Daniel Abt finally got his first career Formula E victory. Nick Heidfeld has made 224 single-seater starts since his most recent single-seater victory. Mexico City had a hell of a crowd. Makes you think IndyCar made the wrong decision in not getting that race on the schedule this year. The Supercars season opened up and one man is on his way to a perfect season. Supercross had its second Triple Crown event of the season as it has reached the midpoint of the 2018 season. If your name began with the letter "K," you likely won in NASCAR this weekend at Las Vegas. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.
What To Watch For in the 2018 IndyCar Season
At this time of the year there is always a part of me that doesn't care the IndyCar season is starting. The wait has been so long and the offseason has made the daydreams seem better than any possible reality and I don't care. Part of me hates that the season is here. I didn't need it.
But there is a bigger part of me that is excited for IndyCar's return. While we hate the long offseason it sure makes the start of the season feel like a honeymoon. You are ready to go a million miles per hour, punch your hand through glass and do a back flip off the balcony because of the excitement of a new season. The wait has been long but it appears to be worth it. The long, freezing nights have ceased and the season returns with spring, the season of life, about to start. The dull world is about to become colorful and go a whole hell of a lot faster.
The season is long despite not as long as we would like. A lot is going to happen this season and sometimes we do not have time to prepare ourselves for what should be a special moment. These moments happen and catch us off guard and when we stop to give it to think about what it means another race is upon us and it is quickly forgotten.
My hope today is to preview some milestones, events and other potential occurrences for the 2018 Verizon IndyCar Series season and think about what it could mean. We start with one of the greatest teams in motorsports.
Team Penske is Three Victories Away From 200 IndyCar Victories
The team won ten races last year and in doing so ended 2017 with 197 IndyCar victories. It is not a matter of if Team Penske will hit 200; it is a matter of when.
It would not be surprising if it happened at the third race of the season at Long Beach but knowing Team Penske and the script writers it will happen on the final Sunday in May at the Indianapolis 500 and wouldn't it be something if Penske's 17th Indianapolis 500 victory was not only his team's 200th IndyCar victory but Hélio Castroneves' fourth Indianapolis 500 victory? After all, Castroneves was responsible for Penske's 100th IndyCar victory at Belle Isle in 2000 and that was the Brazilian's first career IndyCar victory.
We are bound to see a little magic this year in IndyCar. Is there a better storyline than that?
The amazing thing is Penske could amass 100 IndyCar victories in about 18 years after taking 32 years to get the first 100 victories. The Captain has only gotten stronger with time and no one is challenging him. The next closest team is on 107 victories but we will talk about that in a moment.
Scott Dixon is Nine Top Five Finish Away From Second All-Time
Scott Dixon is great but we might be under estimating his greatest. Not only is he two victories away from moving up to third all-time behind A.J. Foyt and Mario Andretti but he could surpass Foyt for second-most top five finishes if he gets nine top five finishes from 17 races. Dixon sits on 141, tied with Al Unser and Hélio Castroneves, while Foyt is on 149. Mario Andretti has the all-time lead with a comfortable 193 top five finishes.
Not only is Dixon close to surpassing Foyt but he is four podium finishes away from becoming the fourth driver with 100 podium finishes in IndyCar history. Mario Andretti leads again with 144, Foyt has 119 and Michael Andretti sits on 100. Dixon is also third all-time in runner-up finishes on 38 and second all-time is not out of the question. Castroneves is second on 41 runner-up finish and once again Mario Andretti is the all-time leader with him having finished second on 56 occasions.
We have been so focused on the victories that we forgot about everything else. This is a big deal. The top five mark will be difficult to get this season but four podium finishes? Dixon might get that before the Indianapolis 500. The last time Dixon did not get at least four podium finishes in a season was in 2005 when he had one. He is going to hit the century mark and he deserves a lot of recognition for the accomplishment.
Dixon isn't underrated; he is under-appreciated. He is one of the all-time greats but we live in an era where being an all-time great isn't enough. Dixon came into IndyCar at the wrong time, when two series didn't care about promoting drivers but trying to sink the other and both lost out. I am glad Dixon has spent majority of his career in a unified IndyCar. We are now getting to realize the talent we have in our midst. The problem is I am not sure anyone outside the IndyCar bubble really cares.
Chip Ganassi Racing is Five Victories Away From Passing Newman/Haas Racing For Second All-Time
While the Pittsburgh-native has reached the 200-win plateau as a car owner through every form of motorsports, Chip Ganassi is in position to only trail Roger Penske in terms of IndyCar victories when 2018 is over.
Newman/Haas Racing won 107 races while Chip Ganassi Racing sits on 103 victories. Five does not seem like much but Ganassi has not won five IndyCar races in a season since 2013 and he has not had multiple drivers win a race in a season since 2014. The last time Ganassi had multiple drivers win more than once in a season was 2011 when Franchitti won four races and Dixon won twice. Dixon has not won five races in a season since 2009.
