2026 Supercross Preview

Early January brings another Supercross season to kick off the motorsports year. Ahead of us are 17 rounds over 18 weekends, and the championship has been shaken up since the 2025 season finale. A handful of notable riders have switched manufacturers, and there is even a new make in the starting gates.

Last year was notable for the number of top riders who had season end prematurely due to injury. With a number of top riders healthy, results should be mixed up from what occurred in 2025, however, one key contender is sidelined, and it leaves the door open for others.

Supercross is still on the verge of history. With four different champions in the last four seasons, we could still see something that has not occurred since the 1980s: Five different champions in five years. Yamaha and Honda have split the last four championships. Yamaha is attempting to win consecutive titles for the first time since 2008-09.

Schedule

Anaheim hosts another season opener and leads off a trio of California races to begin the season. From the Anaheim opener on January 10, the series will move to San Diego on January 17 before returning for the second Anaheim event on January 24.

The first venture out of the Golden State will be on January 31 to Houston, and Houston is the first Triple Crown event of the season. Glendale will be on February 7 before and early trip to Seattle the following week. Supercross returns to Texas for the Arlington round on February 21. Daytona Bike Week closes out the shortest month with the Supercross round on February 28.

The season passes the midway point on March 7 with the second Triple Crown weekend in Indianapolis, which has the lone off-week following on March 14. Competition resumes in Birmingham on March 21 before Detroit on March 28. After being a SuperMotocross playoff round in 2025, St. Louis is back on the Supercross calendar for a race the day before Easter on April 4. 

Round 13 is at Nashville before Supercross visits the only new stadium on the schedule, Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, which also doubles as the final Triple Crown race of the season. It is the series' second trip ever to Cleveland. On May 20, 1995, Jeremy McGrath won at Cleveland Stadium ahead of Jeff Emig. Philadelphia is the only Northeast venue on the calendar with a race on April 25. The season concludes with a pair of races in the Rocky Mountains, Denver on May 2 and Salt Lake City hosts the finale for the seventh consecutive season on May 9.

What Happened Last Year?

Cooper Webb took his second Supercross championship by two points over Chase Sexton despite Sexton having won seven races over the 2025 season to Webb's five.

Webb had only one finish worse than fourth all season, and that was eighth in the third round of the season. Sexton never finished worse than sixth, a significant improve from past seasons where he let results slip away, but Webb had 13 podium finishes while Sexton had 12. Sexton won four of the final five races with Webb finishing runner-up in three of them. 

What led to this two-man race was the early exits for two early championship contenders. Jett Lawrence was knocked out after the fourth round of the season due to a torn ACL. Lawrence had won at Anaheim, and he was second in San Diego. Two rounds later, Eli Tomac suffered a broken left fibula and Hunter Lawrence suffered a torn labrum. Tomac was victorious in San Diego.

Ken Roczen was an early front-runner in the 2025 season. Through the first eight races, Roczen had six podium finishes, which was highlighted with a victory at Daytona. However, in the final nine races, Roczen's had only one podium finish, and he missed the final two rounds due to an ankle injury. 

Last season did see Justin Cooper score his best championship finish in third with Cooper standing on the podium four times. Malcolm Stewart took a popular first career victory in the 450cc class at Tampa Bay, and Stewart was a career-best fourth in the championship. Aaron Plessinger took a surprise victory at Foxborough ahead of Shane McElrath in an even more stunning second. 

Jason Anderson had three podium finishes in the first five races before his season ended due to injury, and Jorge Prado, in his first attempt at a full Supercross season, was hurt at the third round in Anaheim. 

What is Different This Year?

Many riders have switched teams. 

Sexton has left Honda and he will be the lead rider at Monster Energy Kawasaki with Garrett Marchbanks as his teammate. Marchbanks was fifth in the 250cc West championship last year. 

KTM has expanded to three bikes with Tomac and Prado joining Plessinger. Prado's two MX2 Motocross World Championships came with KTM in 2018-19.

With Tomac's departure, Yamaha will remain at two riders with Webb and Cooper.

Jason Anderson has moved to the Twisted Tea Suzuki team with Colt Nichols as his teammate. 

Rockstar Husqvarna has brought RJ Hampshire to join Stewart. After finishing third in the 250cc East championship, Hampshire moved up to the 450cc class for the Motocross season and finished fifth in the championship with three podium finishes. Hampshire did suffer a broken scapula and broken ribs in a training crash during the offseason.

GasGas has exited the AMA Supercross championship, but it will be replaced with Ducati, as Troy Lee Designs Red Bull Ducati Factory Racing takes on displaced GasGas rider Justin Barcia, and Dylan Ferrandis joins the fold after running for Phoenix Racing Honda for the last two seasons. 

Ducati isn't the only new manufacturer for 2026. Triumph will field two bikes for Jordon Smith and Austin Forkner. Smith won a round in each of the last two 250cc West championships, but he will miss the first part of the season due to a shoulder injury suffered in the SuperMotocross finale last year. Forkner competed with Triumph in the 250cc East championship and 250cc Motocross championship last year.

How Will it Play Out?

The 2026 season was turned upside down three weeks before the season started when it was announced Jett Lawrence suffered a broken ankle in a training crash, and Lawrence will be sidelined for three months, effectively ending any hopes of the championship. After missing most of the 2025 Supercross season, Lawrence returned for the Motocross season where he won 16 of 22 races, and he was on the podium 21 times as he claimed his second 450cc championship. He capped off the season with a second consecutive Motocross des Nations title for Australia with his brother Hunter and Kyle Webster.

Prior to Jett's injury, it was difficult to envision the Lawrence brothers losing many races this season. With Jett out, the door is more open. 

Hunter Lawrence won twice and never finished worse than fifth on his way to finishing second in the Motocross championship in 2025. The Lawrence brothers capped off the year splitting the SuperMotocross playoff events with Jett winning two and Hunter winning the other, and they finished 1-2 in that championship as well. However, in his two seasons in Supecross' 450cc division, he has only two podium finishes. It is not as simple as Hunter filling the void his brother has left. 

With Jett Lawrence out, Webb's chance of a successful title defense shoot up significantly. He can control this championship and be the man to beat more often than if Jett Lawrence was competing. With Webb becoming more of a favorite than an underdog, he will become an obstacle to others, and it will allow him to be more confident in his aggression.

Meanwhile, Sexton has something to prove at Kawasaki. Kawasaki has not won a 450cc Supercross race since Jason Anderson closed the 2022 season with four consecutive victories. We saw a different Sexton in 2025, but the uncertainty at his new team could lead Sexton to push more and perhaps lapse back into some of the unforced errors we were accustomed to seeing in previous seasons. 

Tomac was a stunner in the Motocross season as he finished third, and he was third in all three SuperMotocross playoff rounds as well. Tomac still has a spark, but it only flashes infrequently. There will be a race or two where Tomac is the man, but there will be a few rounds where he is rather anonymous. 

Without Jett Lawrence, the chance for a surprise winner also increases. Stewart, Anderson and Cooper likely would be hoping to get on the podium at some point in 2026 with a healthy Jett Lawrence on track. Now, they all have a chance at the title. Hampshire felt like a promising dark horse, but his offseason injuries must be kept in mind. The most curious situation is Prado at KTM. He is returning to a make he has great comfort with, but Supercross is still mostly an unknown. He had promising moments in his three-round sample in 2024, but the 2025 was tough prior to his injury. The Spaniard was also competing on a Kawasaki.

There is no clear favorite. Hunter Lawrence will have good days, and he should probably win a few rounds, but on his off days, he will be fighting for the top five. Webb will not struggle to beat Hunter Lawrence, and he should be the championship favorite. The pressure will be on Hunter Lawrence to show he has what it takes to be the rider to beat, and we don't know how he will handle that pressure. Tomac has not quite had the pace the last two seasons to push for a title. Sexton will be trying to lift a manufacturer that has been down the order the last few seasons, and Sexton will be hoping his consistency from 2025 at KTM will carry over to a new bike. 

Which Ken Roczen will we see? Your guess is as good as mind. He will have a few competitive races, but a full, 17-race calendar worth of competitive races is a great stretch.

One injury changes the outlook of this season. With a healthy Jett Lawrence, there is a clear direction where the championship heads. Without him, it is open, maybe not as much as we saw in 2025, but it sets up to put a few riders more into the spotlight. A successful title defense feels possible when it previously felt unlikely. For Webb, familiarity could be his greatest advantage, as his rivals are all in new places and will be learning each time out of the gate.

Coverage of the 2026 AMA Supercross season opener from Anaheim will begin on Saturday January 10 at 7:00 p.m. ET on Peacock. 

Musings From the Weekend: Refilling the Bucket

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Scott Dixon is being knighted. Dario Franchitti is returning to competition. The Dakar Rally has started. Teams are getting ready to head to Daytona. We are still waiting on Dale Coyne Racing to announced its second driver. We are still waiting on if Prema is going to continue full-time in IndyCar. Callum Ilott has already lined up a backup plan. The Dunlop Bridge at Le Mans has a new sponsor. Hello, Goodyear! There was some racing over the last few weeks while we were away. Over the holiday period, a few thoughts came to mind.

Refilling the Bucket

We ended 2025 emptying the bucket, hitting on a few topics that did not fit into an individual Musings, but could be briefly mentioned and did not need the full space to be flushed out. 

There were a few things on my mind but I didn't know they were there. It was only after the final Musings that those came to the surface. It was too late to get those out, but some missed opportunities only need to be delayed opportunities. 

It is still early in the year. It is literally the fifth day. My mind is still in holiday mode. Instead of focusing on one thing, let's go over a few things, a few of which are new and came up over the last few weeks.

Would abolishing the playoffs kill Shane van Gisbergen's career? 

