I hope you enjoyed your Christmas and now it is time for our Boxing Day tradition of Formula One predictions. We are coming off another world championship for Lewis Hamilton, a better but still disappointing season for Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari, a race victory for Kimi Räikkönen and a decent year from Red Bull but still far from its championship days earlier this decade. What will 2019 bring with drivers switching teams, Red Bull changing engine manufactures and the exit of Fernando Alonso?
1. Lewis Hamilton will move up to second all-time in fastest laps
This man is already second all-time in victories, tied for second all-time in championships and the all-time leader in pole position. Hamilton is going to end his career with many of the records even if he doesn't get to Michael Schumacher's record in victories and championships.
He currently sits on 41 fastest laps, tied with Alain Prost for third all-time. He is five behind Kimi Räikkönen and he is five ahead of the next active driver, Sebastian Vettel, who is fifth all-time. Last season, Hamilton had three fastest laps, which might sound low but it is the same number of fastest laps in 2016. In his other three seasons during this era of regulations he has had seven, eight and seven fastest laps.
He just needs to be slightly better than 2018 to surpass Räikkönen. It is possible and I think Hamilton and Mercedes will continue to rule Formula One. I think Mercedes will not be slow to get going as they were in 2018.
2. Mercedes surpasses Brawn for best winning percentage in Formula One history
In Brawn's one Formula One season, it won eight of 17 races, 47.1% of the races on its way to its only World Constructors' Championship.
Brawn's successor Mercedes has won 87 of 189 races, sitting at 46.0%. No other team has won more than a third of the races. Vanwall won nine of 28 races, 32.1% while Ferrari sits on 24.2% with 235 victories from 970 races. Red Bull has won 59 of 265 races, 22.3% with McLaren and Williams rounding out the top seven at 21.6% and 16.3%. Williams will likely fall behind Lotus, which is only a tenth of a percentage behind Williams. Williams would have to win three races to retain seventh.
Meanwhile, Mercedes needs to win 12 of 21 races to surpass Brawn. Last year, Mercedes won 11 races, all at the hands of Hamilton. Hamilton has averaged 10.2 victories a season since the start of this turbo V6 hybrid-era. Bottas did not win a race in 2018 but he very well could have won twice and there were probably two more races Hamilton could have won.
Once again, I don't see Mercedes' stranglehold loosening much in 2019. Even if Hamilton goes under his average for this era and has only ten victories, I think the team will be in position to surpass Brawn. In other news, Mercedes needs 13 victories to reach the century mark, joining only Ferrari, McLaren and Williams to reach that mark. Mercedes has something to aim for.
3. Charles Leclerc does not out qualifying Sebastian Vettel on speed in the first six races
For the second time in Vettel's career, he has a talented younger driver joining him at an established team. At Red Bull, Daniel Ricciardo came in, beat Vettel immediately and forced the German to Ferrari. Leclerc has been slightly more successful than Ricciardo in terms of where he was after year one in Formula One.
Leclerc has won titles in GP3 and Formula Two. Last season, he scored 39 points with Sauber. Leclerc has been heralded as the leader of this next generation of talent and he was good enough to convince Ferrari to take the 21-year-old over the steady hand of Kimi Räikkönen.
However, I think Vettel will not let Leclerc beat him the way Ricciardo did at Red Bull. Leclerc will be competitive and for the first time in at least a decade Ferrari doesn't have a designated number two driver. Leclerc will be going for race victories. Unless Vettel is in the title fight I do not see Ferrari telling Leclerc to move aside to let the German through but I think there will be a learning curve for the Monegasque driver.
I think Vettel will have a bit of an upper hand and it may take until the European portion of the schedule until he reaches the level of Vettel. Unless Vettel has to serve a grid penalty, I think he starts ahead of his teammate for almost the first third of the season.
4. Antonio Giovinazzi scores at least 66% of Kimi Räikkönen's points total
Speaking of Sauber and Räikkönen, it is not only a reunion for those two but also Giovinazzi returns to Formula One after two races in 2017 filling in for the injured Pascal Wehrlein.
Sauber had its best season of the turbo V6 hybrid-era with 48 points with Leclerc and the IndyCar-bound Marcus Ericsson. The influx of Alfa Romeo money helped the team and that remains for 2019. It is tough to judge where the team will fall in 2019. Räikkönen won at Austin and had a respectable 2018 season. Will that same kind of momentum and fire last into the next season? Sauber is a step down from Ferrari and we saw Räikkönen lose motivation at Ferrari before. Why would that not happen at Sauber?
As for Giovinazzi, he had a respectable debut at Australia and then could not stay out of the barrier at China in the next round. The man lost the GP2 title in 2016 to Pierre Gasly by eight points. He has been respectable in sports cars. It seems like Räikkönen will still be the number one driver and Sauber could move up the ladder. I think Giovinazzi will cover himself well in 2019 and Räikkönen will not be carrying the load. I am not sure how many points this team will score but I think it will be close to even than some expect.
