1. The record for youngest pole-sitter is broken
Wrong! Max Verstappen was the favorite to take this record but the closest he got was in Mexico and it seemed through three practice sessions and two rounds of qualifying that Verstappen would get his maiden pole position. Of course, he lost too much time on his final hot lap and had to start second next to Daniel Ricciardo. Mexico was one of two front row starts for Verstappen, he started second to Lewis Hamilton in Singapore but Mexico was the one that slipped through his fingers.
This will be one record Verstappen will not hold. No big deal. Life will move on and so will his career. The more important thing for Verstappen is he finished fourth in the world championship and he did it with five consecutive podium finishes to close out the season and seven podium finishes from the nine races after the summer break. To put it other terms, Verstappen scored the second most points in the final nine races with 144 points, 13 more than Sebastian Vettel, 29 more than Valterri Bottas, 39 more than Kimi Räikkönen and 92 more than his teammate Ricciardo. He was still 51 points off Hamilton but Verstappen ended 2018 in a good position.
Pole positions will come for Verstappen but he is trending in the right direction heading into 2019.
This will be one record Verstappen will not hold. No big deal. Life will move on and so will his career. The more important thing for Verstappen is he finished fourth in the world championship and he did it with five consecutive podium finishes to close out the season and seven podium finishes from the nine races after the summer break. To put it other terms, Verstappen scored the second most points in the final nine races with 144 points, 13 more than Sebastian Vettel, 29 more than Valterri Bottas, 39 more than Kimi Räikkönen and 92 more than his teammate Ricciardo. He was still 51 points off Hamilton but Verstappen ended 2018 in a good position.
Pole positions will come for Verstappen but he is trending in the right direction heading into 2019.
2. Fernando Alonso gets a podium before his 301st start
Wrong! This was way too ambitious of a prediction and the switch to Renault engines did not do wonders for McLaren. The team was better but still not great.
3. Ferrari does not win the French Grand Prix
Correct! It was Mercedes-Benz taking the victory with Lewis Hamilton leading all 53 laps from pole position. Sebastian Vettel would get into Valtteri Bottas at the start, damaging both race cars and taking each out of contention for the victory. Kimi Räikkönen was never a threat and finished third.
4. Brendon Hartley ends the 2018 season with the fourth-most points for a New Zealand driver
Wrong! Hartley finished the 2018 season with four points and that is fifth-most for a New Zealander in Formula One. He fell two points short of fourth-most. I didn't think Hartley was going to light the world on fire but I thought Toro Rosso would have a few races where both cars were hooked up and both would get points. The biggest missed opportunity was Japan where Hartley started sixth but dropped and finished 13th.
I don't know where Hartley goes from here. Toro Rosso distanced itself from him during the season it felt like. Hartley chose Toro Rosso over the Ganassi IndyCar program and Ganassi might have kicked Hartley to the curb anyway after 2018 once Felix Rosenqvist became available but there is no vacancy in IndyCar. The only LMP1 seats worth a damn are Toyota and with the super-season, we are in the middle of the season and not the offseason and I am not sure how many seats will be changing but nothing points to Toyota shaking up its driver line-ups.
Hartley is kind of hitting restart on his career. He might have to go back to LMP2 rides and that sucks when you consider the big step back he took going from Red Bull development driver to Daytona Prototypes with Scott Mayer as his co-driver. I hope he finds something but I am having trouble locating a suitable landing spot.
I don't know where Hartley goes from here. Toro Rosso distanced itself from him during the season it felt like. Hartley chose Toro Rosso over the Ganassi IndyCar program and Ganassi might have kicked Hartley to the curb anyway after 2018 once Felix Rosenqvist became available but there is no vacancy in IndyCar. The only LMP1 seats worth a damn are Toyota and with the super-season, we are in the middle of the season and not the offseason and I am not sure how many seats will be changing but nothing points to Toyota shaking up its driver line-ups.
Hartley is kind of hitting restart on his career. He might have to go back to LMP2 rides and that sucks when you consider the big step back he took going from Red Bull development driver to Daytona Prototypes with Scott Mayer as his co-driver. I hope he finds something but I am having trouble locating a suitable landing spot.
5. Williams has its worst finish in the Constructors' Championship with Mercedes engines
Correct! Williams finished dead fucking last in the Constructors' Championship with seven points and 26 points off Toro Rosso. It was always going to be a difficult year and I am not sure it would have mattered if the team had two veterans opposed to pubescent Lance Stroll and Sergey Sirotkin.
