IndyCar's Unanswered Questions: Most Races Before First Pole Position

As the final round of qualifying began at Thermal Club nearly two weeks ago, I looked over the six participants and thought about how long it had been since each started on pole position. 

Colton Herta seems to regularly be on pole position, though it doesn't always turn out to be more in the race. Álex Palou has a good qualifying track record. Christian Lundgaard worked his fair amount of magic with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. It had been a minute for Patricio O'Ward. It had been a little longer for Ed Carpenter Racing and Alexander Rossi had a chance to do something special. Then came Marcus Ericsson.

It dawned on me Ericsson had never won a pole position, at least not one in my memory. I did know he was approaching 100 starts in IndyCar. 

Sure enough, Ericsson has never won a pole position in his IndyCar career and after Thermal Club weekend, the Swede has made 99 starts but has yet to start first. He is one race away from hitting a milestone without achieving another milestone in his career. 

That led to further questions. Who has the most starts before a first career pole position?

Not many could have gone 100 starts or more before getting a first career pole position. 

One problem, the answer is not that easy to find. For the length of IndyCar's history and the number of resources we have, there are still factoids such as this that are not easy to find an answer. A Google search does not provide an answer. It doesn't even get into the realm of a correct answer. 

Instead of relying on the mess of the internet, why not do the research and find the answer myself? With the breather IndyCar is taking this April, there is a chance to find the answer to some of the unanswered     questions surrounding the IndyCar record book. 

Speaking of the IndyCar record book, IndyCar only recognizes pole positions from the 1930 onward. Why 1930? Reasons have not been provided. It tracks victories since 1909 but starts and a number of other records since 1946, including victories from pole position. Various start points for different statistical categories are not uncommon. The NFL didn't start track sacks until 1982. The NBA didn't start recording steals and blocks until the 1973-74 season. All we can take is the record book as it is.

A total of 217 drivers are recognized as IndyCar pole-sitters in the record book.

Seven drivers took 100 races or more to win their first pole position. Who are they?

1. Scott Brayton - 148 Races

Brayton also holds the record fore most races before first career podium finish. It took Brayton 121 races to stand on the rostrum. When it came to his first career pole position, it took Brayton a little longer. 

Brayton's first career pole position is one of the more famous ones. At the 1995 Indianapolis 500, Brayton completed a four-lap average of 231.604 mph. It was his 14th time qualifying for the Indianapolis 500, and it led a Team Menard 1-2 on the grid. In the race, Brayton didn't lead a lap, and turbocharger issues dropped him to finish ten laps down in 17th. 

Brayton would return to run the three-race inaugural Indy Racing League season. At Indianapolis, in what would have been his 151st start, Brayton won his second career pole position after rolling out the backup car in the final hour of qualifying. 

Sadly, Brayton lost his life in a practice accident nine days prior to the race. 

2. Eddie Cheever - 140 Races

You never realize some of these surprising facts, but Eddie Cheever only had one pole position in his IndyCar career. It didn't come until his final full season in the Indy Racing League. It was the IRL's first race at California Speedway in Fontana. Cheever took pole position ahead of Team Menard's Jaques Lazier. Cheever led 33 laps in the race, but his engine expired ten laps prior to the finish. 

3. Michel Jourdain, Jr. - 126 Races

Jourdain, Jr. still holds the record for most starts before a first career victory. It took the Mexican 129 races before he won the 2003 CART race at Milwaukee. 

Three races prior to that, Jourdain, Jr. won his first career pole position. This was at Long Beach. It was a promising race as well. Jourdain, Jr. led 48 laps and was leading with seven laps remaining until a gearbox failure took him out of the race. From first to 15th in a matter of moments. At least Jourdain, Jr. would get his moment later that season. 

4. Pancho Carter - 116 Races

This one happened at a familiar place. Carter's first career pole position was at the 1985 Indianapolis 500, ten years prior to Brayton's, and Brayton was the one who broke the record for most starts before a first career pole position from Carter. Coincidentally, Carter beat Brayton for pole position in this race. They went 1-2 in qualifying, Carter at 212.583 mph and Brayton at 212.354 mph, both driving stock block Buick engines.

Carter's race only lasted six laps before an oil pump failed. Brayton's race was over after 19 laps due to a cracked cylinder wall.

5. Arie Luyendyk - 112 Races 

For a driver synonymous with speed and famed for holding the track record at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, it took Luyendyk an extended period to get his first career pole position. He also didn't win that many in his career, five to be exact. 

Like two of the four above him, Luyendyk's first career pole position came at the Indianapolis 500. This was in 1993, three years after his first career victory in the event. Driving for Chip Ganassi Racing, Luyendyk ran a four-lap average at 223.967 mph, just ahead of Mario Andretti.

Unlike Brayton and Carter, Luyendyk had a much better race. He was second behind Emerson Fittipaldi though Luyendyk only led 14 laps, the seventh-most out of 12 drivers that led in the race. 

6. Charlie Kimball - 109 Races

Another Chip Ganassi Racing driver, Kimball's only pole position came at Texas in 2017.

Prior to that weekend, Kimball had one front row start in his career. It was a front row sweep for Chip Ganassi Racing as Scott Dixon took second, ending up 0.0083 seconds off his American teammate. 

The joy was short-lived as Kimball exited the race after 41 laps due to an oil leak. 

7. Ed Carpenter - 102 Races

In 2010, it looked rather unlikely Ed Carpenter would win a pole position. Out of a ride due to Vision Racing closing its doors, Carpenter was forced to settle for an Indianapolis 500 one-off entry with Panther Racing. A good May with Panther turned into three additional races at the end of the season. 

At Kentucky, Carpenter took a surprise pole position ahead of Will Power and Panther teammate Dan Wheldon. 

In the race, Carpenter spent much of the race at the front, but he only led 11 laps. For a brief moment, it appeared Carpenter could pull out a victory, but he had to pit with four laps remaining. He still finished second, just over 13 seconds behind Hélio Castroneves, who stretched his fuel to run 53 laps on the final stint. 

When it comes to the current top ten, Oriol Servià (97 races), Al Unser, Jr. (94 races) and Raul Boesel (93 races) take the final three spots. Wally Dallenbach (90 races) is the only other driver to take at least 90 races to score his first career pole position. 

Among active drivers, Santino Ferrucci currently holds the longest wait before his first career pole position. Ferrucci took 74 races before he won his first career pole position at Portland last year. Josef Newgarden has the next longest streak among active drivers. Newgarden's first pole position was in his 63rd start at Milwaukee in 2015.

For some of IndyCar's greatest, the first pole position did not necessarily come early. 

A.J. Foyt's first pole position was in his 48th start, the same amount of races it took Kenny Bräck to get his first pole position. This combo is tied for the 34th longest wait. Foyt's first was in the 1961 Hoosier Hundred from the Indiana State Fairgrounds. Bräck was in the 2001 CART season opener in Monterrey. 

Bobby Unser's first pole position was his 47th start, September 5, 1966 at DuQuoin. 

Scott Dixon may have won in his third start, but Dixon's first pole position did not come until his 42nd race, the 2003 IRL race at Motegi. For perspective, Dixon is one of two drivers to have their first career pole position come in their 42nd career start. The other is Sebastián Saavedra in the inaugural Grand Prix of Indianapolis. 

Starting at Long Beach, Marcus Ericsson will have a chance to become the eighth driver to win a first career pole position in his 100th start or later. When it comes to other drivers, there are not many other notable names who are approaching a milestone in terms of starts before that first pole position. The only other active driver with 40 starts or more and zero pole position is David Malukas, who has 46 starts and no pole positions. It is currently a party of two, but we will get a third come May. When Jack Harvey returns with Dreyer & Reinbold Racing at the Indianapolis 500, he could make a spot for himself in the record book. Harvey has yet to start first in his first 93 starts. 

I hope we consider that one question answered. We will cover a few more after the Long Beach weekend.

 

Musings From the Weekend: The Honeymoon is Over. It is Time for Action

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking....

Marc Márquez proved he was human. Márquez won the sprint race from Austin but fell in the grand prix and Francesco Bagnaia took his first victory of the season. The conditions left riders scrambling down pit lane to switch bikes before the start of the MotoGP race. Driving standards were the focal point in Martinsville. Red Bull swapped Liam Lawson for Yuki Tsunoda. It rained in Sonoma, and it made the mess of GT World Challenge America's opening weekend. Competition aside, this week was consumed with what was a rough second act of the 2025 season for IndyCar.

The Honeymoon is Over. It is Time for Action

I thought I would be writing this the week after Long Beach. I expected after having three IndyCar races spread over seven weekends with races head-to-head against NASCAR, the NCAA basketball tournaments and The Masters would be when people would express severe dissatisfaction after a smashing season opener where everyone believed they were on a rocket ship. Little did we expect it would all come crashing back to earth immediately after the second race of the season.

