I did one after the first quarter and I did one after the second quarter, I mind as well remain consistent and offer a third quarter report for the 2018 Verizon IndyCar Series season.
Time is running out and the championship is starting to come into focus. We can envision only a few drivers that will be lifting the Astor Cup at Sonoma in September while others are already fairy tale scenarios. In the third quarter, IndyCar had four different winners from four different teams in four races and while three teams and drivers were repeat winners we did get a fresh team on the top step of the podium.
As with the first quarter and first half report, this third quarter report will subjectively ranks the full-time teams through the first nine races of the season.
1. Andretti Autosport
We have a new team on top and, while it is a matter for debate, somebody new has to end up on top eventually and after Team Penske has arguably been number one for two-plus seasons, it is Andretti Autosport's time to wear the belt.
Nobody stood out in the third quarter of the season. No team won more than once. No team had more than three podium finishes. In fact, six different teams had a podium finish in the third quarter of the season but Andretti Autosport gets the nod and recency bias might come into play. Alexander Rossi smoked the field at Mid-Ohio. He had three top ten finishes in quarter three. Ryan Hunter-Reay had a few tough races but he finished second at Road America and he finished seventh at Mid-Ohio. Marco Andretti's best finish may have only been tenth but Zach Veach finished seventh and tenth in the last two races.
This team has been stout in 2018 and after a few rough years with the Honda aero kit it has shed the weight and is running with the big boys each week. The team has at least two drivers in the conversation for victory at every race and it deserves its moment in the sun.
2. Team Penske
Team Penske isn't falling that far. If it weren't for a lackadaisical race from Iowa, Josef Newgarden would have won two consecutive races but he has only one podium finish and Team Penske has only have three podium finishes to show for quarter three. Newgarden did have three top five finishes and he finished in the top ten in all four races in quarter three, as did Simon Pagenaud, whose best finish was second at Toronto but that was his only top five finish of the quarter. Will Power finished third at Mid-Ohio but his other three finishes were 23rd, sixth and 18th.
An argument could be made for Team Penske retaining the top spot, especially considering the team had three pole positions and swept the front row twice, but the team has had its missteps. Nobody can be on top forever and second isn't that bad.
3. Chip Ganassi Racing
It is hard to think the championship leading team is third best but that is how IndyCar is at this current moment.
The top three teams are close and Scott Dixon has Ganassi on the heels of Team Penske. He had one bad race at Iowa but he finished third, first and fifth at Road America, Toronto and Mid-Ohio respectively. Dixon doubled his championship lead in quarter three from 23 points to 46 points with four races to go. The championship is his to lose.
On the other hand, Ed Jones hit a summer slump. His best finish was ninth at Road America and he has finished outside the top ten in the last three races. He has dropped to 13th in the championship. He does have two podium finishes this season but he has only qualified in the top ten twice this season.
4. Schmidt Peterson Motorsports
You win a race, you cement yourself in fourth and Schmidt Peterson Motorsports did that.
James Hinchcliffe drove to the front at Iowa, hunted down Newgarden and caught him napping on his way to victory. On top of Hinchcliffe's victory, he had three top ten finishes in quarter three, including a fourth at Toronto.
While Hinchcliffe won a race, Robert Wickens has been stellar. He had top five finishes in all four races of quarter three including a third at Toronto and a second at Mid-Ohio and he has started in the top ten in 12 of 13 races. Wickens is sixth in the championship, his highest championship position. He is knocking on the door for that first career victory.
5. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing
There is a bit of a gulf from the top four to the rest of the field but if there is one team firmly in the middle it is Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. It hasn't been quite as good as the top four but nobody is challenging the team for fifth.
Graham Rahal remains in the top ten of the championship and he had three top ten finishes in quarter three. His 11 top ten finishes are tied for most this season with Dixon. While Rahal had three top ten finishes, Takuma Sato had two top five finishes, including a third at Iowa.
However, Rahal has not had a top five since the second Belle Isle race and his only podium finish remains the season opener at St. Petersburg. The good news is the team has been righting its qualifying woes. Sato has started in the top ten in five consecutive races and Rahal started in the top ten twice in quarter three after having only three top ten starts in the first nine races.
6. Ed Carpenter Racing
It is amazing what one podium finish can do but Ed Carpenter Racing has jumped to sixth.
Spencer Pigot finished second at Iowa, he finished eighth at Road America and while the last two races weren't great, Pigot has been much better in quarter three than the first half of the season. Jordan King has yet to score a top ten finish but in quarter three his finishes were 12th, 11th and 12th and he started eighth at Toronto. Ed Carpenter picked up a top ten finish at Iowa despite brushing the wall and causing the final caution.
