Musings From the Weekend: Wandering the Desert

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

It is 2025, and a Brabham (Matt) and an Andretti (Adam) finished 1-2 at Road Atlanta (Trans-Am). Ferrari suffered a devastating blow post-race in Shanghai, a double disqualification. There was another unfulfilled finish in the NASCAR world. There were another two pretty good races in Homestead, however. Supercross came back with a Triple Crown weekend. Álex Palou brought Zak Brown's worst nightmare to life, as Palou passed two McLaren cars and drove off to win by over ten seconds at Thermal Club, which hosted its first IndyCar championship race, a notable occasion for many reasons.

Wandering the Desert

Palm Springs, California is much different than St. Petersburg, Florida. 

Trading in the blue bay and breeze for the yellow sands and mountainous backdrop, IndyCar experiences a swift shift in the surroundings. At least it is still warm. 

Possible more notable than going from a street circuit with an airport runway for a main straightaway to a country club racetrack is what is missing.

The people. 

After starting the season with a festival atmosphere that attracts attendees from all over, some hoping to escape the final weeks of winter to the locals who are happy to have the race back in town, IndyCar experiences a sharp juxtaposition at Thermal Club. 

There is nobody there. 

We say that about a lot of races. There are obviously some people there, but at St. Petersburg you know people are there. There are the yachts and grandstands in multiple corners. People watch from balconies surrounding the circuit, taking advantage of a fortunate apartment or hotel location. You can see people walking around the grounds as the cars are on track. You rarely see a soul at Thermal Club. 

It doesn't help that ticket sales were limited to 5,000. Around a three-mile circuit, there is no way 5,000 people will ever look like a crowd even if they are all crammed into one grandstand on the outside of the circuit. That is 5,000 people for race day. It is far less on Friday and Saturday when there is no other competition on track. There wasn't a Road to Indy Series or SRO America series to fill the bill. Thermal is an IndyCar-only weekend. When IndyCar goes quiet, the circuit goes quiet. There is nothing keeping people around.

For the members who have a home at the circuit, no problem. They can go inside and turn on the television or take a nap. I cannot imagine why anyone would stick around as public spectator. 

They are entirely different weekends, but in the second weekend with a new television broadcaster that is trying to sell IndyCar and give people a reason to be excited about it, racing at a place where there is no excitement is not going to convince viewers to continue watching. 

It doesn't help when the broadcast goes out for 20 minutes and NASCAR is the emergency filler programming. It does not appear the facility had anything to do with the broadcast issues, but it happened at Thermal Club, a venue that has next to zero supporters in the fanbase. The opposition didn't need any more ammunition against this event.

I wrote last year that there are not many places lining up to host IndyCar. Thermal Club was willing to spend $2 million for the sanctioning fee. IndyCar went to a willing partner, but it is a partner that arguably does not care about the greater good of IndyCar. It is a place that cannot accommodate that many spectators to begin with. It isn't looking to provide a larger gathering. The race exists for the club and is a gift to the members. 

The 5,000 tickets on sale are to recoup the loss. Do the math. At a $475.75 for general admission, 5,000 tickets will rake in $2,378,750. If the total allotment is sold, Thermal Club breaks even. It is the only way the club is willing to make money. There was no sponsorship around the circuit. No billboards in the background. No wrap around the tire barriers. The race didn't have a title sponsorship. Those are all ways the circuit could raise revenue and cover the cost, which would allow tickets to be more affordable, but sponsors and billboards are not the aesthetic of a club. No one wants to see faded Firestone signage when they step out onto their patio on a Saturday morning in September. They don't want any reminders an IndyCar race was held there. 

Long-term viability of this race comes down to how long the members want to pay for it. If they can sell all the tickets, then the race will pay for itself with non-members money, and Thermal Club will continue to host it. If they can get 5,000 non-members, some would call them "suckers," to pay for their party, they are going to keep holding it, but even if they only sell half or a quarter, are they willing to eat a $1,000,000 loss every year to have something special? Other tracks have a bottom line to meet. They cannot afford lose money on an event year after year. Thermal can make money in a number of other ways, and it constantly has people paying membership fees. It is a group that can stomach a loss.

IndyCar has a decision to make. It isn't going to say no to someone paying a full sanctioning fee to host an event, but is this boosting IndyCar in a notable way? We were told ahead of last year's race Thermal is about attracting big fish. People with multi-million dollar bank accounts who run large companies and can turn into a sponsor, whether that is of a race team or the series itself. That's nice. These teams need someone to foot the increasing budgets to compete in the series, but IndyCar also need to reach more people. 

The series needs quality AND quantity. It needs the rich man with money to burn but it also needs the common man who is looking for a new hobby that can turn into a passion. At best, 5,000 people are attending Thermal Club, a race in Southern California three weeks before another race in Southern California, and one that is hailed as one of IndyCar's biggest races in Long Beach. 

Are those 5,000 people more valuable than 25,000 people at Pocono or Loudon or Richmond? What about 50,000 people over an entire weekend at Watkins Glen or maybe Virginia International Raceway? One part of the country is barren of IndyCar's presence and yet IndyCar is wondering why its reach is lacking. Southern California already had a race and didn't need another. The excess is waste. The potential for growth is stunted with such an event at a time when the series must look to spread beyond the shell it has bunkered into since the pandemic started five years ago. If IndyCar was in every corner of the country, or at least in the major areas, and it had 20 or 22 races, then perhaps there is a place for Thermal to host this race, but that is not the case.

After pumping up IndyCar in St. Petersburg and creating a scene, IndyCar retreated into isolation. It brought the race to the people and then ran to the middle of nowhere. It went from a party for all to a party where you aren't invited and they aren't going to make it easy for you to get through the door. Such a contrast can only leave people asking, "What is IndyCar and is it for me?" After a second trip to the desert, a weekend where the lack of atmosphere screamed louder than the race cars, hopefully the series is asking itself the same question. 

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Álex Palou, but did you know...

Oscar Piastri won the Chinese Grand Prix. Lewis Hamilton won the sprint race.

Kyle Larson won the NASCAR Cup race from Homestead, his 30th career victory, the 30th driver to reach that milestone. Justin Allgaier won the Grand National Series race, his second consecutive victory. Kyle Larson also won the Truck race, his fourth career victory in the series.

Elfyn Evans won the Safari Rally Kenya, his second consecutive victory.

Chase Sexton won the Supercross Triple Crown round from Birmingham after winning the first two races and finishing second in the third. Cooper Webb won the final race. Nate Thrasher won the 250cc round after finishes of third, third and second. R.J. Hampshire (race one) and Seth Hammaker (races two and three) split the three races.

Coming Up This Weekend

MotoGP comes to the United States for a round in Austin.

NASCAR will be in Martinsville.

World Superbike has its first race in Europe with a visit to Portimão.

Supercross strolls into Seattle.

First Impressions: Thermal Club 2025

1. Álex Palou is the best IndyCar has at the moment, and it helps that he is paired with the best team. This race was more than Palou having a new set of alternate tires for the final stint of the race. This was a complete race, 65 laps run caution-free, and it required a rounded strategy with a rounded drive. 

Patricio O'Ward dominated this race over the first 50 laps. This was shades of Texas 2023 where O'Ward had nearly lapped the entire field through the first two-thirds of the race. O'Ward started on a new set of alternate tires and he was gone. No one was close while the rest of the field was left fighting with themselves, but this was a full race. 

Palou held ground in third behind Christian Lundgaard. It didn't matter that he was losing a little time on the primary tire. If anything, the middle two stints were a warning. Palou wasn't sluggish on the primary tire. He was comfortable. When it came time to the final stint, Palou could let it rip.

After the final round of pit stops, Palou was over ten seconds behind O'Ward with 16 laps remaining, and proceeded to rundown the Mexican driver and was leading with nine laps remaining. The tires were the deciding factor, but only because they were underneath Palou. If you put any of the other 26 drivers on the grid in Palou's situation with 16 laps to go, maybe two or three others could have won this race, and that is generous to say two or three. 

Palou went from ten seconds back to ten seconds up at the checkered flag. That is brilliance at the highest level. Barry Wanser deserves recognition for how this race was called and Palou has the talent to make such a strategy work. For the first time since 2020, a driver has opened a season with consecutive victories. The batting average of those drivers turning two wins on the spin into championships is ridiculously high. It is only March, spring a few days old, but get the stencil out now and prepare the Astor Cup accordingly.

1B. There are some rumors about a new Formula One team being interested in an IndyCar driver. The only reasonable option is Álex Palou. Hiring any other driver would be foolish.

2. Hindsight is 20/20, but O'Ward only using one set of alternate tires might have been the deciding factor. The alternate tire was the better tire today, even when worn. O'Ward went with three new sets of primary tires over the final three stints. Would have using one used set of alternate tire to been enough to hold off Palou after the final stop? I think there is a good chance it would have been. 

Palou started on used alternate tires and O'Ward drove away but when you consider O'Ward had over a ten-second gap after that final pit stop, I don't know if Palou could have made that up if O'Ward used the alternates. It would have been close, but one set of used alternate tires could have been the difference.

