lot further from Daytona, Homestead, Atlanta and venues in the Carolinas but it would be better suited in terms of getting to races such as Michigan, Kentucky, Chicagoland and Kansas and it would cut a junk of time out of the long haul rides to California, Nevada and Arizona.
If Indianapolis is too far outside the bubble for a team, then there has to be another alternative that would be more suitable in terms of travel and one place I looked up that might fit the mold is Hilliard, Ohio. If Hilliard, Ohio sounds familiar to you then don't be surprise when you find out that is where Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing's BMW program is based.
Hilliard is a bit further east than Indianapolis and it is more centrally located for certain events. Unlike Indianapolis, Hilliard is closer to Pocono, Watkins Glen and Loudon than Charlotte and it is closer to Daytona, Martinsville, Bristol, Richmond, Dover, Michigan and Homestead than Indianapolis. In fact, using Google Maps, the total mileage of the round trips for all 36 NASCAR Cup races from Hilliard, Ohio is only 144 miles more than the total mileage of the rounds trips from Charlotte.
The one thing Hilliard has against it is, while being better in terms of driving a trailer than Indianapolis, it is not a hub. There aren't teams all around and crew people around. There are simulators and wind tunnels and shops around every other corner. The infrastructure is slightly lacking. Not that it stopped Furniture Row Racing from succeeding from Colorado but there are things that nine times out of ten you would like more at your disposal and are more easily accessible in Indianapolis.
Many mourned the loss of Furniture Row Racing and its story, the little based out of the mountains and relished getting to see a team from Colorado win the championship because they think it will not happen again. But why couldn't it happen again and happen soon? When looking at NASCAR all three national touring series are thinning out in terms of number of teams. Eventually it will turn around. Eventually NASCAR will make changes and work to make it more appealing to teams. Where will those teams come from? How many are already going to be based in North Carolina? How many are going to relocate?
I think NASCAR should want it to be possible for teams to succeed from many places around the country. The series needs to grow and it should not take relocation for a team to be able to compete. If an IndyCar team or sports car team based out of Indianapolis wanted to expand to NASCAR it should be able to do it from Indianapolis. There are going to be places that are always going to be an uphill battle if you are going to based your team from there. It is going to be difficult if you are based out of Seattle or Boise or Omaha but it should be possible from more areas.
Whether it is Indianapolis, Hilliard, Lexington, Kentucky, Nashville, Tennessee or Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, it is possible to succeed in NASCAR while based out of these locations. Furniture Row Racing should not be the last outsider to run at the top of NASCAR and it should not be considered the exception to the rule. It would only benefit NASCAR if it branched out with more teams from more locations entering the series.
Winner From the Weekend
Justin Barcia won the Supercross race from Anaheim. It was Barcia's first Supercross victory since Seattle 2013. It was Yamaha's first Supercross victory since Daytona 2012.
Coming Up This Weekend
The Dakar Rally continues.
The Dubai 24 Hour.
The Toyota Racing Series begins its 2019 season from Highlands Motorsports Park.
Round two of the Supercross season takes place from Glendale.
Formula E has round two from Marrakesh.
Asian Le Mans Series has its popular race from Buriram and it is the penultimate race of the season.
Does a NASCAR Team Have to be Based in North Carolina?
One of the biggest stories at the end of the NASCAR season was the closure of Furniture Row Racing.
One year after winning a popular Cup Series championship, the team was shutting down due to lack of funding and the fairy tale ended. The team's popularity came from its unlikely rise against the behemoths of Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, Team Penske and Stewart-Haas Racing. It did it with a likable driver and crew chief in Martin Truex, Jr. and Cole Pearn and a quiet owner in Barney Visser.
What added to the team's mystique was its location: Denver, Colorado, two time zones from NASCAR country.
Other than the Wood Brothers out of Virginia, most NASCAR teams called North Carolina home and these teams have clustered around Mooresville, North Carolina. For a team to be based outside that vicinity let alone West of the Mississippi and in the Rocky Mountains seemed absurd. It seemed like an operation destined to languish behind the rest of the field.
Of course, that wasn't the case. Furniture Row Racing did have its early day struggles with Kenny Wallace and Joe Nemechek but almost like an expansion team that brought in a few veterans to get off the ground, the team found its identity. Younger talent came to the team and improved results followed. Regan Smith was its first youthful hire and within three years he won the Southern 500 for Furniture Row Racing. After Smith was Kurt Busch, who finished tenth in the championship with the team. Then came Truex, Jr. and we all know where the story goes from there.
In a little over a decade, Furniture Row Racing proved a team could be the best in NASCAR and come from a foreign land. The closing of the team resurrected questions about if such an accomplishment could ever be achieved again.
Why couldn't it?
NASCAR is a more national sport than 25 years ago. There are races all over the country. It is not like the 1970s and 1980s when Rockingham had two races, as did North Wilkesboro, Darlington, Charlotte, Richmond, Martinsville, Bristol and Nashville. At that time it made sense to be based in North Carolina. Most of the races were a day trip away and I didn't even include Atlanta's two races. The treks to Riverside, Texas World, Michigan and Pocono were rare.
The schedule is much different. NASCAR is as much a Midwestern sport as its is a Southern sport in the 21st Century. Indianapolis has a race. Kentucky is closer to Indianapolis than Charlotte. There is a race in Kansas. The series goes up to New Hampshire and has a trip to Watkins Glen. There are plenty of Western races. Las Vegas has two races now. Phoenix has two. The series goes to Sonoma.
Does a NASCAR team have to be based in North Carolina?
There are benefits as everything is there. There is a wind tunnel, manufactures have shops there; a whole industry has cropped up in that part of the country. It is definitely advantageous but does a team have to be based there?
Of course not. The Charlotte-area isn't the only one where motorsports has taken hold in the United States. Indianapolis is just as big of a motorsports hub. There are IndyCar teams, sports car teams and drag racing teams all based around the capital of the Hoosier State. The infrastructure is there. Location-wise, Indianapolis is a lot further from Daytona, Homestead, Atlanta and venues in the Carolinas but it would be better suited in terms of getting to races such as Michigan, Kentucky, Chicagoland and Kansas and it would cut a junk of time out of the long haul rides to California, Nevada and Arizona.
If Indianapolis is too far outside the bubble for a team, then there has to be another alternative that would be more suitable in terms of travel and one place I looked up that might fit the mold is Hilliard, Ohio. If Hilliard, Ohio sounds familiar to you then don't be surprise when you find out that is where Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing's BMW program is based.
Hilliard is a bit further east than Indianapolis and it is more centrally located for certain events. Unlike Indianapolis, Hilliard is closer to Pocono, Watkins Glen and Loudon than Charlotte and it is closer to Daytona, Martinsville, Bristol, Richmond, Dover, Michigan and Homestead than Indianapolis. In fact, using Google Maps, the total mileage of the round trips for all 36 NASCAR Cup races from Hilliard, Ohio is only 144 miles more than the total mileage of the rounds trips from Charlotte.
The one thing Hilliard has against it is, while being better in terms of driving a trailer than Indianapolis, it is not a hub. There aren't teams all around and crew people around. There are simulators and wind tunnels and shops around every other corner. The infrastructure is slightly lacking. Not that it stopped Furniture Row Racing from succeeding from Colorado but there are things that nine times out of ten you would like more at your disposal and are more easily accessible in Indianapolis.
Many mourned the loss of Furniture Row Racing and its story, the little based out of the mountains and relished getting to see a team from Colorado win the championship because they think it will not happen again. But why couldn't it happen again and happen soon? When looking at NASCAR all three national touring series are thinning out in terms of number of teams. Eventually it will turn around. Eventually NASCAR will make changes and work to make it more appealing to teams. Where will those teams come from? How many are already going to be based in North Carolina? How many are going to relocate?
I think NASCAR should want it to be possible for teams to succeed from many places around the country. The series needs to grow and it should not take relocation for a team to be able to compete. If an IndyCar team or sports car team based out of Indianapolis wanted to expand to NASCAR it should be able to do it from Indianapolis. There are going to be places that are always going to be an uphill battle if you are going to based your team from there. It is going to be difficult if you are based out of Seattle or Boise or Omaha but it should be possible from more areas.
Whether it is Indianapolis, Hilliard, Lexington, Kentucky, Nashville, Tennessee or Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, it is possible to succeed in NASCAR while based out of these locations. Furniture Row Racing should not be the last outsider to run at the top of NASCAR and it should not be considered the exception to the rule. It would only benefit NASCAR if it branched out with more teams from more locations entering the series.
Winner From the Weekend
Justin Barcia won the Supercross race from Anaheim. It was Barcia's first Supercross victory since Seattle 2013. It was Yamaha's first Supercross victory since Daytona 2012.
Coming Up This Weekend
The Dakar Rally continues.
The Dubai 24 Hour.
The Toyota Racing Series begins its 2019 season from Highlands Motorsports Park.
Round two of the Supercross season takes place from Glendale.
Formula E has round two from Marrakesh.
Asian Le Mans Series has its popular race from Buriram and it is the penultimate race of the season.
Friday, January 4, 2019
This Month in Motorsports Headlines: December 2018 Part Two
It is January and it is 2019 but we have one final look back to 2018 and the headlines for the second half of December. It is kind of eye opening which series are the most active during the Christmas period. A lot of motorsports series were quiet and it is not that all the seats are accounted for in IndyCar or that NASCAR is happy with its rulebook but a few series just have more to say.
How Alejandro Agag is the Elon Musk of motorsports
That is not a good thing. Nobody should want to be the Elon Musk of anything. Only a buffoon would think that is a compliment. He is the Elon Musk of motorsports in a sense he opens his yap about everything and thinks he is the second coming of the Messiah but once again, those aren't good things.
Like the actually Elon Musk, we would be better off hearing less from Mr. Agag.
Di Grassi keen on F1 demo for Roborace
Remember when Formula E pushed back against the proposal about running events with fossil fuel series because it wanted to stand on its own and promote electric automobiles? Now its stillbirth, driverless series, which was supposed to have 20 cars and run during Formula E weeks starting two seasons ago, needs to have a 15-minute demo session at Silverstone, Hockenheim or Monza during a grand prix weekend?
Look, Roborace has been a failure. Let's just toss that idea into the incinerator.
The one thing Formula E has gotten wrong from the start is its aversion to running with existing championships. We live in a world where gasoline/diesel-powered automobiles and electric automobiles coexist and Formula E fails to bridge that gap. There is no reason why Formula E should be separate from everything else and the series and potentially electric automobiles could benefit from running with certain series.
Why couldn't Formula E and the European Le Mans Series share a weekend or Formula E and the British GT Championship or with any one of the 25 Blancpain GT Series around the world? Go to actual racetracks; go race in front of actual race fans and then the series might grow. Stop living in a fantasy...
Speaking of fantasies... on to Formula One!
London mayor thinks F1 race "should be possible"
Sure, doesn't mean it should happen.
When did Formula One adopt video game levels of thinking where every racetrack takes place in the downtown of the largest cities around the world? It feels like the calendar is morphing into Gran Turismo. There has to be a racetrack in London and Rome and Tokyo and soon somewhere in the Swiss Alps and after that race in Madrid and Seattle and Seoul.
Is Formula One going to become that much more popular just by adding a race in London?
If you live in the United Kingdom, are you more likely to get into Formula One if there is a race in London? I feel like you know what it is and you know where to see it if you want to go in person and you either choose to watch it or you don't. I don't see how a race in London or any other major city of the world would somehow get people to say, "You know what? I got to watch more of this Formula One stuff."
Under-threat British GP tops F1 attendances
And this is a nice transition to the fact that the United Kingdom already has a successful grand prix, arguably the most successful grand prix, and for some reason that is never good enough for anyone involved. It is never good enough for Formula One. It is never good enough for Silverstone because despite the crowd it is still losing money and this race is always in jeopardy of falling off the calendar.
Maybe one day Formula One will realize what it has and why it cannot afford to lose that or some authoritarian regime will come along tossing bags of cash and the series only wants that.
Denmark's F1 race plan now relies on Copenhagen alternative
It is in the Netherlands and it is called Zandvoort.
No offense to the Danish people and the city of Copenhagen but it is better if Formula One doesn't head to your lovely country.
Red Bull must be F1 title contender with Honda - Brawn
I think that is the team's plan. Really Red Bull needs to be a title contender with whatever engine manufacture it partners with. It could put Kia engines in the back of the car and it still has to be a title contender.
I am not sure who needs to be a title contender more, Red Bull or Honda? Honda just needs to be competitive. If you gave Honda the exact results Red Bull had last year Honda would take it. Honda just needs to start sniffing the podium. Red Bull needs to compete for the title and Formula One in general cannot afford to have the fight go from three teams down to two.
Red Bull tried everything to keep Ricciardo
Did it try firing Max Verstappen? If no, then it didn't try everything but nobody, Ricciardo included, should have expected that to be a possibility.
Red Bull is kind of in a win-win. If Ricciardo doesn't do much at Renault, and I am not sure anyone is expecting him to win races, then it looks like Red Bull made the right choice because in all likelihood Verstappen will be finishing ahead of the Australian. And if Verstappen keeps winning races and finishing ahead of Ricciardo, even if Ricciardo is finishing third and fourth in most races, then it appears the team made the right choice.
The only way Red Bull loses is if Ricciardo carries Renault to heights it has only know previously with Alain Prost and Fernando Alonso and Red Bull is in his mirrors.
It is hard to see where Ricciardo goes from here in the long run of his career. Ferrari will never call as long as Sebastian Vettel is there. Mercedes already has the problem of three drivers and two seats. Red Bull isn't going to bring him back as long as Verstappen is there. I hate to think Ricciardo's career could be mired in the mediocrity of Renault and worse of all it end his Formula One career when he is 33 years old and who knows where that smile will land afterward.
On to another team that has shuffled its lineup but in the two-wheel variety...
Márquez: Vetoing Lorenzo would've been "sign of weakness"
This is admirable to acknowledge. Marc Márquez wants the challenge. He could have made it easy for himself and made sure some schlub would be on the other Honda in a move for self-preservation. Márquez could have made sure he was the top Honda rider for at least the next five years but instead he embraced the battle with another world champion.
You cannot say Márquez isn't confident. He knows how great he is and how few have been able to beat him since he entered MotoGP. No offense to Dani Pedrosa but this will be another level of competition for Márquez in 2019. It would not be surprising if Honda dominates the championship in a way that has not been since... Honda in 2014 when it won 14 of 18 races but event that in someway does not compare because 13 of those victories came at the hands of Márquez.
We could see a historic season from Honda in 2019.
On to Germany....
BMW: DTM still needs more manufacturers for 'stability'
Does DTM need more manufactures or does it want more manufactures? There is a difference.
Doesn't every series want more manufacturers for stability? IndyCar wants a third manufacture, NASCAR wants a fourth, WEC needs a whole bunch of manufactures for the new hypercar class, Formula One wants another engine supplier.
