Thursday, August 7, 2025

Track Walk: Portland 2025

The 15th NTT IndyCar Series season will run at Portland International Raceway for the final road course race of the season, as we are entering the final days of the IndyCar season. Through 14 races there have been only four different winners. IndyCar has had at least seven different winners in 15 consecutive seasons. The last season with fewer was 2009, which had only six different winners. Since returning to the IndyCar schedule in 2018, only once has the Portland winner been a driver scoring his first victory of the season. 

Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday August 10 with green flag scheduled for 3:22 p.m. ET.
Channel: Fox
Announcers: Will Buxton, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee, Georgia Henneberry and Jack Harvey will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
First Practice: 5:30 p.m. ET (75 minutes)
Saturday:
Second Practice: 12:00 p.m. ET (60 minutes)
Qualifying: 2:30 p.m. ET 
Final Practice: 8:30 p.m. ET (25 minutes)
Sunday:
Race: 3:22 p.m. ET (90 laps)

FS2 will have coverage of Friday practice session while FS1 will have coverage of second practice and qualifying on Saturday. FS2 will show the final practice session Saturday night. Fox will have race coverage.

Palou's Pending Coronation
The question does not seem to be if Álex Palou will win the 2025 IndyCar Series championship, it is when, and all Palou needs to clinch the championship is score 41 points over the final three races. He doesn't even need all three races to hit that total. It could be locked up in Portland.

A second-place finish with at least one bonus point this weekend will be enough for Palou to take the title with two races remaining regardless of what Patricio O'Ward does this weekend. 

Palou and O'Ward are the only drivers alive for the championship with three races remaining, and they have combined to win the last four races. Palou sits in 590 points, 121 points clear of O'Ward. For O'Ward to remain alive for the championship beyond Portland he will need to score at least 18 points more Palou this weekend. 

This season, O'Ward has scored more points than Palou in only four of the first 14 races. Two of those occurred during the month of June at Detroit and Gateway respectively. The other two are O'Ward's victories in the first Iowa race and Toronto. 

When it comes to Portland, not many drivers are better at the circuit than Palou. In four starts in the Rose City he has finished first, 12th, first and second. He has led 101 of 440 laps run. He has never started outside the top five at the track. 

O'Ward has also made four starts at Portland, but his results have been more up-and-down. He led 28 laps in the 2021 Portland race, one lap fewer than Palou that day, but O'Ward got stuck in traffic after his opening pit stop and he kept losing ground to the leaders. He was unable to get out of the middle of the field and ended up finish 14th. O'Ward would finish fourth in the next two years at Portland, but last year he qualified 22nd on a day when none of the three Arrow McLaren cars started better than 17th. In the race, all O'Ward could climb up to was 15th.

Palou could become the first driver to clinch a championship with multiple races remaining since Cristiano da Matta clinched the 2002 CART championship with three races remaining. Since 1946, 23 times has the championship be claimed with multiple races to spare. However, the only other time in the last 40 years the championship was sealed with multiple races left was in 1998 when Alex Zanardi won the CART championship with four races to go.

This would be Palou's fourth championship and his third consecutive. He could become the sixth driver to win at least four championships in a career, and he would become only the fourth driver to win three consecutive championships. He would have four championships in six seasons in IndyCar. The only other driver to reach four championships in fewer seasons was Sébastien Bourdais, who won four consecutive championships to close out his first five seasons in American open-wheel racing.

Besides championships, Palou is a victory away from another milestone. The Catalan driver enters this weekend on 19 career victories in his first 95 starts. He is one victory away from becoming the 24th driver to reach 20 career victories. Another victory this season would make Palou just the fourth driver to win at least nine races in a single season. If he wins two of the final three races, he will tie the single season record. If he wins all three, he will set the single season record with 11 victories.

The Battle for Third
In all likelihood, Álex Palou will finish first in the championship and Patricio O'Ward will finish second. The battle will be for third, and there are two key contenders for that spot.

Scott Dixon is currently third on 392 points, 77 points behind O'Ward in second. Kyle Kirkwood is fourth and only 15 points behind Dixon. In recent weeks, the momentum has swung in Dixon's favor in the fight for third. 

After Gateway, Kirkwood was third in the championship on 75 points off Palou in the championship lead after the American won for the third time in the first eight races. Dixon was fifth, 54 points behind Kirkwood.

