2025 NASCAR Predictions

We are into the final fortnight of 2024, and as we do in the final days of a year, we begin to look ahead to next year. As is custom, our predictions series begins with NASCAR, which may not be the most recent series to conclude, but it will be one of the first series back in 2025.

1. Team Penske will not have a driver make the final four in the Cup Series

How does a team follow up three consecutive Cup Series championship? By not even having a challenger for the title in the final race. That is right. Team Penske will be shut out of the championship four in 2025. 

For starters, Penske has been rather fortunate in the last two years to win the championship. In each of the last two seasons, the Penske champion has reset the record for fewest top five finishes for a champion in NASCAR's modern era. Joey Logano only scored the 12th most points this year. Too many things went right for Logano to claim the trophy at Phoenix. At some point, it will not work out. 

That will be in 2025. Not only was Penske's overall results a cause for concern, but the NASCAR Cup Series is deep. Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott were all on the outside of the championship four in 2024. That could be the final four in 2025. Perhaps Logano and Ryan Blaney fall out while Larson and a surprise Chase Briscoe makes a statement in his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing. Maybe Kyle Busch experiences a career revival and makes a run to the finale where he faces off with Elliott, Tyler Reddick and Chris Buescher for the cup. 

Penske is good, but at some point good will not be enough to have a title shot into the finale.

2. There will be at least two occasions where a driver wins consecutive races

In 2024, no driver in the NASCAR Cup Series won consecutive races. The Cup Series enters 2025 without seeing a driver with consecutive races in 46 consecutive races. The most recent driver with consecutive victories was Chris Buescher at Richmond and Michigan in 2023. 

How does NASCAR correct this? We will see a driver win consecutive races at least twice in 2025.

Where does the schedule set up for a driver to win consecutive races?

Are you going to rule out Kyle Larson winning at Las Vegas and Homestead in March? Or Homestead and Martinsville? Larson could very well win three consecutive races, and Darlington and Bristol follow that. He could win five straight! 

Why couldn't Denny Hamlin win the Coca-Cola 600 and then win at Nashville to make up for one that got away last season. 

Joey Logano has had success at Michigan, and Logano frequently wins debut races. He could follow a Michigan victory with victory in the inaugural NASCAR Cup race from Mexico City. 

Chicago and Sonoma are consecutive weekends. There are about nine drivers in the Cup Series that would not surprise you if they won consecutive road course races.

It will be at least twice, maybe even three times in 2025.

3. At least three non-playoff drivers in 2024 will have clinched a playoff spot within the first 13 races of 2025

It does feel like we see surprise winners early in a season. Take 2024 for example. Daniel Suárez and Brad Keselowski did not win a race in 2023 and both missed the playoffs. Both won within the first 13 races of 2024 and locked up a playoff spot. 

In 2023, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. won the Daytona 500, and Martin Truex, Jr., who had not won in 2022, won the 11th race at Dover. The 2022 season had Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe and Ross Chastain all picking up their first career victories within the first six races. 

Droughts end early and often in the NASCAR Cup Series, and I think 2025 will be the same. 

Notable non-playoff drivers from last year include Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace, Chastain and Kyle Busch. Throw in Shane van Gisbergen and A.J. Allmendinger, who both move up to the Cup Series full-time while combining the fact Circuit of the Americas in the third race of the season, and we could see some unfamiliar winners early in 2025. I think we see at least three.

4. Josh Berry will be the best sophomore driver in the championship

Carson Hocevar comfortably won the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Rookie of the Year. With 686 points in 21st, Hocevar was six spots and 107 points ahead of the next best rookie. That was Josh Berry. 

Hocevar remains with Spire Motorsports, which will see Michael McDowell and Justin Haley join that operation. Meanwhile, Berry moves from the closing Stewart-Haas Racing to Wood Brothers Racing.

Berry should be an upgrade over Harrison Burton. Berry might not win two or three races and pick up 15 top ten finishes, but he should be more competitive. Hocevar had a good end to the season. He had five top ten finishes and was third at Watkins Glen. Berry had four top ten finishes, which included a pair of third place results, but those all came within a six-race period.

The team change will raise Berry, and I don't know if Hocevar will even be the top Spire driver with new competition in-house. 

5. Kyle Larson will have at least one stretch with five consecutive top ten finishes

You may think you remember Larson's 2024 season very well. He led the Cup Series with six victories and missed out on the championship four, but was in the picture for making it to the finale for entire Martinsville race before Ryan Blaney pulled away. But you may forgetting some parts of Larson's season. 

In a 36-race season, Larson had only 18 top ten finishes, exactly half the races. Not bad, but not great either. Even less impressive when you noticed he had six finishes outside the top 30. He had ten finishes outside the top twenty in 2024. 

You may think for the greatest driver in the world, five consecutive top ten finishes is nothing, but it would be quite the achievement for Larson. In 2024, Larson never finished in the top ten in three consecutive races. On seven occasions he had back-to-back top ten results, but he never made it to three consecutive races. Larson hasn't had at least five consecutive top ten finishes since an eight-race top ten streak in 2021 from Darlington in May through Pocono in June. 

Larson will find some form and consistency in 2025.

6. Shane van Gisbergen will end the season with at least ten playoff points

Expectations might be set too high for van Gisbergen in his first full Cup Series season. He might have won on debut and three times as a rookie in NASCAR's second division, but the Cup Series is tough. Drivers do not waltz in and win a bunch of races.

Ten playoff points suggests van Gisbergen will win two races. With six road/street course races, it sets up nice for him. Two victories is not crazy, but he could fall short. He could win none. Consider Austin Cindric's road course success in the second level only to still be winless on road course in the Cup Series after three full seasons. I bet no one saw that coming at the start of 2022. 

This prediction also takes into consideration stage victories. Van Gisbergen might win a race with no stage victories and then win five elsewhere, whether that be at other road courses or because he did not stop before a stage caution. 

I don't think van Gisbergen is going to go six-for-six on the road and street courses. Two victories feels reasonable.

7. The finalists in NASCAR's in-season tournament will both be ranked in the top ten in points entering Indianapolis

The 2025 season will see NASCAR's first year of an in-season tournament. Over five races, the top 32 drivers will be a part of a single-elimination bracket that will determine a tournament champion based on head-to-head matchups. 

The first race will be at Atlanta in June before going to Chicago, Sonoma, Dover and finishing with the Brickyard 400 from Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 27. 

This is ripe for an odd final. Head-to-head can produce fluky results. Toss in the first three rounds being a drafting track, a street course and a road course, and we could see a crazy quadrant of semifinalists before we even get to the final. 

However, I believe the best in NASCAR will come out on top. There will be a few upsets early, but enough good drivers will survive and make the final reflect the actual talent in the series.

8. Front Row Motorsports will win no more than two pole positions

How many pole positions did Front Row Motorsports win last year? 

Six.

All with Michael McDowell.

All at the drafting tracks (Daytona, Talladega, Atlanta).

McDowell is gone, and no team is going to get that lucky again. As good as Todd Gilliland and Noah Gragson might be, six pole positions are a lot. There is no guarantee Front Row Motorsports will still have that advantage on these flat-out circuits. 

I will leave the door open that FRM will still be good and respectable, but they will not be as dominant as it was in qualifying last year.

9. At least one driver in NASCAR's second division will have at least five victories

In 2024, no driver in NASCAR's second division won five races. Austin Hill led the way with four victories. It was the first time a driver did not win at least five races in a season since 2003. 

That means somebody is going to win at least five races in 2025. There is a good collection of drivers competing in this series. Justin Allgaier is coming off his first career championship. Austin Hill is still around. Jesse Love had a good but not great rookie year. Haas Factory Team will run two cars for Sheldon Creed and Sam Mayer. Carson Kvapil, Connor Zilisch and Christian Eckes will all be rookies.

The field is good, but someone is winning five races, and that might be enough to claim the title.

10. Sheldon Creed will have more victories than runner-up finishes

Creed has gotten a bad rap for his inability to win. What is more stunning is Creed's ability to finish in second. 

In 102 starts in NASCAR's second division, Creed has 13 runner-up finishes. On three occasions has Creed finished runner-up in consecutive races. He had six runner-up results in 2024 alone. If he had finished one spot better in all of those races... well, if he had won seven times in his first two seasons Creed would have wound up full-time in Cup in 2024, but 13 wins in 102 races would be a 12.7% winning percentage and 12th all-time. Of course, Creed isn't there, but it hasn't been for a lack of trying. 

Remember, this prediction is not "Creed will win six races." It is Creed will finish first more than he finishes second. He could win once and have zero second-place finishes in 2025. He could win twice and finish second once. This is as much about Creed not finishing second as it is him winning. Six runner-up finishes will be tough to match. That number will come down. It will come down because some races he will finish first.

11. Corey Heim wins at least nine races in NASCAR national series competition

Speaking of winning percentage, Heim has won 17.1875% of his start in the NASCAR Truck Series. That is pretty good. Is it nine victories good? No. That success rate would only translate to 4.29 victories in the 2025 Truck season, but the truck field has gotten weaker.

Christian Eckes is gone. Nick Sanchez is gone. Taylor Gary is gone. Daniel Dye is gone. That is 40% of the playoff drivers from 2024, and two of those guys didn't even win a race. Eckes won four times. Sanchez won twice. Someone will have to win those races.

