Monday, January 14, 2019

Musings From the Weekend: Dream Race of Champions

BMW ruined the bed in Morocco and it allowed Jérôme d'Ambrosio to get his first victory on track in his Formula E career and his first victory on track since the 2010 Monaco sprint race in GP2. There was a staggered restart and a first time winner in Supercross. German manufactures remain unbeaten in the Dubai 24 Hours. New Zealanders defended their house. Daniel Suárez got a new ride. IndyCar released its television schedule. The Dakar Rally continues on although one competitor was tossed after running over a spectator. The spectator has a broken femur but is still alive. That is a grim note to end on. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.

Dream Race of Champions
Coming up this weekend is one of my favorite events of the motorsports year. It is the Race of Champions. I still haven't figured out why I like it so much or why I take it as seriously as I do but it is what it is and it is that time of year again.

Mexico hosts this year's event and as with most Race of Champions we are less than a week away and we still do not have a full entry list announced. We will be getting driver announcements on a daily basis likely from now until the start of the competition on Saturday. It is disappointingly unprofessional. It is bad enough that we don't find out the location of the next Race of Champions until two months before the event.

Race of Champions could be a bigger event if people knew the date and location at least nine to ten months in advance and the lineup should be known at least a month or two out. The entire schedule should be known. We know the matches for a World Cup six months in advance. We should be going into Race of Champions knowing who is meeting whom in the group stages and knowing what the knockout round match ups could be.

The Race of Champions needs to take it to the next level and start taking itself seriously.

How great could this event be?

It should feature 32 countries, 32 pairs of drivers. It should be a three-day event. The first day should be just the group stage of the Nations Cup with two sessions, one in the day and one at night. Day two should be the knockout stage of the Nations Cup and day three should be a 64-driver single-elimination tournament to decide the Champion of Champions.

This is what it should look like (P.S. It is a lot harder to come up with 32 countries and driver pairings that I first thought it would be but I made it work):

Group A (The Alps Group)
Germany: Sebastian Vettel and René Rast
Why These Two Drivers: Vettel is one of the best drivers in this tournament and until someone regularly beats him Vettel should always represent Germany. Mick Schumacher has already been announced for Germany this year but Rast is an underrated driver. He won the Nations Cup last year with Timo Bernhard, a DTM title in 2017 and he ended 2018 with six consecutive victories and fell short in the championship. Plus, Rast is a strong sports car driver in prototypes and GT cars.
Notable Snubs: Bernhard, Nico Hülkenberg, André Lotterer

Austria: Richard Lietz and Lucas Auer
Why These Two Drivers: Lietz has been one of Porsche's best drivers with a world championship and three class victories at Le Mans to show for it. Austria doesn't have a deep lineup but Auer did well in DTM and he moves on to Super Formula.
Notable Snub: Philipp Eng

Switzerland: Sébastien Buemi and Neel Jani
Why These Two Drivers: Switzerland has never run at the Race of Champions and it should field a team. Buemi and Jani are World Endurance Drivers' Champions, both are Le Mans winners and both have been successful in single-seaters.
Notable Snubs: Marcel Fässler, Simona de Silvestro

France: Sébastien Ogier and Jean-Éric Vergne
Why These Two Drivers: Ogier has won the Champion of Champions competition before and he has won six consecutive World Rally titles. Vergne won the Formula E title and he has had plenty of success in LMP2 competition. They got championships to their names and that is why certain Formula One drivers are not in France's lineup.
Notable Snubs: Sébastien Bourdais, Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly, Loïc Duval, Simon Pagenaud

Group B (The North Sea Group)
England: Lewis Hamilton and Sam Bird
Why These Two Drivers: One is a five-time World Drivers' Champion and the other is regular winner in Formula E and GT competition. Also, England is lacking exciting young drivers. Norris and Russell aren't there yet.
Notable Snubs: Jenson Button, James Calado, Mike Conway, Lando Norris, George Russell

Scotland: David Coulthard and Paul di Resta
Why These Two Drivers: Coulthard is a two-time Champion of Champions winner and di Resta was vice-champion in DTM while having successful LMP2 outings with United Autosports. In a similar vain to England, not a lot of exciting young Scottish drivers coming up the pipe and it is more concerning that England.