In the last six races, Dixon has finished in the top ten in all six, and that includes a victory, a second and another two top five finishes. Dixon's only finish worse than 12th this season was 20th in the Indianapolis 500. These results have been coming despite Dixon's qualifying woes. He has started in the top five of only one race this season, and that was fourth in the Indianapolis 500. Only twice has he started in the top ten on a road or street course, sixth at St. Petersburg and ninth at Mid-Ohio. In six races he has started outside the top fifteen. In four of those races, Dixon has finished inside the top ten with two of those being fifth-place results.

For Kirkwood, he has only one top ten finish and three top ten finishes in the last six events, and he has finished outside the top fifteen in three of the last four races. After leading 104 laps in the first eight races of the season, Kirkwood has led only ten laps over the last six races, and his five-race top five finish drought is his longest since a nine-race stretch that spread over the final four races in 2023 and the first five races of 2024. During this slump he has started 18th or worse in all three races he has failed to finish inside the top fifteen. He has not started in the top five since he started third at Road America.

Dixon has lived in a top three championship spot for nearly 20 year. Since 2007, Dixon has finished in the championship top three in 14 seasons with two finishes in fourth and two finishes in sixth. While he is a six-time champion, he has finished third in the championship on six occasions as well. Only three times has he been championship runner-up. 

Whether it be third or fourth, Kirkwood is in line for his best championship finish in his four-year IndyCar career. His championship finish has improved each year after finishing 24th as a rookie in 2022. Two years ago he was 11th, and last year he was seventh. Andretti Global has produced at least one driver in the top five of the championship in five of the last seven seasons. 

At Portland, Dixon has finished on the podium in three of his last six starts with another top five finish. In three Portland starts, Kirkwood has finished 13th, tenth and tenth. Last year, Dixon and Kirkwood made contact on the opening lap, which led to Dixon going off circuit and hitting the barrier, ending his race before he could register a lap completed. 

At Least One of These Drivers Will Go Winless
Time is running out in the IndyCar season and there are a great number of drivers without a victory with only three races remaining, 23 drivers to be specific. At least 20 regular competitors will be without a victory when this season is all said and done. Keep in mind only four drivers have won through the first 14 races this season.

Christian Lundgaard is the top driver in the championship without a victory this season. Lundgaard is fifth in the championship on 357 points, 20 points behind three-time race winner Kyle Kirkwood in fourth. Lundgaard was second at Laguna Seca, his best finish since he was runner-up at Barber Motorsports Park in May. While he had three consecutive podium finishes and was second in the championship after four races, Lundgaard has only two top five finishes in the last ten races. He has finished outside the top ten in five of the last ten races. 

Felix Rosenqvist is sixth in the championship on 315 points, two points ahead of Colton Herta, but Rosenqvist has finished outside the top fifteen in three of the last four races. His 24th-place result at Laguna Seca is his worst finish of the season. Last year, he had five top ten finishes in the first six races but he ended the season with one top ten finish in the final 11 races. Rosenqvist has finished in the top ten in three of the last six races.

Herta is coming off two consecutive top five finishes, the first time he has had consecutive top five finishes this season. Last year, he closed out the season with six top five finishes in the final seven races. Five of his nine career victories have come within the final four races of a season, and he has won three of the last seven season finales. 

Marcus Armstrong is the top driver in the championship with zero career victories, and it has been over two years since our most recent first-time winner. Armstrong has seven top ten finishes in the last eight races. He is tied for the fourth-most top ten finishes this season with Kirkwood and Lundgaard. Four times has a driver had their first career victory come in Portland. Those drivers are Al Unser, Jr. in 1984, Alex Zanardi in 1996, Mark Blundell in 1997 and A.J. Allmendinger in 2006.

Unless a Team Penske driver wins this weekend, we will be guaranteed that at least one of them will go winless in 2025. Will Power is ninth in the championship while Scott McLaughlin is 12th and Josef Newgarden is 16th. 

Power has one top five finish in the last seven races. He has led only four laps in the first 14 races. Power is hoping to avoid his second winless season in the last three years. 

McLaughlin got back into the top ten at Laguna Seca, but he has finished outside the top ten in seven of the last nine races after he opened the season with four top ten results in the first five events. McLaughlin did win at Portland in 2022.