The only series I can think of that are good on manufactures are the aforementioned MotoGP and pretty much every GT3 series in the world. IMSA's GTD class has nine manufactures.
The question becomes how does DTM attract more manufactures? It doesn't make sense to become a GT3 series. There is ADAC GT Masters already in Germany. The Group One regulations in theory will make it possible for Super GT manufactures Honda, Nissan and Lexus to enter DTM but would any of those manufactures expand their operations into a European series? I think Nissan would. I think it is the most suited for it at least. Honda would be second but I don't think it could justify it and Lexus is in a similar boat to Honda.
Even if any of those three expand, how many cars would they have to bring to make it worth it? Right now, each DTM manufacture brings six cars to the grid. I would have to think you would have to commit at least five entries. Four is slightly too low because if you only had four manufactures and each ran four cars then you only have 16 cars and the grid would be smaller than it is already. If you have five manufactures then four entries may be permissible.
I am a bit excited at the though of the DTM including one or two of the Super GT manufactures and something inside me is screaming for Alfa Romeo to return but that is a bit of the 90s nostalgia coming out of me and I am not sure if a return of Alfa Romeo would do anything for the series nearly 25 years after it departed.
Paffett wants one-off DTM return in 2019
I think that one Formula E race already has Gary Paffett having second thoughts. A ride at Aston Martin sounds pretty good right now, doesn't it?
I want Paffett to run a one-off in the DTM and it goes back to something I wrote when Alex Zanardi announced a one-off and Sébastien Ogier announced a one-off, I want DTM to make this be its thing.
I want DTM to have regular one-off rides. I think it should be a close to regular thing for each manufacture. I want BMW to have Zanardi in a car for one race and then have Alexander Sims come in and then bring John Edwards or Bill Auberlen over. I want Audi to have Lucas di Grassi, Christopher Haase and Dries Vanthoor get a shot. Aston Martin should put Nicki Thiim, Alex Lynn and Darren Turner in as one-offs if they are not full time to begin with.
But I also want to see these one-offs be a chance once-in-a-lifetime drives that make people tune in or show up at the racetrack. I want to see the likes of Kyle Busch, Alexander Rossi, Juan Pablo Montoya, Will Power, André Lotterer, Rob Huff, Yvan Muller, Brendon Hartley and others get a one-off and be that fun cameo at each race.
DTM should be the fun series and give fans something different to watch in each race and give fans something that no other series offers.
That puts a bow on 2018 and we are in a New Year, a new batch of seasons and the wonderful return of an unknown lies ahead of us.
How Alejandro Agag is the Elon Musk of motorsports
That is not a good thing. Nobody should want to be the Elon Musk of anything. Only a buffoon would think that is a compliment. He is the Elon Musk of motorsports in a sense he opens his yap about everything and thinks he is the second coming of the Messiah but once again, those aren't good things.
Like the actually Elon Musk, we would be better off hearing less from Mr. Agag.
Di Grassi keen on F1 demo for Roborace
Remember when Formula E pushed back against the proposal about running events with fossil fuel series because it wanted to stand on its own and promote electric automobiles? Now its stillbirth, driverless series, which was supposed to have 20 cars and run during Formula E weeks starting two seasons ago, needs to have a 15-minute demo session at Silverstone, Hockenheim or Monza during a grand prix weekend?
Look, Roborace has been a failure. Let's just toss that idea into the incinerator.
The one thing Formula E has gotten wrong from the start is its aversion to running with existing championships. We live in a world where gasoline/diesel-powered automobiles and electric automobiles coexist and Formula E fails to bridge that gap. There is no reason why Formula E should be separate from everything else and the series and potentially electric automobiles could benefit from running with certain series.
Why couldn't Formula E and the European Le Mans Series share a weekend or Formula E and the British GT Championship or with any one of the 25 Blancpain GT Series around the world? Go to actual racetracks; go race in front of actual race fans and then the series might grow. Stop living in a fantasy...
Speaking of fantasies... on to Formula One!
London mayor thinks F1 race "should be possible"
Sure, doesn't mean it should happen.
When did Formula One adopt video game levels of thinking where every racetrack takes place in the downtown of the largest cities around the world? It feels like the calendar is morphing into Gran Turismo. There has to be a racetrack in London and Rome and Tokyo and soon somewhere in the Swiss Alps and after that race in Madrid and Seattle and Seoul.
Is Formula One going to become that much more popular just by adding a race in London?
If you live in the United Kingdom, are you more likely to get into Formula One if there is a race in London? I feel like you know what it is and you know where to see it if you want to go in person and you either choose to watch it or you don't. I don't see how a race in London or any other major city of the world would somehow get people to say, "You know what? I got to watch more of this Formula One stuff."
Under-threat British GP tops F1 attendances
And this is a nice transition to the fact that the United Kingdom already has a successful grand prix, arguably the most successful grand prix, and for some reason that is never good enough for anyone involved. It is never good enough for Formula One. It is never good enough for Silverstone because despite the crowd it is still losing money and this race is always in jeopardy of falling off the calendar.
Maybe one day Formula One will realize what it has and why it cannot afford to lose that or some authoritarian regime will come along tossing bags of cash and the series only wants that.
Denmark's F1 race plan now relies on Copenhagen alternative
It is in the Netherlands and it is called Zandvoort.
No offense to the Danish people and the city of Copenhagen but it is better if Formula One doesn't head to your lovely country.
Red Bull must be F1 title contender with Honda - Brawn
I think that is the team's plan. Really Red Bull needs to be a title contender with whatever engine manufacture it partners with. It could put Kia engines in the back of the car and it still has to be a title contender.
I am not sure who needs to be a title contender more, Red Bull or Honda? Honda just needs to be competitive. If you gave Honda the exact results Red Bull had last year Honda would take it. Honda just needs to start sniffing the podium. Red Bull needs to compete for the title and Formula One in general cannot afford to have the fight go from three teams down to two.
Red Bull tried everything to keep Ricciardo
Did it try firing Max Verstappen? If no, then it didn't try everything but nobody, Ricciardo included, should have expected that to be a possibility.
Red Bull is kind of in a win-win. If Ricciardo doesn't do much at Renault, and I am not sure anyone is expecting him to win races, then it looks like Red Bull made the right choice because in all likelihood Verstappen will be finishing ahead of the Australian. And if Verstappen keeps winning races and finishing ahead of Ricciardo, even if Ricciardo is finishing third and fourth in most races, then it appears the team made the right choice.
The only way Red Bull loses is if Ricciardo carries Renault to heights it has only know previously with Alain Prost and Fernando Alonso and Red Bull is in his mirrors.
It is hard to see where Ricciardo goes from here in the long run of his career. Ferrari will never call as long as Sebastian Vettel is there. Mercedes already has the problem of three drivers and two seats. Red Bull isn't going to bring him back as long as Verstappen is there. I hate to think Ricciardo's career could be mired in the mediocrity of Renault and worse of all it end his Formula One career when he is 33 years old and who knows where that smile will land afterward.
On to another team that has shuffled its lineup but in the two-wheel variety...
Márquez: Vetoing Lorenzo would've been "sign of weakness"
This is admirable to acknowledge. Marc Márquez wants the challenge. He could have made it easy for himself and made sure some schlub would be on the other Honda in a move for self-preservation. Márquez could have made sure he was the top Honda rider for at least the next five years but instead he embraced the battle with another world champion.
You cannot say Márquez isn't confident. He knows how great he is and how few have been able to beat him since he entered MotoGP. No offense to Dani Pedrosa but this will be another level of competition for Márquez in 2019. It would not be surprising if Honda dominates the championship in a way that has not been since... Honda in 2014 when it won 14 of 18 races but event that in someway does not compare because 13 of those victories came at the hands of Márquez.
We could see a historic season from Honda in 2019.
On to Germany....
BMW: DTM still needs more manufacturers for 'stability'
Does DTM need more manufactures or does it want more manufactures? There is a difference.
Doesn't every series want more manufacturers for stability? IndyCar wants a third manufacture, NASCAR wants a fourth, WEC needs a whole bunch of manufactures for the new hypercar class, Formula One wants another engine supplier.
The only series I can think of that are good on manufactures are the aforementioned MotoGP and pretty much every GT3 series in the world. IMSA's GTD class has nine manufactures.
The question becomes how does DTM attract more manufactures? It doesn't make sense to become a GT3 series. There is ADAC GT Masters already in Germany. The Group One regulations in theory will make it possible for Super GT manufactures Honda, Nissan and Lexus to enter DTM but would any of those manufactures expand their operations into a European series? I think Nissan would. I think it is the most suited for it at least. Honda would be second but I don't think it could justify it and Lexus is in a similar boat to Honda.
Even if any of those three expand, how many cars would they have to bring to make it worth it? Right now, each DTM manufacture brings six cars to the grid. I would have to think you would have to commit at least five entries. Four is slightly too low because if you only had four manufactures and each ran four cars then you only have 16 cars and the grid would be smaller than it is already. If you have five manufactures then four entries may be permissible.
I am a bit excited at the though of the DTM including one or two of the Super GT manufactures and something inside me is screaming for Alfa Romeo to return but that is a bit of the 90s nostalgia coming out of me and I am not sure if a return of Alfa Romeo would do anything for the series nearly 25 years after it departed.
Paffett wants one-off DTM return in 2019
I think that one Formula E race already has Gary Paffett having second thoughts. A ride at Aston Martin sounds pretty good right now, doesn't it?
I want Paffett to run a one-off in the DTM and it goes back to something I wrote when Alex Zanardi announced a one-off and Sébastien Ogier announced a one-off, I want DTM to make this be its thing.
I want DTM to have regular one-off rides. I think it should be a close to regular thing for each manufacture. I want BMW to have Zanardi in a car for one race and then have Alexander Sims come in and then bring John Edwards or Bill Auberlen over. I want Audi to have Lucas di Grassi, Christopher Haase and Dries Vanthoor get a shot. Aston Martin should put Nicki Thiim, Alex Lynn and Darren Turner in as one-offs if they are not full time to begin with.
But I also want to see these one-offs be a chance once-in-a-lifetime drives that make people tune in or show up at the racetrack. I want to see the likes of Kyle Busch, Alexander Rossi, Juan Pablo Montoya, Will Power, André Lotterer, Rob Huff, Yvan Muller, Brendon Hartley and others get a one-off and be that fun cameo at each race.
DTM should be the fun series and give fans something different to watch in each race and give fans something that no other series offers.
That puts a bow on 2018 and we are in a New Year, a new batch of seasons and the wonderful return of an unknown lies ahead of us.
Thursday, January 3, 2019
2019 Supercross Season Preview
The first major series to get under way in 2019 will be Supercross with 17 races scheduled over the next 18 weeks. We take a look at the schedule, which includes a few new venues, and the riders, which includes a handful of championship contenders as well as an exciting rookie class.
Schedule
Anaheim once again plays host to the season opener on Saturday January 5th. One week later will be a return to Arizona and Glendale, the first domed venue of the season. Anaheim hosts its second race of the season on January 19th and it will be the first Triple Crown format event of the season. Oakland closes out January on the 26th.
February begins in San Diego on the 2nd before a trip to Minneapolis on February 9th. For the tenth consecutive season, Supercross heads to Arlington, Texas and this year's race will be on February 16th. Detroit will be the second Triple Crown round of the season on February 23rd.
Atlanta will host the first round of March on the 2nd. Daytona Bike Week takes place on March 9th and the series will head to another motorsports city in Indianapolis the following week on March 16th. Seattle will be March 23rd, the earliest visit to the Emerald City since the final visit to the Kingdome on January 30, 1999.
Houston hosts the final Triple Crown round on March 30th. Supercross will make its debut in Nashville, Tennessee on April 6th before making its first stop in Denver since 1996 on April 13th. The series will take the week after Denver off for Easter before returning to East Rutherford, New Jersey on April 27th with Las Vegas closing out the season on May 4th.
Teams:
Rockstar Energy Husqvarna Factory Team
Jason Anderson: #1 Husqvarna FC450
What did he do in 2018: Anderson won the 2018 Supercross championship with victories at Houston, Oakland, San Diego and Atlanta.
What to expect in 2019: Anderson won a title with his consistency last year and there is no reason not to think Anderson will keep up his track record. Will it be enough to win a title for a second consecutive year? He will be up there but if Eli Tomac, Ken Roczen and Marvin Musquin all remain on the bike and do not allow Anderson to make up points in bunches Anderson may find himself dropping a few positions down the championship standings.
Zach Osborne: #16 Husqvarna FC450
What did he do in 2018: Osborne won his second consecutive 250 East championship and Osborne had three victories.
What to expect in 2019: Unfortunately, Osborne injured his collarbone during a practice day and he will need surgery. He has not been ruled out for making a debut midseason. Osborne had won three consecutive championships before his 250 Motocross season ended prematurely in 2018. He kind of pairs well with Anderson. Osborne was consistent in 250s. Since he switched to Husqvarna in 2015, Osborne has won seven races, had 18 podium finishes, 24 top five finishes and 33 top ten finishes in 36 races. If he was healthy and running every race, I think Osborne would be in the top ten of the championship.
Rocky Mountain ATV/MC – KTM – WPS
Blake Baggett: #4 KTM 450 SX-F Factory Edition
What did he do in 2018: Baggett was fourth in the championship and he had five podium finishes, all third place results. He was fifth in the Motocross championship but had four podium finishes.
What to expect in 2019: Baggett improved last season but he is still on KTM's second team and, if everyone else stays healthy, Baggett may lose a few places in the championship but still put up a respectable showing.
Justin Bogle: #19 KTM 450 SX-F Factory Edition
What did he do in 2018: Bogle made only two starts in 2018, both were 17th place finishes at Glendale and Oakland.
What to expect in 2019: I am not sure. None of his results have been that great in his Supercross career and he has missed his fair share of races. I am not sure he finishes in the top ten even if he starts every race.
Bullfrog Spas/Smartop/Motoconcepts/Honda
Justin Brayton: #10 Honda CRF 450
What did he do in 2018: Brayton rounded out the top five of the champoionsip, four points off Baggett and he scored a long-awaited and popular victory at Daytona.
What to expect in 2019: He led the Honda contingent last year when the manufacture needed it most. I think he will be in the top ten of the championship but not be the top Honda rider.
Malcolm Stewart: #27 Honda CRH 450
What did he do in 2018: Stewart was 11th in the championship on 169 points with his best finish being seventh and he had four top ten finishes.
What to expect in 2019: Stewart was a late addition to this team and he is coming off a bad accident at Torino in the offseason. I think he will match his results from 2018.
Vince Friese: #42 Honda CRF 450
What did he do in 2018: Friese was 12th in the championship, missing out on tenth by nine points to Justin Barcia.
What to expect in 2019: Friese was not really competitive in 2018 and I don't think he will finish in the top ten of the championship in 2019.
What did he do in 2018: Reed was 13th in the championship on a privateer Husqvarna. His best finish was seventh at Seattle and he had four top ten finishes all season.