We don't know what NASCAR is doing with its championship structure. If you are surprised, you haven't been paying attention. NASCAR always announces the big changes in late-January. We are still a few weeks away from knowing what the 2026 structure will be, but with a greater drumbeat of returning to a full season points aggregate to decide the championship, it leads me to ask what would happen to the second-most successful driver of 2025 if such a change occurs?

Van Gisbergen's ascension into the NASCAR Cup Series is 100% down to the format. With one victory essentially guaranteeing a playoff spot, which is one of 16 championship positions that pay a greater amount of money than not making the playoffs. Having one driver who can win a road course race but struggle on all the ovals is a worthy gamble. It doesn't matter if he is going to finish 25th everywhere else. One victory at one of four or five road course races in the regular season means a significant payday at the end of the season. 

Trackhouse exploited the system. It knows a championship with van Gisbergen is highly unlikely, but a playoff spot for one of its entries means it getting paid better than half the field. The goal isn't to win the championship with van Gisbergen but to make the playoffs and see if it can sneak into the next round and maybe the round after that. 

If the playoff format disappears or changes so a race victory in the regular season does not guarantee a playoff berth, then what is the point of having van Gisbergen in a Cup car?

We know he can win nearly a half-dozen times in a season, but is it worth having him run 31 races if he isn't going to be competitive to them and he isn't going to be close to cracking the top twenty in the championship? 

Van Gisbergen doesn't need to run the oval races to be ready to win on a road course. We know van Gisbergen can just show up and win. That is literally what he did in his first NASCAR race ever. There would still be a value having him around. Winning one race is a big deal, and we just saw van Gisbergen win five races in a season, but if the playoffs are not there and one victory is not elevating van Gisbergen and his Trackhouse entry from 26th in the championship to 16th and substantial increasing the team's earnings from the season, is it worth it for all parties?

The system has been devised to incentivize the teams wanting playoffs, and in this post-23XI/FRM vs. NASCAR era, the teams could vocalize and organize keeping a system where one victory can boost a team's earnings even if it has only one top five finish all season. 

Let's keep that in mind. It isn't just a NASCAR thing of wanting the playoffs. This is how teams are making money, and for a good number of them, the playoffs are a financial boon that is otherwise unachievable. 

It isn't "promotion" to be Fox Sports 1 dead period filler programming?

You may have seen over the Christmas period Fox Sports 1 airing some IndyCar races from this past season. The Christmas time does create a few silent periods around the sports calendar, and with no sports on, and the talking-head shows on break because those knuckleheads aren't going to work over the holidays (they are millionaires, why would they work?), it creates programming pockets to fill. Dust off the tapes and put on events from the summer to fill a Wednesday when nothing else is going on. IndyCar can get a day of its own in December, four months after its most recent race and two months until its next one.

It is nice, but don't confuse that as promotion. 

It isn't. 

It is exposure for IndyCar, but let's be honest with ourselves, thinking any individual is going to stumble upon an IndyCar race from June being shown around Christmas because there is nothing to broadcast and that person suddenly becoming a fan who is going to start tuning in for every practice, qualifying and race come the first race in March is delusional at best. 

It isn't a bad thing. There could be no IndyCar on and then there would be no way for people to become aware, but it isn't going to lead to any growth. Let's not confuse being filler for promotion. Promotion is active, it is engaging, it is trying to draw people in. Lining up ten hours of programming on a day when most people aren't watching television or at least are not watching Fox Sports 1, is taking it easy over the holidays. It is a cheap way to fill the space between commercial breaks. 

Nolan Siegel should quit now

Arrow McLaren technical director Tony Kanaan came out last week in an interview with Motorsport.com and said Nolan Siegel needs to finish in the top ten in the championship to keep his place at the team beyond 2026.

Yeah, that isn't going to happen. 

Ever since McLaren returned to IndyCar in 2020 we have been used to its ruthless treatment of drivers, and it was a little notable Siegel was not facing the same pressure during the 2025 season when he had two top ten finishes and 11 results outside the top fifteen on his way to 22nd in the championship. Well, here is the ultimatum.

Siegel isn't going to get there. McLaren can surely produce a top ten championship car. Its other two drivers were second and fifth in 2025, but Siegel isn't going to crack the top ten. 

The championship top ten last year were Álex Palou, Patricio O'Ward, Scott Dixon, Kyle Kirkwood, Christian Lundgaard, Felix Rosenqvist, Colton Herta, Marcus Armstrong, Will Power and Scott McLaughlin. 

There will be at least one new driver in the top ten in 2026, as Herta has moved for Formula Two, but is Siegel really going to be that guy? Josef Newgarden wasn't in the top ten. David Malukas missed out, and Malukas will now be at Team Penske. Christian Rasmussen won a race. Alexander Rossi is still out there. Santino Ferrucci was in the championship top ten in 2024. Marcus Ericsson was a regular in the top ten not long ago. 

We have listed 15 drivers. Is Siegel honestly going to beat six of them? And we haven't even named a few other drivers who would like a word in the championship top ten fight. 

We can point to Siegel, but we can also point to McLaren and ask what it was thinking rushing to put him in a car when general interest in his ability was low. Teams weren't fighting over the prospect of Nolan Siegel. It could have taken a minute before making a decision. McLaren had Théo Pourchaire. It even had Callum Ilott. It was at no risk of losing Siegel to an equal or superior team.

McLaren wants to be a three-headed monster. It wants all its cars at the front. Siegel isn't going to get there. If Kanaan is saying Siegel must finish in the championship top ten, don't be surprised if we reach a point in 2026 where McLaren cuts him loose when it becomes clear the top ten is unachievable. McLaren isn't going to run a half-dozen races with a lame-duck driver. I don't know if it would hold an audition or it would just look to get the most from its third car with a handful of races remaining, but if we get to Mid-Ohio and Siegel is 18th in the championship or worse, the writing will be on the wall. 

Kyle Larson should be ashamed for wanting it easy

Every holiday season, Dinner with Racers returns with another set of podcasts, as Sean Heckman and Ryan Eversley go around the country interviewing a number of key figures from the motorsports world. This year's collection included a podcast with Kyle Larson, and on Larson's episode, the now two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion said he was open to running the 24 Hours of Daytona again, but there was a condition. 

A member of the 2015 event winners, Larson had one requirement for such an attempt. "I want to be in the best car," he said.

Everybody wants to be in the best car, but to dictate whether or not to even make an attempt on whether you are in the best car is soulless.

You cannot always be in the best car, and that should not dictate whether you give it a go. If you want to do it, do it. There is a level you want to meet. Larson shouldn't get into a car that is not prepared or thrown together on a whim. If he had an offer from Lamborghini, maybe he declines and it is understandable. However, in the current state of IMSA and the GTP class, basically everyone has a shot. What dictates the best car comes down more to Balance of Performance than anything today, and that can change after cars have already been on track. 

Ever since last year's Indianapolis 500, where Larson spun out of the race in turn two, we have seen a driver clam up on stepping out of his comfort zone. He pretty much said he wasn't going to return to the Indianapolis 500 again and doesn't see any value in doing the double. He backed out of racing the Supercars finale at Adelaide. He knows he can win in NASCAR and he can win in sprint cars and midget cars. He is so successful in a number of categories, he will stick with those. Anything else will come with demands.

It is a shame because it shows an unwillingness to embrace a challenge and go through failure. Larson should have some openness and make an attempt with the mindset that the worst possible outcome is he gains experience, and then he can return and try again. This is a driver who can basically do whatever he wants. 

Spare me he doesn't know who to talk to in terms of organizing a ride. One, he has an agent. That is the agent's responsibility. Two, Chevrolet and General Motors can find him a ride, and they have two top-class organizations in Wayne Taylor Racing and Action Express Racing running their Cadillac GTP entries. If he wanted it, a ride could be set up in a snap. Action Express rolled out an additional entry when Jimmie Johnson wanted to run the IMSA endurance races, and it put together a strong all-star entry with Kamui Kobayashi, Simon Pagenaud and Mike Rockenfeller filling out that car. 

It is a shame when such a top driver tosses his hands up and makes tough work come off as entirely impossible, especially when he truly has enough resources to make it happen. It is worse when there is not a willingness to embrace the challenge and be scared by failure.

Winners While We Were Away

The #47 Cetilar Racing Oreca of Antonio Fuoco, Roberto Lacrote and Charles Milesi swept both 4 Hours of Sepang to open the Asian Le Mans Series season on December 13-14. In the first race, the #13 Inter Europol Competition Ligier-Toyota of Alexander Bukhantsov, Jimmy Chou and Henry Cubides Olarte won in LMP3, and the #9 GetSpeed Mercedes-AMG of Anthony Bartone, Fabian Schiller and Shigekazu Wakisaka won in GT. 

In the second 4 Hours of Sepang, the #17 CLX Motorsport Ligier-Toyota of Alexander Jacoby, Paul Lanchère and Kévin Rabin won in LMP3, and the The #74 Kessel Racing Ferrari of Dustin Blattner, Chris Lulham and Dennis Marcshall won in GT.

The #13 Capital RT by Motopark Mercedes-AMG of Adam Christodoulou, Mikhail Aleshin and Denis Remenyako won the Gulf 12 Hours on December 14.

Coming Up This Weekend

The Supercross season begins in Anaheim.

Mexico City hosts the second round of the Formula E season.

2026 IndyCar Predictions

And here we are at the final day of 2025. Can you believe it is already 2025? A quarter of a century is behind us, and yet it feels like it just began. It has gone fast and it is not slowing down. 

Enough of the existential pondering for a moment, we have an annual tradition to attend to. Every year, we hit New Year's Eve, and we end the year with IndyCar predictions for the next year. It has been a while since our most recent IndyCar, 123 days to be exact, but who is counting? At least we are two-thirds of the way through the offseason. Only 61 days to go. That is only two months! If we have survived four months, what are another two more? 