The Thermal Club television rating was down 50% from the St. Petersburg season opener. IndyCar had fewer viewers than all there NASCAR national series competing at Homestead. One of those races was on a Friday night against a packed night of the first round of NCAA tournament and the other was on Saturday afternoon as the second round was getting underway. Formula One had more viewers for the Chinese Grand Prix, and even if you want to say most of those viewers watched on DVR and not live at 3:00 a.m. Eastern, it actually sounds worse because more people preferred to watch something taped than a live race where they had no clue what would happen next. 

Forget the technical issues that caused the IndyCar broadcast to be lost for 20 minutes with the NASCAR Cup race from Homestead as emergency filler programming on network television. The Thermal Club viewership numbers sparked a backlash as soon as the numbers came out. 

There was plenty of blame being tossed around. 

Viewership was down due to Thermal Club! The race itself was horrible! It was because it was head-to-head against NASCAR and college basketball! Three weeks between races was the main culprit! It is the chassis! It is the hybrid! It is Álex Palou's fault! The race should be at Texas! 

We heard it all, and factions arose quickly in the aftermath of the last week. For all those that were upset at the decrease, there was an undercurrent of those spinning the Thermal Club rating as not being that bad and expected. If the network is expecting the decrease then they aren't that upset when it happens. The race was defended as it did have over 200 passes and was on point with the action we see at other famed road courses on the schedule. We also had a race where second-place erased an 11-second lead in a matter of laps and made the pass for the victory on the racetrack. What else could a viewer want from a race?

Things can be two things. In the case of the second race of the season for IndyCar, many things can be true at once. 

It can be true that the Thermal Club race was a good race. It can be true the location and the backdrop of the event has turned people off. It can be true a three-week gap between the first two races is a momentum killer. It can be true the audience is divided when racing head-to-head against the NASCAR Cup Series. It can be true causal viewers are captured in the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament and will never know a race is happening. It can also be true that a new television deal is not going to make IndyCar exponentially more popular within two events than where it has been for the last two decades and this race falls around where the average has been for the series for a long time.

It can also be true that the St. Petersburg number wasn't some massive jump considering the viewership for the 2023 race on NBC race was essentially identical. 

IndyCar's issues are greater than whatever network is broadcasting the races, and it will take more than a few promos during the Super Bowl to truly grow the series. It is all fine and dandy that 126 million people watched the game and likely saw an IndyCar promo, but six weeks after the fact it is clear airing three commercials didn't change a thing. Sure, more people than ever became aware but as quickly as Josef Newgarden's torso was on the screen the audience moved on. Just because it was on their television screen does not mean they were paying attention.

It takes more than 30 seconds to attract a viewer. We can keep beating this drum until someone at 16th & Georgetown gets it, but growing the series requires making the drivers relatable to the audience to a point the viewer genuinely cares about those competing. That is what Drive to Survive did. It took people into a sanctum previously unvisited, and people became attached to the point they could not leave and needed more. 

For too long IndyCar has been hoping little work will lead a big reward. It is the grandma at the slot machine hoping a nickel will turn into a fortune. That is what the Super Bowl commercial was. It was hoping three 30-second ads would lead to a 50% or 100% increase in the average viewership. It is going to take a lot more than that, but that isn't the only thing that must change in IndyCar's thinking. 

The "Come to Jesus" moment has been due for quite sometime, and IndyCar must admit where it is at in the pecking order. The Indianapolis 500 is the outlier and perhaps the worst one the series could ask for. Five million people watching a race in May is not a true indication of IndyCar's popularity. The races like Thermal and Gateway and Mid-Ohio are where IndyCar actually stand. Indianapolis is not the issue. It is everywhere else where the series must do work.

Reasons become excuses when the general mood is disgust. Some of the explanations for the ratings drop are true, but what is tiring when it comes to IndyCar is too many of these reasons are seen as unconquerable when they actually aren't. 

Take racing head-to-head against NASCAR. 

It is understandable that when the two races are put against one another, more people will choose to watch the NASCAR race than the IndyCar race, even if you can watch the entire IndyCar race and still tune into the NASCAR race when there is nearly 90 minutes of racing left and all the memorable moments have yet to happen. 

As easy as it is to say, "Don't race against NASCAR," that isn't practical. 

Even with a shared partner in Fox, NASCAR isn't going to do IndyCar any favors. NASCAR is racing at 3:00 p.m. at Homestead, Bristol, Martinsville and anywhere on the East Coast to maximize viewership, and Fox wants to maximize viewership as well on FS1. That means a West Coast IndyCar race is going to be head-to-head, but IndyCar cannot decide it will never race on the West Coast because of NASCAR's start times. IndyCar cannot also bounce the races around and race at 9:00 a.m. Pacific so the race is over before NASCAR starts. 

IndyCar also cannot do the opposite and wait to race at 4:30 p.m. Pacific after the NASCAR race is complete. Fox didn't sign IndyCar to run in primetime on network television. IndyCar will get the network time slots that Fox is willing to give. IndyCar could run in Sunday primetime when on the West Coast, but those races will have to be on FS1, and for some reason, despite IndyCar being a predominantly cable series for over three decades, everyone is now allergic to a race being on cable, even if it could be for the greater good of the series. 

At some point IndyCar must accept the battle in front of it, but it also must recognize the current condition is not permanent. 

It is automatically accepted people are going to watch NASCAR over IndyCar. Why? 

Why isn't that something IndyCar tries to change? 

There is no decree from above that this is how it always will be. While IndyCar spend the better part of the 1990s and the start of the 21st century doing all it could to kill the series fighting over bullshit, NASCAR bloomed into a cultural force that can still thrive even if it is far from its greatest heights. That is a hard thing to overcome, but it is not impossible. 

Most people watching Formula One today in the United States were watching zero motorsports ten years ago. Formula One's audience is not a bunch of NASCAR defects who were looking for something more satisfying. They are mostly new people who never considered motorsports until Formula One was brought to the table in a digestible form. Formula One has become something they are passionate about and are invested when it comes on. There are people out there, different people, who will fall in love with motorsports if presented the right way. 

There is nothing stopping IndyCar from becoming a must-watch series. It is Herculean to shift viewership behaviors, but that is the battle ahead of IndyCar. It must turn the series into something where people think, "I must see this live." Whether that is because the drivers are people the viewers are enamored with or because the racing is compelling, that is the task at hand for IndyCar. 

At some point, it is no longer NASCAR's fault that IndyCar's ratings are poor. It is really on IndyCar for the IndyCar ratings being what they are. Instead of punting and acting like these are viewers that are never obtainable, the line must be drawn that it has been the series' inability to garner sizable interest for the last few decade as the reason why the second race of the season can barely draw more than 700,000 viewers on a Sunday afternoon in March. 

The fix will not happen overnight, but there are many minor things IndyCar can tweak to at least put it in a better position. At some point, the series must take a risk, and a lot of those risks involving "doing." It must add two or three races to fill the three-week gaps between events. The downtime early in a season is not helping the series, and the series cannot worry about the bottomline. It must accept a short-term loss in hopes of a long-term gain. 

IndyCar has been dealing with lengthy gaps between races at the start of the season for about a decade now and they clearly aren't good for the series. It is time IndyCar does something about it. The Grand Prix of Arlington should help matters. The inaugural running has been announced for March 15, 2026, and that will likely be the second round after St. Petersburg. Arlington joining the schedule next year should not come at the loss of another round. If you swap Arlington in and take Thermal out, guess what? There is going to be a month gap between races because we know Long Beach will be April 19, and we will be right back where we started. 

Considering the short window the IndyCar season fills from start to finish, it should maximize that time. It really doesn't have any other choices. 

Eliminating the multi-week gaps in the season is a small thing but the minimum change IndyCar must make. It is the first step. IndyCar cannot afford any longer to take it.

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Francesco Bagnaia and Marc Márquez, but did you know...

Jake Dixon won the Moto2 race from Austin, his second consecutive victory. José Antonio Rueda won the Moto3 race, his second victory of the season.

Denny Hamlin won the NASCAR Cup race from Martinsville. Austin Hill won the Grand National Series, his second victory of the season. Daniel Hemric won the Truck race, his first career Truck victory, and it came 11 years, five months and two days after Hemric made his Truck Series debut.

The #34 JMF Motorsports Mercedes-AMG of Mikaël Grenier and Michai Stephens and the #99 Random Vandals Racing BMW of Kenton Koch and Connor De Phillippi split the GT World Challenge America races from Sonoma. The #52 Auto Technic BMW of Zac Anderson and Colin Garett and the #97 CrowdStrike Racing by Random Vandals BMW of Kevin Boehm and Kenton Koch split the GT4 America races. George Kurtz and Kyle Washington split the GT America races.

Toprak Razgatlioglu swept the World Superbike races from Portimão. Can Öncü and Bo Bendsneyder split the World Supersport races.

Cooper Webb won the Supercross race from Seattle, his fourth victory of the season. Cole Davies won the 250cc race.

Coming Up This Weekend

Formula One will have an interesting weekend in Japan.

NASCAR has a race at Darlington.

European Le Mans Series opens its season in Barcelona.

Supercross crosses the country to Foxborough, Massachusetts.