For Ganassi to surpass Newman/Haas Racing it will likely take Dixon and Ed Jones both winning multiple races in 2018. Dixon won once in 2017 but I bet he triples that in 2018. Jones is the unknown. He had a great start with Dale Coyne Racing as a rookie but how will he fare in his sophomore season and does he have two victories in him? That is a big ask of the Emirati driver.
This potential milestone will not be as much looking at Ganassi but looking back at Newman/Haas Racing. The team's final victory came at Belle Isle in 2007. The team has been second for quite some time. Unfortunately, the team shut its doors after the 2011 season. When you consider Team Penske enters its 52nd year of competition, Newman/Haas wasn't around long, 1983-2011 to be exact. In less than 30 years, the team won more than 100 races. Ganassi took over Pat Patrick's team in 1990. It is slightly behind the pace of Newman/Haas. Both incredible teams and the good news is it appears Ganassi isn't going anywhere.
The other good news for Ganassi is he does not have a lot of pressure behind him. Michael Andretti is the next closest active car owner and he has 57 victories. A.J. Foyt is behind Andretti on 44 victories.
Will Power is Four Pole Positions Away From Second All-Time
A.J. Foyt could be losing a lot of real estate in the record book this season. Not only could Scott Dixon knock him down a peg but Will Power could do the same. The Australian is tied for third all-time in pole positions on 50 with Hélio Castroneves. Foyt is second all-time on 53. Since becoming a full-time Penske driver in 2010, Power has averaged 5.25 pole positions a season. The one outlier is Power's 2016 season where he won only one pole position.
It seems like Power will be second before we know it but this is one category where I think Power could end up as the all-time leader before his career is over. Once again, Mario Andretti is the all-time leader on 67 pole positions. Seventeen pole positions do not seem like a lot for Power and he is 37 years old. With the trend being drivers racing into their 40s and well into their 40s, it would not be crazy for Power to race another five years and pick up four pole positions a season. He doesn't seem to be slowing down as he led IndyCar last year with six pole positions. It is going to be close.
Marco Andretti Could Break the Record for Most Starts Between Victories
The third generation driver's most recent IndyCar victory came 109 starts ago. If he does not win until Portland or Sonoma he will set a record, which I don't know if he wants or not, which is most starts between victories. Graham Rahal holds the record at 124 starts. Should Andretti be winless entering Portland, the record will be his for the taking regardless if he wins one of the final two races or beyond.
The good news for Andretti is he could avoid breaking the record or match it. There are six oval races prior to Portland and the gap between Honda and Chevrolet has been erased on the short ovals. The expectation Andretti gets off the snide at a road or street course race seems low but with the lower downforce aero kit it could bring Andretti back into the conversation. In the DW12-era, four of Andretti's seven podium finishes have come on road/street courses while eight of his 14 top five finishes have come on road/street courses, including his most recent top five finishes, a fourth at Toronto last season. Maybe Andretti provides the biggest surprise of all and not only wins a race but does it at a Long Beach or Road America or Mid-Ohio.
Will There be Another Oval Race Where None of the Top Three Starters Lead a Lap?
This sounds odd because it is odd. One thing I noticed last year when looking at the Pocono box score is pole-sitter Takuma Sato did not lead a lap. Sato fell to the back and was never a factor in the race. That is strange but there has been plenty of oval races where second-place gets a jump on the pole-sitter and dominates. Then I noticed that second-place starter Simon Pagenaud also did not lead a lap. Even stranger but for a larger oval it is conceivable third-place gets a run on the leaders and checks out. Then I noticed third-place started Charlie Kimball did not lead a lap and I wondered when was the last time the top three starters in an oval race did not lead a lap?
I finally got a chance to look it up. Based off some rough research, that Pocono races was the 149th oval race since 1947 where the pole-sitter did not lead a lap and it was the first since Iowa in 2013 when Will Power did not lead a lap. It was the first race where neither driver on the front row led a lap since Milwaukee 1990 when neither Rick Mears nor Danny Sullivan led a lap.
It was the first time none of the top three starters led a lap in an oval race since DuQuoin 1968 when Al Unser, Bill Puterbaugh and A.J. Foyt all did not lead a lap. Bill Vukovich, Jr. led the first six laps from fourth on the grid and Mario Andretti led the final 94 laps after starting sixth.
I doubt it happens again in 2018. For all we know we might have to wait until 49 years.
Indianapolis 500 Victory Sparking a Championship Run
The last seven seasons have seen Indianapolis 500 winner not go on to win the championship. This comes after a period where the Indianapolis 500 winner won the championship five of the previous six seasons. This is the longest streak of the "500" winner not winning the championship since the first nine seasons of the IRL (1996-2004). Before that the next longest streak of the "500" winner not winning the champions was from 1971-1978 and the only drought longer than this one (since 1947) was from 1947-1954.
It isn't so much the "500" winner going on to win the title but the "500" being a championship contender and I am not sure if it says more about the Indianapolis 500 in the DW12-era or IndyCar in the DW12-era. Of the six Indianapolis 500 winners in the DW12-era, only Juan Pablo Montoya has finished in the top five of the championship and twice has the Indianapolis 500 winner finished outside of the top ten with Tony Kanaan and Alexander Rossi each finishing 11th in the championship in 2013 and 2016 respectively. And remember, the Indianapolis 500 has been double points since 2013, making these championship results even more peculiar.
