Monday, November 3, 2025

Musings From the Weekend: A Hollow Ending

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Nicolò Bulega will replace Marc Márquez for the final two MotoGP rounds at Ducati. Cadillac announced its IMSA lineup for 2026 with Wayne Taylor Racing, and Colton Herta will contest the three longest endurance races. If Herta has enough time to run those, then I think he will have enough time to run the Indianapolis 500, which occurs during a six-week break for Formula Two. Speaking of Herta and Formula Two, he tested a car at Monza in the wet. Felipe Massa is chasing after money. Mathieu Jaminet is leaving Porsche. Marco Andretti has retired from racing. The only thing that has been on my mind has been Phoenix, and I have been thinking all week.

A Hollow Ending
Leading into the NASCAR finale and the three championship-deciding races, as there was much consternation over how the three races would play out and who would be champion in each series, it was another season of soul-searching over what you believe a champion should be, and what feels right. 

As we went into this weekend worried that in two series drivers who smashed the competition since February could possibly lose titles despite being statistically better than everyone across, many questions floated in my mind and some floated over the airwaves, and the truth is the world is not black-and-white. There are no absolutes, whether that is in daily life occurrences or how a NASCAR champion should be decided.

Are You OK if the Driver with the Most Victories Doesn't Win the Championship? Yeah... Kind Of.

The question above came to mind because we went into this weekend with Connor Zilisch and Corey Heim miles ahead of everyone in victories in NASCAR's second division and the Truck Series respectively, but those two were miles ahead of everyone across the board. It is no doubt who the best two drivers were this season in those two series. But I don't believe a championship should be as cut-and-dry as "Who won the most races?"

Let's cover right here that in no way am I saying it is a good thing Zilisch lost his championship nor would it have been fine if Heim had lost the Truck title. 

But motorsports is a little more complex, and there are circumstances where I can live if the driver who won the most races wasn't champion. 

Motorsports is wonky. Driver A could win ten races in a season, but then in the other 26 races finish 30th or worse. Is it clear as day that driver should be champion? Maybe not if Driver B only won twice, but finished in the top three of all 36 races. 

Yes, Driver A won ten times, an incredible achievement, but 26 finishes of 30th or worse is glaring. Driver B, who had an average finish that could have been no worse 2.889 over an entire season despite winning 80% fewer races, seems championship worthy, especially when you consider the other driver could not have an average finish better than 18.4.

That is what motorsports is. One driver can be Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, either gloriously on top or in the gutter. Another driver can be tortoise, slow and steady and coming out at the front all the time. When crowning a champion and taking into consideration a full season of results, it could lead to such circumstances, and that is understandable.

Even in a more practical outcome where a driver wins eight races and loses the championship to a driver who only four times, there are circumstances where you can look at the four-time winner as being the better driver only the entire season. It isn't absolute. 

However, in the case of Zilisch and Heim, it was. No one was close to them in their respective series. Heim's season was practically flawless, and he capped it off with his 12th victory of the season at Phoenix. Zilisch had a slow start but he also had 20 top five finishes and 23 top ten finishes in 32 starts. He lost the championship because a "bad day" in the finale was finishing third. 

Winning does matter, and it should be rewarded more, but if you want it to mean more than finishing second and third and fourth and so on, then you need to make every position worth proportionately less.

NASCAR's issue has always been not that winning isn't worth enough but finishing second and so on is worth too much. 

From 1975 to 2003, a victory earned a driver 175 points, plus five more for leading at least one lap, so 180 points. Second-place paid a minimum of 170 points. In that case, second-place is worth 94.44% of a victory. Third-place was worthy 91.667% of a victory. Tenth-place was worth 74.44%. It wasn't until you reached 25th position that someone scored less than half what the winner got.

Even after NASCAR made the change in 2011 and awarded a point per position with a few extra for winning a race, it didn't fix the proportional problem of the points system. A winner was now scoring at least 47 points with second earning a minimum of 42 points. Second-place was still earning 89.36% of a victory. Tenth was worth 72.34%, and now 21st was the first position where someone scored less than half the winner's total. 

A change is coming to the championship format for NASCAR, but if everyone is afraid of a championship coming down to a driver just finishing eighth in every race and not trying to win, then make eighth worth significantly less than a victory. 

In IndyCar, second-place is worth 80% of a victory. Fifth is only worth 60%, and seventh-place is the first position that pays less than half the winner's total. Tenth is only worthy 40%. If Formula One, second is worth 72%, third is worth 60% and fourth is worth 48%. 

It doesn't come down to whether or not the champion is determined via a full-season aggregate or if there are resets or playoff points or whatever, but it also comes down to how NASCAR distributes points, and if it wants winning to be worth more, it must make finishing second on down worth less.

Pay 100 points to the winner, 70 for second, 50 for third and then go 40-35-30-25-20-15-12-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 with maybe everyone 21st and worse also getting one point because NASCAR gives out participation points anyway. And get rid of stage points because it dilutes a finishing position. You reward winning but you also do not incentivize finishing seventh or eighth every weekend.

Give me a day to work out the math and we will see what this could hypothetically could have looked like.

The NASCAR finale has become less satisfying over each of the last 12 seasons. It made the finale "winner-take-all" for a "game seven moment," but in the process it took all the joy out of the season. More and more a season ends and it feels like we know less about what we just witnessed. We aren't sure who was the best, which a champion is supposed to determine. Did the best driver win the Cup championship this year? In a season where there was no outstanding driver, you could make a case that any of six could have been champion, but none of them are compelling. You aren't sure what matters. Race victories? Top five finishes? Laps led? Average finish? Who was the best this season? Playoffs have muddy the waters and not for the better.

Everything boils down to one race, but when the system tosses out everything that happened prior to it, the champion becomes a toss-up. The fate of a caution and the decision to take two tires over four determined the Cup champion. It could happen under any system, but in this one it is a hollow way for the title to be decided. The finale is isn't a race that confirms what we saw over an entire season. It is one result that determines how the history book recognizes a season, even if it doesn't add up.

Champions From the Weekend
You know about Corey Heim, but did you...

Kyle Larson won the NASCAR Cup Series championship with a third-place finish at Phoenix.

Jesse Love won the NASCAR Grand National Series Championship with a victory at Phoenix.

The #1 TGR Team au TOM's Toyota of Sho Tsuboi and Kenta Yamashita won the Super GT GT500 championship with a victory in the Motegi finale.

The #65 K2 R&D LEON Racing Mercedes-AMG of Naoya Gamou and Togo Suganami won the Super GT GT300 championship with a sixth-place finish at Motegi.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Corey Heim, Jesse Love, Sho Tsuboi and Kenta Yamashita, but did you know...

Ryan Blaney won the NASCAR Cup race from Phoenix, his fourth victory of the season.

The #5 Team Mach Toyota of Iori Kimura and Yusuke Shiotsu won in GT300 at the Motegi Super GT finale.

Coming Up This Weekend
MotoGP will be in Portugal.
Formula One is in another Lusophone nation for a sprint weekend in Brazil.
The FIA World Endurance Championship concludes its season with an eight-hour race in Bahrain.
Rally Japan takes places as the penultimate round of the World Rally Championship.


Friday, October 31, 2025

Best of the Month: October 2025

How is October already over? I swear we were just capping off September and remeniscing about the summer that had just concluded while enjoying the early days of autumn. I could have sworn it had only been a month since the most recent IndyCar race. Now it has been two, the sun is setting by 6:00 p.m., and soon we are turning the clocks back an hour and it will be dark by the time you finish your lunch. 

