Friday, November 17, 2017

Friday Five: Five Finales and a Hat Trick of Street Races

We are less than a week away from Thanksgiving but the motorsports feast is this weekend with five season finales, six championships to be decided and a slew of races from a street course in Asian providing plenty to snack on over three days.

Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series
The 36th and final race of he NASCAR Cup season takes place at Homestead-Miami Speedway and four drivers from four teams and two manufactures have a shot at the championship.

Martin Truex, Jr., has been the top driver all season. The New Jerseyan has won seven races this season, including six on 1.5-mile ovals. Truex has an average finish of 2.7 on 1.5-mile ovals this season with his worst finish being eighth. He has finished in the top five in eight of nine Chase races with the exception being 23rd at Talladega. His best finish at Homestead was second in 2006. While he has three top fives and seven top ten finishes in 12 Homestead starts, he has failed to finish in the top ten the last three years in the finale.

Kyle Busch won five races this season including three during the Chase. However, Busch's three victories are his only top five finishes during the Chase and he has not had a top five finish on a 1.5-mile oval since finishing fifth at Kentucky in July. Busch won the 2015 championship with a victory at Homestead. He has finished in the top ten in four of the last five Homestead races.

Kevin Harvick won the 2014 championship with a victory at Homestead and he won the most recent 1.5-mile race at Texas two weeks ago. Harvick has nine consecutive top ten finishes at Homestead and he has 14 top ten finishes in 16 Homestead starts. The California has never retired from a Cup race at Homestead and he has completed 4,277 of 4,278 possible laps.

Brad Keselowski suffered an accident in last year's Homestead race and it was his first retirement at the track after three consecutive top ten finishes including two third-place finishes. Keselowski clinched the 2012 championship with a 15th place finish after Jimmie Johnson retired from the race. He has the best average starting position at the track of the four championship contending driver at 11.6.

Since the introduction of this Chase format in 2014, each champion has won the Homestead race all three seasons and at least one championship contender has finished outside the top ten. Ford leads all manufactures with seven victories at Homestead but the manufacture has not won at the track since 2010 and all seven of Ford's victories have been by Roush-Fenway Racing. Both times Stewart-Haas Racing has won at Homestead the team has won the championship with Harvick in 2014 and Tony Stewart in 2011. Team Penske has never won at Homestead in Cup while Joe Gibbs Racing has six Homestead victories.

Five of the last six Cup champions have ended the season with five victories.

The season finale for the NASCAR Cup season will take place at 2:46 p.m. ET on Sunday November 19th.

NASCAR Xfinity Series
It is an all-Chevrolet affair for the championship in NASCAR's second division as three JR Motorsports drivers and one Richard Childress Racing driver will fight for the title.

William Byron won at Phoenix last week, his fourth of the season. Byron leads all championship-eligible drivers in victories this season. Byron won last year's Truck race at Homestead and he could become the second teenage to win the NASCAR Grand National Series championship. Chase Elliott is the youngest champion in series history at 18 years, 11 months and 18 days old. Elliott's championship is the only title for JR Motorsports.

Elliott Sadler dominated this season but the Virginian has not won a race this season and Sadler is coming off an 18th place finish at Phoenix. He had six consecutive top ten finishes prior to Phoenix. Only two of Sadler's 13 Grand National Series victories have come on a 1.5-mile racetrack, including his most recent victory in the series, which came last autumn at Kentucky. He finished third last year at Homestead and last year was the third time he has finished runner-up in the championship.

Justin Allgaier won twice this season, including at Chicagoland in September. Like Sadler, Allgaier has only won twice on 1.5-mile racetracks but both of those victories have occurred at Chicagoland for Allgaier. He has never finished in the top five at Homestead with last year being his best finish at the track when he finished sixth. He matched his career-best championship finish last year with a third place championship finish.

Daniel Hemric was the final driver to clinch a spot in the championship race with his fifth place finish at Phoenix. The rookie has yet to win this season. His best finish this season was second at Mid-Ohio and his best finish on a 1.5-mile oval was fourth at Chicagoland in September. Hermic is also winless in 49 Truck series starts. He made three Truck starts at Homestead and had finishes of 12th, eighth and fifth. Richard Childress Racing is bidding for its fifth Grand National Series championship. The team's most recent title was with Austin Dillon in 2013.

The NASCAR Grand National Series finale will be at 3:45 p.m. ET on Saturday November 18th.

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series
One driver is looking to become the second driver to win consecutive NASCAR Truck championship. Another is looking to become the third driver to win at least three Truck series championships and two drivers are going for their first title, including one rookie.