Best of the Month: March 2025

It is back to normal. Formula One is here. IndyCar is here and no one is happy. Sebring is behind us and the FIA World Endurance Championship season has begun. MotoGP has restarted and Marc Márquez has turned back the clock. That was March, the month where the swing of motorsports can be felt. It might not be at full force, but after the previous three months, it is seismic. 

Much of the season remains unwritten, but a few races have given us an idea of how the script will turn out. We only have a piece but we are already guessing what will come next. We could be right, but we could be in for a surprise. We must wait and see.

Loeb and Ekström

This month started with the Race of Champions, an event I enjoy more than the average motorsports fan. It is something different in a motorsports world where everyone complains about the monotony. Everyone wants it to be the 1960s where the greatest talent regularly crossed paths. Here is an event that brings together an abundance of talent from various forms of motorsports. What else could you want? 

Sébastien Loeb was the big winner in this year's competition. He won everything. Loeb won the Nations' Cup on the first night, representing France with Formula Two driver Victor Martins. On the second night, Loeb won the Champion of Champions competition for a record-breaking fifth time. In doing so, Loeb became the first driver to win both competitions in the same Race of Champions.

A host of incredible drivers have competed in ROC. Loeb being the first to sweep the weekend is a bit surprising. You would have thought someone else would have done it once prior. Yet, it had never happened until Loeb had a magical weekend in Sydney. 

Loeb is 51 years old, past his prime but in the 21st century, sporting brilliance is finding a new outlook on life. We are no longer seeing tennis players break down in their early 30s or quarterbacks call it quits at 34. The best athletes are still competing at the highest levels deep into their 30s and into their 40s. For motorsports, some are competing into their 50s like Loeb. He is only a little over three years removed from his most recent World Rally Championship victory, and he has finished on the overall podium at the Dakar Rally in three of the last four years, with 14 combined stage victories during that time. 

After Loeb's victories in this year's Race of Champions, I started wondering what his overall record was in the competition. He has seven combined titles between the two ROC competitions. He has raced an unfathomable collection of drivers from around the world and from all different platforms. What is his record and what is his record against specific drivers?

Going over the results, I have found the following....

Loeb has competed in ten Race of Champions. In these ten ROCs, Loeb has competed in 88 races. He has gone 66-21-1 in those races. In 2022, he and Oliver Solberg ended one of their races in a dead heat, but since Loeb won the first race, he advanced to the next round. 

Loeb's winning percentage is 75% in ROC. 

He has competed against 36 drivers. Here is the list of drivers Loeb has a losing record against...

Mattias Ekström 2-4

Johan Krisoffersson 1-2

Will Brown 0-1

That's it. That's the list! And though he lost to Brown in the final of this year's Nations' Cup, Martins bailed Loeb out and they still won the title. 

Loeb went 8-2 against Marcus Grönholm, including winning his final seven races against the Finn. 

He is 4-1 all-time against Sebastian Vettel, which inlcudes going 3-1 in the 2022 Champion of Champions final. 

Loeb is 5-0 all-time against Tom Kristensen. 

There are only four other drivers Loeb has a .500 record against. They are Filipe Albuquerque (2-2), Heikki Kovalainen (2-2), who beat Loeb 2-0 in the 2024 Champion of Champions final, and Loeb got even with Kovalainen in the group stage of this year's Nations' Cup; Andy Priaulx (2-2) and Petter Solberg (1-1).

Loeb has beat David Coulthard (2-1), Jimmie Johnson (1-0), Tony Kanaan (2-0), Colin McRae (2-0), Stéphane Peterhansel (2-0) and he has even beat Walter Röhrl (1-0). It is rather remarkable.

However, entering this year's competition, there were two drivers gunning for their fifth Champion of Champions title. Unfortunately, illness kept Mattias Ekström from traveling to Australia to defend his title, and it is a shame because Chaz Mostert made the final and faced Sébastien Loeb. Chaz Mostert was the driver that replaced Ekström. It was lined up for us to see the two drivers with four titles each go for the record. 

As you saw above, Ekström has a winning record against Loeb. It all began in 2006. Ekström won the Champion of Champions final 2-0. In 2008, Ekström beat Loeb in the Nations' Cup first round. They would not meet again until 2022 in the Nations' Cup semifinal. Loeb won 2-1. 

If we are looking at Loeb's record, and Ekström has one fewer title but the better head-to-head record, how does Ekström stack up overall?

Ekström has competed in nine Race of Champions, but only 17 competitions. He did not compete in the 2011 Nations' Cup in Düsseldorf. 

The Swede has run 58 races. His record is 44-14. That is a winning percentage of 75.862%. If you dropped Loeb's deadhead with Oliver Solberg from the record, Ekström and Loeb would have identical winning percentages in Race of Champions competition!

Who has Ekström beat? Besides Loeb...

Ekström is 4-0 against Tom Kristensen (oof... sorry Tom)...

4-2 against Michael Schumacher (including being 4-1 all-time in finals against Schumacher)...

2-0 against Mick Schumacher... 

1-0 against Sebastian Vettel... 

6-0 against Travis Pastrana (Pastrana's ROC participation is a conversation for another time)... 

And Ekström has beat Sébastien Bourdais, Jenson Button, Mick Doohan, Heikki Kovalainen, Colin McRae and Bernd Schneider in his one meeting against them. 

Who does Ekström have a losing record against? 

Out of 28 drivers, the answer is Marcus Grönholm (2-3), Sébastien Ogier (0-1), Nelson Piquet, Jr. (0-1) and Martin Tomczyk (0-1).

Other than Grönholm, he has only lost to guys he has faced once. Of all the drivers Ekström has faced twice, he has won at least once. The only drivers that are .500 with Ekström are both Petter and Oliver Solberg (each are 1-1) and Andy Priaulx (2-2, man does this make Andy Priaulx look good).

Not many have had Ekström's number. 

Loeb is 51 and Ekström is 46. Both are pretty much done with full-time driving. They still compete in rally-raid and Ekström was third overall in the Dakar Rally this year. A day is coming soon where they will not be at Race of Champions. 

We must probably recognize what they have done in this competition and the greatness of both drivers.

Road America's Endurance Race

At this year's 12 Hours of Sebring, IMSA got ahead of the curve again when it announced its 2026 calendar nearly ten months before the first round. Nothing has changed except for Road America becoming a six-hour race while Indianapolis will revert to the two-hour and 40-minute duration. 

Since Grand-Am and the American Le Mans Series merged ahead of the 2014 season, people clamored for an endurance race at Road America. It was generally dismissed over increasing a race distance and keeping the full season to the same number of hours. However, when Indianapolis became the fifth endurance race on the schedule a few years ago, the door was opened and instead of maintaining the endurance race at one of the most famous venues in the United States, it will move to Road America. 

There are plenty of positives to this decision. 

1. We get a longer Road America race.

2. This race will occur during the summer and not during football season at a venue just down the road from an NFL stadium where a game could be taking place simultaneously. 

3. It shows flexibility from IMSA. It is a little surprising it is taking away an endurance race from Roger Penske's venue, but it shows it can work with all parties and give Road America something special after being an outstanding event for all these years while keeping Indianapolis on the schedule and at a pivotal place as the penultimate round. 

This does make me wonder if IMSA's fifth endurance race could be a rotating endurance race. The schedule is pretty short. Half the schedule is endurance races. There are also two races that could not be endurance rounds, the street races in Long Beach and Detroit. That leaves Laguna Seca, Mosport and Virginia International Raceway. 

If it is going to be an endurance race, it will have all four classes competing. Currently, none of those three venues host all four races. LMP2 does not go to Laguna Seca, GTP doesn't go to Canada, and neither prototype class visits Virginia. Laguna Seca is also tight on space, as is Mosport.

One of the faults of the IMSA calendar is certain areas do not see the top class and the top drivers. It is shame GTP doesn't go to Canada and VIR remains the only GT-only round on the schedule. Lime Rock Park for a number of years also had the GT-only distinction but the current prototypes are likely more than the track can handle. 

A rotating endurance race could be the way to bring GTP to some of these places even if it is not on an annual basis. 

For starters, we get Road America, and we should be thankful for that. 

April Preview

Speaking of endurance races, next month the European Le Mans Series begins, a collection of a half-dozen four-hour races spread over spring, summer and a bit of autumn. Though lacking LMDh and Hypercars, Europe's premier sports car champion is an outstanding gathering of talent in the LMP2. 

Take last year's champions AO by TF. Louis Delétraz, Robert Kubica and Jonny Edgar were the drivers. They any good?

Unfortunately for Delétraz, he has lost his two co-drivers from last year, but don't worry, he has Dane Cameron and P.J. Hyett joining him in the #99 Oreca. It will be a pro-am entry, meaning the overall championship will be an unlikely repeat, but there are plenty of stellar lineups set to compete for the top prize. 

How about IDEC Sport's two cars? In preparations for running the Genesis program in 2026, IDEC is holding auditions for next year. In the #18 Oreca will be Jamie Chadwick, Mathys Jaubert and Daniel Juncadella. The #28 Oreca will see 2019 champions Paul-Loup Chatin and Paul Lafargue reunite with Job van Uitert filling out the entry. Not bad.