The calendar is thinning out. A number of championships are over. A few more are ending this weekend. It does mean weekends are less cluttered. There is an excitement in this time of year. Much is gained even though we consider this a period of loss.

Title-Worthy
Two drivers should be champions, but there is a chance neither will win a title, and we should give those drivers their due, because Corey Heim and Connor Zilisch have been brilliant, and the fact it is a question either could lose a championship is criminal. 

In a few hours, we will know whether or not Heim will win the NASCAR Truck Series championship. No one has been close to Heim this season. He broke the record for victories in a single Truck season with 11. He has led over 1,500 laps and he has led over 1,000 laps more than the next most in the Truck Series this season. In the last ten races, he has not finished worse than third. Are you kidding me? Heim has achieved the greatest Truck Series season ever, and we go to the finale with him level on points with three other drivers who have won a combined one race, and none of them have won since Good Friday. 

May the best finisher take the title!

Zilisch has won ten times in NASCAR's second division, and he has done it as a rookie. He won the third race of the season at Austin, but that was a bright spot in a rather rough first third of the season. It was his only top five finish in the first 11 races. He injured his back at Talladega, which forced him to miss a race. After that, Zilisch had 18 consecutive top five finishes! He won a race, fell off his car, broken his collarbone and then won the next race though he spent about 90% of it on the pit box. He had a three-race winning streak and he had a four-race winning streak this season. Zilisch has won at Indianapolis, Watkins Glen, Daytona, Portland and the Charlotte roval. His 19 top five finishes are five more than the next closest driver. 

We know NASCAR is on the verge of changing its championship format again. The seasons from Heim and Zilisch have been further proof of how flawed the current system is.

There has been no question who the best drivers have been this year in the lower two divisions. We don't need a playoff to prove that. We don't need to reset the points. No one has been all that close to these two drivers. No one has kept pace with either of these drivers on any track discipline. As dramatic as the finales could be, there is only one satisfying result in each series. 

Carson Kvapil has yet to win a race in NASCAR's second division. Kvapil has fewer than half of Zilisch's top five finish total. At no point has anyone considered him close to the best driver this season. Justin Allgaier is one of four drivers with at least three victories this season. He hasn't won since May. Jesse Love won the season opener at Daytona, and he hasn't had a top five finish in the playoffs! Kvapil has finished 15th more times this playoffs (three times) than he has finished in the top five (twice).

Tyler Ankrum won the Truck race at Rockingham, but he hasn't led a lap since Texas, the following race. That was May 2! Ty Majeski and Kaden Honeycutt enter this finale winless. Majeski or Honeycutt will at best have won 91% fewer races than Heim this season, and Majeski will at best have about 45% fewer top five finishes. Honeycutt has three top five finishes this season. He has led only 51 laps.

Are we kidding ourselves? 

Everyone else has been a distant challenger this season, thoroughly outclassed. Awarding them a championship because this is how the format works is a hollow reason. It would be a pretty meaningless award. The name would be in the record book, but history will forget who was the champion because it was not an honorable title. 

It is a one-race finale. Anything can happen. It is agonizing to think Heim and/or Zilisch could lose a championship this weekend when both should have been mathematically wrapped up weeks ago. The disappointing thing is if either win, the prevailing emotion will be relief, not awe over what we witnessed.

Farewells
With the end of any season comes a few farewells as drivers retire. A few names should be recognized and we will remain in the NASCAR Truck Series. 

Phoenix marks the final race of Matt Crafton's career. Crafton debuted on October 28, 2000 at Fontana. He hasn't missed a Truck race since. That is over 25 years of Truck races! It is 591 races to be specific with the Phoenix finale being 592. No driver has started more Truck races than Crafton. No one else has made more than 360 Truck starts. I don't think anyone is coming close to Crafton's record. 

Crafton is the last of his kind, a Truck Series original, a talented short track racer who found a living on the national stage in the Truck Series. That is what the Truck Series was for its first decade or so of existence. It brought together talent drivers from the West, East, South, and Midwest who weren't getting noticed or didn't have the budget for other national rides. These drivers were able to making a comfortable living. Career truck drivers are few to come by. Ty Majeski is fitting that mold, as is Ben Rhodes, but the series has not been meant for these kind of drivers for quite some time. 

As good as Crafton was, he didn't re-write the record book. He only won 15 times in 25 full seasons. While he won six races in 2015, that was his only time he won more than two races in a season. It took him 178 races to get his first career victory. He was a three-time champion, one of those was in a winless season (thanks playoffs!). Only Ron Hornaday and Jack Sprague won at least three Truck titles. In its current form, the Truck Series is not meant for a driver to become a three-time champion. 

The last few years have been tough to watch as Crafton has become the series grouch, picking fights for the sake of picking fights. He hasn't won since the middle of 2020. He likely will not end with a victory. Crafton doesn't have a top five finish this season, and he has only one in the last 52 races. There is something to appreciate in the longevity of a career. We will not see many other drivers like Crafton again. 

Another semi-NASCAR-related retirement is Brad Sweet, who announced he would step away from full-time sprint car racing at the end of this year. A five-time World of Outlaw champion and winner of the 2018 Knoxville Nationals, Sweet came up through USAC while racing against Bryan Clauson, Kody Swanson, Cole Whitt, Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell, a time when all those drivers were NASCAR prospects with big futures. 

Sweet had a cup of coffee in the NASCAR ranks, only starting 18 Truck races over three seasons and 36 race in NASCAR's second division in the same timespan. He had decent support with Kasey Kahne, who Sweet had driven for in dirt racing, and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. at JR Motorsports. The results were promising but he never took the full plunge into NASCAR and went on to become one of the best dirt racers in the last decade. It is curious to think how different Sweet's career could have been if there had been more backing for him to try NASCAR. He was plenty capable.

Finally, jumping from dirt racing to Japan, Tsugio Matsuda announced he would retire after the Super GT finale from Motegi this weekend, ending a 28-year career dating back to Japanese Formula Three. Matsuda has not missed a Super GT race since Sportsland SUGO on July 27, 2008. That is the only race he has missed since making his debut on September 10, 2000 at Okayama. 

Racing for Nissan since 2006, Matsuda was twice Super GT's GT500 champion, and his 25 victories are the all-time record in the series. 

Beyond Super GT, Matsuda was rather successful in Super Formula, winning consecutive championships in 2007 and 2008, one of four drivers to win consecutive titles in the series. Outside of Japan, Matsuda dabbled in sports car racing, and was a driver in the infamous Nissan GT-R LM Nismo LMP1 program, competing in the cars only race at the 2015 24 Hours of Le Mans. Matsuda did win in the LMP2 class at the 2014 Austin round in the World Endurance Championship.

Like many of the Japanese drivers of the early 21st century, my first exposure to them would have been through Gran Turismo and the Super GT cars included in the games, which then led to further exploration of their careers and the domestic racing series in the country. Matsuda stands out as a talent in the highest forms of single-seater racing and sports car racing, even if he predominantly competed on the other side of the world.

November Preview
Let's stay in Japan because the Super Formula championship will be decided over the weekend of November 22-23 at Suzuka, but the final weekend was in the news this week. On Monday, Super Formula announced Suzuka would host a third race to make up for the cancelled second race from the previous round at Fuji. 