5. Robert Kubica does not start all 21 races
The Polish driver will complete the remarkable comeback in 2019 with Kubica set for his first Formula One start since the 2010 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
He has come a long way but there is something that tells me this will not go as swimmingly as we all hope.
I think it is a big leap for him and there may be a track or two where he doesn't have it. I don't know if that means his season will be cut short or if a third driver will have to step in but I am not sure if it will goes as planned for Kubica. Even if it something mechanical that keeps him from taking the lights I am not sure he will go 21-for-21 in terms of starts.
6. At least five constructors get a podium finish
Red Bull switches to Honda in 2019 and I think that will bring Red Bull closer to the rest of the field, allowing for more teams to compete for podium finishes.
Only four teams made it to the podium in 2018 and one of those was Force India's lone third place finish in Azerbaijan after Valtteri Bottas lost a tire at the start of the final lap. The 2017 season was not much different from 2018 with Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull accounting for all but one podium finish, which was third at Azerbaijan for Williams with Lance Stroll.
The last season with five teams finishing on the podium was 2016 with Force India finishing third at Monaco and Azerbaijan (what is up with the final podium position at Azerbaijan) and Williams finished third in Canada.
I think with Red Bull taking on Honda the team will have good days but as we have seen with Honda since it returned to Honda it has good days and its bad days are atrocious. Daniel Ricciardo got out and went to Renault and while Renault has not finished on the podium since it returned as a constructor in 2016 (Renault's last podium was third in the 2011 Malaysian Grand Prix with Nick Heidfeld), I don't think Ricciardo makes that move unless he knows Renault has enough to be competitive.
It isn't quite Hamilton leaving McLaren for Mercedes but I think Ricciardo made the move because he knew what he had with the Renault engine and the Honda was too much of a roll of the dice for his career at a team ready to embrace Max Verstappen as its number one.
Haas had its best year in 2018 and if Red Bull falls back to the pack the Ferrari engine might push Haas to a podium finish or two. Newly named Racing Point will still have Mercedes engines, will have more money behind the team and has perennial over-performer Sergio Pérez as one of its drivers. And it might not be crazy to think that McLaren-Renault might be in position to get back on the podium for the first time since it took second and third in the 2014 Australian Grand Prix, the first race with the turbo V6 hybrid engines.
This might be the season where Mercedes and Ferrari pull away from the field and on paper it may look competitive with more teams getting on the podium.
7. A driver will end a drought of 50 races or more without a podium finish
If you are wondering who this pertains to the answers are Romain Grosjean, who has made 69 starts since his last podium finish; Kevin Magnussen, who has not had a podium finish in his last 80 starts since he finished second on debut at Australia in 2014; Carlos Sainz, Jr., who has not had a podium finish in 81 starts and Nico Hülkenberg, who has not had a podium finish in 156 starts.
This prediction seems a bit more far fetched now that it has been written out but like I said before if there are going to be five manufactures that end up on the podium and if Haas gets a podium finish than either Grosjean or Magnussen will end their drought.
Sainz, Jr. has yet to finish on the podium, which is kind of surprising considering he has been really good in Formula One and then there is Hülkenberg, who has started more races than anyone in Formula One history without a podium finish.
I think somebody breaks through and gets their long awaited day in the spotlight.
8. None of the rookies break 39 points
There are arguably four rookies entered for the 2019 season. Formula Two champion George Russell joins Williams with his vice-champion Lando Norris moving up to McLaren. Alexander Albon will become the first Thai driver to start a Formula One race since Prince Bira finished ninth in the 1954 Spanish Grand Prix and he finished third in the Formula Two championship. Though Giovinazzi made two starts, he should be classified as a rookie.
Thirty-nine points is the total Charles Leclerc scored in 2018.
The most likely of the four to reach 39 points seems to be Giovinazzi because he is driving for the team Leclerc drove for. Norris replaces Fernando Alonso and Stoffel Vandoorne at McLaren and while Alonso scored 50 points, I don't think Norris will replicate that success and Vandoorne only scored 12 points. The average of McLaren's 2018 drivers is 31 points. That seems about the right total for Norris.
Toro Rosso scored 33 points last year and historically Toro Rosso has not been a team that scored a lot of points. Only three times has a Toro Rosso driver scored 39 points or more, one was Max Verstappen in 2015 and the other two occasions were at the hands of Sainz, Jr. in 2016 and 2017. Hold you horses on Albon.
Williams couldn't even get to ten points in 2018. Why should any of us think Russell alone will score 39 points?
I think it will come down to Norris and Giovinazzi for top rookie and both will score over two-dozen points and it would not surprise me if both break 30 points but neither get over 39 points. Albon may score somewhere between 10-20 points and Russell will get on the board but I am not sure he will be able to top Albon.
9. Daniil Kvyat does not improve his best finish with Toro Rosso
The Russian driver's best finish at Toro Rosso is ninth. He has made 51 starts at Toro Rosso. He finished better than ninth in ten of 21 starts at Red Bull.