Perhaps you want drivers who are already competing in LMPh or Hypercars. ELMS has that as well. 

Try Nielsen Racing's #24 Oreca, which has Filipe Albuquerque leading the way with Ferdinand Habsburg and Cem Bölükbasi. 

If you are looking for a Meyer Shank Racing Acura driver, you are in luck. Nick Yelloly will be in the #43 Inter Europol Competition Oreca along with Tom Dillmann, who was second in the championship last year, and Jakub Śmiechowski. There is also Tom Blomqvist in the #37 CLX - Pure Racing orca with Alex Malykhin and Tristan Vautier. 

Oh, and the other CLX Motorsport Oreca will feature Lusophone's finest in Pipo Derani, Manuel Espírito Sano and Enzo Fittipaldi. If Enzo Fittipaldi is not the Fittipaldi you are looking for, Pietro Fittipaldi will be in the #10 Oreca for Vector Sport with Ryan Cullen and Vladislav Lomko. 

We haven't even mentioned United Autosport yet. It is approaching five years since United Autosports' most recent ELMS title. It will have Oliver Jarvis, Marino Sato and Daniel Schneider in the #21 Oreca, a pro-am entry. Ben Hanley, Manuel Maldonado and Grégoire Saucy will be in the #22 Oreca, a pro entry.

IndyCar reject Théo Pourchaire has found a home at Algarve Pro Racing in its #25 Oreca with Lorenzo Fluxá and Matthias Kaiser. 

AF Corse keeps two-time defending pro-am champions François Perrodo, Alessio Rovera and Matthieu Vaxivière together in the #88 Oreca. 

If you were wondering, "Where is Sérgio Sette Câmara competing these days?" Look no further than ELMS! Câmara has James Allen and Anthony Wells as his co-drivers in the #27 Nielsen Racing Oreca.

We haven't even touched the LMP3 and GT3 classes in the series. There is plenty of reasons to be excited about this ELMS season. 

Barcelona hosts the first round on April 6 before visiting Circuit Paul Ricard on April 6, Imola on July 6, Spa-Francorchamps on August 24, a return to Silverstone on September 14 with the season closing at Portimão on October 18. 

Other Events of Note in April:

After a round in Suzuka, Formula One will run two night races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

IndyCar and IMSA get together for a weekend at Long Beach. 

MotoGP will be at Qatar and Jerez.

NASCAR visits its core: Darlington, Bristol, Talladega.

The Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters opens its season at Oschersleben.

Supercross spends a month in the Northeast. 

Musings From the Weekend: Wandering the Desert

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

It is 2025, and a Brabham (Matt) and an Andretti (Adam) finished 1-2 at Road Atlanta (Trans-Am). Ferrari suffered a devastating blow post-race in Shanghai, a double disqualification. There was another unfulfilled finish in the NASCAR world. There were another two pretty good races in Homestead, however. Supercross came back with a Triple Crown weekend. Álex Palou brought Zak Brown's worst nightmare to life, as Palou passed two McLaren cars and drove off to win by over ten seconds at Thermal Club, which hosted its first IndyCar championship race, a notable occasion for many reasons.

Wandering the Desert

Palm Springs, California is much different than St. Petersburg, Florida. 

Trading in the blue bay and breeze for the yellow sands and mountainous backdrop, IndyCar experiences a swift shift in the surroundings. At least it is still warm. 

Possible more notable than going from a street circuit with an airport runway for a main straightaway to a country club racetrack is what is missing.

The people. 

After starting the season with a festival atmosphere that attracts attendees from all over, some hoping to escape the final weeks of winter to the locals who are happy to have the race back in town, IndyCar experiences a sharp juxtaposition at Thermal Club. 

There is nobody there. 

We say that about a lot of races. There are obviously some people there, but at St. Petersburg you know people are there. There are the yachts and grandstands in multiple corners. People watch from balconies surrounding the circuit, taking advantage of a fortunate apartment or hotel location. You can see people walking around the grounds as the cars are on track. You rarely see a soul at Thermal Club. 

It doesn't help that ticket sales were limited to 5,000. Around a three-mile circuit, there is no way 5,000 people will ever look like a crowd even if they are all crammed into one grandstand on the outside of the circuit. That is 5,000 people for race day. It is far less on Friday and Saturday when there is no other competition on track. There wasn't a Road to Indy Series or SRO America series to fill the bill. Thermal is an IndyCar-only weekend. When IndyCar goes quiet, the circuit goes quiet. There is nothing keeping people around.

For the members who have a home at the circuit, no problem. They can go inside and turn on the television or take a nap. I cannot imagine why anyone would stick around as public spectator. 

They are entirely different weekends, but in the second weekend with a new television broadcaster that is trying to sell IndyCar and give people a reason to be excited about it, racing at a place where there is no excitement is not going to convince viewers to continue watching. 

It doesn't help when the broadcast goes out for 20 minutes and NASCAR is the emergency filler programming. It does not appear the facility had anything to do with the broadcast issues, but it happened at Thermal Club, a venue that has next to zero supporters in the fanbase. The opposition didn't need any more ammunition against this event.

I wrote last year that there are not many places lining up to host IndyCar. Thermal Club was willing to spend $2 million for the sanctioning fee. IndyCar went to a willing partner, but it is a partner that arguably does not care about the greater good of IndyCar. It is a place that cannot accommodate that many spectators to begin with. It isn't looking to provide a larger gathering. The race exists for the club and is a gift to the members. 

The 5,000 tickets on sale are to recoup the loss. Do the math. At a $475.75 for general admission, 5,000 tickets will rake in $2,378,750. If the total allotment is sold, Thermal Club breaks even. It is the only way the club is willing to make money. There was no sponsorship around the circuit. No billboards in the background. No wrap around the tire barriers. The race didn't have a title sponsorship. Those are all ways the circuit could raise revenue and cover the cost, which would allow tickets to be more affordable, but sponsors and billboards are not the aesthetic of a club. No one wants to see faded Firestone signage when they step out onto their patio on a Saturday morning in September. They don't want any reminders an IndyCar race was held there. 

Long-term viability of this race comes down to how long the members want to pay for it. If they can sell all the tickets, then the race will pay for itself with non-members money, and Thermal Club will continue to host it. If they can get 5,000 non-members, some would call them "suckers," to pay for their party, they are going to keep holding it, but even if they only sell half or a quarter, are they willing to eat a $1,000,000 loss every year to have something special? Other tracks have a bottom line to meet. They cannot afford lose money on an event year after year. Thermal can make money in a number of other ways, and it constantly has people paying membership fees. It is a group that can stomach a loss.

IndyCar has a decision to make. It isn't going to say no to someone paying a full sanctioning fee to host an event, but is this boosting IndyCar in a notable way? We were told ahead of last year's race Thermal is about attracting big fish. People with multi-million dollar bank accounts who run large companies and can turn into a sponsor, whether that is of a race team or the series itself. That's nice. These teams need someone to foot the increasing budgets to compete in the series, but IndyCar also need to reach more people. 

The series needs quality AND quantity. It needs the rich man with money to burn but it also needs the common man who is looking for a new hobby that can turn into a passion. At best, 5,000 people are attending Thermal Club, a race in Southern California three weeks before another race in Southern California, and one that is hailed as one of IndyCar's biggest races in Long Beach. 

Are those 5,000 people more valuable than 25,000 people at Pocono or Loudon or Richmond? What about 50,000 people over an entire weekend at Watkins Glen or maybe Virginia International Raceway? One part of the country is barren of IndyCar's presence and yet IndyCar is wondering why its reach is lacking. Southern California already had a race and didn't need another. The excess is waste. The potential for growth is stunted with such an event at a time when the series must look to spread beyond the shell it has bunkered into since the pandemic started five years ago. If IndyCar was in every corner of the country, or at least in the major areas, and it had 20 or 22 races, then perhaps there is a place for Thermal to host this race, but that is not the case.

After pumping up IndyCar in St. Petersburg and creating a scene, IndyCar retreated into isolation. It brought the race to the people and then ran to the middle of nowhere. It went from a party for all to a party where you aren't invited and they aren't going to make it easy for you to get through the door. Such a contrast can only leave people asking, "What is IndyCar and is it for me?" After a second trip to the desert, a weekend where the lack of atmosphere screamed louder than the race cars, hopefully the series is asking itself the same question. 

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Álex Palou, but did you know...

Oscar Piastri won the Chinese Grand Prix. Lewis Hamilton won the sprint race.

Kyle Larson won the NASCAR Cup race from Homestead, his 30th career victory, the 30th driver to reach that milestone. Justin Allgaier won the Grand National Series race, his second consecutive victory. Kyle Larson also won the Truck race, his fourth career victory in the series.

Elfyn Evans won the Safari Rally Kenya, his second consecutive victory.