Fog prevented the second race of the Fuji weekend from taking place on October 12. In an unprecedented move, Super Formula has rescheduled a previously cancelled race, and it will have a triple-header weekend. The standard races will be held at their usual times on Saturday and Sunday afternoon. The makeup race will be on Sunday morning, and it will be 19 laps or a 50-minute race with no mandatory pit stop. The grid will be set based on the qualifying results from Fuji. 

This means the final weekend will have 66 points on the table, 20 points for the three races victories, and three points for each pole position in the other two races. This means six drivers are still mathematically alive for the championship. 

Sho Tsuboi leads with 104.5 points, 14.5 points clear of Kakunoshin Ohta and Ayuma Iwasa. Tadasuke Makino is 23.5 points back while Tomoi Nojiri is 41 points off Tsuboi. Sacha Fenestraz remains alive, but Fenestraz is 57.5 points back. 

Tsuboi is looking for his second consecutive championship, and he has won two races this season. Ohta has won the most races this season with three but he has finished seventh or worse in five of nine races contested. Iwasa has the most podium finishes with six, but only one of those has been a victory. Makino had three podium finishes in the first four races, two of which were victories, but he has not been on the podium since. Nojiri has yet to win, but he has three podium finishes and he has won four pole positions. Fenestraz remained alive with a victory in the only Fuji round contested last month, though only half points were awarded for that race. 

Nojiri is going for his third championship after he won in 2021 and 2022. He has finished in the top three of the championship in four consecutive seasons. The other four championship challengers have never won a Super Formula championship. Fenestraz has a slim chance of being the first international champion since Nick Cassidy won the 2019 title. Cassidy is the only non-Japanese champion in the last 13 seasons. The only other South American champion was João Paulo de Oliveira in 2010.

Other events of note in November:
NASCAR ends this weekend in Phoenix.
The FIA World Endurance Championship ends next week at Bahrain. 
The World Rally Championship has two rounds remaining, Japan and Saudi Arabia.
Supercars has two rounds remaining, Sandown and Adelaide.
MotoGP will be on the Iberian peninsula.
Formula One has races in Brazil, Las Vegas and Qatar.


Wednesday, October 29, 2025

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Chip Ganassi Racing's 2025 Season

Our final IndyCar Wrap-Up has brought us to the champions, and for the third consecutive year it is Chip Ganassi Racing. For the third consecutive year, it is Álex Palou responsible for the crown. This time it is after an all-time great season. We always knew Palou was great. The year 2025 will be forever tied to the astonishing ability of Palou the way we tie 1964 to A.J. Foyt, 1969 to Mario Andretti and 1994 to Al Unser, Jr. and Team Penske. It has been six years with Palou, and we are just getting started.

Álex Palou
What else can be said? We went into this year fully expecting Palou to be the man to beat and difficult to topple at that. It is not surprising Palou won it all, but it was remarkable to see how he won this championship. We thought we had seen his best in 2023, but this year fully blew that out of the water.

What objectively was his best race?
Palou won eight times. No driver had won eight races in a season since 2007 with Sébastien Bourdais. For Palou, he opened with consecutive victories at St. Petersburg and Thermal Club. Then he was second at Long Beach. He followed that with victories at Barber Motorsports Park, the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, and the greatest of them all, the Indianapolis 500. 

Over the final 11 races, he won only a measly three times: Road America, the second Iowa race and Laguna Seca..

What subjectively was his best race?
Álex Palou needed an Indianapolis 500 victory. At least, he was going to need one. It was best to get it out of the way now. Three championships and about a dozen victories is a good career for a driver through five seasons and at 28 years of age, but the Indianapolis 500 question is not one you want to carry into your 30s. That gives you a decade to give you one before your 40s. If you don't get it by then, you likely never will. 

All the champions before him had one. Josef Newgarden had won consecutive "500s." Scott Dixon has one from over a decade ago. Will Power has one. Simon Pagenaud has one. Palou was the only champion since reunification without an Indianapolis 500 victory, and none of his title-less contemporaries who we see as the best in the series had won one yet either. Patricio O'Ward had come close. Colton Herta had never factored. For Palou, an Indianapolis 500 could get him everything before any of his rivals had anything. 

This is all window-dressing, setting the scene for the story and the importance of this victory. It has nothing to do with the drive itself. 

Truthfully, Palou winning at Indianapolis might not have been one of his three most impressive victories of the season. He had to chase down O'Ward at Thermal Club. He smacked down the field at Barber. At Road America, he pedaled the car in a way only few can. Seven million people do not tune in for those races. 

It was meant to be. Palou didn't have to punish the competition with 185 of 200 laps led. He didn't have to be leading the field for the entire race. All he had to do, all he ever has to do, is remain in the picture, and there he was in the top five. There he was as pit cycles came and went and cautions mixed up strategy. He methodically made up ground, and when it came time for the run to home, he was second with Marcus Ericsson ahead. 

Ericsson has a swift set of hands at the Speedway, but Palou is the best IndyCar has, one of the best IndyCar has ever seen. He didn't wait to make his move. Palou took the lead with a late pass into turn one with 14 laps to go. If anyone was going to beat him, they would have to pass him, and he had all the confidence in the world that no one was going to be able to do that. 

What objectively was his worst race?
It was seven days after his Indianapolis 500 triumph when David Malukas botched braking into turn one at Detroit and pushed Palou into the barriers, ending a top ten day and what could have been a top five finish. Palou was classified in 25th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is Detroit, and it wasn't his fault. The only other race where Palou didn't factor was Toronto where he was caught in the pit cycles and was shuffled back to 12th, never really contending for more. Toronto was the only other race he finished outside the top ten. 

Everyone thought the title fight was on after Toronto, especially since O'Ward won the race. Then Palou slapped the field silly on the way to victory at Laguna Seca, and then he clinched the title the race after that in Portland. 

Álex Palou's 2025 Statistics
Championship Position: 1st (711 points)
Wins: 8
Podiums: 13
Top Fives: 14
Top Tens: 15
Laps Led: 778
Poles: 6
Fast Sixes: 11
Fast Twelves: 12
Average Start: 33.352
Average Finish: 4.0588

Scott Dixon
It is Scott Dixon. How do you think his season went? He was at the front. He rarely did anything wrong. The results were normally positive, but we did not see Dixon be a strong presence and show up as a driver to beat on a regular basis. He was there but he was not the man to beat.

What objectively was his best race?
Scott Dixon did win a race in 2025, but it came in a race his teammate dominated. Álex Palou looked set to conquer Mid-Ohio in convincing fashion. Then Palou ran wide in turn nine and went off track. This allowed Dixon to slip through with six laps to go and take an unexpected victory.

What subjectively was his best race?
Dixon probably should have won at St. Petersburg. He was leading after everyone had cycled through their alternate tire stint. However, Dixon had no radio communication to his team and was unsure when to make his final pit stop, running until the fuel reserve light came on.

This forced Dixon to run long before his final stop, which allowed Palou to cycle to the lead after the pit cycle was through. Dixon still finished second when most drivers likely would have suffered dearly trying to manage strategy on their own. It was incredible he finished second even if it felt like it should have been one spot better. 

What objectively was his worst race?
A brake caliber issue forced an extra long pit stop for the repair during the Indianapolis 500. The change comes as the race is about to restart after a caution. Dixon lost three laps and never made any of those back, finishing 20th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is Indianapolis. Dixon finished 12th or better in every other race. He had another damn good season.