My goodness, that is depressing to write. 

Well, fuck it. Let's get ready with a dozen predictions for the new season.

1. Will Power finishes in the top three of street course points

When the green flag waves on March 1, 2026 at St. Petersburg, it will be the first time since September 7, 2008 at Chicagoland Speedway Will Power starts an IndyCar race for a team other than Team Penske. Power will begin his Andretti Global-era, and after seeing how 2025 ended, Power is motivated. 

It was not the cleanest end to his time at Penske, but Power did end as the best Penske driver in the championship. He was ninth, and one point ahead of Scott McLaughlin.

Power did finish in the top five in two of four street course races in 2025. He was taken out on the opening lap at St. Petersburg, and he dropped like a rock at Toronto but did enough to finish 11th.

We are approaching four years since Power's most recent street course victory, and he is one of the best street course drivers in IndyCar history. He is joining a team that has been pretty on point when it comes to street races in recent seasons. Kyle Kirkwood won two of the four in 2025, and Kirkwood also won two of the five street races in 2023. 

Andretti Global has won five of 13 street races over the last three seasons. That is tied for the most with Chip Ganassi Racing. Patricio O'Ward has won two of them with Arrow McLaren. Christian Lundgaard won the other with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing.

In 2025, Kirkwood scored the most points in street races with 165, 48 points more than Álex Palou. O'Ward was 51 points back on 114 points and Colton Herta had 112. Even Marcus Ericsson cracked the top eighth with 94 points. 

Will Power was tenth in street course points in 2025 with 87.

The Andretti switch will see Power flourish on street courses, and he will return to being one of the best at them.

2. Josef Newgarden will at least double his top five finish total

The 2025 season was a season from hell for Josef Newgarden. If something could go wrong, it went wrong for Newgarden. Races went against Newgarden in creative ways.

Seatbelts came undone while in the top five at Long Beach. The car failed him in the Indianapolis 500. He had nowhere to go when Louis Foster spun in front of him exiting turn four at Gateway. He spun over the final corner at Road America. He spun at the start at Mid-Ohio. He was on the wrong side of a caution twice in the second Iowa race. He was collected in turn one when Jacob Abel ran wide, and he was spun in the chicane when he exited the pit lane ahead of Scott Dixon at Portland, and it then took Newgarden two laps to get the car re-fired.

Of those eight races that went horribly wrong for Newgarden, at least half of those should have been top five results, Long Beach, Gateway, Iowa and Portland, and he probably would have been in the top five at Indianapolis as well. 

Newgarden only had three top five finishes in 2025. He definitely should have had more. I think six is the lowest bar. There are six oval races. He could be in the top five of all six oval races. He is the most recent Phoenix winner. He has won two of the last three Indianapolis 500s. He is the best to ever race at Gateway. He just won at Nashville. He probably should have finished in the top five at Milwaukee as well in 2025 had he not been shuffled back due to him not taking tires under the final caution, one of three drivers not to stop, and there will be two Milwaukee races next year! 

Even if he only gets four top five finishes on ovals next year, he is going to be better on road and street courses. There were some flukey results in 2025 that aren't going to repeat themselves in 2026. It will be better. 

3. Álex Palou will not lead the championship after at least six races

Palou went wire-to-wire. He led the championship after every race in 2025. In 2024, he led the championship after 12 of 17 races, and he led the championship for the final ten events. In 2023, he took the championship lead at the fifth race and never looked back, leading for 13 races. Even in his first championship season in 2021 he led the championship after 11 of 16 races. 

Every season where Palou has not led the championship after at least six races, he has not won the championship that season. But in every season where he has not led the championship leader for no more than five races, he has been champion. 

As great and as inevitable as Palou has been in IndyCar, this is IndyCar. Nothing lasts forever. Things swing from one side to the next. He will still be great and be the driver to beat, but to think he is going to lead the championship after at least 12 races again after he has led the championship after 42 of the last 51 races is expecting a lot. 

Only one driver has won four consecutive championships. Palou damn well could become the second driver to do it, but it will not be as big of a walkover as we have seen before.

4. Scott Dixon will win a race where he leads at least the final 10% of the race

Dixon was a little fortunate to win a race in 2025. If Álex Palou does not have a brain fade with six laps to go and drive off the road, Dixon does not win at Mid-Ohio. Palou did his best to get the lead back, but once behind Dixon, he could not make the pass for the victory. Any other day, Dixon does not win that race, Palou is celebrating his seventh victory in the first ten races, and we likely do not see a Dixon victory in 2025.

Dixon only led 91 laps in 2025. He led seven races, and in four of those, he led five laps or fewer. This was the second consecutive season Dixon failed to lead 100 laps. From 2006 to 2023, he only failed to lead 100 laps once (97 laps in 2014). 

Every time we get concerned about Dixon and his winning streak and whether or not he has lost a step, he wins a race or goes on a run and wins three races in a four-race span, and he still finishes at the top of the championship. If 2025 was a bad year, it was a bad year when he was third in the championship and his only finish worse than 12th was 20th in the Indianapolis 500 when his brakes caught on fire under caution before lap 30, and the team made a late decision to change the brakes, which cost Dixon multiple laps. 

At Mid-Ohio, Dixon led 11 laps total, but he only led the final six laps, the final 6.667%. In 2026, Dixon will win another race, but this time he will win the race and lead the final 10% of the race. Let's say it is the Indianapolis 500, he would need to lead the final 20 laps, which is asking a lot at Indianapolis, but at Mid-Ohio, he would just need to lead the final nine laps. At Gateway, he would need to lead the final 26 laps. 

You get the picture. It is doable.

5. Meyer Shank Racing wins a race

This is the most cut-and-dry prediction, and it is a little boring. It will either happen or it won't. 

In the last two seasons, MSR has come close to victory with Felix Rosenqvist having some memorable runs. Last year, Marcus Armstrong had a remarkable season as both MSR drivers ended up in the top eight of the championship. Both MSR drivers finished ahead of all three Team Penske drivers in the championship. No one saw that coming!

The technical partnership with Chip Ganassi Racing helps, and it is bound to pay off with something special. Felix Rosenqvist was maybe a lap or two shy of beating Álex Palou at Road America, but a special fuel-saving drive led to another Palou victory. The pace has been there for MSR. I think this is the year MSR gets a victory. Either driver could do it. 

6. Rinus VeeKay scores the most points for a Juncos Hollinger Racing driver

After a stellar season at Dale Coyne Racing saw VeeKay take a team that could not finish better than 13th in the 2024 season to finish 14th in the championship with a runner-up finish at Toronto and an impressive fourth-place finish at Barber Motorsports Park, VeeKay has moved to JHR, his third team in three seasons. 

JHR has yet to win an IndyCar race. In the eight seasons it has competed in IndyCar, the last four has seen at least one full-time entry, JHR has one podium finish and five top five finishes. It has never had a driver finish better than 16th in the championship. VeeKay has never finished worse than 14th in the championship. 

The most points for a JHR driver came last year. Conor Daly scored 268 points, but he was 18th in the championship. Romain Grosjean was a spot better in 2024, but Grosjean scored eight fewer points. Callum Ilott was 16th in 2023 with 266 points. 

Based on VeeKay's track record, he should top this. He has never scored fewer than 277 points in a season. His average points total is 301.667. There are some reasons to believe this will be one hill too high for VeeKay to summit. JHR has struggled for pace with a selection of drivers, some on par if not better than VeeKay. We knew Dale Coyne Racing could be competitive, and it wasn't a complete surprise VeeKay got get top ten finishes there. There is no reason to feel confident he can get six to eight top ten finishes at JHR. 

However, if all he needs is 269 points, and that would have been good enough for 18th last season, I think VeeKay gets there.

7. Christian Lundgaard will have consecutive top five finishes and one of those finishes will be fourth or fifth

Lundgaard was the surprise to start 2025. He had three podium finishes in the first four races and it looked like he was set to take the spot as best McLaren driver. Patricio O'Ward did come on in the second-third of the season and ended up finishing second in the championship while Lundgaard wound up fifth. 

A few results went against Lundgaard that were out of his control, and his season became defined by either being on the verge of victory or shuffled at the back of the pack. He had six podium finishes in 2025, but zero finishes of fourth and zero finishes of fifth.

That changes, and Lundgaard will have a pair of races where he finishes in the top five in both, and one of those results will be a fourth or a fifth. In his career, 69 starts, Lundgaard has finished fourth in three races, but not since the August 2023 Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course races, and his only fifth-place result was the 2022 season finale at Laguna Seca. 

8. Alexander Rossi will lead at least 100 laps

It has been a rough few seasons for Alexander Rossi. He left Andretti Autosport for McLaren in hopes of being a championship contender, and in two seasons won zero races and never finished better than ninth in the championship, the same form he showed in his final three seasons at Andretti. Last season, he moved to Ed Carpenter Racing, where for the first time in his IndyCar career he failed to have a podium finish in a season. 

With an average finish of 13.764 and a championship finish of 14th, this was Rossi's worst season in IndyCar. 

Rossi has not led 100 laps in a season since 2019. He has led fewer than 50 laps in three of the last five seasons. 

However, that changes in 2026. Rossi will hit 100 laps led. Ed Carpenter Racing hit good form on ovals at the end of this season, capped off with Christian Rasmussen taking victory at Milwaukee. Rossi was looking competitive at Indianapolis last year before mechanical issues ended his race. One good oval race could be 100 laps led in one go. If he has three good oval races, that could be 40 or 50 laps led a pop and that will get him there easily.

9. Each Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing entry finishes better in the entrant's championship

It couldn't be much worse. The best RLLR entry in 2025 was 19th. Two of the entries didn't even crack the top 22. There are only 27 full-time cars. 