I do not know what to think of Kvyat's Formula One career but I do not see this second stint being some major improvement. For starters, I am not sure Toro Rosso will have the better of the Honda engines now that the parent team Red Bull has switched over. Toro Rosso had three finishes better than eighth last year.
There is a chance Kvyat gets an eighth place finish or a seventh place finish but if it does happen it is a one-off and not a regular occurrence.
10. There will be at least two grand slams
There were zero grand slams in 2018.
Only four times did the race winner score fastest lap in 2018. Daniel Ricciardo did it at China, Sebastian Vettel did it at Silverstone and Hamilton did it at Germany and Italy. Hamilton led every lap from pole position at Japan but Vettel scored fastest lap.
Hamilton had three grand slams in 2017, matching the single season record and he is tied for second all-time with Alberto Ascari and Michael Schumacher and he is three behind Jim Clark's record. In 2016, Nico Rosberg had two grand slams.
Mercedes is the only team during the turbo V6 hybrid-era to score a grand slam. The last non-Mercedes grand slam was Vettel with Red Bull in the 2013 Korean Grand Prix.
I think Hamilton will get at least one, if not two and I think there is a chance Vettel gets one with Ferrari.
11. At least three countries have multiple driver finish in the top ten of the championship
Eight different countries were represented in the top ten of the championship last year. Finland had two representatives in Räikkönen and Bottas and Germany had two with Vettel and Hülkenberg.
This one might be a stretch because there are not many countries with multiple drivers on the grid and in fact there are only four countries. After being the only Brit on the grid in 2018, Hamilton has Russell and Norris joining him, making the United Kingdom the most represented country on the grid. Bottas and Räikkönen remain, as does Vettel and Hülkenberg. The only other country with multiple drivers is France with Romain Grosjean and Pierre Gasly, down from three last year now that Esteban Ocon has lost this round of musical chairs and will have to settle for Mercedes reserve driver.
The only country I feel good about is Germany. I think Vettel will be in the top three and Renault will be solid enough to keep Hülkenberg in the top ten. Hamilton will be in the top three but you cannot count on Norris or Russell because of their lack of experience and their teams. Bottas will be in the top four but it is not clear what Räikkönen we will get and if Sauber will gain on 2018 and provide a top ten race car. Then there are the French drivers. Grosjean and Gasly were 14th and 15th respectively in the championship in 2018.
Haas is a good team and Kevin Magnussen finished ninth in the championship. Grosjean could match his level. Gasly moves to Red Bull and both drivers finished in the top six. That alone should warrant at least a five-position bump in the championship but the concern for Gasly is the Honda engine. I think Gasly gets in the top ten but there is no guarantee he will be in the top six.
I don't think the United Kingdom will be one of three but I think Germany will do it, I think Finland will do it with Räikkönen getting into the top ten and I think Grosjean and Gasly each get into the top ten but there is a chance Räikkönen, Grosjean and Gasly are the final three drivers in the top ten.
12. The championship is not clinched in Mexico
Lewis Hamilton has clinched the world championship in Mexico the last two seasons. The only countries to have three consecutive world championships clinched there are Japan and Brazil. The title was decided in Japan five consecutive years from 1987-1991 and in three consecutive seasons from 1998-2000 while Brazil decided the title from 2005-2009.
The odds are not in Mexico's favor but then again I thought Mexico would not win the race promoters' trophy three consecutive years and here we are with Mexico having won the honor for the fourth consecutive year so what do I know?
The one thing in this predictions' favor is Mexico is not the antepenultimate round in 2019 as it and the United States has flipped positions in the schedule. That means Hamilton will need to be better than he was in the last two seasons to clinch the title in Mexico or everyone behind him have to be slightly worse.
I think it is more likely that the championship is closer and goes down to the wire than Hamilton clinches the title in Russia or Japan.
It is hard to see Hamilton not winning the championship this year and Vettel is his most serious contender. Mercedes will not suddenly swing into Bottas' favor even if Bottas replicates Nico Rosberg's start to the 2016 season and Hamilton starts off sluggish. It is too soon to think Leclerc will compete for a title in year one with Ferrari.
For Vettel to take the title to at least Brazil or Abu Dhabi he not only needs to cut out the mistakes that cost him in the second half of 2018 but he has to be all around better. Vettel's final victory in 2018 was Belgium. There were eight races after that. He was only on the podium for four of them. He had only two front starts in the final eight races after having eight front starts including five pole positions in the first 13 races.
Vettel and Ferrari cannot have any fall off. For five seasons when Mercedes has a bad race it immediately response and doesn't repeat that performance. Hamilton will not put a foot wrong and it will come down to if Ferrari can put pressure on the German outfit and the British champion.
We have surpassed the halfway point of the predictions and if you have missed the NASCAR and Et Cetera predictions, please check them out. We got two more to go and both will be posted in the next two days.
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