In the last three seasons, Heim has won two, four and six races respectively. He will have plenty of challengers. Champion Ty Majeski is still around. Grant Enfinger will figure into a race or two. Layne Riggs was coming on strong late in 2024. Rajah Caruth is back for a second season. Daniel Hemric could be competitive. 

Nine victories is a lot. Nobody has won nine races in a Truck season since Greg Biffle in 1999, but the Truck Series will also have 25 races in 2025, two more than last year. Plus, Heim could run some races in NASCAR's second series, and he looked strong at that level last year driving for Sam Hunt Racing. If anyone at Toyota had a brain, Heim would be in a Gibbs car on a part-time basis.

Heim might win nine Truck races on his own, but he could also win seven Truck races and two in the second division. Be prepared for Heim victories. 

12. One driver wins a race in all three national touring series

This one seems simple, and it is. Why this prediction? Because no driver won in all three series in 2024.

Four drivers won in two. Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott all won in the top two series. Ross Chastain won in Cup and Trucks. 

In 2023, Larson won in all three series. It didn't happen in 2022 either. Kyle Busch did it in 2021. Busch actually did it in nine consecutive seasons from 2013 to 2021, and he also did it in from 2005 to 2011. Kevin Harvick did it in 2012. Denny Hamlin also did it in 2011. 

It has happened at least once in 18 of the last 20 seasons. I don't know who will do it in 2025. The landscape has changed where we do not see many Cup drivers running in either of the other two national touring series with great regularity, but it will happen in 2025. 

It could be Kyle Larson, possibly it is Kyle Busch returning to his old form of dominating the lower series. Maybe it is someone completely out of nowhere (Connor Zilisch!). It will happen.

Speaking of will happen, more predictions will come next week as we wind down 2024 and gaze ahead to 2025.

2024 For the Love of Indy Awards

We have completed another year, and as we enter the final fortnight of 2024, we will use this time to wrap up the outstanding moments in motorsports. It was a year when a few generational talent shined brighter than others. A few unexpected heroes emerged. There were terrific races everywhere you turned, whether it be two wheels on dirt or on street courses carved out between the blinding lights of a metropolis. Some old names returned to the top while a few new names may have made their first steps toward greatness.

Now is the time to highlight the best that happened, from the competitors on track and what they did to the races, passes and moments that will remain in our minds even as we are months into 2025 and possibly even longer. 

Racer of the Year
Description: Given to the best racer over the course of 2024.
And the Nominees are:

Max Verstappen

Sho Tsuboi

Toprak Razgatlioglu

Francesco Bagnaia

Laurens Vanthoor

And the winner is... Toprak Razgatlioglu

Already a world champion, Razgatlioglu made the surprising decision to leave Yamaha for BMW ahead of the 2024 World Superbike season. In the previous three seasons, Razgatlioglu had finished first, second and second in the championship. BMW had one victory, a SuperPole race victory, in that time. Yet, Razgatlioglu made the decision to change his scenery in hopes of something greater. 

It proved to be a wise choice. 

Through the first two rounds, the Turkish rider had a pair of victories and he had four podium finishes from six races. It was the start of something good. From there, Razgatlioglu would go on to win 13 consecutive races, starting with the second full race from Assen through the second full race from Portimão. That covered four consecutive round sweeps for Razgatliolgu. He won eight out of a possible eight races from pole position over that span. The World Superbike championship was nearly wrapped up with five rounds remaining. 

However, there is always a chance for a turn in the script. At Magny-Cours, Razgatlioglu had a startling accident in Friday practice. He collided with the armco barrier and was clearly hurt. Everyone held their breath waiting for word on his condition. 

A back contusion was reported. Not good, but far from the worst it could have been. It did force Razgatlioglu to miss the round from France. He was still not fit for the next round two weeks later at Cremona. He was back for the antepentultimate round in Aragón. Any concern over whether or not the injury would slow Razgatlioglu was quickly erased. 

He was runner-up in all three races and championship rival Nicolò Bulega could not make up any ground. In Estoril, Razgatlioglu won the two full races and was second in the SuperPole race. What appeared could have been a championship lost was practically sealed before the Jerez season finale. To put the icing on the cake, Razgatlioglu finished the season with finishes of second, second and first.

At 28 years old, Razgalioglu is a two-time World Superbike champion. In six seasons, he has never finished worse than fifth in the championship. He had 18 victories this season alone. This lifted him to fourth all-time in World Superbike victories, only two behind Carl Fogarty for third. 

In what was a pivotal season for Razgatlioglu's career, he proved his ability after making an eyebrow raising decision to change manufacturers. We saw him at his best and he overcame unexpected adversity to win a well-deserved championship. 

On the other nominees:

It was another world championship season for Verstappen, as the Dutchman locked up his fourth consecutive championship. This one he clinched early like the two previous seasons, but it was different. He won seven of the first ten races, but in the second half of the season, Red Bull declined. McLaren and Ferrari rose to become the top two in the championship. Verstappen was able to pull out some impressive performances against some tough competition. He won two more grand prix and he ended the season with 21 consecutive points finishes.

Tsuboi completed the Japanese double, the second consecutive year a driver completed the sweep. In Super Formula, Tsuboi won the championship with three victories and seven podium finishes from nine races. He won the title by 30.5 points over Tomoki Nojiri. In Super GT, he defended his GT500 championship. For the second consecutive season, Tsuboi won three races, this year with co-driver Kenta Yamashita. The #36 TGR Team au TOM'S Toyota finished in the points of all eight races.

It did not end in a third consecutive championship, but Bagnaia's 2024 season was an outstanding performance. He won 11 grand prix, a personal best for him and it was the eighth time a rider won 11 races in a season. His 16 podium finishes were also a personal best. He score 498 points, 31 more than last season, but it was only enough for second this year in MotoGP, a valiant effort for a third consecutive title.

Vanthoor had a rather successful season as he was a member of the World Endurance Drivers' Champion winning Porsche team in the FIA World Endurance Championship. Along with Kévin Estre and André Lotterer, Vanthoor won twice in WEC and finished on the podium five times in eight races. Vanthoor's season also started with a victory in the Bathurst 12 Hour.

Past Winners
2012: Kyle Larson

2013: Marc Márquez
2014: Marc Márquez
2015: Nick Tandy
2016: Shane van Gisbergen
2017: Brendon Hartley
2018: Scott Dixon

2019: Marc Márquez

2020: Lewis Hamilton

2021: Kyle Larson

2022: Max Verstappen

2023: Max Verstappen

Race of the Year
Description: Best Race of 2024.
And the Nominees are:

São Paulo ePrix (March)

French motorcycle Grand Prix

Indianapolis 500

Rally Italia Sardegna

British Grand Prix

And the winner is... Indianapolis 500

IndyCar's biggest race suffered a massive setback before the cars could even line up on the grid. Rain put into question whether or not the race would occur on the scheduled date. It wasn't going to happen on time as the rain started just a little over an hour from the scheduled green flag time. However, the rain would clear and allow an Indianapolis 500 like we have never seen before, one that would go against sunset.

It was a race filled with motivated drivers. Team Penske swept the front row for the second time in its history. Scott McLaughlin was on pole position and he was positioned to cement himself as one of the best in the world. Will Power started second and was looking for his second Indianapolis 500 victory. Josef Newgarden had a shot to become the first driver to win consecutive Indianapolis 500s in 22 years. 

Behind them were three McLaren entries with a serious chance of winning between Alexander Rossi, Kyle Larson and Patricio O'Ward. Chip Ganassi Racing had all of its drivers starting outside the top ten, but there was belief Álex Palou and Scott Dixon could pull something off. Colton Herta felt confident in his car. A.J. Foyt Racing was ready to prove last year was not a fluke with Santino Ferrucci. Hélio Castroneves had another chance at a fifth "500" victory. 

It was a choppy start between accidents and mechanical issues, but in the second half, it was clear who the players would be. McLaughlin and Newgarden had been at the front with O'Ward not far behind. Rossi was in the picture. Dixon had climbed his way into contention. Palou was in the background and could not be counted out. 

The final restart came with 46 laps remaining. Everyone would need to make one more pit stop. McLaren was at the front, but Newgarden was lurking. After the final round of pit stops, it was set to be O'Ward vs. Rossi vs. Newgarden. Rossi's team was not sure it had gotten enough fuel in his car and he had to lay back. This set up O'Ward vs. Newgarden as we reach seven laps to go. 

O'Ward and Newgarden went back-and-forth in a breathtaking display of driving. Neither driver was giving an inch. In the final ten laps of the race, the lead changed five times. O'Ward took the lead from Newgarden at the end of lap 199. The Mexican was 2.5 miles from glory, but Newgarden did not gave up. Using the draft down the back straightaway, Newgarden had one final run into turn three. He made his move to the outside and it stuck. 

Newgarden had the lead and momentum heading to the checkered flag. O'Ward could not counter. Newgarden took the checkered flag at 7:42 p.m. local time, 0.3417 seconds ahead of O'Ward.

An incredible day saw Newgarden become the sixth driver to win consecutive Indianapolis 500s as the sun was near gone from the Speedway skyline. It had been a full day and we saw a finish worthy of the wait. 