Newgarden is looking to avoid his first winless season since 2014, but his only top five finish on a road or street course this season was third in the St. Petersburg season opener. His best finish on a natural-terrain road course was 11th at Laguna Seca two weeks ago. The good news for Newgarden is he has finished in the top ten in all six of his Portland starts and he has four top five finishes at the circuit.

Cautions
At the start of the IndyCar season, everyone marveled at the lack of cautions, and it became a running joke that there would never be another caution in the series. 

Through the first five races, there had only been two total caution periods for a combined eight caution laps out of the first 430 laps run in the 2025 season. The pendulum has swung completely in the opposite direction. 

Seven of the last nine races have featured at least five cautions, including the last four consecutive races. Only one race in the last nine has featured fewer than three cautions. That would be Mid-Ohio, which had two caution periods. After having only 1.86% of the first 430 laps run under caution, we have had 18.68% of the last 1,440 laps run under caution. We have also had two races finish under caution in that span after going over two years without a race finishing behind the pace car.

In what could be somewhat of a surprise, IndyCar is trending downward on the amount of caution periods compared to last season. Despite this nine-race run, only 14.873% of all laps run in 2025 have been under caution. Last season, 16.9602% of the total laps run were under yellow. That is 414 of 2,441 laps run. In the final three races of last season, a grand total of 126 of the 706 laps run were under caution, or 17.847%.

Over its entire existence on the IndyCar schedule, Portland has averaged 2.1 cautions per race with a median of one. Since it returned to the IndyCar schedule in 2018, three races have featuerd two cautions or fewer. The other three races have featured three cautions or four cautions. 

Four of the last six Portland races have had an opening lap caution, and five of the six races have had the first caution come within the first three laps. Of the four opening lap cautions, last year's was the only one not for an incident in the chicane that makes up the first three turns. It was for Scott Dixon going off after contact in turn eight. The 2022 race is the only one to get through the first three laps cleanly, and that race went 84 laps before Jimmie Johnson and Rinus VeeKay had contact in the chciane. That proved to be the only caution of that race.

Of the 15 cautions at Portland since 2018, seven have been in the chicane, but there have been no cautions for incidents at the chicane in the last two visits to Portland. The next most troublesome spot has been turn 11, which has been the location for three cautions. No other place on the circuit has caused multiple cautions over the last six races. 

On average this season, the first caution has come around lap nine in a race. In six of 14 races has the first caution come on the opening lap and in another three races has the first caution come within the first four laps. In seven consecutive races has there been a caution within the first four laps. Besides the three caution-free races, the only two other races to see at least the first five laps run uninterrupted were the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, which did not see a caution period until lap 70, and Detroit, which ran the first 13 laps before the first incident of the race. 

Road to Indy
Portland marks the season finale for two of the three Road to Indy Series, but for Indy Lights it is the antepenultimate round in a championship that has tightened up over the last few races. 

Dennis Hauger's championship lead is 42 points with three races remaining as Caio Collet has leaped up to second after Collet swept the Laguna Seca doubleheader. Hauger was second in the first race but contact in race two left him with a 16th-place result. Lochie Hughes has dropped to third as he has finished 15th or worse in two of the last three races. Hughes is 89 points behind Hauger. 

Two other drivers are still mathematically alive for the championship. Myles Rowe is 127 points behind Hauger in fourth and Josh Pierson has some air left in the lungs of his championship hopes as Pierson is 152 points back with 162 points left on the table.

There will be a few driver changes in Portland. Michael d'Orlando will return for the final three Indy Lights races to drive the #3 Andretti Cape Motorsports entry, which Ricardo Escotto had driven in the first nine races. D'Orlando ran the seven Indy Lights races last season for Andretti Cape and he had three finishes in the top six with his best result being fourth at St. Petersburg. He won at Portland in U.S. F2000 in 2022 to cap off his championship season, and he won here in USF Pro 2000 in 2023. 

Nicholas Monteiro will drive the #24 HMD Motorsports entry at Portland, and Monteiro will become the fourth different driver to run this car in 2025. Monteiro has spent the last three seasons in USF Pro 2000. His best finish in 52 starts is sixth, which has occurred on six occasions and they have all come this season. 

Indy Lights will race at 1:06 p.m. ET on Sunday August 10 for 35 laps.