Scott Dixon's 2025 Statistics
Championship Position: 3rd (452 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 3
Top Fives: 6
Top Tens: 12
Laps Led: 91
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 7
Average Start: 12.647
Average Finish: 8.2941

Kyffin Simpson
For a sophomore season while teamed with two of the greatest drivers in IndyCar history, it was going to be hard to be impressed with whatever Simpson accomplished. However, there were a handful of races where Simpson clearly made a big step from his rookie year. Though I don't think anyone will be mistaking him for one of his teammates anytime soon.

What objectively was his best race?
Starting on the alternate tire and using an alternate strategy, Simpson was able to jump from 13th to third at Toronto. A long middle stint, 42 laps to be exact, allowed him to pull off an impressive result.

What subjectively was his best race?
It sounds odd to say a tenth at Mid-Ohio was Simpson's best result when he had a third at Toronto, he was fourth at Nashville, and a fifth at Detroit, but Simpson had pure pace to challenge for the podium at Mid-Ohio. Unfortunately, Simpson stalled on his final stop. Then he hit one of Rinus VeeKay's pit crew members. This led to a drive-through penalty, but Simpson drove back into the top ten despite the punishment. 

It could have been much better, but Simpson drove sensationally well to salvage a respectable result. 

What objectively was his worst race?
Twice was Simpson classified 27th. At the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Simpson's car would not start on the grid, and he was unable to participate, leaving him classified in 27th. At Laguna Seca, Simpson mistimed his braking into turn five and plowed into Felix Rosenqvist on the opening lap. Simpson's race was over, and he had a six-grid spot penalty in the next race at Portland for his action.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Laguna Seca was a bad error, and it was all on him. Simpson didn't make many errors in 2025. This one stands above all of them.

Kyffin Simpson's 2025 Statistics
Championship Position: 17th (293 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 3
Top Tens: 6
Laps Led: 6
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 4
Average Start: 16.235
Average Finish: 15.176

An Early Look Ahead
It is Chip Ganassi Racing. They will be fine. They are probably going to win the championship again. I don't know if there is any reason to waste your time and write about 500 to 800 words about the outlook for Chip Ganassi Racing's 2026 season. 

It is simple: They are going to win, they are going to win a handful of times, maybe even score two handfuls of victories, and Álex Palou will likely have a fifth championship to his name. If he doesn't, he will probably still be one of the top three drivers in the season and he will likely lose to a Team Penske driver, Patricio O'Ward, or maybe Scott Dixon is the one to knock off his teammate. 

Could 2026 be the year Dixon falls off? Maybe. Could 2026 be another year where Dixon wins once, has a half-dozen top five finishes and 14 top ten finishes? Probably. There is nothing to suggest the former is imminent. We know nothing lasts forever. Dixon could wake up tomorrow and decide he has one more year in him. We will cross that bridge when we get there. 

As for Simpson, just have fun kid. Go see if you can crack the top fifteen in the championship. We are not expecting much more than that.

I end with this: It is hard to imagine Palou matching or exceeding this season. There is a reason why there have only been four occasions where a driver has won nine races and it had been nearly two decades since someone won eight times. This was a special season. We might not see it for another two decades. Palou isn't going anywhere, and he isn't even 30 years old, but I don't think we are going to see him threaten to win ten races every season for the next ten years. He will be like every other great driver before him.

A.J. Foyt didn't win a half-dozen races every season. Neither did Mario Andretti, Al Unser, Bobby Unser, Rick Mears, Johnny Rutherford, Michael Andretti, Al Unser, Jr., Alex Zanardi, Dario Franchitti, Scott Dixon and Will Power. 

Every driver has this period of sheer control, but they always come down to earth. They still might be the best, but they will not look untouchable forever. 

However, nothing suggests Palou is going to be coming down anytime soon.



Monday, October 27, 2025

Musings From the Weekend: The Playoff Future

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Marc Márquez decided he would not return for any of the remaining rounds of the 2025 MotoGP season. We will see him in 2026. Álex Márquez locked up second in the championship, clinching a Márquez brother 1-2, and Álex won in Malaysia. Nicolò Bulega would be in line for a wild card entry on the Ducati for the final few MotoGP rounds. A few IndyCar teams announced partnerships with Road to Indy programs, which we should talk about at a later date. Nine rookies took part in first free practice from Mexico City, and Patricio O'Ward did well before getting ill. An 11-time race winner could really lose the NASCAR Truck Series championship, and that feels wrong, which leads us to what has been on my mind, and it has been on my mind for some time.

The Playoff Future
Much of 2025 has been spent talking about championship format in NASCAR. The last few seasons have left people unsatisfied with the title winner, notably in the Cup Series. In the last two years, the Cup champion has had eight top five finishes (Ryan Blaney) and seven top five finishes (Joey Logano). Those are the lowest two totals since the first two Cup champions, Red Byron in 1949 and Bill Rexford in 1950, two seasons that were made up of eight races and 19 races respectively. 

Joey Logano's average finish of 17.2 last season was the worst ever for a Cup champion. Someone has to have the worst, but it wasn't a case of 2024 being a down year for the entire grid. It was a case of the format allowing Logano to have a prayer when he wasn't a top ten driver for practically the entire season. 

NASCAR formed a playoff committee ahead of the 2025 season to discuss what could be done in terms of the format and how things could be done differently to improve how the champion is the decided. 

Over this year, we have seen a number of trial balloons floated, whether or not they are seriously being considered remains a mystery. The biggest thing everyone wants to get away from is the championship coming down to a one-race, best-finisher-takes-the-crown title decider. Ultimately, the finale is all that decides the champion in this current format. The rest of the races determine who the four contenders are, but then it comes down to who finishes better out of that four-driver group in one race. It has allowed for a team to take the championship and just nail that final race while timing victories to advance from ech round. Winning nine of the first 35 races and having no one come close to matching your output does not matter when one race decides the championship. 

Some say the playoffs could become a 3-3-4 format, something the Dutch will appreciate. The first two rounds remain the same length, perhaps the playoff field is cut from 16 to eight after round one, but instead of having a three-race semifinal round before the finale, the final round will be four races with the champion decided on a points aggregate. 

Another balloon that Dale Earnhardt, Jr. floated out was a 5-5 split of the playoffs. Five races to set the final round, and a five-race series to determine the champion. How many drivers make the final round and how they are decided was not expanded upon. Even playoff qualifications on how to determine the 16 drivers are up in the air as the win-and-in model could be dropped with more spots guaranteed on points from the regular season. 

The biggest surprises has come in the last month or so, and for the first time in 22 years, a full season aggregate appears to be on the table. On the NASCAR-producded podcast Hauler Talk, which features NASCAR managing director of racing communication Mike Forde as one of the hosts, Forde addressed that during a playoff committee meeting, several individuals supported returning to a full season aggregate. It even led to Earnhardt, Jr. voicing support for the return, but his arrival to such a conclusion should be addressed.

This year's playoffs has not been a banger for NASCAR in terms of viewership. Every race has been essentially down, and significantly down with races now receiving fewer than two million viewers. Even though the races are on cable, it is far below past viewership numbers for cable playoff races, whether those were on ESPN, NBCSN or USA. 

Earnhardt, Jr.'s reason for supporting a return to a full season aggregate: "We have nothing to lose." 

