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| IndyCar is back in Texas |
Coverage:
Time: Coverage begins at 8:00 p.m. ET on Saturday June 8th with green flag scheduled for 8:45 p.m. ET.
TV Channel: NBCSN
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and Paul Tracy will be in the booth. Kevin Lee, Kelli Stavast, Jon Beekhuis and Robin Miller will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Thursday:
First Practice: 8:00 p.m. ET (Two-hour session)*
Friday:
Second Practice: 3:00 p.m. ET (60-minute session)*
Qualifying: 6:30 p.m. ET (NBCSN will have live coverage of this session)*
Saturday:
Race: 8:45 p.m. ET (248 laps)
* - All practice and qualifying sessions are available live with the NBC Sports Gold IndyCar pass.
How Will Texas Play Out?
We were asking the same question last year and it seems to be the case every year at Texas. Between the changes in aero packages to track changes to tire compound differences, Texas Motor Speedway always seems to offer something different.
Last year's race saw Firestone introduce a different tire compound after a handful of tire failures occurred in the 2017 race. Not only did this tire clear up the concerns over failures but it degraded at a high rate and made for an interesting race.
Team Penske swept the top three positions last year in qualifying with Josef Newgarden and Simon Pagenaud on the front row and Will Power in third. Newgarden started the race strong, leading the first 59 laps with Pagenaud leading the next three but Chevrolet teams lead only 23 of the final 186 laps. The Penske cars struggled with tires blistering and Newgarden fell multiple laps down with a penalty for jumping the final restart being a deathblow. Pagenaud also suffered from blistering but was able to stay in the top ten and he worked his way back into the top five with the help of a few cautions.
Robert Wickens led 31 laps from fourth on the grid while Alexander Rossi led seven laps from eighth on the grid. Scott Dixon ran an aggressive strategy, not worrying about fuel mileage nor did he have tire concerns. Dixon was running so hard that he was trying to make it on four stops while some were set to make the race on three stops.
Two weeks ago, Chevrolet showed strong pace at Indianapolis with the manufacture sweeping the top four positions in qualifying and taking six of the top nine spots. Chevrolet teams led the 155 of 200 laps but in the second half of the race, during a 60-lap green flag run from lap 78 to lap 138, the race started to shift and the Chevrolets had to conserve more fuel than the Honda entries. This allowed Alexander Rossi to control the pace from second on the grid with Rossi running nearly four miles per an hour faster a lap than the likes of Pagenaud and Carpenter. Rossi pushed the Chevrolets to run laps around 220 MPH, while the Chevrolet teams were trying to stay around 216 MPH in order to avoid making an extra pit stop. This allowed Rossi to take the lead with 22 laps to go with the Chevrolet teams unable to keep up without risking being forced to make another pit stop.
As we know, the Chevrolet teams got the caution needed to avoid making a final stop and that caution allowed Pagenaud to match Rossi's speed and ultimately lead to his victory.
While the 2017 Texas race had 23 lead changes, last year's race only had nine lead change while having 688 total passes with 242 passes for position. This year's Indianapolis 500 was actually went down in the number of passes and passes for position compared to 2018. The total passes at Indianapolis went from 633 to 584 with the number of passes for position decreasing by over a hundred, from 428 to 323.
The one thing to note from Texas races since the start of the DW12-era is only once has the winner started in the top five and that was Ed Carpenter from fifth in 2014. This streak occurs after 11 consecutive Texas winners had started on one of the first two rows.
Firestone has brought two compounds to Texas for Thursday practice and will select one for Saturday's race.
How Will Texas Shift the Championship?
Texas is the final race before IndyCar's first off week since the start of the month of May and it marks the halfway point in the season. Last year at Texas Scott Dixon won the race, took the championship lead and never looked back on his way to his fifth title.
Newgarden leads Rossi by 15 points but Newgarden has one top ten finish in seven Texas starts. He has never finished on the lead lap in this race. This comes despite having led laps in the last three trips to the 1.5-mile oval. Rossi has started in the top ten in each of his three Texas starts but last year was his first top ten finish when he came home in third behind Pagenaud. Pagenaud has four top five finishes and five top ten finishes from seven Texas starts, including three consecutive top five results improving from fourth to third to second each year. He enters with an average finish of 6.1, over eight positions better than Newgarden's average finish at the track and just fewer than six spots better than Rossi.