On the other nominees:

In March, Formula E made its second visit to the streets of São Paulo, and it provided a lively race. Over the first 15 laps, the lead changed eight times. Passing was occurring all over the racetrack. Once the race enter the second half, Sam Bird held control and he and Mitch Evans pulled away. Evans took the lead on lap 28. Bird remained close and made a staggering move to take the lead. Bird would get to the line 0.564 seconds ahead of Evans. Meanwhile, the battle continued for third as Oliver Rowland was able to get ahead of Pascal Wehrlein and Jake Dennis for the final podium position.

The French Grand Prix has produced some memorable races the last few seasons for MotoGP. This year's race set the benchmark for what the 2024 season would be. Jorge Martín was on pole position, but Francesco Bagnaia took the lead from the jump, and it set up 27 fierce laps between Martín, Bagnaia and Marc Márquez, who charged from 13th on the grid. Mártin took the lead on lap 21. Mártin held on for victor as Márquez took second on the final lap. The lead was only greater than a half-second for one lap, lap 13. The top three were within a second for the final seven laps.

After 165.36 miles of competition, the 2024 Rally Italia Sardegna came down to 0.2 seconds, matching the closest rally in World Rally Championship history. Sébastien Ogier and Ott Tänak traded the rally lead over the first day, but Ogier took the lead in stage nine and carried the lead into Sunday. Tänak chipped away at the deficit over the final day. Entering the final stage, Ogier led by 6.2 seconds. Tänak ended up finishing second in the final stage, 2.4 seconds off the stage winner Thierry Neuville. Ogier wound up sixth, 8.8 seconds back, but he lost 6.4 seconds to Tänak allowing the Estonian to pull off an unthinkable victory.

At Silverstone, Mercedes came out in flying colors. Fresh off winning its first race at Austria when George Russell swept through after Max Verstappen and Lando Norris collided, the Silver Arrows swept the front row of the grid in Britain with Russell taking pole position and Lewis Hamilton in second. Russell led from the start and the opening portion of the race, but a rain shower saw Hamilton take the lead for a moment. The battle between Mercedes drivers allowed Lando Norris to drive into the lead a few laps later. On lap 34, Russell retired due to a water pressure issue. It felt like this was shaping to be Norris' day. With the track drying, Hamilton put on the soft compound tire on lap 39. Norris stopped a lap later but Hamilton was able to leapfrog ahead of the McLaren. Verstappen drove up to second and the Dutchman spent five laps chasing down Hamilton, but Hamilton held on for a popular victory that many wondered would ever happen again. 

Past Winners
2012: Indianapolis 500
2013: British motorcycle Grand Prix
2014: Bathurst 1000
2015: Australian motorcycle Grand Prix
2016: Spanish Grand Prix
2017: All the races at the World Superbike/World Supersport weekend at Phillip Island
2018: Petit Le Mans

2019: Honda 200 at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course

2020: Turkish Grand Prix

2021: Monaco ePrix

2022: British Grand Prix

2023: 12 Hours of Sebring

Achievement of the Year
Description: Best success by a driver, team, manufacture, etc.
And the Nominees are:

Formula One's Number of Multiple Winners

David Alonso's Moto3 Victories Record

Jorge Martín and Pramac Racing's first MotoGP championship for an independent team

Max Verstappen's Fourth Consecutive World Drivers' Championship

And the winner is... Jorge Martín and Pramac Racing's first MotoGP championship for an independent team

Never in the MotoGP era had an independent team and rider won the world championship. Until 2024 when Martín and Pramac Racing took the championship with a customer Ducati. Martín scored three grand prix victories, but in this contemporary MotoGP a championship can be won many different ways. In this case, it was through grand prix consistency, but it was also through sprint race success.

Martín had 16 podium finishes this season in grand prix. He ended the year with seven consecutive podium results. Combined with that was the Spaniard winning seven sprint races. He was on the podium in 16 sprint races! While Francesco Bagnaia led the way with 11 grand prix victories, Bagnaia failed to finish three grand prix and scored zero points. The Italian had only ten podium finishes in sprint races with seven sprint victories. Bagnaia failed to score in four sprint races while Martín failed to score in only two races.

The 2024 season was a thrashing for Ducati. It won 19 of 20 races with three of its four teams winning a race. For an independent team to dethrone the factory outlet with a bike as sensational as the Desmosedici GP24 is quite staggering. One would think the factory Ducati team would have led the way and had the independent teams riding its coattails. You could argue that was the case as the factory Ducati team won 13 times, but Martín and Pramac found a way to win this championship through maximizing points in what is now the sprint era of MotoGP. 

On the other nominees:

Seventy-five seasons is a long time, and never in Formula One history had seven drivers each won multiple times in a season. Until 2024. After two years of sheer Red Bull dominance, Formula One had seven drivers with at least two victories, starting with Max Verstappen, but McLaren had each of its drivers win twice. For both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, it was their first career victories. Ferrari saw Carlos Sainz, Jr. and Charles Leclerc each win multiple times, three victories for Leclerc and two for Sainz, Jr. Lewis Hamilton won twice after going over two years without a victory. George Russell won twice. It was a nice change to Formula One.

Expectations were high for David Alonso this Moto3 season. As a rookie, he won four times and was third in the championship last year. I don't think we anticipated this. Fourteen victories in the 20-race season. He scored 421 points and won the Moto3 title by 165 points over Daniel Holgado. Alonso clinched the title with four races to spare. The Colombian closed the season with seven consecutive victories. His victory in the Barcelona finale earned him the record for most victories in a Moto3 season. An incredible end to a remarkable season with all eyes focused on the 18-year-old's move to Moto2.

It may have been seen as inevitable, but winning four consecutive World Drivers' Championships is a rather tremendous accomplishment. Though Verstappen won this one with a few races to spare, it required him being cutthroat in the opening portion of the season, and then extracting more out of a race car that had fallen behind the competition in the second half of the season. Verstappen won this title, but his teammate Sergio Pérez was 285 points back in eighth. Pérez was on the podium in four of the first five races, and he was in the top five in each of the first six races. He then never finished in the top five again. Verstappen may have made this look easy, but he pulled out some incredible runs that few could likely replicate.

Past Winners
2012: DeltaWing
2013: Sebastian Vettel for winning nine consecutive races on his way to a fourth consecutive title
2014: Marc Márquez: Setting the record for most wins in a premier class season.
2015: Justin Wilson Memorial Family Auction
2016: Jimmie Johnson for his seventh NASCAR Cup championship
2017: Jonathan Rea: For becoming the first rider to win three consecutive World Superbike championships.
2018: Robert Wickens for winning IndyCar Rookie of the Year despite missing the final three races.

2019: Joe Gibbs Racing setting single-season record for most Cup victories by a in NASCAR's modern-era.

2020: Donald Davidson for 55 years of service to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway and the Indianapolis 500

2021: Team WRT's championship success across multiple series and disciplines

2022: Max Verstappen achieving the most grand prix victories in a single season

2023: Max Verstappen breaking the record for highest winning percentage in a Formula One Season

Moment of the Year
Description: The Most Memorable Moment in the World of Racing during the 2024 season.
And the Nominees are:

The Indianapolis 500 Post-Storm

Lewis Hamilton ends his winless drought

McLaren's team orders in the Hungarian Grand Prix

Marc Márquez ends his winless drought

NASCAR penalizing Christopher Bell at Martinsville

And the winner is... The Indianapolis 500 Post-Storm

It had been 17 years since the Indianapolis 500 had been significantly delayed due to weather. It had been 20 years since the race start had been delayed. The radar made it clear this would not be a minor inconvenience. The rain was set to be heavy for a few hours. The good news was the rain would clear in time for the middle of the afternoon. An Indianapolis 500 would take place on the scheduled date, but the party had been hampered. 

With any rain storm, it washes out the grandstands. Everyone must seek cover. In this case, the lightning forced the 300,000-plus spectators to seek shelter. With how long the wait would be until the green flag, it was expected that the grandstands would have some bare spots. Some people would accept the loss and head home. They could watch the race from their own living room and dry out after a soaking day out. 

When it was time for the race to begin at 4:44 p.m. local time, there wasn't an empty seat in the building. Everyone stayed. There is no better illustration to the importance of the Indianapolis 500 than that. IndyCar is not close to being the top motorsports series in the United States. The Indianapolis 500 is not close to being one of the top 50 most-watched sporting events every year. Many of the 300,000 spectators only attend and watch one IndyCar race a year. 

The Indianapolis 500 is set up for plenty of fans to leave early without feeling like they are missing much, and yet everyone stayed. That race means that much that people will stick around regardless of their interest in the NTT IndyCar Series. 

The fans staying was enough but then the race lived up to the wait and it turned what could have been a horrible experience into one of the most memorable Indianapolis 500 experiences in recent memory. 

On the other nominees:

For two-and-a-half seasons, Lewis Hamilton had come short of victory, and he appeared to be sliding further away from what was once a familiar spot on the top step of the podium. The 2024 season opened with Hamilton having already confirmed he would move to Ferrari for 2025. In the first 11 races, Hamilton had one podium finish. Mercedes had found something going into Silverstone, and it appeared the man on the other side of the garage would be Hamilton's largest obstacle for victory. When George Russell dropped out of the race, it was on Hamilton to beat Lando Norris and Max Verstappen. Though the thought could have been Hamilton might have lost it, he showed in the final half of that race that the magic was still there, leaping ahead of Norris and then keeping a charging Verstappen at bay. There was no better location for this release and relief to occur. Hamilton returned to the top at home in front of countless adoring fans. 

