We have made it to the final day of 2024. The year is over. Whether it was a good year or a bad year has already been decided and cannot really be changed. We had 366 days this year. Day 366 is not going to be the difference. With that said, it is our final chance to look ahead to 2025 before we get into 2025. Four sets of predictions are complete. We end with IndyCar, as the series is about to enter a new dynamic and television partnership.
1. Will Power has at least two pole positions and on multiple track disciplines
For the first time since 2005, we had an IndyCar season where Will Power did not win a pole position. It was not for a lack of trying. Power started second in four races and he started inside the top five in 11 of 17 races. He started in every position in the top five except first. Power will enter 2025 on a 22-race pole position drought.
At some point in 2025, that drought will end. In 19 full seasons of IndyCar competition, Power has won at least two pole positions 14 times. He has won at least four pole positions in ten seasons. Power will get back on track and he will also do it on multiple track disciplines.
Five of his six most recent pole positions have been on ovals, and four of those have been at Iowa. He has not won pole position for a street course race since the 2020 season finale at St. Petersburg. Some of these trends will change. Power could win on all three disciplines. He will win on at least two in 2025.
2. Josef Newgarden will not have consecutive finishes outside the top 20
Since August 2023, Newgarden has not been able to completely escape a funk. Entering the second race on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course that season, Newgarden was second in the championship, 84 points behind Álex Palou with four races remaining in the season. Then he got caught in an opening lap incident with Marcus Armstrong, got trapped a lap down and finished 25th, and Newgarden hasn't been the same since.
In the following race, Newgarden hit the wall in Gateway and finished 25th. At Laguna Seca, he was caught in an opening lap incident and trudged along to finish 21st.
The bad run of form could not be shaken in 2024. Along with the disqualification at St. Petersburg that classified him in 26th, Newgarden had five races where he finished outside the top twenty. At the Milwaukee doubleheader, he spun out while running second and battling Marcus Ericsson, and in the second race Newgarden was hit from behind at the waved off start, ending his race before it really began.
In the last 21 races, Newgarden has finished outside the top twenty in eight of them, and on three occasions has he had consecutive finishes outside the top twenty. In his first 111 races with Team Penske, he had only finished outside the top twenty in four races. He finished inside the top twenty in his first 65 races with the team.
Newgarden famously (or infamously?) used the offseason prior to 2024 to refocus on driving to achieve better results. That didn't work, but he will have another chance to correct course before 2025. Some results a driver cannot control. You cannot control if you will be run over at the start of a race or if an engineer has entered the wrong code for the push-to-pass system, but Newgarden will avoid the ruts has been falling in for the better part of the last season-and-a-half. He will get back to more of who he was from 2017 through 2022.
3. Álex Palou will have consecutive finishes outside the top 20
While Newgarden has been going through a rough spell, Álex Palou has won the championship the last two seasons and has been almost untouchable during that time.
In 2023, he did not finish worse than eighth and he won five times with ten podium finishes. In 2024, he only won twice times and only had seven podium finishes, but he had 13 top five results. No one has kept up with Palou's consistency and that has been the key to his last two championships.
We did see Palou look human in 2024. He got trapped when Newgarden spun at Detroit and that cost him a good result, relegating him to 16th. Palou spun on his own at Iowa and finished 23rd. The car had a battery issue on the pace laps for the second Milwaukee race and Palou salvaged a 19th-place finish. With Will Power caught many laps down after his seatbelt issue in Nashville, Palou did not push it and could settle with an 11th-place finish to clinch the title.
With those last two results, Palou will enter 2025 with consecutive results outside the top ten for the first time since August 2021. For a man who has a knack for making history, he is going to make more in 2025.
How many times has Palou finished outside the top twenty in consecutive races in his IndyCar career?
The answer is zero! It has never happened. Despite finishing 23rd on debut, Palou had never had consecutive races where he was in the bottom-third of the field whether that because of his own mistake, lack of speed or mechanical gremlins. In his first 81 starts, Palou has finished outside the top twenty in six races. Three of those came in his rookie season with Dale Coyne Racing.
Palou is going to remain consistent and quick. He will win multiple races and he will be in the discussion, if not leading the discussion, for the championship into the final race, but if Josef Newgarden can fall into a rut and Scott Dixon, who had three finishes outside the top twenty in 2024, can fall into a rut, Palou can fall into a rut as well. It might not be for long, but any time in a rut is long enough.
We are due for Palou having a few hands go against him and having some extra work to control the championship.
4. Colton Herta will end the year with enough FIA Super License points
Aren't you tired hearing about Colton Herta and Super License points? I am!
