The fastest six cars today all had their qualifying runs come on their first attempt. Four of those cars never came out after their first attempt. Even then, eight of the Fast 12 made it based on their first qualifying time, and 11 of the Fast 12 drivers were in the Fast 12 before the first second attempt of the day occurred.
The only change from the first run through the line to the end of the session was Kyffin Simpson was bumped from 12th and Christian Lundgaard took the final spot.
There was hardly any drama for 12th until Conor Daly took to the track for the final attempt of the day. Daly was sitting in 21st and needed to find nearly 6/10ths of a mile per hour over four laps to crack the top 12. It looked like Daly was ruining the story as his run prevented Marco Andretti from making one final attempt to make the top 30. It turned out to be worth it.
Daly ended 0.0564 seconds short of making the Fast 12. Daly will start 13th, justifying his run, but that was closest it really came to feel like the Fast 12 mattering.
2. The battle was at the back. For most of the day it felt rather incomplete because of Marcus Armstrong's practice accident and Colton Herta's accident on his first qualifying run. Half of the drivers on the outside had yet to complete a run for the first five-and-a-half hours of qualifying. The driver in 29th really didn't feel like 29th. We were playing the waiting game until those final two drivers came out.
Sitting in the drop zone for a third consecutive year was Graham Rahal. Despite his teammates being spread over spots in the Fast 12 and with a cushion in the low-20s, Rahal was again on the outside and struggling to keep his car flat through the corners. On Rahal's second run of the day, he got in the top 30, knocking out Rinus VeeKay and putting Andretti between Rahal and the bubble.
Colton Herta was the first of the repaired cars to take to the track for a qualifying run. With no shakedown laps on the car, Herta took a car that was meant for short ovals and put it 29th, knocking out his teammate Andretti, and placing Rahal 30th.
For one hour, Rahal sat on the bubble.
Armstrong made it to the circuit, but did not have the speed on either of his attempts. VeeKay made a run at it and didn't come all that close. Abel waived off his second of two attempts today, and his only attempt to re-enter the top 30. Marco Andretti made multiple runs at it.
Andretti went out two cars after Herta and fell short. The car cooled and Andretti's fourth attempt was his best of the day, but at 229.859 mph, Andretti was 0.0028 seconds shy of the top 30. Rahal makes the race and gets a much-deserved Sunday of rest. Andretti will lead the four-car fight for the final three spots.
3. No one wants to be in the last chance qualifying session, but Marco Andretti should not panic. His fastest two runs were 229.859 mph and 229.857 mph. Of the other three qualifiers, the closest was Rinus VeeKay at 229.519 mph. Marcus Armstrong never completed a four-lap run, but you can afford one car to beat you in the last chance qualifying session. You don't want two cars to beat you and live on the bubble, tempting fate.
Andretti should feel good even if it is a challenging situation. That car has the speed to make the field. Just don't over think it.
4. This must have been a difficult day for Marcus Armstrong because at the start of the day it felt like he would be a contender for the Fast 12. One practice crash and you are floating out in space. Perhaps you will land on the moon or you could float hopelessly into infinity.
Armstrong expressed confidence after he was cleared to return to the car. There are plenty of unknowns though. He did two runs. The first was clearly a shakedown run. The second started well but tailed off quickly. There will be a practice session tomorrow afternoon to get the car sorted, but it is a limited chance to get settled before the most pivotal qualifying run of Armstrong's career.
5. It does feel like one of the Dale Coyne Racing cars will miss the race for a second consecutive year, and it does not feel great for Jacob Abel.
The only four-lap run Abel completed was at 226.859 mph. The next slowest run was Graham Rahal's first run at 228.686 mph. Every other attempt was over 229 mph.
The speed could be there, but that is a mighty gap for Abel to overcome. It is almost identical to what Nolan Siegel experienced last year.
I am a little surprised Rinus VeeKay is in this spot. I knew VeeKay was not making the Fast 12 and keeping up his incredible tear of starting no worse than seventh in the Indianapolis 500. I thought he could qualify in-between 18th and 27th. Not brilliant but good enough to make the race.
