2024 Motorcycle Predictions: Revisited

It might not have been the planned location for the 2024 MotoGP season finale, but the two-wheel world championship ended on its scheduled date last Sunday in Barcelona, and it marked the end of the motorcycle racing season. It was a good year for first-time champions and European manufacturers. A few notable competitors are calling it time on their careers. A few others are getting ready to go once again in 2025. The winter is not long, and testing has already begun for next year.

Before we get there, we should look back on predictions made for a few of these championships, checking to see how they turned out. 

MotoGP

1. On at least three occasions with a rider win consecutive grand prix

Correct!

Last season, no rider won consecutive races. It was the first time there was no consecutive race winner since the inaugural six-race season in 1949. 

This year, there were exactly three occasions where a rider won consecutive grand prix. 

Francesco Bagnaia had a four-race winning streak with victories in Catalunya, Italy, the Netherlands and Germany.

Marc Márquez would win consecutive races at Arágon and Misano. 

It was getting dicey at the end of the season, but then Bagnaia won in Thailand and Malaysia. That was the third occasion and the victory in the Barcelona finale to cap off his season with three consecutive victories was just a cherry on top. 

2. Marc Márquez is no worse than the third best Ducati rider in the championship

Correct!

Márquez was third in the championship, and you would think third would have been great, but Márquez nearly fell short in this prediction. 

Due to Ducati's dominance, it took the top four spots in the 2024 championship. Márquez was third-best among the Ducati riders, exactly within where he needed to be in this prediction. Except Márquez was only six points ahead of Ducati factory rider Enea Bastiannini! Márquez was outside the top ten in three of the final six races, keeping Bastiannini in touching distance. 

Márquez did enough to get there but if you told me Márquez would finish third in the championship, I would have guessed he achieved this prediction with comfort. It was anything but that during the final weekend from Barcelona.

3. There will be zero races where a points-scoring position in unclassified

Wrong!

Last season, there were six races where fewer than 15 riders took the checkered flag, meaning not every points position was paid out. This year, 19 races saw all 15 points paying spots awarded. That would have been great in almost every other MotoGP season... except this one. 

There was one race where fewer than 15 riders finished. In Indonesia, only 12 riders took the checkered flag. It was the 15th race of the season. We were so close. Damn!

4. Pedro Acosta will be the best finishing rookie in the championship since 2019

Correct!

Acosta had to finish at least eighth in the championship for this prediction to be correct. Acosta ended up sixth on 215 points, 42 points to the good from what he needed to be and only two points behind Brad Binder in fifth. 

Acosta started the season with two podium finishes in the first three races. He had some rough days, but he did have six podium finishes this season. He was in the top five in seven races. At Motegi, he started on pole position, and he won two of the first three sprint races this season, and he also picked up fastest lap on debut. 

Sixth in the championship is the best championship result for a rookie since Fabio Quartararo in 2019. 

5. The Japanese Manufactures will surpass their combined 2023 podium finish total in the first half of the season

Wrong!

Very wrong. Yamaha and Honda went in the wrong direction. They combined for five podium finishes last year. They combined for zero podium finishes this year. No Japanese bike finished in the top five this season. The best finis was sixth in Malaysia with Fabio Quartararo on his Yamaha. Quartararo was 13th in the championship, the best rider on a Japanese bike. 

I don't know how to paint a more bleak picture than this prediction. 

6. A Moto2 race is decided by less than a tenth of a second

Correct!

Entering 2024, Moto2 had gone 29 consecutive races without a race being decided by less than a tenth of a second. 

How did the 2024 season begin? 

Alonso López won the season opener in Qatar by 0.055 seconds over Barry Batlus.

Boom! One race and it was achieved. 

There were three other races with a margin of victory under a tenth of a second. 

Joe Roberts won in Mugello by 0.067 seconds over Manuel González. 

Celestino Vietti won the second Misano race by 0.029 seconds over Arón Canet.

Canet won the Barcelona finale by 0.091 seconds over González.

We went about a season-and-a-half with no races decided by less than a tenth of a second. We had four this season alone. 

I say we made up for lost time and then some. 

7. Leopard Racing wins at least four Moto3 races

Wrong!

Leopard Racing won once with rookie Ángel Piqueras winning the San Marino and Rimini Riviera Grand Prix from Misano, but that was it for the team that has won at least four races in six of the previous nine seasons. 

I don't think anyone saw David Alonso winning 14 of 20 races. That had a role in a lack of Leopard victories.

Piqueras was the last rider not named David Alonso to win this season. Piqueras was second to Alonso in the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix from Misano, the start of Alonso's seven-race winning streak to end the season. That was Piqueras' only runner-up finish. He had two third-place finishes. 

His teammate Adrián Fernández had three podium finishes all season, second in Indonesia before a pair of thirds in Japan and Australia.

8. At least one MotoE race has an all-Spanish podium

Correct!

There was one race all MotoE season with an all-Spanish podium, and it was smack-dab in the middle of the season, the first race of the Dutch TT weekend from Assen, the ninth of 16 races. But it wasn't an all-Spanish podium originally. 

Héctor Garzó won the race, his first victory of the season, but Italian Alessandro Zaccone was second. However, Zaccone was disqualified due to a tire pressure infringement. This promoted Spaniard Oscar Gutiérrez up to second, and Spaniard Jordi Torres went from fourth to third. It is the first all-Spanish podium in MotoE history. 

That is one way to get a prediction correct.

World Superbike

9. Of the three podium positions, Jonathan Rea finishes third the least.

Wrong!

The hilarious thing about this prediction is that despite Rea's struggles on the Yamaha in his first season with the make, he did get on the podium. 

The problem is he only got on the podium once, and where did he finish? 

Third, of course! Third in the SuperPole race from Donington Park! 

It was a rough season and Yamaha declined and Rea was the third-best Yamaha rider. He also missed five races due to injury, but Rea ended up 13th in the championship and he did not win a race in a World Superbike season for the first time since 2008 when he only ran the final round as a wild card entry after taking second in the World Supersport championship.

10. At least two riders who didn't win consecutive races in 2023 win consecutive races in 2024

Correct!

And not only did we get two riders, but we had three riders do it in 2024. 

The first was in the opening round. We were halfway to this prediction being correct after one round. Alex Lowes won the SuperPole race and race two from Phillip Island on his Kawasaki. 

We had to wait a little bit longer for the next one. It did not help that Toprak Razgatlioglu won 13 consecutive races and 15 of the next 18 races after Phillip Island. If it wasn't for Razgatlioglu's injury in practice from Magny-Cours, we might not have seen a second different rider who didn't win consecutive races in 2023 do so in 2024. 

With Razgatlioglu out, Andrea Locatelli won the first race, but Nicolò Bulega won the SuperPole race and race two in France. 

There you have it, prediction met! But there is more!

After Magny-Cours, World Superbike visited the Cremona Circuit in Italy for the first time. Razgatlioglu was still recovering from the back injury suffered two weeks prior in France. Danilo Petrucci went on to sweep the round in his home country. 

Bulega would go on to win consecutive races again in the season finale from Jerez, but three different riders won consecutive races after only Razgatlioglu and Álvaro Bautista (who did win consecutive races in 2024 at Aragón) were the only two riders with consecutive victories last season. 

At least that kept it interesting. 

Supercross/Motocross

11. Jett Lawrence will have at least one stretch where he doesn't win five consecutive rounds

Uh... technically, wrong!

When this predictions were made, I stated any absence due to injury would not count. Lawrence injured his thumb in the middle of the Motocross season and he did not run the final six rounds of the season. 

So those don't count. What about the 17 Supercross races and the first five rounds of the Motocross season?

In Supercross, Lawrence's longest winless streak was three races on two occasions. He won eight of 17 races and claimed the championship relatively comfortably over Cooper Webb. 

In Motocross, Lawrence swept the first two races of the season opener from Fox Raceway. Then Chase Sexton swept the Hangtown races. Hunter Lawrence won the first race from Thunder Valley, but then Jett won four consecutive races until he was second in the second race from Southwick. 

Then he injured his thumb and his season was over.

The longest Jett Lawrence went without a victory in 2024 was three races. 

12. Riders outside the top three in the Supercross championship combine to win at least four rounds

Wrong!

Riders outside the top three in the Supercross championship combined to win three rounds. 

It started with an unexpected victory for Aaron Plessinger at San Diego. It would be one of three podium finishes for Plessinger, and his season ended five races early after suffering an injury. He was 11th in the championship.

Ken Roczen won in Glendale, and he had a good season going. Roczen had three podium finishes through the first six races. He had six podium finishes in 13 races. Then he was injured in Nashville and that ended his season early, knocking him down to seventh in the championship.

Then there was Eli Tomac. It was not a strong season for Tomac, but he had some good runs. His only victory was the Triple Crown weekend in St. Louis. However, a thumb injury sidelined Tomac for the finale at Salt Lake City, and subsequently the first nine Motocross weekends. This left him fourth in the final championship standings. 

It was closer, but how close was it? 

Tomac had the best ride in Arlington. After a fall on lap two, he was 16th, nearly 13 seconds off the lead. He ended up finishing second, three seconds behind Cooper Webb. It was one of five runner-up finishes Tomac had this season. 