Chase Sexton won the Supercross Triple Crown round from Birmingham after winning the first two races and finishing second in the third. Cooper Webb won the final race. Nate Thrasher won the 250cc round after finishes of third, third and second. R.J. Hampshire (race one) and Seth Hammaker (races two and three) split the three races.

Coming Up This Weekend

MotoGP comes to the United States for a round in Austin.

NASCAR will be in Martinsville.

World Superbike has its first race in Europe with a visit to Portimão.

Supercross strolls into Seattle.

First Impressions: Thermal Club 2025

1. Álex Palou is the best IndyCar has at the moment, and it helps that he is paired with the best team. This race was more than Palou having a new set of alternate tires for the final stint of the race. This was a complete race, 65 laps run caution-free, and it required a rounded strategy with a rounded drive. 

Patricio O'Ward dominated this race over the first 50 laps. This was shades of Texas 2023 where O'Ward had nearly lapped the entire field through the first two-thirds of the race. O'Ward started on a new set of alternate tires and he was gone. No one was close while the rest of the field was left fighting with themselves, but this was a full race. 

Palou held ground in third behind Christian Lundgaard. It didn't matter that he was losing a little time on the primary tire. If anything, the middle two stints were a warning. Palou wasn't sluggish on the primary tire. He was comfortable. When it came time to the final stint, Palou could let it rip.

After the final round of pit stops, Palou was over ten seconds behind O'Ward with 16 laps remaining, and proceeded to rundown the Mexican driver and was leading with nine laps remaining. The tires were the deciding factor, but only because they were underneath Palou. If you put any of the other 26 drivers on the grid in Palou's situation with 16 laps to go, maybe two or three others could have won this race, and that is generous to say two or three. 

Palou went from ten seconds back to ten seconds up at the checkered flag. That is brilliance at the highest level. Barry Wanser deserves recognition for how this race was called and Palou has the talent to make such a strategy work. For the first time since 2020, a driver has opened a season with consecutive victories. The batting average of those drivers turning two wins on the spin into championships is ridiculously high. It is only March, spring a few days old, but get the stencil out now and prepare the Astor Cup accordingly.

1B. There are some rumors about a new Formula One team being interested in an IndyCar driver. The only reasonable option is Álex Palou. Hiring any other driver would be foolish.

2. Hindsight is 20/20, but O'Ward only using one set of alternate tires might have been the deciding factor. The alternate tire was the better tire today, even when worn. O'Ward went with three new sets of primary tires over the final three stints. Would have using one used set of alternate tire to been enough to hold off Palou after the final stop? I think there is a good chance it would have been. 

Palou started on used alternate tires and O'Ward drove away but when you consider O'Ward had over a ten-second gap after that final pit stop, I don't know if Palou could have made that up if O'Ward used the alternates. It would have been close, but one set of used alternate tires could have been the difference.

3. This was Zak Brown's nightmare. After McLaren went 1-2 in the Chinese Grand Prix with Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris, halfway through this race it looked like Arrow McLaren was set for a 1-2 at Thermal Club. It looked like a victory was a guarantee even if it wasn't a sweep of the top two spots. Suddenly, Álex Palou, a man the McLaren organization has sued for about $23 million to recoup investments, spoiled the whole damn party. Somewhere in Shanghai, an American is having a sour Monday morning. 

4. Christian Lundgaard did round out the podium for McLaren. A 2-3 day isn't quite a 1-3 or a 1-2. Same number of trophies are brought home; total square inches much less than anticipated. But Lundgaard had a phenomenal weekend. 

Both McLarens ended on primary tires. Lundgaard went used alternate to new alternates in the first two stints. That kind of made his bed. With this being a three-stop race, it isn't even hindsight that was saying end on the alternates. Ten of the top 12 finishers finished on the alternates. The only two that didn't were the McLarens. 

Through two race weekends, the Dane has matched O'Ward, and McLaren finally has a 1-2 combo that can do some damage in IndyCar. We are going to see more stout days for Lundgaard this season.

5. Rounding out the top five were Colton Herta and Felix Rosenqvist. As much as we can say the alternates were the right choice, it wasn't clear as day. Herta ended on new alternates while Rosenqvist used alternates on his final three stint, the last two were used. In the closing laps, Rosenqvist was closing on Herta. Herta held on by 0.5575 seconds to finish fourth. 

Kyle Kirkwood spent much of this race in fourth. Kirkwood ended on used alternates and he stopped on the same lap, lap 48, as Rosenqvist for that final set. Rosenqvist ended up fifth and pushing for forth. Kirkwood dropped to eighth and spent the final half-dozen laps running laps in the one-minute and 50-second range. 

Some teams had the balance to get the most of the alternates for an entire stint. Others clearly struggled at the very end.

Credit to Herta and Rosenqvist for making it work. Both likely want more than fourth and fifth because while in the top five, neither were in the picture for victory. There is plenty of ground to make up. 

6. It was a caution-free race and Will Power went from 21st to sixth. The one blessing in disguise to not advancing from the first round of qualifying is the extra set of new alternate tires. Power's final three stints were new alternates, used alternates and new alternates. He was making hay over the entire race but especially in the final 20 laps. Power still has it and the strategy was maximizing the tires at this team's disposal.

7. Marcus Armstrong needed to finish seventh today. If he doesn't have the suspension issue at St. Petersburg, Armstrong would have finished in the top ten. Meyer Shank Racing showed good speed again and Armstrong had to convert it into something. Starting and finishing seventh is all you can ask for. He didn't stand out today, but sometimes you just need to get a result on the board. Armstrong did that.

8. No one suffered more at the end of a stint on alternate tires than Kyle Kirkwood in the run to the checkered flag. It was kind of stunning seeing how off he was in those closing laps. We didn't see many others struggle that much late on used alternate tires. It really looked like alternate tires that were 18-20 laps old were still slightly better than primary tires at the same age or at least on level footing. I don't know if there was a greater problem. Eighth is not an accurate representation of Kirkwood's day.

9. I am not sure ninth is an accurate representation of Alexander Rossi's day either. He also struggled late on the alternate tire. The good thing is Ed Carpenter Racing produced a race car that could run in the top ten all day on a road course, and Rossi looked comfortable all day. Until the very end, but still, Rossi wasn't dropping back mid-race and then trying to claw spots back. They are close but still have some work to do.

10. Scott Dixon went from 11th to tenth, but he did more than that because Dixon started on the primary tire and dropped to like 18th or 19th in the opening stint. He ended with three consecutive stints on the alternate tire, but only the final stint was on a new set. That led to the charge into the top ten. It salvaged a day more than anything else.

11. If it wasn't for Palou's final stint and Will Power going from 21st to sixth, Graham Rahal would have a strong case for drive of the day. He went 18th to 11th, but he was running better than that as his middle two stints were on new alternate tires. He ended on a used set and that might have cost him a top ten. Rahal was about 4.5 seconds slower than Dixon on the final lap of the race. If Rahal runs the used alternates a stint early, you could argue he would have been in the same spot, but I think the argument should be to end on the best tires you got. That seems more advantageous than ending on a used set.

12. To bolster Ed Carpenter Racing's confidence, Christian Rasmussen was 12th, and he ended on a set of new alternate tires. Other than the final stint and making up some ground, Rasmussen wasn't all that present in this race, but he ended on a good impression.

13. I don't know what Josef Newgarden was doing using two sets of new alternates mid-race and then finishing on new primary tires. My only guess is Newgarden didn't have faith in used alternates, and that might have been a good choice as he was still running below a minute and 50 seconds in the closing laps. It felt like Newgarden hit 12th and then couldn't run better than that. 

14. For a driver that lost his hybrid early, 14th for Santino Ferrucci is an outstanding day. When that was announced, Ferrucci was running just outside the top ten, and we had just gotten pass the first pit stop. It felt like he was in for a long day. This might not have been the best possible outcome, but it felt like it was going to be much worse than this.

15. As for everyone outside the top 14, I don't know if there is much to say about any of them.

Kyffin Simpson kept it on the track and finished 15th, we didn't see Conor Daly once as he finished 16th, Rinus VeeKay didn't have a good second stint on the primary tire and he lost ground to 17th. 

David Malukas and Nolan Siegel feel like missed opportunities. Malukas started inside the top 12, started on new alternate tires and then blew it on primary tires on the second stint. He ended on primary tires as well in 18th position.

Siegel was trapped behind Ferrucci during the second stint when Ferrucci was on primary tires with no hybrid system and Siegel had new alternates. Siegel could not make a move and others pounced on him. And then he made this a four-stop race as he only did ten laps on used alternates before primary tires for 14 laps and then one more run on used alternates. His strategy was garbage, and it led to a 19th-place result. That seems likes a team that got stuck and couldn't stop making mistakes.

16. Devlin DeFrancesco spun Scott McLaughlin before we even got to the green flag. DeFrancesco had a penalty, though I think 20th was the best he was going to do regardless. 

Marcus Ericsson lost spots running wide on the opening lap and then spun after his first pit stop, losing more ground. Two stints on primary tires, one of which was used, in the middle of the race did not help Ericsson's cause. Twenty-first is a brutal result.