What to expect in 2019: After toughing out a year running his own bike, the injury to Weston Peick has landed Reed back at the factory Suzuki effort. It has been nearly four years since his last victory and Suzuki has not won since 2016. Reed should improve from his championship position last season but I don't think he will be pushing for the top five in the championship.
Justin Hill: #46 Suzuki RM-Z450
What did he do in 2018: Hill finished sixth in the 250 West championship with a victory at San Diego and a third at Oakland. He made two 450 starts with a sixth at Tampa and a 22nd at Atlanta.
What to expect in 2019: Hill had some good results and he was the 2017 250 West champion but I think he will be at best finishing in the top five and he should aim to at least beat his teammate.
Team Honda HRC
Cole Seely: #14 Honda CRF 450
What did he do in 2018: Seely finished 17th in the championship on 124 points after getting injured at Tampa and missing the final nine races. He finished second in Anaheim 2 to Tomac.
What to expect in 2019: Seely won in his rookie year at Houston in 2015 and he finished third in the championship. However, his championship finish has dropped ever since. He is a top ten rider but I don't think he can compete with the top four this season. He needs to reverse his championship slide and it will be tough to do with the depth of this grid.
Ken Roczen: #94 Honda CRF450
What did he do in 2018: Roczen finished 18th in the championship on 102 points after getting injured at San Diego and missing the final 11 races. He had finished second twice in the first six races and he had a third as well. He finished third in the Motocross championship and he had two victories.
What to expect in 2019: Everything hangs on whether Roczen can stay healthy. He can push Tomac for the title but Roczen has not been the same since his injury in 2017 and it could be a case where Roczen does not have that last bit of aggression to take a title from Tomac, Musquin and Anderson.
What did he do in 2018: Plessinger won the 250 West championship with four victories and he won the 250 Motocross championship with 11 victories from 24 races.
What to expect in 2019: It is going to be a tough fight for rookie of the year this season between Plessinger, Savatgy and Hill and it would have been better is Osborne was healthy. I think every race could have a great battle between these three somewhere between fifth and tenth. The one thing against Plessinger is Yamaha has not won a 450 Supercross race since James Stewart at Daytona in 2012.
Justin Barcia: #51 Yamaha YZ450F
What did he do in 2018: Barcia rounded out the top ten in the championship with 177 points after missing six races midseason. His best finish was second to Tomac at Glendale. He was fourth in the Motocross championship and he swept the final round, the Ironman Nationals.
What to expect in 2019: Barcia got a big opportunity last year filling in for the injured Davi Millsaps and now he has a full-time ride with factory Yamaha. He had a great start until his injury. It will be a tough battle between he and Plessinger to see who is top Yamaha rider.
DW15
Dean Wilson: #15 Husqvarna FC450
What did he do in 2018: Wilson finished seventh in the championship despite scoring no points in the season opener and missing the next race at Houston. His best finish was second to Musquin at Indianapolis.
What to expect in 2019: Wilson kind of takes over the vacancy Chad Reed left as a privateer Husqvarna rider. Wilson is a bit younger but I can't see him finishing in the top ten of the championship.
The 2019 Supercross season opener will be held at 10:00 p.m. ET on Saturday January 5th from Anaheim.
Schedule
Anaheim once again plays host to the season opener on Saturday January 5th. One week later will be a return to Arizona and Glendale, the first domed venue of the season. Anaheim hosts its second race of the season on January 19th and it will be the first Triple Crown format event of the season. Oakland closes out January on the 26th.
February begins in San Diego on the 2nd before a trip to Minneapolis on February 9th. For the tenth consecutive season, Supercross heads to Arlington, Texas and this year's race will be on February 16th. Detroit will be the second Triple Crown round of the season on February 23rd.
Atlanta will host the first round of March on the 2nd. Daytona Bike Week takes place on March 9th and the series will head to another motorsports city in Indianapolis the following week on March 16th. Seattle will be March 23rd, the earliest visit to the Emerald City since the final visit to the Kingdome on January 30, 1999.
Houston hosts the final Triple Crown round on March 30th. Supercross will make its debut in Nashville, Tennessee on April 6th before making its first stop in Denver since 1996 on April 13th. The series will take the week after Denver off for Easter before returning to East Rutherford, New Jersey on April 27th with Las Vegas closing out the season on May 4th.
Teams:
Rockstar Energy Husqvarna Factory Team
Jason Anderson: #1 Husqvarna FC450
What did he do in 2018: Anderson won the 2018 Supercross championship with victories at Houston, Oakland, San Diego and Atlanta.
What to expect in 2019: Anderson won a title with his consistency last year and there is no reason not to think Anderson will keep up his track record. Will it be enough to win a title for a second consecutive year? He will be up there but if Eli Tomac, Ken Roczen and Marvin Musquin all remain on the bike and do not allow Anderson to make up points in bunches Anderson may find himself dropping a few positions down the championship standings.
What did he do in 2018: Osborne won his second consecutive 250 East championship and Osborne had three victories.
What to expect in 2019: Unfortunately, Osborne injured his collarbone during a practice day and he will need surgery. He has not been ruled out for making a debut midseason. Osborne had won three consecutive championships before his 250 Motocross season ended prematurely in 2018. He kind of pairs well with Anderson. Osborne was consistent in 250s. Since he switched to Husqvarna in 2015, Osborne has won seven races, had 18 podium finishes, 24 top five finishes and 33 top ten finishes in 36 races. If he was healthy and running every race, I think Osborne would be in the top ten of the championship.
Red Bull KTM
Cooper Webb: #2 KTM 450 SX-F Factory Edition
What did he do in 2018: Webb finished ninth in the championship after missing four rounds, including the final three. Webb's best finish was third at Daytona.
What to expect in 2019: Webb falls a lot. He won two 250 West titles but he has yet to string together consistent results. He is making a big move to KTM. It could elevate his career if he stays up right.
What to expect in 2019: Webb falls a lot. He won two 250 West titles but he has yet to string together consistent results. He is making a big move to KTM. It could elevate his career if he stays up right.
Marvin Musquin: #25 KTM 450 SX-F Factory Edition
What did he do in 2018: Musquin was vice-champion, finishing nine points behind Anderson. Musquin won Anaheim 1, Indianapolis, Foxborough and Salt Lake City. He was vice-champion in the Motocross championship with five victories.
What to expect in 2019: The Frenchman will win a few races and he has the ability to compete for the title. He still needs to find that final gear to compete with the likes of Eli Tomac and he needs to be a bit more consistent to match Anderson. He isn't far off those two in those respective categories but that is right now what is separating him a championship.
What to expect in 2019: The Frenchman will win a few races and he has the ability to compete for the title. He still needs to find that final gear to compete with the likes of Eli Tomac and he needs to be a bit more consistent to match Anderson. He isn't far off those two in those respective categories but that is right now what is separating him a championship.
Monster Energy Kawasaki
Eli Tomac: #3 Kawasaki KX 450F
What did he do in 2018: Tomac finished third in the championship despite winning eight of 17 races. His victories were Anaheim 2, Glendale, Arlington, Tampa, St. Louis, Seattle, Minneapolis and Las Vegas. He also won his second consecutive Motocross championship with 15 victories from 24 races and he won the Monster Energy Cup.
What to expect in 2019: This has to be Tomac's year to win the Supercross championship. He has won everything else and if he can avoid the two or three poor races that have derailed his title hopes in previous seasons the title will unquestionably be his.
What to expect in 2019: This has to be Tomac's year to win the Supercross championship. He has won everything else and if he can avoid the two or three poor races that have derailed his title hopes in previous seasons the title will unquestionably be his.
Joey Savatgy: #17 Kawasaki KX 450F
What did he do in 2018: Savatgy finished fourth in the 250 West championship with one victory and four podium finishes.
What to expect in 2019: Savatgy had respectable results in the 250 division with five victories and 19 podium finishes over five seasons. I don't think Tomac will have much to worry about and I think Savatgy will be in the back half of the top ten.
What to expect in 2019: Savatgy had respectable results in the 250 division with five victories and 19 podium finishes over five seasons. I don't think Tomac will have much to worry about and I think Savatgy will be in the back half of the top ten.
Blake Baggett: #4 KTM 450 SX-F Factory Edition
What did he do in 2018: Baggett was fourth in the championship and he had five podium finishes, all third place results. He was fifth in the Motocross championship but had four podium finishes.
What to expect in 2019: Baggett improved last season but he is still on KTM's second team and, if everyone else stays healthy, Baggett may lose a few places in the championship but still put up a respectable showing.
What did he do in 2018: Bogle made only two starts in 2018, both were 17th place finishes at Glendale and Oakland.
What to expect in 2019: I am not sure. None of his results have been that great in his Supercross career and he has missed his fair share of races. I am not sure he finishes in the top ten even if he starts every race.
Justin Brayton: #10 Honda CRF 450
What did he do in 2018: Brayton rounded out the top five of the champoionsip, four points off Baggett and he scored a long-awaited and popular victory at Daytona.
What to expect in 2019: He led the Honda contingent last year when the manufacture needed it most. I think he will be in the top ten of the championship but not be the top Honda rider.
Malcolm Stewart: #27 Honda CRH 450
What did he do in 2018: Stewart was 11th in the championship on 169 points with his best finish being seventh and he had four top ten finishes.
What to expect in 2019: Stewart was a late addition to this team and he is coming off a bad accident at Torino in the offseason. I think he will match his results from 2018.
Vince Friese: #42 Honda CRF 450
What did he do in 2018: Friese was 12th in the championship, missing out on tenth by nine points to Justin Barcia.
What to expect in 2019: Friese was not really competitive in 2018 and I don't think he will finish in the top ten of the championship in 2019.
JGRMX/Yoshimura/Suzuki Factory Racing
Chad Reed: #22 Suzuki RM-Z450What did he do in 2018: Reed was 13th in the championship on a privateer Husqvarna. His best finish was seventh at Seattle and he had four top ten finishes all season.
What to expect in 2019: After toughing out a year running his own bike, the injury to Weston Peick has landed Reed back at the factory Suzuki effort. It has been nearly four years since his last victory and Suzuki has not won since 2016. Reed should improve from his championship position last season but I don't think he will be pushing for the top five in the championship.
Justin Hill: #46 Suzuki RM-Z450
What did he do in 2018: Hill finished sixth in the 250 West championship with a victory at San Diego and a third at Oakland. He made two 450 starts with a sixth at Tampa and a 22nd at Atlanta.
What to expect in 2019: Hill had some good results and he was the 2017 250 West champion but I think he will be at best finishing in the top five and he should aim to at least beat his teammate.
Cole Seely: #14 Honda CRF 450
What did he do in 2018: Seely finished 17th in the championship on 124 points after getting injured at Tampa and missing the final nine races. He finished second in Anaheim 2 to Tomac.
What to expect in 2019: Seely won in his rookie year at Houston in 2015 and he finished third in the championship. However, his championship finish has dropped ever since. He is a top ten rider but I don't think he can compete with the top four this season. He needs to reverse his championship slide and it will be tough to do with the depth of this grid.
What did he do in 2018: Roczen finished 18th in the championship on 102 points after getting injured at San Diego and missing the final 11 races. He had finished second twice in the first six races and he had a third as well. He finished third in the Motocross championship and he had two victories.
What to expect in 2019: Everything hangs on whether Roczen can stay healthy. He can push Tomac for the title but Roczen has not been the same since his injury in 2017 and it could be a case where Roczen does not have that last bit of aggression to take a title from Tomac, Musquin and Anderson.
Monster Energy Yamaha Factory Racing
Aaron Plessinger: #7 Yamaha YZ450FWhat did he do in 2018: Plessinger won the 250 West championship with four victories and he won the 250 Motocross championship with 11 victories from 24 races.
What to expect in 2019: It is going to be a tough fight for rookie of the year this season between Plessinger, Savatgy and Hill and it would have been better is Osborne was healthy. I think every race could have a great battle between these three somewhere between fifth and tenth. The one thing against Plessinger is Yamaha has not won a 450 Supercross race since James Stewart at Daytona in 2012.
What did he do in 2018: Barcia rounded out the top ten in the championship with 177 points after missing six races midseason. His best finish was second to Tomac at Glendale. He was fourth in the Motocross championship and he swept the final round, the Ironman Nationals.
What to expect in 2019: Barcia got a big opportunity last year filling in for the injured Davi Millsaps and now he has a full-time ride with factory Yamaha. He had a great start until his injury. It will be a tough battle between he and Plessinger to see who is top Yamaha rider.
Dean Wilson: #15 Husqvarna FC450
What did he do in 2018: Wilson finished seventh in the championship despite scoring no points in the season opener and missing the next race at Houston. His best finish was second to Musquin at Indianapolis.
What to expect in 2019: Wilson kind of takes over the vacancy Chad Reed left as a privateer Husqvarna rider. Wilson is a bit younger but I can't see him finishing in the top ten of the championship.
Monday, December 31, 2018
Musings From the Weekend: 2019 New Year's Resolutions
This is it: The final day of 2019. There hasn't been much going on in the final weeks of December. In recent news, McLaren appears to be joining Super GT, Sébastien Loeb has joined Hyundai, Christina Nielsen will drive for Meyer Shank Racing in the 24 Hours of Daytona and Christopher Haase will drive for Starworks at Daytona. Before moving on, there are two articles I read that I thought were really well done. The first was Marshall Pruett's year of surprises piece and the other is Will Buxton's piece looking back at Fernando Alonso's career in Formula One. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.
2019 New Year's Resolutions
It is the end of the year and it is time to set our expectations for the New Year.
We have a lot of time until the IndyCar, NASCAR and Formula One seasons to start to name a few series but instead of waiting until the middle of February or the middle of March to set the mindset, let's do it now. Let's take a moment to take into consideration what will happen in 2019 and weigh what we should expect. I think it is important to be realistic and not set the bar too high where it is more likely to end up disappointment than pleased.
The same goes for the series. I think series need to set the expectations accordingly. The last thing a series should do is set the numbers too high whether that be in terms of attendance, viewership or social media attention. There are far greater consequences if a series does not live up to its expectations than if our expectations are not met.
We are going to look what series and fans should work on in 2019.
IndyCar: Don't Get Complacent
A lot of things have gone IndyCar's way in the last 18 months.
We saw the universal aero kit introduced without many, if any, problems. The racing was great with some areas for improvement but it was a gain for the series.
Besides the aero kit, the series started testing an aeroscreen and while it has not been tested since May and while there has been no set schedule for implementation the series has made a step in this safety device. It may not be moving as fast as some would like but progress has been made.
There have been new teams. For half a decade it seemed like IndyCar was shedding teams left and right and the party was dying down. It was a concern and thankfully it appeared to have been righted. Carlin expanded to two full-time entries. Harding Racing became a full-time team. Michael Shank expanded his operation to IndyCar, six years after initially planning to in 2012. Juncos Racing ran most of the 2018 season. DragonSpeed will run part-time in 2019. Scuderia Corsa has been testing the waters. Then there is McLaren, which will take on its own Indianapolis 500 effort in 2019 after running in partnership with Andretti Autosport in 2017.