7. Dale Coyne Racing
It was a rough third quarter but it ended up a high note for Dale Coyne Racing.
Sébastien Bourdais had an impressive drive from 24th to sixth at Mid-Ohio but that was Bourdais' only top ten finish in the third quarter and his starting position progressively got worse over quarter three from sixth to 15th to 17th to 24th. He has gone from third in the championship after quarter one to tenth at the end of quarter three.
Zachary Claman De Melo's season with the team came to a close. His only top fifteen finish of the quarter was 14th at Toronto and his best starting position was 17th. Pietro Fittipaldi made his return at Mid-Ohio but a still battered Miami-born Brazilian could only manage 22nd on the grid and 23rd in the final results.
8. Carlin
Charlie Kimball finished fifth at Toronto and that vaults Carlin up a position. While Kimball only finished in the top fifteen one other time in quarter three, he did complete all but six laps. His qualifying record is still something that needs to improve with 15th at Mid-Ohio being his best starting position.
Max Chilton earned the team its first Fast Six appearance at Mid-Ohio but a penalty for spinning Sato ended any promising result. His prior best starting position in quarter three was 18th while his best finish was 15th at Iowa.
9. A.J. Foyt Racing
Things are still not looking good for the Texas-based team.
Tony Kanaan may have finished sixth at Toronto but that was his only lead lap finish of quarter three. He started outside the top ten in all four races. Rookie Matheus Leist best finish in quarter three was 15th and while he started 12th at Toronto, he started 20th or worse in the other three races.
10. Harding Racing
Gabby Chaves and Conor Daly split the third quarter for Harding Racing. Chaves finished a lap down at Road America and he suffered the second retirement of his career at Iowa after handling issues.
Daly was a late substitute for Toronto and he qualified 11th and finished on the lead lap in 13th. He qualified 14th for Mid-Ohio but ran out of fuel late and finished 22nd.
Who Is Already Out?
It is easy to say who is still in and it seems like the Astor Cup will be going home with either Scott Dixon, Alexander Rossi, Josef Newgarden, Will Power or Ryan Hunter-Reay.
Since 1947, only twice has a champion not had a victory after 13 races in a season and those occurrences were with Al Unser in 1985, who did not win until the 15th race, and Gil de Ferran, who did not win until the 17th race in 2001. However, while it took those two drivers nearly the entire season to be victorious they were consistently on the podium and in the top five. Unser had five podium finishes, eight top five finishes and nine top ten finishes prior to his first victory while de Ferran also had five podium finishes, the Brazilian had seven top five finishes and ten top ten finishes prior to his first victory.
One other thing to consider is Unser was never outside the top five of the championship in the 1985 season. De Ferran was as low as seventh in 2001 but he was in the top five for the final ten races of the season including for the six races prior to his first victory. Unser took the championship lead with his first victory in 1985 while de Ferran was second in the championship but only five points behind Kenny Bräck after he won at Rockingham.
Who fits the Unser/de Ferran mold?
Robert Wickens is close. He has four podium finishes, seven top five finishes and ten top ten finishes. However, Wickens has not been better than sixth in the championship this season and he is currently sixth. Simon Pagenaud has only two podium finishes and his two runner-up finishes at Texas and Toronto are his only top five finishes this year. Graham Rahal fits in when it comes to top ten finishes but his lack of podium finishes and top five finishes takes him out of the discussion.
While Wickens, Pagenaud and Rahal might all be out because of the lack of a victory, current championship position could rule out another few drivers.
Since 1979, in 38 out of 52 seasons the driver leading the championship with four races to go has come on to win the title. Eight times has the champion been second with four races to and three times has the champion been third with four races to go. Only three times since 1979 has the champion been outside the top three with four races remaining and all three of those champions came with significantly shorter schedules. George Snider was sixth in the championship with four races to go in the 1981-82 USAC Gold Crown Championship but that was a much different circumstance than today. Kenny Bräck was fourth with four races to go in the 1998 Indy Racing League season, which only featured 11 races. The following season Greg Ray was sixth in the IRL with four races remaining in a ten-race schedule.
There is a hole in this argument as championship positions change between four to go and one to go. Dixon was second with four races to go in 2015 but he was third heading into the finale and still won the title. In fact, with four races to go he was second, 54 points behind Juan Pablo Montoya but he was 47 points back in third heading into the finale. In 2003, Dixon was third with four to go, 12 points behind Tony Kanaan but he dropped to fourth and 42 points behind Hélio Castroneves after the following race.