3. This was Zak Brown's nightmare. After McLaren went 1-2 in the Chinese Grand Prix with Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris, halfway through this race it looked like Arrow McLaren was set for a 1-2 at Thermal Club. It looked like a victory was a guarantee even if it wasn't a sweep of the top two spots. Suddenly, Álex Palou, a man the McLaren organization has sued for about $23 million to recoup investments, spoiled the whole damn party. Somewhere in Shanghai, an American is having a sour Monday morning. 

4. Christian Lundgaard did round out the podium for McLaren. A 2-3 day isn't quite a 1-3 or a 1-2. Same number of trophies are brought home; total square inches much less than anticipated. But Lundgaard had a phenomenal weekend. 

Both McLarens ended on primary tires. Lundgaard went used alternate to new alternates in the first two stints. That kind of made his bed. With this being a three-stop race, it isn't even hindsight that was saying end on the alternates. Ten of the top 12 finishers finished on the alternates. The only two that didn't were the McLarens. 

Through two race weekends, the Dane has matched O'Ward, and McLaren finally has a 1-2 combo that can do some damage in IndyCar. We are going to see more stout days for Lundgaard this season.

5. Rounding out the top five were Colton Herta and Felix Rosenqvist. As much as we can say the alternates were the right choice, it wasn't clear as day. Herta ended on new alternates while Rosenqvist used alternates on his final three stint, the last two were used. In the closing laps, Rosenqvist was closing on Herta. Herta held on by 0.5575 seconds to finish fourth. 

Kyle Kirkwood spent much of this race in fourth. Kirkwood ended on used alternates and he stopped on the same lap, lap 48, as Rosenqvist for that final set. Rosenqvist ended up fifth and pushing for forth. Kirkwood dropped to eighth and spent the final half-dozen laps running laps in the one-minute and 50-second range. 

Some teams had the balance to get the most of the alternates for an entire stint. Others clearly struggled at the very end.

Credit to Herta and Rosenqvist for making it work. Both likely want more than fourth and fifth because while in the top five, neither were in the picture for victory. There is plenty of ground to make up. 

6. It was a caution-free race and Will Power went from 21st to sixth. The one blessing in disguise to not advancing from the first round of qualifying is the extra set of new alternate tires. Power's final three stints were new alternates, used alternates and new alternates. He was making hay over the entire race but especially in the final 20 laps. Power still has it and the strategy was maximizing the tires at this team's disposal.

7. Marcus Armstrong needed to finish seventh today. If he doesn't have the suspension issue at St. Petersburg, Armstrong would have finished in the top ten. Meyer Shank Racing showed good speed again and Armstrong had to convert it into something. Starting and finishing seventh is all you can ask for. He didn't stand out today, but sometimes you just need to get a result on the board. Armstrong did that.

8. No one suffered more at the end of a stint on alternate tires than Kyle Kirkwood in the run to the checkered flag. It was kind of stunning seeing how off he was in those closing laps. We didn't see many others struggle that much late on used alternate tires. It really looked like alternate tires that were 18-20 laps old were still slightly better than primary tires at the same age or at least on level footing. I don't know if there was a greater problem. Eighth is not an accurate representation of Kirkwood's day.

9. I am not sure ninth is an accurate representation of Alexander Rossi's day either. He also struggled late on the alternate tire. The good thing is Ed Carpenter Racing produced a race car that could run in the top ten all day on a road course, and Rossi looked comfortable all day. Until the very end, but still, Rossi wasn't dropping back mid-race and then trying to claw spots back. They are close but still have some work to do.

10. Scott Dixon went from 11th to tenth, but he did more than that because Dixon started on the primary tire and dropped to like 18th or 19th in the opening stint. He ended with three consecutive stints on the alternate tire, but only the final stint was on a new set. That led to the charge into the top ten. It salvaged a day more than anything else.

11. If it wasn't for Palou's final stint and Will Power going from 21st to sixth, Graham Rahal would have a strong case for drive of the day. He went 18th to 11th, but he was running better than that as his middle two stints were on new alternate tires. He ended on a used set and that might have cost him a top ten. Rahal was about 4.5 seconds slower than Dixon on the final lap of the race. If Rahal runs the used alternates a stint early, you could argue he would have been in the same spot, but I think the argument should be to end on the best tires you got. That seems more advantageous than ending on a used set.

12. To bolster Ed Carpenter Racing's confidence, Christian Rasmussen was 12th, and he ended on a set of new alternate tires. Other than the final stint and making up some ground, Rasmussen wasn't all that present in this race, but he ended on a good impression.

13. I don't know what Josef Newgarden was doing using two sets of new alternates mid-race and then finishing on new primary tires. My only guess is Newgarden didn't have faith in used alternates, and that might have been a good choice as he was still running below a minute and 50 seconds in the closing laps. It felt like Newgarden hit 12th and then couldn't run better than that. 

14. For a driver that lost his hybrid early, 14th for Santino Ferrucci is an outstanding day. When that was announced, Ferrucci was running just outside the top ten, and we had just gotten pass the first pit stop. It felt like he was in for a long day. This might not have been the best possible outcome, but it felt like it was going to be much worse than this.

15. As for everyone outside the top 14, I don't know if there is much to say about any of them.

Kyffin Simpson kept it on the track and finished 15th, we didn't see Conor Daly once as he finished 16th, Rinus VeeKay didn't have a good second stint on the primary tire and he lost ground to 17th. 

David Malukas and Nolan Siegel feel like missed opportunities. Malukas started inside the top 12, started on new alternate tires and then blew it on primary tires on the second stint. He ended on primary tires as well in 18th position.

Siegel was trapped behind Ferrucci during the second stint when Ferrucci was on primary tires with no hybrid system and Siegel had new alternates. Siegel could not make a move and others pounced on him. And then he made this a four-stop race as he only did ten laps on used alternates before primary tires for 14 laps and then one more run on used alternates. His strategy was garbage, and it led to a 19th-place result. That seems likes a team that got stuck and couldn't stop making mistakes.

16. Devlin DeFrancesco spun Scott McLaughlin before we even got to the green flag. DeFrancesco had a penalty, though I think 20th was the best he was going to do regardless. 

Marcus Ericsson lost spots running wide on the opening lap and then spun after his first pit stop, losing more ground. Two stints on primary tires, one of which was used, in the middle of the race did not help Ericsson's cause. Twenty-first is a brutal result.

17. I am going to cover both Prema cars here. Robert Shwartzman had a slow first pit stop. Shwartzman started well, but I think the team played it too conservative with two stints on new primary tires in the middle of the race. The team only ran qualifying and the warm-up. It didn't have the data to trust if it could do three stints on the alternates. For a team in its second race with nothing to lose, it should have just bit the bullet. 

Callum Ilott ran into the back of someone at the start and had to stop for a front wing change after lap one. It cost him a lap early and it was a 22-26 day for Prema.

18. Sting Ray Robb was out there and finished 23rd. If you forgot about him, you were not alone. 

I don't know what happened to Louis Foster that led him to finish 24th after starting tenth. There might be a reason for that. We will get to it in a moment. 

Jacob Abel. Two starts, two races finishing off the lead lap, and a drive-through penalty after his first stop did not help.

19. Oh, Scott McLaughlin. Started 25th only to be spun before the green flag and then the hybrid overheating was a crushing outing at Thermal. This is the second consecutive year McLaughlin has finished last in the second race of the season. Last year, he recovered and had a brilliant season. I bet he wasn't hoping not to have to repeat last season.

20. Thermal produced a good race, and last year showed the potential. With how quick tires wore down, a full race with a full field of cars and not 12-14 cars sets itself up for stellar race. Palou and Lundgaard traded passes for five consecutive corners. Palou erased a ten-second gap in no time. There were battles throughout the field. This wasn't a processional race by any means. It got strung out at the front at times, but this being a caution-free race with the variety of tire strategy made it exciting. 

This was no different than a race we have seen at Road America or Mid-Ohio or Laguna Seca. I don't know if the alternate/primary balance was too much in favor of the alternate, but Firestone will figure it out. Either way, we saw a race where teams had to really choose what tire to use. This was a three-stop race for everyone. Perhaps a little better primary tire opens up the pit windows. It was three stops but everyone could only make it 18 to 20 laps. I don't know if IndyCar wants it so a car can do 22 laps comfortably and make this a two-stop vs. three-stop race, but it would add another dimension that would not hurt.

21. I feel like I missed a lot of this race, and we all did because the broadcast went down for 20 minutes. It is unclear if it was just the television compound or the entire Thermal Club facility. Reports on the ground was the media center was fine throughout the 20-minute period. Timing and scoring did stay up. 

Things happen. If you recall NBC's first race on network television at St. Petersburg in 2019, part of that race experienced some technical issues. As technologically advanced as we have become, teething issues persist. They have been a little more noticeable over the first two races than anyone would like, and there is no way to spin losing a race broadcast for 20 minutes into a positive. The only positive is it was 20 minutes in the middle of the race and to the final 20 minutes. 

