2019 NASCAR Predictions

We have made it to the final days of December and once again we close out the year with predictions for the approaching New Year. We start with NASCAR and 2019 sees Joey Logano enter as the defending champion, a handful of drivers going to new places, some veterans leaving the series, the schedule is mostly unchanged and a new rules package that is a big shift for the series.

1. We will have at least eight different race winners in the first 16 races
Last year was a bit of an anomaly for NASCAR. Martin Truex, Jr., Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick dominated the first two-thirds of the season and the dominance of those three was something the Cup series had not seen in 40 years. Last year, there were only six different winners through the first 16 races.

With the new rules package, I do not see three drivers winning that many races combined. I think it will be a bit tougher to dominate races but in some instances I think races where Truex, Busch or Harvick came from behind to win will not happen.

History suggests we will see more winners in 2019 and that 2018 was an outlier. In 2017, there were 11 race winners in the first 16 races. The year before that, there were ten different winners and in 2014 and 2015 there had been ten different winners in the first 16 races. The 2013 season had 11 different winners in the first 16 races. The 2011 and 2012 seasons had 12 different winners.

The 2010 season was the last time there were fewer than eight winners in the first 16 races and that was when there were seven winners and that is the only season of the ten prior to 2018 not to have fewer than eight winners in the first 16 races. The 2009 season had ten winners and 2008 had nine winners in the first 16 races.

I think things return to usual in 2019. I think we will see a typical NASCAR season where seven or eight drivers split the first ten or 11 races and we will not see one driver let alone multiple drivers win three consecutive races like we did with Harvick and Busch in 2018.

2. Aric Almirola and Austin Dillon each finish at least five championship positions worse than they did in 2018
Almirola had a career year and finished fifth in the championship while Dillon finished 13th.

The current system heavily favored Almirola, who finished ahead of Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski and Kurt Busch, and heavily weighted the results of the final ten races over the entire 36-race season. On points scored, Almirola was only 12th best, behind the likes of those three drivers as well as Kyle Larson, Clint Bowyer, Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin. Dillon was 17th best on points scored behind 2018 teammate Ryan Newman, who was eliminated from championship contention after 16 races.

Obviously, for Dillon to finish five positions worse he would have to not make the Chase and I think that will be the case. I think he had a few breaks for his two victories that got him a spot into the final ten races and from there you are guaranteed a top 16 championship finish. I am not sure Dillon or Richard Childress Racing is that good.

Dillon was 19th on points after Indianapolis this year, behind the likes of Paul Menard and Ricky Stenhourse, Jr. I am not sure that fortunate break will get him a race victory for the third consecutive year.

As for Almirola, he could win a race or two in 2019 but he could still end up finishing tenth in the championship, especially if he does not make the semifinal round. I think Elliott will be better and the same is true for Larson. I think it will be difficult of Almirola to string together the results he did at the end of the same while banking on other top drivers to hit the late-October rut that shake up the championship standings and take a good driver and make it appear they were better in the championship than they were.

3. Kyle Larson wins at least four races
Larson led 782 laps in 2018 and did not win a race.

Here is a list of the most laps led by a winless driver over the last few seasons:

2017: 560 (Chase Elliott)
2016: 358 (Chase Elliott)
2015: 115 (Kyle Larson)
2014: 529 (Matt Kenseth)
2013: 448 (Kurt Busch)
2012: 434 (Martin Truex, Jr.)
2011: 351 (Greg Biffle)
2010: 919 (Jeff Gordon)
2009: 551 (Greg Biffle)
2008: 604 (Matt Kenseth)
2007: 433 (Dale Earnhardt, Jr.)
2006: 292 (Mark Martin)
2005: 383 (Elliott Sadler)
2004: 692 (Kasey Kahne)

Only Jeff Gordon in 2010 led more laps than Larson did in 2018 and not score a victory in the Chase-era of NASCAR. Before Gordon, the last driver to lead more than 700 laps in a season and not win a race was Mark Martin in 1996, who led 702 laps. The last driver to lead more than 782 laps and not win a race in a season was Harry Gant in 1981, who led 1,169 laps!