NASCAR is a long way from the glory days of 15-20 years ago. The Cup Series has fallen to television viewership of the 1990s. The playoffs do not generate interest as intended. More people aren't tuning in to see who will be champion. They obviously do not care even if these races have greater stakes with drivers making more desperate and aggressive moves. 

Everyone hit rock-bottom after the weekend of October 12 when the NHRA Texas Nationals drew greater television viewership with over two million people watching on Fox while the NASCAR Cup race from Las Vegas had 1.872 million viewers on UA. The NHRA benefitted from being preceded by 1:00 p.m. NFL games while the Las Vegas race was on cable and didn't start until after 5:30 p.m. Eastern, but there was a time when a NASCAR Cup race would get four million viewers on cable no matter when the race took place. 

Change is coming. We aren't sure what that change will be. 

It does feel like some tough conversations are being had. For over 20 years, NASCAR insinuated it needed a playoff to make the championship more compelling and keep viewers engaged through the end of the season, especially as races went head-to-head with football. For the first decade of playoffs, it tinkered with the format. In 2014, it adopted its most aggressive format to date and a complete departure from how championships had been decided over the first 60 years of NASCAR. 

However, the winner-take-all, elimination format has not kept people interested. It has not turned some heads who otherwise would not be watching. At no point since 2014 has NASCAR stolen the attention of the sports world even if it was for one day with the championship finale. It isn't going to beat football in any of the ten weeks, but it does have the possibility to at least capture more attention for a week or two. That has never been the case.

The best NASCAR ever did was catching a rain-delay before the 2015 finale, which was Jeff Gordon's final race as a full-time driver, and Gordon had a shot to end his career as a champion. The rain delayed the Cup race into the start of the Sunday Night Football. Jimmie Johnson's seventh championship the following year did well in terms of viewership, but every year since 2015 has seen the viewership shrink. 

No one was curious to see if Martin Truex, Jr. could hang on with Furniture Row Racing in 2017. The years of the "Big 3" with Truex, Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick in 2018 and 2019 didn't see rating tick upward. NASCAR's most popular driver didn't increase viewership in 2020. Kyle Larson's historic 2021 season was not something the average sports fan felt compelled to watch. 

Even after the "viral moment" of Ross Chastain driving into the wall at Martinsville to pass all the cars necessary to make the championship race in 2022, which was shown on SportsCenter and shared around the world on social media, viewership was down a smidge from the year before with 3.213 million viewers compared to 3.214 million in 2021. The last two finales have had fewer than three million viewers.

It is an adjustment to be staring at a possible return to a full season aggregate after how the last two decades have gone, but especially the last ten years. NASCAR felt so far removed from what we had prior to 2004 that there didn't feel like a chance we would go back to that, at least not this suddenly. I don't think we are going to see it happen. We are going to see some modified elimination format with a multi-race final round to determine a champion. 

NASCAR has tied itself too much to a playoff identity that it will not entirely give it up, but it is acknowledging a flaw to a system it hung its hat on in terms of drama. For all the drama playoffs has created, the number of eyeballs watching has not justified its existence, nor has it justified the hollowness of some of these champions who have not felt like an accurate representation of entire seasons. 

NASCAR has nothing to lose, but that doesn't mean it has anything to gain either. Adopting a full season aggregate to decide the champion isn't going to double the viewership, even if the championship does go to the finale. It is not as simple as the snap of the fingers and the problems are solved. The issues are deeper than the championship format. 

People need a reason to care about those who are competing. It is what Formula One has found with Drive to Survive. There has been an outlet to expose an audience to who the drivers are, and the audience has made a connection with them to a point where they are willing to tune in for 24 races a season. Until NASCAR finds that breakthrough, and the drivers become individuals people feel attached to it will not matter one iota how the champion is decided.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Álex Márquez, but did you know...

Lando Norris won the Mexican Grand Prix, his sixth victory of the season, and Norris has a one-point in the World Drivers' Championship over Oscar Piastri.

Francesco Bagnaia won MotoGP's sprint race from Malaysia. Jake Dixon won in Moto2, his third victory of the season. Taiyo Furusato won in Moto3, his first career grand prix victory.

William Byron won the NASCAR Cup race from Phoenix, his third victory of the season. Taylor Gray won the Grand National Series race, his first career victory. Corey Heim won the Truck Series race, his 11th victory of the season.

Chaz Mostert swept the Supercars races from Surfers Paradise.

Coming Up This Weekend
NASCAR championships are awarded in Phoenix.
The Super GT season closes at Motegi.


Thursday, October 23, 2025

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Arrow McLaren's 2025 Season

Our penultimate IndyCar Wrap-Up has us at Arrow McLaren, which is coming off arguably its best season since McLaren joined the fray ahead of the 2020 season. McLaren had two drivers at the top of the championship, and for the first time it felt like the team had a driver combination capable of winning races. Only one driver won, but that likely will not be the case moving forward. McLaren ended up coming closest to Álex Palou, but like the rest of the field, it has work to do to close that gap.

Patricio O'Ward
For the last few seasons, O'Ward has been at the top of IndyCar but has never firmly grasped being the best in the series. It is hard to do considering the competition, but on a few occasions, O'Ward would slip in his own right and let days get away from him. In 2025, O'Ward had his best IndyCar season. Everyone was competing for second, and O'Ward drove consistent enough to earn that spot.

What objectively was his best race?
O'Ward took two victories this season. The first was the first Iowa race where a slightly quicker pit stop allowed him to overtake Josef Newgarden through the final pit cycle after Newgarden had led the first 232 laps. The other was at Toronto where stopping early and having each caution go his way allowed O'Ward to win from tenth on the grid.

What subjectively was his best race?
It was neither of his victories. It is actually a race that got away from him. At Thermal Club, O'Ward was on for a banger of a day. He had driven to over a ten-second lead over Álex Palou, and it looked like O'Ward was set to win in convincing fashion with 64 of 65 laps led from pole position with fastest lap to boot. 

The only problem is O'Ward's team decided to end on the primary tire compound while Palou had a fresh set of alternate tires. Palou erased the ten-second deficit in seven laps before opening up a margin of victory over ten seconds to O'Ward. 

Not often does a driver lose a race and it was his subjective best, but this one came down to tire strategy, and I don't fault O'Ward nor his team for thinking a primary set of tires would be enough to hold on to a ten-second lead with 16 laps remaining. O'Ward drove a splendid race. Palou's team had an ace up its sleeve and it paid off. 

It would have been wrong to ignore O'Ward's day at Thermal Club because it was rather impressive, and it was going to be an early statement from him and the McLaren team until Palou stole the show.

What objectively was his worst race?
The championship ended at Portland when wiring issues caused O'Ward to slow on lap 21 and it ended any hope of keeping the championship alive into Milwaukee. O'Ward ended up ten laps down in 25th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Nashville was likely O'Ward's best race of the season, but with how it ended, and how it ended O'Ward's season, it is hard to draw any positives from it. O'Ward was unstoppable at Nashville. From pole position, O'Ward led 116 of the first 126 laps. It felt like no one had an answer for him. A right front tire failure was the only thing that could stop him, and it did. O'Ward lost the right front in turn two and it sent him into the barrier. A chance at victory was gone and his season ended with a 24th-place result when he was the best driver on the day.