Jason Anderson had a pair of runner-up results, behind Jett Lawrence in the Anaheim season opener and behind Roczen at Glendale. Obviously, trading Andersen for Roczen would mean we still would have had only three victories for riders outside the top three. 

Roczen was second to Lawrence at Indianapolis, so that could have been the fourth victory we needed.

Hunter Lawrence was second to his brother Jett at Denver. Justin Cooper was second in the season finale in Salt Lake City to Chase Sexton. 

There were plenty of close calls, but close was not good enough here.

Six-for-12. Better than last year. Not great. Not bad. Middle of the road. Some were close, but we already established good is not good enough. It could be worse though. Hopefully it is better in 2025.

Musings From the Weekend: Unsatisfying and Complicated

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Ugo Ugochukwu became the second American to win the Macau Grand Prix. MotoGP's season went to the final lap in Barcelona, and it unveiled a new logo. A historic season came to a close in one of the lower ranks. Supercars' season ended a day early at Adelaide with a dead rubber on Sunday. IMSA did some testing. Chip Ganassi Racing is loaning out a few drivers to Meyer Shank Racing for sports car purposes. Alpine will have Mercedes engines come 2026. However, it is not about looking ahead. It is about looking back to last week and the conclusion to the NASCAR season.

Unsatisfying and Complicated

Discontent was noticeable in the days following NASCAR's season finale weekend from Phoenix. It was bubbling long before the green flag waved for the start of the final race. The events of the previous week at Martinsville had left a sour taste in the mouths of many, and the finale was equally as likely to have a tart outcome. 

When Joey Logano won the race and claimed his third championship, 2024 became another season trying to justify the results of the season. 

For the second consecutive year, the record for fewest top five finishes for a champion in NASCAR's modern era has been reset. Logano had seven. For the second consecutive year, the champion had the worst average finish in NASCAR Cup Series history. Logano's average of 17.111 was over three positions worse than Ryan Blaney's average of 14.0833 last year. Three of the four worst average finishes among Cup champions have come in the last three seasons, and the bottom five have all occurred since the introduction of the elimination format in 2014. 

Somebody has to be the worst of the best. There is bound to be a year when good is actually good enough, but in the last few years below-average has been enough to be champion far too often.

That isn't Joey Logano's fault. It is the system. Don't hate the player, hate the game. Regardless of who it was, anyone who had Logano's season and wound up champion would feel unsatisfying, and that is because the final result really did not match what we saw over the nine-month season. 

If you have been watching from the start, you know the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season did not have one or two dominant drivers. It had a few periods where different drivers stood on top, but those same drivers would go through spells where results would not go their way.

Kyle Larson won six times, more than any other driver, but he only finished in the top ten in exactly half the races. As often as we celebrated a Larson victories, it felt like we were spending equally as much time wondering how he threw a race away. William Byron started hot, winning three of the first eight races, and then wasn't much of a threat until October. Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell each looked like the best driver for portions of the season and then would have a bad race or two. Denny Hamlin looked good for a moment. There wasn't a clear best driver this season, but at no point over the first 32 races did we think the best was Logano. 

At the end of the regular season, Logano had as many finishes outside the top 25 as he did top ten finishes (eight). 

Only once in the regular season did Logano have consecutive top ten finishes, a second at Richmond and a sixth at Martinsville. 

On two separate occasions, Logano went at least four consecutive races without a top ten finish, including a six-race run that followed his two consecutive top ten finishes in Virginia. 

At no point this season did Logano have consecutive top five finishes. His average finish in the regular season was 18.346. The average grid size in the first 26 races was 37.5 cars. Over the regular season, on average, Logano was barely finishing in the top half of the field. 

That doesn't scream champion, but cinderella runs exist in sports. Except, the final ten weeks didn't feel like a fairy tale either. 

Logano won three playoff races, credit to him, but those were his only top five finish finishes all playoffs. He had two other top ten finishes. He had as many finishes 28th or worse as he did victories in the final ten races. 

Again, not Logano's fault, but the system's. 

Anyone who had that kind of regular season combined with that kind of postseason was not going to feel like a champion that truly represented the events of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season. 

It has become common to compare NASCAR to the stick-and-ball sports and the outcomes of those seasons, but motorsports does not compare, and we know this!

Thirty-three drivers competed in all 36 races this season. Erik Jones missed two races due to a back injury, but 34 drivers compete in at least 94% of the races. The average grid size over the entire season was 37.777 cars. We had 36 examples of these drivers competing against each other. In no stick-and-ball sport do the same teams compete against one another 36 times a year. Hell, even baseball had divisional opponents only facing each other 18 times a year until recently. 

Playoffs exist in other sports due to schedule imbalance, size of the leagues and geography. It is a 68-team NCAA men's basketball tournament because there are 351 teams at the Division I level. It is not feasible for all 351 teams to play against one another. A tournament with the best teams from conferences largely determined by region is the best way to determine who is best. Even the Cinderellas are a wicked step-sister somewhere. The Florida Atlantic team that made the Final Four two years ago was still a 31-3 team entering the tournament. It won far more than it lost. 

The best teams don't always win, but the winner at least feels fitting. The 2007 New England Patriots may have lost to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII, ending its perfect season, but the New York Giants still went 10-6, one of only 11 teams to win at least ten games that season. The New England Patriots didn't lose the Super Bowl to a 6-10 team that entered the Super Bowl on a three-game losing streak and had lost seven of the previous eight games. 

The best might not always win, but more times than not the champion should at least feel fitting, and that has not been the case for the last few seasons in the NASCAR Cup Series. It has become increasingly too common. 

The ten-race "Chase" format might have been equally as untraditional as the current elimination format, but the champion after those ten races at least felt more satisfying. None of them felt fortunate. None felt lucky. It was hard to be consistent over ten races, but more importantly, if you made the Chase, whether it be a ten-driver or 12-driver field, it at least felt like you earned your spot. There was a clear bottom you had to be above to make the playoffs. 

Tony Stewart didn't have the greatest regular season in 2011, but he at least earned that spot by finishing ninth in points over 26 races. A victory at Talladega or in the Brickyard 400 didn't make up for a regular season with only four top five finishes and 11 finishes outside the top twenty. Playoffs spots required being at your top over 26 races. One day in the sun wasn't going to erase 25 days of rain. 

Once Stewart made the playoffs, his performance actually improved. He won five of ten races. He ended the season with four consecutive top five finishes and six consecutive top ten finishes. Stewart reached the threshold to make the playoffs and then in the playoffs he performed better than everybody else. With this current system, we can see drivers be bum-average for 26 races and remain mostly bum-average for the playoffs, but timely victories can lead to a championship, and that is not a good thing. 

Where can NASCAR go from here? I think championship-winning crew chief Cole Pearn might have had the best idea. 

Go off YTD point standings all year, top 16 get in playoffs. If you win in a round you advance, the remaining spots are filled by the YTD point standings that are being added to with each playoff race. Very high chance the best cars all make the last race, winner take all.

— Cole Pearn (@colepearn) November 13, 2024

Stop with the "win-and-your-in" nonsense. It was bad enough Harrison Burton made the playoffs with top ten finishes, and we nearly had Austin Dillon also make the playoffs with three top ten finishes and an average finish of 22.884 over 26 races. It is ok to set a floor for the playoff field and not have it be a floating line that can fall on rock-bottom. 

If you want to make playoff races matter more, fine, have the winners of each race in a playoff round advance. Make those victories carry more weight, but don't reset the points. Don't have the hocus pocus junk that is playoff points be what separate drivers after a round.

Take the top 16 after 26 races and add 1,000 to their points total, but the 274-point gap between Tyler Reddick in first and Kyle Busch in 16th would remain. Nine spots in the second round are still guaranteed to decided on points, but for Kyle Busch in 16th, he would still be 116 points outside the top nine. He would have some work to do to advance without a victory. A victory still gets him through, and his best strategy might be to swing for the fences over three weeks. 

Not resetting the points would be more rewarding for the best drivers over the entire season. It means they are more likely to advance on points each round but they aren't going to take it easy because there will be a constant fight to be the best in points over the entire season. That driver will be guaranteed a spot in the final four for the final race. Think about that. The best in points after 35 races will at least have a shot at the championship. Isn't that what we at least want? The top drivers aren't going to be dogging it for nine weeks. That competition will remain high while there will be drivers who know overcoming 116 points in three races will not happen and victory is their only realistic chance of advancing to the next round. 

As for those who don't want points racing in the regular season and want drivers incentivized to win the most races possible, increase the points total for a victory. Make it 100 points to win a race and keep second place worth 35 points. NASCAR's biggest issue regardless of the points system is not how much a victory is worth, but rather proportionally how much second and third and so on are worth. If second pays 87.5% the amount of points as a victory then second place isn't that bad.

It is worth ,pre with stage points. A driver can win the race and not have the most points. That should never be the case. Make it so even if a driver wins both stages and finishes second, at best that is worth 55% of a victory. That is a simple change that rewards winning. The more wins you have, the more likely you will make the playoffs. Winning one race and averaging a 22nd-place finish will likely not get you a playoff spot, but winning one-race with an average of 15th might get you an extra two or three spots over drivers that do not win in the regular season.

