Josef Newgarden won the IndyCar championship with his teammate Simon Pagenaud won the season finale from Sonoma. Formula One had its first wet night race and it saw three of the top four taken out in the first corner. Another American took a championship at Sonoma. There was an endurance race in Australia. There was an endurance race in Austin. The World Superbikes champion will be British for the third consecutive season. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.
2017 IndyCar Predictions: Revisited
The season is complete. Now is the time to see what I got wrong and how far off I was and what I got right.
1. Penske Repeats as Champion
Correct! Team Penske got its 15th championship at the hands of Josef Newgarden. I felt at the start of the season that Newgarden could do it despite concerns of him having a similar first year Penske slump like Simon Pagenaud but I thought Penske wasn't going to allow that to happen a second time. Newgarden was destined to be champion this season. Repeating is hard so that cancelled out Pagenaud and Hélio Castroneves is good but doesn't have that ability to grab a championship and run with it. That left Newgarden and Will Power and the one thing on Newgarden's side was he finished seventh and fourth the previous two years in the championship driving for CFH Racing/Ed Carpenter Racing. If he could do that with a small two-car operation, what could he at Team Penske? He already had the skill. He needed that little extra support.
2. Carlos Muñoz Will Have a Better Average Finish Than Conor Daly
Correct! Muñoz finished with an average finish of 13.588 to Daly's average finish of 14.882. It wasn't the greatest season for A.J. Foyt Racing. The team switched to Chevrolet for this season and the results never came. The team never challenged for a victory and the team's only good outing was Gateway where Daly finished fifth and Muñoz finished ninth. The team could be shaking up the driver lineup again and I think that is unfortunate. Muñoz is a quality driver and he did the best he could with the equipment he had. Daly is with his third different team in three years and this was only his second full-time season. Both should return in 2018 but it appears one will be shown the door if not both drivers.
3. Dale Coyne Racing Will Get One Podium That Wasn't Because of Going Off Strategy
Correct! And it happened to be race one of the season. Did Sébastien Bourdais benefit from stopping before a caution at St. Petersburg? Sure but it was during the pit stop cycle and he had to restart second behind Simon Pagenaud and not only did he pass his fellow countryman and the defending IndyCar champion but he left him in the dust and won by over ten seconds.
4. Ryan Hunter-Reay and Tony Kanaan End Winless Droughts
Wrong! Neither driver won in 2017 and Hunter-Reay having victories slip through his fingers due to mechanical failures at Long Beach and Indianapolis are not some type of consolation prize. Kanaan's best finish came in a race where he should have been disqualified.
5. JR Hildebrand Sets Career-Highs for Top Fives and Top Tens
Wrong! Hildebrand set career-highs in neither category but he did set a career-high in podium finishes as he finished third at Phoenix and second at Iowa. Unfortunately, those results were not good enough and Hildebrand finds himself out of a ride again.
6. Graham Rahal Increases His Amount of Top Ten Finishes but not Top Five Finishes
Correct! Last year, all eight of Rahal's top ten finishes were top five finishes. This year, Rahal had six top five finishes and 12 top ten finishes. It was a rough start to the season for Rahal and he might have added top ten finishes at St. Petersburg and Indianapolis had it not been for contact with Charlie Kimball and a flat tire in the respective races. Rahal came on strong in the second half of the season and he became the first driver to win multiple races this season when he swept the Belle Isle doubleheader.
7. James Hinchcliffe Scores His Best Finish in the Championship
Wrong! The Canadian finished 13th in the championship after retiring from the final IndyCar race of the season because of a gearbox issue and being scored in 22nd. The season started really well for Hinchcliffe with a victory at Long Beach and three top ten finishes from the first three races. However, he would only score four top tens in the next 14 races and two third-place finishes, an eighth and a tenth were not going to be enough to get him to finish seventh in the championship. Last year, he finished 13th in the championship and probably didn't deserve it. This year, he kind of was the 13th best driver in IndyCar.
8. Alex Tagliani Does Not Lead a Lap in the Indianapolis 500
Correct! And Tagliani didn't even have a ride for the Indianapolis 500 despite leading at least one lap for six consecutive Indianapolis 500s and could have matched the record for most consecutive Indianapolis 500s having led a lap. It appears Tagliani's time in IndyCar is over.