To give you an idea of how odd the last six years have been, from 1947 to 2011 the Indianapolis 500 winner finished outside the top ten in the championship seven times and those drivers were Jim Clark (Indianapolis was his only start), Bobby Unser (not sure why he wasn't awarded points for his win in 1981. It was probably political with USAC, either way it was his only start), Al Unser (he made five starts from 15 races in 1987), Buddy Lazier (started two of three IRL races in 1996), Juan Pablo Montoya (only start in the 2000 IRL season), Hélio Castroneves (started two of 13 IRL races in 2001) and Dan Wheldon (he started two of 17 races in the 2011 IndyCar season).
Outside of those winners, the Indianapolis 500 winners since 1947 to finish outside the top five of the championship and were regular drivers (started 70% of the races or more) are Gordon Johncock (1973, seventh), Arie Luyendyk (1990, eighth, and 1997, sixth) and Eddie Cheever (1998, ninth).
Montoya was in the catbird seat for the championship from day one of the 2015 season until the final day but his "500" win didn't spark a championship pushes like Hornish, Jr., and Franchitti in 2006 and 2007 respectively. I want to see if an Indianapolis 500 winner can use that victory as an arch for an entire season and bring newcomers on a ride from a first experience in May until the middle of September when summer is about to give us a kiss goodbye.
Can Someone Other Than Penske, Ganassi or Andretti Win the Championship?
Since 2003, only one team not named Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing, Andretti Green Racing/Andretti Autosport or Newman/Haas Racing has won an American open-wheel racing championship and that was Forsythe Racing with Paul Tracy in the 2003 CART season.
It has been four-team domination for the past 15 years in IndyCar. Not that it is out of the ordinary. The early years of the IRL gave us different champions with the likes of A.J. Foyt Racing, Team Menard, Panther Racing Hemelgarn Racing and Bradley Motorsports all picking up silverware but on the CART side of things Penske, Ganassi and Newman/Haas won all seven championships from 1996-2002.
It has been a while since a fresh face has taken the highest honor in American open-wheel racing but with the universal aero kit this could be the year someone new gets a moment in the sun.
Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing has been one of the fastest teams in preseason testing and has not only one hopeful but two. Graham Rahal strung together three impressive seasons despite being held back with the Honda aero kit. Takuma Sato joins him off a career-year in 2017 and the 41-year-old appears to have reached a new level in his career. RLLR has a title, dating back to 1992 when team owner Bobby Rahal won with the then-Rahal/Hogan Racing but 26 years of waiting must feel like 26 lifetimes considering the team has had its ups and downs including a handful of years outside of IndyCar.
Besides the two RLLR drivers, Dale Coyne Racing and Sébastien Bourdais lost most of 2017 after the Frenchman's accident at Indianapolis. For the first three races, Bourdais and the perennial back-marker were on top and had everyone in IndyCar chasing them down. We will never know if a healthy Bourdais and DCR could have overcome the deficient Honda and made a championship push in 2017 but 2018 has reset the series and it is as good a time as ever for the Bourdais to add a fifth title and with the least likely of teams.
A.J. Foyt Racing's last title was 20 years ago with a fairly unknown Swede. Now the team has picked up arguably the most recognizable face in IndyCar in Tony Kanaan and beside him is a fairly unknown Brazilian in Matheus Leist. Testing has been promising for Super Tex's team. We have been waiting a long time for A.J. Foyt Racing to become a respectable team and with Kanaan it might shoot into the role of contender.
Outside of those three teams there is Schmidt Peterson Motorsports, which has had its moments but has yet to break into the top echelon of IndyCar teams. Ed Carpenter Racing was on the cusps of a championship with Josef Newgarden. Now the team has a new American driver in Spencer Pigot trying to get the team into the hunt. Carlin and Harding Racing are two new teams and a championship out of the boxes for either of these teams would rival the Vegas Golden Knights for newcomer of the year.
IndyCar is due for a set of new faces at the championship stage. Imagine the scene of a group of men and women who have typically gone under the radar basking in a California sunset under the mist of champagne and a downpour of confetti. Those may be the happiest faces we ever see in IndyCar.
Winners From the Weekend
You know about Daniel Abt but did you know...
Kevin Harvick won the NASCAR Cup race from Las Vegas, his second consecutive victory. Kyle Larson won the Grand National Series race. Kyle Busch won the Truck race.
Shane van Gisbergen swept the Supercars races from Adelaide.
Jason Anderson won the Supercross race from Atlanta, his fourth victory of the season.
Coming Up This Weekend
IndyCar's season opener at the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg.
All three Road to Indy series and Pirelli World Challenge will also be at St. Petersburg.
Supercross will be across the state of Florida at Daytona for Daytona Bike Week.
NASCAR will be at Phoenix.
World Rally Championship crosses the Atlantic for Rally Mexico.
Covering All Motorsports. From Indianapolis to Le Mans, Daytona to Monaco.