NASCAR is too far gone to go back to where it was, but it can make some simple changes to at least have a more satisfying champion, and one that at least feels representative of the entire season. It can have an uncomplicated system with an established bottom that ensures the best over an entire season are competing for a championship and not ten good drivers with six guys that fell ass backward into a victory. 

If there is one thing we know from NASCAR is it will tinker when things are bad in hopes of making it better. We have enough evidence from 20-plus years of playoff formats to know what works and what doesn't work. The current structure is the best it has been in combining consistent results over the entire season and elevating the status of a race victory. It can be better and NASCAR cannot be afraid to trade some of the manufactured drama for sporting integrity. 

Champions From the Weekend

Jorge Martín clinched the MotoGP championship with a third-place finish in Barcelona. 

Will Brown clnched the Supercars championship with a runner-up finish in the first race from Adelaide.

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Ugo Ugochukwu, but did you know...

Francesco Bagnaia won the Solidarity Grand Prix of barcelona and the sprint race. Arón Can't won the Moto2 race, his fourth victory of the season. David Alonso won the Moto3 race, his seventh consecutive victory and his 14th victory of the season.

Broc Feeney and Will Brown split the Supercars races from Adelaide.

Maro Engel won the FIA GT World Cup from Macau. Thed Björk and Dušan Borkovič split the Guia Race.

Coming Up This Weekend

Fomrula One hopes to avoid the mayhem in Las Vegas thisyear. 

Jeddah hosts the GT World Challenge Europe Endurance cup finale.

Rally Japan closes out the World Rally Championship season. 

Career Retrospective: A.J. Allmendinger

Our Career Retrospective series returns for a fourth year, as we have another batch of past IndyCar drivers to consider. We will look at a few drivers and how they ended up in IndyCar, what they did while competing in the series and how the series changed between the driver's first appearance and today. 

There is another theme in this year's set of drivers. It might not seem obvious, but it will become obvious once we get to the end.

The second part of this three-part series will be a driver who has made his name in a different discipline, but his short time at the top of North American open-wheel racing was inspiring. As a young driver, he was thrilling, but raw. Once everything clicked, it was clear he would be a winner. His career hit a rough patch and appeared lost, until it sprung an opportunity. It led to a rush of success and a near championship seemingly out of nowhere. However, the signs of the times led him away from a race winning seat. The Split drained away talent as money and opportunity was not in either of the series. Eighteen years later, the greatest thought is what could have been. 

It is A.J. Allmendinger.

Where was Allmendinger coming from?

From his home in Los Gatos, California, Allmendinger started in quarter-midgets and karting before making his way into the Barber Dodge Pro Series system. He made three starts in 2001, and he finished sixth in his third start in Vancouver. This led to a full-time ride in 2002.

Prior to the full season in the Barber Dodge Pro championship, Allmendinger won the Team USA Scholarship and went to New Zealand to run a few New Zealand Formula Ford championship rounds. In the New Zealand Grand Prix at Teretonga Park, Allmendinger and Team USA teammate Bryan Sellers both  finished on the podium. Sellers was second and Allmendinger was third behind future Supercars race winner Fabian Coulthard. That was the high point for Allmendinger, as he competed in seven of the 16 races and finished 11th in the championship.

Back in Barber Dodge Pro, he opened the season with a pair of victories and four victories in the first five races. Over the ten-race season, Allmendinger never finished worse than fourth and he easily won the championship.

Allmendinger's 2002 season led to a shot with Carl Russo's RuSPORT in the Atlantic Championship for the 2003 season. His winning ways continued at the next level. Allmendinger won seven of 12 races competing against the likes of Ryan Dalziel, Michael Valiante, Danica Patrick, Joey Hand and Luis Díaz. Allmendinger's success led RuSPORT to move up to Champ Car for the 2004 season.

What did IndyCar look like when Allmendinger started in the series?

The state of North American open-wheel racing also led to RuSport's move up. 

CART was gone. Bankrupt at the end of 2003, the series was sold with Kevin Kalkhoven, Gerry Forsythe and Paul Gentilozzi taking over and re-branding as the Champ Car World Series. Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing were gone. Team Green was leaving for the Indy Racing League with Michael Andretti becoming a co-owner and Rahal Letterman Racing was leaving as well. Adrián Fernández announced his team's withdrawal and move to the IRL a month prior to the Champ Car opener from Long Beach. 

All Champ Car had were Newman-Haas Racing and Forsythe Racing as powerhouses. RuSPORT's two cars brought the 2004 grid up to 18 full-time cars. 

Allmendinger was one of five rookies in the 2004 season opener at Long Beach. One rookie spent the previous year in Formula One (Justin Wilson), one ran two CART races the year before and raced in World Series by Nissan two years prior (Roberto González), one was 17 years old and moving straight from ninth in Barber Dodge Pro (Nelson Philippe) and the other made two CART starts and a Barber Dodge Pro Series start the year before (Alex Sperafico). 

The 14-race calendar visited four countries. Three countries hosted multiple races. There were only two oval races, and the final two races were outside the United States.

Push-to-pass was introduced for the first time, as were multiple tire compounds during a race, and teams started the 2004 season with a mandatory number of green flag pit stops, which was dropped after two rounds.

Though there was only one engine manufacturer, there were two chassis providers on the grid, Lola and Reynard.

How does IndyCar look now?

I think it has been pretty well covered. 

Over two-dozen full-time entries. 

One chassis manufacturer. Two engine manufacturers. 

Seventeen-race calendar in two countries with only one race outside the United States. 

Compared to Champ Car, more ovals.

Compared to the IRL, fewer ovals. 

Newman-Haas, Forsythe, Kalkhoven and Gentilozzi are gone. 

Push-to-pass is the norm, and there are now hybrid systems that essentially act as another form of push-to-pass. Multiple tire compounds are the norm, and they have even been used at ovals. Mandatory total of green flag pit stops has never really come back. 

The big difference is IndyCar is not seeing teams join the series to fill the grid. Teams are joining because they see some value. The series is not desperate for cars. The series is full to the point that it is limit grid size at all races, especially now with the introduction of the charter system. 

What did Allmendinger do in-between?

For a team that was new to Champ Car with a rookie driver, 2004 was a rather promising first year for Allmendinger and RuSPORT. The first two races were not great, but he was fifth in his third start at Milwaukee. He finished in the top six in three of the next four races, including a third at Vancouver, his first career podium finish. 

He ended the season with five finishes in the top six in the final six races, including another podium finish in the finale in Mexico City. This stretch included a Montreal race where he led ten laps after starting second. He went on to finish fifth in that race. He started no worse than seventh in the final seven races. 

There was not much of a sophomore slump in 2005. It was a slow start with finishes of eighth and tenth to open the season, but he was second at Milwaukee, fifth at Portland and second at Cleveland. After a bad race in Toronto, Allmendinger picked up his first career pole position in Edmonton. 

In the inaugural Edmonton race, Allemendinger found himself in control approaching the final laps of the race, and his RuSPORT teammate Justin Wilson was in second. Under caution with nine laps remaining, Wilson spun behind Allmendinger running under caution speed. Allmendinger restarted with Sébastien Bourdais behind him and two laps after the restart, Allmendinger slapped the barrier exiting a corner while leading. It ended his race eight laps short of victory.

Allmendinger got back on the podium two races later in Denver. He closed the season with a pair of runner-up finishes and it lifted him to fifth in the championship, one spot better than his rookie season. 

Expectations were high in his third year, but Allmendinger was caught in an opening lap accident in the Long Beach season opener. He bounced back with a third two races later in Monterrey and then he was fourth at Milwaukee. Through four races, he was up to fifth in the championship.

However, five days after the Milwaukee round, Allmendinger was released from RuSPORT in favor of Cristiano da Matta in Russo's hopes of being a greater threat to defeating Bourdais and Newman-Haas Racing. Unexpectedly out of a ride, Allmendinger caught a break when Forsythe Racing decided to replace Mario Domínguez with Allmendinger only four days ahead of the Portland round.

Allmendinger responded with a second-place qualifying run in Portland. He then took the lead at the start and never looked back, leading 100 of 105 laps on his way to his first career victory. This began a three-race tear that would see Allmendinger win three consecutive races. After Portland, he won from pole position in Cleveland. He led 38 laps and won from second at Toronto. This run lifted him to second in the championship, 23 points behind Bourdais. 

Bourdais responded over the next two races but Allmendinger won at Denver while Bourdais tangled with Paul Tracy on the final lap. The gap was 32 points with four races remaining, unfavorable for Allmendinger, but not insurmountable. 

The championship hopes nosedived in Montreal. Allmendinger led the first 13 laps from pole position, but a broken driveshaft ended his race on lap 14. Bourdais went on to win the race. Allmendinger struck back with a victory at Road America and the gap was 58 points with two races remaining. Unfortunately, the hopes vanished in Surfers Paradise after an accident on lap 19. Bourdais clinched the title with a race to spare.

During Allmendinger's run in 2006, he was also linked to a move to NASCAR through his Red Bull sponsorship. He made his debut in Truck Series at Loudon in September, a week prior to his Road America victory, and he ran at Talladega the week after that. Four days after his accident in Surfers Paradise, Allmendinger was announced as a member of Team Red Bull's inaugural driver line-up for the 2007 NASCAR Cup Series season. Allmendinger did not return to Forsythe for the 2006 season finale in Mexico City, but he still finished third in the championship. 