Gateway and Portland returned to the schedule with much fanfare. Laguna Seca will be back in 2019. The series will make its first trip to Circuit of the Americas. Surfers Paradise is having conversation of bringing IndyCar back.
I guess what I am saying is I don't want IndyCar to forget where it came from. I don't want the series to forget the struggles during the early days of the DW12-era. I don't want the series to think it is all gravy from here and teams are going to be coming in every year from all different areas. I don't want the series to think returning to places of yore will result in 50,000 people turning up on race day.
I want the series to be on top of any future hurdles whether it comes with the next generation of car, which could be set to come in 2021, or making sure teams are properly compensated and the Leader Circle program is able to accommodate new entries as well.
The series still needs a title sponsor, which we think will be here before February, there are still races that struggle with attendance, most notably the ovals. There is no guarantee Pocono will last beyond 2019. Who knows if local pressure forces Belle Isle and Toronto off the schedule. Long Beach does not have a title sponsor! Long Beach of all races!
It is easy to put your feet up but this is no cakewalk for IndyCar. The last things the series can afford is to get caught out when faced with adversity. Not saying that will happen to the series but it is a good reminder that just because things are good today does not mean it will be that way tomorrow.
IndyCar Fans: Be Patient with the New Television Deal
Congratulations IndyCar fans, you got what you wanted. NBC is the home for IndyCar. Every race from the Indianapolis 500 to St. Petersburg, Laguna Seca to Long Beach and Toronto to Texas will be on an NBC property. There will be races on network NBC. The Indianapolis 500 has a new home and one that has been celebrated for years. That doesn't mean problem solved and move on.
Don't expect the numbers to skyrocket with this change. Don't expect any gains. We are in an odd time and motorsports is shifting. Less people are watching across the board. A network switch will not change a bigger trend that is beyond the series.
Year one may see things remain stagnant and that does not mean NBC is not doing good enough but it could just be how things are in this crazy world. You cannot change the ratings are your own. It is greater than you and me. All you can do is enjoy the race in front of you and not worry about the numbers. That shouldn't dictate how you feel about this series that you love.
NASCAR: Admit a Mistake Without Spin
NASCAR changes a lot a lot of the time.
Something always has to be tweaked, tinkered, fixed, massaged, relaxed, tightened, flipped, flopped, finagled, erased, adjusted, doctored, developed, enhanced, re-engineered, reimagined, reconsidered or retooled.
And yet the racing is always the best it has ever been!
I want NASCAR to just say it is wrong. If this new aero package doesn't work I want the series to say, "Hey, we thought we could get 85 lead changes in every race from Texas to Loudon to Homestead to Las Vegas and it didn't work out." And then leave it at that. Not try and sell it as being some wondrous thing.
Even with the Playoff/Chase format, I want the series to admit its flaws. Just say, "Hey, this might not necessarily feel right and it does have holes when it comes to deciding who the best driver in a series is."
Just be honest. Don't keep saying the racing is the greatest it has ever been when you are completely changing aero regulations, race format, championship format and more. It is clear the series has a few insecurities if it is revamping everything every two or three years. We can all see it. We have all had siblings, cousins or family members who were the same way and had a different hairstyle, color or new tattoo every year at Thanksgiving. NASCAR is that family member: Constantly changing and never happy.
Just say you are wrong once in a while and have no shame in returning to who you are.
NASCAR Fans: Keep 2020 Calendar Expectations in Check
There is a lot hope over the 2020 calendar. The five-year contract will be up and everyone seems to think NASCAR has a big shake up in store.
However, people have to keep a few things in mind.
One: International Speedway Corporation and Speedway Motorsports Inc. control 20 of the 23 tracks and 31 of the 36 races. Neither is going to budge and give up races. ISC has 18 races and SMI has 13 races. If there is going to be any changes, those numbers are staying the same.
Two: The schedule isn't going to be shaken up that much. Homestead is going to be the finale. What other track can host a race in late-November? Martinsville isn't getting a night race. Las Vegas isn't moving to July. Pocono isn't moving to October. The schedule will look pretty to similar to how it has looked for the last 25 years.
Three: Weeknight races are not likely to happen. No one has explained how weeknight races solve any of the issue. It is different. It is hopeful more people watch but instead of racing 36 of 40 weeks, the probably is moved from being a weekly thing to having it be an occasional short week where the teams have to go to one track, be there Friday through Sunday, pack everything up and get to the shop and then to another track for a Wednesday or Thursday event and then get maybe an additional three days off and then return to the weekly grind?
How does that benefit anyone and how many times could you afford to do that?
Where could you do that? What places want to do it?
Richmond and Martinsville could be run in consecutive weeks but would either track want that? You can't run at Loudon on a Wednesday after Watkins Glen. You wouldn't run at Fontana the Thursday after Sonoma.
Four: (Insert One of the Following Tracks Below Here) will not be on the schedule:
Gateway, Nashville, Rockingham, North Wilkesboro, Austin, Barber, South Boston, Myrtle Beach, Road Atlanta, Bowman Gray Stadium, Eldora, Knoxville, Lime Rock Park, Texas World, Pikes Peak, Memphis, Nazareth, Indianapolis Raceway Park, any street circuit, Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez.
Formula One: Keep Common Sense in Mind
Liberty Media is still in its infancy as superior ruler of Formula One and while the new bosses have done some good things for the series, it has keep in mind the limits of the series.
There can only be so many races and there are only so many places that can host a race. The series has committed to Vietnam for 2020 but other places such as Denmark, the Netherlands and Argentina to name a few.
There are also places the series should not turns its back on in favor of "destination events." As much as the series chase people it should not run from the lifeblood of the series. This is Silverstone, Monza, Spa-Francorchamps, Canada, Germany, Brazil and Japan to name a few. These are venues where people turn up and are passionate crowds. Silverstone is jam-packed on Friday and it would be overflowing if there was practice on Thursday as well. Canada is sold out all three days. Suzuka is a wonderful atmosphere. Monza goes back to the beginning of Formula One and is the ultimate venue in terms of speed and raw emotion when it comes to the tifosi.
The series cannot sacrifice what it is in hopes of becoming greater. Formula One has to realize what it has, how great it is and it is not worth trading away for some corporate crowd at a race around a resort in a tropical climate.
Formula One Fans: Be Nicer to Lewis Hamilton
I might catch flack for this one but it seems like Lewis Hamilton gets way more crap than he deserves and one person comes to mind when I think about this: Michael Schumacher.
Schumacher had his flaws and I think people grew tired of him but then he suffered a skiing accident and we have only come to appreciate him after such a disastrous event occurred. For years, Schumacher was dragged over the coals for his demeanor. Some of it may have been justified but it was used to fully discredit the German. I feel like no driver's accomplishments have been casted as impure as much as Schumacher's. Whether it was because of his aggressive nature or the technical wonder team around him at Ferrari or his clear delineation as the number one drivers and preferential treatment, it always seemed to wash over his accomplishments.
However, now that Schumacher is no longer in the public life and we are unsure of his capabilities it seems the stances have softened. People aren't as critical. People are starting to realize he has seven championships and 91 grand prix victories and how great of an accomplishment that was to achieve.
It seems like Hamilton gets similar criticism. While Schumacher's criticism was directed at on-track and race-related blips, Hamilton is chastised for everything. He wins a race; people are upset about his pose on the podium. He qualifies third; he isn't angry enough about not being on pole position. He hangs out with a pop star in New York; he is distracted. He wears a coat two sizes too big; he is too exuberant. He eats a chocolate doughnut for breakfast; he is too excessive.
The man can't catch a break. I can't help but think what will happen when Hamilton retires. I think more people will be happy to see him gone but after ten years they will start to come around and realize it was silly to pick apart the man as much as we did while he was a driver.
Instead of coming full circle a decade down the line, let's just enjoy him for who is he now and recognize where is among the all-time greats. These days will not repeat and we better enjoy now and not regret we did not make the most of them later.
IMSA: Be Aggressive
With the DPi and LMP2 cars split into separate classes, it is time for IMSA to get aggressive. As much as I would have rather seen IMSA just boosted LMP2 cars and have them not necessarily match the exact WEC regulations because after all, why would the IMSA LMP2 cars have to run exactly like the WEC LMP2 cars? The GTLM class isn't a mirror image of GTE-Pro, why would LMP2 be the same?
But that is behind us and we now have a dedicated pro-am prototype class, albeit much smaller than I think anyone would wish.
Open up the DPi cars. There is no reason to keep the shackles on these cars. If you are splitting up the prototypes class then one mind as well be far superior than the other especially when one is designated as a pro-am class. This isn't like the days of LMP1 and LMP2 in American Le Mans Series when Audi was in one and Porsche was in the other. All the manufactures are in one class and the other is for chassis manufactures with a spec engine.
IMSA could have something great on its hands if it handles it right. While the WEC is down to one manufacture in LMP1 and has revealed the hypercar regulations but has yet to receive any official commitments, IMSA has multiple manufactures and it seems like the door is still open for some more.
Le Mans is great but if a manufacture is weighing its options between the uncertain WEC hypercar regulations and IMSA's successful DPi class, why wouldn't it jump into IMSA? The WEC is a world championship and will take you to China, Japan and Brazil but the other option could be an American program at a lower price.
I think this is IMSA's time to capitalize on the class split and become enticing to undecided manufactures.
IMSA Fans: Come to Terms With Coverage Spread Over Multiple Channels
Like IndyCar, IMSA has a new television home. Like Fox, IMSA is going to have its races split over multiple networks and streaming options.
It is bound to happen when you have a 24-hour race, a 12-hour race and a ten-hour race and it is a crowded block. There is Premier League from August to May, NHL from October to June and then there is NASCAR and IndyCar. There is the Tour de France in July. You got to share the time.
The races are going to be on any one of four options that has "NBC" in the title whether it be NBCSN, NBC, CNBC or the NBC Sports app.
It is not a bad thing that things are split over multiple networks and there has been a way to print out, write down, paint on the wall or carve into stone what race will be broadcasted on what network this season. It isn't that hard to change the channel at the appropriate times.
Winners From While We Were Away
Alexander Sims won the Formula E season opener from Saudi Arabia.
Franck Lagorce and Jean-Baptiste Dubourg split the Andros Trophy races from Andorra.
Coming Up This Weekend
The Supercross season opener from Anaheim.
The Dakar Rally begins on Sunday.
2019 New Year's Resolutions
It is the end of the year and it is time to set our expectations for the New Year.
We have a lot of time until the IndyCar, NASCAR and Formula One seasons to start to name a few series but instead of waiting until the middle of February or the middle of March to set the mindset, let's do it now. Let's take a moment to take into consideration what will happen in 2019 and weigh what we should expect. I think it is important to be realistic and not set the bar too high where it is more likely to end up disappointment than pleased.
The same goes for the series. I think series need to set the expectations accordingly. The last thing a series should do is set the numbers too high whether that be in terms of attendance, viewership or social media attention. There are far greater consequences if a series does not live up to its expectations than if our expectations are not met.
We are going to look what series and fans should work on in 2019.
IndyCar: Don't Get Complacent
A lot of things have gone IndyCar's way in the last 18 months.
We saw the universal aero kit introduced without many, if any, problems. The racing was great with some areas for improvement but it was a gain for the series.
Besides the aero kit, the series started testing an aeroscreen and while it has not been tested since May and while there has been no set schedule for implementation the series has made a step in this safety device. It may not be moving as fast as some would like but progress has been made.
There have been new teams. For half a decade it seemed like IndyCar was shedding teams left and right and the party was dying down. It was a concern and thankfully it appeared to have been righted. Carlin expanded to two full-time entries. Harding Racing became a full-time team. Michael Shank expanded his operation to IndyCar, six years after initially planning to in 2012. Juncos Racing ran most of the 2018 season. DragonSpeed will run part-time in 2019. Scuderia Corsa has been testing the waters. Then there is McLaren, which will take on its own Indianapolis 500 effort in 2019 after running in partnership with Andretti Autosport in 2017.
Gateway and Portland returned to the schedule with much fanfare. Laguna Seca will be back in 2019. The series will make its first trip to Circuit of the Americas. Surfers Paradise is having conversation of bringing IndyCar back.
I guess what I am saying is I don't want IndyCar to forget where it came from. I don't want the series to forget the struggles during the early days of the DW12-era. I don't want the series to think it is all gravy from here and teams are going to be coming in every year from all different areas. I don't want the series to think returning to places of yore will result in 50,000 people turning up on race day.
I want the series to be on top of any future hurdles whether it comes with the next generation of car, which could be set to come in 2021, or making sure teams are properly compensated and the Leader Circle program is able to accommodate new entries as well.
The series still needs a title sponsor, which we think will be here before February, there are still races that struggle with attendance, most notably the ovals. There is no guarantee Pocono will last beyond 2019. Who knows if local pressure forces Belle Isle and Toronto off the schedule. Long Beach does not have a title sponsor! Long Beach of all races!
It is easy to put your feet up but this is no cakewalk for IndyCar. The last things the series can afford is to get caught out when faced with adversity. Not saying that will happen to the series but it is a good reminder that just because things are good today does not mean it will be that way tomorrow.
IndyCar Fans: Be Patient with the New Television Deal
Congratulations IndyCar fans, you got what you wanted. NBC is the home for IndyCar. Every race from the Indianapolis 500 to St. Petersburg, Laguna Seca to Long Beach and Toronto to Texas will be on an NBC property. There will be races on network NBC. The Indianapolis 500 has a new home and one that has been celebrated for years. That doesn't mean problem solved and move on.
Don't expect the numbers to skyrocket with this change. Don't expect any gains. We are in an odd time and motorsports is shifting. Less people are watching across the board. A network switch will not change a bigger trend that is beyond the series.
Year one may see things remain stagnant and that does not mean NBC is not doing good enough but it could just be how things are in this crazy world. You cannot change the ratings are your own. It is greater than you and me. All you can do is enjoy the race in front of you and not worry about the numbers. That shouldn't dictate how you feel about this series that you love.
NASCAR: Admit a Mistake Without Spin
NASCAR changes a lot a lot of the time.
Something always has to be tweaked, tinkered, fixed, massaged, relaxed, tightened, flipped, flopped, finagled, erased, adjusted, doctored, developed, enhanced, re-engineered, reimagined, reconsidered or retooled.
And yet the racing is always the best it has ever been!
I want NASCAR to just say it is wrong. If this new aero package doesn't work I want the series to say, "Hey, we thought we could get 85 lead changes in every race from Texas to Loudon to Homestead to Las Vegas and it didn't work out." And then leave it at that. Not try and sell it as being some wondrous thing.
Even with the Playoff/Chase format, I want the series to admit its flaws. Just say, "Hey, this might not necessarily feel right and it does have holes when it comes to deciding who the best driver in a series is."