For nearly four years now, the biggest topic of conversation around Herta has been his lack of Super License points and it preventing him from getting a shot at Formula One, whether that be with the Andretti-led Cadillac program or with possibly Red Bull's junior team. Herta has ben a few short the entire time, and the only way to get Super License points is through results. Results were not Herta's strong point there for a few seasons.
While he was third and fifth in the 2020 and 2021 IndyCar seasons, Herta followed that with a pair of tenth-place championship finishes. Only the top ten IndyCar championship finishers earn Super License points, and tenth only pays a point. A driver needs a combined 40 points over the previous three seasons to qualify for a Super License. A combined two points over two seasons will not get you there.
The good news for Herta is he woke up in 2024 and finished second in the championship, earning him 30 points. He will be dropping a point for his tenth in the 2022 season, but that leaves him with 31 points, needing only nine to qualify for a Super License. The problem is the points become hard to get very quickly.
While the champion gets 40 and second gets 30. If you finish fourth, you only get ten. If you finish fifth, you only get eight. Herta could be fifth in the championship and be a point short of a Super License. What could work in Herta's favor is a driver can earn a single Super License point if he completed at least 100km in a Formula One free practice session during a grand prix weekend, and a driver can earn up to ten points through free practice.
Theoretically, Herta could finish fifth in the championship and then run a free practice at Austin with a team and that will get him to the 40-point threshold.
I think Herta will finish inside the top four in the championship and not need the practice session. He is coming off his best season in IndyCar and Andretti Global is a more-focused organization. Herta was successful on all circuit disciplines. He picked up his first oval victory of his career. He can finish in the top four of the championship and not need to do backflips to secure Super License qualification.
5. Scott Dixon will win a race from pole position
We are accustomed to Dixon winning races. He has won at least one race in 20 consecutive seasons. He is second all-time in victories with 58. Last season was the 18th time in Dixon's career where he won multiple races in a season. Winning is an expectation for Dixon every season.
What we should not expect from Dixon is pole positions.
The New Zealander has gone two consecutive seasons without a pole position, and he has not won a pole position in five of the last seven seasons. Only twice has he won a pole position over the last 115 races. In that same time frame, Dixon has won 17 races. Only Josef Newgarden has won more in that timeframe. For a man who commonly finishes first, it is uncommon to see Dixon start first.
Life is a number's game, and with someone has talent as Dixon, he will eventually win another pole position. It will click on setup and timing and Dixon will nail a lap to put him on top, but this prediction goes a step further. Not only will Dixon win a pole position, but he will turn that into a race victory.
Dixon has not won a race from pole position since Watkins Glen in 2016. To give you an idea how long ago that was, Dixon hit the 40-victory milestone with that result. He has won 18 times since! Of those 18 victories since he last won from pole position, Dixon has won from outside the top ten in four races and he has won from outside a top five starting spot ten times in that span!
It has been eight years. We are due for Dixon to qualify first at a race and then make it look easy over a two-hour drive.
6. There will be a first-time winner with at least 50 career starts
Fifty starts is a good indicator of what a driver's career will look like. In contemporary IndyCar, three full seasons get you 51 starts. That is a good point where we find out how the rest of the grid views you. Are you seen as someone that a team must have or will you be someone who will always need funding to get on the grid?
When it comes to winning, 50 starts is a pivotal point in time. Of the 299 recognized race winners in IndyCar history, only 28 drivers took 50 starts or more to get their first career victory. Of those 28 drivers, nine of them only won once in their careers. Only six of those drivers won more than five races in their career, and only two of them won at least ten races. Five of those 28 drivers won a championship.
The 50 career start milestone is a pretty good barometer for what affect a driver will have on IndyCar.
It has been a while though since we had a truly veteran driver score a first career victory. The most recent first-time winner with over 50 career starts was Josef Newgarden at Barber Motorsports Park in 2015. There was a period where we saw these type of first-time winners with greater regularity. Much of that had to do with The Split, but for us to be going on nine years without a first-time winner with at least 50 starts is a bit of a surprise. Like many predictions for 2025, we are due.
Who could fulfill this prediction?
Of the announced drivers for the 2025 season, the driver with the most starts without a victory is Conor Daly. Daly has made 115 starts and he has yet to win a race. He is set to become the driver with the third-most starts before a first career victory and he could be the driver with the most starts before a first victory if he does not win one of the first 14 races.
Daly has shown good form on ovals, but he will be with Juncos Hollinger Racing. While Daly and JHR did combine for a runner-up result in Milwaukee, they will have some work to do to beat the entire IndyCar field.
Jack Harvey only has the Indianapolis 500 confirmed with Dreyer & Reinbold Racing. Harvey has 93 starts so he fits the criteria.