17. I am going to cover both Prema cars here. Robert Shwartzman had a slow first pit stop. Shwartzman started well, but I think the team played it too conservative with two stints on new primary tires in the middle of the race. The team only ran qualifying and the warm-up. It didn't have the data to trust if it could do three stints on the alternates. For a team in its second race with nothing to lose, it should have just bit the bullet. 

Callum Ilott ran into the back of someone at the start and had to stop for a front wing change after lap one. It cost him a lap early and it was a 22-26 day for Prema.

18. Sting Ray Robb was out there and finished 23rd. If you forgot about him, you were not alone. 

I don't know what happened to Louis Foster that led him to finish 24th after starting tenth. There might be a reason for that. We will get to it in a moment. 

Jacob Abel. Two starts, two races finishing off the lead lap, and a drive-through penalty after his first stop did not help.

19. Oh, Scott McLaughlin. Started 25th only to be spun before the green flag and then the hybrid overheating was a crushing outing at Thermal. This is the second consecutive year McLaughlin has finished last in the second race of the season. Last year, he recovered and had a brilliant season. I bet he wasn't hoping not to have to repeat last season.

20. Thermal produced a good race, and last year showed the potential. With how quick tires wore down, a full race with a full field of cars and not 12-14 cars sets itself up for stellar race. Palou and Lundgaard traded passes for five consecutive corners. Palou erased a ten-second gap in no time. There were battles throughout the field. This wasn't a processional race by any means. It got strung out at the front at times, but this being a caution-free race with the variety of tire strategy made it exciting. 

This was no different than a race we have seen at Road America or Mid-Ohio or Laguna Seca. I don't know if the alternate/primary balance was too much in favor of the alternate, but Firestone will figure it out. Either way, we saw a race where teams had to really choose what tire to use. This was a three-stop race for everyone. Perhaps a little better primary tire opens up the pit windows. It was three stops but everyone could only make it 18 to 20 laps. I don't know if IndyCar wants it so a car can do 22 laps comfortably and make this a two-stop vs. three-stop race, but it would add another dimension that would not hurt.

21. I feel like I missed a lot of this race, and we all did because the broadcast went down for 20 minutes. It is unclear if it was just the television compound or the entire Thermal Club facility. Reports on the ground was the media center was fine throughout the 20-minute period. Timing and scoring did stay up. 

Things happen. If you recall NBC's first race on network television at St. Petersburg in 2019, part of that race experienced some technical issues. As technologically advanced as we have become, teething issues persist. They have been a little more noticeable over the first two races than anyone would like, and there is no way to spin losing a race broadcast for 20 minutes into a positive. The only positive is it was 20 minutes in the middle of the race and to the final 20 minutes. 

22. We have three more weeks to iron things out until Long Beach.

Morning Warm-Up: Thermal Club 2025

Patricio O'Ward snatched his sixth career pole position with a lap of 99.9567 seconds around the Thermal Club circuit, and O'Ward will lead an all-Arrow McLaren front row to the green flag for the Thermal Grand Prix. Christian Lundgaard took second spot ending up 0.1678 seconds off his teammate. For O'Ward, it is his first pole position since Mid-Ohio 2022, 43 races ago. In four of his five pole position starts, the Mexican driver has finished in the top five. He has finished second, third, fourth and fifth from the first starting spot. O'Ward's other finish was 24th after a fuel pressure issue in that 2022 Mid-Ohio race. While O'Ward won at Mid-Ohio last season, his average finish on natural-terrain road courses was 11.333 and his next best result was eighth.

Christian Lundgaard ending up second makes this Arrow McLaren's first front row lockout ever in IndyCar, whether dating back to this organization's origins as FAZZT Race Team or McLaren's first foray into American open-wheel racing in the 1970s. This will be the fifth time Lundgaard has started on the front row in his career. The Dane has finished in the top five every time he has started on the front row in his career. Lundgaard has never finished better than 19th in the second race of the season.

Álex Palou was 0.3525 seconds off O'Ward, and Palou will start third. Palou is attempting to become the first driver to win consecutive races to open a season since his Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Scott Dixon did it in 2020. The earliest Palou has won two races in a season is seven rounds, which he did in 2023. Palou's 12 victories for Ganassi is the fourth-most in team history behind Dixon (57), Alex Zanardi (15) and Dario Franchitti (13).

Colton Herta is on the outside of the second row. The California-native was 0.4411 seconds off pole position. Herta has never opened a season with consecutive finishes outside the top ten. He was 16th at St. Petersburg three weeks ago. Herta had top ten finishes in all six races held on natural-terrain road courses last season. He has finished in the top five in eight of his last 11 starts.

Marcus Ericsson makes it two Andretti Global cars starting inside the top five with Ericsson 0.7868 off O'Ward's top time. Ericsson was sixth in the season opener. Every time he has finished in the top ten in the first race of the season, Ericsson has finished in the top ten of the second race of the season as well. Last year, Ericsson started fifth in two races, and he finished fifth in both of those races as well.

Alexander Rossi takes sixth on the grid in what was Ed Carpenter Racing's first appearance in the final round of qualifying since the 2022 Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Rossi had one appearance in the final round of qualifying last season. That was at Laguna Seca. Rossi was tenth at St. Petersburg. In his first nine seasons, Rossi has opened the season with consecutive top ten finishes only three times, including last year.

Marcus Armstrong missed out on the final round of qualifying by 0.0728 seconds. This is the fifth time Armstrong in starting in the top ten in his last seven starts. While Armstrong had two top five finishes and three top ten finishes on natural-terrain road courses last season, he finished 17th or worse in the other three natural-terrain road course events.

Kyle Kirkwood takes eighth on the grid after falling 0.121 seconds shy of advancing from the second round. Kirkwood has finished in the top five of his last two starts. The only time he has had three consecutive top five finishes was last season over the Detroit, Road America and Laguna Seca rounds. He won from eighth at Nashville in 2023, the only other time Kirkwood has started eighth in his career.

Meyer Shank Racing has its two cars starting nose-to-tail with Felix Rosenqvist in ninth. Entering this weekend Rosenqvist had started on pole position for the second race of the season for three consecutive years. His average finish in those three races was 18.667. This is the eighth time Rosenqvist has started ninth in his career. The last two times he has started ninth, he has finished 27th, and he has failed to finish four of the first seven races where he has started ninth.

In his second career start, Louis Foster has his first career top ten start in IndyCar. The Briton will take tenth on the grid. Foster was classified in last place at the season opener. The most recent driver to finish last in the first race of the season and then win a race later that year was Josef Newgarden in 2016. An IndyCar race has not been won from tenth starting position since the second Belle Isle race in 2018, 108 races ago, which Ryan Hunter-Reay won.

Scott Dixon starts 11th, the tenth time in the last 19 races Dixon has started outside the top ten. For five consecutive seasons, Dixon has finished in the top five of the second race of the season. In three of those races, he has finished fifth. In the other two he has won, including last year at Long Beach. However, Dixon started inside the top eight in all five of those races.

David Malukas was the slowest qualifier in the second round of qualifying, and Malukas slots into 12th on the grid. This is the fourth time in his last five road/street course races Malukas has made it to the second round of qualifying. In five starts in the state of California, Malukas' best finish is 13th and he has a career average finish of 18th.

Rinus VeeKay missed out of the second round of qualifying by 0.0838 seconds, and the Dutchman will start 13th. VeeKay ended an 18-race top ten drought for Dale Coyne Racing with his ninth-place finish in the St. Petersburg season opener. It was the fourth time in six seasons VeeKay has opened the season with a top ten finish.

Santino Ferrucci ended St. Petersburg in 14th and he will start 14th for the Thermal Grand Prix. Ferrucci was 0.0023 seconds off advancing to the second round. Last year at Laguna Seca, Ferrucci was ninth, his first top ten finish in the state of California in seven career starts. His average finish in the Golden State is 16.2857.

Conor Daly ended up 15th on the grid, 0.1304 seconds on the wrong side of the cutline for the first qualifying group. This will be only the 14th time in Daly's 41 road/street course races since the start of the 2020 season where he is starting in the top fifteen.

Nolan Siegel fell 0.0405 seconds off advancing from the second group, and Siegel will start 16th for the Thermal Grand Prix. Siegel has an average finish of 20.2857 over this first seven starts on road/street courses. His average starting spot in those races is 20th. 

Josef Newgarden is the top Team Penske starter in 17th. This is the first time Team Penske did not make it out of the first round of qualifying since Portland 2021. Newgarden has finished third in the last two races and he has finished third in four of the last nine races. Prior to this nine-race stretch, he had finished third in only five of his first 207 starts.

Graham Rahal ended up 18th on the grid. This will be seventh consecutive Rahal has started outside the top ten. This is his longest stretch without a top ten start since a seven-race run over the final four races of 2022 and the first three events in 2023. Rahal will be making his 294th start this weekend, tying Ryan Hunter-Reay for 11th all-time.