Just be honest. Don't keep saying the racing is the greatest it has ever been when you are completely changing aero regulations, race format, championship format and more. It is clear the series has a few insecurities if it is revamping everything every two or three years. We can all see it. We have all had siblings, cousins or family members who were the same way and had a different hairstyle, color or new tattoo every year at Thanksgiving. NASCAR is that family member: Constantly changing and never happy.
Just say you are wrong once in a while and have no shame in returning to who you are.
NASCAR Fans: Keep 2020 Calendar Expectations in Check
There is a lot hope over the 2020 calendar. The five-year contract will be up and everyone seems to think NASCAR has a big shake up in store.
However, people have to keep a few things in mind.
One: International Speedway Corporation and Speedway Motorsports Inc. control 20 of the 23 tracks and 31 of the 36 races. Neither is going to budge and give up races. ISC has 18 races and SMI has 13 races. If there is going to be any changes, those numbers are staying the same.
Two: The schedule isn't going to be shaken up that much. Homestead is going to be the finale. What other track can host a race in late-November? Martinsville isn't getting a night race. Las Vegas isn't moving to July. Pocono isn't moving to October. The schedule will look pretty to similar to how it has looked for the last 25 years.
Three: Weeknight races are not likely to happen. No one has explained how weeknight races solve any of the issue. It is different. It is hopeful more people watch but instead of racing 36 of 40 weeks, the probably is moved from being a weekly thing to having it be an occasional short week where the teams have to go to one track, be there Friday through Sunday, pack everything up and get to the shop and then to another track for a Wednesday or Thursday event and then get maybe an additional three days off and then return to the weekly grind?
How does that benefit anyone and how many times could you afford to do that?
Where could you do that? What places want to do it?
Richmond and Martinsville could be run in consecutive weeks but would either track want that? You can't run at Loudon on a Wednesday after Watkins Glen. You wouldn't run at Fontana the Thursday after Sonoma.
Four: (Insert One of the Following Tracks Below Here) will not be on the schedule:
Gateway, Nashville, Rockingham, North Wilkesboro, Austin, Barber, South Boston, Myrtle Beach, Road Atlanta, Bowman Gray Stadium, Eldora, Knoxville, Lime Rock Park, Texas World, Pikes Peak, Memphis, Nazareth, Indianapolis Raceway Park, any street circuit, Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez.
Formula One: Keep Common Sense in Mind
Liberty Media is still in its infancy as superior ruler of Formula One and while the new bosses have done some good things for the series, it has keep in mind the limits of the series.
There can only be so many races and there are only so many places that can host a race. The series has committed to Vietnam for 2020 but other places such as Denmark, the Netherlands and Argentina to name a few.
There are also places the series should not turns its back on in favor of "destination events." As much as the series chase people it should not run from the lifeblood of the series. This is Silverstone, Monza, Spa-Francorchamps, Canada, Germany, Brazil and Japan to name a few. These are venues where people turn up and are passionate crowds. Silverstone is jam-packed on Friday and it would be overflowing if there was practice on Thursday as well. Canada is sold out all three days. Suzuka is a wonderful atmosphere. Monza goes back to the beginning of Formula One and is the ultimate venue in terms of speed and raw emotion when it comes to the tifosi.
The series cannot sacrifice what it is in hopes of becoming greater. Formula One has to realize what it has, how great it is and it is not worth trading away for some corporate crowd at a race around a resort in a tropical climate.
Formula One Fans: Be Nicer to Lewis Hamilton
I might catch flack for this one but it seems like Lewis Hamilton gets way more crap than he deserves and one person comes to mind when I think about this: Michael Schumacher.
Schumacher had his flaws and I think people grew tired of him but then he suffered a skiing accident and we have only come to appreciate him after such a disastrous event occurred. For years, Schumacher was dragged over the coals for his demeanor. Some of it may have been justified but it was used to fully discredit the German. I feel like no driver's accomplishments have been casted as impure as much as Schumacher's. Whether it was because of his aggressive nature or the technical wonder team around him at Ferrari or his clear delineation as the number one drivers and preferential treatment, it always seemed to wash over his accomplishments.
However, now that Schumacher is no longer in the public life and we are unsure of his capabilities it seems the stances have softened. People aren't as critical. People are starting to realize he has seven championships and 91 grand prix victories and how great of an accomplishment that was to achieve.
It seems like Hamilton gets similar criticism. While Schumacher's criticism was directed at on-track and race-related blips, Hamilton is chastised for everything. He wins a race; people are upset about his pose on the podium. He qualifies third; he isn't angry enough about not being on pole position. He hangs out with a pop star in New York; he is distracted. He wears a coat two sizes too big; he is too exuberant. He eats a chocolate doughnut for breakfast; he is too excessive.
The man can't catch a break. I can't help but think what will happen when Hamilton retires. I think more people will be happy to see him gone but after ten years they will start to come around and realize it was silly to pick apart the man as much as we did while he was a driver.
Instead of coming full circle a decade down the line, let's just enjoy him for who is he now and recognize where is among the all-time greats. These days will not repeat and we better enjoy now and not regret we did not make the most of them later.
IMSA: Be Aggressive
With the DPi and LMP2 cars split into separate classes, it is time for IMSA to get aggressive. As much as I would have rather seen IMSA just boosted LMP2 cars and have them not necessarily match the exact WEC regulations because after all, why would the IMSA LMP2 cars have to run exactly like the WEC LMP2 cars? The GTLM class isn't a mirror image of GTE-Pro, why would LMP2 be the same?
But that is behind us and we now have a dedicated pro-am prototype class, albeit much smaller than I think anyone would wish.
Open up the DPi cars. There is no reason to keep the shackles on these cars. If you are splitting up the prototypes class then one mind as well be far superior than the other especially when one is designated as a pro-am class. This isn't like the days of LMP1 and LMP2 in American Le Mans Series when Audi was in one and Porsche was in the other. All the manufactures are in one class and the other is for chassis manufactures with a spec engine.
IMSA could have something great on its hands if it handles it right. While the WEC is down to one manufacture in LMP1 and has revealed the hypercar regulations but has yet to receive any official commitments, IMSA has multiple manufactures and it seems like the door is still open for some more.
Le Mans is great but if a manufacture is weighing its options between the uncertain WEC hypercar regulations and IMSA's successful DPi class, why wouldn't it jump into IMSA? The WEC is a world championship and will take you to China, Japan and Brazil but the other option could be an American program at a lower price.
I think this is IMSA's time to capitalize on the class split and become enticing to undecided manufactures.
IMSA Fans: Come to Terms With Coverage Spread Over Multiple Channels
Like IndyCar, IMSA has a new television home. Like Fox, IMSA is going to have its races split over multiple networks and streaming options.
It is bound to happen when you have a 24-hour race, a 12-hour race and a ten-hour race and it is a crowded block. There is Premier League from August to May, NHL from October to June and then there is NASCAR and IndyCar. There is the Tour de France in July. You got to share the time.
The races are going to be on any one of four options that has "NBC" in the title whether it be NBCSN, NBC, CNBC or the NBC Sports app.
It is not a bad thing that things are split over multiple networks and there has been a way to print out, write down, paint on the wall or carve into stone what race will be broadcasted on what network this season. It isn't that hard to change the channel at the appropriate times.
Winners From While We Were Away
Alexander Sims won the Formula E season opener from Saudi Arabia.
Franck Lagorce and Jean-Baptiste Dubourg split the Andros Trophy races from Andorra.
Coming Up This Weekend
The Supercross season opener from Anaheim.
The Dakar Rally begins on Sunday.
Friday, December 28, 2018
2019 IndyCar Predictions
We have reached the final predictions for 2019 and it is IndyCar. The 2018 season saw a big boost for the series with the new universal aero kit, new teams on the grid and great races. It appears the momentum is still on IndyCar's side heading into 2019 with more new teams joining the series, some teams expanding their operations and an exciting rookie class joining an already highly talented grid. Plenty could happen in 2019, here are 12 things I think will occur.
1. There will be multiple first time race winners in 2019
In combination with this year's rookie class, there are a handful of veteran drivers looking for their first victory.
Let's start with the rookies as this year's class has a European ladder vs. Road to Indy system feel to it. The most notable name is Felix Rosenqvist, who was a European Formula Three champion, won races in Formula E, won in Blancpain GT Series, was competitive in Super GT and Super Formula and yes, he did run a bit of Indy Lights in 2016 and won three races but for the most part he is a European developed driver and the Swede has landed at Chip Ganassi Racing.
Santino Ferrucci will become full-time in 2019 with Dale Coyne Racing. Ferrucci contested three IndyCar rounds last year while his Formula Two season ended prematurely after an unceremonious divorce with Trident. In 23 Formula Two starts, Ferrucci's best finish was sixth and in 24 GP3 Series starts, he had a third in the 2016 sprint race from Spa-Francorchamps and he finished fourth in sprint races at Silverstone and Hockenheim but he never finished better than ninth in a feature race in GP3 and Formula Two.
Pato O'Ward is coming off the Indy Lights championship and he was tremendous in his IndyCar debut in the 2018 finale from Sonoma. The Mexican driver started fifth and finished ninth. The good news for O'Ward is he has experience at 13 of the 16 tracks on the 2019 schedule. Eleven of those tracks came from Road to Indy experience, including Laguna Seca. The other two come from when he ran in Prototype Challenge in 2017. The only tracks he doesn't have experience at are Long Beach, Texas and Pocono. O'Ward has won at ten of the 13 tracks he has experience at.
Colton Herta was the vice-champion to his teammate O'Ward in Indy Lights in 2018 and he too made his IndyCar debut at Sonoma. While O'Ward out qualified and finished ahead of Herta, the American started 19th and finished 20th. Like O'Ward, Herta has experience at most of the tracks on the 2019 schedule with Herta having run at ten of 16 circuits. Of those ten tracks, he has won at five of them. O'Ward and Herta will remain teammates in IndyCar with both drivers running Honda-powered cars for Harding Steinbrenner Racing
Then there is Marcus Ericsson, who comes over from Formula One. Ericsson will be driving for Schmidt Peterson Motorsports to fill in for Robert Wickens. Ericsson is coming off his best championship finish in Formula One after he finished 17th on nine points. Other Circuit of the Americas, the other 15 tracks on the schedule will be new to Ericsson.
It will be interesting to see how this rookie class plays out because it could answer the question about whether the competition of European junior series trains a driver better than the Road to Indy and that perceived talent gap means track experience does not outweigh overall driving talent. At the same time, if the likes of O'Ward and Herta do run better than or at the same level as at least Ferrucci and Ericsson then it will bode well for the Road to Indy system and might convince people that running a year of Indy Lights would be better for a young driver in Formula Three or Formula Two then jumping right into IndyCar.
I think Rosenqvist will win at least one race. He should be in Formula One and his bit of Indy Lights experience will help him out. Ovals will still be somewhat new to him. He did run at Phoenix and Indianapolis but that is not much experience.
I am not sure any of the other rookies can win a race. Ferrucci was respectable in his four IndyCar starts but I am not sure he will be the best Dale Coyne Racing driver most of the time let alone good enough to win a race. Ericsson is with a team capable of winning but he may have a learning curve and it might take him a quarter of the season to get comfortable. Harding Steinbrenner Racing should be in better position with Honda engines and Andretti dampers but it will be a monumental task to take now the senior team of Andretti Autosport.
As for veterans, I think Zach Veach can win an oval race. Veach made big gains in the second half of the season and we know Andretti Autosport puts out great cars at Indianapolis, Pocono and the team has a history of short track success. If Veach wins in 2019, it will most likely be on an oval. I am not sure he is at the level of teammates Alexander Rossi and Ryan Hunter-Reay to win on a road course yet.
Ed Carpenter Racing will have two drivers looking for their first career victories. Ed Jones will be the road course driver in the #20 Chevrolet and he will run the Indianapolis 500 in a one-off while Spencer Pigot will be full-time for the second consecutive year in the #21 Chevrolet. Jones had a bit of a rough sophomore season at Chip Ganassi Racing. He did have a few good days but he never really seemed to win the team over. Ed Carpenter Racing can win on road/street courses and while he will not be full-time Jones will have time to focus on the road and street courses. It would not be surprising if he pulled one out. Pigot was a bit wishy-washy in 2018 but the results got better toward the end of the year. If Pigot improves on qualifying results then he will get himself into a better position for race victories. Although, I feel like Pigot is in the same boat as Veach and if he were to win in 2019, it would most likely be on an oval.
And if there is one more name we cannot rule out it is Fernando Alonso in the Indianapolis 500. This year's effort will be a bit different. It will not come with the support of Andretti Autosport and it will be with Chevrolet engines. There is no guarantee Alonso will replicate his pace of 2017 but if there is one thing we know about Alonso is he is determined. He is going for something greater than a World Drivers' Championship and the Indianapolis 500 is the final leg of the Triple Crown. It is there for the taking and I think Alonso will be toward the sharp end of the field on Memorial Day weekend.
2. There will be no more than three cars failing to qualify for the Indianapolis 500
It is December 28th and we have almost a field of 33 on paper and still another half dozen realistic entries. This will not be a year of scrambling to fill the field but it appears 2019 will be another year of bumping. The only question is how many cars will not be making the race.
Some are coming up with as many as 40 entries. Everyone seems to think 38 is possible but we have to remember it comes down to the engine manufactures. It sounds like one has already said the limit is 19 and I bet that manufacture is Honda. Honda has gone over and beyond the call of duty the last two years. If Chevrolet matches that then there will be 38 entries. However, Chevrolet has fewer teams and fewer teams means fewer one-off entries.
I think we are looking at most 36 entries, which would be one more than 2018. If it was an even split than each manufacture would have 18 entries but I bet this falls at 19 Honda entries and 17 Chevrolet entries.
Despite not reaching our greatest predictions, 36 entries is a great thing and as much as I want 40 entries and beyond I realize that there are production factors that keeps the entry list a bit lower than it probably could be and that is not a bad thing. These are good days for IndyCar and the Indianapolis 500. For the better part of two decades we have had worrisome experiences with Indianapolis 500 entries and bumping. The fact that it appears we will have bumping no matter what in December is a wonderful thing.
3. Passing will be down in over half the street course races but up in over half the oval races
The universal aero kit may have had an argument for rookie of the year in 2018 over Robert Wickens because the production of the new bodywork was better than I think most people anticipated.
The first race at St. Petersburg had 336 total passes and 283 passes for position. Long Beach had 200 total passes and 134 passes for position. Four of five street course races had over 100 passes with the lone exception being the first Belle Isle race, which had 96 total passes, 82 for position. The next Belle Isle race had 144 total passes and Toronto had 184 passes.
The ovals were a weaker area for the universal aero kit compared to its two predecessors.