In NASCAR's modern-era (since 1972), Larson had the third most laps led in a winless season. He had plenty of races that he was in control of and it just didn't go his way. The man had 12 top five finishes, fifth most in 2018, and 19 top ten finishes, eighth most in 2018.

In the spring Bristol race, he led 200 laps and Kyle Busch beat him late with the final lead change occurring with six laps to go. He led 101 laps in the spring Kansas race and cautions late kept Harvick in it and then contact with Ryan Blaney blunted any charge Larson could make. He made a late charge at Chicago and passed Kyle Busch on the final lap only to have Busch knock him out of the way.

Larson started on pole position for the Bristol night race but, incredibly, after leading the first 13 laps (ten of which were under caution), he led four more laps over the entire night but he still finished second.

Larson's biggest blow was Darlington. He led 284 laps and lost the race to Brad Keselowski on pit road. He led the most laps at Charlotte in September and he ran well at Homestead, leading 45 laps, before a flat tire deflated his victory hopes.

I think Larson will get a few short track victories and I think he will have a handle on the new aero package quickly.

To gauge how Larson does, keep in mind that Gant won twice in 1982 and Gordon won three times in 2011 and in 1997, Martin won four races and they finished fourth, eighth and third in the championship respectively.

4. Jimmie Johnson wins multiple races
We know the story. We know Johnson did not with a race in 2018, he is in the middle of the longest drought in his career, he and Chad Knaus have split and Kevin Mendeering will be Johnson's crew chief in 2019. We know it was the worst year of Johnson's career and it feels like the team is transitioning leadership to Chase Elliott but Johnson isn't going to fade away that easily.

The only race he was close to winning was Charlotte in September, the race he not only tossed away but the championship shot he tossed away. All he had to do was hold his position and he would have advanced to the next round but his bonkers move and shortsightedness cost him more than a victory.

The team has to turn it around and I think it will. Plus, I think the new package will be simple for him. I don't think Johnson will be chasing many races. Will he be the Johnson of 2006-2011? Probably not. Those days might be beyond us but I cannot see the slide continuing.

He had his first winless season. He had his fewest top five finishes in a season, matched his fewest top ten finishes in a season, had his fewest laps led in a season, his fewest lead lap finishes in a season and he had his worst championship finish but at 43 years old I do not think he has completely lost it like we have seen with other great drivers. Plus, Hendrick Motorsports is still a solid team. It hasn't lost a step.

I think we see Johnson right the ship and then we have to hear the Johnson resurgence story all year and get tired of it.

5. Martin Truex, Jr. has at least four victories
For a champion, Truex has had his fair share of career rebirths. He never fit in at Earnhardt Ganassi Racing during a troubled time when he entered while Dale Earnhardt, Jr. was having his unceremonious exit from his father's old team and the team lost all its identity. He went to Michael Waltrip Racing, wins a few races and then loses his ride because of actions of other team members, most notable Michael Waltrip and Clint Bowyer.

At that point he went to Furniture Row Racing and he went from possible championship contender at MWR to lost at FRR but the team worked it out and in five years at the team Truex was one of the best drivers in NASCAR during for four of them.

Now he has to start over again at Joe Gibbs Racing and while the move seems like it will only lead to more success on paper, JGR was a rival team and one that butted heads with Truex, crew chief Cole Pearn and FRR for a few seasons. There was some bad blood between the two teams and they are outsiders coming into a highly competitive operation.

It could be a rough season where Truex and Pearn find they do not fit in and it all comes apart. However, there is the alternative that those two will continue to click and their shared journey, the highs and the lows, will keep them from suffering from adversity. Those two have been through it all at FRR, from championships and race victories to the off-track hardships of illness and death and then the team shutting its doors.

I think Truex will be fine and I think he will quickly establish himself as the number two in the team behind Kyle Busch. He will give Busch a run for his money and I think the races Truex wins are the ones where he and Pearn have something but the other JGR cars will have difficult replicating. Busch will still be great and both drivers will likely be in the semifinal round.