It would not be long for Formula One to have another memorable moment. Two weeks later, McLaren was on top at Hungary. Norris qualified on pole position with Piastri starting second. Piastri got the lead at the start and the Australian controlled the first half of the race. Piastri continued to lead until a decision to stop both McLaren drivers for the medium tire compound. Norris ended up coming out in the lead after the pit cycle. McLaren radio messages to Norris called for the Brit to allow Piastri back into the lead. With each passing lap, it became unclear if Norris would give back the position. On lap 68, Norris allowed Piastri through to lead the final three laps and take his first career victory. In its first 1-2 finish since 2021 and only the second in a decade, McLaren left in a tense state. It had maximized the points for the world constructors' championship, but it had an unhappy driver who believed he had a chance at a championship of his own.

The move to a Ducati customer team revived Márquez's career. It took him the first half of the season to get his legs under him, but Márquez was able to make the year-old Ducati a competitive machine. At the time of the summer break, he was third in the championship, but he had yet to win a grand prix. He was knocking on the door, and the moment came in Aragón. Márquez took pole position. Then he won the sprint race. In the grand prix, Márquez dominated and took his first victory since the 2021 Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix. 

With championship hopes on the line, the penultimate race of the NASCAR Cup Series season set up another controversial finish. Ryan Blaney pulled away to take victory and lock up one of the four championship-eligible spots in the Phoenix finale. The final spot would be down to William Byron and Christopher Bell. Bell was trapped a lap down and did not have any positions to gain. Byron was on worn tires and losing positions. Byron had dropped to sixth while Bell was 19th and needed one more points. Toyota driver Bubba Wallace started falling back and off the lead lap. Chevrolet drivers Ross Chastain and Austin Dillon lined up behind Byron, neither attempting to pass. On the final lap, Bell made a move on Wallace into turn three, but bounced off the wall in the process. At the checkered flag, Bell had the final championship four spot on tiebreaker. After over a half-hour of deliberations, NASCAR determined Be had illegally rode the wall to get the positions, and relegated him four spots, the worst finisher among those one-lap down. This knocked Bell out of the playoffs, but it also caused a stir over race manipulation and the playoff format.

Past Winners
2012: Alex Zanardi
2013: 24 Hours of Le Mans
2014: Post-race at the Charlotte and Texas Chase races.
2015: Matt Kenseth vs. Joey Logano
2016: Toyota Slows at Le Mans
2017: Fernando Alonso announcing his Indianapolis 500 ride
2018: Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson battle at Chicagoland

2019: Kyle Kaiser and Juncos Racing knocking out Fernando Alonso and McLaren and Penske Purchasing Hulman & Co.

2020: March 12-13

2021: The entire Formula One season

2022: Ross Chastain's final corner at Martinsville

2023: Shane van Gisbergen winning the NASCAR Cup race at the Chicago street course

Pass of the Year
Description: Best pass of 2024.
And the Nominees are:

Josef Newgarden on Patricio O'Ward for the lead on the final lap of the Indianapolis 500

Alexander Albon's double pass in the Canadian Grand Prix

Tadasuke Makino around the outside of Toshiki Oyu in turn five at Motegi

Colton Herta on Patricio O'Ward for the lead at Nashville

Renger van der Zande on Nick Tandy for the lead at Petit Le Mans

And the winner is... Josef Newgarden on Patricio O'Ward for the lead on the final lap of the Indianapolis 500

It was a move we have seen attempted many times before. The outside of turn three at Indianapolis Motor Speedway is not the best place to make a pass. It could work out. It more likely will not and it will more likely end in heartbreak for whoever is making the attempt. 

For Josef Newgarden, it was the last move he had in this year's Indianapolis 500. Patricio O'Ward had just taken the lead and was playing the greatest defense of his life. It was never going to be an easy move for Newgarden. Newgarden had to trust the car would have enough grip to make it work.

The tires were not that old, but they were far from their greatest strength to pull off a move on the outside. Entering the corner, Newgarden went for it. It was going to be checkers or wreckers, and it stuck. Newgarden pulled off the move and he sailed to the finish line to win his second consecutive Indianapolis 500.

On another day, it could have been the agony of defeat instead of the thrill of victory. It could have been a roll of the dice that came up snake eyes. In this case, Newgarden pulled off a move that will be remembered for many years to come. It is one of the best passes we have seen in Indianapolis 500 history. It is the stuff of dreams. A move on the outside on the final lap. It either work or it doesn't. There was no wondering "what if?" 

Newgarden brought the house down on his way to making history, and we will be seeing this pass for many years to come. 

On the other nominees:

The Canadian Grand Prix featured mixed conditions. As the track dried, a clear dry line formed, but there was no room to step out and make a pass without risking sliding off course. Entering the final chicane, Alexander Albon was drafting behind Daniel Ricciardo. Albon was able to step out of line and slide along Ricciardo. As he was braking into the final set of corners, Albon was catching Esteban Ocon. In quick time, Albon slid to the right in front of Ricciardo and this allowed Albon through on the inside of Ocon. Albon made it through ahead of both drivers and in a flash he was up two positions despite the tricky conditions he faced. 

Makino's pass on Oyu was one that took five corners to complete. Into turn one, Makino made a look up the inside on Oyu. This put Makino on the outside into turn two. Through turn three, Makino slip to the inside and the two remained side-by-side to the right-handed turn four. Something had to give, but both drivers remained side-by-side through the corner. Makino still had the outside into turn five, but he was able to carry more speed out of turn four and complete the pass on the outside. This was for second, but it set up Makino to chase down his teammate Kakunoshin Ohta, only to get the lead when Ohta spun due to a throttle issue coming to two laps to go. Makino wound up taking the victory that started with a daring pass about ten laps earlier.

The IndyCar finale from Nashville Superspeedway exceeded expectations. It help that there was a battle to the checkered flag as Colton Herta ran a different strategy and was chasing down Patricio O'Ward as the lap wound down. Herta was going to make a push, but O'Ward was going to prove to be a difficult driver to overtake. Passing was not impossible on the 1.333-mile concrete oval, but it was tricky. Herta had the speed, but he had to find the moment. It came at an unlikely time. Entering turn two with five laps remaining, the leaders caught the lapped car of Sting Ray Robb. O'Ward went high and Herta went low. It appeared Herta was about to run into the back of Robb, but Herta got his car to stick on the low line and he carried the speed down the back straightaway into turn three. Herta powered into the lead and never looked back, winning the season finale and stealing another one from O'Ward.

Road Atlanta has a number of places that test a driver's nerve. Throw in the darkness of a Petit Le Mans night, and there are many occasions where a driver will be faced to make a daring decision. In the closing minutes, in a Cadillac with electrical issues that already had a headlight out, Renger van der Zande was second but had a run on the Porsche of Nick Tandy into turn one. Not one shy to making a bold move, van der Zande threw his Cadillac up the inside and pulled off what was the pass for the victory. Van der Zande still had to battle the electrical gremlins, losing all his lights on multiple occasions over the final minutes, but the move on Tandy was crucial and it allowed Cadillac to cap off a tough season with a grand result.

Past Winners
2012: Simon Pagenaud at Baltimore
2013: Robert Wickens at Nürburgring and Peter Dempsey in the Freedom 100
2014: Ryan Blaney on Germán Quiroga
2015: Laurens Vanthoor from 4th to 2nd on the outside in the Bathurst 12 Hour
2016: Scott McLaughlin on Mark Winterbottom at Surfers Paradise
2017: Renger van der Zande: From second to first on Dane Cameron at Laguna Seca
2018: Alexander Rossi for all his passes in the Indianapolis 500

2019: Álex Rins on Marc Márquez in the final corner at Silverstone in the British motorcycle Grand Prix

2020: Pipo Derani on Ricky Taylor into turn one at Road Atlanta

2021: Shane van Gisbergen from fourth to second at Sandown

2022: Ross Chastain's final corner at Martinsville

2023: António Félix da Costa on Jean-Éric Vergne in turn eight of the final lap of the Cape Town ePrix

The Eric Idle Award
Description: "When You're Chewing on Life's Gristle, Don't Grumble, Give a Whistle, And This'll Help Things Turn Out For The Best, and...  Always Look On The Bright Side of Life."
And the Nominees are:

Théo Pourchaire

Kyle Larson

Esteban Ocon

Jaguar TCS Racing

Dane Cameron

And the winner is... Kyle Larson

It is difficult to tell the man who won six NASCAR Cup Series races, including the return of the Brickyard 400 as well as winning the Knoxville Nationals to look on the bright side, but the standout memory from Larson's 2024 season will be the one weekend that didn't go to plan. 

For the first time in a decade, a driver was attempting The Double, running the Indianapolis 500 and the Coca-Cola 600 in the same day. Larson had long been seen as the driver most capable of joining Tony Stewart as the drivers to complete 1,100 miles of racing in one day. It was even believed Larson could do better and score the best aggregate finish over the attempt, possibly winning one if not both races.