Johnny Sauter has won the last two races and the Wisconsinite is looking to successful defend his Truck championship. Sauter won last year's championship after a third place finish at Homestead and he entered that race off the back of two victories and a second place finish. Sauter has already matched the amount of top five finishes he had last year with 12.

Matt Crafton is looking for his third Truck championship in the last five seasons. He won back-to-back titles in 2013 and 2014. Crafton's only victory this season was at Eldora and his only top five finish on a mile-and-a-half racetrack was second at Atlanta in March. He won at Homestead in 2015 from pole position.

Christopher Bell has won the most races this season as the Oklahoman has five victories. Three of Bell's victories were on 1.5-mile racetracks. His most recent victory was the first race of the Chase at Loudon but Bell enters Homestead with seven consecutive top ten finishes. Bell finished eighth in last year's Homestead race.

Austin Cindric was the final driver to qualify for the final race and the rookie for Brad Keselowski Racing did it off the back of six consecutive top ten finishes, including a second place finish at Texas and a fourth place finish at Las Vegas. This will be Cindric's first start at Homestead. Cindric could become the first Ford driver to win the Truck championship since Greg Biffle in 2000.

The final race of the Truck season will be Friday November 17th at 8:49 p.m. ET.

6 Hours of Bahrain
The LMP1 championship has been decided in the FIA World Endurance Championship but the other three classes have yet to be decided.

Bruno Senna and Julien Canal took the FIA Endurance Trophy for LMP2 Drivers championship lead with their victory at Shanghai with Nicolas Prost. They sit on 161 points and the #31 Vaillante Rebellion Oreca drivers lead the drivers of the #38 Jackie Chan DC Racing Oreca, Thomas Laurent, Oliver Jarvis and Ho-Pin Tung by four points entering the season finale. Both teams have won three races this season but the #31 Oreca has three runner-up finishes while the #38 Oreca has finished third twice and finished off the podium three times.

Gustavo Menezes has an outside shot of successfully defending the FIA Endurance Trophy for LMP2 Drivers. The American trails by 23 points and would have to win the race and have the #31 Oreca retire from the race and the #38 Oreca finish eighth or worse in class. Menezes shares the #36 Signatech Alpine with Nicolas Lapierre and André Negrão. This team won at Austin in September. 

The GT World Endurance Drivers' Championship will come down to one of four possibilities. The #51 AF Corse of James Calado and Alessandro Pier Guidi lead with 135 points but they are only two points ahead of the #91 Porsche of Richard Lietz and Frédéric Makowiecki. The #51 Ferrari has won three times and finished on the podium in six of eight races while the #91 Porsche has not won this season but has six podium finishes and the team's worst finish is sixth. Andy Priaulx and Harry Tincknell kept their title hopes alive with a victory at Shanghai. The #67 Ford GT drivers are 8.5 points back. Davide Rigon is the final driver with a shot at the title. The #71 AF Corse Ferrari driver trails his teammates by 22.5 points. Sam Bird joins Rigon in the #71 Ferrari. They won at Spa-Francorchamps in May.

The FIA Endurance Trophy for GTE-Am drivers also has three teams battling for the title. The #98 Aston Martin of Paul Dalla Lana, Pedro Lamy and Mathias Lauda enter with that elusive championship within the teams' grasp. The trio has scored 166 points and took the championship lead with their third victory of the season last time out at Shanghai. The #77 Dempsey-Proton Racing Porsche of Marvin Dienst, Christian Ried and Matteo Cairoli dropped to second in the championship, ten points back after finishing third at Shanghai. The #77 Porsche's worst finish this season was fourth at Austin. Clearwater Racing has an outside shot at the title as the #61 Ferrari of Matt Griffin, Weng Sun Mok and Keita Sawa trails by 19 points. The #61 Ferrari won the season opener at Silverstone and has five podium finishes this season.

Bahrain marks the final round for Porsche LMP1 program. Brendon Hartley, Timo Bernhard and Earl Bamber clinched the World Endurance Drivers' Championship at Shanghai and the #2 Porsche has won four races this season, as has the #8 Toyota of Sébasten Buemi, Kazuki Nakajima and Anthony Davidson. The #1 Porsche of Neel Jani, Nick Tandy and André Lotterer has finished on the podium in five consecutive races but has not won this season. The #7 Toyota of Mike Conway, Kamui Kobayashi and José María López has three podium finishes this season.

The 6 Hours of Bahrain will start at 8:00 a.m. ET on Saturday November 18th. 

Rally Australia
The World Rally Championship is the fifth season finale this weekend.

Sébastien Ogier locked up his fifth consecutive title with a third place finish in Wales Rally GB but the Frenchman has not won since Rally de Portugal in May. This is the fewest rally victories for Ogier since he won twice in 2010. The Frenchman entered Rally Australia with 40 rally victories and 500 stage victories. 