6. At least three races that were below 50% good in Jeff Gluck's good race poll in 2018 increase in the good category by at least 25%
I like Jeff Gluck and his Twitter "Good Race Poll" is a fascinating and unscientific look into the mind of NASCAR fans.

It has its flaws and it is a simple thing. I would love to see him introduce in-race polls after each stage to gauge what fans think of a race and how the mood changes when it is all said and done.

Good is very subjective and human emotions are very temperamental. Sometimes we do not use logic when assessing what we just saw and whether it was good or bad. If you are a Chase Elliott fan and he wrecks after 20 laps, you may say a race is bad regardless of what happened after Elliott's retirement. If you pull for Joey Logano and he wins a race, you may say the race was good even if there was no passing during the race.

Because of the fluid nature of race fans and races themselves I think we will see some races see spikes up from 2017.

Ten championship races and the Clash were below 50% in 2018 and here are a few races that I think are front-runners to make big moves in 2019:

Both Talladega races: The spring race was at 49% good and the autumn race was at 41% good. Meanwhile, the two Daytona races were at 84% and 76%. In 2017, the Talladega races were 88% and 80%. They are plate races. One of these are bound to get back to above 74%.

Kentucky: It was the worst race in 2018 at 23%. When you look at how few "bad" races there were in 2018, this one should easily pick up ground. Even if it only picks up 25%, it would still be a "bad" race at 48-52. This race only has to be marginally better and with the new aero packages we don't know how the 1.5-mile ovals will be but if it increases the number of lead change it will likely increase the percentage of people who will say the race is good.

Sonoma: Truex ran away with this race in 2018 and it was after a bit of strategy. Truex's dominance led to the race only earning 47% good. The one thing on Sonoma's side is the change to the larger configuration. I think that alone is a 20% bump. Fans are too damn nostalgic. They are returning to a configuration that NASCAR used when most people probably wished there would be no road course races but don't let that stop those hypocrites say that this is the right thing for NASCAR.

The larger configuration brings in the turn seven hairpin and I think there will be plenty of bumping there. If there is a late race restart there will be an accident there between cars at the front.

The other thing on Sonoma's side: Road course races rate well. Watkins Glen and the Charlotte roval race were 94% good and 93% good in 2018, second and third. In 2017, Sonoma was 78% good and Watkins Glen was 68% good.

The other races that were below 50% in 2018 were the spring Pocono race (49%), the Clash (48%), Fontana (41%), the Coca-Cola 600 (38%), the August Michigan race (38%), the March Las Vegas race (35%) and the autumn Texas race (27%).

In 2017, seven races were below 50% good. One of those was the autumn Loudon race, which was discontinued from the schedule but of the six races that continued, only Kentucky went down in the good category, losing four-percent. The other five races all had double-figure gains, three of which had over 25% gains:

All-Star: +66%
Chicago: +62%
Pocono 2: +26%
Atlanta: +12%
Michigan 1: +11%

Yes, there will be races that go up and there will be races that go down but I think we will not see the same races being labeled as bad in 2019.

7. Neither points-paying Daytona Cup race has a last lap pass for the victory
What are the odds of it happening once after it happened twice in 2018? It is kind of like Team Penske's dominance in the autumn Talladega race. It was bound to end. There is bound to be a year when both Daytona races do not see a last lap pass.

If you go back to 2017, three of the last four Daytona races have had a last lap pass but each has been a bit different. In the 2017 Daytona 500 it was cars running out of fuel. In 2018, Austin Dillon spun Aric Almirola and Erik Jones made a clean pass on Martin Truex, Jr. and if you go back to 2016, Denny Hamlin led the final lap after Matt Kenseth led the 40 laps before that. Even Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.'s win in July 2017 came after he led only the final two laps. In the last three years, the most laps led after the final lead change was Brad Keselowski's 17 in July 2016.

I think we will see less chaos at Daytona than we have in the previous few seasons.

8. At least five championship-eligible drivers in NASCAR's second division have multiple victories
We did something like this for 2018 and it didn't work out but this prediction takes into consideration all the races.

We saw in 2018 how competitive the races were in NASCAR's second division when the Cup guys were not eligible to race in them and the final seven races were arguably the best of the season.