22. We have three more weeks to iron things out until Long Beach.

Morning Warm-Up: Thermal Club 2025

Patricio O'Ward snatched his sixth career pole position with a lap of 99.9567 seconds around the Thermal Club circuit, and O'Ward will lead an all-Arrow McLaren front row to the green flag for the Thermal Grand Prix. Christian Lundgaard took second spot ending up 0.1678 seconds off his teammate. For O'Ward, it is his first pole position since Mid-Ohio 2022, 43 races ago. In four of his five pole position starts, the Mexican driver has finished in the top five. He has finished second, third, fourth and fifth from the first starting spot. O'Ward's other finish was 24th after a fuel pressure issue in that 2022 Mid-Ohio race. While O'Ward won at Mid-Ohio last season, his average finish on natural-terrain road courses was 11.333 and his next best result was eighth.

Christian Lundgaard ending up second makes this Arrow McLaren's first front row lockout ever in IndyCar, whether dating back to this organization's origins as FAZZT Race Team or McLaren's first foray into American open-wheel racing in the 1970s. This will be the fifth time Lundgaard has started on the front row in his career. The Dane has finished in the top five every time he has started on the front row in his career. Lundgaard has never finished better than 19th in the second race of the season.

Álex Palou was 0.3525 seconds off O'Ward, and Palou will start third. Palou is attempting to become the first driver to win consecutive races to open a season since his Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Scott Dixon did it in 2020. The earliest Palou has won two races in a season is seven rounds, which he did in 2023. Palou's 12 victories for Ganassi is the fourth-most in team history behind Dixon (57), Alex Zanardi (15) and Dario Franchitti (13).

Colton Herta is on the outside of the second row. The California-native was 0.4411 seconds off pole position. Herta has never opened a season with consecutive finishes outside the top ten. He was 16th at St. Petersburg three weeks ago. Herta had top ten finishes in all six races held on natural-terrain road courses last season. He has finished in the top five in eight of his last 11 starts.

Marcus Ericsson makes it two Andretti Global cars starting inside the top five with Ericsson 0.7868 off O'Ward's top time. Ericsson was sixth in the season opener. Every time he has finished in the top ten in the first race of the season, Ericsson has finished in the top ten of the second race of the season as well. Last year, Ericsson started fifth in two races, and he finished fifth in both of those races as well.

Alexander Rossi takes sixth on the grid in what was Ed Carpenter Racing's first appearance in the final round of qualifying since the 2022 Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Rossi had one appearance in the final round of qualifying last season. That was at Laguna Seca. Rossi was tenth at St. Petersburg. In his first nine seasons, Rossi has opened the season with consecutive top ten finishes only three times, including last year.

Marcus Armstrong missed out on the final round of qualifying by 0.0728 seconds. This is the fifth time Armstrong in starting in the top ten in his last seven starts. While Armstrong had two top five finishes and three top ten finishes on natural-terrain road courses last season, he finished 17th or worse in the other three natural-terrain road course events.

Kyle Kirkwood takes eighth on the grid after falling 0.121 seconds shy of advancing from the second round. Kirkwood has finished in the top five of his last two starts. The only time he has had three consecutive top five finishes was last season over the Detroit, Road America and Laguna Seca rounds. He won from eighth at Nashville in 2023, the only other time Kirkwood has started eighth in his career.

Meyer Shank Racing has its two cars starting nose-to-tail with Felix Rosenqvist in ninth. Entering this weekend Rosenqvist had started on pole position for the second race of the season for three consecutive years. His average finish in those three races was 18.667. This is the eighth time Rosenqvist has started ninth in his career. The last two times he has started ninth, he has finished 27th, and he has failed to finish four of the first seven races where he has started ninth.

In his second career start, Louis Foster has his first career top ten start in IndyCar. The Briton will take tenth on the grid. Foster was classified in last place at the season opener. The most recent driver to finish last in the first race of the season and then win a race later that year was Josef Newgarden in 2016. An IndyCar race has not been won from tenth starting position since the second Belle Isle race in 2018, 108 races ago, which Ryan Hunter-Reay won.

Scott Dixon starts 11th, the tenth time in the last 19 races Dixon has started outside the top ten. For five consecutive seasons, Dixon has finished in the top five of the second race of the season. In three of those races, he has finished fifth. In the other two he has won, including last year at Long Beach. However, Dixon started inside the top eight in all five of those races.

David Malukas was the slowest qualifier in the second round of qualifying, and Malukas slots into 12th on the grid. This is the fourth time in his last five road/street course races Malukas has made it to the second round of qualifying. In five starts in the state of California, Malukas' best finish is 13th and he has a career average finish of 18th.

Rinus VeeKay missed out of the second round of qualifying by 0.0838 seconds, and the Dutchman will start 13th. VeeKay ended an 18-race top ten drought for Dale Coyne Racing with his ninth-place finish in the St. Petersburg season opener. It was the fourth time in six seasons VeeKay has opened the season with a top ten finish.

Santino Ferrucci ended St. Petersburg in 14th and he will start 14th for the Thermal Grand Prix. Ferrucci was 0.0023 seconds off advancing to the second round. Last year at Laguna Seca, Ferrucci was ninth, his first top ten finish in the state of California in seven career starts. His average finish in the Golden State is 16.2857.

Conor Daly ended up 15th on the grid, 0.1304 seconds on the wrong side of the cutline for the first qualifying group. This will be only the 14th time in Daly's 41 road/street course races since the start of the 2020 season where he is starting in the top fifteen.

Nolan Siegel fell 0.0405 seconds off advancing from the second group, and Siegel will start 16th for the Thermal Grand Prix. Siegel has an average finish of 20.2857 over this first seven starts on road/street courses. His average starting spot in those races is 20th. 

Josef Newgarden is the top Team Penske starter in 17th. This is the first time Team Penske did not make it out of the first round of qualifying since Portland 2021. Newgarden has finished third in the last two races and he has finished third in four of the last nine races. Prior to this nine-race stretch, he had finished third in only five of his first 207 starts.

Graham Rahal ended up 18th on the grid. This will be seventh consecutive Rahal has started outside the top ten. This is his longest stretch without a top ten start since a seven-race run over the final four races of 2022 and the first three events in 2023. Rahal will be making his 294th start this weekend, tying Ryan Hunter-Reay for 11th all-time.

Christian Rasmussen takes 19th on the grid. This is Rasmussen's first time starting in the top twenty after four consecutive starts of 23rd or worse. When starting inside the top twenty, Rasmussen has never finished better than his starting spot. Seven time, he has finished worse than his starting spot. Only once has Rasmussen matched his starting spot, and that was finishing 20th after starting 20th in last year's Grand Prix of Indianapolis.

Kyffin Simpson rounds out the top twenty on the grid. This will be Simpson's third consecutive top twenty start. It is the first time he has started inside the top twenty in this many consecutive races. Simpson has finished outside the top fifteen in seven of his last eight races.

Will Power will start 21st, his worst starting position since he started 22nd for the second Iowa race last year. Power was 26th at St. Petersburg. It was his worst finish in a season opener. His previous worst was 25th at Homestead in 2008. Dating back to last season, Power has finished outside the top twenty in two consecutive races, a first for Power since Iowa and Toronto in 2011. Power followed those two races up with victory in Edmonton nearly 14 years ago. The law time Power started 22nd, he won the race.

Callum Ilott has his Prema Chevrolet starting 22nd. In seven trips to California with IndyCar, this is the fifth time Ilott has started 20th or worse. In the other two he has stared 18th (Long Beach 2021) and second (Laguna Seca 2022). This will be Ilott's 40th career start. No driver has ever had a first career victory come in a 40th career start.

Jacob Abel starts his second IndyCar race two spot better than in his first IndyCar race. Abel takes 23rd on the grid. Abel was off the lead lap in the first race of the season, finishing 23rd at St. Petersburg. Since the first race of the season, Abel had a birthday. He turned 24 years old on March 9.

Sting Ray Robb occupies 24th position on the grid. This is the 36th time in 37 races Robb is starting outside the top twenty. This will be the ninth time he has started 24th in his career. His average finish from 24th starting spot is 17.375, but his only top ten finish came from 24th starting position. Robb went from 24th to ninth at Gateway last year.

Scott McLaughlin was the slowest qualifier in the first qualifying group and he will start 25th, his worst starting position since starting 26th in the 2022 Indianapolis 500. Dating back to last season, McLaughlin has three consecutive top five finishes. The only time McLaughlin has had at least four consecutive top five finishes was in 2022, starting with the second Iowa race and running through the Portland race.

Devlin DeFrancesco matches his career-worst starting position of 26th. It will be DeFrancesco's third time starting 26th in a race. Despite not starting a race in 2024, DeFrancesco has finished 22nd in his last two starts. He has finished outside the top fifteen in his last nine starts. Six of those finishes have been outside the top twenty.

Robert Shwartzman rounds out the grid in 27th position. Shwartzman did not complete a lap on track until qualifying. His weekend opened with a mechanical issue that caused a fire in the car and forced him to stop his car on the circuit before he could complete a lap in practice on Friday. The fire damage forced the team to repair the car through all of Saturday morning practice.

Fox's coverage of the Thermal Grand Prix begins at 3:00 p.m. ET with green flag scheduled for 3:17 p.m. The race is scheduled for 65 laps.