Phoenix was better than the previous two years with 280 passes and 98 for position. Somehow 633 passes in the Indianapolis 500, 428 for position, was a dismal performance. Texas had 688 passes, 242 for position. Iowa nearly broke into the four-figures with 955 passes but it had fewer passes for position than Texas with 234. Pocono had fewer passes than four street course races at 135 passes and it had fewer passes for position than every street course race with only 53. Gateway ended the season with 396 passes, 137 for position.
The good news for the ovals is IndyCar has been tweaking the aero kit in hopes of improving overtaking especially at Indianapolis and Pocono. Those are the two races where I think we could see significant jumps in 2019. Gateway was better in 2018 but there is definitely room for improvement. I am not sure there can be any more passing at Iowa and Texas could be marginally better but I am not sure it could see much of a gain.
The street courses are a bit of a crapshoot. We saw passing numbers on street courses we had never seen before. Every race was dazzling in terms of street courses from years ago. I think we are bound to see a step back on the street courses. Are we really going to see 336 passes again at St. Petersburg or 283 passes at Long Beach? We kind of saw the decline start during the 2018 season. At the first two races shattered the 200 passes mark but none of the final three street courses broke 200 and only one got over 150 passes.
There is still the possibility that passing could be down on street courses and the races are still fantastic. Would anyone complain if St. Petersburg only had 210 passes? What if Toronto had 180 passes? The numbers might be down but that doesn't necessarily mean we have to be alarmed.
It was a dangerous thing when IndyCar started publishing passing statistics because we really don't know what they mean. A large number doesn't mean it is a great race and a small number doesn't mean a bad race. We should not be slave to the numbers and let them dictate whether a race is good or not. I hope our critical commentary does not need numbers to steer how we feel about a race.
4. Simon Pagenaud wins multiple races and more than double his podium finishes from 2018
Pagenaud did not win in 2018 despite ending the season with ten consecutive top ten finishes and 14 top ten finishes in 17 starts.
While he had that stats line and finished sixth in the championship, there wasn't a race Pagenaud should have won in 2018. The two races he finished runner-up in he probably deserved no better than second. Scott Dixon was the best driver at Texas and Dixon was better than Pagenaud at Toronto. The Frenchman may have been gifted an extra position had teammate Josef Newgarden not slapped the wall while coming to the green flag for the restart while in the lead.
Plenty of parallels were drawn between this season and Pagenaud's first season at Penske in 2015, which coincided with the introduction of the manufacture-specific aero kits but Pagenaud was borderline championship-caliber in 2018 while his 2015 definitely showed a few growing pains.
He only led 31 laps in 2018, 26 of which came at Texas but he had the fourth best average finish and completed the fifth most laps. His only retirement was completely out of his control when Graham Rahal ran into the back of Pagenaud in turn one on lap one at Long Beach and Pagenaud had started third. That ended 22 consecutive races of running at the finish. Prior to that streak, Pagenaud had a 23 consecutive finish streak.
Pagenaud is going to finish races and he is bound to have his weekends again where he starts on the front row and leads two-thirds of a race on his way to victory. Not to forget mentioning that Pagenaud is better on ovals than he was prior to his Team Penske days and he is just as likely to win at Indianapolis, Texas and Pocono as he is to win at Road America, Toronto and Mid-Ohio.
5. Will Power will start at least one race outside the top ten
Power has started 27 consecutive races in the top ten. The last time he did not start in the top ten was in the first Belle Isle race in 2017 when he started 11th. Power has started outside the top ten in three of 65 starts since 2015 and that does not include his pole position for the 2016 season opener at St. Petersburg, which Power was forced to withdraw from on the morning of the race due to an inner-ear condition.
Power was a qualifying master in 2018. He started 15 of 17 races in the top five and his worst starting position was seventh at Sonoma, the only time he didn't make the Fast Six.
He isn't going to slip up on a road/street course. He is too good. You can pretty much pencil him into the top six at every road/street course and if you are penciling him into the top six, you mind as well put him in the top three. Penske also has a way of producing some good cars in oval qualifying trim and Power does have the benefit of Penske having deeper pockets than some other teams. Penske is able to focus on qualifying set up more than some other teams and on top of that Power can overcome wrecking a car in qualifying because Penske has spares while other teams might not and have to be conservative in qualifying to focus on the race.
While Power has a lot going for him, IndyCar can be a bit unpredictable. There have been plenty of occasions where a fast driver is caught out during a qualifying group with an untimely yellow and someone you thought would make the Fast Six all of a sudden hasn't made it out of group one. It happened to Power in 2015 at Long Beach. There could be an oval qualifying session where Power just gets the wrong conditions and has a head wind that he can't overcome or he has a twitch and is forced to get out of the throttle and that drops him down the starting order.
Power is going to win plenty of pole positions in 2019 but he will have one uncharacteristic starting position.
6. Sébastien Bourdais has at least three podium finishes
Bourdais has not had three podium finishes in a season since 2013 when he had three consecutive podium finishes between the Toronto doubleheader and Mid-Ohio.
It was impractical to expect Bourdais to match his Champ Car numbers when he returned to IndyCar. He has been solid driver during the DW12-era but he has yet to have a season that is shadow of his previous success. He has won a race in five consecutive seasons, something only Dixon and Power can claim but Bourdais has not strung together consistent finishes at the front. He has two podium finishes in four of the last five seasons.
Bourdais has had some close calls with three podium finishes. In 2014, he finished fourth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and the first Houston race, which was a bit of a gift after Graham Rahal got into Tony Kanaan under caution. His two victories were his only podium finishes in 2015. Last year, Bourdais led 60 laps from pole position at Phoenix but he could not overcome an early penalty for clipping a crew member and finished 13th. He had to start last at Mid-Ohio and put on a performance working his way to sixth in a caution-free race. He finished fourth at Pocono and he was less than a second behind Dixon for third.
There are plenty of places where Bourdais can get results and Dale Coyne Racing might be the smallest team on the grid but they get the most out of what they got. I am not sure he can win three consecutive races at St. Petersburg but what is stopping him? He probably should have been on the podium at Long Beach as well in 2018 had it not been for an untimely yellow and not getting to pit lane in time. Coyne has also established a dangerously quick superspeedway program.
It feels like this fairy tale is bound to come to an end. Nothing lasts forever but Bourdais finished seventh in the championship last year and I think he and Dale Coyne Racing aren't done yet.
7. Both Harding Steinbrenner Racing drivers score more points per start than Gabby Chaves
A lot has changed in a short period of time for Harding Racing. The team finished ninth on debut in the 2017 Indianapolis 500 and then finished second in the team's second race a few weeks later at Texas. After three oval races the team expanded to a full-time operation in 2018 and it started eighth at St. Petersburg.
Things went downhill from there. The team did not score a top ten finish until the season finale with O'Ward and after the team had divorced its young stud in Gabby Chaves.
Chaves did not do a bad job in his 13 starts. He did not match the output of Indianapolis and Texas from 2017 but he was running at the finish of 12 of his 13 starts with his lone retirement being at Iowa due to a handling issue. He did finish 14th in the Indianapolis 500 and complete all 200 laps.
Harding Racing was playing with some dated equipment. The dampers were eight years old for most of the season. It was a team fighting an uphill battle and doing it with little funding. Chaves got the most out of what he was given. O'Ward and Herta will have upgrades across the board.
Not only will the team have Andretti dampers and those dampers provided a big boost at Sonoma but the team has switched from Chevrolet engines to Honda engines. The Honda camp is quite deep with four Andretti cars, two Ganassi cars, two Rahal cars, two Schmidt Peterson cars and Bourdais at Coyne. That is 11 stout drivers to contend with in Honda's own camp but O'Ward's debut has everyone's hopes yet and while Herta didn't pull off what O'Ward did, he will still be 18 years old at St. Petersburg and he is bound to grow.
Chaves scored 187 points from 13 starts, good enough for 20th in the championship and on average 14.384 points per race. To beat that, O'Ward and Herta have to finish 15th or better in ever race. That doesn't sound like much but that is a huge task. I listed 11 Honda entries alone that we all think can win a race and then there are the three Penske entries and Ed Carpenter Racing should have an entry in the top 15. It is going to be tough to breakthrough but I think these two drivers will do it.
I am not saying O'Ward and Herta are both going to be in the top ten in the championship and will each have a race victory but I think each will have respectable days and if both drivers run all the races it should not be a surprise if both break 245 points. Matheus Leist scored 253 points in 2018 and he was far from spectacular. O'Ward and Herta should be able to at least match that but most likely surpass that with ease.
8. There will be at least two races with three rookies finishing in the top ten
It might sound crazy but the only rookies to get a top ten finish in 2018 were Zach Veach and O'Ward and O'Ward only ran the finale. This is despite there being 13 rookies. In 2017, Ed Jones was the only rookie to score a top ten finish. He was also the only rookie to run a full season.
The most recent race with three rookies in the top ten was at Watkins Glen in 2016 when Conor Daly finished fourth, Alexander Rossi finished eighth, RC Enerson finished ninth and Max Chilton came home in tenth. The next race with at least three rookies in the top ten was the first Houston race in 2014, which Carlos Huertas won (with an illegal fuel cell), Carlos Muñoz rounded out an all-Colombian podium (Montoya was second) and Jack Hawksworth finished sixth.
It is a mixture of we are due for this to happen, this rookie class is strong and it is quite a big class. There are five rookies scheduled to go full-time. It is not crazy to think there will be a race, let's say Barber, where Rosenqvist finishes sixth, Ericsson seventh and Herta tenth or at Road America Ericsson could finish fifth, Ferrucci could finish eighth and O'Ward finishes tenth.
Those are possible outcomes and lets not rule out at Indianapolis Alonso finishing sixth, Rosenqvist seventh and Herta ninth.
This is a really good rookie class and none of the five drivers are with terrible teams. We still have to see where Harding Steinbrenner Racing falls but if Sonoma is any indication it appears that team will be better than 2018. This is going to be a fun season.
9. There will not be a race decided under caution, barred rain-shortened races
Two races ended under caution in 2018: St. Petersburg after Rossi and Wickens got together and Iowa after Ed Carpenter brushed the wall exiting turn two, forced some debris on the track and there just was not enough time to restart the race.
Texas was the only race to end under caution in 2017; Phoenix was the only race to end under caution in 2016 and 2015 had NOLA, Fontana and Pocono end under caution with the first Belle Isle race being stopped early due to rain.
It has been a while since an IndyCar season did not have one race end under caution. In fact, you have to go back to the 2007 Champ Car season for the last time it happened.
However, IndyCar does not have a problem and it doesn't need to adopt green-white-checkered finish. There may be a race or two that finish under caution in a given season but it hasn't been a quarter or a third of the races.
This year I think every race will have a green flag finish and that is tough to predict. You never know if someone will bin it in the final corner of a street course and force a caution to be thrown with the leader on the other side of the circuit. Oval racing can be wild and that last lap move could end up taking out a few drivers. You never know but I think this will be the year of green.
10. Honda wins the most races for the second consecutive season
It really comes down to power in numbers and Honda is going to have it for a third consecutive year. It isn't just the quantity but the quality as well. It wasn't long ago Honda was lost with Hunter-Reay really being the manufactures' only consistent winner. Now it has Dixon, Rossi and Bourdais to give with Hunter-Reay and there are also Rahal, Hinchcliffe and Sato that have won a few races. All five full-time Honda teams have won a race the last two seasons. That is something Chevrolet can brag about.
Chevrolet has Team Penske and Team Penske has been pulling the boat for a while now. Team Penske has had some dominating seasons all on its own but that is not a reliable source. Eventually a team is going to hit a rough patch. One team cannot win nine races a season forever. The last non-Team Penske win for Chevrolet was Josef Newgarden with Ed Carpenter Racing at Iowa in 2016. Bourdais won earlier that season at Belle Isle with KVSH Racing.
There isn't that second team waiting in the wings to swoop in if Team Penske is off. ECR has that potential but we are not sure yet if the driver lineup is capable of being there like it once was. A.J. Foyt Racing is a mess. Carlin is still new.
If every Honda team wins at least one race again that is five and it is four victories away from sealing most victories. Dixon is likely going to win another, Rossi is likely to win another and Hunter-Reay has two victories that gives Honda nine victories and clinches most victories over Chevrolet. That also doesn't mention the possibility of Rosenqvist, Veach and possibly both Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing drivers getting a victory.
I do not think Honda will dominate and win 12 of 17 races. I think it will be close to even but Honda could clinch this with two or three races to go.
11. The first caution in the Indianapolis 500 does not come after a lead lap car runs into a lapped car
It has happened the last two years. First, it was Scott Dixon and Jay Howard in 2017. Then it was James Davison and Takuma Sato. They have been funky incidents and unfortunately these incidents are used to diminish drivers and smeared them as being hazardous and not fit enough to run the Indianapolis 500.
That isn't fair to those drivers and sometimes accidents happen. But three consecutive years seems to be a bit much. Personally, I don't want to see any cautions. I want a 500-mile sprint with no room to breathe but a caution will likely come at some point in the race. I just don't think we will see lapped traffic and faster lead lap cars colliding as the cause in 2019.
12. Every driver in the top twenty of the championship starts every race.
This may be one of those things you haven't realized has not happened in a while and that is because it has never happened.
Never in IndyCar history has all twenty drivers in the top twenty of the championship started every race.
It sounds crazy and it sounds like it has to be wrong but it is completely correct. There have been plenty of times when 20 drivers have started every race but there has always been one driver in the top twenty that has missed a race whether it is because of injury or that driver was part-time.
IndyCar has had some oddity in the championship. During the days of AAA running the series and the early days of USAC there would be the drivers who only ran Indianapolis, would win it and then finish fifth in the championship or run a few other races but not all of them. In the 1960s, many drivers skipped Pikes Peak. In the 1970s, there were fewer driving running full-time and even those who did run majority of the schedule might have missed a round or two.
More drivers running full-time started in the 1980s but there were still the occasional DNS or DNQ or missed race due to an injury. By the time the mid-1990s rolled around we had the split and for many years neither series had enough drivers to have 20 run full-time. Things have been better since reunification but there have still been drivers not starting a race due to mechanical issues or injury.
Here are a few times when it was close to happening:
1991: The top 15 drivers started every race. Mike Groff was 16th and missed four races, Willy T. Ribbs missed six races, John Jones missed seven races and Ted Prappas missed five races. Gordon Johncock was 20th in the championship and his only start was the Indianapolis 500, where he started sixth.
1994: Nineteen of the top 20 and 20 of the top 21 started every race. The lone exception was Mark Smith, who finished 19th in the championship. Smith withdrew from Phoenix and did not qualify for Indianapolis. Willy T. Ribbs was 22nd in the championship and only missed Indianapolis.
1995: Al Unser, Jr. and Emerson Fittipaldi both missed Indianapolis. Robby Gordon didn't start at Michigan. Eddie Cheever missed the final two races. Danny Sullivan missed the final four races due to injury.
1996 CART: Adrián Fernández did not start the U.S. 500. Paul Tracy didn't start the second Michigan race and missed Mid-Ohio. Mark Blundell broke his foot at Rio and missed the next three races. Emerson Fittipaldi suffered his career-ending injury at Michigan and missed the final four races. Eddie Lawson's only IndyCar season ended at Toronto, five races early.
