Sunday, April 14, 2019

First Impressions: Long Beach 2019

1. This was another whooping Alexander Rossi laid on the IndyCar field at Long Beach and it feels like five races of pent up frustration relieved in his home state. From the untimely caution at Portland to the first lap damage at Sonoma to a disappointing fifth at St. Petersburg, another untimely yellow at Austin and going to his least favorite track of Barber, Rossi's results have not added up to some of the performances he has put on. In none of those races did he stand on the podium and he likely should have been on three of them. Rossi wasn't messing around from the first stint, opening up a gap of over eight seconds to Scott Dixon. If there is one driver you expect to hang in with a leader in the first stint it is Dixon but he had nothing for Rossi. The dominance continued into the second stint and Rossi was in the mid-68 second lap range while most the other drivers were in the low-69 second range.

Rossi was not challenged the rest of the way and he pulled away. He won this race by 20.2359 seconds. He led I think all but five laps. It was just an outstanding performance.

Last year, Rossi cough up a lot of points and while Austin was a big miss, he has been stout. It is still early. This is a de facto quarter point of the season but Rossi has shown this pace on a regular basis in the last two seasons. If he keeps it up and does not have any more hiccups he will be in the championship conversation when the series returns to California in September.

2. Josef Newgarden played everyone again and he got a second place finish out of it. This is what he did in St. Petersburg except it got him a victory there. Newgarden ran a little longer on that opening stint and the likes of Will Power and Scott Dixon got caught in traffic. Newgarden flipped the gap and he made up a few positions. If he keeps doing this he is going to make it tough on Rossi and everyone driver in the field to win the championship.

3. I am not going to be concerned about Scott Dixon. Yes, he lost a podium finish after a slow pit stop because the fuel probe would not engage on his final stop. He lost ground in the championship and he couldn't keep up with Rossi on the opening stint but while we worry about Rossi coughing up points this is likely going to be the one thing to go against Dixon all season and he still finished third. He finished exactly where he was when he had the problem. The man is Teflon. We pencil Dixon into a top five result before every race. He is going to maximize his opportunities and all he could manage was third today. The victories will come and he is going to make up ground.

4. Graham Rahal was solid today and this is a big rebound from the disappointment at Barber. He misses out on the podium after a blocking call on the final lap but fourth is nothing to be disappointed about. It is only two races but the last two races point that Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing has found something. There are a lot of races to go but Rahal has had good runs in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and that is the next race. With Allen McDonald now apart of the organization, the man behind Indianapolis 500 pole positions for the likes of Alex Tagliani, James Hinchcliffe and Ed Carpenter, Rahal has to be entering the month of May with more confidence then he has had in any of year.

5. If there is one driver that should have gone to a three-stop strategy it was Ryan Hunter-Reay. He was quick and he missed out on the Fast Six by a little bit after being in the top three for most of the weekend. If Hunter-Reay had gone to the three-stop strategy I think he could have done better than fifth. I don't think he would have beat Rossi but I think he could have pulled out a podium finish. He ran the fastest lap in this one and I think it would have been interesting to see him run flat out for 85 laps. It is still a positive result for Hunter-Reay considering the misfortune he has had at Long Beach.

6. Simon Pagenaud had another solid day and that has to be frustrating because all he has are solid days but never are those days phenomenal. We know Pagenaud can finish sixth place but when is the Frenchman from 2016 going to return and he qualify on the front row and led close to half the race? We know he has it but it is unfathomable Pagenaud has not broken through in over two years. You would still take him as your driver but it is understandable if you are starting to lose your patience. You just got to be strong. The day is coming for Pagenaud.

7. Seventh place is not bad but Will Power had another stubbed toe. Power didn't lose an engine or a turbo or a gearbox but he was running in contention for a podium and then had an overboost issue bite him while in third position exiting turn 11. He was a sitting duck into turn one and was always going to lose a position to Dixon but it went worse when Power blew the corner and an additional four cars went by. The good news for Power is he is the best driver in the history of the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and that is the next race, he is the defending Indianapolis 500 winner and he is still with Team Penske. There is plenty of time for him to turn around his season.

8. I think Takuma Sato should take an eighth place finish. It is a good result after his victory and as I said before, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing is heading into the month of May on a high. I am excited for Sato because with an Allen McDonald prepared car he should be quick. Outside of his year at Andretti Autosport, this might be the best car he has had at Indianapolis and he will step behind that wheel on a great run of form. 