We knew Larson would be competitive in Charlotte, and the speed was impressive in Indianapolis. Expectations were high for what Larson could achieve. There was only one problem. The weather. 

The entire week leading into the Indianapolis 500 called for rain on race day. The closer we got to race day, the more we saw the storm was set to hit right at the start of the race. Any weather delay would disrupt Larson's plans to run both races in their entirety. Sure enough, at 11:00 am on Sunday, the rain was at the Speedway, and Larson was faced with the tough decision that left many wondering what would be decided for weeks. What would Larson do? Would he stay in Indianapolis or go to Charlotte and forgo attempting the "500?"

Larson stayed, but he knew he would be missing the start of the race in Charlotte, sacrificing points as he would not start the race. It was a good race for Larson, but a bogged down restart and a pit lane speeding penalty left Larson in 18th on debut. The Coca-Cola 600 was underway, but Larson could make it to become relief driver for Justin Allgaier. 

There was one final problem. That rainstorm that hit Indianapolis in the morning and early afternoon kept heading east. When Larson arrived in Charlotte, that storm was on the vicinity of Charlotte Motor Speedway. Larson was on the pit wall ready to enter the race when the rain began to fall and eventual caused the early end to NASCAR's longest race with Larson failing to complete a lap.

Memorial Day weekend could not have gone more against plans than the way it did for Larson in 2024. He will attempt The Double again in 2025, but this time will be different. It doesn't sound like sticking around in Indianapolis is an option.

On the other nominees:

Pourchaire started his season as a Sauber reserve driver who would run in Super Formula this season. When David Malukas' wrist injury kept him out for an extended period, it opened a spot for the Frenchman in IndyCar with McLaren, and Pourchaire had some good results. He looked settled and excited, and he was confirmed to finish out the season in June. Looking forward to Laguna Seca, news broke that Pourchaire would not see out the season and Nolan Siegel took over the #6 Chevrolet. It was a crushing end for a promising talent. 

After four seasons at Alpine, which saw a victory in the 2021 Hungarian Grand Prix, Ocon announced he would move to Haas for the 2025 season. It had been a trying season for Alpine, but a double podium finish at Interlagos with Ocon in second helped the French make finish sixth in the constructors' championship over Haas and the team formerly known as Toro Rosso. However, Ocon was unceremoniously removed from the team prior to the 2024 season finale from Abu Dhabi. 

Jaguar TCS Racing entered the Formula E finale weekend from London with the top two drivers in the championship. Jaguar had won four races and it had 12 podium finishes. It felt positive that either Nick Cassidy or Mitch Evans would leave London as championship. Instead, Porsche's Pascal Wehrlein went first and second in the doubleheader. Evans was second and third and fell six points shy of the German. Cassidy completed his disaster end to the season with a seventh and a retirement from pole position in the final race. Jaguar took the teams' championship and manufacturers' championship but those were hardly a satisfactory consolation prize.

A 24 Hours of Daytona victory? Check. A 6 Hours of the Glen victory? Check? Seven podium finishes and eighth top five finishes in nine IMSA starts? Check. An IMSA GTP championship? Check. What did that get Dane Cameron? A release from Porsche Penske Motorsport at the end of the season. This was Cameron's third championship in IMSA's top class with a third different manufacturer. Cameron and Nasr even won the Endurance Cup championship, but it was not enough for Cameron to keep a ride in IMSA's top class.

Past Winners
2012: Ben Spies
2013: Sam Hornish, Jr.
2014: Alexander Rossi
2015: McLaren
2016: Toyota

2017: Nick Heidfeld
2018: Brett Moffitt

2019: Dennis Lind

2020: Marc Márquez

2021: Liam Lawson

2022: Linus Lundqvist

2023: Eli Tomac

Comeback of the Year
Description: The Best Comeback in the 2024 season.
And the Nominees are:

Carlos Sainz, Jr.: Appendectomy to grand prix victory

Eli Tomac: From 16th to second at Arlington

Chase Sexton: From last to first in Hangtown

Toprak Razgatlioglu: From midseason injury to champion in World Superbike

And the winner is... Chase Sexton: From last to first in Hangtown

In the second round of the AMA Motocross championship, Chase Sexton won the first race from Hangtown, but in the second race, Sexton went down almost immediately and he was dead last on lap one. This wasn't 22nd in a Supercross round. This was 40th, but there was a half-hour racing to go. 

Never dispirited, Sexton put his head down and worked on passing one rider at a time. He picked his way through some slower competitors, but it would get tougher as he got closer to the top. With 20 minutes remaining, Sexton was eighth, but over 23 seconds off the lead. However, Sexton kept up a staggering pace and continued to move forward. 

With ten minutes remaining, he was 18 seconds back in sixth. With just over four minutes remaining, Sexton moved ahead of Hunter Lawrence for third and was ten seconds off the lead. Sexton took second from Justin Cooper was three laps to go, but Sexton was still five seconds behind Aaron Plessinger in the lead.

On the final lap, Sexton was 1.6 seconds off Plessinger, but the chase continued. Sexton had the energy to swing around on the outside of Plessinger and pull off an improbable victory, which would highlight Sexton's eventual championship season.

On the other nominees:

Not many drivers undergo surgery midseason these days. With the increase in races each Formula One season, it is tougher to find recovery time. In Saudi Arabia, Sainz, Jr. suffered an appendicitis and was forced out of the car for the second round of the season. There was 15 days between Saudi Arabia and the Australian Grand Prix, but Sainz, Jr. did not have the same preparations ahead of that race. Despite the change, the Spaniard qualified second. When Max Verstappen suffered brake issues, Sainz, Jr. swept into the lead and led the final 57 laps to lead a Ferrari 1-2.

Tomac went down early in the Supercross round from Arlington. He was battling for sixth but was sound 16th and 13 seconds off the lead. Over the final 25 laps, Tomac kept climbing up the order. He was into the top five on lap 18. He was third on lap 23. Jett Lawrence's issues in the closing laps allowed Tomac to take second and Tomac finished three seconds behind Cooper Webb.

The World Superbike championship was put in doubt when Toprak Razgatlioglu went down in practice from Magny-Cours and collided with the barrier. What looked to be a potentially devastating injury was a back contusion, but it kept Razgatlioglu out of the Magny-Cours round and the following round at Cremona. In the final three rounds, Razgatlioglu finished no worse than second. He won three more races, and he took his second championship when for a moment it appeared he may have lost it.

Past Winners
2013: Michael Shank Racing at the 24 Hours of Daytona
2014: Juan Pablo Montoya to IndyCar
2015: Kyle Busch
2016: Max Verstappen from 15th to 3rd in the final 18 laps in the wet in the Brazilian Grand Prix
2017: Kelvin van der Linde: From third to first after a botched pit stop in the final 20 minutes in the 24 Hours Nürburgring
2018: Billy Monger: Returning to racing after losing his legs and finishing sixth in the BRDC British Formula 3 Championship with four podium finishes and a pole position at Donington Park.

2019: MotoE: For getting to the grid after fire destroyed every motorcycle prior to the first round of the season

2020: The #7 Acura Team Penske: Coming from last in the championship to winning the IMSA DPi championship

2021: Kyle Busch's victory at Pocono

2022: Robert Wickens

2023: McLaren's 2023 Formula One Season

Most Improved
Description: Racer, Team or Manufacture Who Improved The Most from 2023 to 2024.
And the Nominees are:

Porsche 963: From good to great around the world

Winward Racing: From tenth on 2,562 points to first on 3,266 points with four victories in IMSA's GTD Class

Santino Ferrucci: From 19th on 214 point to ninth on 367 points with 12 top ten finishes in IndyCar

McLaren: From fourth on 302 points to first on 666 points in the World Constructors' Championship

BMW: From fourth on 224 points with no podium finishes to second on 606 points with 19 victories.

And the winner is... McLaren

It wasn't long ago where McLaren was one of the worst team on the Formula One grid after taking on Honda engines. In two of three seasons with Honda engines, McLaren ended up ninth in the constructors' championship. It went over five years between podium finishes. After a spell with Renault engines, a move to Mercedes saw strong results. 

McLaren won the 2021 Italian Grand Prix with Daniel Riccardo, its first victory in nearly nine years. Lando Norris saw a rise in competitiveness. Last season, the team turnaround a slow start to fourth in the constructors' championship on 302 points, its most since 2012. With the pace at the end of last season, it felt like McLaren was poised to a big gain in 2024. I don't know if anyone imagined a world championship. 

It wasn't the most blitzing of starts, but McLaren got its first victory of the season in the sixth round at Miami. It was the second race of a 14-race podium streak for the manufacturer, which would include additional victories in Hungary, Netherlands, Azerbaijan and Singapore. This form combined with Red Bull's downturn saw McLaren become the clear favorites for the constructors' championship. With a 1-4 finish in Azerbaijan, McLaren took the lead and never looked back. 

For the first time since 1998, the World Constructors' Championship trophy is going to Woking. 

On the other nominees:

Porsche had a year in sports cars. With the 963, Porsche won the IMSA GTP championship and the World Endurance Drivers' Championship. In 2023, the 963 won zero races in WEC. In 2024, it won three races, including with the Hertz Team Jota operation. In IMSA, Porsche increased its victory total to four, including a triumph in the 24 Hours of Daytona. 