NASCAR was tough sledding for Allmendinger, and he failed to qualify for his two attempted Cup races late in the 2006 season. He did not qualify for 19 races in 2007 and the first three races of 2007. He was sidelined for the next five races and veteran Mike Skinner took over to get the car some owner's points. Allmendinger returned and started the next 21 races, but he was removed for the final seven races with Skinner and Scott Speed splitting the Red Bull entry.

Allmendinger closed out the season with a race at Michael Waltrip Racing and five races with Gillett Evernham Motorsports. He remained with the GEM organization as it merged with the Petty Enterprises organization ahead of the 2009 season. Allmendinger was third in the rain-shortened Daytona 500, and he qualified for all 36 races, ending up 26th in the championship.

He would spend the next two seasons at RPM, rising to 19th and 15th in the championship. This led to an opportunity at Team Penske after Kurt Busch was released from the organization. Allmendinger had some tough races, but he was second at Martinsville and won his first career pole positional Kansas. Results started to improved and he finished ninth at Sonoma and Kentucky in consecutive weekends.

However, after the Kentucky race, Allmendinger was suspended from NASCAR due to a failed drug test after Allmendinger had taken Adderall. Allmendinger was released from Team Penske on August 1, 2012 and he was reinstated by NASCAR on September 18. He was able to run four races later that season for Phoenix Racing. 

Despite the failed drug test, Allmendinger remained in the good graces of Team Penske. He was offered an IndyCar test in the winter of 2013. His speed led to a two-race run between Barber Motorsports Park and the Indianapolis 500. Allmendinger qualified tenth in his first open-wheel race in nearly five-and-a-half years and Long Beach was quickly added to his schedule. He finished 19th at Barber and he was 23rd after a mechanical issue in Long Beach.

At Indianapolis, Allmendinger was competitive immediately. He qualified fifth, the best Team Penske starter. He spent much of the first half of the race running in the top ten and he took the lead on lap 98. However, after leading 14 laps, Allmendinger was forced to make a pit stop as his seatbelt was coming loose. Despite the untimely pit stop, Allmendinger was able to rally to finish seventh, the second-best rookie behind race runner-up Carlos Muñoz. 

Allmendinger had the Belle Isle doubleheader and the Fontana finale added to his schedule. Sadly, he was taken out in the first corner on the opening lap of both Belle Isle races. He qualified second at Fontana, but he had an accident on lap 189.

While competing in IndyCar in 2013, Allmendinger remained active in NASCAR. He started 18 Cup races between Phoenix Racing and JTG Daugherty Racing. He won both his starts in NASCAR's second division for Team Penske, his first victories in NASCAR competition. This run of form led to a full-time ride with JTG Daugherty Racing in 2014. 

Allmendinger has remained in NASCAR ever since. His first career Cup victory came at Watkins Glen in 2014. He has since added two more Cup victories to his career, including the first Cup race on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course in 2021. He has won 18 races in NASCAR's second division, and he has been a regular championship contender, as he has spent three of the last four seasons full-time at that level. 

In 2025, Allmendinger will return to full-time Cup Series competition with Kaulig Racing.

What impression did Allmendinger leave on IndyCar?

When thinking about A.J. Allmendinger and IndyCar, the first thought is always, "What could have been?"

Allmendinger leaves in 2006. By 2008, Champ Car and the IRL merge. If he remained with Forsythe for the 2007 season, Allmendinger was bound to contend for the championship again. I don’t know if he beats Bourdais and Newman-Haas, but he would have won races, and maybe it is enough to win the title. If Allmendinger had won the title or at least been competitive in 2007, where does he go in 2008? Is Allmendinger enough to convince Forsythe to remain on the grid in a reunified IndyCar Series? Is he a prize free agent and get hired early by Team Penske or Newman-Haas or another organization? 

No matter what, IndyCar would have looked different. 

Allmendinger might not have been the ball of energy he is today, but he was far more of a personality than anyone in either series at that time other than possibly Hélio Castroneves. A successful American, who was not afraid of speaking and engaging with the media and fans was something IndyCar needed around 2008, and it just missed it.  

We have no clue how things would have played out, but there is a chance Allmendinger could have been the face of IndyCar for the last 15 years. He was comfortable on ovals as we saw in the handful of ovals races he did in Champ Car. All the road and street courses suited him. If it wasn’t Will Power filling in for Castroneves when the Brazilian was in court for tax evasion, it could have been Allmendinger, but Allmendinger could have gotten more all along. He could have been the one to replace Sam Hornish, Jr. heading into 2008. We will never know but that wouldn’t have surprised us. 

Allmendinger would have helped IndyCar during that period. I don’t know if it would have flipped anything, but it would have been a driver willing to be the face of the series at a time where no one stood out and was also succeeding. 

When considering the struggles Allmendinger went through in his first two years in NASCAR, the fact he is still competing there on a full-time basis and is a regular threat for victories, it is quite remarkable. He joined at a time when open-wheel talent was being offered opportunities left and right. Most of these drivers were mocked when they didn’t succeed, Allmendinger included. Some had short runs in NASCAR. Allmendinger has stuck it out, and now he can win anywhere. 

It will be 12 years since Allmendinger made that brief return to IndyCar. At the end of 2013, I probably would have bet Allmendinger would be back again. About to turn 43 years old next month, I don’t think we will see him return to IndyCar or Indianapolis for another run. Coincidentally, Juan Pablo Montoya returned to IndyCar in 2014 with Team Penske, a year after Allmendinger’s cameo comeback. Montoya returned and was a championship contender after over a decade away. If the offers had not been there for a return to NASCAR, Allmendinger could have a fruitful second act in a unified series. The ability was there. 

Sadly, like nearly everything in Allmendinger’s IndyCar career, it is a case of wondering what might have been. 

 

2024 NASCAR Predictions: Revisited

NASCAR season is finally over, and I think most are relieved the season is over. There is a sense a good number of people wanted a break, and there is another identity crisis emerging after the outcome of this season. After starting in February, a break in November is much needed. There is not even three months until the teams return to competition. 

Before we get back to racing, we should look back on what has just happened. Three national touring series have wrapped up their seasons and there were plenty of memorable races and moments. A dozen predictions were made ahead the action, and it is time to see if the thoughts of last winter were true.

1. The Cup Series champion will have at least five top five finishes between the months of June, July, August and September

Wrong!

It is hard to believe this one was wrong, but for the second consecutive season, the NASCAR Cup Series champion had fewer than five top five finishes over the four months that make up summer. Last year, Ryan Blaney failed to have any top five finishes over that four-month stretch. Joey Logano did better than that, but he fell short of the prerequisite for this prediction. 

Logano had four top five finishes over these four months. 

Fifth at Gateway

First at Nashville

Fifth at Pocono

First at Atlanta

Logano had seven top five finishes all season, the fewest for a NASCAR Cup Series champion since Bill Rexford in 1950.

2. Every Cup playoff driver finishes the season with at least four top five finishes

Wrong!

This prediction was dead the moment Harrison Burton won the August race at Daytona. It was Burton's first top five finish of the season, and let's face, Burton wasn't going to get three top five finishes in the final 11 races of the season.

Either way, Burton wasn't the only playoff driver to fail to reach four top five finishes this season. The winner of the next race at Southern 500, Chase Briscoe, only had three top five finishes. The difference is Briscoe's Darlington victory was his third top five finish of the season. All he needed was one in the final ten races. Briscoe was sixth at Watkins Glen.

For a season that had a bunch of unexpected winners, some reached four top five finishes. Austin Cindric reached four top five finishes. Daniel Suárez reached four top five finishes. Without those victories, they likely don't make the playoffs. Without their victories at Daytona and Darlington, Burton and Briscoe likely don't make the playoffs either. Who ended up on the outside?

Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain, who all ended the season with six top five finishes, and Kyle Busch, who had five top five finishes this season. Great.

3. William Byron will have fewer victories where he lead 20 laps or fewer

Correct!

Byron only won three races this season, so as long he led at least 21 laps in one of those victories we were good. 

However, he started the season winning the Daytona 500 with four laps led. He was one-third of the way to matching his 2023 performance through one race of the season. However, he led 42 laps and won at Austin and then he led 88 laps and won at Martinsville. Three victories through the first eight races. 

How did the final 28 races go? No victories for Byron. There you go. Prediction correct. 

4. 23XI Racing will win more Cup races but have fewer drivers in the final top ten championship standings

Correct!

Last season, 23XI Racing won twice and it had two drivers in the top ten of the final championship standings. 

This season 23XI Racing won three races and had one driver in the top ten of the final championship standings. 

Tyler Reddick was responsible all three of 23XI's victories this season. Reddick was fourth in the championship and Bubba Wallace was 18th after he did not qualify for the playoffs.

5. Shane van Gisbergen's average finish across the three national NASCAR series will be greater than 15.5

Correct!

Year one of the full Shane van Gisbergen experiment in NASCAR went pretty well. It wasn't perfect, but for a driver who spent over 15 years competing in Supercars, this would be a transition as he moved to a primarily oval-based series after years of exclusive competing on street courses and road courses. 