Track Walk: Thermal Club 2025

The second round of the 2025 NTT IndyCar Series brings the series back Thermal Club, just outside Palm Spring, California. Unlike last year, this race will not have an unusual format and nor will it be just for money. This year's trip to Thermal counts toward the championship. The 2025 season opened with a Chip Ganassi Racing 1-2 finish while Team Penske finished 3-4. Andretti Global took 5-6. St. Petersburg was the third time in the last six races Ganassi, Penske and Andretti swept at least the top five positions in a race. Dating back to last season, there have been six different winners in the last six races.

Coverage

Time: Coverage begins at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday March 23 with green flag scheduled for 3:17 p.m. ET.
Channel: Fox
Announcers: Will Buxton, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee and Jack Harvey will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule

Friday:

First Practice: 6:35 p.m. ET (75 minutes)

Saturday:

Second Practice: 1:05 p.m. ET (60 minutes)
Qualifying: 5:30 p.m. ET 
Sunday:
Warm-up: 11:02 a.m. ET (25 minutes)
Race: 3:17 p.m. ET (65 laps)

FS1 will have coverage of all practice and qualifying sessions. Fox will have race coverag.

This Time, It Counts!

IndyCar's first visit to the Thermal Club last year was for an exhibition race. The event split the field into two heats with the top six finishers advancing to the main event that paid $500,000 to the winner.

This time, instead of having only 12 drivers compete over 20 laps, this year's race will see a full grid of 27 cars attempt to run 65 laps, 199.355 miles, in a race that counts toward the championship. Adjustments have been made to the pit lane to allow a full race to take place. Fifty points are awaiting the winner with another handful of bonus points on offer. 

Last year's exhibition race winner was Álex Palou, and the three-time champion dominated all aspects of the day. Palou started on pole position and he led all ten laps in his heat race. The Catalan driver followed that up leading all 20 laps in the main event, winning by nearly six seconds over Scott McLaughlin. 

Felix Rosenqvist rounded out the podium in last year's Thermal race. Rosenqivst had started second. Colton Herta started last in the exhibition race, but after conserving his tires in the first half of the race, Herta was able to charge up to fourth. Herta also went from 11th to sixth in the heat race to earn himself the final transfer spot. Marcus Armstrong and Linus Lundqvist made it three Chip Ganassi Racing cars in the top six finishers.

Alexander Rossi also saved his tires, but he was not able to get up further than seventh, though his improvement of three positions was second-best only behind Herta's eight-spot gain. Josef Newgarden slid back from sixth starting position to eighth. Christian Lundgaard and Agustín Canapino rounded out the top ten. 

There were two non-finishers in the main event, and both were Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing drivers. Graham Rahal pulled out of the race before hitting the halfway point. Throttle issues ended Rahal's day. Pietro Fittipaldi was disqualified when it was found he did not have enough fuel in his car after regulations stated all cars must start on a full tank. 

With only 12 drivers in the main event, a great number of drivers did not run more than ten laps around the 3.067-mile circuit. For the first heat race, competitors only completed eight laps as that race was stopped due to a time limit.  

Nolan Siegel was seventh in the first heat, the first driver to miss out on the main event. Siegel was driving for Dale Coyne Racing on this day. Siegel's current Arrow McLaren teammate Patricio O'Ward was seventh in the second heat race. 

Neither Will Power nor Scott Dixon made it out of the first heat race. Dixon infamously made contact with Romain Grosjean on the opening lap that sent Grosjean into Rinus VeeKay, taking out both drivers before they could complete a lap. Marcus Ericsson was the most notable driver not to make it out of the second race.

Only five of the eventual championship top ten were in the Thermal main event last year. Four of the 12 drivers finished outside the top fifteen in the championship. 

Already On Top

The bad news for everyone after the opening race of the season is Álex Palou is already the championship leader. 

Despite starting eighth in St. Petersburg, Palou was able to capitalize on the tire strategy as well as the radio issues for his teammate Scott Dixon to pull out what felt like an unthinkable victory even halfway through the first race of the season. Instead of finishing third or fourth, Palou ended up first and scored 51 points. 

It was a good start after a weak end to 2024. The victory ended a two-race skid of finishes outside the top ten. Palou has now finished in the top five in six of the last eight races dating back to last season. In each of the previous two seasons, Palou has had 13 top five finishes. 

The last thing Palou needed was a head start. 

Last season, Palou was never lower than third in the championship. He was third after the first three races. He took the championship lead after he won the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and dropped to second after finishing 16th in Detroit. He had to stop on track when Josef Newgarden spun in front of him in the hairpin. Palou was out of the championship lead for all of two races. He was back on top after his second victory of the season at Laguna Seca. He never looked back as he led the championship over the final ten races to claim his third Astor Cup.

Palou has led the championship after 25 of the last 30 races. He has led the championship after 37 of 68 races with Chip Ganassi Racing. He has been ranked in the top three of the championship after 56 of those 68 races.

The closest rivals are familiar faces. Scott Dixon was second at St. Petersburg, his fifth time finishing on the podium in the last seven season openers. St. Petersburg was the 23rd time Chip Ganassi Racing has had a 1-2 finish, the team's first since Mid-Ohio 2023. Josef Newgarden was third, his first podium finish on a street course since he won at Long Beach in 2022. Scott McLaughlin led 40 laps from pole position at St. Petersburg, but McLaughlin lost too much time when on the alternate tires in the middle of the race, dropping the New Zealander down to fourth.

This is the second time Palou has won the season opener. In 2021, he won the first race of the year from Barber Motorsports Park, his first race with Chip Ganassi Racing, and he ended that season with his first championship. He has finished on the podium in the season opener in three of the last five seasons. He has never finished worse than eighth in the opening race while driving for Ganassi.

Palou will be attempting to become the 12th driver since 1946 to open the season with consecutive victories. The most recent driver to open a season with consecutive victories was his teammate, Scott Dixon in 2020.

Eight of the 11 drivers to open the season with consecutive victories have gone on to win the championship. That includes Scott Dixon in 2020, who won the first three races and went wire-to-wire leading the championship.

Second Time is the Charm

Sixteen races remain in the 2025 IndyCar season. There is more road ahead than is behind, but there are some drivers who are not happy with how the opening race went. One bad race isn't the end of the world, but no driver wants two poor results to open a season. Drivers will want to correct course quickly if they hope to have a respectable season. 

Eleventh isn't a bad result for the opening race, but Patricio O'Ward was likely hoping to finish better than that in St. Petersburg. It didn't help that O'Ward started 23rd and had to overcome a four-stop strategy to finish on the cusp of the top ten in the first race of 2025. O'Ward may have won recently, but dating back to last season, he has been in a slump. It has been feast or famine for the Mexican driver. He has finished outside the top ten in five of the last seven races with three of those results being outside the top fifteen. 

For a moment during the St. Petersburg race, Colton Herta looked to be the de facto leader. Of the drivers that started on the alternate tire and stopped on lap two of the race, Herta was ahead of all of them on the first restart, and Herta even got ahead of Callum Ilott, putting a buffer between him and the rest of those on his strategy. It went wrong when Herta had a botched pit stop where the crew was unable to get the tires on cleanly and the team did not get the car full of fuel. This dropped Herta to 16th in the final result. Last season, Herta had four finishes outside the top ten as he finished second in the championship, 31 points off Álex Palou.

Marcus Armstrong qualified on the second row and spent much of the opening stint running in the top three. Through the pit cycle, Armstrong led three laps. It was a promising day even if the New Zealander was running the alternate tire in the middle of the race. Unfortunately, left front suspension issues ended his race after 46 laps. It is the third time in the last four races Armstrong has finished outside the top twenty. To make matters worse, every time he has started in the top five he has finished outside the top twenty. At St. Petersburg, his Meyer Shank Racing teammate Felix Rosenqvist finished seventh and Armstrong spent much of the opening stint running right behind Rosenqvist. 

The opening lap at St. Petersburg saw three drivers sidelined before they could even complete four corners. Will Power spun Nolan Siegel in turn three and Louis Foster was caught as collateral damage. All three drivers head to Thermal with zero laps completed this season. For two of those drivers, this was not the start they wanted as they try to establish themselves as series regulars. For the other, it was a significant blow to a championship push that coincides with a contract season.

For Power, it was the second time in his career he failed to complete a lap in a race. The other was Toronto 2017. Siegel was classified in 25th, matching his career worst result. He was 25th in the second Milwaukee race last year after a gearbox issue after 24 laps. Foster became the third driver since the start of the 2023 season to not complete a lap in a debut race. Benjamin Pedersen was also caught in an opening lap accident at St. Petersburg and finished 27th in 2023. Tom Blomqvist did not complete a lap on his debut at Toronto in 2023.

The bad news for these six drivers and the other 11 that finished outside the top ten at St. Petersburg is nine consecutive champions had a top ten finish in the first race of the season. Only once since reunification has the champion started the season a with a result outside the top ten. That was Scott Dixon in 2015 when he opened with a 15th-place finish at St. Petersburg. The most recent champion to open a season with a finish outside the top fifteen was Greg Ray, who finished 22nd in the 1999 Indy Racing League opener from Walt Disney World Speedway before he won his only championship.