Patricio O'Ward's 2025 Statistics
Championship Position: 2nd (515 points)
Wins: 2
Podiums: 6
Top Fives: 10
Top Tens: 12
Laps Led: 258
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 4
Fast Twelves: 9
Average Start: 7.588
Average Finish: 8.411

Christian Lundgaard
Lundgaard was taking a step up in 2025 moving to Arrow McLaren after three seasons at Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. If the Dane could be a top ten championship driver and a race winner at RLLR, he would surely find success at McLaren. Unlike the number of drivers to join the team since 2020, Lundgaard firmly established himself as a threat. For the first part of the season, Lundgaard was the team leader.

What objectively was his best race?
Three times was Lundgaard a runner-up in the 2025 season. The first was at Barber Motorsports Park before he had consecutive runner-up finishes at Laguna Seca and Portland.

What subjectively was his best race?
Barber Motorsports Park felt like the race where Lundgaard was firmly set as a competitive driver at McLaren. Through the first four races, he was better than O'Ward. At Barber, Lundgaard drove from seventh to second with some impressive passes on his teammate as well as Will Power and Scott McLaughlin. He still finished over 16 seconds behind Palou, but Lundgaard did his darn best to be best of the rest.

What objectively was his worst race?
Three laps before O'Ward's tire failure at Nashville, Lundgaard pulled into the pit lane with a mechanical issue and retired from the race. In a blink, McLaren had two cars done for the season in 24th and 25th respectively for the finale.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Nashville was a tough way to end the season. The Grand Prix of Indianapolis is another race to earmark. Lundgaard has run well on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course in his career. In 2025, he had a good starting position in seventh, but an improper blend out of the pit lane led to a penalty that shuffled him back to 16th. Considering he had three consecutive podium finishes entering that race, this was a tough way for such a positive run of form to end.

Christian Lundgaard's 2025 Statistics
Championship Position: 5th (431 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 6
Top Fives: 6
Top Tens: 11
Laps Led: 54
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 6
Fast Twelves: 10
Average Start: 10
Average Finish: 9.588

Nolan Siegel
In his first full season with Arrow McLaren, Siegel was hoping whatever he picked up from running most of the races in 2024 would lead him to better results, especially at tracks he would be visiting for the second time. We still saw growing pains for Siegel, and those were amplified as his two teammates were regularly at the front.

What objectively was his best race?
Siegel was eighth at Road America despite making five pit stops and starting 13th on the grid.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is Road America. His only other top ten finish was ninth at Barber Motorsports Park.

What objectively was his worst race?
Siegel was hit at the start of the St. Petersburg race with contact from Will Power spinning him into the barrier. Without completing a lap, Siegel was classified in 25th for the first race of the season.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Siegel was the best rookie on track at the start of the final lap of the Indianapolis 500. He was 12th on the road, and then he spun in turn two. Considering what happened to the two Andretti cars that finished in the top ten, Siegel could have finished tenth on his Indianapolis 500 debut had he just made it another two-thirds of a lap. He still was placed in 13th after the post-race penalties were applied, but he could have had this clear bright spot for his season had he been able to complete one more lap.

It should also be noted that Siegel missed the second Iowa race after having an accident in race one and not being cleared to drive the next day. Missing a race is tough regardless of how the season is going.

Nolan Siegel's 2025 Statistics
Championship Position: 22nd (213 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 2
Laps Led: 11
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 4
Average Start: 13.705
Average Finish: 17.25

An Early Look Ahead
McLaren has a 1-2 combination it has never had in IndyCar. One driver won races while the other was frequently in the picture and will likely win in 2026. The team went 2-4 in the championship with the only drivers ahead and between from Chip Ganassi Racing. McLaren has never been closer to the IndyCar championship since it returned to the series. 

Things could go McLaren's way. Palou isn't going to win eight races a season every season. Everything comes to an end. Only one driver has won four consecutive championships in IndyCar history. Life is a number's game. The odds are against Palou. Why couldn't McLaren be the benefactor of those odds? It has positioned itself to be next in line, and it has two drivers there to slide into the top spot. 

For the slow start to the season, O'Ward did assert himself as the top McLaren driver, but Lundgaard will likely improve next season. Lundgaard has likely worked through some of the rough patches and the #7 McLaren team likely have a better understanding of how things work. If Lundgaard gets off to a hot start again like he did in 2025, I don't know if it is a certainty O'Ward will get back ahead. 

Ovals are the one thing working in O'Ward's favor. Lundgaard did better this year but he has some work to do to be a contender. He was at least getting top ten finishes, but to win a championship it would be helpful to sneak onto the podium in a few oval races. Perhaps Lundgaard can get to that level in 2026. 

The expectation should be more next season. More from O'Ward and more from Lundgaard. Both drivers should be winning races. If both drivers can win two or three times, as long as they aren't taking each other out, they could both challenge for the title. 

Then there is Siegel. Considering the short leash McLaren has given other drivers, 2026 will be make-or-break. Alexander Rossi, Felix Rosenqvist and Oliver Askew were all cast aside earlier and with far better results to their name than Siegel has achieved in his season-plus time with the organization. He might bring some money but not enough that isn't replaceable to the organization. He only turns 21 years old in November, but McLaren isn't going to subscribe to a long experiment. 

If McLaren is running three cars, it is going to want all three to be at the front. We know Team Penske can have three cars battling at the front, and Andretti Global has the pieces on paper to do the same. McLaren cannot afford to have a third car trudging along at the back, and there are plenty of capable drivers on the sidelines. 

There are plenty of positives to draw from 2025. Looking at all the pieces, McLaren has what it takes for something greater next season.


Wednesday, October 22, 2025

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Andretti Global's 2025 Season

We are entering the final stretch of IndyCar Wrap-Ups, and we have essentially made it to the podium positions. Andretti Global started the season in flying colors. For the longest time, it was the only team that could defeat Álex Palou and had a slim shot at the championship. However, Andretti could not maintain its pace. The second half of 2025 was disappointing and though it won the second-most races of the season, it was not a glorious year.

Kyle Kirkwood
No driver was closer to Álex Palou than Kyle Kirkwood. No other driver had defeated the Catalan driver but Kirkwood until July, and even that was after a Palou error. It felt like the battle would be between Palou and Kirkwood, with all pressure being on Kirkwood to keep up. He couldn't, and he actually lost ground to other competitors. It was a career year for the Floridian, but for all the positives to draw, this one ended up being more disappointing than you would think possible.

What objectively was his best race?
Kirkwood won three times in 2025, the second-most in the IndyCar season. The first came at Long Beach when Kirkwood led most of the way, but he had a fierce Álex Palou in his mirrors, keeping Kirkwood honest through the checkered flag. Kirkwood was the best driver at Detroit, but he still needed to make some passes to get back to the front after a caution came out during the start of a pit cycle. Kirkwood was able to make the moves and take the victory. The following week saw Kirkwood drive intelligently at Gateway, and though he did not lead a large number of laps, he paced himself to take the lead during the final pit cycle and score his first career oval victory.

What subjectively was his best race?
Detroit was Kirkwood's strongest day, but winning Gateway and doing it by stopping early in a pit cycle to jump ahead of the likes of Scott Dixon and Patricio O'Ward was a significant moment for Kirkwood. The American has had some good days on ovals, but he had not pulled through for a victory. At Gateway, he ran exclusively at the front and pulled off a strategy that put him on top.

What objectively was his worst race?
Disqualification at the Indianapolis 500 for illegally modified covers to the hybrid system meant Kirkwood was dropped from sixth to 32nd.