It does feel like we are going through another cycle for RLLR, and after the last three years of spinning downward, it is time for the team to rise. I don't think it can get back to the championship top five in 2026, but it just needs each car to do a little better. 

Graham Rahal had the #15 Honda in 19th. Rahal was only eight points off 18th. He had eight finishes outside the top fifteen. If he lowers that number to four, he will would get another spot in the championship.

Louis Foster was 23rd in the #45 Honda, and he was tied on 213 points with the #6 McLaren Chevrolet of Nolan Siegel. Foster had zero top ten finishes, but he had a few close calls. He had seven finishes between 11th and 14th in 2024. If he turned one 11th into a tenth, he would have been 22nd. If he turns three of those finishes into top ten results, he could be 21st and jump the #90 Prema entry. 

Then you have Mick Schumacher taking over the third RLLR entry, the re-numbered #47 Honda. This car was the second-worst entry in the championship in 2025. Devlin DeFrancesco had the #30 Honda in 26th on 171 points. That was ten points off the #77 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevrolet in 25th. DeFrancesco was averaging barely over ten points a race. I don't see how Schumacher could do that poorly. To get to 25th, he just would need to average 10.647 points per race. I feel like Schumacher should be able to do that accidentally. 

I don't know how high a RLLR entry could rise in 2026, but if the #15 Honda is 17th with the #47 Honda in 18th and the #45 Honda in 19th, that fulfills the prediction, even if RLLR would have some work to do.

10. Fewer than 50 points will separate Marcus Ericsson and Dennis Hauger

Depending on how you read this, either Dennis Hauger is going to do very well or Marcus Ericsson is going to do very bad, because there is no middle ground. 

Ericsson's second season at Andretti Global was a slip backward from an already poor position after 2024. Ericsson was 20th in the championship. He was 26 points behind Graham Rahal. Ericsson had one top five finish. He had two top ten finishes over the entire season. It was his worst season in IndyCar by far. 

Meanwhile, Dale Coyne Racing had Rinus VeeKay in 14th and 71 points clear of Ericsson. 

I don't think 2026 will be as bad for Ericsson, and I don't think Hauger will immediately hit the level VeeKay reached, even though Hauger's Coyne entry will be run in partnership with Andretti Global. I think there is a middle ground where Ericsson rises back to 14th or 15th in the championship, but Hauger ends up being 16th or 17th, wins Rookie of the Year, and these two drivers are pretty darn close. 

11. Indianapolis 500 one-offs will lead fewer than a third of the race

The 2025 Indianapolis 500 will have a strange place in the history book. It already has a strange place, but it will develop as we get away from it.

Takuma Sato led the most laps. Ryan Hunter-Reay led the second-most. They combined to lead 99 laps. Throw in Jack Harvey leading three laps and Ed Carpenter leading one, and Indianapolis 500 one-offs led over half the race in 2025. No full-time driver led more than 17 laps, and those drivers were Marcus Ericsson and Devlin DeFrancesco!

Don't worry, we will not see the same thing again in 2026, and we will see a market correction. A third of the Indianapolis 500 is 66.667 laps. One-off drivers are not going to lead more than 67 laps next year. They could led a few laps. Hunter-Reay has moved to McLaren for the 2026 Indianapolis 500. Sato could be back. Hélio Castroneves is still going to be out there. There is a chance one of those drivers could lead 30 or 40 laps on their own. The 2025 race was such an obscure event in how it played out from start to finish that I don't see one-off drivers leading that many laps again.

12. A country wins a World Cup match and an IndyCar race on the same day

This is a fun one, as The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be held in the United States, Mexico and Canada, and IndyCar will be intertwined in a sense as the Nashville race is scheduled to follow the 2026 World Cup Final. 

The World Cup begins on June 11 with the final on July 19. There will be three days in which an IndyCar race and World Cup matches are both occurring. For this one to be correct, a country must win its match and the IndyCar race winner that day must be from one of the countries that win a match.

For example, June 21 is the IndyCar race from Road America. On that same day there will be four group stage matches, the second match days for Group G and H. The matches that day are Belgium vs. Iran, New Zealand vs. Egypt, Spain vs. Saudi Arabia and Uruguay vs. Cape Verde.

There looks like only two real possibilities for June 21, but don't you like your odds? Álex Palou, Scott Dixon, Scott McLaughlin and Marcus Armstrong could all win at Road America. Spain will be heavy favorites over Saudi Arabia. New Zealand has a mighty task against Egypt, and the All Whites (yes, this is New Zealand's national team nickname) must win for this to be correct. A moral victory in a draw over Egypt will not be enough.

July 5 will see IndyCar at Mid-Ohio, and there will be two quarterfinal matches. We don't know who will be playing that day, but it could be Brazil. It could be the Netherlands. It could be Sweden (if it qualifies via its UEFA playoff). Norway is a possible option as are Germany, England, Mexico, and Spain.

Then there is the day of the final, and the door is open to any of the 48 countries that qualify to play on that day. 

Could we see a dream day where the United States lifts the World Cup and then Josef Newgarden wins again in his home race? 

Could Australia do the unthinkable while Will Power does the plausible? 

Could July 19, 2026 be the day it ends up coming home and England sees Callum Ilott take a first career victory that would very much be overshadowed? 

Or does Germany claim another World Cup while Mick Schumacher wins on an oval? 

Does Caio Collet win a rain-shortened Nashville race after Brazil wins its first World Cup since 2002 earlier that afternoon?

Anything is possible at this point.

With that thought in mind, let's close out 2026 thinking about everything that is possible in the New Year. Thank you to all those who have taken the time to read these post. Don't forget to check out any of the other sets of predictions for NASCAR, motorcycle racing, Formula One and sports car racing. They will keep you busy over the first few days of the New Year, as we will return to our usual musings on Monday.

Happy New Year! 

2026 Sports Car Predictions

Sports car racing keeps things interesting. We are coming off a year where there was a new manufacturer joining the top echelon of sports car racing, and looking ahead we have a year where another new manufacturer will join the top echelon of sports car racing. 

There is plenty of competition to keep you busy in the sports car world, for world championships to domestic series, and it will all start soon enough. It technically has already started as the Asian Le Mans Series season got underway earlier this month, but there is still plenty to preview and predict ahead of the New Year.

FIA World Endurance Championship

1. Genesis Magma will score more points than Aston Martin's 2025 total

New year, and another new manufacturer is joining the WEC grid. Genesis Magma Racing is making its debut with the Genesis GMR-001. Pipo Derani and André Lotterer were contracted to lead the development of this program, and the team has added Mathieu Jaminet, Daniel Juncadella, Paul-Loup Chatin and Mathys Jaubert to round out the lineup.

The driver ability is there. The question will be the car. 

The 2025 season saw the debut of the Aston Martin Valkyrie AMR-LMH, a long-awaited entry into the series, which had sat on the shelf for a period of time. For all the attention it got for the noise from its 6.5 liter V12 engine, it only scored 24 points. Its only points finishes were the final two races. The #009 Aston Martin was fifth at Fuji and seventh at Bahrain. 

Genesis has been testing since August and it did a 32-hour test at Portimão in September. That doesn't mean it is going to run well, but I think Genesis scores earlier. It might just be a few points here and there, but they add up. There could be a big result later in the season that helps get Genesis exceed that 24-point total.

2. There will be fewer 1-2 overall finishes for manufacturers

Four out of eight races had a 1-2 finish for a manufacturer. 

Ferrari went 1-2-3 in Qatar and 1-2 at Spa-Francorchamps. Cadillac's lone victory of the season at Interlagos was also a 1-2 result. Toyota closed the 2025 season with a 1-2 in Bahrain.

In 2024, there was only one 1-2 result for a manufacturer, and it was the race a privateer team won. Hertz Team Jota won at Spa-Francorchamps while still a Porsche team ahead of the Porsche Penske Motorsport outfit. 

I don't see it happening again where the only day Cadillac or Toyota win a race also being a 1-2 result. I don't see if Aston Martin has one good race both cars end up 1-2. I think that will just be a quirk for 2025.

3. Every winner in LMGT3 will have a podium finish that isn't first

In 2025, six different entries won in LMGT3, but for four of those cars, their only podium finish was first-place. 

The championship-winning #92 Manthey Porsche won twice, but its next best finish was fourth. The #87 Akkodis ASP Team Lexus won twice as well, and also had its next best finish be fourth. The #33 TF Sport Corvette won the season opener and never finished better than sixth the rest of the season. The #95 United Autosport McLaren won at Austin, and its next best finish all season was seventh. 

For it to happen once is one thing, but for four of the six winners to have their only trips to the podium be victories is staggering. 

Now, it did happen three times in 2024, and it happened twice in the final year of GTE-Am in 2023. However, I predict a strong market correction and it doesn't happen at all in 2026, even if history says it is going to happen at least once.

4. Among the top five in the LMGT3 championship, British drivers are in the top two most-represented nationalities

Last season in LMGT3, there was a lack of British drivers in the top ten of the championship. There were only two. 

Ian James was fourth with Heart of Racing Aston Martin, and Jonny Edgar was sixth with TF Sport. 

Meanwhile, there were six Italians, three Americans, two Austrians and two Frenchmen. No other nationalities were represented multiple times. In the championship top five, there were three Italians, two Americans and two Austrians.

There are a few more Brits in LMGT3 this year. James and Edgar will each be back in their respective entries, and Edgar was only four points off cracking the top five in 2025. 

James Cottingham will be in a Manthey Porsche. Ben Tuck is back in a Proton Competition Ford. Darren Leung has moved to Team WRT BMW and Dan Harper will be in the other Team WRT entry. Tom Fleming will be in a McLaren with Garage 59. 

It will likely take at least three drivers to crack the top two most-represented. It feels possible.

IMSA

5. Six GTP entries have consecutive podium finishes

Last season, five different entries had a run of consecutive podium finishes at some point.