9. There Will Be More Lead Changes at all Short Oval Races From the Previous Race at the Tracks
Correct! Phoenix was up from two lead changes to four, Iowa was up from 11 lead changes to 12 and Gateway was up from five lead changes to 11. While I got this one correct I think it should be asked are lead changes are misleading? Phoenix had double the lead changes from 2016 but the race wasn't any better. Iowa had one more lead change and it was a fairly good race. Gateway had more than double the lead changes from the 2003 race but it was saved from being a dull race thanks to Josef Newgarden's audacious race-winning move on Simon Pagenaud into turn one. When it comes to lead changes we need two separate columns, one for lead changes that occur during a pit cycle and one for lead changes that occur on the racetrack with second place passing first place. The main thing for 2018 is Phoenix and Gateway need to see improved races in hopes for long-term futures on the IndyCar schedule. We all hope the universal aero kit will be enough but it could be too late to save Phoenix. Two poor races could prove to be one too many.
10. At Least Two Drivers Improve by at Least Five Positions in the Championship
Correct! Takuma Sato went from 17th in 2016 to eighth this year and Max Chilton went from 19th to 11th. Besides those two, Alexander Rossi improved four positions from 11th to seventh and if it wasn't for his engine issues at Sonoma he might have been a third driver to improve by five championship positions from 2016. You could also consider J.R. Hildebrand as a driver who improved more at least five positions as he went from 23rd in 2016 after only running two races to 15th as a full-time driver.
11. A Ridiculous Rumor About a Driver Out of IndyCar at Least Three Years is Published on Either Motorsport.com or Racer.com
Correct! Jeff Simmons was rumored for an Indianapolis 500 one-off this May and he hasn't been in a car since 2008. The ride never materialized. And then there was the recent news that Tristan Gommendy, who only raced during the 2007 Champ Car season, will have a ride to attempt to qualify for the 2018 Indianapolis 500. What a time to be alive.
12. Jenson Button Will be at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway During the Month of May
Wrong! Unless he was incognito on Carb Day, the 2009 World Drivers' Champion was not at Indianapolis Motor Speedway during the month of May. But we had a two-time world drivers' champion not only show up for a day during the month of May but had his own test day that drew over two million viewers on YouTube from around the world and then he ran a full week of practice, qualified fifth, skipped the Monaco Grand Prix and led 27 laps before his engine failed ironically with 21 laps to go. What I am saying is Fernando Alonso was not a bad plan B.
Eight for 12. Not going to complain.
Champions From the Weekend
You know about Josef Newgarden but did you know...
Patrick Long won the Pirelli World Challenge Overall GT Championship and the PWC GT Sprint Championship with finishes of third and second at Sonoma.
The #17 Team WRT Audi of Robin Frijns and Stuart Leonard won the Blancpain Sprint Series championship after winning the championship race from Nürburgring. The #84 Mercedes-AMG Team HTP Motorsports Mercedes of Maximilian Bukh and Franck Perera won the qualifying race.
Winners From the Weekend
You know about Simon Pagenaud and what happened at the Nürburgring but did you know...
Lewis Hamilton won the Singapore Grand Prix.
The #2 Porsche of Timo Bernhard, Brendon Hartley and Earl Bamber won the 6 Hours of Circuit of the Americas, their fourth consecutive victory. The #36 Signatech Alpine of Nicolas Lapierre, Gustavo Menezes and André Negrão won in LMP2. The #51 AF Corse Ferrari of James Calado and Alessandro Pier Guidi won in GTE-Pro. The #95 Aston Martin of Paul Dalla Lana, Pedro Lamy and Mathias Lauda won in GTE-Am.
Michael Cooper swept the Pirelli World Challenge GT races from Sonoma. Ian James and Lawson Aschenbach split the GTS races.
Martin Truex, Jr. won the NASCAR Cup race from Chicagoland. Justin Allgaier won the Grand National Series race. Johnny Sauter won the Truck race.
The #6 Prodive Racing Australia Ford of Cameron Waters and Richie Stanaway won the Sandown 500, each drivers first career victory.
Jonathan Rea swept the World Superbike races from Portimão. Kenan Sofuoglu won the World Supersport race, his fifth victory of the season.
Coming Up This Weekend
MotoGP has its final European round of the season at Aragón.
NASCAR has one final autumn trip to New Hampshire.
DTM has its penultimate round of the season at Red Bull Ring.
European Le Mans Series has its penultimate round of the season at Spa-Francorchamps.
IMSA has its penultimate round of the season at Laguna Seca.
Super Formula has its penultimate round of the season at Sportsland SUGO.
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