After winning on his Cup debut last year at Chicago, everyone expected he would win again in NASCAR on a road course. That happened. He won three times. Portland, Sonoma and Chicago. It was three victories in five races. Pretty damn good. 

While he did have top five finishes in five of six road/street course races, and he lost second for a controversial track limits penalty at Austin, he did finish 12th in his first race at Daytona and he was third at Atlanta. He was sixth in his first Phoenix start and he finished 11th on his first trip to Martinsville. He was also fourth at Indianapolis, seventh in the summer Darlington race and he finished eighth in the playoffs at Kansas. 

While he had ten top ten results, there were growing pains. He had eight finishes outside the top 35. 

Van Gisbergen did well in his 12 Cup starts. He was second at Watkins Glen and seventh at the Charlotte roval, but he did throw away a promising run at Chicago. He did complete every lap in both Talladega races, and he finished 12th in his first Cup race at Martinsville. In addition to Chicago, he had six more finishes outside the top 25 in Cup.

Nobody should be expected van Gisbergen to be blowing the doors off the competition, but with his road course skills, it was inevitable he would lock up a playoff spot with a victory and then have some good days here and there. There will still be tough days. 

With that said, over 45 starts in NASCAR's top two divisions, van Gisbergen's average finish was 18th, which was expected by this prediction, but was also pretty impressive for him. That is kind of where his natural talent should put him. The more time he spends in NASCAR, the better he will develop. I don't know if he will every be averaging a top ten finish over an entire Cup season, but van Gisbergen can certainly hold his own to the average competitor in the Cup Series.

6. Ty Gibbs will get his first career Cup victory before the All-Star Race

Wrong!

This was a prediction limited to the first 13 races, and it looked promising to start the season. Gibbs had three top ten finishes in the first four races. Two of those were top five results. He led 137 laps at Bristol before finishing ninth after everyone struggled on tires. He was third at Austin and ranked second in points. At that point, it felt inevitable Gibbs would win and it would be soon.

However, he finished outside the top ten in the next four races and in five of the next six. In the final chance for this prediction to be correct, Gibbs was second at Darlington. Brutal. 

How did the rest of the season go for Gibbs?

After four top five results in the first 13 races, he had four top five finishes in the final 23 races. He ended the season with five consecutive finishes of 30th or worse. 

7. Both Legacy Motor Club entries finish in the top 25 of the owners' championship

Wrong!

This one was wildly wrong, and the switch to Toyota did not help Legacy Motor Club. 

The #43 Toyota was 29th in owner's points and the #42 Toyota was ranked 35th!

Woof! It was worse than last year! The #43 entry was 27th last year and the #42 entry was 32nd. The team went in the wrong direction!

Erik Jones ended up 28th in points and missed two races. John Hunter Nemechek was 34th. 

As a collective, the Legacy Motor Club results weren't much worse than last year. The team had one top five finishes and six top ten finishes combined. Last year, the team had one top five finish and seven combined top ten finishes. The difference is last year Jones was responsible for all of that and Ty Dillon contributed nothing. This year Jones had one top five and two top ten finishes while Nemechek had four top ten finishes. 

That is some progress, but Jones' averrable finish dropped from 20.4 to 22.9. Nemcheck did have an average finish of 25.4 compared to Dillon's 27.5. It wasn't entirely a down year, but this was not a year of upward mobility either. 

It can only go up from here in 2025, right?

8. The Iowa Cup winner will have won there previously in one of NASCAR's other national series

Correct!

Ryan Blaney won the inaugural Cup race held at Iowa Speedway, leading 201 of 350 laps from second on the grid.

Blaney's first career Truck Series victory came at Iowa in September 2012. It was his third career start. He also led 252 of 260 laps on his way to victory at Iowa in August 2015 in NASCAR's second division.

9. The driver that wins the most races in NASCAR's second division wins the championship

Wrong!

Austin Hill won four races, but Hill ended up fourth in the championship. Justin Allgaier won two races and took the title. The streak extends to 15 consecutive seasons without the driver with the most victories winning the championship at NASCAR's second level.

This season was rather competitive, and that was expected. Only four drivers won at least three races this season, but eventually the number's game will turn and the driver that dominates this series will win the title.

10. This will be the season with the most race winners qualifying for the playoff in NASCAR's second division

Wrong!

This one fell short by one. We needed nine drivers to clinch a playoff spot with a race victory in the regular season. We had eight! Even worse, there were 18 race winners this season. Sixteen of those drivers won in the regular season.

If you had told me, there would be 16 winners in the first 26 races, I would have said it is a lock there would be nine winners making the playoffs. I might have even said it would have to be ten drivers. It was eight. 

The stunning thing was A.J. Allmendinger didn't win a regular season race, and he didn't win until Las Vegas with four races remaining. Jesse Love won a race, Ryan Truex won twice thought not as a full-time driver, Shane van Gisbergen won three times, Connor Zilisch won on debut. All of that occurred in the regular season, and Allmendinger could not win once. 

Sheldon Creed had six runner-up finishes in the regular season but no victories! That ninth different winner could have happened. It just kept falling short.

11. Drivers with a first name beginning with the letter "C" will combine to win fewer than ten Truck races

Wrong!

This one stings because drivers with a first name starting with the letter "C" needed to win fewer than ten races. Not ten or fewer, but fewer than ten. No more than nine, two fewer than their combined victory total in 2023. 

How did it work out this year? They combined for ten victories. 

Christian Eckes won six times and Corey Heim won four times. Entering the penultimate race, they were on nine victories. Eckes dominated that race but Taylor Gray took the lead late only for Eckes to knock him out of the way. There went the prediction as well. 

As you can see, it was just one of those years of constantly end up falling one short.

12. Each Chicago race will complete at least 95% of the scheduled distances but neither will exceed 110% of the scheduled distances.

Wrong!

I don't know what NASCAR has to do to get a clean weekend in Chicago, but it felt like this year was set to be better, and it was, but for the second consecutive year it was not smooth sailing. 

The Grand National Series race on Saturday went the scheduled distance, 50 laps, 107 miles.

Sunday is where it went sideways. 

All week, the forecast was clear for both days. Come Sunday, there was a storm a coming. Another rain storm red flagged the race and the delay pushed it up against sunset. NASCAR made the call that the race would end once two laps were completed after 8:20 p.m. local time. When Alex Bowman took the checkered flag, only 58 of the scheduled 75 laps were completed, 77.333% of the scheduled distance. 

Let's remember that in two years of the Chicago street race, NASCAR has completed 78% of the scheduled distance, shortened the scheduled distance by 25% for year two, only for it again to only complete essentially 78% of the scheduled distance. 

At this rate, we are looking at a scheduled distance of 56 laps in 2025 with only about 43 laps being completed. Oh my goodness! It doesn't get much worse than that. 

Except it does, because my predictions went four for 12 this year. Lousy. Plain lousy is what that is. Some were harsh, but it is lousy nonetheless. I mean, batting .333 would have made you the best hitter in Major League Baseball this season, but I am not looking to top Bobby Witt, Jr. 

On to better things in 2025.

Musings From the Weekend: The New Relationship

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

It was a light weekend. Prema confirmed its IndyCar lineup. Sauber hired a Brazilian. Red Bull tested a world champion. Formula E tested as its season opener is less than a month away. MotoGP has a new home for its finale. Lamborghini is possibly leaving the FIA World Endurance Championship across the board, Hypercar and GT3. Joey Logano won his third NASCAR Cup Series championship with a victory in Phoenix. However, with the NASCAR season completed, this is a chance to look into 2025 and what will be different, at least over the first few months of the season, as NASCAR and IndyCar will share a new home.

The New Relationship

It has been two months since the IndyCar season ended, and there are still around four months until the 2025 season opener from St. Petersburg. One-third of the offseason down, two-thirds to go. 

When IndyCar does return, it will be on a new network in the United States, as Fox takes over from NBC in what is a multi-year deal. All 17 IndyCar races are scheduled to air on network television, a first for the series. It will also be a continuation of sorts, as there will be a familiar, shared partner on the Fox family of networks. 

Unlike the previous decade where the second half of the IndyCar season saw it and NASCAR share a television partner, IndyCar and NASCAR will share a television partner for the spring portion of the season rather than the summer portion. 

With NBC, we saw IndyCar and NASCAR races sometimes strategically scheduled to allow one to lead into another, whether it be Mid-Ohio ahead of the NASCAR Cup race on the Chicago streets or a Loudon Xfinity race leading into a Saturday night race from Iowa. It wouldn't always go as planned. IndyCar's 2018 season finale from Sonoma saw the opening lap missed due to the Cup race from Las Vegas running long. The thought was there though.  

There would be promotion for both series during each other's races. There were years when NASCAR would run at Daytona on Saturday night and push an IndyCar race the following afternoon. For a few seasons, the Bristol night race would be the night before IndyCar at Pocono. It was a home for motorsports and it did its best to make sure the rising tide lifted all boats, making sure motorsports fans knew where to watch the action. 