Netherlands: Max Verstappen and Jeroen Bleekemolen
Why These Two Drivers: Verstappen won twice last year in Formula One. Bleekemolen is one of the best GT drivers in the world not with a factory program. Someone has to wake up and get him a sweet gig although it doesn't seem to matter where he goes. He is victorious everywhere.
Notable Snubs: Robin Frijns, Renger van der Zande

Belgium: Laurens Vanthoor and Thierry Neuville
Why These Two Drivers: Vanthoor has won a lot and he is a Porsche factory driver. Neuville let the World Rally Championship slip through his fingers but he is the next best Belgian driver and you want a diverse pairing. Rally drivers do well in this competition.
Notable Snubs: Jérôme d'Ambrosio, Dries Vanthoor, Bertrand Baguette

Group C (The Americas)
United States: Alexander Rossi and Colin Braun
Why These Two Drivers: Read This...
Notable Snubs: Ryan Hunter-Reay, Josef Newgarden, Kyle Busch, Patrick Long, Ricky Taylor, Jordan Taylor, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Kevin Harvick

Canada: James Hinchcliffe and Bruno Spengler
Why These Two Drivers: Because Canada's most exciting driver is not able to compete. You know Robert Wickens would be the number one driver for Canada. Hinchcliffe is good, Spengler is a DTM champion and Lance Stroll isn't good enough.
Notable Snubs: Nicholas Latifi, Zachary Claman De Melo

Mexico: Sergio Pérez and Patricio O'Ward
Why These Two Drivers: I nearly had Daniel Suárez and O'Ward because Pérez slipped my mind but Pérez is the best Mexican driver in the world. Why O'Ward over Suárez? He is 20 years old, has won in Prototype Challenge, Indy Lights and was bad fast in his first IndyCar outing.
Notable Snubs: Suárez, Memo Rojas, Esteban Gutiérrez

Brazil: Hélio Castroneves and Lucas di Grassi
Why These Two Drivers: I stuck with the actually lineup for Brazil because Castroneves is sneaky good and di Grassi probably should be in Formula One. Brazil is in a place though where it could have three or four teams, however.
Notable Snubs: Felipe Nasr, Pipo Derani, Tony Kanaan, Augusto Farfus, Pietro Fittipaldi, Nelson Piquet, Jr.

Group D (Scandinavia)
Sweden: Felix Rosenqvist and Johan Kristoffersson
Why These Two Drivers: Because Rosenqvist should be in Formula One and has succeeded in everything he has every gotten behind the wheel of and Kristoffersson did well last year in the Race of Champions and he just won the World Rallycross title after winning 11 of 12 races. By the way, Scandinavia is too deep to just be Team Nordic. Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Norway should all have their own teams.
Notable Snub: Marcus Ericsson

Denmark: Tom Kristensen and Kevin Magnussen
Why These Two Drivers: Because Kristensen has been knocking on the door of winning Champion of Champions for year and he has won the Nations Cup. I nearly had both Magnussens as a team but Kevin is coming off his best season in Formula One.
Notable Snubs: Jan Magnussen, Nicki Thiim, Michael Christensen, Christian Nielsen, Marco Sœrensen

Finland: Toni Vilander and Valtteri Bottas
Why These Two Drivers: Because Kimi Räikkönen would never do it. Vilander is a Pirelli World Challenge champion and he has plenty of victories in GT competition. Bottas drive for Mercedes-Benz in Formula One. By the way, Finland hasn't had a participant in Race of Champions since Juho Hänninen in 2011!
Notable Snubs: Räikkönen, Jari-Matti Latvala, Esapekka Lappi.

Norway: Andreas Mikkelsen and Petter Solberg
Why These Two Drivers: Because Norway does not have much else to choose from. But Solberg has won the Nations Cup and does well in this event and Mikkelsen is the best Norway has got but shout out to Porsche driver Dennis Olsen. Maybe next year bud.

Group E (The Mediterranean Group)
Italy: Raffaele Marciello and Alessandro Pier Guidi
Why These Two Drivers: Because Antonio Giovinazzi isn't match fit, Marciello won a bunch last year in Blancpain GT Series and Pier Guidi is the defending World Endurance GT Drivers' champion.
Notable Snubs: Giovinazzi, Gianmaria Bruni, Mirko Bortolotti, Davide Rigon

Spain: Fernando Alonso and Antonio García
Why These Two Drivers: It is Alonso and García won the IMSA GT Le Mans title.
Notable Snubs: Miguel Molina

Portugal: Filipe Albuquerque and António Félix da Costa
Why These Two Drivers: Albuquerque has won Champion of Champions in 2010 and since then he has become a great sports car driver. Da Costa never got a shot at Formula One and he has become BMW's hidden gem and has won in Formula E and maybe should have two victories.