Looking at a smaller sample since reunification, only once has the champion been outside the top two with four races to go and that was Dario Franchitti in 2009. Five times has the championship leader with four races to go won the title while second in the championship with four races to go has won the title four times. Once again, this is not a perfect measuring stick. Ryan Hunter-Reay led the championship with four races to go in his championship season of 2012 but he dropped to second in the following race and entered the finale second to Will Power. The same goes for Dario Franchitti in 2011. He led with four races to go but dropped to second after Motegi and would re-take the championship lead at Kentucky, the final classified race of the season.
Of the five champions since 2008 who led the title race with four races to go only Dixon in 2008, Simon Pagenaud in 2016 and Josef Newgarden in 2017 did not lose the championship lead before the final checkered flag of the season.
It would be easy to cast aside Power and Hunter-Reay as being too far on the outside to win the championship and it is easy to say Dixon has this in the bag but recent IndyCar history tells us we should not be surprised if this things end up flipping at least once or twice in the final four rounds.
Where Do We Stand With the Universal Aero Kit?
I think everyone is happier than after quarter two when the Indianapolis 500 left people frustrated.
Road America might have been the worse of the four races but while the passing wasn't happening at the front the middle of the field saw Simon Pagenaud go from 14th to seventh and James Hinchcliffe went from 16th to tenth. Josef Newgarden appeared he was going to lap the field at Iowa and while only five cars finished on the lead lap the podium finishers Hinchcliffe, Spencer Pigot and Takuma Sato started 11th, tenth and 18th respectively. There were nearly 1,000 passes at Iowa. Nobody should be complaining.
Cautions may have allowed for strategy shake ups at Toronto but there was movement with Alexander Rossi and Newgarden both making up positions and getting back into the top ten after contact with Will Power and the barrier respectively. Pigot was also making up ground before a brush with the barrier ended his day. Another notable mover was Robert Wickens, who went from tenth to third.
Then there was Mid-Ohio, the race people are still talking about and many think it was the best IndyCar race held at the historic road course.
I think we are hopeful heading to Pocono and Gateway. Pocono should have much cooler conditions than the Indianapolis 500 and the front wing extensions should help the teams when it comes to the push cars were feeling in traffic. Gateway is kind of a toss up as it falls between Phoenix and Iowa in terms of size, shape and width. If it falls slightly more toward the direction of Iowa then the race could be really good but it would not take much for it to go in the other direction and more closely resemble Phoenix.
Portland will be an unknown while Sonoma is a lame duck event and if the original DW12 aero kit and the manufacture-specific aero kits didn't change much why should we expect the universal aero kit to produce a magnificent farewell to the track in wine country?
What To Watch For In The Final Quarter?
The championship! It is go time. It is a five-horse race. Can anyone beat Scott Dixon? Nobody thinks Scott Dixon is going to blow it, so who is going to win it? It will likely require a driver winning at least two races and likely having to finish in the top five in all four races.
Can Robert Wickens get a victory? He is by far the Rookie of the Year but he deserves a victory. I don't like saying a driver deserves anything, especially victories, but no other winless driver has come this close so many times this year.
What teams end on a high note? What teams end on a decline? It seems like Dale Coyne Racing picked the right time to get back on track but there were two weeks off between Mid-Ohio and Pocono and that easily could kill all the momentum. Ed Carpenter Racing seemed to be making strides and Pocono and Gateway are two great opportunities for the team to get results especially at Pocono when taking into consideration the team's pace at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Silly season is going to pick up. Scott Dixon is staying at Ganassi. We are waiting to hear if McLaren is coming. Who else will enter the series? We think Colton Herta is coming to IndyCar in 2019 regardless if he wins the Indy Lights championship this year but if he doesn't, will that allow current teammate Patricio O'Ward to make a promotion? Will Santiago Urrutia finally make that final step up? There is always a few names from outside the Road to Indy system that end up knocking on doors. You never know who will be looking to make a move Stateside.
Finally, can Honda close out the manufactures' championship? Honda has won eight of 13 races and it has had multiple cars on the podium in 12 of 13 races. This success has Honda holding nearly a 100-point lead over Chevrolet. Honda needs to win just one of the final four races to secure more victories in a season over Chevrolet for the first time since Chevrolet rejoined the series in 2012. The good news for Chevrolet is it won at Pocono, Gateway and Sonoma last year. With Team Penske in Chevrolet's corner, the manufactures' championship isn't over by a long shot.
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