Inexperience in the Desert

IndyCar might have been at Thermal Club last year, but there are a fair number of drivers who are making their first start at the three-mile facility in Southern California.

Among those drivers in the championship, David Malukas is best positioned after the opening race of the Thermal debutants. Malukas missed last year's race with a wrist injury when he was supposed to be racing with Arrow McLaren. In his first race with A.J. Foyt Racing, Malukas was 13th, best of the two Foyt races. Santino Ferrucci was directly behind Malukas in 14th. 

Neither A.J. Foyt Racing car made the main event last year at Thermal. Ferrucci was eighth in the first heat and Sting Ray Robb was 11th in that same race.

Conor Daly has raced at a number of circuits in his IndyCar career, but he was not in an entry in last year's Thermal exhibition race. On natural-terrain road courses, Daly has not finished in the top ten since he was fifth in the 2022 Grand Prix of Indianapolis. He has not had a top ten finish west of the Mississippi since he was eighth in the first race of the 2020 Iowa doubleheader. His only top ten finish on a road or street course west of the Mississippi was tenth in the 2017 season finale from Sonoma. 

Though Juncos Hollinger Racing's first trip to Thermal will largely be remembered for Grosjean's accident and his reaction afterward, JHR did have a car in the final race. Agustín Canapino was tenth. He had finished fifth in the first heat race after starting eighth.

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing had the most participants in last year's Thermal main event as all three cars made it. The problem is none of those cars finished better than ninth, and now 2/3rds of the RLLR lineup has never raced at Thermal before. Devlin DeFrancesco was a surprise second round qualifier in St. Petersburg, but he dropped to 22nd, one-lap down in the race. Though Foster's debut did not go as planned, he did qualify 16th, the second-best RLLR starter at St. Petersburg, two spots behind DeFrancesco. 

Along with Foster, the other two rookies will also be new to Thermal Club. Robert Shwartzman was 20th on debut in St. Petersburg. Shwartzman was a spot behind Prema teammate Callum Ilott. Ilott will bring some Thermal knowledge into this race for IndyCar's newest team. The Briton raced with Arrow McLaren last year in place of Malukas. Ilott was ninth in the second heat race and did not advance to the main event. Both Prema cars did test at Thermal Club in January.

Jacob Abel is the sixth driver who will be new to Thermal Club. Abel's IndyCar debut was better than Foster's, but not quite as good as Shwartzman's. Struggling with pace the entire weekend, Abel was one-lap down in 23rd, two spots better than where he started, but only ahead of the four drivers that retired from the first race of the season. 

Dale Coyne Racing had Colin Braun in its #51 Honda last year at this event. Braun started 12th in the second heat and finished 13th out of 13 cars.

Fast Facts

This will be the fifth IndyCar race on March 23, and the first since 2003 when CART and the Indy Racing League both raced on this date. 

Twenty-two years ago, Paul Tracy won the CART race at Monterrey, his second consecutive victory to open the season. 

Twenty-two years ago, Tony Kanaan won the IRL race at Phoenix, his second career victory and leading a Brazilian sweep of the podium ahead of Hélio Castroneves and Felipe Giaffone. Kanaan's victory was the first for the Andretti Green Racing organization.

Thermal Club becomes the first new natural-terrain road course to host an IndyCar championship race since Circuit of the Americas in Austin in 2019.

The last two natural-terrain road courses to join the IndyCar calendar did not host a second championships race. IndyCar made one visit to Austin in 2019 before the pandemic cancelled the 2020 round. The next most recent circuit was NOLA Motorsports Park, which hosted its only IndyCar race in 2015 before financial issues shuttered any attempt of a second race in 2016.

Since reunification, the eventual champion has won the second race of the season only twice in 17 seasons (Dario Franchitti in 2009 at Long Beach and Scott Dixon in 2020 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course).

Chevrolet won four of six natural-terrain road course races in 2024. 

The only Honda driver to win on a natural-terrain road course last year was Álex Palou (IMS road course and Laguna Seca).

Chip Ganassi Racing is responsible for Honda's last nine victories on natural-terrain road courses. The last Honda natural-terrain road course victory that was not a Ganassi driver was Andretti Autosport's Alexander Rossi in the July 2022 round on the IMS road course.

Honda has won the last five races held in California.

Team Penske has won ten pole positions since Will Power's most recent pole position (second race of the 2023 Iowa doubleheader).

Will Power has not started on pole position for a road/street course race since the 2022 season finale at Laguna Seca.

The pole-sitter has not won in the last six races, the longest streak without a pole-sitter winning since the final seven races of the 2023 season.

IndyCar has not had a first-time winner in the last 25 races. This is IndyCar's longest stretch without a first-time winner since the 45 races between Alexander Rossi's first victory in the 2016 Indianapolis 500 and Colton Herta's first victory at Austin in 2019. Herta's victory was in the second race of the 2019 season.

This year's Thermal Club race falls on the eve of the six-year anniversary of Herta's first career victory at Austin.

Since the start of the 2020 season, and the introduction of the aeroscreen, the average starting position for an IndyCar race winner is 5.5609 with a median of third.

Since the start of the 2020 season, and the introduction of the aeroscreen, the average number of lead changes in an IndyCar race is 9.8048 with a median of eight.

Since the start of the 2020 season, and the introduction of the aeroscreen, the average number of cautions in an IndyCar race is 3.1707 with a median of 2.5. The average number of caution laps is 18.0121 with a median of 12.5.

Predictions

Álex Palou picks up where he left off last year and he will have two victories from two races. Palou will win from pole position and lead over 50 laps. Colton Herta has a podium finish. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing will have no more than one car finish in the top 12. Juncos Hollinger Racing will have both cars complete the opening lap. Every car will complete the opening lap. At least one top five finisher will start outside the top fifteen. There will be more than 150 total passes. Dale Coyne Racing has one car finish at least six spots better than where it started. Prema will have a car start and finish inside the top fifteen. Sleeper: Christian Lundgaard.

Musings From the Weekend: Radio Check... One, Two, One, Two

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Felipe Nasr, Nick Tandy and Laurens Vanthoor will all had to Le Mans in June with a chance of completing a single-season endurance racing Triple Crown, as the #7 Porsche won the 12 Hours of Sebring. The Formula One season began with a day in the rain. A few races were not run due to the weather. In the desert, something happened for the first time since 1977. In Argentina, it is still good to be in the Márquez family. Baseball season begins tomorrow. But I want to go back a few weeks to an infraction that wasn't an infraction. 

Musings From the Weekend: Radio Check... One, Two, One Two

There has been a little time since the IndyCar season opener, two weeks to be specific. For the most part, it was a quiet race from St. Petersburg. Nothing stood out as all that drastic from that race. It was a somewhat memorable race, but nothing that was all that staggering. It was a good way for a season to start. Not a bore, but it hasn't gotten your hopes up too much. 

The race wasn't the only quiet thing from St. Petersburg. Scott Dixon's radio would like to have a word, and that might be the greatest talking point two weeks after the fact. Dixon was leading and it looked like the race was his until he ran long on his penultimate stint and that time lost gave victory to Álex Palou.

In the moment, it looked like it was another strategy misplayed. Dixon's team went for a shorter final stop and those extra laps were enough to hand the advantage to Palou, a costly mistake in more ways than one. It wasn't just giving away a victory but giving Palou ten extra points in the championship he was already favorite of successfully defending. 

Everything became more clear in Dixon's post-race interview. It wasn't a bad strategy, it was a bad radio. Dixon said his radio wasn't working and he could not hear his crew. There was no strategy. Dixon ran until his fuel warning light illuminated. It wasn't a measured race but making the most of a terrible situation. It is more miraculous it turned into a runner-up finish. Not many other drivers could have been that successful essentially making up the strategy as they went along. 

But Dixon's admission did raise an eyebrow. Radio communication is required at all times between the driver and the timing stand. Penalties are common when there is a radio issue. The first thought that crossed my mind during Dixon's post-race interview was, "Shouldn't that have been a penalty?" It felt like Dixon got away with one. The next question was, "How?"

IndyCar has a pretty stout record when it comes to enforcing the little things, radio communication included. 

Stefano Coletti came to mind when Dixon spoke about his problems. Coletti has likely been forgotten by all of you. The Monegasque driver ran one season in IndyCar in 2015. Driving for KV Racing, Coletti didn't do spectacularly great, but his final race came to mind, because at the Sonoma season finale Coletti was running fifth but was black-flagged when his radio failed. A fifth-place finish or any top ten finish likely would not have changed Coletti's fate, but considering for the longest time pit boards were a main way of communicating, it felt like a black flag was harsh for Coletti's situation, and there was a suitable alternative. 

Either way, rules are rules. But why wasn't Dixon penalized? Why wasn't it caught?

In the days after the event, things were clarified. Dixon may have exaggerated that the radio wasn't working. It wasn't working well. He could barely hear the team and the team could barely hear him, but they could hear something. 