Monaco: Charles Leclerc and Stéphane Richelmi
Why These Two Drivers: Because I could form a pairing of Monegasque drivers and every pairing I could get was getting added to the competition but in all seriousness, Leclerc is at Ferrari and Richelmi has had a good career in sports cars after decent success in junior formula series.

Group F (The Rugby Championship)
South Africa: Kelvin van der Linde and Sheldon van der Linde
Why These Two Drivers: They were the only two South African drivers I could think of that are a decent age and moderately successful. Kelvin could be following the footsteps of Laurens Vanthoor.

Australia: Daniel Ricciardo and Will Power
Why These Two Drivers: Why not these two drivers? Australia has a lot of great drivers. These two are head and shoulders above the rest.
Notable Snubs: Jamie Whincup, Matt Campbell, Craig Lowndes

New Zealand: Scott Dixon and Nick Cassidy
Why These Two Drivers: One is Scott Dixon and Cassidy was vice-champion in Super GT and Super Formula. Cassidy is diverse and young and the best kept secret in Japan.
Notable Snubs: Scott McLaughlin, Shane van Gisbergen, Brendon Hartley, Mitch Evans

Argentina: José María López and Esteban Guerrieri
Why These Two Drivers: López turned touring car success into a Toyota LMP1 ride and Guerrieri is good in touring cars. Outside of that the pool is not deep for Argentina.

Group G (The Yeesh Group or the "I have built the table and have four extra parts" Group)
Colombia: Juan Pablo Montoya and Carlos Muñoz
Why These Two Drivers: Montoya is the best of our generation and a Champion of Champions winner. Muñoz is underrated and someone in IndyCar should give him a full-time ride.

Venezuela: Pastor Maldonado and EJ Viso
Why These Two Drivers: Because I was able to find two Venezuelan drivers and was stretching for 32 pairs. Plus, deep down you want to see what Maldonado could do in this competition and you know he could end up in the final eight or not win a race and lose each time in a different spectacular fashion.

Russia: Romain Rusinov and Mikhail Aleshin
Why These Two Drivers: Rusinov is the best driver who doesn't want to leave LMP2 competition and Aleshin is a fearless driver. Plus, I can't take Daniil Kvyat seriously.

Estonia: Ott Tänak and Ralf Aron
Why These Two Drivers: Tänak nearly won the World Rally title last year and he has developed nicely over the last few seasons. Aron has been respectable in Formula Three but it feels like he is going to end up like Tio Ellinas, Facu Regalia and Luca Ghiotto who are really good in Formula Three/GP3 and then stall out.

Group H (The Asia Group)
Japan: Naoki Yamamoto and Kazuki Nakajima
Why These Two Drivers: Yamamoto won both Super Formula and Super GT GT500 championships in 2018 and Nakajima is coming off a win at Le Mans and leads the World Endurances Drivers' Championship. Nakajima has had a great career for himself in Japan as well.
Notable Snubs: Takuma Sato, Kamui Kobayashi, Ryō Hirakawa

China: Ho-Pin Tung and Ye Yifei
Why These Two Drivers: Tung has done well in LMP2 competition. Yifei won the French F4 Championship a few years ago and he was third in Formula Renault Eurocup in 2018.

United Arab Emirates: Ed Jones and Khaled Al Qubaisi
Why These Two Drivers: Jones has shown promise in IndyCar and Al Qubaisi was in this competition last year.

Thailand: Alexander Albon and Sandy Stuvik
Why These Two Drivers: Albon is getting a Formula One drive and even if he wasn't he was set to be in Nissan's Formula E program. Albon was third in the Formula Two championship last year behind George Russell and Lando Norris. Stuvik won the Euroformula Open Championship in 2014, had two rough years in GP3 and then moved to GT3 competition where he has been slightly better.

The bracket for the knockout round held on day two would look like this:


It could set up a Germany-England meeting in the round of 16. The Americas would face Scandinavia in the first knockout round. The best of the Mediterranean would face the best of the Southern Hemisphere and a China vs. Russia match could happen in the round of 16. One other change I would make is every round would be a best-of-three with the final being best-of-five.

As for the Champion of Champions competition, how do you seed a 64-driver field?

The best thing I could come up with is super license points but even that is a bit tricky. Those with a super license do not have points and there are some drivers that participate in series that do not receive super license points, most notably the World Rally Championship. Then there are competitors that are not active or have not been active and have zero points but are clearly better than that, most notably Tom Kristensen and David Coulthard. Also, the most updated super license points I could find was prior to the 2018 season and I wasn't going to do the math and deduct the 2015 points and add in the 2018 totals so the 2017 numbers is what I use. Deal with it.