It is a little sad to see Coyne in this spot for a third consecutive year. Two years ago, both cars survived. Last year, Siegel was knocked out. This year, there is a good chance one of its cars will miss the race again, and that is kind of the sign of the times with the DW12 and this engine formula. It feels like Dale Coyne Racing is being left behind, and I don't see it coming back without heavy investment.
6. We must acknowledge the possibility that it doesn't matter which Dale Coyne Racing car is bumped, and Jacob Abel will be in the race no matter what happens tomorrow.
For everything I have said about DCR being left behind, the team did get Miller High Life to sponsor one of its cars as a one-off sponsorship. Yes, it is as a tribute to Danny Sullivan's 1985 Indianapolis 500 winner as Abel, a fellow Kentuckian, is attempting to make his first "500" 40 years after Sullivan's victory.
I cannot imagine Miller High Life not being in the race. There is a chance the sponsorship could just move to VeeKay's car if VeeKay makes it and Abel doesn't, but we should prepare ourselves for a backroom deal deciding the final spot on the grid.
7. Let's move to the front of the grid. Álex Palou was fastest at 233.043 mph. Scott McLaughlin was net at 233.013 mph. Josef Newgarden was the third car over 233 mph at 233.004 mph. No surprises in the top three. No surprises in the top five with Patricio O'Ward fourth at 232.820 mph and Scott Dixon fifth at 232.659 mph.
Pretty predictable. One of those five will likely win pole position tomorrow.
8. The highlight of the day was Robert Shwartzman. The fourth qualifier of the day, Shwartzman ran a 232.584-mph average and he was never in doubt of missing the Fast 12. Add to it that Callum Ilott qualified 23rd and wasn't really at risk of the last chance qualifying session, Prema could not have asked for a better first time qualifying for the Indianapolis 500.
This winter, when Mike Cannon left the team over a week after joining the Prema operation, Prema was criticized as not respecting Cannon, and many believed the team was making an uneducated mistake. The team was labeled as stubborn due to its European roots and unwilling to work with Cannon.
How is Prema doing now? It has been a tough year for the new team. The results in the first five races have been poor, but in its first trip to Indianapolis, it put a car in the Fast 12 and neither car was at risk of missing the race.
I hope you are all enjoying crow.
9. David Malukas, Felix Rosenqvist, Takuma Sato, Will Power, Marcus Ericsson and Christian Lundgaard round out the Fast 12.
Again, there was no real drama in the Fast 12 proceedings. Lundgaard was the one guy to squeeze his way in on an additional attempt, but that move didn't really make any waves when it happened.
Eight teams are represented in the Fast 12. All three Team Penske drivers made it. Chip Ganassi Racing and Arrow McLaren each had two cars advance. Then we have Prema, A.J. Foyt Racing, Meyer Shank Racing, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing and Andretti Global.
There is plenty of representation, and pole position will go to either Team Penske or Chip Ganassi Racing.
10. We do live in this period of inevitability. We aren't going to see a surprise. Penske or Ganassi will end up on top. McLaren isn't really an upset if either O'Ward or Lundgaard wins please pole position.
Felix Rosenqvist was eighth and four-tenths of a second off Palou's fastest run. He isn't overcoming that. Shwartzman's story is not going to lead in pole position as a rookie. Malukas isn't doing it. Sato isn't doing it. Ericsson is probably happy just to be there.
Save your energy. Don't get too caught up in hope.
11. It was a good run from Daly. He has shown good speed all week. Alexander Rossi fell short of making the Fast 12, and for the first time in the team's history, Ed Carpenter Racing has failed to make the Fast Nine/Fast 12 at the Indianapolis 500. Nothing lasts forever, and Rossi will start 14th.
Kyffin Simpson rebounded nicely from yesterday's accident in practice to qualify 15th. Simpson was never in danger of falling out of the top 30. That was a good response today. That is row five.