6. Mercedes becomes the fifth manufacture to win 100 pole positions
Correct! Mercedes scored its 100th pole position in Brazil and for safe measure it picked up its 101st pole position at Abu Dhabi. This is a bit more impressive when you take into consideration the team had only won two of the first seven pole positions to start the season meaning it had to go ten for 14 to reach before the season was out. Mercedes needs seven pole positions to surpass Lotus for fourth all-time amongst constructors.
7. Haas F1 moves to sixth all-time in most race starts without a podium finish
Correct! Haas F1 did not finish on the podium in 2018 and it has started 62 races in its short history in Formula One. The only constructors with more grand prix started and not finished on the podium are Minardi, Ostella, Ensign, ATS and Marussia. Marussia could be overtaken in 2019, as the team did not score a podium finish in 73 races.
8. Force India reaches 1,000 points before winning a race
Correct! Force India surpassed 1,000 points with Sergio Pérez finishing third in the Azerbaijan Grand Prix and it had not stood on the top step of the podium before that race.
9. Every team scores at least ten points
Wrong! Williams fell three points short.
10. Stoffel Vandoorne is the top championship finisher out of the last three GP2/Formula Two champions
Wrong! Vandoorne was the worst of the three drivers with Charles Leclerc scoring 39 points, Pierre Gasly scoring 29 points and Vandoorne on 12 points.
McLaren needed more than Renault to pick up the results and Vandoorne's team seemed to be the most lost on the entire grid. I am not sure there was greater discrepancy between teammates this year than Alonso and Vandoorne. Alonso wasn't great but he was competitive and in those same races Vandoorne was swimming with a 25-pound weight around his neck.
I kind of hate Formula One because in four years Vandoorne has gone from stud who cannot be passed up and scoring on his Formula One debut to a driver that most people think is trash. Need I remind everybody that Vandoorne won the GP2 Series championship by 160 points over Alexander Rossi and anyone who follows IndyCar knows Rossi is a supreme talent. Vandoorne hasn't completely lost it nor were his Formula Reanult 3.5 Series and GP2 results flukes. The man got in to Formula One with the wrong team at the wrong time and now he is off to Formula E. I hope he likes Kool-Aid.
McLaren needed more than Renault to pick up the results and Vandoorne's team seemed to be the most lost on the entire grid. I am not sure there was greater discrepancy between teammates this year than Alonso and Vandoorne. Alonso wasn't great but he was competitive and in those same races Vandoorne was swimming with a 25-pound weight around his neck.
I kind of hate Formula One because in four years Vandoorne has gone from stud who cannot be passed up and scoring on his Formula One debut to a driver that most people think is trash. Need I remind everybody that Vandoorne won the GP2 Series championship by 160 points over Alexander Rossi and anyone who follows IndyCar knows Rossi is a supreme talent. Vandoorne hasn't completely lost it nor were his Formula Reanult 3.5 Series and GP2 results flukes. The man got in to Formula One with the wrong team at the wrong time and now he is off to Formula E. I hope he likes Kool-Aid.
11. Both Alfa Romeo Sauber drivers have at least two finishes of ninth or better
Correcet! Not only did Charles Leclerc score 39 points as a rookie but his first points finish was sixth in Azerbaijan and he closed out the season by finishing in seventh position in four of the final six races. Marcus Ericsson got a bit of his mojo back. He finished second in Bahrain and he would get two more ninth-place finishes in Germany and Mexico.
Ericsson's results were not stellar but he doubled his career points total this season and he is heading to IndyCar with positive momentum. Ericsson was encouraging and he gave off the right vibe the last few races. It sounds crazy but losing his Formula One ride might have been the best confidence boost for him and I think he will do well in IndyCar. I am not sure if he is going to match what Robert Wickens did and I am not sure he will win rookie of the year but I expect a few weekends where it clicks for Ericsson and he qualifies in the top ten and runs in the top ten and might break into the top five in what was a competitive outing that involved a handful of overtakes.
Ericsson's results were not stellar but he doubled his career points total this season and he is heading to IndyCar with positive momentum. Ericsson was encouraging and he gave off the right vibe the last few races. It sounds crazy but losing his Formula One ride might have been the best confidence boost for him and I think he will do well in IndyCar. I am not sure if he is going to match what Robert Wickens did and I am not sure he will win rookie of the year but I expect a few weekends where it clicks for Ericsson and he qualifies in the top ten and runs in the top ten and might break into the top five in what was a competitive outing that involved a handful of overtakes.