For the drivers outside the top three in the championship, Texas is one final chance to launch a driver into the championship discussion before the start of summer. Twenty-five points cover the top three, the difference between winning a race and finishing seventh. Dixon is fourth in the championship, 52 points behind Newgarden. Takuma Sato rounds out the top five, 61 points back. Power is sixth, trailing his teammate by 81 points and Ryan Hunter-Reay is the final driver within 100 points of Newgarden with Hunter-Reay 97 points back.
Last year, the top five drivers in the championship after Texas ended up being the top five in the championship in the final standings with Dixon taking the title over Rossi, Power, Hunter-Reay and Newgarden. In 2017, Newgarden was seventh in the championship after Texas but 49 points covered the top seven. Newgarden would win the championship over Pagenaud, who was second after Texas, Dixon, who dropped from first after Texas to third, Hélio Castroneves, who was fourth after Texas and Power, who was fifth after Texas. Graham Rahal was sixth after Texas and he was sixth in the final championship standings.
Could It Be One Of Five?
There have been 21 IndyCar races held at Texas since 2002. Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing have combined to win 14 of the 21 races. Team Penske holds the record with nine victories and Ganassi is second with five victories.
Five other active IndyCar teams have won at Texas but all five of those teams have only won once at the track. A.J. Foyt Racing won the June Texas race in 1998 with Billy Boat. Andretti Autosport's only victory came in June 2004 with Tony Kanaan. Dale Coyne Racing won the first race of the DW12-era in 2012 with Justin Wilson after Graham Rahal brushed the wall with two laps to go. Ed Carpenter won with his own team in 2014. Rahal got redemption in 2016, winning that race after leading only the final lap and taking the victory by 0.0080 seconds over James Hinchcliffe, the fifth closest finish in IndyCar history.
Rossi leads the Andretti camp but Texas is a track that none of the other three drivers have found success. Marco Andretti has four top five finishes and six top ten finishes in 14 starts but he has started outside the top ten in nine of 14 starts including the last five. Hunter-Reay has two top five finishes and four top ten finishes in 12 Texas starts. He has only started in the top ten in four Texas starts, including last year when he started tenth and finished fifth. Zach Veach had a strong start to his Texas debut but his race ended after brushing the wall on the back straightway. The four Andretti drivers have led a combined 137 laps at Texas.
Schmidt Peterson Motorsports is the top team in the championship without a Texas victory. Hinchcliffe came close in 2016 and he led 188 laps in that race. He has three top five finishes in his last six Texas starts but he has never started better than sixth.
Sébastien Bourdais has only made five Texas starts but results have improved in recent years. Bourdais has finished in the top ten in the last two Texas races and he started fifth in last year's race after three consecutive years starting 18th and a 15th starting position in his first Texas race.
Since Ed Carpenter won at Texas in 2014 Ed Carpenter Racing has not had a top ten finish at Texas with Carpenter finishing 11th in 2017 and Spencer Pigot taking 11th last year. In that timespan, ECR has led only three laps at Texas. Carpenter has started 14th the last three years in this race and he started 15th the race prior to that streak of starting on the outside of row seven.
Graham Rahal heads to Texas with three consecutive top ten finishes at the track and all of those finish came after Rahal started outside the top ten. His teammate Takuma Sato has finished in the top ten in the last two Texas races and he has started in the top ten the last three years. Sato has yet to lead a lap at Texas in ten starts. The only driver with more starts to have not led at the track is Sarah Fisher, who made 11 starts in the heart of Texas.
Carlin made its Texas debut last year and Charlie Kimball finished 10th with Max Chilton finishing 12th, both drivers one lap down. Carlin announced that Chilton will not return for any of the remaining oval races this season and Conor Daly will drive the #59 Gallagher Chevrolet at Texas with the driver for the other three oval races remaining undecided at this time.
Daly has made two Texas starts. In 2016, his race ended after 42 laps when contact with Josef Newgarden ended both their races. This accident infamously broke Newgarden's clavicle. In 2017, Daly avoided the accident that took out half the field but he was caught in the final accident of the night. He was able to keep the car running and he finished seventh, one lap down. Kimball returns for his third start of the 2019 season in the #23 Chevrolet. Kimball has four top ten finishes in nine Texas starts, all happening in the last five years.
Tony Kanaan Equals His Boss
Texas Motor Speedway is now one of two home races for A.J. Foyt Racing but this year's trip to Texas is a special one for the team as Tony Kanaan, driver of the #14 ABC Supply Chevrolet will attempt to make his 369th start, tying him with A.J. Foyt for second all-time in IndyCar history.