12. Row six will be Ed Carpenter, Santino Ferrucci and Devlin DeFrancesco. Carpenter was fine. Ferrucci had better pace, but didn't quite get to that next level. He has moved up from starting spots in the middle of the field before. Ferrucci will be fine on race day. DeFrancesco looked comfortable for a team not known for its comfort in qualifying in recent years.
13. Row seven features Sting Ray Robb, Christian Rasmussen and Kyle Larson. Robb had good opening laps on his qualifying runs, but the speed didn't last over ten miles. Rasmussen, the best finishing rookie from last year's race, is a spot ahead of Larson, last year's Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year. Oh, God works in mysterious ways!
Larson will have some work to do from 21st on the grid. It isn't fifth like last year, but I think this is a good thing. Larson will not be bouncing from Indianapolis to North Wilkesboro tomorrow. He can go to North Wilkesboro and not worry about Indianapolis. He doesn't have another qualifying run to worry about. This is a blessing in disguise.
14. Row eight has Louis Foster, Callum Ilott and Hélio Castroneves. Foster looked good on each run. His first run had him on row seven. When he went out for a second run and got back up to eighth. Not bad for Foster. Ilott didn't have that same pace as Shwartzman, but I am not sure Shwartzman knew he had that pace. I think Prema would have been happy with Ilott in 23rd and if Shwartzman ended anywhere between 18th and 27th. This was a glorious day for the Italian team.
I am a little surprised Castroneves was not more competitive. He had to wait until the end of the first run through the qualifying line due to his car failing inspection prior to qualifying. His first run was a 229.634-mph average. That set the tone for his qualifying day. That time would not have cracked the top 30. He had to run fast enough to avoid the last chance qualifying session. It limits what risks to take. He got into the top 30 but wasn't pushing for much greater than that.
15. This was a disappointing day for Andretti Global. Ericsson made the Fast 12, but Kyle Kirkwood was first, first, second and third on the no-tow report over the four practice days, and Kirkwood was never close to the Fast 12. He was 30th in the qualifying line. That didn't help, but the team didn't even find the speed on a later run to move him up the order. Kirkwood will have the inside of row nine in 25th.
Nolan Siegel will be in the middle, and I am sure he is thankful to make the race after missing last year. I don't think he wanted to be the slowest Arrow McLaren car in 26th. Slowest and in 16th? Ok, not the worst spot to be in. In his almost full year since joining McLaren, Siegel is routinely way out of the picture from the other McLaren cars, more so than other drivers who have been canned for better results.
16. I am going to cover the two Dreyer & Reinbold Racing cars here, because Ryan Hunter-Reay will be on the outside of row nine and Jack Harvey will be on the inside of row ten. They went out sixth and seventh in the first pass through the line. They only had 0.0101 seconds between them after their fastest four-lap runs. At least the cars are even. I think D&R expected to be a little higher up the order. I didn't think both these cars would have been that close to the day one bubble.
17. This does feel like a missed opportunity for Colton Herta. Herta was fourth on the no-tow report yesterday. Andretti Global had high expectations to get at least two cars into the Fast 12. Instead, it has one car on row nine, one car on row ten and possibly one car on row 11 or missing the race. The team will have a lot of work to do on race day, but you are forgiven if you are already writing off Andretti Global for winning this race.
18. Third time was the charm for Graham Rahal, as he locks himself into a top 30 spot and will avoid the last chance qualifying session. I bet Rahal wishes he was somewhere between DeFrancesco and Foster in 20th and far from this trouble spot.
It must be frustrating to see Sato make the Fast 12 for the second consecutive year and have two teammates that are not blisteringly quick but at least fast enough that they are not in danger of having to run on Sunday.
I don't know what Rahal needs to do. We know the team made changes ahead of last year, and last year was not much better. However, Rahal is the only RLLR driver sweating making the top 30. The team made steps this year. None of its cars missed the top 30, but Rahal still has the longest way to go. I don't know what he needs, but he must talk to somebody.
