Friday, October 26, 2018

Friday Five: Mexico City, Phillip Island, Martinsville, Catalunya, Suzuka

While there are five finales, this weekend, there are five other series in action. Three could have a champion decided this weekend but that is highly unlikely in one of them. One title has already been decide and this is the first of three dead rubbers in terms of the championship. The other has manufactured it so the championship is decided at the finale.

Mexico City
Take two for Lewis Hamilton, who has not able to clinch his fifth World Drivers' Championship last week at Circuit of the Americas but he heads to the site of where he clinched last year's title, Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez. Despite finishing third at Austin, Hamilton has helped himself in terms of the championship.

With 75 points left on the table, Hamilton leads Sebastian Vettel by 70 points and the margin forces Vettel to win the remaining three races while Hamilton would have to score fewer than five points in the final three events. Hamilton can clinch the title this weekend with a finish of eighth or better. Last year's race saw a turn one collision between Hamilton and Vettel force cars to the back of the field and scramble to make up positions. Vettel recovered to finish fourth but Hamilton's ninth place finish was enough to clinch the title.

The contact between the two title rivals allowed Max Verstappen to lead all 71 laps on his way to victory. He was the seventh different driver to win the last seven Mexican Grand Prix, extending a list that includes Ayrton Senna, Alain Prost, Riccardo Patrese, Nigel Mansell, Nico Rosberg and Hamilton as winners.

Kimi Räikkönen's victory at Austin has him third in the championship on 221 points and four clear of fellow Finn Valtteri Bottas. Verstappen's performance from 18th on the grid to second has him fifth on 191 points while Daniel Riccardo rounds out the top six on 146 points after his seventh retirement of the season.

Nico Hülkenberg is up to 61 points, four clear of former teammate Sergio Pérez. In three starts in his home country, Pérez has finishes of eighth, tenth and seventh. Kevin Magnussen's disqualification for his car consuming over 105kg of fuel last week keeps him on 53 points. Fernando Alonso is tenth on 50 points with Esteban Ocon, another disqualifed driver from Austin for exceeding fuel flow limits is a point back.

Mercedes leads Ferrari in the World Constructors' Championship with 563 points to 497 points. Red Bull sits on 337 points with Renault on 104 points and Haas rounding out the top five on 84 points.

McLaren has 58 points and is only 11 points clear of Force India. Scuderia Toro Rosso has 32 points and are four clear of Sauber with Williams bringing up the rear on seven points.

McLaren has not scored a point in the last three races and has not had a double points day since Azerbaijan in April while Force India has had both cars score points in four of the six races since the team was sent back to zero after filing for administration.

The Mexican Grand Prix will take place at 3:10 p.m. ET on Sunday October 28th.

Phillip Island
Marc Márquez locked up the MotoGP title last week with his victory at Motegi but he is looking for his fourth consecutive victory and Honda's fourth consecutive victory in the Australian Grand Prix. No manufacture has won the Australian Grand Prix in the top class in four consecutive years. Márquez could become the fourth rider with four Australian Grand Prix victories, joining the eight-time winner Valentino Rossi, six-time winner Casey Stoner and four-time winner Mick Doohan.

After falling off the bike at Motegi, Andrea Dovizioso sits second on 194 points and is nine points clear of Rossi. Dovizioso has not finished on the podium since 2011 when he was third. He won at Phillip Island in the 125cc class in 2004 ahead of Jorge Lorenzo and Casey Stoner, his only victory at the track.

Maverick Viñales is 30 points behind his Yamaha teammate in fourth with 2016 Australian Grand Prix winner Cal Crutchlow rounding out the top five on 148 points. Johann Zarco and Danilo Petrucci are tied on 133 points. Lorenzo has dropped to eighth after missing the last two races due to injury and he will miss Australia as well with Álvaro Bautista moving onto the factory bike from Ángel Nieto Team. Bautista's fifth place finish at Motegi matched his best result of the season.

Álex Rins and Andrea Iannone rounds out the top ten on 118 points and 113 pints respectively. Dani Pedrosa is 11th on 95 points. Pedrosa has not finished on the podium this season and his only podium finishes in the top class at Phillip Island were a third in 2009 and a second in 2013. His only victory at the track was in 250cc in 2005.

The Australian Grand Prix is scheduled for 1:00 a.m. ET on Sunday October 28th.

Martinsville
NASCAR heads to Martinsville and the championship has been cut to eight drivers.

Kyle Busch holds the championship lead with 4,055 points, one ahead of Kevin Harvick. Martin Truex, Jr. is on 4,038 points and he is twenty points ahead of Chase Elliott. Clint Bowyer, Joey Logano and Kurt Busch are tied on 4,015 points and Aric Almirola is eighth on 4,006 points.