What subjectively was his worst race?
The Iowa weekend was particularly rough for Kirkwood. The pace was never quite there and an accident brought an early end to his first race. In the second race, Kirkwood went off-strategy and it put him in the lead for a moment. The race was never going to end in victory, but it could have netted him a top ten finish when he had spent most of the race in the back-half of the field. However, the caution for Kirkwood's teammate Colton Herta's accident trapped him a lap down and he finished 18th.

Kyle Kirkwood's 2025 Statistics
Championship Position: 4th (433 points)
Wins: 3
Podiums: 3
Top Fives: 5
Top Tens: 10
Laps Led: 114
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 4
Fast Twelves: 7
Average Start: 11.9411
Average Finish: 10.764

Colton Herta
After ending 2024 finishing second in the championship and with a victory to close out the season, it felt like 2025 was lining up to be Herta's year. That didn't happen. Sadly, Herta slipped back into the above-average rut he populated in 2022 and 2023. We would see the good, but we rarely saw great, someone who was doing something spectacular. Herta never came close to being a force in 2025, but that hasn't stopped him from getting a promotion.

What objectively was his best race?
Twice was Herta third this season. The first time was at Detroit where he won pole position but Kirkwood had the better race car. Herta was in Kirkwood's footsteps the entire race. If Santino Ferrucci had not stopped on the right side of the late caution, this would have been a 1-2 finish. Herta's other third-place result was at Laguna Seca. No one was touching Álex Palou at Laguna Seca, and Herta was in the battle for second with Christian Lundgaard.

What subjectively was his best race?
Herta's best chance at victory was Detroit. If Kyle Kirkwood was not in that race, it would have been Herta controlling the race from the front and likely winning in dominant fashion.

What objectively was his worst race?
Herta was 25th at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis after he damaged his front wing on the second lap of the race. A slow pit stop followed. Soon, Herta was off the lead lap and that is where he spent most of the race.

What subjectively was his worst race?
I know I just said Detroit was Herta's best chance at victory. Scratch that. Herta's best chance was the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg where Herta led the drivers who got off the alternate tire on lap two under the first caution of the season. It felt like everything lined up for Herta to cycle to the lead and potentially start the season with a victory. However, a botched pit stop cost him dearly and instead of winning the race, he opened the season 16th, which kind of set the tone of the season.

Colton Herta's 2025 Statistics
Championship Position: 7th (372 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 5
Top Tens: 8
Laps Led: 21
Poles: 2
Fast Sixes: 8
Fast Twelves: 8
Average Start: 10.4705
Average Finish: 10.882

Marcus Ericsson
There were growing pains in 2024 with Ericsson joining the Andretti Global organization, but the hope was the Swede would take a leap forward as he did in his second season with Chip Ganassi Racing. Things started on the right note with a sixth at St. Petersburg, but Ericsson found himself stuck in the back-half of the field. Too often, he was an afterthought, well off his teammates and well off where we know his ability can take him.

What objectively was his best race?
The only top five finish of the season for Ericsson was fifth at Toronto. An early pit stop paid off for Ericsson as it kept him at the front and he was able to hold his ground.

What subjectively was his best race?
On the road, Ericsson was second in the Indianapolis 500, and he was leading before Álex Palou made his daring move to take the point. Ericsson had good pace, but at one point he was shuffled out of the top twenty on the main strategy. An audible allowed Ericsson to run a more aggressive strategy and it put him in the lead after the final pit cycle.

However, while Ericsson led, he could not put separation between himself and Palou, and Palou took advantage when the moment presented itself with 14 laps to go to take the lead. Ericsson remained close but he could not get back ahead.  

What objectively was his worst race?
As we know, Ericsson also was disqualified for the illegal hybrid cover, and instead of finishing second, Ericsson was classified in 31st in the final results for the Indianapolis 500.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is hard to pinpoint one race, but it is the case of Ericsson not taking a step forward in year two with Andretti Global. He was 15th in the championship in 2024 and ended up 20th in 2025. He had four top five finishes in 2024 and ended 2025 with one. He had two top ten finishes the entire season. It wasn't one bad race but a season that was somehow more woeful than the one prior that has you lost for words.

Marcus Ericsson's 2025 Statistics
Championship Position: 20th (218 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 2
Laps Led: 20
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 7
Average Start: 12.8235
Average Finish: 15.588

An Early Look Ahead
For a team that won three races and had two drivers finish in the top ten of the championship, Andretti Global is undergoing one of its biggest shakeups yet. With Colton Herta becoming a development driver for the Cadillac F1 team and about to run Formula Two as a way to acclimate to the global scene, Andretti Global hired Will Power as Herta's replacement. 

It should be an improvement in talent, and Andretti Global should be in for one of its best seasons since its most recent championship in 2012. Though talent has not been what has kept Andretti Global from coming out on top. This is an organization that goes into a slump across the board, and we saw that in the second half of 2025.

Power will bring a fire this organization has never seen with a driver. Considering Andretti's street course prowess in recent seasons, Power could come out of the box hot with two of the first three races and three of the first five being street events. Power should force everyone at Andretti to raise its game, but he will turn 45 years old on the day of the 2026 season opener. While he did win a championship four years ago, in the last three seasons, he has had a winless season and it took him 15 races to win in 2025. He has also won only three pole positions over the last 51 races. In the 51 races prior to that, Power had 11 pole positions. 

The hope will be Power still has some of that magic in him, and motivated after a semi-unpleasant departure from Team Penske, he will look to prove his previous employer wrong. 

Every year it feels like the most of the pieces are there for Andretti Global, but there are always a few missing. Last year, it was the second half of the season. Kirkwood might not have been able to keep pace with Palou, but through the first eight races he was set to at least be second in the championship, and then the speed vanished. Bringing in Will Power will not complete the puzzle for the entire organization, but bringing Ron Ruzewski as team principal should be a step to lift all three entries and have the team be more competitive over all 17 races.

Kirkwood should be fine even if he finishes behind Power in the championship. Ericsson must do something greater than we have seen in the last two years, and even that it might not be enough. With Dennis Hauger farmed out to Dale Coyne Racing for the 2026 season, the writing could be on the wall and Ericsson could be in a lame-duck season for the Andretti group no matter what, but he cannot afford to finish as far behind his teammates as he has the last two years.

Considering the talent of all three drivers and the resources poured into the program, the expectation should be for all three Andretti drivers to finish in the top ten of the championship, a number the team has not hit since 2018. The team should be competitive and make some waves, but don't expect things to remain the same going into 2027.



Monday, October 20, 2025

Musings From the Weekend: Forbidden Fruit

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

A few more championships were handed out. Rain played a role in Indianapolis' second endurance. Joe Gibbs increased his championship odds. A championship went to the wire in Spain though it felt rather secured at the start of the weekend. The championship lead changed in the World Rally Championship as that has two rounds remaining. Rinus VeeKay secured a seat. McLaren did not have a clean weekend as Formula One is back in the Americas, and it raced in Austin, though the racing isn't the only news to come from the weekend. The biggest news involved the future of how Formula One is presented in the United States.

Forbidden Fruit
In less than a decade, Formula One has found a gold mine in the United States. 