1996 IRL: Buddy Lazier and Eddie Cheever both withdrew from Phoenix. Scott Brayton was fatally injured before Indianapolis. David Kudrave did not attempt Indianapolis. Michel Jourdain, Jr. and Jim Guthrie did not run the season opener at Orlando.
1998 CART: Christian Fittipaldi was the only driver in the top 20 not to start a race. He did not start at Milwaukee.
2000 IRL: Sarah Fisher did not start the season opener at Orlando. Tyce Carlson did not qualify for Indianapolis. Jaques Lazier missed Phoenix and Atlanta.
2001 CART: Tony Kanaan withdrew from Belle Isle due to a concussion. Memo Gidley did not run the first six races.
2004 Champ Car: The top 15 ran every race but Nelson Philippe missed three races, Gastón Mazzacane missed five races. Guy Smith missed seven races. Alex Sperafico missed the final six races. David Besnard was 20th in the championship and his only start was at Surfers Paradise, where he finished seventh.
2005 IRL: Buddy Rice missed Indianapolis. Tomáš Enge missed three races. Ryan Briscoe missed three races, including the final two after his Chicagoland accident. A.J. Foyt IV did not run the road courses.
2007 IRL: The top 17 ran every race but Jeff Simmons ran the first 11 races before he was replaced by Ryan Hunter-Reay, who ran the final six races and Milka Duno rounded out the top 20 after making only seven starts.
2008: Graham Rahal missed Homestead after he suffered an accident in a test days before the race. Bruno Junqueira missed Iowa after he wrecked his car in practice. E.J. Viso and the entire HVM Racing team missed Nashville due to the mumps.
2009: Hélio Castroneves missed the season opener due to his tax evasion case. Mario Moraes missed Mid-Ohio after the passing of his father. Will Power was 19th as a part-time entry and Tomas Scheckter was 20th as a part-time entry.
2010: The top 19 drivers started every race. Graham Rahal was 20th running a piecemeal season with Sarah Fisher Racing, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, Dreyer & Reinbold Racing and Newman-Haas Racing. Takuma Sato was 21st in the championship, ran every race but scored 21 fewer points than Rahal.
2011: James Hinchcliffe missed the season opener at St. Petersburg. Alex Tagliani missed Kentucky because Dan Wheldon got an extra race before Las Vegas. Mike Conway did not qualify for Indianapolis. Simona de Silvestro missed Iowa due to injury and Sonoma due to visa issues.
2012: Rubens Barrichello did not start Texas due to a mechanical issue on the grid. Alex Tagliani and Byran Herta Autosport did not make the flight to São Paulo. Charlie Kimball missed Mid-Ohio due to injury.
2013: Dario Franchitti missed Fontana after his Houston accident. E.J. Viso missed Fontana due to illness.
2014: Jack Hawksworth missed Pocono due to injury and Mikhail Aleshin missed Fontana due to injury.
2015: The top 17 drivers started every race. Ryan Briscoe was 18th but ran as a substitute for James Hinchcliffe. Sage Karam was a part-time entry.
2016: Nineteen of the top twenty started every race. Will Power was second in the championship but missed St. Petersburg after his inner-ear condition.
2017: J.R. Hildebrand missed Barber due to injury. Mikhail Aleshin was benched for Toronto and released with four races to go. Spencer Pigot was part-time.
2018: James Hinchcliffe did not qualify for Indianapolis. Robert Wickens missed the final three races due to injury. Ed Carpenter was 20th and ran only the ovals.
There have been some close calls but with the number of full-time drivers expected I think this is the year it happens.
And that unnecessarily, long-winded, detailed final prediction closes out the five-part prediction series for the 2019 season. If you have missed the NASCAR, Et Cetera, Formula One or sports car predictions, please check them out.
The New Year will be here soon. Musings From the Weekend return on New Year's Eve for one final goodbye to 2018 and a look ahead to 2019.
1. There will be multiple first time race winners in 2019
In combination with this year's rookie class, there are a handful of veteran drivers looking for their first victory.
Let's start with the rookies as this year's class has a European ladder vs. Road to Indy system feel to it. The most notable name is Felix Rosenqvist, who was a European Formula Three champion, won races in Formula E, won in Blancpain GT Series, was competitive in Super GT and Super Formula and yes, he did run a bit of Indy Lights in 2016 and won three races but for the most part he is a European developed driver and the Swede has landed at Chip Ganassi Racing.
Santino Ferrucci will become full-time in 2019 with Dale Coyne Racing. Ferrucci contested three IndyCar rounds last year while his Formula Two season ended prematurely after an unceremonious divorce with Trident. In 23 Formula Two starts, Ferrucci's best finish was sixth and in 24 GP3 Series starts, he had a third in the 2016 sprint race from Spa-Francorchamps and he finished fourth in sprint races at Silverstone and Hockenheim but he never finished better than ninth in a feature race in GP3 and Formula Two.
Pato O'Ward is coming off the Indy Lights championship and he was tremendous in his IndyCar debut in the 2018 finale from Sonoma. The Mexican driver started fifth and finished ninth. The good news for O'Ward is he has experience at 13 of the 16 tracks on the 2019 schedule. Eleven of those tracks came from Road to Indy experience, including Laguna Seca. The other two come from when he ran in Prototype Challenge in 2017. The only tracks he doesn't have experience at are Long Beach, Texas and Pocono. O'Ward has won at ten of the 13 tracks he has experience at.
Colton Herta was the vice-champion to his teammate O'Ward in Indy Lights in 2018 and he too made his IndyCar debut at Sonoma. While O'Ward out qualified and finished ahead of Herta, the American started 19th and finished 20th. Like O'Ward, Herta has experience at most of the tracks on the 2019 schedule with Herta having run at ten of 16 circuits. Of those ten tracks, he has won at five of them. O'Ward and Herta will remain teammates in IndyCar with both drivers running Honda-powered cars for Harding Steinbrenner Racing
Then there is Marcus Ericsson, who comes over from Formula One. Ericsson will be driving for Schmidt Peterson Motorsports to fill in for Robert Wickens. Ericsson is coming off his best championship finish in Formula One after he finished 17th on nine points. Other Circuit of the Americas, the other 15 tracks on the schedule will be new to Ericsson.
It will be interesting to see how this rookie class plays out because it could answer the question about whether the competition of European junior series trains a driver better than the Road to Indy and that perceived talent gap means track experience does not outweigh overall driving talent. At the same time, if the likes of O'Ward and Herta do run better than or at the same level as at least Ferrucci and Ericsson then it will bode well for the Road to Indy system and might convince people that running a year of Indy Lights would be better for a young driver in Formula Three or Formula Two then jumping right into IndyCar.
I think Rosenqvist will win at least one race. He should be in Formula One and his bit of Indy Lights experience will help him out. Ovals will still be somewhat new to him. He did run at Phoenix and Indianapolis but that is not much experience.
I am not sure any of the other rookies can win a race. Ferrucci was respectable in his four IndyCar starts but I am not sure he will be the best Dale Coyne Racing driver most of the time let alone good enough to win a race. Ericsson is with a team capable of winning but he may have a learning curve and it might take him a quarter of the season to get comfortable. Harding Steinbrenner Racing should be in better position with Honda engines and Andretti dampers but it will be a monumental task to take now the senior team of Andretti Autosport.
As for veterans, I think Zach Veach can win an oval race. Veach made big gains in the second half of the season and we know Andretti Autosport puts out great cars at Indianapolis, Pocono and the team has a history of short track success. If Veach wins in 2019, it will most likely be on an oval. I am not sure he is at the level of teammates Alexander Rossi and Ryan Hunter-Reay to win on a road course yet.
Ed Carpenter Racing will have two drivers looking for their first career victories. Ed Jones will be the road course driver in the #20 Chevrolet and he will run the Indianapolis 500 in a one-off while Spencer Pigot will be full-time for the second consecutive year in the #21 Chevrolet. Jones had a bit of a rough sophomore season at Chip Ganassi Racing. He did have a few good days but he never really seemed to win the team over. Ed Carpenter Racing can win on road/street courses and while he will not be full-time Jones will have time to focus on the road and street courses. It would not be surprising if he pulled one out. Pigot was a bit wishy-washy in 2018 but the results got better toward the end of the year. If Pigot improves on qualifying results then he will get himself into a better position for race victories. Although, I feel like Pigot is in the same boat as Veach and if he were to win in 2019, it would most likely be on an oval.
And if there is one more name we cannot rule out it is Fernando Alonso in the Indianapolis 500. This year's effort will be a bit different. It will not come with the support of Andretti Autosport and it will be with Chevrolet engines. There is no guarantee Alonso will replicate his pace of 2017 but if there is one thing we know about Alonso is he is determined. He is going for something greater than a World Drivers' Championship and the Indianapolis 500 is the final leg of the Triple Crown. It is there for the taking and I think Alonso will be toward the sharp end of the field on Memorial Day weekend.
2. There will be no more than three cars failing to qualify for the Indianapolis 500
It is December 28th and we have almost a field of 33 on paper and still another half dozen realistic entries. This will not be a year of scrambling to fill the field but it appears 2019 will be another year of bumping. The only question is how many cars will not be making the race.
Some are coming up with as many as 40 entries. Everyone seems to think 38 is possible but we have to remember it comes down to the engine manufactures. It sounds like one has already said the limit is 19 and I bet that manufacture is Honda. Honda has gone over and beyond the call of duty the last two years. If Chevrolet matches that then there will be 38 entries. However, Chevrolet has fewer teams and fewer teams means fewer one-off entries.
I think we are looking at most 36 entries, which would be one more than 2018. If it was an even split than each manufacture would have 18 entries but I bet this falls at 19 Honda entries and 17 Chevrolet entries.
Despite not reaching our greatest predictions, 36 entries is a great thing and as much as I want 40 entries and beyond I realize that there are production factors that keeps the entry list a bit lower than it probably could be and that is not a bad thing. These are good days for IndyCar and the Indianapolis 500. For the better part of two decades we have had worrisome experiences with Indianapolis 500 entries and bumping. The fact that it appears we will have bumping no matter what in December is a wonderful thing.
3. Passing will be down in over half the street course races but up in over half the oval races
The universal aero kit may have had an argument for rookie of the year in 2018 over Robert Wickens because the production of the new bodywork was better than I think most people anticipated.
The first race at St. Petersburg had 336 total passes and 283 passes for position. Long Beach had 200 total passes and 134 passes for position. Four of five street course races had over 100 passes with the lone exception being the first Belle Isle race, which had 96 total passes, 82 for position. The next Belle Isle race had 144 total passes and Toronto had 184 passes.
The ovals were a weaker area for the universal aero kit compared to its two predecessors.
Phoenix was better than the previous two years with 280 passes and 98 for position. Somehow 633 passes in the Indianapolis 500, 428 for position, was a dismal performance. Texas had 688 passes, 242 for position. Iowa nearly broke into the four-figures with 955 passes but it had fewer passes for position than Texas with 234. Pocono had fewer passes than four street course races at 135 passes and it had fewer passes for position than every street course race with only 53. Gateway ended the season with 396 passes, 137 for position.
The good news for the ovals is IndyCar has been tweaking the aero kit in hopes of improving overtaking especially at Indianapolis and Pocono. Those are the two races where I think we could see significant jumps in 2019. Gateway was better in 2018 but there is definitely room for improvement. I am not sure there can be any more passing at Iowa and Texas could be marginally better but I am not sure it could see much of a gain.
The street courses are a bit of a crapshoot. We saw passing numbers on street courses we had never seen before. Every race was dazzling in terms of street courses from years ago. I think we are bound to see a step back on the street courses. Are we really going to see 336 passes again at St. Petersburg or 283 passes at Long Beach? We kind of saw the decline start during the 2018 season. At the first two races shattered the 200 passes mark but none of the final three street courses broke 200 and only one got over 150 passes.
There is still the possibility that passing could be down on street courses and the races are still fantastic. Would anyone complain if St. Petersburg only had 210 passes? What if Toronto had 180 passes? The numbers might be down but that doesn't necessarily mean we have to be alarmed.
It was a dangerous thing when IndyCar started publishing passing statistics because we really don't know what they mean. A large number doesn't mean it is a great race and a small number doesn't mean a bad race. We should not be slave to the numbers and let them dictate whether a race is good or not. I hope our critical commentary does not need numbers to steer how we feel about a race.
4. Simon Pagenaud wins multiple races and more than double his podium finishes from 2018
Pagenaud did not win in 2018 despite ending the season with ten consecutive top ten finishes and 14 top ten finishes in 17 starts.
While he had that stats line and finished sixth in the championship, there wasn't a race Pagenaud should have won in 2018. The two races he finished runner-up in he probably deserved no better than second. Scott Dixon was the best driver at Texas and Dixon was better than Pagenaud at Toronto. The Frenchman may have been gifted an extra position had teammate Josef Newgarden not slapped the wall while coming to the green flag for the restart while in the lead.
Plenty of parallels were drawn between this season and Pagenaud's first season at Penske in 2015, which coincided with the introduction of the manufacture-specific aero kits but Pagenaud was borderline championship-caliber in 2018 while his 2015 definitely showed a few growing pains.
He only led 31 laps in 2018, 26 of which came at Texas but he had the fourth best average finish and completed the fifth most laps. His only retirement was completely out of his control when Graham Rahal ran into the back of Pagenaud in turn one on lap one at Long Beach and Pagenaud had started third. That ended 22 consecutive races of running at the finish. Prior to that streak, Pagenaud had a 23 consecutive finish streak.
Pagenaud is going to finish races and he is bound to have his weekends again where he starts on the front row and leads two-thirds of a race on his way to victory. Not to forget mentioning that Pagenaud is better on ovals than he was prior to his Team Penske days and he is just as likely to win at Indianapolis, Texas and Pocono as he is to win at Road America, Toronto and Mid-Ohio.
5. Will Power will start at least one race outside the top ten
Power has started 27 consecutive races in the top ten. The last time he did not start in the top ten was in the first Belle Isle race in 2017 when he started 11th. Power has started outside the top ten in three of 65 starts since 2015 and that does not include his pole position for the 2016 season opener at St. Petersburg, which Power was forced to withdraw from on the morning of the race due to an inner-ear condition.
Power was a qualifying master in 2018. He started 15 of 17 races in the top five and his worst starting position was seventh at Sonoma, the only time he didn't make the Fast Six.
He isn't going to slip up on a road/street course. He is too good. You can pretty much pencil him into the top six at every road/street course and if you are penciling him into the top six, you mind as well put him in the top three. Penske also has a way of producing some good cars in oval qualifying trim and Power does have the benefit of Penske having deeper pockets than some other teams. Penske is able to focus on qualifying set up more than some other teams and on top of that Power can overcome wrecking a car in qualifying because Penske has spares while other teams might not and have to be conservative in qualifying to focus on the race.