I feel like there is mental block that is preventing Rahal from getting to a position where he can at least comfortably making the race. It feels like he knows he is so far off the top but every change he makes ends up making it more difficult for him to make the top 30. He almost gets in his way and cannot live with a 16th-place car, but the only direct he can go from is backward. He almost needs to work on just being average and accept that rather than being frustrated when things are not perfect.
Rahal needs an entirely new approach to Indianapolis Motor Speedway. I almost want to suggest looking for a different team. Step away from the family team for Indianapolis only. It might be the only option at this point.
19. I have written about this before. I think we need to limit qualifying attempt. There were 76 attempts made today. My issue is the number of attempts that were nothing. We had 12 waived attempts today. We had plenty of attempts that weren't changing much. Some of those waived attempts were Scott Dixon and Patricio O'Ward going out while in the top five and just shaking down the car for two laps. They had no reason to go out. They were not at risk of being knocked out of the top 12, and there is no incentive to be fastest on day one.
I kind of wish a team had to withdraw its time to re-qualify. It makes these qualifying runs carry some weight to them. There is no reason for anyone to get jazzed up about Alexander Rossi making his fourth attempt of the day when he has failed to crack the top 12 on his first two additional attempts.
There should at least be a limit so these teams aren't making minuscule changes and hoping for massive leaps in speed. There must be a risk to making another run. "If we waive this one then we only have one more shot at." If the attempts are unlimited, the teams aren't putting the best thought into their adjustments.
I think a limit will help teams. Now it feels like teams are just making minor tweaks and not getting anything out of it. If there was a limit, teams would have to really think about what they must do different to try and make the top 12 or top 30. I think we would have more educated changes to cars and we would see more movement.
When cars are just constantly taking to the track and there aren't that high of stakes, it is pretty dull to watch over nearly seven hours.
How about compromise? You get one attempt where you time is not withdrawn. However, you get two attempts where your time must be withdrawn. Each team gets a maximum of four attempts, and if they need to use their third, there will be some consequences.
20. I was actually thinking about this on Daly's final attempt.
Daly took to the track and there was just under four minutes left. Daly left from the non-priority lane and kept his time as Andretti was not in the priority lane yet to block him. If Daly went out and spun on lap one, hitting the wall and ending the qualifying session with time left on the clock, Daly would have kept Andretti from a qualifying run AND Daly would have kept his spot on the grid.
In any other qualifying session, if an accident occurs and it draws a red flag, that driver is losing out. If you bring out a red flag in qualifying on a street course or road course you lose your time. But for the Indianapolis 500, if you go out from the non-priority lane and have an accident, you are fine! Your time still stands, and you are still in the race.
That is a little absurd because we could see an accident where a car spins, gets airborne, clips the catchfence and tear a large hole in it, the driver walks away and his fine, but the catchfence requires a lengthy repair. If such an accident happens with an hour to go, the session is over. No one else is getting back on the racetrack for the day. That one driver ended the session and ended a lot of hopes of making the top 12 or top 30.
That shouldn't be the case. It is something to think about. I don't think every qualifying attempt for the Indianapolis 500 should come with no stakes to lose, especially because every qualifying run takes over four minutes from the time the car leaves to start its out-lap to the checkered flag. It isn't a case where a qualifying run takes 40 seconds.
Nothing will change until something happens. That is how IndyCar works, but this should be adjusted. I am not saying throw everything out. There is a lot of good with this system and I feel like this was the first time in about 25 years we didn't go into qualifying day with people asking what the format was. That is a victory in and of itself.
I am saying adjust it to make it better and clear up some of these grey areas.
21. Onto tomorrow. The Fast 12 and the bottom four will each have their own one-hour practice session in the early afternoon. The Fast 12 session will begin at 4:05 p.m. The one-hour Last Chance Qualifying will begin at 5:15 p.m. with the Fast Six following at 6:25 p.m.
22. For all that has happened over the last few days and for all the Indianapolis 500 qualifying sessions I have watched, I don't feel tense about tomorrow. There are not going to be any surprises. We know how tomorrow will play out. Use common sense and don't overthink it.