Santino Ferrucci has 77 career starts and no victories. Ferrucci has been in the picture late in the Indianapolis 500 the last few years, and like Daly, Ferrucci has had strong runs on ovals. From what we saw in 2024, it would not be all that surprising if Ferrucci were to win at Iowa or Milwaukee. He is the only driver to have six top ten finishes in his first six Indianapolis 500 starts. The Speedway isn't out of the question either.
The only other driver with more than 50 starts but no victories that is somewhat in consideration is Romain Grosjean. Grosjean does not have a seat for 2025 at the moment, but he has made 64 starts. Dale Coyne Racing is the only team with open seats. Grosjean nearly won multiple races with Coyne in 2021. He arguably should have won once that year. If a reunion is in order, maybe we see a breakthrough.
Those are the four drivers who would automatically fulfill the prediction. There are a few drivers just short of 50 starts that could do it but they cannot win too soon in 2025.
David Malukas has 44 starts and no victories to his name. Callum Ilott could not win until the 12th race, the second Iowa race, to qualify for this prediction. Devlin DeFrancesco and Sting Ray Robb could not win until the penultimate race at Milwaukee.
If we are being honest with ourselves, this prediction is saying one of Daly, Ferrucci, Malukas or Grosjean, if he gets a ride, will win in 2025.
7. There will not be consecutive races where the opening lap is under caution
This wasn't really noted during the 2024 IndyCar season, but on reflection it was surprising to notice. A lot of races didn't make it through lap one this past season.
There were seven races in 2024 that had an opening lap incident. Then there was Long Beach, which saw the first lap take place under caution, and Mid-Ohio, which started under caution due to Scott Dixon's car stopping on the final pace laps. Nine races in 2024 did not see the first lap completed under green flag conditions.
There was a three-race stretch that covered the Indianapolis 500, Detroit and Road America where there was an opening lap incident. Mid-Ohio and the first Iowa race saw another pair of consecutive races without a first lap completed under green flag conditions.
One, I think IndyCar will see a correction and we will not have as many races with opening lap incidents as we did in 2024. Two, if this does happen, I don't think they will be in consecutive races. It might be alternating races, like we saw from the first Iowa race through the second Milwaukee race, but it will not be as common in 2025 to the point we have are expecting the first lap incident.
8. Marcus Ericsson will finish in the top nine of oval points
Ericsson's first season with Andretti Global was likely not as strong as he hoped for. Not all of that was his own making. There were some growing pains, and that set Ericsson back after having finished sixth in the championship for three consecutive seasons. He dropped down to 15th, his worst championship finish since he was 17th in his rookie season in 2019.
Part of the problem were Ericsson's oval results. In seven oval races, Ericsson finished outside the top twenty in five of them. He was caught in the opening lap accident of the Indianapolis 500 when Tom Blomqvist spun. An air gun problem set him back in the second Iowa race and trapped him two laps down. He had engine issues at Gateway. There was the aforementioned accident with Newgarden in Milwaukee. His season ended when he brushed the barrier with about 70 laps remaining in Nashville.
With that combination of results, Ericsson was 21st in oval points with only 81 points to his name. In the previous two seasons, Ericsson finished second in oval points and sixth in oval points with 224 points and 143 points respectively.
I don't think Ericsson will hit whammies like he was in 2024 on ovals again in 2025. We know what he can do. At his best, he should finish in the top third of drivers on ovals. He should get back to that status in the new season.
9. The Thermal Club race will have at least 150 total passes
IndyCar's first visit to The Thermal Club outside of Palm Springs, California did not receive much fanfare. For starters, there weren't that many fans to begin with, but the non-championship race with a prize that was only half of what was promoted was met with disdain almost immediately and throughout the entire weekend. In 2025, Thermal Club will host a proper championship race.
Passing was a concern with the non-championship round and we saw two rather lackluster heat races, the second of which registered no passes for position. The final race was not much better, but the first half of the race saw some drivers laying back in hopes of making a rush forward in the final ten laps on less-worn tires.
That strategy did provide for a lively second-half, as Colton Hera drove up to fourth.
Between the three parts and 38 laps of the non-championship round there were only 39 total passes, not brilliant, but we did see high-tire wear over a course of a stint, and that could play well for a full race around Thermal like we will see in 2025.
It might not be a spectacular race, but Thermal could be more competitive than everyone expects. It might not change the perception of the race, but it could still be something respectable.
In the six IndyCar races held on permanent road courses in 2024, the average number of total passes in those races was 276 with a median of 279.5. Only one race featured fewer than 150 passes. Mid-Ohio had 116.
There are still concerns about the Thermal layout and what kind of racing it allows, but if the tire wear remains high and you combined it with a race distance between 200 and 215 miles, which adds fuel strategy, we are not going to see a complete procession for two hours.