Moving to Fox, the door is open for this continuing, and it likely will. We have already seen IndyCar present on some Fox properties. In the days after the announcement of the 2026 Grand Prix of Arlington, a promo for the Indianapolis 500 was on the Dallas Cowboys broadcast. An IndyCar show car was used during Fox's college football pregame show. These are minor things but a start. When NASCAR season begins, there should be more of the same. 

It will be interesting to see how NASCAR is used to promote IndyCar. For starters, there is less crossover, and this partnership comes at a changing time on the NASCAR media landscape. While the opening portions of the season will align, only five IndyCar races will take place during Fox's portion of the NASCAR schedule, as Fox's new contract with NASCAR only covers through the All-Star Race on May 18. They fell a year late on what would have been an incredible day of motorsports with the Indianapolis 500 and the Coca-Cola 600 taking place on the same network. Next year's Coca-Cola 600 will be the first NASCAR Cup race on Amazon Prime.

There is also less NASCAR that will be on Fox airwaves this spring. Outside of the Daytona 500 and the All-Star race, practice and qualifying will be on Amazon Prime during that time of the year. NASCAR's second division will be entirely on the CW and have no presence on Fox. The Truck Series is still there, but there will be fewer NASCAR windows for an IndyCar promo to fall in. If NASCAR viewers are scattered to the wind next year, they are not going to be seeing anywhere near as many possible IndyCar promos as they would have last year or at any point over the last decade.

Five races are not many, but that is more than none. However, as we saw with NBC, just because the same network has both series does not mean races will not be scheduled against one another. Fox has multiple sports properties. It doesn't just have IndyCar and NASCAR. In the springtime, it still has college basketball. It has spring football with the UFL. IndyCar and NASCAR aren't just working around each other but around all those other properties as well. What might seem obvious might not be practical in practice. 

We saw with NBC IndyCar races and NASCAR races occurring simultaneously on its family of networks, whether that be an IndyCar race starting at 2:00 p.m. on NBC and a NASCAR Cup race starting at 2:30 p.m. on USA or vice versa. IndyCar has the favorable spot of network Fox, but that doesn't mean a Cup race will not be happening at the same time on FS1. 

Time is finite. There are only one or two golden windows for viewership, and they are the same for all properties. The best time to show both races could be the same time. In that case, it is a real possibility we will see both series running simultaneously again, even if we think that doesn't make any sense.

We should also remember that NASCAR is NASCAR. IndyCar might have it in its contract that all of its races will be on Fox, but NASCAR still draws three times the average viewers. As much as people celebrate noon start times if it avoids going head-to-head with a Cup race, we have also seen noon starts not provide an increase in viewership and also see a decrease in attendance at the circuit. Look at the final few races held at Texas Motor Speedway when the local start time was 11:00 a.m. Look at what happened at the second race of the Iowa doubleheader last year. 

There will be favorable windows for IndyCar, but there also is a good chance there will be a weekend or two where scheduling is not putting IndyCar on a pedestal. That is a nature of the business and until IndyCar increases its average viewership significantly, it will take a few lumps along the way. 

Though there are five shared weekends, four see both series running on the same day. Those are March 2 (St. Petersburg/Austin), March 23 (Thermal/Homestead), April 13 (Long Beach/Bristol) and May 4 (Barber/Texas). The Grand Prix of Indianapolis takes place on May 10, a day before the Cup race from Kansas. There is a Truck race scheduled for May 10 from Kansas. 

If we are looking at the schedule and know how start times are historically assigned, there are probably going to be at least two if not three weekends where the two series will be happening simultaneously. Ten of the first 13 Fox Cup races this year had a 3:00 p.m. or 3:30 p.m. start time. That is problematic for Thermal and Long Beach, two IndyCar races that are likely not starting any earlier than 3:00 p.m. Even Barber usually has a slightly later start time in the Central Time Zone. 

Let's just keep this in mind now before we find out the actual start times. 

If there is anywhere this synergy will help it is the Indianapolis 500. The Indianapolis 500 will be promoted during NASCAR races. That hasn't happened pretty much ever. At least not since 2000 when ESPN and ABC broadcasted eight of the first 11 Cup races that season. While IndyCar and NASCAR had shared partners in ABC/ESPN and NBC, those were during the back half of the season. Fox has had a stranglehold on the first four-plus months of the Cup season since 2001, and until 2025 Fox hasn't had a reason to give the Indianapolis 500 the time of day. 

With the Coca-Cola 600 going to Prime, the Indianapolis 500 will be the final big race on network television on Memorial Day weekend. ABC/ESPN will broadcast the Monaco Grand Prix in the morning (and likely re-air it during the afternoon), but after the Indianapolis 500, there will not be the Coca-Cola 600 on Fox. I think there is understandable skepticism over how NASCAR will do on Prime. We have seen Thursday Night Football be a success for Prime, but the NFL and NASCAR are two different beasts. People flock to the NFL. NASCAR has had an aversion to streaming and its fanbase has not embraced it with open arms. 

There is a chance the Indianapolis 500 gets a boost because there is a portion of viewers who will not be able to watch the NASCAR race from Charlotte and they decide they will spend their afternoon watching Indianapolis before going out in the evening and forgo watching the NASCAR race altogether. 

However, the Indianapolis 500 is not the problem. IndyCar doesn't have an issue getting viewers for the Indianapolis 500. That is its only healthy race. We have seen a healthy Indianapolis 500 does not equal a healthy IndyCar Series, and that is where IndyCar needs to see a boost. IndyCar needs a significant increase everywhere else. A flat Indianapolis 500 rating with every other race getting double what the average is currently would be a massive success for the series. There might be some disappointed if the Indianapolis 500 does not get a better number, but IndyCar needs 16 races growing and one remaining stagnant versus one race marginally growing and 16 races remaining stagnant. 

That will take more than just having two or three promos during NASCAR broadcasts. Hopefully the series understands that. Once NASCAR is done with its Fox portion of the season, IndyCar is losing its pair of shoulders to stand on. There is Major League Baseball, but there isn't another property that gets you excited about promotion. Outside of the Super Bowl in February, there is going to be no NFL help. The UFL season ends before IndyCar reaches its halfway point. There is some soccer and the NHRA, but neither of those are going to be doing much for IndyCar. If there is any saving grace it is the 2025 season finale from Nashville falls on the opening weekend of the college football season, but at that point it will feel like too little too late. If you haven't watched any IndyCar to that point, you will need a damn good reason to start with the finale from a nondescript track 40 minutes outside the city it claims to be in.

This is stuff IndyCar will have to work through. It is natural stuff when it comes to a new relationship. It is not all sunshine and rainbows. No matter where you go and who you partner with, at some point you will need to work through some rough patches. It is best to acknowledge those now and limit the number of surprises later.

Champions From the Weekend

You know about Joey Logano, but did you know...

Justin Allgaier clinched the NASCAR Grand National Series championship with a runner-up finish at Phoenix, his first career championship.

Ty Majeski clinched the NASCAR Truck Series with a victory at Phoenix, his first career championship.

Sho Tsuboi clinched the Super Formula championship with a pair of runner-up finishes from Suzuka.

Winners From the Weekend

You know about a few champions, but did you know...

Riley Herbst won the Grand National Series race from Phoenix, his second victory of the season.

Kakunoshin Ohta swept the Super Formula races from Suzuka, his first two career victories.

Coming Up This Weekend

Supercars concludes at Adelaide.

The MotoGP title will be determined in Barcelona, a replacement venue for Valencia after the recent flooding in the area.

Career Retrospective: Mark Blundell

Our Career Retrospective series returns for a fourth year, as we have another batch of past IndyCar drivers to consider. We will look at a few drivers and how they ended up in IndyCar, what they did while competing in the series and how the series changed between the driver's first appearance and today. 

There is another theme in this year's set of drivers. It might not seem obvious, but it will become obvious once we get to the end.

The first part of this three-part series will be on a name who is tied to some famous IndyCar moments, but does not get considering as one of the best of his time. The talent was there and he made waves, but arriving during The Split, this driver did not receive the same exposure had there been one series. He also never raced in the Indianapolis 500. Though he did not light up the record books, he earned the respect of his fellow competitors.

It is Mark Blundell.

Where was Blundell coming from?

Blundell had already spent over a decade climbing the European ladder system, starting in his native United Kingdom. 

Using Formula Ford 2000 success to launch into Formula Three, he quickly was in International Formula 3000, but Blundell did not make a name for himself there. Results were not spectacular and he did not get a shot at Formula One. His big break came in sports cars.

Blundell joined the Nissan Motorsports program in the World SportsCar Championship. Results were good against the Sauber-Mercedes and Silk Cut Jaguar operations, and Blundell took pole position for the 1990 24 Hours of Le Mans, over six seconds clear of the next fastest car. Unfortunately, the Nissan R90CK could not go the distance and retired from the race. 

While running for Nissan, Brabham took on a testing role with Williams F1. For the 1991 season, Blundell co-opted his testing role with a race seat at Brabham. Teamed with Martin Brundle and strapped with a Yamaha engine, the entire team struggled for competitiveness. Blundell retired from nine of 16 races, did not qualify once and failed to pre-qualify for the Japanese Grand Prix. Blundell did score a point in the Belgian Grand Prix. Brundle only scored two points all season, both coming from fifth at Suzuka. 