What defines communication is a little grey. In the immediate aftermath of the St. Petersburg race, Scott Dixon made it sound pretty clear he and his team were not in communication. If he couldn't hear their cars for when he should pit and he had to run the car until he saw the fuel warning light come on, they were not connected. 

Just because you can hear someone does not mean you are communicating. 

IndyCar determined Dixon and his team's radio communication was suitable for the entire St. Petersburg race and no infraction had occurred. 

There are many things to monitor during a race. There are 27 cars and their position on circuit must be accounted for at all times. Then there is the racing surface, which can vary from a 7/8-mile in length to over four miles twisting through the Wisconsin countryside. Pit lane might be quiet for majority of the event, but for a handful of laps, it becomes a hornet's nest with the buzz of wheel gun, pneumatic jacks and engines revving. A half-dozen bodies jump over a wall and remain still as cars zip on by at 60 mph. 

Between all of the elements in a race, it is impossible to have someone monitoring everything at all times. Who could possibly listen to all 27 radios and determine if a team is in proper communication? It might sound easy to hear 27 individuals to listen to the 27 cars but IndyCar doesn't have that kind of money to employee just over two-dozen individuals to listen to radios. A problem will only be caught when it becomes obvious, but that means it is something that a team can get away with. 

A mid-race penalty for the radio issues would have killed any hope of a promising result for Dixon and his team. In all likelihood, Dixon would have lost multiple laps to fix the issue and likely would have finished 22nd rather than second. That is a 33-point difference in the championship. Plenty of championships have been decided by less than that. He might not have won the race, but it feels like Dixon caught the fortunate break that no one was listening close enough. After all, he ran 100 laps and no one knew there was a problem until he opened his mouth. For all the officials, television broadcasters (who didn't pick up on the issue either) and fans listening, no one caught that Dixon couldn't hear his crew and have a pit strategy. Perhaps that is enough to determine no infraction occurred, but listening to Dixon's words after the race, that was clearly a driver who was not satisfied with how his radio was working during the race.

Dixon said, "We had no radio," and he described it as "flying blind." 

It is kind of unfathomable that IndyCar can determine the radio communication was sufficient enough not to warrant a penalty when the driver is as adamant as Dixon was immediately after the St. Petersburg race, which makes me wonder if there should be a better way for officials to monitor the radios during the race. 

Twenty-seven radio monitors seem out of the question. Perhaps officials need to do multiple check in during the race, but the radio is not a place of constant chatter. It can be a pretty one-way conversation for most of the race. For the most part, it is a lot of messages from the timing stand with the occasional comment from the driver. As long as the timing stand keeps talking as if nothing wrong, a team can likely get away with an issue. Not saying that is a good thing, but it does make it one of the easiest areas where a team can skirt a penalty. 

IndyCar has long made itself a beacon of motorsports safety. No form of motorsports likes to slurp itself more for its contributions to safety than IndyCar. While the radio exists for communication from driver to team about how the car is performing and strategy, it largely exists for safety reasons as well, whether that be alerting a driver about another car off circuit or debris scattered across the surface, or whether to slow down for a caution and safety personnel on track. 

If a driver is getting out of the car and saying he had no radio, it is a lapse of safety, not only for that driver but for all the other competitors on track and the safety workers scattered around the circuit. 

IndyCar determined Dixon and his team had not violated a rule. If the rule wasn't violated, no penalty can be given. That should end it there, but two-and-two does not add up here, and it feels like Dixon got away with it because IndyCar doesn't have a reasonable way to determine if every car on track has proper communication to its own timing stand. Then again, in the race prior to St. Petersburg, a driver started the race without having his seat belts properly fastened and despite that incredible lapse in safety, no additional penalty was handed down despite the consequences being vastly greater than radio issues. 

This is a series that will list monetary penalties in its post-race report when a driver clips equipment in the pit lane. If that warrants a punishment, it should take a closer look at radio communication, and if a driver says he had "no radio" during a race, that should be treated with the same seriousness, otherwise it appears you can get away with it as long as you keep the appearance that everything is working properly. 

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Felipe Nasr, Nick Tandy and Laurens Vanthoor, but did you know...

Lando Norris won the Australian Grand Prix.

Joshua Dürksen won the Formula Two sprint race from Australia as the feature race was cancelled due to rain. Rafael Câmara (feature) and Santiago Ramos (sprint) split the Formula Three races.

At the 12 Hours of Sebring, the #43 Inter Europol Competition Oreca of Tom Dillmann, Bijoy Gargantuas and Jeremy Clark won in the LMP2 class. The #77 AO Racing Porsche of Klaus Bachler, Laurin Heinrich and Alessio Picariello won in GTD Pro. The #57 Winward Racing Mercedes-AMG of Philip Ellis, Russell Ward and Indy Dontje won in GTD.

Marc Márquez won MotoGP's Argentine Grand Prix and sprint race, Márquez's second consecutive sweep to open the season. Jake Dixon won the Moto2 race. Ángel Piqueras won the Moto3 race.

Broc Feeney, Cameron Hill and Will Brown split the Supercars races from Albert Park. The fourth race was abandoned due to rain. 

Josh Berry won the NASCAR Cup race from Las Vegas, his first career Cup victory. Justin Allgaier won the Grand National Series race. Corey Heim won the Truck race, his second victory of the season.

Coming Up This Weekend

Formula One's second race of the season in Shanghai, and its a sprint weekend.

IndyCar's second race of the season at the Thermal Club, and it is a championship round.

NASCAR returns to Florida with an earlier trip to Homestead.

Supercross is back from a week off with a round in Birmingham.

The World Rally Championship travels to Kenya for the Safari Rally.

2025 Formula One Season Preview

The 2024 Formula One season simultaneously went as expected while also diverging off-course. 

Max Verstappen won the World Drivers' Championship comfortably, but the woes of Red Bull led to McLaren and Ferrari leaping ahead of the Austrian outfit in the constructors' championship. For the first time since 1998, McLaren produced the best car and won the World Constructors' Championship. Verstappen may have won more races, but McLaren was 77 points clear of Red Bull in third. 

Beyond McLaren taking the constructors' championship, four manufacturers won a race. Seven drivers won a race, and they all won multiple times. Never in Formula One history have that many drivers won multiple times. Expectations are certainly raised for the new season.

Entering 2025, change is expected. The status quo will not last forever. Everyone expects this to be the year of something new, but the old remains in the rearview mirror.

Schedule

Melbourne returns as the season opener for the first time since 2019 and it has been paired with the Chinese Grand Prix for a back-to-back to open the 2025 campaign. It is the first of eight occasions with races on consecutive weekends. Shanghai will be the first of six sprint races this season. 

The second occurs after a week off and it is three consecutive rounds. Suzuka hosts the Japanese Grand Prix on April 6 before a trip to the Middle East with Bahrain on April 13 and Saudi Arabia on April 20. 

The Miami Grand Prix will be May 4, and it will be the second sprint weekend of the season. Miami is also the final round before the European season begins. Imola, Monaco and Spain will happen over three consecutive weekends beginning on May 18. 

There will be a brief detour back to North America with the Canadian Grand Prix on June 15. In 2026, the Canadian Grand Prix will move to May and be paired with the Miami Grand Prix on the schedule. 

Austria leads a back-to-back with the British Grand Prix with these races taking place on June 29 and July 6. There will be a two-week break before a back-to-back with the Belgian Grand Prix and Hungarian Grand Prix. Spa-Francorchamps will be the third sprint weekend. The August 3 race from Budapest will be the final race before the summer break. 

Competition resume with the Dutch Grand Prix on August 31, the penultimate Dutch round as it has been announced 2026 will be its final event. One week later, the Italian Grand Prix closes out the European season. Two weeks later, the Azerbaijan Grand Prix will run. 

After a brief layover in Singapore for a race on October 5, Formula One will be off to the Americas. The United States Grand Prix leads off the four-race swing on October 19, and it is the fourth sprint weekend. Mexico and Brazil will follow over the next two weeks. Interlagos remains a sprint round for a fifth consecutive season. There will be a week off before the Las Vegas Grand Prix is run on November 22, and at an earlier time. 

The season closes with a pair of races in the Middle East. Qatar hosts the penultimate round on November 30, and Qatar will double as the final sprint round. Abu Dhabi closes out the season on December 7.

Constructors:

Oracle Red Bull Racing

Drivers: Max Verstappen (#1 Red Bull RB21) & Liam Lawson (#30 Red Bull RB21)

Who should win the intra-team battle?

Verstappen. For all the concerns about Verstappen losing the drivers' championship for the first time in five seasons, the Dutchman should still remain in control within the Red Bull organization. Verstappen has vanquished everyone he has been paired with. No offense to Liam Lawson, but he isn't going to scare Verstappen. 

All the pressure in the world is on Lawson to succeed, and until proven otherwise, the team has Verstappen's back every step of the way. Though Lawson has done reasonable well in his first 11 Formula One starts spread over the previous two seasons, he hasn't been up with the big boys yet, and that is where he will need to be to defeat Verstappen. 

There is a chance the gap between Verstappen and Lawson could be just as large proportionally to what we saw last season between Verstappen and Sergio Pérez. If that is the case, Lawson will be feeling the heat.