12. Antonio Giovinazzi makes more starts in sports cars than in Formula One
Correct! Sports car starts: One; Formula One starts: Zero. Scoreboard. I have to admit it was a lot closer than I thought it was going to be. Next year, the result will be different. Giovinazzi will team with Kimi Räikkönen at Sauber.
Final Words
Is there any reason not to expect Lewis Hamilton winning his sixth World Drivers' Championship and another ten races in 2019?
Who is going to beat him?
Ferrari might have had the best car in 2018 but Sebastian Vettel found ways to lose races and in turn hand the championship to Hamilton. Can Vettel correct his mistakes? Vettel is a four-time champion. Yeah, he should be able to improve Mercedes found something in the second half of the season and Vettel may improve but it might not be enough to challenge Hamilton.
Hamilton had one retirement, 17 podium finishes and 20 top five finishes this season. Vettel had one retirement, 12 podium finishes and 17 top five finishes. Hamilton's worst finish when starting on pole position was third. Vettel had two victories, a fourth, an eighth and a retirement from his five pole positions. There is a big gulf Vettel has to overcome and I do not see Mercedes or Hamilton falling back to Vettel and Ferrari. Marginal gains will not be enough.
Outside of Hamilton and Vettel, I think Valtteri Bottas will win a race. He had too many slip away from him in 2018 and I think he will have his day but he will still be fighting for third in the world championship.
Vettel has a new teammate in Charles Leclerc and the 21-year-old's rookie season was encouraging. Can Leclerc be to Ferrari what Daniel Ricciardo was to Red Bull in 2014 and stun everyone and top Vettel in year one? I think that is a lot to ask but Ferrari would not have moved Leclerc up from Sauber just to have him settle in the role of wingman. If that is what the Scuderia wanted it would have kept Kimi Räikkönen for another season. I think Leclerc will be competitive and I think a race victory might be asking a lot from the Monegasque driver but he is young enough not to know better and could put himself in a position to get a victory.
If there is one driver that can challenge Hamilton and Vettel, it is Max Verstappen. We already covered how he finished 2018 and if Red Bull gets off to a good start not only do I think Verstappen will finish third but he could make a push for second. Pierre Gasly falls in a similar boat as Leclerc but Gasly does not have the promising results to fall back on.
The one concern with Red Bull is the switch to Honda. Toro Rosso went from seventh in the constructors' championship and 53 points to ninth and 33 points after switching from Renault to Honda. McLaren went from ninth on 30 points to sixth on 62 points after dropping Honda for Renault. I would feel better about the switch had Toro Rosso not lost ground in 2018 from its 2017 results. The Honda experiment has yet to breakthrough and yield the desired results and nothing points to Honda having it figured out in 2019. This could be a wasted few seasons for Max Verstappen. If Honda causes Red Bull to fall further behind Mercedes and Ferrari and bring the team down to the level of Renault, Haas and Force India, this will inevitably lead to Verstappen's exit from the team.
Outside of the top three teams, I worry we will lose Daniel Ricciardo's best seasons to Renault. In the same way we should expect Hamilton to win another championship, why should we expect Renault or any other manufacture to leap into the fight with the top three teams? Outside of Williams in 2014 and 2015, we have not had another manufacture mixing it up at the front. Ricciardo is a talented driver but all the talent in the world isn't going to take Renault much further up the grid.
There is no reason to be confident that McLaren is going to turn it around, Haas will get a podium finish, Sauber will climb to new heights with Räikkönen or that any of the four Honda-powered Red Bull-owned cars will be competitive. With Red Bull switching to Honda I think it is more likely that Formula One goes from three power teams to two and third in the constructors' championship will be even further off than Red Bull was after 2018.
Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull all broke 400 points this year and Red Bull was still over 200 behind Mercedes and over 100 behind Ferrari. Renault was fourth on 122 points. We might see a new team finish third in the constructors' championship but if that happens it is more likely that third, fourth, fifth and possibly sixth all score over 100 points but none break 250 points and Mercedes and Ferrari are both clear of third by over 200 points.
I do not expect much to change in 2019 for Formula One, at least not at the very top. Where the fight might get tighter is for fifth and sixth and that is not where the increased tension is needed.