Christian Rasmussen takes 19th on the grid. This is Rasmussen's first time starting in the top twenty after four consecutive starts of 23rd or worse. When starting inside the top twenty, Rasmussen has never finished better than his starting spot. Seven time, he has finished worse than his starting spot. Only once has Rasmussen matched his starting spot, and that was finishing 20th after starting 20th in last year's Grand Prix of Indianapolis.

Kyffin Simpson rounds out the top twenty on the grid. This will be Simpson's third consecutive top twenty start. It is the first time he has started inside the top twenty in this many consecutive races. Simpson has finished outside the top fifteen in seven of his last eight races.

Will Power will start 21st, his worst starting position since he started 22nd for the second Iowa race last year. Power was 26th at St. Petersburg. It was his worst finish in a season opener. His previous worst was 25th at Homestead in 2008. Dating back to last season, Power has finished outside the top twenty in two consecutive races, a first for Power since Iowa and Toronto in 2011. Power followed those two races up with victory in Edmonton nearly 14 years ago. The law time Power started 22nd, he won the race.

Callum Ilott has his Prema Chevrolet starting 22nd. In seven trips to California with IndyCar, this is the fifth time Ilott has started 20th or worse. In the other two he has stared 18th (Long Beach 2021) and second (Laguna Seca 2022). This will be Ilott's 40th career start. No driver has ever had a first career victory come in a 40th career start.

Jacob Abel starts his second IndyCar race two spot better than in his first IndyCar race. Abel takes 23rd on the grid. Abel was off the lead lap in the first race of the season, finishing 23rd at St. Petersburg. Since the first race of the season, Abel had a birthday. He turned 24 years old on March 9.

Sting Ray Robb occupies 24th position on the grid. This is the 36th time in 37 races Robb is starting outside the top twenty. This will be the ninth time he has started 24th in his career. His average finish from 24th starting spot is 17.375, but his only top ten finish came from 24th starting position. Robb went from 24th to ninth at Gateway last year.

Scott McLaughlin was the slowest qualifier in the first qualifying group and he will start 25th, his worst starting position since starting 26th in the 2022 Indianapolis 500. Dating back to last season, McLaughlin has three consecutive top five finishes. The only time McLaughlin has had at least four consecutive top five finishes was in 2022, starting with the second Iowa race and running through the Portland race.

Devlin DeFrancesco matches his career-worst starting position of 26th. It will be DeFrancesco's third time starting 26th in a race. Despite not starting a race in 2024, DeFrancesco has finished 22nd in his last two starts. He has finished outside the top fifteen in his last nine starts. Six of those finishes have been outside the top twenty.

Robert Shwartzman rounds out the grid in 27th position. Shwartzman did not complete a lap on track until qualifying. His weekend opened with a mechanical issue that caused a fire in the car and forced him to stop his car on the circuit before he could complete a lap in practice on Friday. The fire damage forced the team to repair the car through all of Saturday morning practice.

Fox's coverage of the Thermal Grand Prix begins at 3:00 p.m. ET with green flag scheduled for 3:17 p.m. The race is scheduled for 65 laps.

Track Walk: Thermal Club 2025

The second round of the 2025 NTT IndyCar Series brings the series back Thermal Club, just outside Palm Spring, California. Unlike last year, this race will not have an unusual format and nor will it be just for money. This year's trip to Thermal counts toward the championship. The 2025 season opened with a Chip Ganassi Racing 1-2 finish while Team Penske finished 3-4. Andretti Global took 5-6. St. Petersburg was the third time in the last six races Ganassi, Penske and Andretti swept at least the top five positions in a race. Dating back to last season, there have been six different winners in the last six races.

Coverage

Time: Coverage begins at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday March 23 with green flag scheduled for 3:17 p.m. ET.
Channel: Fox
Announcers: Will Buxton, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee and Jack Harvey will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule

Friday:

First Practice: 6:35 p.m. ET (75 minutes)

Saturday:

Second Practice: 1:05 p.m. ET (60 minutes)
Qualifying: 5:30 p.m. ET 
Sunday:
Warm-up: 11:02 a.m. ET (25 minutes)
Race: 3:17 p.m. ET (65 laps)

FS1 will have coverage of all practice and qualifying sessions. Fox will have race coverag.

This Time, It Counts!

IndyCar's first visit to the Thermal Club last year was for an exhibition race. The event split the field into two heats with the top six finishers advancing to the main event that paid $500,000 to the winner.

This time, instead of having only 12 drivers compete over 20 laps, this year's race will see a full grid of 27 cars attempt to run 65 laps, 199.355 miles, in a race that counts toward the championship. Adjustments have been made to the pit lane to allow a full race to take place. Fifty points are awaiting the winner with another handful of bonus points on offer. 

Last year's exhibition race winner was Álex Palou, and the three-time champion dominated all aspects of the day. Palou started on pole position and he led all ten laps in his heat race. The Catalan driver followed that up leading all 20 laps in the main event, winning by nearly six seconds over Scott McLaughlin. 

Felix Rosenqvist rounded out the podium in last year's Thermal race. Rosenqivst had started second. Colton Herta started last in the exhibition race, but after conserving his tires in the first half of the race, Herta was able to charge up to fourth. Herta also went from 11th to sixth in the heat race to earn himself the final transfer spot. Marcus Armstrong and Linus Lundqvist made it three Chip Ganassi Racing cars in the top six finishers.

Alexander Rossi also saved his tires, but he was not able to get up further than seventh, though his improvement of three positions was second-best only behind Herta's eight-spot gain. Josef Newgarden slid back from sixth starting position to eighth. Christian Lundgaard and Agustín Canapino rounded out the top ten. 

There were two non-finishers in the main event, and both were Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing drivers. Graham Rahal pulled out of the race before hitting the halfway point. Throttle issues ended Rahal's day. Pietro Fittipaldi was disqualified when it was found he did not have enough fuel in his car after regulations stated all cars must start on a full tank. 

With only 12 drivers in the main event, a great number of drivers did not run more than ten laps around the 3.067-mile circuit. For the first heat race, competitors only completed eight laps as that race was stopped due to a time limit.  

Nolan Siegel was seventh in the first heat, the first driver to miss out on the main event. Siegel was driving for Dale Coyne Racing on this day. Siegel's current Arrow McLaren teammate Patricio O'Ward was seventh in the second heat race. 

Neither Will Power nor Scott Dixon made it out of the first heat race. Dixon infamously made contact with Romain Grosjean on the opening lap that sent Grosjean into Rinus VeeKay, taking out both drivers before they could complete a lap. Marcus Ericsson was the most notable driver not to make it out of the second race.

Only five of the eventual championship top ten were in the Thermal main event last year. Four of the 12 drivers finished outside the top fifteen in the championship. 

Already On Top

The bad news for everyone after the opening race of the season is Álex Palou is already the championship leader. 

Despite starting eighth in St. Petersburg, Palou was able to capitalize on the tire strategy as well as the radio issues for his teammate Scott Dixon to pull out what felt like an unthinkable victory even halfway through the first race of the season. Instead of finishing third or fourth, Palou ended up first and scored 51 points. 

It was a good start after a weak end to 2024. The victory ended a two-race skid of finishes outside the top ten. Palou has now finished in the top five in six of the last eight races dating back to last season. In each of the previous two seasons, Palou has had 13 top five finishes. 

The last thing Palou needed was a head start. 

Last season, Palou was never lower than third in the championship. He was third after the first three races. He took the championship lead after he won the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and dropped to second after finishing 16th in Detroit. He had to stop on track when Josef Newgarden spun in front of him in the hairpin. Palou was out of the championship lead for all of two races. He was back on top after his second victory of the season at Laguna Seca. He never looked back as he led the championship over the final ten races to claim his third Astor Cup.

Palou has led the championship after 25 of the last 30 races. He has led the championship after 37 of 68 races with Chip Ganassi Racing. He has been ranked in the top three of the championship after 56 of those 68 races.

The closest rivals are familiar faces. Scott Dixon was second at St. Petersburg, his fifth time finishing on the podium in the last seven season openers. St. Petersburg was the 23rd time Chip Ganassi Racing has had a 1-2 finish, the team's first since Mid-Ohio 2023. Josef Newgarden was third, his first podium finish on a street course since he won at Long Beach in 2022. Scott McLaughlin led 40 laps from pole position at St. Petersburg, but McLaughlin lost too much time when on the alternate tires in the middle of the race, dropping the New Zealander down to fourth.

This is the second time Palou has won the season opener. In 2021, he won the first race of the year from Barber Motorsports Park, his first race with Chip Ganassi Racing, and he ended that season with his first championship. He has finished on the podium in the season opener in three of the last five seasons. He has never finished worse than eighth in the opening race while driving for Ganassi.

Palou will be attempting to become the 12th driver since 1946 to open the season with consecutive victories. The most recent driver to open a season with consecutive victories was his teammate, Scott Dixon in 2020.

Eight of the 11 drivers to open the season with consecutive victories have gone on to win the championship. That includes Scott Dixon in 2020, who won the first three races and went wire-to-wire leading the championship.