The #7 Porsche won the first three races and then finished second. The #6 Porsche had five consecutive podium finishes to open the season. The #24 Team RLL BMW was third in consecutive races at Long Beach and Laguna Seca. Wayne Taylor Racing's #10 Cadillac went second and third at Detroit and Watkins Glen. The #31 Whelen Racing Cadillac ended the season with a pair of victories.

But a sixth entry having consecutive podium finishes at some point in the season? Really? Is that possible? Well, it happened in 2022 and 2023. There were only six full-time entries in 2022, so that made it a lot easier, but even with all the cars in GTP for 2026, six of them will have consecutive podium finishes at some point during the season.

6. At least four drivers reach 15 career victories

There are made notable names approaching this milestone. 

Felipe Nasr is on 14 career victories, as is Jon Field, who will be back in LMP2 as Intersport Racing has returned to competition. Felipe Albuquerque, Sébastien Bourdais, Laurens Vanthoor and Matt Campbell are all on 13 victories, though Campbell will become an Endurance Cup driver for Porsche in 2026. Jack Hawksworth has 12 victories.

Those are seven drivers within three victories of the 15 milestone. I say just over half get there in 2025. Nasr feels almost certain to get one victory. With how well Porsche did, you would think Vanthoor could pick up two as well. Albuquerque, Bourdais and Hawksworth all went winless in 2025. All three aren't going to be shutout again in 2026. One will definitely win, and in all likelihood at least two will, and multiple victories cannot be ruled out.

7. At least four nationalities are represented between the two GT class winners at Road America

Last year at Road America, the #1 Paul Miller Racing BMW of Madison Snow and Neil Verhagen won in GTD Pro, and the #021 Triarsi Competizione Ferrari of Kenton Koch and Onofrio Triarsi won in GTD. That is four American winners among the drivers.

However, in 2026, Road America is going to be a six-hour race. In the five endurance races on the 2025 calendar, at least four nationalities were represented among the winning GT drivers in four of them (Watkins Glen was the exception). 

We aren't going to see an all-American set of winners again. With third drivers likely in some entries, we are going to see more possibilities. I think there will be multiple flags being waved for these winners.

8. Two class champions also win the Endurance Cup championships

The champions are rarely the Endurance Cup champions. 

Last year, the Endurance Cup champions were third in GTP, second in LMP2, fourth in GTD Pro, and the Endurance Cup-only #21 AF Corse Ferrari won the title in GTD.

In 2024, two of the champions were also Endurance Cup champions, the #7 Porsche in GTP and the #57 Winward Racing Mercedes-AMG in GTD. It also happened in 2023 when the #31 Whelen Racing Cadillac took both titles in GTP and the #74 Riley entry did it in LMP3.

It feels quick for it to happen again, but I think we see a bit of a swing from 2025, and the top teams from the entire season will be on top at the endurance races as well.

Other

9. There will be at least four European Le Mans Series overall winners that have consecutive letters in their last name

Looking at the ELMS entry list, there are a fair number of LMP2 drivers with consecutive letters in their last name. 

Pietro Fittipaldi

Ryan Cullen

Louis Rousset

Enzo Trulli

Griffin Peebles

Alex Quinn

Richard Verschoor

Tom Dillmann has two sets of consecutive letters!

Nick Yelloly

François Perrodo

P.J. Hyett

Last year, three drivers with consecutive letters in their last name won overall, Perrodo, Daniel Juncadella and Esteban Masson. I think that number increases this season.

10. In the Matt Bell battle, LMGT3 Matt Bell will have the better class finish over LMP3 Matt Bell in majority of the races

Two drivers, one name, and the Matt Bell confusion will hit its greatest heights in 2025 when both drivers will be competing in the European Le Mans Series.

Matthew Richard Bell will be competing in the #11 Eurointernational Liger in LMP3. Matthew Thomas Bell will be competing in the #33 TF Sport Corvette in LMGT3.

In the last two seasons, Matthew Richard Bell and Eurointernational has finished second in the LMP3 championship. Matthew Thomas Bell has not compete in ELMS since 2024 when he ran an LMP2 Pro-Am entry with Team Virage. He spent the last three seasons in IMSA, and the last two in a Corvette GT3 with AWA. 

Eurointernational has been a strong team in LMP3, but I think Matthew Thomas Bell with TF Sport will pull off better results than Matthew Richard Bell in LMP3. 

11. No drivers win in multiple entries in Intercontinental GT Challenge

Last year, Kelvin van der Linde took the Intercontinental GT Challenge championship as van der Linde won four of the five races. He won the four races in three different entries. 

At the Bathurst 12 Hour, he won in the #32 Team WRT BMW. He won the 24 Hours Nürburgring with the #99 ROWE Racing BMW. Van der Linde was back in the #32 Team WRT BMW for the Suzuka 1000 km, but he won in the #46 Team WRT BMW at the Indianapolis 8 Hour.

What happens in 2026? No driver wins in multiple entries. It is going to be pretty straight forward. If you win in one car, then you are going to win in that car later in the season, if you win again. 

12. The number of home race winners in GT World Challenge Asia at least doubles

We don't talk about GT World Challenge Asia often in this space, and we aren't going to increase our coverage, but we need another prediction and we need to mix it up. 

In 2025, twice where there home race winners. Malaysian Prince Jefri Ibrahim won at Sepang, and Chinese due Ye Yifei and Zhang Yaqi won in Beijing. 

In 2026, there will be two rounds in China, as well as two rounds in Japan, plus Sepang remains and Mandalika is also on the schedule representing Indonesia. 

With an additional Chinese round, we are highly likely to see another race with home winners, and while Japanese drivers are not overly abundant in GTWC Asia, you would think after being shut out and having no Japanese drivers win overall in 2024 and 2025, at least one will do it in 2026, and there are two Japanese rounds where it could happen. 

Four predictions are now complete, and you can catch up on NASCAR, motorcycle racing and Formula One predictions before we conclude the year with IndyCar predictions. 

2026 Formula One Predictions

Christmas is behind us, and this Boxing Day falls on a Friday, which means our annual tradition of Formula One predictions takes you into the weekend. We really have no clue will happen as a new set of regulations will be introduced. It could be more of the same. It could be a giant shakeup. It could start slow and get better. It could be chaotic early and then be even-keel come the midway point of the season. We don’t know. We have no clue.

But let’s shoot from the hip anyway. 

1. There will not be a race where McLaren swaps its drivers when both are in a podium position

Perhaps the most notable moment of the 2025 season was at the Italian Grand Prix when McLaren swapped positions after Lando Norris fell behind Oscar Piastri due to a slower pit stop for Norris. The swap moved Norris back up to second, though Piastri was leading the world championship at the time. It was three points to Norris and three points away from Piastri. 

Of course, Norris won the title by two points.

This was the second consecutive season with a notable McLaren position swap after pit strategy bit one of its drivers. At Hungry in 2024, Norris was dropped to second and Piastri took the victory after pit strategy put Piastri behind his teammate.

In 2026, I don’t think that will happen again. Either McLaren will not be in a position to swap or it will not have to because the right driver will always been ahead. 

2. One race will feature a podium with at least two drivers who were not on the podium in 2025

New regulations, new possibilities. 

Somebody is going to do better than expected and experience a big leap forward. A few drivers will go through more rough patches. Some winners are going to remain winners, but the door will be open to someone else having their day in the sun. It doesn’t have to be a victory, but a third would do.

Lewis Hamilton notably did not have a podium finish in 2025. Many are skeptical Ferrari will have anything better than it did in 2025, but maybe it does. Maybe Hamilton gets lucky. He did win a sprint race. 

Fernando Alonso is going to be driving an Adrian Newey-designed Aston Martin, and Alonso was not on the podium last year. We have also seen Lance Stroll pick up podium finishes when he is in a competitive car. Don’t rule that out.

The catch here is we need the likes of Alonso and Hamilton, or Hamilton and Esteban Ocon, or Pierre Gasly and Lance Stroll to be on the same podium for this prediction to be correct. Things must align. That is where it gets tricky. 

3. On at least two occasions will a driver win a race following a retirement

I keep thinking back to 2014 and Lewis Hamilton won the championship after he overcame mechanical issues that did not affect Mercedes teammate Nico Rosberg in the same way. And it happened early in the season. Hamilton was out before the season opener from Melbourne even got underway, and he then won four consecutive races. Hamilton then won five consecutive races after he retired from the Belgian Grand Prix.

The level of Hamilton’s responses likely will not be matched in 2026, but why couldn’t Max Verstappen drop out after engine issues in one race only to win the next? Why couldn’t the McLarens get together in one race and then one of them win the next? 

We are going to see a few responses from one race to the next. 

4. Max Verstappen’s longest podium streak will not be greater than six races

Verstappen ended the 2025 season with ten consecutive podium finishes. Prior to that he had five podium finishes in the first 14 races and he was never on the rostrum for consecutive races. 

There will be some balance in 2026. Verstappen will not struggle, but I don’t think he will be inseparable from the podium. He could still have three streaks of five podium finishes during the season and that would be 15 podium finishes, the same total he had this past season. 

He is going to be competitive. He will likely carry the car further than it can go. I am not sure he can come close to how he ended the 2025 season where he was clearly the best over the final ten races and it nearly led to an improbable championship. 

5. Andrea Kimi Antonelli will score at least 35 points between May and June

In 2025, Antonelli scores 22 points over the six races between May and June. 

He was sixth in Miami and was seventh in the sprint race the day before. Eight points for sixth and two points for the sprint result. 

He was third in Montreal for his first career podium finish. That is 12 points. 

In the other four races, Antonelli had three retirements and he was 18th at Monaco. 

I think things go better during spring 2026. There are only five races between those two months but Miami is still a sprint weekend, and Canada becomes a sprint weekend. 