Busch won last year's autumn race at Martinsville and it moved him onto the final race at Homestead. He is one of four Chase drivers with a Martinsville victory. He and his brother Kurt have each won twice at the track. Harvick won the spring 2011 race and Bowyer won at Martinsville earlier this season. Kyle Busch has six consecutive top five finishes at Martinsville and he has led in five consecutive races. His brother Kurt won the spring race in 2014 but he has finished outside the top ten in the last in the last eight races. His victory in 2014 is his only top ten finish in his last 25 Martinsville starts.

Truex, Jr. has five top ten finishes in his last seven Martinsville starts. Logano has started inside the top five in every one of his Martinsville starts with Team Penske and he leads all active drivers with four pole positions at Martinsville. Almirola has one top five finish and three top ten finishes in 19 Martinsville starts. He has finished outside the top ten in his last eight Martinsville starts. Elliott finished third at Martinsville in the spring 2017 race and he finished ninth in this year's spring race. He led 123 laps in last year's race after contact with Denny Hamlin took him out of the race.

The top three active drivers in average Martinsville finish are no longer racing for the championship. Jimmie Johnson is on top at 7.9 with Denny Hamlin at 10.1 and Brad Keselowski at 12.2. Kyle Busch is the top championship-eligible driver at 12.7 with Bowyer on 13.5 and Logano on 13.8. Johnson has nine Martinsville victories while Hamlin has won at the track five times. Johnson leads all active drivers with 19 top five finishes, 24 top ten finishes, 29 lead lap finishes and 2,862 laps led at Martinsville.

The NASCAR Cup race will take place at 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday October 28th.

Catalunya
Three drivers are alive for the World Rally Championship and things tightened up last time out in Wales.

Hyundai's Theirry Neuville has seen his championship lead shrink to seven points over five-time defending championship and M-Sport Ford's Sébastien Ogier. Ogier won Wales Rally GB and finished third in the power stage while Neuville finished fifth in the rally and fourth in the power stage. Ott Tänak remains in the hunt with the Toyota driver but after only picking up four points after finishing second in the power stage. He is 21 points behind Neuville with 60 points left on the table.

Ogier is a three-time winner of Rally de Catalunya but Ford has not won this event since Markko Märtin in 2004. Neuville finished third to Ogier in 2016, his only podium in this race and Tänak finished third in last year's race.

Sébastien Loeb is back for this third rally of the season. Loeb finished fifth in Mexico and 14th in Tour de Corse and he finished fifth and second in the power stage in the respective rallies. Loeb has won Rally de Catalunya eight times, the most all-time. Citroën picked up its tenth victory in this event last year with Kris Meeke.

Suzuka
Super Formula is not the only thing on track this weekend. The penultimate round of the World Touring Car Cup season will be run 3.609-mile course. With 174 points on the table, 15 drivers are alive for the championship and less than 100 points cover the top ten drivers.

Despite not scoring a point in the most recent round at Wuhan, Gabriele Tarquini retained the championship lead on 241 points and Thed Björk only closed the gap to six points after the Swede only scored one point at Wuhan. Yvan Muller scored two points at Wuhan and he is tied with Björk for second in the championship.

Pepe Oriola is fourth on 207 points, two ahead of Jean-Karl Vernay, who won the first race from Wuhan. Esteban Guerrieri is sixth on 199 points, four ahead of Norbert Michelisz. Frédéric Vervisch has scored points in eight consecutive races and he has 192 points. Yann Ehrlacher has not scored points in the last five races and he is ninth on 178 points with Rob Huff rounding out the top ten on 162 points.

The World Touring Car Championship held a race in Japan the ten prior seasons. Tom Chilton and Michelisz split last year's races from Motegi. Suzuka hosted the WTCC on four occasions from 2011-2014 but the first three years were run on the Suzuka East circuit with 2014 being the only prior year run on the grand prix track. Tarquini and José María López split the 2014 races.

This race will feature the return of Tiago Monteiro, who has been out since a testing accident at Barcelona last September. Monteiro's' most recent race was July 16, 2017 at Autódromo Termas de Río Hondo in Argentina. He has one WTCC victory in Japan; it came at Motegi in 2015.

The first race will be at 1:05 a.m. ET on Saturday October 27th with the second race scheduled for 10:05 p.m. ET later that night and the final race will take place at 11:30 p.m. ET.

Over or Under?
1. Over or Under: 2.5 race leaders of the Mexican Grand Prix?
2. Over or Under: 10.5 points for Álvaro Bautista?
3. Over or Under: 75.5 caution laps?
4. Over or Under: 10.5 points for Sébastien Loeb this weekend?
5. Over or Under: 0.5 victory for Honda at Suzuka?

Predictions
1. Kimi Räikkönen does not finish on the podium.
2. Three different manufactures finish on the podium.
3. Less than six championship-eligible drivers finish in the top ten.
4. Sébastien Ogier retakes the championship lead.
5. There is at least one French driver winning a race.