Where should Red Bull finish in the championship?

Red Bull was third last season in a somewhat stunning drop. The dominance appears to be over, and it is back to being a team on the chase rather than being chased. Verstappen has enough talent to make a good car look great. He is going to win races and he is not going to go quietly into the night. It is still his team though, and without a strong number two driver who is comfortable with the car, it will cost Red Bull in the constructors' championship. 

McLaren F1 Team

Drivers: Lando Norris (#4 McLaren MCL38) & Oscar Piastri (#81 McLaren MCL38)

Who should win the intra-team battle?

Everyone believes this will be Norris' season to win the championship. If he does that, he will be ahead of Piastri and be the best in the McLaren organization. 

Norris beat Piastri last year by 82 points. Norris got the better out of the car on a more consistent basis, though both drivers were phenomenal and contributed significantly to the constructors' championship. Norris could beat out Piastri but that does not mean he will thrash Piastri. Both drivers will have their days and be on top. More times than not, it will be Norris leading the way.

Where should McLaren finish in the championship?

First was seen as a reach for the 2024 season. "First or bust" is the mindset for the 2025 season. McLaren starts the season with the best car. This is being billed as Norris' year. Piastri is a capable driver who can win races and hold his own at the front. Both drivers should finish in the championship top five. All momentum is on McLaren's side. 

This will be a tougher season than McLaren running away and winning 18 races. We saw it last year. Ferrari was much closer than people remember. A full season championship battle feels likely.

Scuderia Ferrari

Drivers: Charles Leclerc (#16 Ferrari SF-25) & Lewis Hamilton (#44 Ferrari SF-25)

Who should win the intra-team battle?

This could be the toughest one to decide. All eyes are always on Ferrari. This year, the attention is hyper-focused as Lewis Hamilton joins the Scuderia after 12 seasons at Mercedes. Hamilton ended his time with Silver Arrows on a good note, seventh in the championship with a pair of victories. Leclerc had a refreshing season in 2024 as well. The Monegasque driver won his home grand prix, as well as the Italian Grand Prix and the United States Grand Prix, and not only did Leclerc finished third in the championship, he was one of the most productive drivers post-summer break. 

It should be edge Leclerc. He was comfortable last year and ended last season as impressive as Lando Norris. Like the Ferrari duo, that doesn't mean Leclerc will thrash Hamilton. Though he won races last year, the Mercedes had its flaws. Ferrari was able to produce a rather reliable machine last season. In that car, Hamilton could be poised for a resurgence of his own. 

Where should Ferrari finish in the championship?

First or second. Ferrari was good last year, but it had its blips that cost it ground to McLaren. Leclerc's impressive season, particularly at the end, showed Ferrari has found good form and it can make a challenge for the top spot. It has the drivers to put up such a fight. 

If the Ferrari is bulletproof, it can take the top spot. With such a car, Leclerc and Hamilton should combine to beat Norris and Piastri. 

Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team

Drivers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli (#12 Mercedes W16) & George Russell (#63 Mercedes W16)

Who should win the intra-team battle?

It should be undoubtedly George Russell. 

For all the hype around Antonelli, he is 18 years old and was not spectacular in Formula Two. He was good, winning twice, one was a sprint race and the other was the feature race in Hungary, but he failed to score points in 13 of 26 starts. Besides his two victories, he only had two other podiums. Antonelli has been rushed into Formula One. The expectation isn't for success this year, it is for success two or three years down the road and Antonelli to grow into the seat. It is a dangerous way to handle a young driver. 

Russell should beat Antonelli handily, especially if the Mercedes retains the flaws it has not been able to shake in this regulation set. The car could still be good for its five or six race weekends a season, especially if the weather is cooler, but if it is a bear for most of the season, it could break the Italian.

Where should Mercedes-AMG finish in the championship?

During testing, it did not feel like Mercedes had made a significant swing upward in its car. It didn't fall back, but it didn't feel like it made a jump into the top three and could be a regular contender for race victories. If the car is where it has been, it will be fine but not outstanding. If there is a stronger McLaren and a stronger Ferrari, Mercedes could slip a little and not win a handful of races.

Aston Martin Aramco F1 Team

Drivers: Fernando Alonso (#14 Aston Martin AMR25) & Lance Stroll (#18 Aston Martin AMR25)

Who should win the intra-team battle?

Alonso. Even at 43 years old and approaching over 12 years since his most recent victory, Alonso would beat Stroll 80% of the time blindfolded. Alonso is going to beat Stroll for the next 25 years in a Formula One car. There really isn't much more to say. 

Where should Aston Martin finish in the championship?

When it comes to the Formula One grid, it feels equally divided between the top half and the bottom half, and Aston Martin is snug in the middle. Aston Martin was miles away from the top four, but even the 29-point gap between it and Alpine for fifth was flattering to Alpine. The one thing that could cost Aston Martin is one-sided production. It cost them fourth in 2023. Alonso was responsible for 74.468% of Aston Martin's point total. Any teams with a balanced duo can leap ahead of Aston Martin, and fifth can quickly become sixth.

BWT Alpine F1 Team

Drivers: Jack Doohan (#7 Alpine A525) & Pierre Gasly (#10 Alpine A525)

Who should win the intra-team battle?

Odds should be on Gasly because there is a strong chance Doohan will not make it through a full season. Franco Colapinto is the reserve driver and there is already a groundswell for the Argentine to be in the car, even though Doohan has only made one start for the team. Even if Doohan does run the full season, Gasly has the experience and is better set up for handling a less ideal race car.

Where should Alpine finish in the championship?

We must remember much of Alpine's championship finish last season was the team stealing second and third in the wet Brazilian Grand Prix. Alpine finished on 65 points, and 33 of those points came in one race. That isn't even counting the two points Gasly scored in the sprint race that same weekend. The team is already fractured and we haven't even run a race yet. Seventh is the ceiling; eighth is the sweet spot; ninth is realistic as well.

MoneyGram Haas F1 Team

Drivers: Esteban Ocon (#31 Haas VF-25) & Oliver Bearman (#87 Haas VF-25)

Who should win the intra-team battle?

Bearman scored points last year on debut for Ferrari and he scored a point in his first race with Haas. Ocon pulled out what he could in the Alpine. This two could be closer than anticipated. If there is one team where the rookie can beat the veteran, it is Haas with Bearman. 

Where should Haas finish in the championship?

Haas ended last season on a high note. It took seventh in the constructors' championship and it scored points in eight of the final nine races, including a double points day in Mexico. This is a lineup with a lot to prove. Ocon has been able to extract the most out of a good car. Bearman is moving up to Formula One and has already shown comfort at the top level. This is the biggest threat to knocking Aston Martin outside the top five. 

Visa Cash App Racing Bulls F1 Team

Drivers: Isack Hadjar (#6 VCARB 02) & Yuki Tsunoda (#22 VCARB 02)

Who should win the intra-team battle?

Tsunoda started the 2024 in good form, but he did not end strongly with only two points finishes in the final 11 races. The good news is his teammates only combined for three points finishes over that span, and none of them finished better than eighth while Tsunoda's best result was seventh. 

The Red Bull development program is borderline psychological torture. Tsunoda was essentially passed over with Lawson taking the Red Bull seat. The Japanese driver knows he must perform. Hadjar was second in Formula Two last season, and he won four feature races, but we have seen Red Bull drivers enter Formula One flat. If Tsunoda is feeling the pressure, it could bode well for Hadjar.

Where should Racing Bulls finish in the championship?

Whatever you call Red Bull's junior team, the team formerly known as Toro Rosso should always finish better than it actually does in the championship. Last year, 19 points covered sixth through eighth in the championship. It feels like we will see that again, but possible with ninth also much closer to that mid-field battle. No one expects either driver to ever finish in the top six or seven at any point. If the team is never expected to score more than four points in any race, it isn't going to be better than seventh or eighth.

Atlassian Williams Racing

Drivers: Alexander Albon (#23 Williams FW47) & Carlos Sainz, Jr. (#55 Williams FW47) 

Who should win the intra-team battle?

When it comes to talent, Williams has probably the fourth-best lineup on the 2025 grid. The problem is it is Williams who has this talent and it will at best produce the seventh-best car. 

This lineup is pretty even. Albon has been remarkable the last few seasons. We know Sainz, Jr. is incredible and can win if the car is good enough. That will not be the case this year. It is a step back from a Ferrari. Albon knows how to work through the difficult moments while Sainz, Jr. will likely experience some growing pains in a new team, but by the end of the season, Sainz, Jr. should be regularly ahead of Albon. 

Where should Williams finish in the championship?

As what was written above, Williams is one of the best teams on paper. But, it is also Williams. Even if Williams doubled its points total from 2024, it still would have finished ninth in the constructors' championship last year. Does the addition of Carlos Sainz, Jr. triple its points total? That is mighty ask. It does feel like things should be better no matter what. Williams isn't signing Sainz unless it believes it can produce more. If both drivers can score 20-25 points, it will be an outstanding year. That could be enough for seventh. 