Antonelli would need to average a finish of 6.5 in the five Grand Prix to hit the 35-point total. I think he does it. 

6. Lewis Hamilton will finish in the points in more sprint races but he will have fewer sprint race points than he had in 2025

In 2025, Hamilton scores 21 points in sprint races. Eight of those were thanks to his sprint race victory in China. He scored in four sprint races (China, Miami, Austin, Interlagos)

It is nuts to think Hamilton will do better than 21 points in 2026. Let’s just say he scores in all six sprint races, he would need to average around four points per sprint race. I don’t think he will have six top five finishes in sprint races. However, I could see Hamilton being in the top eight for five of six sprint races. 

Maybe one or two are in the top five. That could be about ten points right there, but he could be eighth in two others and seventh in another. That would be a total of 14 sprint race points with five finishes in the points. It is plausible. 

7. Cadillac will not have the most double retirements

New team. Unknowns across the board. I want to be optimistic and see Cadillac score points. I want it to have a few thrilling days with Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Pérez each having their spots to shine. But it likely will not match Haas’ debut race when Romain Grosjean finished in the top six. 

Cadillac has done all the right things to prepare for this season. It was doing simulated weekends toward the end of the 2025 season where the team went through the flow of a race weekend as if it was already competing. That will help but that doesn’t mean the team is going to come out like gangbusters. There will be plenty of things it can only learn from having a car on track. 

But let’s be positive. I think Cadillac will avoid double retirements and not have the most in Formula One. 

In 2025, there were only three instances of a team having a double retirement. The first was the team formerly known as Toro Rosso at Silverstone. Ferrari was responsible for the other two (Zandvoort and Interlagos). 

This suggests the window is narrow. You cannot have more than one, but with the new regulations the overall likelihood increases. It could happen to Cadillac, but I think Cadillac will make sure it cars stay on track. 

8. When breaking the schedule into thirds, Liam Lawson will outscore Arvid Lindblad in at least two of those thirds

Lawson ran two races for Red Bull to start the 2025 before being kicked down to the junior team. It was the best thing to happen to Lawson. He scored 38 points from there on. 

Lindblad is the latest child Red Bull has rushed to Formula One. He was sixth in Formula Two and he did win three races (one feature and two sprints). He only turned 18 years old in August. We have more examples of these kids not being Max Verstappen than being Max Verstappen that it is far more likely Lindblad struggles, make mistakes and doesn’t score points regularly. 

Lawson is battle-tested. There could be a period later in the season where Lindblad is on the same level and could be getting better finishes, but I don’t see that happening early. Lawson will need to be responsible for points early, and that could be the case for the entire season.

9. Alexander Albon will have a podium finish but finish behind Carlos Sainz, Jr. in the championship

Albon outscored Sainz, Jr. by nine points in 2025 (73 to 64). However, Sainz, Jr. had two podium finishes while Albon’s best finish was fifth. 

Let’s see the reverse in 2026. Albon will get on the podium but Sainz, Jr. will score more points. It felt like Sainz, Jr. had the better season. Albon had the better start, but once Sainz, Jr. was familiar with the car, it swung. I think Sainz, Jr. will be stronger from the start in 2026. Albon will do well, but Sainz, Jr. will be carrying the Williams flag for majority of the season.

10. There will be an incident between Gabriel Bortoleto and Franco Colapinto

It is a World Cup year. We have a Brazilian and an Argentine on the grid. If there are any two drivers on the grid that could cause an international incident if they got together, these would be the two.

We could see two drivers fighting toward the back of the grid. Colapinto definitely needs results after he failed to score a point. Bortoleto did well as a rookie. Both will want more. Both will be pushing the limit. The two could get together. It would be notable.

11. At least one race will be won from outside a top ten starting position

It goes back to the new regulations. We are going to see teams figuring things out and teams will experience more technical gremlins. An untimely engine change could lead to a grid penalty. A front row start could turn to 12th, but a fast car is a fast car, and there are some circuits where a grid penalty is not insurmountable. 

Max Verstappen won from 14th at Spa-Francorchamps with ease in 2022. We have seen it before. A team could have a setback but run the right strategy to overcome it. It could be Spa-Francorchamps. It could be Monza or Baku. It could be a rain race where it happens and grid penalties don’t even come into play. 

Every race winner in 2025 started on one of the first two rows. We are due for something different, even if only for one race. 

12. There will be one race where Oliver Bearman is the top finishing British driver

I thought Bearman was the best rookie in 2025, and he was putting Haas in a wonderful position. He was fourth in Mexico and sixth in Brazil. Bearman outscored teammate Esteban Ocon by three points. If there is a driver best positioned for a promotion to a top tier team in 2027, Bearman is the guy, and Ferrari could have two open spots.

This prediction is saying a lot because you have Lando Norris at McLaren, George Russell at Mercedes, Lewis Hamilton at Ferrari, and now there is Arvid Lindblad at Red Bull’s B-Team, and Bearman has to finish ahead of all those drivers. 

Could there be a race where Oscar Piastri wins ahead of Max Verstappen and Bearman is a surprise in third, perhaps filling the role of Nico Hülkenberg at Silverstone? Yeah, that could happen. 

What if there is a race where Norris retires, Ferrari is slower than Haas, Russell has an issue on track and is knocked down about five spots from where he should be running, Lindblad is just 17th best on the day, and Bearman is the best Brit in sixth? It doesn’t sound crazy. 

Haas has never had a podium finish in 214 races. It went a decade without a podium finish! It is bound to happen. It feels like Bearman is meant to be the guy. If he does it, he could be the best finishing Brit on the day, a remarkable achievement in its own right considering the competition from his fellow countrymen. 

And that is another set of predictions complete! We are more than halfway done with NASCAR and motorcycle racing already in the bag. We will finish up next week, as we slowly move toward 2026.

2025 Motorsports Christmas List

It is Christmas Eve, and you likely wondered if we were going to pass out some Christmas presents this year, but here we are! The last month or so has been rather difficult. It was an active month with Formula One finishing up its season. Then the 23XI/Front Row Motorsports vs. NASCAR was underway and took about a week-and-a-half our attention before the case was settled and the teams were the big winners. Sadly, the last week has been marred with the fatal plane crash that claimed the lives of Greg Biffle and his family.

This December never really settled down. Now Christmas is here. These next few days should be a little more peaceful. It should be a chance to detach for a moment and not be consumed with anything all that important. This should be time for ourselves. 

Before the festivities get going with family visiting, meals shared and gifts exchanged, let’s cover what we are handing out to those in the motorsports world. 

To Denny Hamlin: Immunity for untimely cautions

To Michael Jordan: Cigars

To Denny Hamlin, Michael Jordan and Bob Jenkins: Thank You cards from every other NASCAR team owner

To Lando Norris: Jet-ski

To Oscar Piastri: Restored confidence 

To Zak Brown: Humility

To Max Verstappen: Patience in Barcelona 

To Lewis Hamilton: A Time Machine back to December 24, 2023.

To Charles Leclerc: Acceptance when it it time to move on

To Oliver Bearman: Catching another team’s attention

To George Russell: A trip to Bali

To Andrea Kimi Antonelli: No sophomore slump

To Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Pérez: Smooth development

To Cadillac F1: Respectable results

To Colton Herta: His time being worth the switch to Formula Two

To Isack Hadjar: A full season at Red Bull

To Arvid Lindblad: There actually being a change of philosophy at Red Bull with Helmut Marko gone

To Liam Lawson: Continuing to outscore the second Red Bull entry

To Carlos Sainz, Jr.: His best race of the season being in Madrid

To Alexander Albon: Quickly ending his point-less streak

To Nico Hülkenberg: Another podium finish

To Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon: Making up

To Yuki Tsunoda: A dabbling in IndyCar

To Franco Colapinto: Being ready to jump

To Fernando Alonso: A few entries into the record book

To Gabriel Bortoleto: Continuing his development

To Leonardo Fornaroli, Jak Crawford, Luke Browning and a host of other junior drivers: Formula One sprint weekends becoming a separate championship for reserve/development/non-full-time drivers to compete

To Alex Dunne: Less contact

To Marc Márquez: A good challenge in track

To Álex Márquez: A few memorable battles where he beats his brother Marc

To Jorge Martín: Not being rusty

To Marco Bezzecchi: A better start to the season

To Francesco Bagnaia: Staying up right

To Johann Zarco: A few more rainy days

To Fabio Quartararo: Not needing to be majestic just to get average results

To Pedro Acosta: Not getting stuck at KTM if things take a turn

To MotoGP: The Brazilian Grand Prix returning without a hitch

To Daniel Holgado and David Alonso: Becoming title contenders in Moto2

To Supercars: A mulligan for 2025

To Broc Feeney: A clean weekend at Adelaide

To Chaz Mostert: NASCAR Cup weekends at Austin and Watkins Glen

To Kyle Larson: Comfortability in failure

To Chase Elliott: Legos

To William Byron: Reasonable expectations

To Alex Bowman: The first Hendrick Motorsports victory of 2026

To Brad Keselowski: A speedy recovery

To Chris Buescher: More laps led

To Shane van Gisbergen: A top 20 average finish on ovals

To Connor Zilisch: No broken bones

To Corey Heim: A NASCAR Cup Series ride

To Joey Logano: Sunscreen

To Ryan Blaney: Razors

To Austin Cindric: That lost road course ability

To Josh Berry: More than two good races

To Kyle Busch: A clear path for 2027 and beyond

To Austin Dillon: Sustained success at Richmond

To Richmond Raceway: Regulations that allow for competitive racing

To Watkins Glen: A lovely spring weekend for May 9-10

To Bubba Wallace: More road course practice

To Tyler Reddick: Mental clarity

To Christopher Bell: Being on the right side of the cutline after Martinsville

To Chase Briscoe: A pinball machine

To Daniel Suárez: Keeping up with his new teammates

To Ty Gibbs: The ability to be a good teammate

To Erik Jones: Short-track speed

To John Hunter Nemechek: Three consecutive top ten finishes at some point in 2026

To Kaulig Racing and RAM: Not screwing up year one in the Truck Series

To Parker Kligerman: A Daytona victory that counts in the record books

To A.J. Allmendinger: More sports opportunities and an Indianapolis 500 entry with Meyer Shank Racing

To Sheldon Creed: Finally winning a NASCAR national series race 

To Matt Crafton: A peaceful retirement

To Nick Sanchez: Landing on his feet in a competitive seat

To Justin Allgaier: Slippers

To Jesse Love: A fitting championship result 

To Austin Hill: Deep breathing exercises 

To Corey Day: Not being replaced midseason due to results

To Aric Almirola: Full-time in NASCAR’s second division

To NASCAR Brasil Series champion Rubens Barrichello: A NASCAR Cup entry at Austin

To Chicagoland Speedway: Proper-running plumbing

To Iowa Speedway: A better connection with the local area

To Formula E: Their races on a proper channel in the United States and races on weekends and at times when nothing else is going on. 