Second Time is the Charm

Sixteen races remain in the 2025 IndyCar season. There is more road ahead than is behind, but there are some drivers who are not happy with how the opening race went. One bad race isn't the end of the world, but no driver wants two poor results to open a season. Drivers will want to correct course quickly if they hope to have a respectable season. 

Eleventh isn't a bad result for the opening race, but Patricio O'Ward was likely hoping to finish better than that in St. Petersburg. It didn't help that O'Ward started 23rd and had to overcome a four-stop strategy to finish on the cusp of the top ten in the first race of 2025. O'Ward may have won recently, but dating back to last season, he has been in a slump. It has been feast or famine for the Mexican driver. He has finished outside the top ten in five of the last seven races with three of those results being outside the top fifteen. 

For a moment during the St. Petersburg race, Colton Herta looked to be the de facto leader. Of the drivers that started on the alternate tire and stopped on lap two of the race, Herta was ahead of all of them on the first restart, and Herta even got ahead of Callum Ilott, putting a buffer between him and the rest of those on his strategy. It went wrong when Herta had a botched pit stop where the crew was unable to get the tires on cleanly and the team did not get the car full of fuel. This dropped Herta to 16th in the final result. Last season, Herta had four finishes outside the top ten as he finished second in the championship, 31 points off Álex Palou.

Marcus Armstrong qualified on the second row and spent much of the opening stint running in the top three. Through the pit cycle, Armstrong led three laps. It was a promising day even if the New Zealander was running the alternate tire in the middle of the race. Unfortunately, left front suspension issues ended his race after 46 laps. It is the third time in the last four races Armstrong has finished outside the top twenty. To make matters worse, every time he has started in the top five he has finished outside the top twenty. At St. Petersburg, his Meyer Shank Racing teammate Felix Rosenqvist finished seventh and Armstrong spent much of the opening stint running right behind Rosenqvist. 

The opening lap at St. Petersburg saw three drivers sidelined before they could even complete four corners. Will Power spun Nolan Siegel in turn three and Louis Foster was caught as collateral damage. All three drivers head to Thermal with zero laps completed this season. For two of those drivers, this was not the start they wanted as they try to establish themselves as series regulars. For the other, it was a significant blow to a championship push that coincides with a contract season.

For Power, it was the second time in his career he failed to complete a lap in a race. The other was Toronto 2017. Siegel was classified in 25th, matching his career worst result. He was 25th in the second Milwaukee race last year after a gearbox issue after 24 laps. Foster became the third driver since the start of the 2023 season to not complete a lap in a debut race. Benjamin Pedersen was also caught in an opening lap accident at St. Petersburg and finished 27th in 2023. Tom Blomqvist did not complete a lap on his debut at Toronto in 2023.

The bad news for these six drivers and the other 11 that finished outside the top ten at St. Petersburg is nine consecutive champions had a top ten finish in the first race of the season. Only once since reunification has the champion started the season a with a result outside the top ten. That was Scott Dixon in 2015 when he opened with a 15th-place finish at St. Petersburg. The most recent champion to open a season with a finish outside the top fifteen was Greg Ray, who finished 22nd in the 1999 Indy Racing League opener from Walt Disney World Speedway before he won his only championship.

Inexperience in the Desert

IndyCar might have been at Thermal Club last year, but there are a fair number of drivers who are making their first start at the three-mile facility in Southern California.

Among those drivers in the championship, David Malukas is best positioned after the opening race of the Thermal debutants. Malukas missed last year's race with a wrist injury when he was supposed to be racing with Arrow McLaren. In his first race with A.J. Foyt Racing, Malukas was 13th, best of the two Foyt races. Santino Ferrucci was directly behind Malukas in 14th. 

Neither A.J. Foyt Racing car made the main event last year at Thermal. Ferrucci was eighth in the first heat and Sting Ray Robb was 11th in that same race.

Conor Daly has raced at a number of circuits in his IndyCar career, but he was not in an entry in last year's Thermal exhibition race. On natural-terrain road courses, Daly has not finished in the top ten since he was fifth in the 2022 Grand Prix of Indianapolis. He has not had a top ten finish west of the Mississippi since he was eighth in the first race of the 2020 Iowa doubleheader. His only top ten finish on a road or street course west of the Mississippi was tenth in the 2017 season finale from Sonoma. 

Though Juncos Hollinger Racing's first trip to Thermal will largely be remembered for Grosjean's accident and his reaction afterward, JHR did have a car in the final race. Agustín Canapino was tenth. He had finished fifth in the first heat race after starting eighth.

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing had the most participants in last year's Thermal main event as all three cars made it. The problem is none of those cars finished better than ninth, and now 2/3rds of the RLLR lineup has never raced at Thermal before. Devlin DeFrancesco was a surprise second round qualifier in St. Petersburg, but he dropped to 22nd, one-lap down in the race. Though Foster's debut did not go as planned, he did qualify 16th, the second-best RLLR starter at St. Petersburg, two spots behind DeFrancesco. 

Along with Foster, the other two rookies will also be new to Thermal Club. Robert Shwartzman was 20th on debut in St. Petersburg. Shwartzman was a spot behind Prema teammate Callum Ilott. Ilott will bring some Thermal knowledge into this race for IndyCar's newest team. The Briton raced with Arrow McLaren last year in place of Malukas. Ilott was ninth in the second heat race and did not advance to the main event. Both Prema cars did test at Thermal Club in January.

Jacob Abel is the sixth driver who will be new to Thermal Club. Abel's IndyCar debut was better than Foster's, but not quite as good as Shwartzman's. Struggling with pace the entire weekend, Abel was one-lap down in 23rd, two spots better than where he started, but only ahead of the four drivers that retired from the first race of the season. 

Dale Coyne Racing had Colin Braun in its #51 Honda last year at this event. Braun started 12th in the second heat and finished 13th out of 13 cars.

Fast Facts

This will be the fifth IndyCar race on March 23, and the first since 2003 when CART and the Indy Racing League both raced on this date. 

Twenty-two years ago, Paul Tracy won the CART race at Monterrey, his second consecutive victory to open the season. 

Twenty-two years ago, Tony Kanaan won the IRL race at Phoenix, his second career victory and leading a Brazilian sweep of the podium ahead of Hélio Castroneves and Felipe Giaffone. Kanaan's victory was the first for the Andretti Green Racing organization.

Thermal Club becomes the first new natural-terrain road course to host an IndyCar championship race since Circuit of the Americas in Austin in 2019.

The last two natural-terrain road courses to join the IndyCar calendar did not host a second championships race. IndyCar made one visit to Austin in 2019 before the pandemic cancelled the 2020 round. The next most recent circuit was NOLA Motorsports Park, which hosted its only IndyCar race in 2015 before financial issues shuttered any attempt of a second race in 2016.

Since reunification, the eventual champion has won the second race of the season only twice in 17 seasons (Dario Franchitti in 2009 at Long Beach and Scott Dixon in 2020 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course).

Chevrolet won four of six natural-terrain road course races in 2024. 

The only Honda driver to win on a natural-terrain road course last year was Álex Palou (IMS road course and Laguna Seca).

Chip Ganassi Racing is responsible for Honda's last nine victories on natural-terrain road courses. The last Honda natural-terrain road course victory that was not a Ganassi driver was Andretti Autosport's Alexander Rossi in the July 2022 round on the IMS road course.

Honda has won the last five races held in California.

Team Penske has won ten pole positions since Will Power's most recent pole position (second race of the 2023 Iowa doubleheader).

Will Power has not started on pole position for a road/street course race since the 2022 season finale at Laguna Seca.

The pole-sitter has not won in the last six races, the longest streak without a pole-sitter winning since the final seven races of the 2023 season.

IndyCar has not had a first-time winner in the last 25 races. This is IndyCar's longest stretch without a first-time winner since the 45 races between Alexander Rossi's first victory in the 2016 Indianapolis 500 and Colton Herta's first victory at Austin in 2019. Herta's victory was in the second race of the 2019 season.

This year's Thermal Club race falls on the eve of the six-year anniversary of Herta's first career victory at Austin.

Since the start of the 2020 season, and the introduction of the aeroscreen, the average starting position for an IndyCar race winner is 5.5609 with a median of third.

Since the start of the 2020 season, and the introduction of the aeroscreen, the average number of lead changes in an IndyCar race is 9.8048 with a median of eight.

Since the start of the 2020 season, and the introduction of the aeroscreen, the average number of cautions in an IndyCar race is 3.1707 with a median of 2.5. The average number of caution laps is 18.0121 with a median of 12.5.

Predictions

Álex Palou picks up where he left off last year and he will have two victories from two races. Palou will win from pole position and lead over 50 laps. Colton Herta has a podium finish. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing will have no more than one car finish in the top 12. Juncos Hollinger Racing will have both cars complete the opening lap. Every car will complete the opening lap. At least one top five finisher will start outside the top fifteen. There will be more than 150 total passes. Dale Coyne Racing has one car finish at least six spots better than where it started. Prema will have a car start and finish inside the top fifteen. Sleeper: Christian Lundgaard.