Stake F1 Team Kick Sauber

Drivers: Gabriel Bortoleto (#5 Sauber C45) & Nico Hülkenberg (#27 Sauber C45)

Who should win the intra-team battle?

It might not matter because it is Sauber, but Hülkenberg has a history of running for back-half teams and achieving respectable results. Bortoleto is coming off a Formula Two championship where he was consistently finishing in the top five. This car will likely be the greatest handful the Brazilian has ever experienced. For Hülkenberg, it will just be another season.

Where should Sauber finish in the championship?

Sauber scored four points last year and it did not score until the penultimate race of the season. It wasn't the worst car ever on the grid. Sauber had 23 finishes between 11th and 15th. Even a marginal improvement would only net a few points, but not enough to get up to ninth. Output should be a little better, but a little better will not net a recognizable improvement. 

The opening practice for the Formula One season will take place at 9:30 p.m. ET on Thursday March 13. The second one-hour session will be at 1:00 a.m. on Friday March 14. Third practice will be on Friday evening at 9:30 p.m. with qualifying scheduled for 1:00 a.m. on Saturday March 15. The 2025 Australian Grand Prix will start at midnight on Sunday March 16. 

Musings From the Weekend: Race of Too Familiar

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Another season of Drive to Survive is out. Cadillac's Formula One program has been confirmed. People are mad at a person for having an opinion. Chase Briscoe won an appeal. Austin Cindric lost some points and some money. NASCAR filed a countersuit against 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports. Meanwhile, in Australia, Sébastien Loeb made history in Race of Champions, winning the Champion of Champions competition for a record fifth time, and Loeb became the first driver to win the individual title and the Nations’ Cup in the same Race of Champions. Loeb and Victor Martins paired for France and defeated Brodie Kostecki and Will Brown representing the host Australians. This year's Race of Champions had me deep in thought.

Race of Too Familiar

At one point, Race of Champions was a regular end-of-year gathering of some of the best motorsports competitors in the world, and it filled a void. Taking place in December, the event fell when most series had been silent for a few months, and we were still about three months from serious competitions resuming. It was a great filler at an otherwise empty time, and just over 20 years ago, it was moved into European metropolises and stadiums were turned into racetracks.

ROC has survived the changing times of the last two decades. Calendars expanded deeper into autumn. November was no longer off limits, and now we are used to championships running into December, running into ROC's once exclusive territory.

The event has moved to the start of the calendar year, and it has even taken time off. This weekend's event in Sydney was the first in two years, and the first to run in March, right on the eve of the Formula One season opener one week later in Melbourne. It was nice to have it back, but the event has lost some of the shine it had 20 years ago.

A competition gathering the best drivers in the world is tough to manage. For starters, you are never going to get the best 16 to 20 drivers in the world all in one place. All you can do is get the best collection of talent that is possible, and ROC did a great job of that at one time. It might not be 16 champions from 16 different series, but it was respected drivers from a variety of categories. It pitted drivers against one another where you were interested to see who would come out on top. 

Lately though, the ROC field has felt familiar... too familiar... and not only has it felt familiar but it is starting to feel outdated. 

In 2005, there were 20 drivers competing in the second Race of Champions to be run at Stade de France in Paris. The average age of those drivers was just under 31 years of age. The oldest driver was German rally driver Armin Schwarz at 42 years old, one of four drivers in their 40s at the event. Ten drivers were below the age of 30.

In 2025, there were 20 drivers competing in the first Race of Champions held at Stadium Australia. The average age of those drivers at the start of competition on Friday was just under 36-and-a-half years old. Four drivers were over the age of 50. Another two drivers were older than Schwarz's age in the 2005 competition. Only six drivers were below the age of 30. 

That is without mentioning that four drivers from that 2005 competition were still competing in 2025, and it would have been five if illness did not prevent Mattias Ekström from traveling. 

Twenty years ago, Race of Champions moving to a stadium was something we had not seen previously. It strived to get the best possible field for people from around the globe to tune it. There was something for everyone. It has weathered some challenges over the last 20 years, but we are not seeing that same effort. The event hasn't come close to drawing that previous excitement.

ROC has become an event where it is resting on the known. It has its cast of characters that they know will not say no. Too many of the current field are retired drivers that do nothing else all year. Twenty years ago, the only ROC driver who did not compete full-time in a series was Colin McRae, and he was only two years removed from his last full season in the World Rally Championship.

Half of the 2025 field is not racing full-time anywhere this year. Kurt Busch, Travis Pastrana, Alister McRae, David Coulthard, Petter Solberg, Sebastian Vettel, Heikki Kovalainen, Toby Price and Molly Taylor are all not competing anywhere, and Valtteri Bottas is the Mercedes reserve driver, which is not competing. The FIA World RallyCross Championship is also in hiatus, and it looks increasingly unlikely there will be a 2025 season, which means Johan Kristoffersson is also without a full-time gig.

Race of Champions is becoming less of a representation of what the best drivers in the world look like every year. 

ROC has a difficult task attracting high profile drivers. It is an unattached event hoping invitees will come from the goodness of their hearts and not because of a paycheck. They are doing this at a time when manufacturers, teams and sponsors have greater control over a driver's career and what he or she can and cannot do. 

It is much easier to get a retired driver, who has no strings holding them back, but we have seen enough David Coulthard. It was nice getting to see Tom Kristensen, but we are good. For all that is good, shake Travis Pastrana's hand and thank him for his service. 

This event must attempt to remain relevant for survival. Running a week before the Formula One opener likely turned out not to be the best choice. What team would let a driver compete in an unsanctioned event a week before the season opener? There is a narrow window for this event to take place and draw drivers from all over. There must be a time between the middle of January and the middle of February where Formula One drivers can participate and plenty of other forms of motorsports are not entirely busy. 

There are more than Formula One drivers out there though. We know Race of Champions isn't going to be the 20 best drivers coming together. That is unrealistic, but what is realistic is bringing together talented drivers from multiple categories of motorsports that makes it interesting. That is what it was in 2005.

Sure, it featured the World Rally Champion, Indianapolis 500 winner and a 24 Hours of Le Mans winner, but you also had three active Formula One drivers plus two of the best junior drivers who were on the verge of Formula One. You had a mix of sports car drivers, touring car drivers and rally drivers. The drivers that were competing you felt fit the category of Race of Champions. 

Jeff Gordon wasn't NASCAR Cup champion in 2005, but he was one of the best in NASCAR. Bernd Schneider wasn't Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters champion in 2005, but he was one of the best in DTM. If you get a smattering of top five drivers from eight or nine championships around the world, you have a pretty compelling competition.

Outside of the local Australians, nobody competing this year did anything notable in a top category the year before. 

Max Verstappen and Kyle Larson might be out of reach, but there are plenty of drivers in this world that would make for a memorable competition. 

The United Kingdom deserves Nick Tandy and James Calado as its representatives. 

The Netherlands has more than Verstappen. Nyck de Vries, Robin Frijns, Nicky Catsburg, Renger van der Zande and Richard Verschoor are out there.

We should have an Italian team with DTM champion Mikko Bortolotti and Antonio Fuoco or Antonio Giovinazzi or Alessandro Pier Guidi or any of the Italian Ferrari Hypercar drivers. 

Pick any of the 300 Danish drivers that are succeeding around the world. 

New Zealand should have had a better team than relying on a teenager to compete. I know they are busy, but between Scott Dixon, Scott McLaughlin, Mitch Evans, Nick Cassidy, Brandon Hartley, Marcus Armstrong and Earl Bamber, none of them were available? Formula E is in the middle of a two-month break! How busy could Evans and Cassidy be?

How come we cannot get a Japanese team in this competition? Or a Swiss team? Why can't the van der Linde brothers represent South Africa? There is always Jordan Pepper if one backs out. Get Dane Cameron and a Taylor Brother or Colin Braun to represent the United States. 

It is never going to be perfect, but Race of Champions can be better. Perhaps the world has changed too much and it is truly impossible to orchestrate for a respectable collection of drivers to compete in an all-star competition, but the effort must be made. 

Eventually, it will not be possible to call David Coulthard, Petter Solberg and Sébastien Loeb for said competition. Either the event will die because it will be unable to replace the old geezers or it will die because the competitors are drivers the audience did not grow up watching. 

Race of Champions has a place in the motorsports world. Motorsports needs a competition that cuts through the specialization and brings together racers from all corners of the world, but Race of Champions must actually bring together respectable racers that are relevant to the current championships, not to the championships decided 20 years ago.

Winners From the Weekend

You know about France and Sébastien Loeb, but did you know...

Christopher Bell won the NASCAR Cup race from Phoenix, his third consecutive victory. Aric Almirola won the Grand National Series race. 

Kakunoshin Ohta and Tadasuke Makino split the Super Formula races from Suzuka.

Cooper Webb won the Supercross race from Indianapolis, his third victory of the season. Seth Hammaker won the 250cc race.

Coming Up This Weekend

Formula One opens in Melbourne.

Supercars has four races scheduled at Albert Park as well.

The 73rd 12 Hours of Sebring is here.

MotoGP is going to Argentina.

NASCAR makes a stop in Las Vegas.