To Jake Dennis: A sports car role

To Aston Martin: Results that justify the attention drawn to its LMDh program

To Porsche: Better luck on the next set of FIA World Endurance Championship regulations

To Hertz Team Jota: No contact between its cars

To the 24 Hours of Le Mans: A real battle with multiple manufacturers until the checkered flag

To Lone Star Le Mans: Moving to any other weekend but Labor Day weekend. Open the season in Austin.

To IndyCar: A 2028 car that stands out and attracts more attention from manufacturers and viewers

To Álex Palou: As much success in the courtroom as he has on the racetrack

To Scott Dixon: A victory where the leader didn’t drive off course on his own

To Scott McLaughlin: Taking the green flag for every Indianapolis 500 for the rest of his career

To Will Power: Showing it to Team Penske

To Kyle Kirkwood: A complete season

To Marcus Ericsson: A return to 2022 form

To Josef Newgarden: No finishes outside the top twenty 

To David Malukas: Maturity

To Patricio O’Ward: A home race that IndyCar properly supports

To Christian Lundgaard: Better oval results

To Ryan Hunter-Reay: A development role in the McLaren Hypercar program

To Callum Ilott: Two full seasons in IndyCar and IMSA 

To Robert Shwartzman: Road course pace that matches his oval for,

To Prema: A charter and some financial support

To Dennis Hauger: Giving Andretti Global a good headache

To Marcus Armstrong: A few days when he is the best Kiwi in IndyCar

To Felix Rosenqvist: Races where he starts in the top five and finishes better than where he finishes 

To Conor Daly: A good role as an ambassador

To Alexander Rossi: A tire advantage in the final stint at Milwaukee

To Christian Rasmussen: Remaining on Ed Carpenter’s good side

To Mick Schumacher: Fun days at the racetrack

To Graham Rahal: Better tire strategy when leading the Grand Prix of Indianapolis

To Louis Foster: A top ten finish

To Myles Rowe: A real shot at IndyCar

To Caio Collet: Not becoming the next Matheus Leist at A.J. Foyt Racing

To Santino Ferrucci: Proper pit entry at every race

To Rinus VeeKay: Not sweating out a Last Row Qualifying session for the Indianapolis 500

To Kyffin Simpson: Results that do the Sunoco livery justice

To Sting Ray Robb: A snowblower

To Jack Harvey: Lincoln City promotion to the Championships. Currently second in League One

To Romain Grosjean: More weekends at the racetrack as Prema’s reserve driver

To Hélio Castroneves: 112 laps in the Indianapolis 500

To Takuma Sato: Kitchen remodeling

To Victor Martins: Half the success Dennis Hauger had in Indy Lights

To IndyCar’s new street races in Arlington and Markham: No hiccups

To IndyCar’s new officiating panel: Team Penske being in its best behavior

To Tim Cindric: Quiet days at home

To Jack Benyon: A full-time podcast co-host

To Dario Franchitti: A 24 Hours of Le Mans entry

To all the Meyer Shank Racing Acura GTP Drivers: Honda supporting the program to take it to Le Mans

To Kakunoshin Ohta: Honda making up its damn mind over what it wants to do with him in the United States

To Ben Barnicoat: A swimming-based training program

To Kelvin van der Linde: A BMW GTP/Hypercar opportunity

To Kamui Kobayashi: A Super Formula victory

To Genesis Magma Racing: Respectable first-year results

To António Félix da Costa: Making Porsche jealousy

To Richard Verschoor: Peace in sports car racing

To James Calado: Proper recognition from his home country that he is a world champion with Ferrari

To Alessandro Pier Guidi and Antonio Giovinazzi: Proper recognition from their home country that they are world champions with Ferrari 

To Louis Delétraz and Jordan Taylor: Top five finishes

To Felipe Nasr and Nick Tandy: Strong finishes

To Frederik Vesti: More than just the endurance races in IMSA

To Jack Aitken: A scooter

To Earl Bamber: Noise-cancelling headphones

To Tower Motorsport: Clearing post-race inspection at the 24 Hours of Daytona

To Dane Cameron: A return to GTP competition. 

To Ricky Taylor: New patio furniture

To Philipp Eng and Dries Vanthoor: Race results matching qualifying results

To Kevin Magnussen: Replicating some of his father’s success

To Nick Cassidy: Peugeot having it figured out

To IMSA LMP2 category: A weekend with a split pro race and amateur race. That would be fun to see. 

To Sébastien Bourdais: Heating pads

To Tom Blomqvist and a host of other sports car drivers: No clashes between IMSA and the European Le Mans Series. I don’t understand how or why a series with six-race weekends would clash with another multi-class series with so many shared drivers.

To Jack Hawksworth: A few breaks

To James Hinchcliffe: No race cars let down on his feet

To Logan Sargeant: Joy at the racetrack

To Memo Gidley: A 24 Hours of Daytona return

To Road America: A stellar IMSA endurance race weekend 

To Dover Motor Speedway: A points-paying NASCAR Cup race

To Zandvoort: A fitting end to this stint on the Formula One calendar

To Sébastien Ogier: A season where it is clear whether or not he will be full-time or part-time

To Kalle Rovanperä: A personal training program to develop the right muscles

To the NHRA: The ability to postpone the final round of the season to another weekend if it is going to rain for the entirety of the scheduled date

To Jim France: A rocking chair and some thick blankets

To Jett and Hunter Lawrence: A tandem bike

To Eli Tomac: One more trip to the fountain of youth

To Cooper Webb: A motocross season that matches his Supercross success

To the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters: Reinforcements after a number of its top drivers announced they would not be returning for 2026

To Antonio García: A championship finish other than first or third

To Jack Doohan: A full-time ride somewhere. DTM?

To Mac Clark: Support up to Indy Lights

To Liam McNeilly: No visa issues and a full season in Indy Pro 2000

To Max Garcia: Enough patience to realize he doesn’t need to be in IndyCar by the time he turns 18 years old 

To Elfyn Evans: Coming back in another time where he isn’t stuck finished second in the World Rally Championship… and a return of Wales Rally GB

To Valentino Rossi: A 24 Hours of Daytona entry

To Kaden Honeycutt: Full-time job security

To Rockingham Speedway: Lights and a NASCAR Cup date in late-spring

To North Wilkesboro Speedway: Its NASCAR Cup race moving to Saturday night. There is no reason for IndyCar and NASCAR to be clashing post-World Cup final

To Indianapolis Motor Speedway: Realizing we have heard enough about the pavement in turn two. Were good.

To Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course: Facility updates. Come on, now! This has been too long.

To Lime Rock Park: A proper sports car round. Either IMSA GT only or Michelin Pilot Challenge

To Superstars Racing Experience: A NASCAR-funded resurrection that has it compete at a half-dozen short tracks 

To World Superbike: A competitive championship

To Nicolò Bulega: A challenge for the entire season

To the Grand Prix of Indianapolis: Using oval turn one

To Laguna Seca: A crowd worthy of hosting the IndyCar finale

To the Milwaukee Mile: IndyCar realizing it is the best event currently on the schedule for its finale

To Chip Ganassi Racing’s Indy Lights program: Many spare parts

To NASCAR: A championship format that rewards winning, is a season-long aggregate and accepting that the championship might not go down to the final lap of the season

To the NASCAR In-Season Tournament: Some stakes worth a damn

To the Canadian Grand Prix: Moving to the Sunday before the Indianapolis 500 or the Sunday after the Indianapolis 500 in 2027 and from there onward. 

And that is it! The bag is empty. 

I wish you all a Merry Christmas, and I hope you have a fun few days. We have a few more sets of predictions left before we close out 2025, and soon we will be entirely locked in on the new seasons, which will be here in a flash.

2026 Motorcycle Predictions

We are onto the second set of predictions, and fittingly, these are of the two-wheel variety. 

A number of changes are coming to some of the biggest motorcycle championships in the world. Riders are switching manufacturers. Some are changing series. Plenty of riders are attempting to comeback from injuries. There is never a dull moment, and with that, we try to gaze into the future and predict what will happen in a form of motorsports that is constantly getting turned upside down. 

MotoGP

1. Marc Márquez longest sprint race winning streak will not be longer than five races

Márquez won 13 sprint races in 2025 before his season was cut short at the Indonesia round. He opened the season with six consecutive sprint victories before he was second in the Silverstone sprint race behind his brother Álex Márquez.

After Silverstone, Marc Márquez won the next seven sprint races. 

He might still be the best rider in the world in 2026, and Ducati still might be the best bike, but we surely are not going to see the same level of dominance. Right? He was on pace for 15.8889 sprint victories before his injury. Surely, he isn't going to repeat that. 