Blundell was not retained for the 1992 season, and he stepped away from the Williams testing role to focus on getting a full-time seat. With no spot on the grid, he settled for a testing role at McLaren. He also joined Peugeot for the 24 Hours of Le Mans and won the race with Derek Warwick and Yannick Dalmas. 

After the sabbatical, Blundell was back in Formula One with Ligier in 1993 and he finished third in the season opener in South Africa. He was fifth in the next round in Brazil. He would finish third in the German Grand Prix and finished the season tenth in the championship. On a one-year deal, he moved to Tyrrell for 1994. He was third in the Spanish Grand Prix, but scored two fewer points than in 1993 and finished two spots worse in the championship.

Sponsorship issues led to Blundell's release from Tyrrell after 1994. In a fortunate break, McLaren came calling for the start of the 1995 season as Nigel Mansell did not fit in the car and could not run the first two races. Blundell also added a role in McLaren's Le Mans project with the F1 GTR. However, Mansell retired for good after two races with McLaren in the 1995 season. Blundell ran the remaining 13 races. He scored 13 points and finished tenth in the championship with his best result being fourth in Italy and Australia.

What did IndyCar look like when Blundell started in the series?

IndyCar was rather healthy. CART had a full grid with sponsors on every car and most a notable name. The series was more than competitive than ever, only a few years removed from Nigel Mansell coming off as World Drivers' Champion. 

CART was a fully international affair with a strong domestic spine. While it had the homegrown likes of Al Unser, Jr., Michael Andretti, Paul Tracy and Jacques Villeneuve, it still had Emerson Fittipaldi while Maurício Gugelmin, Stefan Johansson and Raul Boesel had made roots in the series. Even young drivers like Gil de Ferran and Christian Fittipaldi were finding homes in IndyCar. American Eddie Cheever was early into his second career after a decade in Formula One.

That international flavor was more than the drivers on the grid. Of the 16 races, four races took place outside the United States with trips to Brazil and Australia in March along with two separate trips to Canada. Due to the split, there were only six oval races, none of which were the Indianapolis 500. One of those oval races was in Brazil. There were four street course races and a race ant ann airport. The season began on March 3 and ended on September 8.

Blundell joined right as The Split started. 

The Indy Racing League was starting as a breakaway series to focus on developing American drivers and running on oval tracks. There were a number of opportunities created, but not for the likes of Blundell in mind. That did not stop Blundell from drawing interest from CART organizations. 

When Blundell was not retained by McLaren for the 1995 season and a deal with Sauber fell apart in the 11th hour, an chance to race in IndyCar presented itself. With guidance from Adrian Reynard, Blundell received an offer from PacWest Racing for the 1996 season with Gugelmin as his teammate. Blundell was in one of the 26 full-time entries.

How does IndyCar look now?

There were 27 full-time entries in the 2024 season, and the grid remains rather international. 

The domestic spine is still there but it is not as prominent as it once was. There were eight American drivers that competed in at least 70% of the races this past season. There were 11 different nationalities represented in the top 22 of the championship. 

IndyCar is also changing and looking a little more like CART. Ahead of the 2025 season, a charter system was announced that guarantees 25 entries spots on the grid for every race outside the Indianapolis 500. These 25 entries are the only ones eligible for the 22 Leader Circle spots, essentially a base payment determined by the championship finish from the previous year. Non-chartered teams are allowed to compete in races, but only two spots are available to non-chartered teams at every race outside the Indianapolis 500.

The 2024 season saw 17 races take place over 15 race weekends, 14 of which were run in the United States. There was also a non-championship round held at a country club racetrack in Southern California. Five ovals were on the schedule, two of which hosted doubleheader weekends. There were four street course races. The season began on March 3 and ended on September 15. 

In 2025, the season begins on March 2 and ends on August 31. There will again be five oval weekends, but only one of those will be a doubleheader. The non-championship round will become a full championship race. 

What did Blundell do in-between?

It was not a kind rookie season. Blundell broke his foot in Rio de Janiero and missed the next three races. He was back in time for the U.S. 500 from Michigan International Speedway. For his first 500-mile race, Blundell qualified 19th, the fourth-fastest of six rookies. Driving a rather smart race, Blundell finished fifth, one-lap down.

While he finished fifth at Belle Isle two races later, results were mixed. Blundell ended up 16th in the championship on 41 points, only 12 being teammate Gugelmin. Blundell was the second-best record, but 43 points behind Rookie of the Year Greg Moore.

The 1997 season did not start off with a swift change from the previous season, but he was knocking on the door of victory at Belle Isle only to run out of fuel on the final lap. After a devastating loss, Blundell bounced back with one of the most memorable victories in IndyCar history. On slick tires in Portland, while Gil de Ferran nursed a car home on wet-weather tires, Blundell chased down the Brazilian, erasing a 33-second gap in less than ten laps. 

With a damp track off-line, Blundell was cautious to make a move. He wait until off the final corner and it became a three-car drag race with de Ferran and Raul Boesel. Blundell got to the checkered flag 0.027 seconds ahead of de Ferran and 0.055 seconds ahead of Boesel. 

Portland sparked a second-half surge from Blundell. He won at Toronto two races later and was second in the U.S. 500. He ended the season with a runner-up finish at Laguna Seca and he won the inaugural Fontana race, a 500-miler that saw an intense battle with his teammate Gugelmin as well as Jimmy Vasser and Adrián Fernández. Blundell described Fontana as the best victory of his career. It placed him sixth in the championship on 115 points, two spots and 17 points behind Gugelmin as PacWest took fourth and sixth in the championship, sandwiching Team Penske's Paul Tracy and ahead of both Newman-Haas Racing entries.

Sadly, it was never as good as 1997 after that. Blundell spent the better part of the next three seasons in CART. A testing accident at Gateway caused him to miss eight races in the 1999 season. He never finished in the top five after his Fontana victory. His best result would be sixth at Fontana in 1998. Over his final three seasons, he scored a combined 63 points.

Blundell planned on returning for the 2001 season, but unsatisfied with the lack of personnel changes made heading into that season, he stepped away from the program. He was replaced by a rookie who competed in Indy Lights the year prior, a driver by the name of Scott Dixon.

What impression did Blundell leave on IndyCar?

Blundell is one of those names from the 1990s that remind you how good CART was at the time. Even during The Split, it attracted some top level talent, and after being shuffled around the Formula One grid and missing great opportunities, Blundell could showcase his talent. 

I don't think anyone mistakes Blundell as one of the greatest to ever race IndyCar, but he acclimated himself well to something foreign. His oval skills were incredible, and his ability in 500-mile races were far better than most. As much as we look back on losing the opportunity to see Greg Moore and Alex Zanardi compete in the Indianapolis 500, we also lost the chance to see Blundell run it, and he might have been the best suited for victory out of the three. 

Though he has not been regularly around IndyCar for nearly a quarter-century, Blundell has represented others who have competed in the series. His management company, 2MB Sports Management, has represented Mike Conway, Jordan King and Callum Ilott, three drivers who participated in IndyCar in the previous decade.  

He is more a cult icon in IndyCar circles than anything else. Blundell's success comes down to one season, and not even a full season, half of a season where he won three races. He and PacWest Racing all clicked at the same time, and for a brief moment in time it was one of the most competitive teams in CART. He had plenty of other good rounds, but PacWest did not have the might to remain with Team Penske, Newman-Haas Racing and Chip Ganassi Racing at the front. 

There is a little wonder of what could have been if Blundell had come to IndyCar at a younger age. He turned 30 early in his rookie season. There are not many 30-year-old rookies in IndyCar today. It isn’t rare. Romain Grosjean debuted well into his 30s and Jimmie Johnson was well over 40. Blundell left prior to turning 35 years old. There are not many drivers that willingly call it quits on IndyCar at 35 years old. When you consider his oval ability, he could have had a late-career surge had he been with a good team that switched to the Indy Racing League. If he had received the call to replace Greg Moore instead of Hélio Castroneves at Penske, I don't think he has four Indianapolis 500 victories, but I bet Blundell has at least one. He definitely has more than three career victories as well. 

It is good to have these drivers that you had to be there to see. Blundell got his moment to shine and we saw it at its brightest. If you just missed it, it doesn't seem like much, but it was fun while it lasted. These drivers come around once or twice in a generation. I am not sure who it is for those in the year 2024. Carlos Muñoz? Robert Wickens? Could it be Marcus Ericsson? Maybe we will know in a few more seasons. 

Blundell is not written in the history book for a great day in May or a championship run, but for a brief moment he captured our attention, and it was rightful deserved. 

Musings From the Weekend: They Are All Guilty

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

You know I had written something on IndyCar free agency and drivers on the market who have expressed interest about racing in IndyCar and how there are plenty of drivers out there who would make the grid better and while also helping attract viewers because these drivers have cult followings from a certain docuseries. 

But we cannot read that because NASCAR has another mess on its hand and it could be the end of the playoff era. There will likely be a regulations overhaul this winter after last night's events. Formula One had its own mountain of controversy this weekend and even that does not compare. It has now become a yearly occasion where controversy gets in the way of deciding the NASCAR Cup Series championship. 