Christopher Bell won seven races in 2018 and he is going to be fine in 2019. Bell is going to win five or six races and likely win the championship. Justin Allgaier won five races and he might not do that again but he will win two or three. Tyler Reddick won the bookends of the season and won the championship and he did improve over the end of the season. Those were the only three championship-eligible drivers to win multiple times in 2018.

Ross Chastain will be full-time with Chip Ganassi Racing and all he did in the three starts he got in 2018 was lead the most laps at Darlington before Kevin Harvick ran him into wall, won at Las Vegas and finish second at Richmond. Two of those races were without Cup drivers but I think he will win a few races.

John Hunter Nemechek will be full-time at GMS Racing and he won with Chip Ganassi Racing as a part-time driver. Nemechek finished 13th in the championship despite competing in only 18 of 33 races and that is crazy when you realize he was the best driver not to make the Chase. GMS Racing is a good team. It might be slightly behind Ganassi but Nemechek is in a good position for results in 2019.

Chase Briscoe won the Charlotte roval race and he did not run a full season in 2018 but he will in 2019 and team with Cole Custer at Stewart-Haas Racing. Custer looked good on 1.5-mile ovals and a third year in the second division really is enough to become a regular contender.

Austin Cindric did not win in 2018 but he was in the fight at all the road course races and it isn't crazy to think he could win two road courses in 2019. What will be in Cindric's favor is he will be full-time in the #22 Ford for Team Penske and will not be split between three different cars in 2018.

Outside of those returnees, Noah Gragson moves up from the Truck Series and joins JR Motorsports. Justin Haley is moving up to Kaulig Racing after an impressive 2018 in Trucks. Plus, we cannot rule out a part-time driver getting a few wins. Will there be a Ryan Preece in 2019? Could a road course ringer come in and win a few races? Those are both possibilities

I think the talent is there that a few drivers will get victories and with cars no longer eligible to score owners' points if they run a Cup driver there is no longer an incentive to have a Cup guy in a race. I think more drivers are going to get opportunities and I think championship-eligible drivers will win more races where Cup guys are allowed to compete than they did in 2018.

9. Jeffrey Earnhardt gets at least one top ten finish in NASCAR's second division
Believe it or not, this guy is going to get a ride with Joe Gibbs Racing in NASCAR's second division for nine races in 2019, including the season opener at Daytona.

The third-generation driver has not had a great NASCAR career. There is no sugarcoating it. He has been awful. In 75 Cup starts, his average finish is 33.1 with his career-best being 11th in this past July Daytona race but that is the only top 20 finish in his Cup career. He has three lead lap finishes. Besides that July Daytona race he finished on the lead lap in the autumn Talladega race in 2016 and at the Charlotte roval race last year.

In 66 starts in NASCAR's second division, his average finish is 25.4 with his best finish being 12th in the Bristol night race in 2014 and at Talladega in 2015. In this series he has only 12 lead lap finishes.

There is nothing to suggest that Jeffrey Earnhardt is going to finish in the top ten with Joe Gibbs Racing. There is no Ross Chastain level of outperforming his equipment to make us think Earnhardt just needs a shot in decent equipment. There is none of that.

Why do I think he will get one top ten finish?

Because he has nine opportunities with Joe Gibbs Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing puts out good cars. When Bill Elliott ran the #23 Chevrolet GMS Racing at Road America, I felt that car was good enough that if you put a bad driver or one who had not raced in over five or six years behind the wheel it would finish 25th if the driver keeps it straight and out of harms way and Elliott ran around 25th for most of that one.

In this case, I think Gibbs produces cars good enough that if you put a bad driver behind the wheel that if that driver keeps it running it will finish 15th. In that case, all Earnhardt has to do is make up five positions and maybe there is a race where he has something and can pick up three spots on his own and on that same day two or three drivers have accidents or mechanical failures help elevate him a few more positions and into the top ten.

What else is in Jeffrey Earnhardt's favor?