What once was niche that had its moment on the big stage has become in the know, from a successful docuseries on Netflix to frequent inclusions in television commercials to a blockbuster film, Formula One has never been bigger. With the increase in popularity comes an increase in prices. Formula One will be looking to make as much money as it can, and it earned itself with a nice payday. 

As Formula One experiences the highest viewership it has ever had in the United States, it cashed in when it announced a new broadcast agreement with Apple TV over the next five years with the annual value estimated between $120-150 million. It wasn't look ago, Formula One got about $4 million a year out of States. Formula One is at highest, but is it the apex and the start of a descent?

We always knew there would be a breaking point for Formula One. ESPN took over broadcast rights for practically $0 when Formula One and NBC could not come to terms with streaming rights as F1TV was being introduced. After a first race that saw commercial breaks whimsically thrown into a broadcast with no concern for what was happening during the race, a change was made and races were then broadcasted commercial-free. From there, it was all uphill. 

Combined with Drive to Survive, Formula One was presented in a way no other sports league was in the United States, and it caught an audience that was otherwise unaware of its existence. Soon it led to a boom no other motorsports series was seeing in this country. It is no longer odd to see a Formula One driver in an untraditional space in the United States. Companies openly celebrate their partnerships with Formula One teams. With such attention comes a price. 

Formula One makes its money through broadcast deals, and while ESPN ultimately did open its wallet after years of essentially paid nothing, there was going to be a breaking point. Commercial-free coverage is a loss. A television network doesn't make money on viewership. It makes money on turning viewership into sold advertisements. You get nothing for having two million watching a race. You get paid for the five commercial breaks an hour at three minutes a pop with 30 individual spots that fill the program that two million people are watching. When a race is commercial-free, a network isn't making money. 

ESPN could sell a presenting sponsor for a broadcast, but Mother's car polish or Mercedes-Benz isn't getting the most bang for the buck. The network is getting something back, but it is not breaking even. ESPN can accept a loss here and there, but it cannot constantly being accept a loss. With the cost increasing to north of $100 million a year, ESPN was priced out, and it left few suitors at the table. 

Enter Apple, a company that successfully partnered for the F1 movie and who makes money from something other than television production. Television is Apple's hobby. It makes the big bucks on electronic devices from iPhones to iPads to MacBooks, Apple is more interested in being in your pocket and on our desk than if you subscribe to Apple TV, but it hopes you pay for that as well. 

While there are scripted television shows and movies Apple has produced, there is another revenue source in live sports it has been venturing into. Its first big jump was with Major League Soccer as it became the exclusive global broadcaster of all matches. It has also broadcasted a pair of Major League Baseball games on Friday nights for the last four seasons. 

Neither experiment has quite proven to be a grand success.

For Major League Soccer, it has a dedicated home, which has given it more attention than previous partners, but viewership is significantly down as the league has moved away from network and cable television partners and only one game a week is simulcasted on either Fox or FS1. Teams have also lost local television deals meaning fans who live within a team's market cannot turn on a local channel and watch a game on television. The only choice is Apple, which requires a subscription and then it requires an additional sponsors for the MLS League Pass to see every MLS match. 

For Major League Baseball, there are reports Apple will end the contract early and not continue broadcasting games on Friday night.

Either way, whether it is MLS or MLB, Apple has never publicly celebrated viewership. It has never bragged about the number of viewers for a game. If the news was good, they would not hide it. That is what Formula One is viewing as it will start a five-year agreement in 2026. 

Everything will be on Apple. It does not sound like Apple will have all the races and then a handful of races will be on national television somewhere. The three races in the United States, the other three races in the Americas, the night races in the Middle East that are run at a favorable hour and the Monaco Grand Prix will all only be available on Apple TV. This isn't going to be like the old deals where Speed Channel had most of the races but for some reason CBS would get four races and they were likely all shown tape-delayed and there was no way to see them live. 

There is not going to be a way to watch Formula One on terrestrial television next year. In one way, it is a massive step back to something we haven't seen in decades, absent from a space where it once at place. However, it will still be available, it will just require more work to access it.

This move is strictly about making money. Any move to a streaming-only option is not about increasing viewership and leading to more exposure. Streaming is a component of broadcasting, not the end-all be-all. 

Formula One has proven many wrong in the United States. It has stuck and the country hosts three races. The Las Vegas strip is closed down to host a race. A decade ago, that was a fever dream. However, it is likely Formula One will suffer moving to Apple. While Drive to Survive has survived coming from a streaming platform, a docuseries is different from the actual races. The races have been included through whatever cable or streaming bundle a person already has. This will force people to either subscribe to a new platform or not subscribe at all. 

Some will do so because they want to watch Formula One and it means that much to them, but we also know when an additional price is added on, people assess whether or not it is necessary. There will be a fair number who decide not to subscribe to Apple TV. They may still follow Drive to Survive. They may watch the highlights on YouTube or social media, but if they aren't watching the race broadcasts, Formula One will lose out. If they stop watching the races, there is a better chance they stop watching altogether, and all that progress that has been made over the last eight years will disappear quickly.

While this will be the most lucrative television deal Formula One has ever had for the United States, it is a dangerous deal, and a year from now Formula One will learn the truth about its reach in the United States.

Champions From the Weekend
Toprak Razgatlioglu clinched the World Superbike championship with finishes of second and third from Jerez despite retiring from the Super Pole race. This is Razgatlioglu's third World Superbike championship.

The #48 VDS Panis Racing Oreca-Gibson of Oliver Gray, Esteban Masson and Charles Milesi clinched the European Le Mans Series LMP2 championship with a victory in the 4 Hours of Portimão.

The #82 TF Sport Corvette of Rui Andrade, Charlie Eastwood and Hiroshi Koizumi clinched the ELMS LMGT3 championship with a class victory at Portimão.

Kelvin van der Linde won the Intercontinental GT Challenge championship as van der Linde and the #46 Team WRT BMW with co-drivers Charles Weerts and Valentino Rossi won the Indianapolis 8 Hour.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about a few race winners, but did you know...

Max Verstappen won the United States Grand Prix, his fifth victory of the season. Verstappen also won the sprint race. 

Raúl Fernández won MotoGP's Australian Grand Prix, his first career MotoGP victory. Marco Bezzecchi won the sprint race. Senna Agius won in Moto2, his second victory of the season. José Antonio Rueda won in Moto3, his tenth victory of the season.

Chase Briscoe won the NASCAR Cup race from Talladega, his third victory of the season. Austin Hill won the Grand National Series race, his fourth victory of the season. Gio Ruggiero won the Truck race, his first career victory.

Nicolò Bulega swept the World Superbike races from Jerez, leaving him 13 points of Razgatlioglu in the championship. Stefano Manzi and Jaume Masià split the World Supersport races.

The #17 CLX Motorsport Ligier-Toyota of Adrien Closmenil, Theodor Jensen and Paul Lanchère won in the LMP3 class at the 4 Hours of Portimão, the team's fifth victory in six races.

The #100 Stanley Team Kunimitsu Honda of Naoki Yamamoto and Tadasuke Makino won the Super GT race from Autopolis. The #666 Seven x Seven Racing Porsche of Harry King, Tsubasa Kondo and Kiyoto Fujinami won in GT300.

Kalle Rovanperä won the Central European Rally, his third victory of the season.

Coming Up This Weekend
NASCAR has its penultimate round from Martinsville.
Formula One heads down to Mexico City.
MotoGP is off to Malaysia. 
Supercars' Final Series begins with a round at Surfers Paradise.