10. Among the 11 full-time teams, Prema will finish at least eighth in total top ten finishes
Prema is entering IndyCar and increasing the number of full-time organizations in the series to 11. For its debut lineup, Prema is bringing a mix of experience and the unknown. Callum Ilott, a veteran of 38 IndyCar starts, will lead the team, while Robert Shwartzman, a Formula Three champion, Formula Two vice-champion and FIA World Endurance Championship race winner, will be a new addition to the series.
At time of writing, Prema has yet to participate in a test as an IndyCar team. We do not know where Prema falls among the existing teams. Ilott has been a good driver in IndyCar, usually running in mid-pack equipment. Shwartzman was a promising prospect and was a member of the Ferrari Driver Academy.
Last year in IndyCar, ten teams scored at least one top ten finish. Only one of those teams was a part-timer (Dreyer & Reinbold Racing at Indianapolis). Dale Coyne Racing was the only full-time team without a top ten finish.
Finishing eighth out of 11 full-time teams does not sound like accomplishing much, but every IndyCar team is capable of getting good results on a given day. While five teams exceeded ten top ten finishes during the 2024 season, the other four full-time teams finished with either nine top ten finishes or eight top ten finishes.
If Prema can enter IndyCar and score eight or nine top ten finishes, I think that must be considered a good year, especially since it would likely not finish last among teams in total top ten finishes. If Prema were to break ten top ten finishes in a season, it would put the organization in the top half of the grid.
There will likely be a few tough outings, but Prema has the drivers to put together some respectable days. Ilott was getting top five finishes at Juncos Hollinger Racing. Shwartzman will be learning, but we have seen Christian Lundgaard enter and become a contender early. Marcus Armstrong, a past teammate of Shwartzman's, has been quick and scored good results. If it clicks, Shwartzman could pull out some impressive results.
Looking at the rest of the grid and knowing the struggles teams have had, I think Prema can score more top ten finishes than Coyne, Juncos Hollinger Racing and Ed Carpenter Racing. It could even edge out Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing.
11. There will be a change to the IndyCar practice structure
This is factoring in the new television contract with Fox, which says all practice sessions will be broadcasted on FS1 or FS2. This is a big change for IndyCar, as previously no practice sessions were on cable television. Every session was available on Peacock, and the openness of streaming allowed IndyCar practice to be IndyCar practice without the broadcaster dictating how the session was run.
IndyCar practice could be 45 minutes with a 20-minute delay in the middle due to a red flag. Peacock was not beholden to a time window. If there was a 30-minute delay during the session, Peacock could show all 75 minutes. If IndyCar wanted to try a new practice structure, like it did in 2024, where every car will get 45 minutes of practice time but it took place over a 70-minute window, that works for Peacock.
With FS1 or FS2, those cable channels have timeslots. Something will be following an IndyCar practice session. If it is one of FS1's many talk shows, FS1 isn't going to hang with IndyCar for an extra ten or 15 minutes for practice. Television windows are not accommodating to 75-minute sessions. It is also less likely IndyCar will be given 90 minutes for practice. Anything within 60 minutes is good.
I expect in the weeks leading up to St. Petersburg an announcement about practice changing, even if only minor, to every session being a 45-minute session and it will be an all-skate, which will clutter the racetrack and annoy some teams, but this is what is necessary with this new television deal.
I would also not be surprised if qualifying is tweaked for road and street courses because road and street course qualifying has usually taken about 70-75 minutes to complete without any issues. IndyCar might get a 90-minute television window for qualifying, but I also believe Fox will likely want that in a tidy 60-minute window, especially if it is leading into a baseball game on a Saturday.
Be prepared for changes.
12. At least one race outside the Indianapolis 500 will have a car fail to qualify
With the introduction of the charter system to IndyCar, there will be a cap on number of starters at every race on the 2025 calendar.
The 25 charter entries will all be guaranteed a spot in every race outside of the Indianapolis 500. Every race besides the Indianapolis 500 will be limited to 27 starters. With 27 full-time entries anticipated, every race is at full capacity before we even get into the season. If any team wishes to field an additional entry or if a new team looks to run an IndyCar race, the non-chartered entries will all compete for those final two spots.
Prema's two entries are currently the only non-chartered teams entering the races outside the Indianapolis 500. As long as no one else shows up, Prema will be safe. If one additional entries appears then Prema will be at risk of an entry missing a race.
Last season saw one race feature 28 starters besides the Indianapolis 500. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing entered a fourth car at Portland.
As much as everyone believes that no team will field an additional car outside of Indianapolis, if there is enough money and interest, an additional entry can form for a race. I don't think the big teams will do it, but I believe at one race and additional entry will form and there will be a case of 28 cars with 27 available starts.
This is IndyCar after all. There is bound to be one weekend where everyone will feel uncomfortable about a car missing the Gateway race or Laguna Seca race.