Winward Racing has been a good team across the world of GT3 racing. Last year, it had an ok year in IMSA. It won, but it wasn't that much of a threat. In 2024, Winward manhandled the GTD class. It won the 24 Hours of Daytona and 12 Hours of Sebring. Phillip Ellis and Russell Ward would go on to win four of the first five races. The #57 Mercedes-AMG was on the podium six times in ten races, and Winward Racing took the GTD championship. 

Ferrucci has shown promise in his IndyCar career, but he had yet to put together a full season. Unexpectedly, he and A.J. Foyt Racing went from one good day to consistency the likes he and the team have not seen in a long time. This was the first time a Foyt driver finished in the top ten of the IndyCar championship in 22 years.

BMW might have signed one of the best riders in World Superbike, but one rider was not going to turn around the fortunes of the German manufacturer. Prior to 2024, BMW had one victory in the previous decade of World Superbike competition, and that was a SuperPole race. Its most recent full race victory was in 2013. In 2024, BMW won 19 races. It was second in the constructors' championship, its best finish since second in 2013. 

Past Winners
2012: Esteban Guerrieri
2013: Marco Andretti
2014: Chaz Mostert
2015: Graham Rahal
2016: Simon Pagenaud
2017: DJR Team Penske
2018: Gary Paffett

2019: Cooper Webb

2020: Joan Mir

2021: Francesco Bagnaia

2022: Scott McLaughlin

2023: Jorge Martín

And that will do it. Considering all the unexpected we saw in 2024, we must consider what could happen in 2025. For all that we expected from this year, there were many things we didn't see coming. A few things played out as we believed they would, but a number of things we did not have in our scripts. As much as we think we know what is coming, we truly don't have a clue and are open for a surprise. 

Enjoy these days of the holiday season. A new year will be here soon enough. Before we get their, we have some predictions and presents to pass out. 

2024 Formula One Predictions: Revisited

It isn't the longest season, but Formula One takes us the deepest in the year of the maor championships in the world. It still does not feel all that long ago the season was over in October and the holidays were months away. Now, the final checkered flag waves weeks away from the Christmas and the end of the year. All that is left to do is recap the season and put to bed the predictions made nearly a year ago.

1. The second Red Bull entry leads at least 200 laps

Wrong!

The thought was Red Bull would be good and its second entry would do better than it did in 2023. Instead, Sergio Pérez had a disaster of a season that may end his Formula One career. After leading 146 laps last year and leading 148 laps the year before that, Pérez led a grand total of... one lap over the entire 2024 season. 

If there is not a better encapsulation of this nosedive it is Pérez going from a regular podium finisher and someone who could pull off a few victories, to someone who wasn't even close and it felt like a fluke he even led a lap. 

The one lap Pérez led this season was lap 22 in the Italian Grand Prix. It was a race he finished eighth. Pérez's season with opened the sixth consecutive top five finishes. He did not finish in the top five in the final 18 races of the season.

2. There will be midseason driver changes at multiple teams

Correct!

After no driver changes from the final race of 2023 to the first race of 2024, it was almost a guarantee we would see somebody lose a seat midseason.

Technically, the first driver change was at Ferrari. Carlos Sainz, Jr. had appendicitis at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix and that forced him out of the car for the second race of the season. Oliver Bearman stepped in, but this prediction wasn't about a quick substitution for an injury or illness. This was about a permanent break from a driver.

That still happened at multiple teams. 

The first was Williams letting Logan Sargeant go after the Dutch Grand Prix. Franco Colapinto entered and ran the remainder of the season, scoring five points after Sargeant scored none, though Colapinto had his fair share of crash damage.

The second was at the team formerly known as Toro Rosso, where Daniel Ricciardo was released after the Singapore grand Prix with 12 points to his name. Liam Lawson returned to the grid and he scored four points over the final six races.

Bearman did return to replace Kevin Magnussen at Haas after Magnussen was suspended for penalty point accumulation, forcing the Dane out of the Azerbaijan race. Bearman also ran in place of Magnussen at Brazil when Magnussen was ill. 

The final change this season was at the final race. Jack Doohan drove at Alpine in place for Esteban Ocon. 

3. On at least one occasions will there be three consecutive different winners

Correct!

This was a good year for winners. It started with Max Verstappen winning five of the first seven races and seven of the first ten races. It felt like we were on for another dominant season, but the result swung in the second half of the season. 

While Verstappen was winning all those races, he never won three consecutively. After Verstappen won in Spain, the Mercedes-AMG drivers of George Russell and Lewis Hamilton won the next to races in Austria and Great Britain. Then Oscar Piastri followed it up with his first career grand prix victory in Hungary. Four consecutive winners, but wait, there is more. 

From Piastri's victory spawned another stretch of four consecutive winners. Hamilton, Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc won the three races after Hungary. 

But wait, there is more. 

Piastri's second career victory was in Azerbaijan. That led a run of six consecutive race winners. Norris won in Singapore, Leclerc won in the United States, Sainz, Jr. won in Mexico, Verstappen won in Brazil, and Russell won in Las Vegas.

This one was covered on multiple levels, and it is a good thing it was.

4. Each Williams car will score at least four points

Correct!

Alexander Albon had scored four points at the end of the British Grand Prix. He had a pair of ninths with he other coming in Monaco. Albon scored another ninth-place finish in Monza and he was seventh in Azerbaijan. That left the Thai driver with 12 points. 

As mentioned above, Colapinto joined the team at Monza. He scored four points with his eighth-place finish in Azerbaijan, and then he added another point for insurance with tenth in Austin. 

5. Fernando Alonso finishes at least five positions better than Lance Stroll in fewer than nine grand prix

Wrong!

This prediction was taking into account that Aston Martin would not be as good as last year, but Alonso would come down closer to Stroll's level and there would be better balance between the two drivers.

Alonso came down, but Stroll kept falling back as well.

Alonso was at least five position better than Stroll in nine grand prix!

Saudi Arabia: Alonso fifth, Stroll retired (19th).

Japan: Alonso sixth, Stroll 12th.

China: Alonso seventh, Stroll 15th. 

Miami: Alonso ninth, Stroll 17th.

Italy: Alonso 11th, Stroll 19th.

Azerbaijan: Alonso sixth, Stroll 19th.

Singapore: Alonso eighth, Stroll 14th.

Qatar: Alonso seventh, Stroll retired (18th)

Abu Dhabi: Alonso ninth, Stroll 14th.

This isn't even counting Brazil, where Stroll beached the car after sliding off course on the formation lap. 

But this one was correct on the road for about five seconds because Stroll was 12th in Abu Dhabi, however, he had a five-second penalty for exceeding track limits drop him to 14th, exactly five spots behind Alonso. If only Stroll could have kept it on the track, I would have had this one. That and if Oscar Piastri had not been spun and then hit Colapinto and all Piastri could do was finish tenth, one spot behind Alonso, kept this from being correct.

6. McLaren will score more than 29 points in at least six grand prix

Correct!

This season was far greater than even our greatest expectations for McLaren. Did anyone truly believe McLaren would win the World Constructors' Championship? Honestly? We expected a good year, a more competitive year, but did we expect the unfortunate 666 points and 14 more than Ferrari!? While Red Bull ended up 77 points behind in third? I don't think anyone can honestly say they had that. 

I can honestly say that I had McLaren scoring 29 points or more in at least six grand prix, but not including sprint race points. This is just taking into consideration grand prix results. When a team wins six races, it is easy to exceed 29 points.

Imola - 30 points (second and fourth)

Monaco - 30 points (second and fourth)

Hungary - 43 points (first and second)

Netherlands - 38 points (first and fourth with fastest lap)

Italy - 34 points (second and third with fastest lap)

Azerbaijan - 38 points (first and fourth with fastest lap)

Singapore - 40 points (first and third)

That is seven races with at least 29 points. It is kind of surprising that in two of its victories that did not see 29 points scored. In Miami, Norris won but Piastri was 13th and outside the points. In the Abu Dhabi finale, Norris won but Piastri was tenth and the total was only 26 points. There were at least two other better days to make up for those. 

You would have thought the constructors' champions would have scored 29 points or more in half the races, but this was closer to be wrong than when I starting going over the numbers.

7. The gap between sixth and seventh in the constructors' championship will be less than 40 points

Correct!

Alpine took the surprise sixth spot in the constructors' championship on 65 points. Thirty-three of those points came in the Brazilian Grand Prix when the changing conditions and timely red flag allowed Esteban Ocon to finish second and Pierre Gasly to finish third. That was the difference between sixth and eighth in the constructors' championship.

In seventh was Haas with 46 points. Haas scored points in 13 races with three double points days, and the team's best finish was sixth on two occasions. 

That gap between Alpine and Haas was seven points. Even if Alpine did not score 33 points in Brazil, we would have been looking at a 12-point margin between Haas in sixth and the team formerly known as Toro Rosso in seventh. We had this covered. 

8. Charles Leclerc will finish eighth in at least two races

Wrong!

This was very specific, but it didn't happen because Leclerc was damn fine this season. Leclerc had a points-paying finish in 21 of 24 races. He scored points in 22 of 24 rounds (sprint points in Austria). Every points finish for Leclerc was a top five finish. Twenty-one top five finishes was the most in the 2024 season!