The USF Pro 2000 championship was wrapped up in Toronto when Max Garcia finished first and ninth. Garcia has won seven races this season and his ninth at Toronto was his first finish outside the top four this season. 

The battle will be for second as 13 points cover second to fourth, and 25 points is covering second to fifth. 

Ariel Elkin has 315 points, three more than Mac Clark. Alessandro de Tullio is fourth on 301 points and Jacob Douglas is fifth on 290 points. 

Elkin won three of the first nine races but he has gone winless in the last seven races. He does have two podium finishes and five top five finishes in that time. Clark remains winless this season, but he does have ten podium finishes, which is only one fewer than champion-elect Garcia. De Tullio won three of the first four races, but hit a bit of a slump in the middle of the season before he won the second Toronto race. Douglas has three consecutive podium finishes and five podium finishes in the last seven races.

USF Pro 2000 will hold its first race at 1:20 p.m. ET on Saturday August 9 with the final race of the season scheduled for 5:50 p.m. ET on Sunday August 10. Both races will be 30 laps or 50 minutes. 

The U.S. F2000 season will conclude with a triple-header from Portland and with 99 points left on the table, one of four drivers could leave as champion.

Jack Jeffers has 353 points and a 52-point championship lead over Thomas Schrage after Jeffers has won four consecutive races. Jeffers had one victory in the first 11 races, but he has a total of ten podium finishes this season. Schrage won twice and had seven podium finishes in the first nine races, but in the last six races he has finished on the podium twice and outside the top ten on the other four occasions. 

Teddy Musella is 56 points behind Jeffers in third. Musella has finished in the top five in seven consecutive races, which includes his only victory of the season at Road America. G3 Argyros has an outside chance at the championship. Argyros trails Jeffers by 93 points, but Argyros will be eliminated if Jeffers finishes 14th or better in the first race of the weekend. Argryos did win last year at Portland in U.S. F2000.

The first U.S. F2000 race will be Friday August 8 at 8:50 p.m. ET with the second race scheduled for Saturday at 6:35 p.m. ET, and the final race is scheduled for a 6:55 p.m. ET start on Sunday. All three races will be 25 laps or 40 minutes.

Fast Facts
This will be the fifth IndyCar race to take place on August 10 and the first since 2003 when CART and the Indy Racing League each held an event. Paul Tracy won at Mid-Ohio, and Hélio Castroneves won at Gateway. 

Four times has a driver won consecutive Portland races (Mario Andretti 1985-86, Michael Andretti 1990-92, Al Unser, Jr. 1994-95, Gil de Ferran 1999-2000).

Michael Andretti and Al Unser, Jr. are tied for most Portland victories. They each won three times. 

Of the three active Portland winners, Álex Palou and Will Power have each won twice.

Power has won at least three times at six different circuits (Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course, Belle Isle, Pocono, São Paulo, Sonoma, Toronto).

Palou has won at least three times at three different circuits (Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course, Laguna Seca, Road America).

Ten times has the Portland winner won the championship in the same season. Palou has done it in two of his three championship seasons.

The average starting position for a Portland winner is 3.833 with a median of second. 

Five consecutive Portland races have been won from a top five starting position. Four of those five have been from the front row.

Twice has a Portland winner started outside the top ten (Mark Blundell from 11th in 1997, Takuma Sato from 20th in 2018).

Prior to last year's race, five consecutive Portland races had at least one top five finisher who started outside the top ten.

The average number of lead changes in a Portland race is 6.233 with a median of six. 

Nine consecutive Portland races have featured at least seven lead changes.

Every Portland race has featured at least two lead changes.

The only Portland race to feature less than three lead changes was the 2001 race, which had two lead changes.

The average number of caution laps in a Portland race is 7.933 with a median of 5.5.

There have been six caution-free races at Portland, most recently in 2007.

Predictions
At this point the averages say you must pick Álex Palou, and we will select Palou to get his ninth victory of the season this weekend to cap off what will be another clinched championship in the Rose City. Patricio O'Ward's top five finish streak will end. Scott Dixon will make it beyond turn eight on the opening lap. Kyle Kirkwood will have his best finish in over a month. At least two Team Penske drivers will gain at least one spot in the championship. We will run at least 25 laps before the first caution. Alexander Rossi will finish in the top ten. Sleeper: Marcus Ericsson.