Even if he wins five consecutive sprint races multiple times during the 2026 season but never more than five, he would still have at most 19 sprint races victories. He could be super and still have this prediction come in correct. I think the competition will step up a level in 2026 and Márquez will winner fewer sprint races, but he could still even if he remains on top.

2. Aprilia has multiple multi-race winning streaks

Aprilia was halfway to this prediction at the end of 2025. Aprilia ended up winning three of the final four races, including the final two. Yes, these came without Marc Márquez on the grid, but Marco Bezzecchi was rising in the second-half of 2025, and Bezzecchi also won the British Grand Prix. Raúl Fernández won the Australian Grand Prix with Trackhouse, and we should be getting a healthy Jorge Martín back. 

If Martín and Bezzecchi combined to bring the fight to Ducati, it is not crazy to think Martín could win at Le Mans and Bezzecchi then win at Barcelona before later in the season seeing Martín win consecutive races at Misano and the Austrian Grand Prix. 

Add in the testing results with the end of the 2025 season, Aprilia is poising to be a threat, at least a greater one to Ducati.

3. Pedro Acosta will finish on the podium before either Ducati rider on a year-old bike

In the first 11 races of the 2025 season, Acosta had zero podium finishes. In the second 11 races, Acosta had five podium finishes. Next season, Fermín Aldeguer and Franco Morbidelli will be on the Ducati Desmosedici GP25, Aldeguer with Gresini and Morbidelli with VR46.

Aldeguer did have three podium finishes last year, and he won at Indonesia. Morbidelli had two third-place finishes in the first four races, and then he didn't finish on the podium again.

Acosta is doing more with less at KTM, a manufacturer that has plenty of financial concerns away from the racetrack. He was able to finish fourth in the championship, beating Francesco Bagnaia. Acosta could get on the podium in the first race from Thailand. I don't think his 2026 season will start as slowly as 2025 did.

4. Toprak Razgatlioglu will score majority of his points in the second half of the season

The World Superbike champion is heading to MotoGP in 2026, and Razgatlioglu will be on the Pramac Yamaha. 

Yamaha has not been in a great spot the last few seasons. Last year, Fabio Quartararo was ninth in the championship, but his only podium finish was second at Jerez. Jack Miller was the next closest Yamaha rider in 17th, 122 points behind Quartararo. Álex Rins had 68 points over the entire season while Miguel Oliveria had 43 points, though Oliveira missed four races. 

There will be a learning curve for Razgatlioglu. There will be a number of new circuits to him. He will be learning a new bike that might not be the most competitive. It could take a few rounds to adjust, but once he does, Razgatlioglu could start producing. The goal should be to beat Miller. If 80 points is enough, I think Razgatlioglu can get there.

5. A Honda rider cracks the championship top ten

This is the wild one because I am not sure what reasoning can be used to justify this other than Honda was better in 2025 and it was better across the board. 

Johan Zarco was vaulted up to 12th in the championship thanks in part to a victory at Le Mans and a second as Silverstone. Luca Marini was only six points behind Zarco. Joan Mir did get 15th in the championship and he was third at Motegi and Sepang. 

Somkiat Chantra has been replaced with Moto2 champion Diogo Moreira. I think there is enough consistency that can allow Zarco to sneak into the top ten. I would say Marini is the next likeliest rider to do it. It does fell like Mir is too prone to a fall to trust he can put enough results to snag tenth. Expecting the top ten out of Moreira is asking for too much.

6. Rookie and sophomore riders will combine to win at least 12 Moto2 races

During the 2025 Moto2 season, rookies and sophomores combined for 11 victories. 

Sophomore Diogo Moreira led the way with four victories. Senna Agius won twice. Deniz Öncü also won twice. 

Rookie Daniel Holgado won twice while David Alonso won in Hungary. 

That is a pretty good pull, but I would expect Holgado and Alonso to win more in 2026. They could win four or five races between them. Then you have José Antonio Rueda and Ángel Piqueras moving up from Moto3 after they finished 1-2 in the championship, and Taiyo Furusato is also moving up, and he ended the season with three consecutive podium finishes, including a victory in Malaysia.

Rueda will be returning after missing the last three Moto3 races due to injuries suffered during his formation lap crash with Noah Dettwiler. It will be curious to see Rueda's form, and he might not be quite in the position to compete for race victories. 

There could be a surprise winner. Collin Veijer or Iván Ortolá could win in their sophomore Moto2 season and contribute to this prediction. 

World Superbike

7. There will be at least two first-time winners

Toprak Razgatlioglu is gone. Jonathan Rea has retired. The grid has lost some fire power, and it has opened the door. 

The championship will still be Nicolò Bulega's to lose. Bulega was the one threat Razgalioglu faced on a regular basis over the last two seasons. Bulega is going to win a lion's share of the races, but the door will be open to others, like Bulega's Ducati teammate Iker Lecuona.

Lecuona moved over after four seasons at Honda which yielded only two position. The Ducati will only cure so much, but it will help Lecuona. 

There is also Miguel Oliveira, who essentially swapped seats with Razgatlioglu, and filled the BMW vacancy. 

Those are the two favorites, but there is also Andrea Iannone and Sam Lowes, two quick riders on smaller Ducati teams. Jake Dixon is moving to World Superbike with Honda after racing in Moto2. It is a stretch, but Dixon is a contender. Stefano Manzi is moving up with Yamaha after winning the World Supersport title.

With how World Superbike has gone for the better part of the last decade, it is hard to see this being a slam dunk, but it is a possibility.

8. Three British riders finish in the championship top ten

In 2025, Alex and Sam Lowes were sixth and eighth in the championship respectively. Both are remaining with their respective teams, Bimota for Alex and Elf Marc VDS Racing Team for Sam. I think another Brit joins them in the championship top ten.

The leader is Jake Dixon. Dixon won seven times in his Moto2 career, and that included two finishes in the championship top five. It could be Tarran Mackenzie, who was struggled to finish 19th in the championship last year, but Mackenzie switched teams and manufacturers midseason, leaving the Petronas MIE Racing Honda Team to join MGM Bonovo Racing Ducati outfit, where Mackenzie will start the 2026 season. 

In those 12 races with MGM Bonovo, Mackenzie had nine finishes in points after having four in all the first 18 races. 

We have had at least three British riders in the World Superbike championship top ten as recently as 2022 when Jonathan Rea was third, Alex Lowes was sixth and Scott Redding was eighth,

 9. A World Supersport round will be swept by a rider that does not end up as champion

Last season, there were three instances where a rider swept a weekend in World Supersport. All three of those were from champion Stefano Manzi.

Manzi will not be back in 2026, and World Supersport is in the midst of a competition revival. Someone else will sweep a weekend, but that rider will not be fortunate to be champion. 

Prior to 2025, there have been four consecutive seasons where a non-champion swept a weekend. Last season was only the second time since doubleheader weekend were introduced in 2020 that it did not happen.

SuperMotocross

10. The Lawrence brothers will combine for at least 20 podium finishes in the Supercross season

Both Lawrence brothers were injured and missed most of the 2025 Supercross season. They returned for the Motocross season and smoked the field with Jett taking another championship while Hunter was second. 

If they are both healthy for the entire Supercross season, they could repeat that performance. It is asking a lot. Hunter has yet to have a clean Supercross season in the 450cc class. We know Jett is brilliant, but in his one full season of Supercross, he had his low moments. 

In 2024, Jett did have ten podium finishes, eight of which were victories. It will require Jett at least matching that output and Hunter doing the same for this prediction to be correct. 

11. Four of the championship top five in Supercross will be different from 2025

Both Lawrence brother is returning from an injury-abbreviated 2025 Supercross season. 

Eli Tomac is returning and he will be at KTM. Jorge Prado will be Tomac's teammate at KTM, along with Aaron Plessinger, as the Spaniard makes his second attempt at a full Supercross season. Jason Anderson is also returning and has moved to Suzuki. 

That is five notable riders returning from injury, and four you feel confident could crack the championship top five. 

We haven't even mentioned RJ Hampshire, who is moving up to the 450cc class and scheduled to be on the Husqvarna alongside Stewart. Hampshire was fifth in the 450cc Motocross season, but he suffered a broken scapula and ribs in a training accident during the offseason.

There will be a shakeup, but it will be a contentious battle. Cooper Webb is the defending champion and remains teammates with Justin Cooper. Chase Sexton made a late push for the title last year, and Sexton has now moved to Kawasaki. Malcolm Stewart is coming off his best season of his career and ended 2025 with a victory at the Paris Supercross event. Ken Roczen should be back, though he too missed races due to injury. However, missing the final two rounds did not cost Roczen fifth in the championship.

It is difficult to imagine it will be a straight line change with five guys in and five guys out. I cannot see either Lawrence brother missing. Tomac is a question mark, but he had finished in the Supercross championship top five for ten consecutive seasons prior to last year, and he was third in the Motocross championship. Prado could be a surprise, and Anderson is always suffocatingly consistent. 

We can at least feel confident that 2026 will not look identical to 2025.

12. Aaron Plessinger will not have the most third-place finishes in Supercross

Speaking of riders who were not in the top five of the Supercross championship last year, Plessinger was sixth, and he did win in Foxborough. However, one of the reasons Plessinger was sixth in the championship is he had the most third-place finishes in 2025. 

Four times was Plessinger the third-place finisher. Chase Sexton, Justin Cooper and Jason Anderson each had three third-place finishes. 

With the number of riders returning after missing most of the 2025 season, I don't see how Plessinger will finish third that many times. I am not sure he is going to be better than third among the KTM riders. He may get on the podium a few times, but I don't think it will be consistent enough to end up with the most third-place finishes for a second consecutive season.

NASCAR predictions, check. Motorcycle predictions, check. We get a little break, and soon we will be giving out some presents before resuming predictions.