While Power has a lot going for him, IndyCar can be a bit unpredictable. There have been plenty of occasions where a fast driver is caught out during a qualifying group with an untimely yellow and someone you thought would make the Fast Six all of a sudden hasn't made it out of group one. It happened to Power in 2015 at Long Beach. There could be an oval qualifying session where Power just gets the wrong conditions and has a head wind that he can't overcome or he has a twitch and is forced to get out of the throttle and that drops him down the starting order.
Power is going to win plenty of pole positions in 2019 but he will have one uncharacteristic starting position.
6. Sébastien Bourdais has at least three podium finishes
Bourdais has not had three podium finishes in a season since 2013 when he had three consecutive podium finishes between the Toronto doubleheader and Mid-Ohio.
It was impractical to expect Bourdais to match his Champ Car numbers when he returned to IndyCar. He has been solid driver during the DW12-era but he has yet to have a season that is shadow of his previous success. He has won a race in five consecutive seasons, something only Dixon and Power can claim but Bourdais has not strung together consistent finishes at the front. He has two podium finishes in four of the last five seasons.
Bourdais has had some close calls with three podium finishes. In 2014, he finished fourth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and the first Houston race, which was a bit of a gift after Graham Rahal got into Tony Kanaan under caution. His two victories were his only podium finishes in 2015. Last year, Bourdais led 60 laps from pole position at Phoenix but he could not overcome an early penalty for clipping a crew member and finished 13th. He had to start last at Mid-Ohio and put on a performance working his way to sixth in a caution-free race. He finished fourth at Pocono and he was less than a second behind Dixon for third.
There are plenty of places where Bourdais can get results and Dale Coyne Racing might be the smallest team on the grid but they get the most out of what they got. I am not sure he can win three consecutive races at St. Petersburg but what is stopping him? He probably should have been on the podium at Long Beach as well in 2018 had it not been for an untimely yellow and not getting to pit lane in time. Coyne has also established a dangerously quick superspeedway program.
It feels like this fairy tale is bound to come to an end. Nothing lasts forever but Bourdais finished seventh in the championship last year and I think he and Dale Coyne Racing aren't done yet.
7. Both Harding Steinbrenner Racing drivers score more points per start than Gabby Chaves
A lot has changed in a short period of time for Harding Racing. The team finished ninth on debut in the 2017 Indianapolis 500 and then finished second in the team's second race a few weeks later at Texas. After three oval races the team expanded to a full-time operation in 2018 and it started eighth at St. Petersburg.
Things went downhill from there. The team did not score a top ten finish until the season finale with O'Ward and after the team had divorced its young stud in Gabby Chaves.
Chaves did not do a bad job in his 13 starts. He did not match the output of Indianapolis and Texas from 2017 but he was running at the finish of 12 of his 13 starts with his lone retirement being at Iowa due to a handling issue. He did finish 14th in the Indianapolis 500 and complete all 200 laps.
Harding Racing was playing with some dated equipment. The dampers were eight years old for most of the season. It was a team fighting an uphill battle and doing it with little funding. Chaves got the most out of what he was given. O'Ward and Herta will have upgrades across the board.
Not only will the team have Andretti dampers and those dampers provided a big boost at Sonoma but the team has switched from Chevrolet engines to Honda engines. The Honda camp is quite deep with four Andretti cars, two Ganassi cars, two Rahal cars, two Schmidt Peterson cars and Bourdais at Coyne. That is 11 stout drivers to contend with in Honda's own camp but O'Ward's debut has everyone's hopes yet and while Herta didn't pull off what O'Ward did, he will still be 18 years old at St. Petersburg and he is bound to grow.
Chaves scored 187 points from 13 starts, good enough for 20th in the championship and on average 14.384 points per race. To beat that, O'Ward and Herta have to finish 15th or better in ever race. That doesn't sound like much but that is a huge task. I listed 11 Honda entries alone that we all think can win a race and then there are the three Penske entries and Ed Carpenter Racing should have an entry in the top 15. It is going to be tough to breakthrough but I think these two drivers will do it.
I am not saying O'Ward and Herta are both going to be in the top ten in the championship and will each have a race victory but I think each will have respectable days and if both drivers run all the races it should not be a surprise if both break 245 points. Matheus Leist scored 253 points in 2018 and he was far from spectacular. O'Ward and Herta should be able to at least match that but most likely surpass that with ease.
8. There will be at least two races with three rookies finishing in the top ten
It might sound crazy but the only rookies to get a top ten finish in 2018 were Zach Veach and O'Ward and O'Ward only ran the finale. This is despite there being 13 rookies. In 2017, Ed Jones was the only rookie to score a top ten finish. He was also the only rookie to run a full season.
The most recent race with three rookies in the top ten was at Watkins Glen in 2016 when Conor Daly finished fourth, Alexander Rossi finished eighth, RC Enerson finished ninth and Max Chilton came home in tenth. The next race with at least three rookies in the top ten was the first Houston race in 2014, which Carlos Huertas won (with an illegal fuel cell), Carlos Muñoz rounded out an all-Colombian podium (Montoya was second) and Jack Hawksworth finished sixth.
It is a mixture of we are due for this to happen, this rookie class is strong and it is quite a big class. There are five rookies scheduled to go full-time. It is not crazy to think there will be a race, let's say Barber, where Rosenqvist finishes sixth, Ericsson seventh and Herta tenth or at Road America Ericsson could finish fifth, Ferrucci could finish eighth and O'Ward finishes tenth.
Those are possible outcomes and lets not rule out at Indianapolis Alonso finishing sixth, Rosenqvist seventh and Herta ninth.
This is a really good rookie class and none of the five drivers are with terrible teams. We still have to see where Harding Steinbrenner Racing falls but if Sonoma is any indication it appears that team will be better than 2018. This is going to be a fun season.
9. There will not be a race decided under caution, barred rain-shortened races
Two races ended under caution in 2018: St. Petersburg after Rossi and Wickens got together and Iowa after Ed Carpenter brushed the wall exiting turn two, forced some debris on the track and there just was not enough time to restart the race.
Texas was the only race to end under caution in 2017; Phoenix was the only race to end under caution in 2016 and 2015 had NOLA, Fontana and Pocono end under caution with the first Belle Isle race being stopped early due to rain.
It has been a while since an IndyCar season did not have one race end under caution. In fact, you have to go back to the 2007 Champ Car season for the last time it happened.
However, IndyCar does not have a problem and it doesn't need to adopt green-white-checkered finish. There may be a race or two that finish under caution in a given season but it hasn't been a quarter or a third of the races.
This year I think every race will have a green flag finish and that is tough to predict. You never know if someone will bin it in the final corner of a street course and force a caution to be thrown with the leader on the other side of the circuit. Oval racing can be wild and that last lap move could end up taking out a few drivers. You never know but I think this will be the year of green.
10. Honda wins the most races for the second consecutive season
It really comes down to power in numbers and Honda is going to have it for a third consecutive year. It isn't just the quantity but the quality as well. It wasn't long ago Honda was lost with Hunter-Reay really being the manufactures' only consistent winner. Now it has Dixon, Rossi and Bourdais to give with Hunter-Reay and there are also Rahal, Hinchcliffe and Sato that have won a few races. All five full-time Honda teams have won a race the last two seasons. That is something Chevrolet can brag about.
Chevrolet has Team Penske and Team Penske has been pulling the boat for a while now. Team Penske has had some dominating seasons all on its own but that is not a reliable source. Eventually a team is going to hit a rough patch. One team cannot win nine races a season forever. The last non-Team Penske win for Chevrolet was Josef Newgarden with Ed Carpenter Racing at Iowa in 2016. Bourdais won earlier that season at Belle Isle with KVSH Racing.
There isn't that second team waiting in the wings to swoop in if Team Penske is off. ECR has that potential but we are not sure yet if the driver lineup is capable of being there like it once was. A.J. Foyt Racing is a mess. Carlin is still new.
If every Honda team wins at least one race again that is five and it is four victories away from sealing most victories. Dixon is likely going to win another, Rossi is likely to win another and Hunter-Reay has two victories that gives Honda nine victories and clinches most victories over Chevrolet. That also doesn't mention the possibility of Rosenqvist, Veach and possibly both Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing drivers getting a victory.
I do not think Honda will dominate and win 12 of 17 races. I think it will be close to even but Honda could clinch this with two or three races to go.
11. The first caution in the Indianapolis 500 does not come after a lead lap car runs into a lapped car
It has happened the last two years. First, it was Scott Dixon and Jay Howard in 2017. Then it was James Davison and Takuma Sato. They have been funky incidents and unfortunately these incidents are used to diminish drivers and smeared them as being hazardous and not fit enough to run the Indianapolis 500.
That isn't fair to those drivers and sometimes accidents happen. But three consecutive years seems to be a bit much. Personally, I don't want to see any cautions. I want a 500-mile sprint with no room to breathe but a caution will likely come at some point in the race. I just don't think we will see lapped traffic and faster lead lap cars colliding as the cause in 2019.
12. Every driver in the top twenty of the championship starts every race.
This may be one of those things you haven't realized has not happened in a while and that is because it has never happened.
Never in IndyCar history has all twenty drivers in the top twenty of the championship started every race.
It sounds crazy and it sounds like it has to be wrong but it is completely correct. There have been plenty of times when 20 drivers have started every race but there has always been one driver in the top twenty that has missed a race whether it is because of injury or that driver was part-time.
IndyCar has had some oddity in the championship. During the days of AAA running the series and the early days of USAC there would be the drivers who only ran Indianapolis, would win it and then finish fifth in the championship or run a few other races but not all of them. In the 1960s, many drivers skipped Pikes Peak. In the 1970s, there were fewer driving running full-time and even those who did run majority of the schedule might have missed a round or two.
More drivers running full-time started in the 1980s but there were still the occasional DNS or DNQ or missed race due to an injury. By the time the mid-1990s rolled around we had the split and for many years neither series had enough drivers to have 20 run full-time. Things have been better since reunification but there have still been drivers not starting a race due to mechanical issues or injury.
Here are a few times when it was close to happening:
1991: The top 15 drivers started every race. Mike Groff was 16th and missed four races, Willy T. Ribbs missed six races, John Jones missed seven races and Ted Prappas missed five races. Gordon Johncock was 20th in the championship and his only start was the Indianapolis 500, where he started sixth.
1994: Nineteen of the top 20 and 20 of the top 21 started every race. The lone exception was Mark Smith, who finished 19th in the championship. Smith withdrew from Phoenix and did not qualify for Indianapolis. Willy T. Ribbs was 22nd in the championship and only missed Indianapolis.
1995: Al Unser, Jr. and Emerson Fittipaldi both missed Indianapolis. Robby Gordon didn't start at Michigan. Eddie Cheever missed the final two races. Danny Sullivan missed the final four races due to injury.
1996 CART: Adrián Fernández did not start the U.S. 500. Paul Tracy didn't start the second Michigan race and missed Mid-Ohio. Mark Blundell broke his foot at Rio and missed the next three races. Emerson Fittipaldi suffered his career-ending injury at Michigan and missed the final four races. Eddie Lawson's only IndyCar season ended at Toronto, five races early.
1996 IRL: Buddy Lazier and Eddie Cheever both withdrew from Phoenix. Scott Brayton was fatally injured before Indianapolis. David Kudrave did not attempt Indianapolis. Michel Jourdain, Jr. and Jim Guthrie did not run the season opener at Orlando.
1998 CART: Christian Fittipaldi was the only driver in the top 20 not to start a race. He did not start at Milwaukee.
2000 IRL: Sarah Fisher did not start the season opener at Orlando. Tyce Carlson did not qualify for Indianapolis. Jaques Lazier missed Phoenix and Atlanta.
2001 CART: Tony Kanaan withdrew from Belle Isle due to a concussion. Memo Gidley did not run the first six races.
2004 Champ Car: The top 15 ran every race but Nelson Philippe missed three races, Gastón Mazzacane missed five races. Guy Smith missed seven races. Alex Sperafico missed the final six races. David Besnard was 20th in the championship and his only start was at Surfers Paradise, where he finished seventh.
2005 IRL: Buddy Rice missed Indianapolis. Tomáš Enge missed three races. Ryan Briscoe missed three races, including the final two after his Chicagoland accident. A.J. Foyt IV did not run the road courses.
2007 IRL: The top 17 ran every race but Jeff Simmons ran the first 11 races before he was replaced by Ryan Hunter-Reay, who ran the final six races and Milka Duno rounded out the top 20 after making only seven starts.
2008: Graham Rahal missed Homestead after he suffered an accident in a test days before the race. Bruno Junqueira missed Iowa after he wrecked his car in practice. E.J. Viso and the entire HVM Racing team missed Nashville due to the mumps.
2009: Hélio Castroneves missed the season opener due to his tax evasion case. Mario Moraes missed Mid-Ohio after the passing of his father. Will Power was 19th as a part-time entry and Tomas Scheckter was 20th as a part-time entry.
2010: The top 19 drivers started every race. Graham Rahal was 20th running a piecemeal season with Sarah Fisher Racing, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, Dreyer & Reinbold Racing and Newman-Haas Racing. Takuma Sato was 21st in the championship, ran every race but scored 21 fewer points than Rahal.
2011: James Hinchcliffe missed the season opener at St. Petersburg. Alex Tagliani missed Kentucky because Dan Wheldon got an extra race before Las Vegas. Mike Conway did not qualify for Indianapolis. Simona de Silvestro missed Iowa due to injury and Sonoma due to visa issues.
2012: Rubens Barrichello did not start Texas due to a mechanical issue on the grid. Alex Tagliani and Byran Herta Autosport did not make the flight to São Paulo. Charlie Kimball missed Mid-Ohio due to injury.
2013: Dario Franchitti missed Fontana after his Houston accident. E.J. Viso missed Fontana due to illness.
2014: Jack Hawksworth missed Pocono due to injury and Mikhail Aleshin missed Fontana due to injury.
2015: The top 17 drivers started every race. Ryan Briscoe was 18th but ran as a substitute for James Hinchcliffe. Sage Karam was a part-time entry.
2016: Nineteen of the top twenty started every race. Will Power was second in the championship but missed St. Petersburg after his inner-ear condition.
2017: J.R. Hildebrand missed Barber due to injury. Mikhail Aleshin was benched for Toronto and released with four races to go. Spencer Pigot was part-time.
2018: James Hinchcliffe did not qualify for Indianapolis. Robert Wickens missed the final three races due to injury. Ed Carpenter was 20th and ran only the ovals.
There have been some close calls but with the number of full-time drivers expected I think this is the year it happens.
And that unnecessarily, long-winded, detailed final prediction closes out the five-part prediction series for the 2019 season. If you have missed the NASCAR, Et Cetera, Formula One or sports car predictions, please check them out.
The New Year will be here soon. Musings From the Weekend return on New Year's Eve for one final goodbye to 2018 and a look ahead to 2019.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)