There is still over a month until the 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season opener from St. Petersburg but with a growing series we need an entire month to preview the participants and over the course of the next few weeks we will look at every team that will be on the grid.
Our first preview looks at Team Penske, the most successful team in IndyCar, which is coming off what would have been a terrific season for pretty much every other team on the grid but was a bit of a downer compared to other recent seasons.
2018 Team Penske Review
Wins: 6 (Phoenix, Barber, Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Indianapolis 500, Road America, Gateway)
Poles: 8 (Barber, Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Texas, Road America, Iowa, Toronto, Pocono, Portland)
Championship Finishes: 3rd (Will Power), 5th (Josef Newgarden), 6th (Simon Pagenaud)
2019 Drivers:
Josef Newgarden - #2 Verizon/Hitachi Chevrolet
Fresh off a championship in year one with Team Penske, Newgarden started his title defense far from a hangover with two victories in the first four races, including a dominant two days in the wet and dry at Barber Motorsports Park, his third victory in the last four visits to the track.
He headed into the Indianapolis 500 as the championship leader but the end of spring was left with a few average finishes while his title rivals picked up large sums of points. A pair of poor races at Belle Isle and at Texas, where he struggled with tire wear despite starting from pole position, saw Newgarden drop to fifth in the championship.
Summer started with a dominant day at Road America and what was turning into a historic beat down at Iowa before Newgarden and Tim Cindric decided to take the role of the hare and both were humiliated. Instead of winning a victory at the 7/8-mile oval, he finished fourth but jumped up to second in the championship. He was back in control at Toronto but the rough roads of Exhibition Place bounced him into the barrier coming to the green flag while leading and all he could salvage was a ninth place finish.
Despite two missed opportunities, Newgarden was still second in the championship but in the competitive world of IndyCar his stretch of eight consecutive top ten finishes saw him DROPPED from second to fifth in the championship.
Numbers to Remember:
3: Victories for Newgarden in 2018, most for a driver to unsuccessfully defend a championship since Scott Dixon won five in 2009.
4: Consecutive seasons leading more than 300 laps. He has led the most laps in two of those seasons and he has never been lower than third in laps led in any of those four seasons.
21: Laps led in the first three seasons of Newgarden's career.
Predictions/Goals:
When you improve you championship position in every year in IndyCar to the point you are champion you are bound to take a step back and 2018 ended up being that season, though he didn't fall far. He went from 23rd to 14th to 13th to seventh to fourth to first before he fell back to fifth.
He won three races but those were his only podium finishes. He did not get another top five finish until Iowa, when he finished fourth but led 229 laps and got caught napping, costing him a victory to James Hinchcliffe. A bright side to Newgarden's season is his qualifying record improved greatly and his 5.2 average starting position was his career best. He was running at the finish of every race, the first time that has happened in his career.
Newgarden has to find that little bit that he did not have in 2018. It isn't that he lost that much. The Iowa race was a massive brain fade. Toronto was a race he got caught off after he brushed the barrier while leading coming to a restart. He could have had five victories. Would that have made him champion? No but he still had a respectable season. He was in the championship conversion for the entire season but unlike 2017 he never took over and made himself the focus. It is kind of impressive he could have eight consecutive top ten finishes and drop three positions in the championship. It comes down to getting a few more victories but turning top five finishes into podium finishes and top ten finishes into top five finish.
Scott Dixon won the championship with a few races unexplainably going his way, most notable St. Petersburg and Gateway and two of Dixon's victories came in races where Newgarden had the pace but had something go wrong. Newgarden has to prevent the races where the bottom drops out but also put himself in better positions to capitalize when other hit adversity. The only race Newgarden really did that in 2018 was Phoenix and it ended up with a victory. Outside of that, it seemed like he was always behind his nearest championship competitors.
I do not think Newgarden is going to fall off the map. He is going to be solid. It is that last 5% that is the difference between a championship and a top five championship finish. He had it in 2017 and didn't have it in 2018. It is tough to get it when considering his teammates let alone the rest of the IndyCar grid.
Will Power - #12 Verizon Chevrolet
The season did not start off great for Power. He started second at St. Petersburg but spun in turn one and the first lap of the season and the best he could get in his recovery was tenth. A brush of the wall ended his day at Phoenix and Long Beach was a bright spot in the season, where Power caught a break and finished second after the likes of Sébastien Bourdais and Scott Dixon were penalized for pitting under yellow. However, things swung against Power in the wet at Barber where he hydroplaned into the pit wall and ended his hopes of victory early.
The second quarter of the season was some of Power's best driving. His first victory came in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis in a tire compound shuffle with Robert Wickens and Power had the right tires for the right stint. The race was the Indianapolis 500 and Power was one of the best drivers for the entire race. When it came time to flex he put himself in position to take the lead and runaway with it when it came time for the likes of Jack Harvey, Stefan Wilson and Oriol Servià to stop for a splash of fuel. Power took the Indianapolis 500 victory and the championship lead. A seventh and a second at Belle Isle assured Power would be the championship leader heading to Texas.
It went downhill from there. Power struggled with tire wear at Texas but managed it well only to have an accident with Zachary Claman De Melo end his night. He started second at Road America and the car broke on him coming to the green flag. He had a sixth at Iowa but Power had a handful of accidents at Toronto and couldn't seem to get out of the way. He left Canada fifth in the championship.