Here is what I did:

I gave all drivers with a super license 200 points, which means they are all top seeds.

I gave Sébastien Ogier 100 points, Kristensen 100 points, Coulthard 40 points and Thierry Neville, Petter Solberg and Andreas Mikkelsen all got five points.

The best way to explain this is to go seed-by-seed.

One Seeds: Lewis Hamilton, Sebastien Vettel, Max Verstappen, Lucas di Grassi
Why: The top three were no brainers and I included di Grassi, one, to make it different and reward a driver successful in something other than Formula One who still has a super license and, two, because the seeding really doesn't matter. One seeds and two seeds are about the same.

Two Seeds: Charles Leclerc, Valtteri Bottas, Daniel Ricciardo, Fernando Alonso
Why: They all good. You put Leclerc in the same quarter as Hamilton, Bottas with Vettel, Ricciardo with Verstappen and Alonso with di Grassi. One seeds and two seeds are about the same.

Three Seeds: Sergio Pérez, Kevin Magnussen, Sébastien Buemi, Sébastien Ogier
Why: You get the super license drivers out of the way, Buemi has the most points amongst non-super licensed drivers and Ogier has won six consecutive World Rally titles.

Four Seeds: Tom Kristensen, Neel Jani, Scott Dixon, Kazuki Nakajima
Why: All these guys feel like four seeds. Kristensen and Ogier were tied on 100 points but I gave Ogier the advantage and the better seeding since he is active.

Five Seeds: Felix Rosenquvst, Sam Bird, Will Power, Nick Cassidy
Why: Like the four seeds, these all seem about right.

Six Seeds: David Coulthard, Laurens Vanthoor, Alexander Rossi, Hélio Castroneves
Why: Coulthard, Vanthoor and Cassidy were all tied and Cassidy's diversity got him in the better seed. It makes sense that Castroneves is a six-seed.

Seven Seeds: José María López, Romain Rusinov, Filipe Albuquerque, Juan Pablo Montoya
Why: Rusinov seems a bit high because he has only been an LMP2 driver and Montoya probably would have been higher if he remained active in IndyCar.

Eight Seeds: Alexander Albon, Raffaele Marciello, Ho-Pin Tung, René Rast
Why: Albon is this high from his Formula Two success and Marciello is living off his GP2 success. Tung is like Rusinov with a boost from LMP2 competition. Rast could be a bit higher.

Nine Seeds: Antonio García, Naoki Yamamoto, Stéphane Richelmi, Ralf Aron
Why: GT success is not worth that much but you would have to think Yamamoto's 2018 season would leap him up a few seeds. Aron is a bit high. When there are 64 drivers, somebody has to be in the back half and when you lay all the names out on paper you face that reality.

Ten Seeds: Richard Lietz, Jean-Éric Vergne, Alessandro Pier Guidi, Paul di Resta
Why: GT racing is not heavily weighed and Vergne slipped a bit but his Formula E title would likely have boosted him up into at least a six-seed if we had the most updated super license points. It at least sets up a high seed to make a run in the tournament.

Eleven Seeds: Thierry Neuville, Petter Solberg, Andreas Mikkelsen, Bruno Spengler
Why: Those five points gets these three rally drivers off the bottom. Spengler has been good but not as great as he once was in DTM.

Twelve Seeds: Ed Jones, António Félix da Costa, Lucas Auer, Mikhail Aleshin
Why: Because if we have learned anything from the NCAA tournament 12 seeds are dangerous and all four of these drivers could win a race.

Thirteen Seeds: Toni Vilander, Carlos Muñoz, Colin Braun, Pastor Maldonado
Why: Because Vilander and Muñoz were the final two drivers with points. Braun doesn't have any points and Maldonado has been out of Formula One for three years. No points for you.

Fourteen Seeds: Jeroen Bleekemolen, James Hinchcliffe, Patricio O'Ward, Johan Kristoffersson
Why: They all have no points but are better than the remaining drivers.

Fifteen Seeds: EJ Viso, Esteban Guerrieri, Ott Tänak, Kelvin van der Linde
Why: Tänak could be higher. The only reason I didn't give him five points was because his WRC success has not been as spread out as the other three. He is that sneaky 15-seed though and that is not a bad thing. The other three, Viso has been driving Stadium Super Trucks as his most recent gig, Guerrieri is only in touring cars and van der Linde is young.