Andreas Mikkelsen won last year's Rally Australia and he will be driving for Hyundai for the third consecutive round after contesting three races for Škoda in WRC-2 and three races for Citroën earlier this season. Mikkelsen's teammate Thierry Neuville sits second in the championship and he is 14 points ahead of M-Sport World Rally Team Ford driver Ott Tänak. Toyota driver Jari-Matti Latvala sits on 136 points in fourth and Wales Rally GB winner Elfyn Evans rounds out the top five on 118 points. Citroën drivers Kris Meeke, Craig Breen and Stéphane Lefebvre look to give the French manufacture its third victory of the season. 

Ford could match Volkswagen for most Rally Australia victories at four. Ogier could tie Juha Kankkunen for most Rally Australia victories by a driver at four. 

Macau Grand Prix
The autonomous territory of Macau hosts three major motorsports events this weekend and the main event is the 64th running of the Macau Grand Prix. Twenty-two cars are entered for the famed Formula Three race.

Carlin has entered six cars including FIA European Formula 3 Champion and McLaren development driver Lando Norris. Norris won nine of 30 races and finished on the podium in 20 races. Norris is attempting to become the ninth different British driver to win the Macau Grand Prix since the race became a Formula Three event in 1983. Carlin is going for its second consecutive victory in the event and third overall. Carlin will also field cars for Jehan Daruvala and Ferdinand Habsburg, both race winners in Formula Three, Eurocup Formula Renault 2.0 champion Sacha Fenestraz and Canadian Delvin DeFrancesco, who finished third in the Euroformula Open Championship. 

Joel Eriksson finished second to Norris in the Formula Three championship and he will be one of five Motopark with VEB entries. Prema Powerteam, in partnership with Theodore Racing, has entered four cars including two for Maximilian Günther and Callum Ilott, who finished third and fourth in Formula Three. Mick Schumacher is one of Prema's entries. His father Michael won the 1990 Macau Grand Prix and his uncle Ralf won the 1995 Macau Grand Prix and that is the most recent time a German won the Macau Grand Prix.

Pedro Piquet is another notable second-generation driver on the Macau Grand Prix entry list. He will drive for Van Amersfoot Racing with Estonian Ralf Aron.

Team TOM's has won the Macau Grand Prix five times most recently in 2008 and the team has entered two cars for Sho Tsuboi and Ritomo Miyata. Tsuboi finished second in the All-Japan Formula Three championship and he finished third in the Super GT GT300 championship this year. Álex Palou finished behind Tsuboi in the All-Japan Formula Three championship and he will be at Macau with ThreeBond Racing with Dorago Corse. Palou made his Formula Two debut at Jerez and had a pair of eighth place finishes.

The qualifying race will be at 9:20 p.m. ET on Friday November 17th. The 64th Macau Grand Prix is scheduled for 2:30 a.m. ET on Sunday November 19th.

FIA GT World Cup
For the third consecutive year, Macau hosts the FIA GT World Cup. Twenty GT3 cars will be on the grid for this year's edition with seven manufactures represented.

The first two winners of the FIA GT World Cup are back with Maro Engel in the #999 Mercedes-AMG for Team GruppeM Racing and Laurens Vanthoor in the #911 Craft-Bamboo Racing Porsche. Each driver will have a teammate with Raffaele Marciello in the #888 Mercedes-AMG and Darryl O'Young in the #991 Porsche. 

Mercedes-AMG Team Driver Academy has entered two cars for Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters-experienced drivers with Edoardo Mortara in the #48 Mercedes-AMG and Daniel Juncandella in the #50 Mercedes-AMG. Mortara won the Macau Grand Prix in 2009 and 2010 and Juncandella won the 2011 Macau Grand Prix. HubAuto Racing has entered two Porsches with Romain Dumas in the #7 Porsche and Super GT regular Hiroki Yoshimoto in the #77 Porsche. 

Audi won last year's event and the German manufacture will have five cars attempting to defend the title. Audi Sport Team WRT will have Blancpain Sprint Series co-champion Robin Frijns in the #1 Audi and DTM regular Nico Müller in the #2 Audi. Defending Formula E champion and 2005 Macau Grand Prix winner Lucas di Grassi will be in the #11 Audi for HCB-Rutronik-Racing with his teammate being one of two silver-rated drivers on the grid, Fabian Plentz in the #12 Audi. The other silver-rated there is Markus Pommer and the ADAC GT Masters driver will be in the #27 Aust Motorsport Audi. 