Verstappen had 19 top five finishes and Norris had 18. Credit to Leclerc, which I don't think he was properly getting until late in the season. He didn't finish eighth because he was constantly running better than eighth. Through now 147 career starts, Leclerc remains on four eighth-place finishes in his career.

9. Max Verstappen will be in sole possession of fourth all-time in podium finishes by the conclusion of the British Grand Prix

Correct!

 

For this one to be correct, Verstappen needed at least nine podium finishes in the first 12 races with Fernando Alonso scoring zero podium finishes. If Alonso got one, Verstappen needed ten in the first 12 races. 

Alonso held his end of the bargain and he had no podium finishes in the first 12 races. Alonso had no podium finishes over the entire season. 

Verstappen scored his ninth podium finish in the British Grand Prix, moving him to fourth all-time on 107 podium finishes, putting him ahead of Alain Prost and Alonso. Verstappen ended 2024 on 112 points finishes, ten behind equaling Sebastian Vettel for third.

10. Somebody knocks Alain Prost out of the top ten for oldest pole-sitter in Formula One history

Wrong!

This came down to either Alonso or Lewis Hamilton winning a pole position in 2024. That didn't happen. Alonso's best starting position was third in China. His only other top five start was fourth in Saudi Arabia. Hamilton started second at Silverstone, 0.171 seconds off his teammate George Russell's pole-winning time. 

We were less than two-tenths of a second from getting this one correct. Oof.

11. Yuki Tsunoda will have fewer 11th-place finishes than in 2023

Correct!

In 2023, Tsunoda had three 11th-place classifications in the first five races (and four in six races dating to the 2022 season finale) and it became a running joke that Tsunoda always finishes 11th... even though he didn't finish 11th again over the final 17 races of 2023.

How many 11th-place finishes did Tsunoda have in 2024? 

Zero! 

So the man who always finishes 11th has not finished 11th in 41 consecutive races. In 87 career starts, Tsunoda has four 11th place finishes. Tsunoda has finished tenth in ten races in his career. He has more seventh place finishes and ninth place finishes (five each) than 11th place finishes.

Just keep that in mind.

12. Haas will exceed 12 points before Formula One's second visit to the United States

Correct!

This was a good year for Haas. It was regularly in the points and the cars had better qualifying pace. It was a slower start though. Haas had five points in the first ten races. In Austria, Haas scored 12 points in that race alone. A sixth at Silverstone the following week added another eight points to the total. 

Halfway through the season, Haas was up to 25 points, and there were six races until the second visit to the United States in Austin. By the time Haas rolled into Texas, it had 29 points, just over double the prediction. 

Eight out of 12! That is what you hope for. That is two-thirds correct. Pretty good. Not great but far from bad. You are bound to get a few wrong. I would argue you got to get a few wrong. It at least shows you are taking risks in your predictions. 

Speaking of predictions, stay tuned! More are just around the corner as we inch closer to 2025.

Musings From the Weekend: Last Things Last

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

The Formula One season concluded with a Lando Norris victory clinching McLaren's first World Constructors' Championship since 1998. Red was too common a color in São Paulo. There was a photo finish in Sepang. All that was needed to determine the Super GT GT500 championship was qualifying at Suzuka. Some 24 Hours of Daytona seats were confirmed. Colton Herta will drive with CrowdStrike Racing by APR in LMP2. Kevin Magnussen is going to be a BMW driver in WEC, but we don't know if he will be at Daytona. Andy Lally's final race will be the 24 Hours of Daytona. Genesis confirmed its LMDh program due for 2026 with André Lotterer and Pipo Derani as its first drivers. Dreyer & Reinbold Racing confirmed its 2025 Indianapolis 500 lineup. Toyota is exiting the NHRA after 2025. However, this is our final Musings From the Weekend of the year, and there is a project I had to close out this year. The topic is quite fitting for the last Musings from the year.

Last Things Last

When the IndyCar season ended in September and we were going over some tidbits from the 2024 season, there was one area that caught my eye. Last place.

At that time, I wondered how many drivers had finished last place in a race and then won the next one. This was after Josef Newgarden was last place at Milwaukee and I thought he had a good chance of winning at Nashville. The answer was 30.

However, I was not done with last place data.

Last place is an unofficial status. There is no tracking in the record book. It exists, but no one is counting. Everybody understands what it means to win, and everyone understands what it means to finish last. Nobody wants it. Somebody has to get it. 

But last place is not as simple as being the worst. Last place can be a good day gone bad. It can be an unexpected mechanical issue or being caught in someone else's mess. It is less likely that the worst driver in the race finishes last than the best driver finishes first.

Last place is also a little vague. There is no hard and fast position for last. Some races recognized in the IndyCar record book featured fewer than ten cars. A fifth-place finish could have been last. There was a time when 20th was last. Today, it varied between 27th and 28th in most races. At Indianapolis, it is 33rd, but it was once 42nd. One day, a finish is better than last. The next, it is last. 

When going over last place finishes for tidbits, I decided to do my best to come up with a comprehensive collection of last place statistics from IndyCar with the records available. We can name who has the most victories, most pole positions and so on, but we don't have official numbers of most last place finishes, and highest last place finish percentage. This is my attempt to provide some answers. 

Where do we begin? Why not the most? I am sure you are wondering, "Who has the most last place finishes in IndyCar history, and how many?" 

Before we get there, it should be noted that 702 drivers have finished last in an IndyCar race. For comparison, 299 drivers have won an IndyCar race. Last place is much more inviting than first. Let's face it, it is easier to be last than first. If well more than double the total of drivers have finished last, that suggests we are not going to see some high number as the all-time record. While A.J. Foyt leads with 67 victories, the most last place finishes will likely not be close to that. 

It isn't. 

So who is the all-time leader? Why don't I give you the top ten, which is actually 11 drivers?

1. Paul Tracy - 18 

2. Marco Andretti - 16

3. Takuma Sato - 16

4. Bobby Unser - 14

5. Lloyd Ruby - 13

6. Graham Rahal - 13

7. Rodger Ward - 12

8. George Snider - 12

9. Raul Boesel - 12

10. Buddy Lazier - 12

11. Tony Kanaan - 12

As you can see, last place is not exclusive for the worst drivers. 

Of the drivers with at least 12 last place finishes, over half were champions (George Snider included). Five are Indianapolis 500 winners. 

Paul Tracy was not the worst IndyCar driver ever... but he was surely one of the most aggressive, and that likely played into him having 18 last place finishes. Bobby Unser was not the worst IndyCar driver ever... but he too was aggressive and he pushed equipment harder than most. 

For as much flak as Marco Andretti gets, he too was not the worst IndyCar driver ever. He wasn't the best either, but he was not immune from pushing it or suffering a mechanical issue. 

Takuma Sato will forever be known for going beyond the limit, sometimes to a fault. It is not surprising he is tied for second-most last place finishes in IndyCar history, but Sato is again not one of the worst IndyCar drivers ever. 

This is a collection of the some of the most aggressive drivers in IndyCar history, and those who were not afraid to giving it all and then some. This is also a group of some of the most experienced drivers ever and that is a factor as well.

Six of the 11 drivers made at least 200 starts. Boesel made 199. Snider had the fewest starts at 142. The more you start, the more likely you are going to have some last place finishes. Tracy has the most last place finishes but his last place finish percentage is 6.405%. That is between Roberto Moreno's 6.4% (eight last place finishes in 125 starts) and Arnie Knepper's 6.5789% (five last place finishes in 76 starts). Tracy's winning percentage was 11.032%. For all the times he finished last, Tracy won almost double that amount.

(In case you were wondering, a total of 20 drivers have at least ten last place finishes. This includes Dario Franchitti with 11, and then Johnny Parsons, Mike Mosley, Spike Gehlhausen, Ed Carpenter, Hélio Castroneves,  Ryan Hunter-Reay, Scott Dixon and Sébastien Bourdais all tied on ten).

Totals aside, what about percentage? 

Fifty-three drivers have finished last place in every one of their IndyCar starts. For 52 drivers, they only made one IndyCar start. 

I am not going to list all 53 drivers who only finished last in their careers, but I will give you the one driver that made multiple starts and finished last each time. As you may guess, that driver only made two IndyCar starts. The good news is if you make at least three starts, you are guaranteed not going to finish last in at least one of them.

The one driver was Jerry Kubik. Kubik's only two starts came in 1947. He was last in the final two races of the season, 18th at Springfield and 14th at Arlington Downs.

Who was the most recent driver to finish last in his only IndyCar start? I am going to give you the last two, because they have happened more recently than you realize. Though one should not surprise you.

The most recent was Jean Alesi. Alesi's only IndyCar start was in an ill-fated Lotus in the 2012 Indianapolis 500. One of one two Lotus-engined cars in the race, Alesi's Fan Force United Lotus was classified in 33rd-place, last, but Alesi got last after a penalty. He was docked two laps for not immediately coming in when he and Simona de Silvestro in the other Lotus were black-flagged from the race after only ten laps. 

So technically, Alesi was classified in last, but he wasn't last on the road.

You don't have to go back much further for the next most recent last place finisher in his only IndyCar start. 