Some pretty mediocre drivers scored top ten finishes with Joe Gibbs Racing. Coy Gibbs had two top ten finishes in 34 starts in 2003 and ironically those top ten finishes came in consecutive races at Texas and Talladega. Remember Brad Coleman? He had ten top ten finishes in 31 starts with JGR.

Kelly Bires had an eighth place finish at Chicagoland in one of his two starts with the team. His average finish in the second division was 23.3. Justin Boston made two starts with the team in 2014 and finished ninth and 12th. Ross Kenseth started second and finished sixth in his only start with Gibbs. Dakota Armstrong made one start with Gibbs at Iowa in 2016 and he started third and finished fifth. And then you have Brian Scott! Scott had 18 top ten finishes in 67 starts with the team.

If Earnhardt goes to Iowa when there are no Cup drivers with Gibbs, he may just finish ninth.

10. Kyle Busch Motorsports more than doubles its victory total in the Truck Series from 2018
The silent surprise of 2018 might be that Kyle Busch Motorsports won only three races in the Truck Series. Kyle Busch won in two of this five starts and he had two runner-up finishes. One of those runner-up finishes was to Noah Gragson at Kansas, Gragson's only victory.

That was it. The team won three times. I think Busch alone could win five races. Todd Gilliland and Harrison Burton will be full-time for the team. Gilliland almost won at Texas in November but not before he ran out of fuel on the final lap. Burton ran very well as a part-timer with three top five finishes and six top ten finishes from eight starts.

I think if Busch wins at least two, which seems low, Gilliland and Burton will each get two victories and that will be six and I think the team could easily get more than six. It would be not be surprising if one of Gilliland or Burton wins four races, the other wins two or three races and then Kyle Busch wins twice. And you cannot rule out someone running for KBM in a cameo getting a victory.

11. Let's make it seven different winners in seven Eldora races
I doubt Austin Dillon, Darrell Wallace, Jr. or Kyle Larson run it. Christopher Bell may be busy but he could be that KBM cameo driver who gets a victory. Matt Crafton isn't great on dirt and I don't think he does it again. Chase Briscoe will have a full-time ride in the Grand National Series to worry about but maybe his boss Tony Stewart makes sure he has a chance to defend his crowd.

Grant Enfinger nearly beat Briscoe to the lead. Johnny Sauter has yet to win this race and it would surprise no one if he did win it in 2019. USAC midget champion Logan Seavey led 53 laps at Eldora in 2018 driving for KBM and he won at DuQuoin in ARCA. I think he will be back. Stewart Friesen is a dirt guy.

I think we are looking at a scenario where the only previous winner in the race will be Crafton and we could have 31 of 32 drivers looking for their first Eldora victory. If that is the case, I am taking the field.

12. There is at least one announcement of a track reconfiguration/switch to a roval before Labor Day
Schedule changes are coming to NASCAR in 2020 but I am still skeptical over how much will really change. I do not think we are going to see big upheaval and new tracks galore to the Cup series. I don't think Iowa and Road America and Mid-Ohio and Circuit of the Americas and the Nashville Fairgrounds and Rockingham joining the schedule. I think we would be lucky to see one of those tracks.

International Speedway Corporation and Speedway Management, Inc. have too much power to just let races go.

But after seeing the boost from the roval, Sonoma went back to the larger configuration. With Sonoma doing that I think we are on the verge of Watkins Glen announcing it is running the boot. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if Watkins Glen made that change before the race in 2019.

I think another track will be looking at switching a race to a roval configuration and I think Pocono and Kansas are two places that would do it in a form of self-preservation to keep two races at each track but have the races be entirely different from one another and justify not having a race taken away and moved to a short track or another road course.

The other thing that seems to vogue is track reconfigurations. Could we see a track do something radical? Could we see a track shrink? A 1.5-mile oval go down to 3/4-mile short-track or maybe even a 1/2-mile oval? With tracks pulling out seats, wouldn't it look better to have a 1/2-mile with 50,000 seats than a 1.5-mile oval?

A track cutting off a mile is a bit of a stretch but I think we will see a track announce a change in hopes of causing a wave of momentum in its favor.

One set of predictions down and there are four more to go. The next set comes out Friday.