BMW has four cars entered. Augusto Farfus, who won two races at Macau in WTCC competition, will be in the #18 BMW Team Schnitzer BMW with fellow BMW DTM drivers Marco Wittmann and Tom Blomqvist also on the entry list. Wittmann will be in the #91 BMW for FIST Team AAI and Blomqvist will be in the #99 Rowe Racing BMW. Supercars driver Chaz Mostert will be Wittmann's teammate in the #90 BMW.

There are three manufactures with one entry. Defending Blancpain GT Series champion Mirko Bortolotti will be in the #5 FFF Racing Team by ACM Lamborghini. Two-time Macau Grand Prix winner Felix Rosenqvist will be in the #63 Ferrari for IMSA GT Daytona champions Scuderia Corsa. Renger van der Zande will drive the factory-backed #84 Honda NSX.

The FIA GT World Cup qualifying race will be at 11:25 p.m. ET on Friday November 17th. The FIA GT World Cup championship race will be at 11:10 p.m. ET on Saturday November 18th.

Guia Race of Macau
While not the season finale, Macau is the penultimate round for the 2017 World Touring Car Championship season. With 120 points left on the table, nine drivers have a shot at the championship. 

Volvo driver Thed Björk leads the championship with 228.5 points but the Swede has not won since the first race on the Nürburgrng Nordschleife in May. Honda driver Norbert Michelisz has won three races this season, more than any other driver but he trails Björk by 16.5 points. Björk's teammate Nicky Catsburg trails his teammate by 29 points and Catsburg's only victory this season was the second race at the Nordschleife.

Tiago Monteiro will miss his third consecutive round due to injuries suffered in a high-speed testing crash at Barcelona in September. The Portuguese Honda driver was leading the championship at the time of the accident with 200 points. 

Tom Chilton sits on 184.5 points, a half point ahead of his Sébastien Loeb Racing Citroën teammate Mehdi Bennani. Esteban Guerrieri substitutes for Monteiro for the second consecutive race and the Argentine has 180 points. Rob Huff has 142 points and the seven-time Macau race winner is looking for his first win this season in a Citroën for Münnich Motorsport. Last year, Huff failed to win one of the two TCR International Series races at Macau and it was only the second time in nine years Huff did not win at Macau. Volvo driver Néstor Girolami is the final driver with a shot at the title. He sits on 110 points.

The first WTCC race will be at 1:10 a.m. ET on Saturday November 18th with race two at 9:40 p.m. ET later that day.

Over or Under?
1. Over or Under: 100.5 laps led by Martin Truex, Jr.? 
2. Over or Under: 2.5 of the final four drivers leading a lap in the Xfinity Series race?
3. Over or Under: 14.5 finishing position for Austin Cindric?
4. Over or Under: 23.5 classified cars after the 6 Hours of Bahrain?
5. Over or Under: 11.5 points scored by Hayden Paddon at Rally Australia?
6. Over or Under: 6.5 cars covered by ten seconds in the Macau Grand Prix?
7. Over or Under: 0.5 flips in the FIA GT World Cup races?
8. Over or Under: 1.5 podium finishes for non-European drivers between the two WTCC races?

Last Week's Over/Unders
1. Over: There were eight retirements in the MotoGP race from Valencia.
2. Under: Brendon Hartley retired and would have been 17th after starting 18th.
3. Over: Mercedes-AMG and BMW were the only two manufactures on the GT300 podium.
4. Under: Matt Kenseth led 63 laps on his way to victory.
5. Over: The 24H COTA winning #911 Herberth Motorsport Porsche completed 608 laps.

Predictions
1. The NASCAR Cup champion will not have exactly five victories this season. 
2. Sam Hornish, Jr., finishes ahead of at least two of the four championship eligible drivers.
3. The winner of the Truck race does not lead the most laps.
4. The #98 Aston Martin holds on and wins the FIA Endurance Trophy for GTE-Am Drivers.
5. Sébastien Ogier gets his third rally victory of the season.
6. Mick Schumacher retires from at least one of the two races.
7. A past Macau Grand Prix winner does not win the FIA GT World Cup.
8. Rob Huff wins one of the two WTCC races.

Last Week's Predictions
1. Marc Márquez and Andrea Dovizioso each finish on the podium at Valencia (Partially Wrong. Márquez finished third and Dovizioso retired)
2. There will not be a red flag in qualifying or the race at Interlagos for rain (Correct! Although there was a red flag for Lewis Hamilton's accident but rain was not the cause)
3. Ryō Hirakawa and Nick Cassidy hold on to win the GT500 championship (Correct! Hirakawa and Cassidy won the title with 84 points).
4. There will be at least three cautions in the final stage at Phoenix (Correct! There were five cautions in the final stage).
5. The overall Hankook 24H COTA winner will not be Hofor-Racing or Herberth Motorsport (Wrong! Herberth Motorsport won).
Last Week: 3.5/5 Overall: 23.5/42