NASCAR is not in the spotlight because of the competition. It isn't in the spotlight at all despite developing a system where winning is all that matters and the final races of the season become significantly more intense. Nobody is talking about the race winner Ryan Blaney, and nobody is celebrating who will be competing for the championship next week at Phoenix, like NASCAR wanted. Instead, we are in the muck of a dirty game wondering how to make it clean.

They Are All Guilty

With Ryan Blaney on his way to taking the checkered flag at Martinsville, it was clear the final spot in the championship four would be between William Byron and Christopher Bell. One driver was struggling on worn tires and the other driver was a lap down with only one spot ahead of him to gain, but half a track up the road. 

It came down to one point separating Byron and Bell. Byron could not lose a spot and Bell needed one more. It all collided on the final lap. 

With Byron struggling, the Chevrolets of Ross Chastain and Austin Dillon ran side-by-side behind Byron. Toyota's Bubba Wallace was the next car one-lap down and running slow on the outside of the track. Bell was driving to get that one final point. 

The final turn decided it. Byron was set to finish sixth and not lose any more points. Wallace was directly ahead of Bell and Bell made his move to the inside of turn three. Bell got ahead of Wallace but hit the wall in turn four in the process. Staying on the throttle, Bell did what he could to stay ahead of Wallace. He got off the wall before the start/finish line and ahead of Wallace, ending tied on points with Byron but with the tiebreaker provisionally placing Bell as the fourth finalist with a shot at the title in Phoenix. However, after Ross Chastain's move two years ago, NASCAR had implemented a rule banning drivers from riding the wall to gain positions. 

Nearly a half hour after the checkered flag was waved, NASCAR penalized Bell for his move, declaring it a safety violation. He lost four spots, four points and Byron was awarded the final championship spot. However, Byron was hardly a victim. 

While waiting for NASCAR's final decision on the results, scanner radio was played from Dillon's crew updating Dillon on Byron's playoff position and asking if Chastain's team was aware of the "deal" that was in place. Wallace had also received messages about Bell's peril of needing a point, and Wallace saying he thought he had a tire going down before being told to move to the outside of the track. 

Despite the final spot in the finale coming down to two drivers from two separate organizations, there were three other teams highly invested in the outcome and who made it to Phoenix.

Bell was penalized because there was a rule in place and it was interpreted he broke the rule. As much as Bell could argue it was different and he did not deliberately drive into the wall with in-car video showing him doing all he could to stay off the SAFER Barrier, he forced NASCAR to make a decision, and it was decided he had gone too far. 

However, the radio messages heard are not different from other radio comments that have received penalties previously. It was only two years ago Stewart-Haas Racing had mentioned to Cole Custer over the radio about Chase Briscoe needing a position in the final race of the second round from Charlotte's roval. Custer allowed Briscoe ahead and Briscoe advanced to the next round. In the aftermath, Custer was penalizes 50 points and crew chief Mike Shiplett was indefinitely suspended. Shiplett missed the remainder of the season and was reinstated on January 10, 2023. 

It was 11 years ago Clint Bowyer spun at Richmond in an attempt to help then-Michael Waltrip Racing teammate Martin Truex, Jr. make the playoffs. The comments and the deliberate spin led to points penalties to Bowyer and Truex, Jr., which took Truex, Jr. out of the playoffs despite Truex, Jr. knowing nothing of the incident. It also led to a $300,000 fine to the team and it led Napa Auto Parts to withdraw its sponsorship from MWR at the end of that season, forcing the team to contract one car and release Truex, Jr.

That moment at Richmond led to vigilance from NASCAR against race manipulation. It didn't want the credibility of its races questioned and it did not want teams and drivers actively trying to orchestrate a particular outcome. 

No matter how hard it tries, with the current playoff format, it is almost impossible to regulate. That is especially true when the manufacturers are involved.

It is pretty apparent Trackhouse's Ross Chastian and Richard Childress Racing's Austin Dillon were doing all they could to keep Hendrick Motorsports' William Byron from losing more positions. It is pretty apparent 23XI Racing's Bubba Wallace was looking out for Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell. 

NASCAR can deduct all the driver points and owner points it wants. It can raise the fines another $100,000 and effectively sentence crew chiefs to death, barring them from ever stepping foot in a garage again, but when the manufacturers are pulling the strings, nothing will change. 

Chevrolet deciding it will do all it can to guarantee a Chevrolet participant in the championship four can only be prevented if Chevrolet is penalized, but NASCAR would never punish a manufacturer. Teams will come and go. We saw that with Michael Waltrip Racing, but NASCAR cannot afford to lose a manufacturer. It is not going to issue a fine that would really hurt a partner. The last thing NASCAR can afford to do is scare away a company that supplies engines to nearly half the grid. As much as a $5 million fine or $10 million fine would send a message, it would also be business suicide and hurt the teams far more even if done for the integrity of competition. 

But that is the only way conceivable way to prevent what we saw last night at Martinsville. You can write all the rules in the world saying a team must "give 100%" and "must race honestly" and "cannot manipulate the result," but if there is an entity that is always above the rules, nothing will change. It will happen again. A few foot soldiers will be lost but a few more will be found for when the time comes to do it again. 

The little guy (whether that be crew chief, driver, or team owner) suffers while the major corporate gets off scot free. A tale as old as time. 

They are all guilty, but that does not make everything right. The problem is I don't know how this changes. Even without a playoff format, there would still be instances with drivers needing a point here or there. A full season championship makes it less likely to determine an outcome, but it is not entirely eliminated. I think we can all understand if the chance still exists but with this format it happens on a far more regular basis and it honestly exists at the end of every playoff round. 

Thirty-plus years ago, Hendrick Motorsports isn't pulling over for Dale Earnhardt and Richard Childress Racing. Junior Johnson isn't pulling over for Rusty Wallace and Team Penske or Davey Allison and Robert Yates Racing, but in the 21st century, manufacturer influence is far greater. 

These teams are more dependent on the manufacturers' for success. Teams cannot test every day it is not racing. There is virtually no practice time. Any improvement that can be made must come from wind tunnels or simulators. Guess who controls those resources? These are separate teams but there is pressure for them all to get along, and manufacturer favoritism has far greater sway in this world of limitations. That has been clear as day at Daytona and Talladega, as over the last decade the manufacturers will work almost exclusively together to put their cars at the front. It has now expanded to deciding who will run for a championship. 

NASCAR hasn't been good ole' competition for a long time. It has been a multi-billion dollar monster for the entire 21st century. These teams will do all they cannot to lose a dollar in support. When told jump, they will respond with, "How high?" They are no better than what you see in Formula One or the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters. When there is this much money at stake from the manufacturers, they get to call some shots, likely more than you wish. This is the deal everyone has made to survive. It isn't changing anytime soon.

It is going to come in play next week at Phoenix even if it is not as explicit as it was at Martinsville. There is no incentive for Stewart-Haas Racing or RFK Racing to win at Phoenix. Richard Childress Racing has nothing to gain from winning the finale. Even Joe Gibbs Racing has nothing to play for. For Ford, Chevrolet and Toyota, all that matters are the championship finalists. 

Ross Chastain might have won the finale last year for Trackhouse, but Ford's Ryan Blaney won the championship finishing second and directly ahead of fellow finalists Chevrolet's Kyle Larson and Chevrolet's William Byron. Anyone with a pulse knows Chevrolet didn't give a damn about Chastain winning that race, especially when it showed up to Phoenix as the only manufacturer with two bullets in the gun. 

Last year was a lesson, and it will not be repeated. We already know there is a plan in place coming from a much higher power. 

Champions From the Weekend

The #6 Porsche Penske Motorsport Porsche of Kévin Estre, André Lotterer and Laurens Vanthoor clinched the World Endurance Drivers' Championship with a tenth-place finish in the 8 Hours of Bahrain.

Toyota clinched the World Endurance Manufacturers' Championship with a victory in Bahrain, Toyota's sixth consecutive championship.

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Ryan Blaney, but did you know...

Max Verstappen won the Brazilian Grand Prix, his eighth victory of the season and it ended ten-race winless drought for Verstappen. Lando Norris won the sprint race.

Francesco Bagnaia won MotoGP's Malaysian Grand Prix, his tenth victory of the season. Jorge Martín won the sprint race. Celestino Vietti won the Moto2 race, his third victory of the season. David Alonso won the Moto3 race, his 13th victory of the season and his sixth consecutive victory.

The #8 Toyota of Sébastien Buemi, Brendon Hartley and Ryō Hirakawa won the 8 Hours of Bahrain. The #55 AF Corse Ferrari of François Heriau, Simon Mann and Alessio Rovera won in LMGT3.

Aric Almirola won the Grand National Series race, his third victory of the season. Christian Eckes won the Truck race, his fourth victory of the season.

The #36 TGR Team au TOM'S Sho Tsuboi and Kenta Yamashita won the Super GT race from Motegi. The #88 JLOC Lamborghini of Takashi Kogure and Yuya Motojima won in GT300.

Coming Up This Weekend

The NASCAR season finale from Phoenix. 

Super Formula ends its season with a doubleheader at Suzuka. Sho Tsuboi is up 14.5 points on Tadasuke Makino with 46 points left on the table. Tomoki Nojiri, Ayuma Iwasa, Nirei Fukuzumi and Kenta Yamahsita are also alive for the championship.