Results picked up back in the States. He had three consecutive podium finishes with a third at Mid-Ohio, a second at Pocono and a victory at Gateway, a race where Power's went all out and opened a gap to stop for a splash of fuel and still come out in second with a conserving Alexander Rossi in his sights and easily chased and passed. Right when it seemed he was back in the championship fight the mechanical issues caught him out from pole position at Portland and a trip to the tire barriers derailed his title hopes. The season ended with a third place finish at Sonoma.
Numbers to Remember:
8: Podium finishes in 2018, Power's most since he had nine in 2010 and 2011.
9: Consecutive seasons finishing in the top five of the championship.
10: Lead lap finishes for Power in 2018, his fewest since 2012.
Predictions/Goals:
It is really hard to see Will Power not winning another championship in his career. It wouldn't be a disappointment if it didn't happen. He has one championship, he had plenty of championship runs that ended up falling short, he is approaching the mountaintop when it comes to pole positions, he has surpassed the 30-victory mark and he got an Indianapolis 500 victory. His legacy is set but with his driving style and his ruthlessness a second title could be in the works in 2019.
What will it take to get that second title? He cannot have multiple horrible finishes like he has come accustomed to racking up in recent seasons. He had four finishes outside the top twenty last year. He had three finishes of 20th or worse in 2017. In 2016, he had three finishes in 20th. Despite this track record, he still has nine consecutive finishes in the top five of the championship.
We know he doesn't have to work on qualifying, his average starting position was 2.8 last year with ten front row starts and his worst starting position was seventh. The one thing that has bitten Power more in recent seasons has been mechanical issues and that is very uncharacteristic of Team Penske. It cost him at the start of Road America, where he started second, and Portland, where he started on pole position.
It is crazy to say but Power needs to pick it up on road and street courses. He has become a whiz on ovals and his less-than-stellar races have been on road and street courses in recent seasons. Of course, it seems like the mechanical issues seem to crop up more on the road and street courses. If this team can eliminate the problems that seem to disproportionate affect Power compared to other Team Penske drivers he will be in the championship fight and a second title will be within his grasp.
Simon Pagenaud - #22 Menards/DXC Technology Chevrolet
The Frenchman's season started off poor by Pagenaud's standard. A 13th at St. Petersburg was followed by a tenth at Phoenix despite starting second and a race where he didn't make it to turn one at Long Beach because Graham Rahal ran over him from behind. Things got better with three consecutive top ten finishes at Barber and the two Indianapolis races. He would have finished outside the top ten in both Belle Isle races had it not been for Alexander Rossi's blown tire while in second position, which elevated Pagenaud to tenth.
His first strong outing was Texas, where Pagenaud handled the tires better than the rest of the Penske drivers and stayed at the front. He was not able to keep up with Scott Dixon but held off a charging Rossi for second. He missed out on the second round of qualifying at Road America by 0.0003 seconds but he went from 14th to seventh in the race. After a solid eighth-place finish at Iowa, Pagenaud was at the front the entire race at Toronto but had nothing for Dixon and finished second again. Mid-Ohio put up a charge from 17th to eighth.
After the summer break he finished eighth at Pocono, a fourth at Gateway, another run from the back but this one with a few cautions helping him move from 22nd to sixth. Pagenaud ended the year with his tenth consecutive top ten finish with a fourth at Sonoma.
Numbers to Remember:
2: Consecutive seasons ending with ten consecutive top ten finishes.
31: Laps led in 2018, Pagenaud's fewest as a full-time driver since he led 19 laps as a rookie in 2007. He led zero laps in his three substitute appearances in 2011 for the injured/absent Ana Beatriz, Justin Wilson and Simona de Silvestro.
4: Only four champions since 1996 led fewer than 31 laps in the season before a championship (excluding rookies and Dario Franchitti, who ran NASCAR in 2008 and won the title in 2009). Those champions were Jimmy Vasser in 1996, who led 20 laps the year before, Greg Ray in 1999, ho led 23 laps the year before, Buddy Lazier in 2000, who led five laps the year before and Scott Dixon in 2003, who led zero laps the year before in CART.
83: Laps needed to reach the 1,000 laps led milestone.
Predictions/Goals:
Win a race! I have said it before but Pagenaud was really good in 2018 but there was not a race he could have won. This wasn't 2015 Pagenaud where he seemed off and we struggled to make sense of it in his first year with Penske but why you are used to penciling Pagenaud to have one day flexing his muscle, it didn't really occur in 2018.
If Pagenaud repeats what he did in 2019 he will likely have a race or two fall his way. He is at the front, he is in the right position in nearly every race and he typically brings the car home and on the lead lap. I expect Pagenaud to take a step forward but not necessarily like he did from 2015 to 2016. Could he be a championship contender? Absolutely. It would be no surprise if any of the three Penske drivers won the championship.
While Pagenaud is gentle with equipment, having completed over 2,000 laps in six consecutive seasons, one area he could improve is his qualifying form. Pagenaud has 11 pole positions in his IndyCar career. Eight of those came in 2015. Newgarden found the Penske pace in 2018 but Pagenaud has fallen back since his championship. After averaging a starting position of 5.2 and 3.9 in his first two Penske seasons, he has dropped to 8.6 and 8.0 in the last two seasons.
Penske is coming off a down season. Six victories is a down season after having won ten races in each of the previous two years but it was still a year where all three drivers finished in the top six of the championship. In the DW12-era, Penske has had multiple drivers finish in the top five of the championship in every season. This team is going to be fine in 2019.
The 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 11th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage will begin at 1:00 p.m. ET.
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