Sixteen Seeds: Sheldon van der Linde, Ye Yifei, Khaled al Qubaisi, Sandy Stuvik
Why: These drivers are either silver-rated or only won in junior formula series. They are the sacrificial lambs for the top four.

Here is what the top half of the bracket looks like:

And the bottom half:


It seems pretty even. There isn't one quarter that is more stacked than another. But this is what Race of Champions should be. Fans should be looking ahead and seeing what the match ups could be and drivers should be thinking about this. There should be the nerves of a bracket and a top seed being caught out.

You have Verstappen and Ricciardo set up as a possible quarterfinal but Ricciardo has Tänak in the first round. If Tänak takes out Ricciardo early it opens up the bottom of that quarter. Verstappen isn't a lock for the quarterfinals. Power would be a possible round of 16 opponent and Power has a good road. He is in a trick 5v12 match but if he defeats da Costa, I think he knocks out either Jani or Braun in round two and then he has Verstappen. That is more of a toss up than most would think.

In the di Grassi quarter, you have Alonso, Montoya, Ogier and Rossi set to be chalk out of round one in the bottom of the quarter. How do you choose one of those four to make the quarterfinals? Cassidy/Jones is a 5v12 match and that could go either way but Kristensen would be waiting for either of those two and it could set up for a meeting of former Audi teammates in the round of 16 with di Grassi and Kristensen.

If there is one weak area it is the bottom of the Vettel quarter. While Vettel and Dixon could be a round of 16 match up with Yamamoto and Bird being sleepers, the bottom seems to line up perfectly for Bottas. Bottas has Guerrieri and then would face the winner of Rusinov/Pier Guidi. He seems a lock for the round of 16. As for his potential opponent, Vanthoor/Solberg is interesting but neither seems like a threat and then there is Magnussen/O'Ward, not something to be scared of either.

The Hamilton quarter is really tight. Hamilton could have to face Nakajima or Rosenqvist in the round of 16 and then could have Leclerc, Pérez or Castroneves in the quarterfinals. Hamilton could have a difficult pair of match ups between Rosenqvist and Leclerc in consecutive rounds and it would shape up to be a changing of the guard type of meeting each time. Pérez wouldn't be safe in round one. Kristoffersson could knock him off and if Kristoffersson did I think he could beat either Castroneves or Neuville.

There are many things that stand in the way of this happening: Scheduling logistics, driver contracts, time, interest, fitness but one other reason is organization. Race of Champions is relaxed in terms of promotion but it could be much bigger. The event is only as big as the level of effort the organizers put into it. The organizers are playing small ball when they have two outs in the bottom of the ninth with no one on and down a run. It is time to start swinging for the fences.

Until that changes this elaborate competition with over five-dozen of the best drivers in the world will have to remain in the pillows.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Jérôme d'Ambrosio but did you know...

The #88 Car Collection Motorsport Audi of Christopher Haase, Frédéric Vervisch, Dimitri Parhofer and Rik Breukers won the Dubai 24 Hours.

Here are the Dakar Rally class leaders with four stages to go:

Bikes: Pablo Quintanilla leads American Ricky Brabec by four minutes and 38 seconds.
Quads: Nicolas Cavigliasso has over an hour lead.
Cars: Nasser Al-Attiyah has a 37-minute lead over Sébastien Loeb and a 41-minute lead over Stéphane Peterhansel.
Trucks: Eduard Nikolaev leads Dmitry Sotnikov by ten minutes.
SxS: Gerard Farres Guell leads Sergei Kariakin by 13 minutes.

The #22 United Autosports Ligier-Nissan of Paul di Resta and Phil Hanson won the 4 Hours of Buriram. The #2 United Autosports Ligier-Nissan of Wayne Boyd, Chris Buncombe and Garett Grist won in LMP3. The #11 CarGuy Racing Ferrari of James Calado, Kei Cozzolino and Takeshi Kimura won in GT for the third consecutive race.

Liam Lawson won the bookends of the Toyota Racing Series races from Highlands Motorsports Park with Brendon Leitch winning the second race of the weekend.

Blake Baggett won the Supercross race from Glendale, his first career victory.

Olivier Panis and Andréa Dubourg split the Andros Trophy races from Isola 2000.

Coming Up This Weekend
You know about Race of Champions.
The Chili Bowl is an all-week affair.
Supercross returns to Anaheim.
Toyota Racing Series will be at Teretonga Park.