Coincidentally, it came in the last race at Twin Ring Motegi in 2011. Running the road course at Motegi after earthquake damage made the oval unsuitable, João Paulo de Oliveira, a champion in Formula Nippon and race winner in Super GT, was entered in one of Conquest Racing's entries. De Oliveira qualified 12th at a circuit he won at earlier in the year and he had won twice in the last two years. 

However, a fuel pump failed the Brazilian after 19 laps and his only IndyCar start was a last place finish. De Oliveira would go on to win at Motegi the following year in Super Formula and he won again at the circuit in 2014. Those were two of the six additional victories he would achieve in his Super Formula career post-2011. In Super GT, he won the GT300 championship in 2020 and 2022. His 2020 title included a victory at Motegi. 

However, it requires more than just one or two starts to really have the worst last place percentage, but where do you set the limit?

I am going to set two levels, 20 starts and 50 starts. 

With 20 starts, you at least started a full season worth of IndyCar races. Even that doesn't seem like enough, but it is a fair number of races. What does the top ten (which will be 11 again for good reason) look like? 

1. Dale Coyne - 26.47% (9/34)

2. Dan Clarke - 25.925% (7/27)

3. Cliff Hucul - 25% (6/24)

4. Johnny Aitken - 21.739% (5/23)

5. Art Klein - 20% (9/45)

6. Carlos Huertas - 19.047% (4/21)

7. Steve Chassey - 18.367% (9/49)

8. Milka Duno - 16.279% (7/43)

9. Joe Saldana - 15.789% (6/38)

10. Spencer Wishart - 15.384% (4/26)

11. Ira Vail - 15.217% (7/46)

These are the 11 drivers with a last place percentage over 15% with at least 20 career starts. 

This is a little more representative in terms of driver ability. I would not have guess Dale Coyne would top this list, but it is almost fitting it is him. I saw everyone of Dan Clarke's starts and I knew he had his bad days. I didn't realize how many their were in such a short period of time until I gathered the information. 

However, this too is not a barometer for the worst drivers in IndyCar history. Johnny Aitken is fourth having finished last in 21.739% of his starts. Johnny Aitken also won 26.086% of his starts. In nearly half the races in his career, Aitken either finished first or last. Aitken also raced during a time period where he was fourth and that was last place. In another race he was tenth and that was last. In another race he finished last and was sixth. 

Aitken also has the distinction of finishing last and first in the same race. In the 1916 American Grand Prize held on the Santa Monica road course, Aitken's Peugeot fell out of the race after completing only one lap. He was classified in last, 21st. Aitken drove the final 28 laps in relief for teammate Howdy Wilcox and he brought the #26 Peugeot home in first, over six minutes ahead of Earl Cooper. 

Twenty starts is a fair number, but maybe not the most fair. Fifty starts is a few seasons. That is basically three full seasons in contemporary IndyCar. For some drivers, 50 starts was a career and even then some guys didn't even hit that milestone. Ted Horn didn't make it to 50 career starts. Neither did Wilbur Shaw, Mauri Rose or Louis Meyer. Those three barely made it over 30. 

What do the numbers for last place percentage look like for those with at least 50 starts? In this case, you will only get ten drivers.

1. Spike Gehlhausen - 12.658% (10/79)

2. Ralph Liguori - 12.307% (8/65)

3. Mario Moraes - 12% (6/50)

4. Salt Walther - 10.9375% (7/64)

5. Bennett Hill - 10.606% (7/66)

6. Rex Mays - 10.526% (6/57)

7. Jerry Grant - 9.615% (5/52)

8. Jerry Karl - 9.589% (7/73)

9. A.J. Foyt IV - 9.523% (8/84)

10. Johnny Parsons - 9.433% (10/106)

These are the ten drivers who finished last place in more than 9% of their career starts, minimum 50 starts. 

It should come as no surprise that two of the 20 drivers with at least ten last place finishes are listed here. Gehlhausen does have one of the toughest career records in IndyCar history. He also has the worst average finish in Indianapolis 500 history among drivers with at least five career starts (26.4).

There is another quirk in this top ten like the one of drivers with at least 20 starts. Rex Mays did finish last in 10.526% of this starts, but he also won 14.035% of his starts. It was a different time. 

Going back to what started this exercise a few months ago, how many drivers have finished first after finishing last, but what about the reverse? How many drivers have finished last after finishing first?

The answer is 40, and I will not list them all for the sake of not turning this into a 3,000 word dissertation. When was the most recent one? Well... it is tied with the most recent time a driver has gone from last to first. 

In 2019, Will Power won at Pocono. Power was then the first car out of the race at Gateway the following week. A week after last at Gateway, Power won at Portland. The last time a driver went from last to first immediately followed the last time a driver went from first to last, all in a three-race span. 

Power's three-race rollercoaster ride is one of seven occasions in IndyCar history where a driver went first-last-first. These I will list. 

1.  Billy Arnold

First in the Indianapolis 500 on May 30, 1930. 

Last (14th) at the Michigan State Fairgrounds on June 9, 1930.

First at Altoona Speedway on June 14, 1930.

2. Rex Mays

First at in the Langhorne 100 on June 30, 1946.

Last (11th) at Lakewood Speedway in Atlanta on September 2, 1946.

First in the Indianapolis 100 at the Indiana State Fairgrounds on September 15, 1946.

3. A.J. Foyt 

First in the Ted Horn Memorial from DuQuoin on September 4, 1961.

Last (18th) at Syracuse on September 9, 1961.

Won the Hoosier Hundred at the Indiana State Fairgrounds on September 16, 1961.

4. Rodger Ward

First in the Hoosier Hundred from the Indiana State Fairgrounds on September 14, 1963.

Last (26th) at Trenton on September 22, 1963.

First at Sacramento on October 27, 1963.

5. Michael Andretti

First at Portland on June 24, 1990.

Last (25th) at Cleveland on July 8, 1990. 

First at the Meadowlands on July 15, 1990.

6. Dario Franchitti

First at Montreal on August 25, 2002.

Last (18th) at Denver on September 1, 2002.

First at Rockingham on September 14, 2002.

7. Will Power

First at Pocono on August 18, 2019.

Last (22nd) at Gateway on August 24, 2019.

First at Portland on September 1, 2019.

In case you are wondering, "Has any driver gone last-first-last?" 

The answer to that is nobody. 

There remains some things we have yet to see in IndyCar history. Perhaps one day it happens, though I don't think any driver would like to experience the yo-yo of results from low to high to back to low. The first driver to have a crack at it will be Felix Rosenqvist. 

There was one other thing that crossed my mind.

Which driver has made the most starts without having a last place finish? I will tease you by saying the answer may surprise you. 

Every driver who is somebody has finished last at some point. Mario Andretti did it eight times. A.J. Foyt nine times. Only two drivers with at least 200 starts had fewer than five last place finishes in a career. Simon Pagenaud had four in 207 starts. Rick Mears had three in 203 starts. It is bound to happen once. Except for one driver. 

Going over the numbers, there is a driver who made over 100 starts and never finished in last place. 

It is Danica Patrick! In 116 starts, she never finished in last place. She did have a remarkably consistent career, and does hold the record for most consecutive races finished. But she had a few accidents and a few bad days, none of which however saw her complete the fewest number of laps. 

Who is next closest? It is an active driver. In 89 starts, Patricio O'Ward has yet to finish in last. 

I am sure there are more ways to pick at the last place data, but I am leaving 2024 providing more than you likely knew and more than anyone else has likely documented. What does it mean? Nothing, other than there is more information on something that will not change the world. It is fun to have but rather insignificant. It doesn't change that it can be seen as fun.

Champions From the Weekend

You know about McLaren, but did you know...

Gabriel Bortoleto clinched the Formula Two championship with a pair of runner-up finishes in Abu Dhabi.

The #36 TGR Team au TOM'S Toyota of Sho Tsuboi and Kenta Yamashita clinched the Super GT GT500 championship with pole position for the season finale from Suzuka. The #36 Toyota went on to win the finale as well.

The #88 JLOC Lamborghini of Takashi Kogure and Yuya Motojima clinched the Super GT GT300 championship with victory in Suzuka.

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Lando Norris and the Super GT finale, but did you know...

Mitch Evans won the São Paulo ePrix after starting in dead last.

Pepe Martí (sprint) and Joshua Dürksen (feature) split the Formula Two races from Abu Dhabi. 

The #30 RD Limited Oreca-Gibson of Tristan Vautier, James Allen and Fred Poordad won the first 4 Hours of Sepang. The #35 Ultimate Ligier-Nissan of Stéphane Lémeret, Matteo Quintarelli and Bence Válint won in LMP3. The #57 Car Guy Racing Ferrari of Esteban Masson, Daniel Serra and Yudai Uchida won in GT.

The #25 Algarve Pro Racing Oreca-Gibson of Malthe Jakobsen, Michael Jensen and Valerio Rinicella won the second 4 Hours of Sepang, a shortened race due to weather. The #35 Ultimate Ligier-Nissan swept the weekend in LMP3. The #81 Winward Racing Mercedes-AMG of Jules Gounon, Gabriele Piana and Rinat Salikhov won in GT.

Coming Up This Weekend

Well... nothing from what I can see on my calendar. I am sure there is something, but the next few weeks are open in my book. 

Christmas shopping.

Cutting down a Christmas tree.

Time with family.

Writing. 

How does that sound?