9. James Hinchcliffe made up a lot of ground on the first pit cycle and he got a top ten result out of it but ninth was the most he could get out of it. Hinchcliffe was good this weekend before getting caught out when Tony Kanaan caused a red flag in qualifying but I don't think he was going to be challenge for the top five even if he had advanced from the first round of qualifying on Saturday. 

10. This feels like a missed opportunity for Felix Rosenqvist. He probably should have started in the top six had it not been for his accident in the second round of qualifying. I feel like he played it safe and that is understandable but I wish Ganassi rolled the dice and had Rosenqvist on a three-stop strategy. I think he had the ability to do it and pull out a better result than tenth. If anything, maybe the best way to boost a young driver's confidence is to say he is going to drive flat out today. I think he would have loved it and I think he would have pushed for a top five result.

11. Sébastien Bourdais could only manage 11th and I think Bourdais should have tried a three-stop strategy. Dale Coyne loves going offbeat and he didn't today. I think he should have gone for it. He is veteran. He knows what he is doing. The team was working the two-stop strategy into his favor last week at Barber. I think he would have been able to do the same with three stops today.

12. Quickly through the rest of the field: Patricio O'Ward lost a lot of spots on the first stint when he was conserving fuel, which was odd. I still think 12th place is good for O'Ward and he has been the best Carlin driver this season despite no pre-season testing. Marco Andretti was good but dropped out of the top ten after the first stop and couldn't get back in that fight. Max Chilton had a good day and finished 14th. Zach Veach had to make a pit stop for fuel with two laps to go and dropped to 17th.

13. We need to take about A.J. Foyt Racing on its own again. This team reminds me of when Dale Coyne Racing hired Carlos Huertas and Francesco Dracone. The team is better than that. Matheus Leist finished 15th but this is the best he can do. Foyt rushed the kid. He wasn't ready for IndyCar and he is underdeveloped. 

We are watching the final days of Tony Kanaan. He went deep into the tires in qualifying and when word came out Kanaan was battling a hurt knee and back I started to think this is how the ironman streak ends. Kind of like Brett Favre. It doesn't end on top. It ends because an old gunslinger doesn't have the strength to walk into the street. It ends in less than spectacular fashion.

Foyt has been at the rear of the field for a long time but it has had some bright spots, especially with Takuma Sato. The team isn't that far off. In the third practice session Kanaan and Leist were the bottom two cars but they were both within 1.1 seconds of the fastest time. If they find a half-second both cars are fighting to make the second round of qualifying. 

I want this team to be competitive and the team has a history of making too many changes but 2020 has to be step into the future for the team and that likely means letting go one of the most popular drivers of the 21st century. 

14. Ed Carpenter Racing is lost. Ed Jones and Spencer Pigot were 17th and 18th respectively. The team has not had a top ten finish all season. It has been regressing each race since Josef Newgarden left for Team Penske. The team is dying for an oval. I think that will at least be a pick me up but there are only five ovals. The team needs a shakeup because we know it can be a championship contender.

15. Colton Herta clobbered the turn nine wall while fighting for a top ten result and it was his first mistake in an IndyCar. It was bound to happen and these are back-to-back terrible results after his fuel pressure issue at Barber but he will have three weeks to regroup. Marcus Ericsson and Jack Harvey had a coming together in the fountain section and Harvey ended up in the flowers, a first that I can recall. We really haven't seen a spotless weekend from Ericsson yet but that hasn't entirely been his fault. It seems like his first round qualifying group always gets a red flag and it keeps him from completing a hot lap. He has made his mistakes but he has shown competitive pace. I think he just needs one uneventful weekend. Harvey has been good and this was a set back but I think he and Meyer Shank Racing will be fine. Santino Ferrucci blew turn one and stalled during the first pit cycle. That killed any of hope of a top ten finish. 

16. This was a fun race. It wasn't the most active race but it was fun. It was Long Beach and the dye was cast when 95% of the field chose the two-stop strategy. If five or seven drivers tried the three-stop strategy it is a different race. You would have had drivers coming late but we didn't get that. I really wish at least one front-runner tried the three-stop strategy and I think that is the biggest takeaway from this race. It is Long Beach. We know what it is capable of providing and there is no reason to be upset after this one. 

17. We get three weeks off. I do not mind the time off. We need a little break. The teams will not mind it. It will not be a silent three-week period. There is testing at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway on April 24th. After that we heading into the month of May and there are two races scheduled. There is plenty to looking forward to and there is plenty of racing. You just need to be patient. Good things come to those that wait. Patience.