This will be Kanaan's 26th start with the team and his 369th start comes 21 years, two months and 24 days after he made his debut at Homestead on March 15, 1998. Foyt's 369th start came in the 1992 Indianapolis 500, 34 years, nine months and seven days after Foyt's debut on August 17, 1957 at Springfield. In Foyt's final start, he finished ninth, six laps down after he started in 23rd position.
There are some parallels between the final handfuls of starts in Foyt's career to Kanaan's recent form. In Foyt's final nine starts he started 15th or worse with four of them being starts outside the top twenty. Kanaan has started outside the top ten in the last 16 races with his last top ten start being sixth at Texas last year. In the last year, Kanaan has started outside the top twenty in six races.
Before Foyt had finished ninth in his final start he had gone 12 starts since his previous top ten finish. Kanaan had gone ten starts between top ten finishes from Toronto last year to his ninth place finish in the Indianapolis 500 and in the last 16 races he has only two top ten results.
Kanaan has made 19 starts at Texas and he is tied with Hélio Castroneves for most top fives at the track with 11 and most top tens at the track with 15 but last year was the first time Kanaan had retired from a Texas race after he brushed the wall, damaging his suspension. Before last year's race Kanaan had three consecutive podium finishes at the track and four podium finishes in the previous five years with the outlying result being sixth. It was only the third time Kanaan had failed to finish on the lead lap and entering last year's race he had completed all but three laps in his career at Texas.
One thing that should give Kanaan and the Foyt team confidence heading into this weekend is Kanaan has started in the top ten in five consecutive Texas races and in six of seven in the DW12-era. Kanaan's nine podium finishes at Texas is the most all-time, one ahead of Scott Dixon.
Rookie Runaround
The 2019 IndyCar rookie class has been highly competitive and right when it appears one is about to stand head and shoulders above the rest that driver comes back to earth and another rises up. This weekend the rookies will all be thrown in the deep end with none of them having raced at Texas prior.
Through the first eight races, Felix Rosenqvist has been the top rookie three times, Colton Herta has been the top rookie twice, as has Santino Ferrucci and Marcus Ericsson's runner-up finish at the second Belle Isle race was his first time topping the rookie contingent.
Rosenqvist remains the top rookie in the championship but he is only two points clear of Ferrucci. Rosenqvist leads all rookies with two top five finishes and five top ten finishes. Ferrucci has three top ten finishes in the last four races. Herta got off the snide and finished both Belle Isle races but both were 12th place finishes. Herta is 17 points behind Rosenqvist. While Ericcson became the second rookie to score a podium finish this season, the Schmidt Peterson Motorsports driver trails his fellow Swede Rosenqvist by 24 points.
In the 12 Texas races since reunification, only five rookies have finished in the top ten at Texas and those drivers were Hideki Mutoh in 2008, Alex Lloyd in 2010, Simon Pagenaud in 2012, Mikhail Aleshin in 2014 and Gabby Chaves in 2015. The best finish was sixth by Mutoh and Pagenaud. The last rookie to finish in the top five in a Texas race was Dan Wheldon when he finished third in the 2003 autumn race, though that was Wheldon's third start at the track having started the 2002 autumn race and the June race in 2003.
Fast Facts
This will be the 12th IndyCar race to take place on June 8th and first since Hélio Castroneves won at Texas in 2013.
The other IndyCar race to take place on June 8th at Texas was in 2002 and Jeff Ward won that race with Chip Ganassi Racing.
Three drivers have picked up their first career IndyCar victory at Texas. Those drivers are Billy Boat, Mark Dismore and Jeff Ward. It was the only IndyCar victory for those three drivers.
Saturday's race will also come on the 50-year anniversary of the last time an IndyCar race had co-winners when Greg Weld and Art Pollard won at Milwaukee. Weld ran the first lap while Pollard was caught in a ten-car accident on lap one. Pollard replaced Weld on lap two and ran the final 149 laps.
There has never been a repeat winner at Texas.
Last year, Scott Dixon became the first driver with multiple Texas victories in the DW12-era.
Hélio Castroneves holds the record with four Texas victories.
Scott Dixon could match Castroneves' record of four Texas victories. Last week, Dixon tied Castroneves' for most Belle Isle victories at three.
Scott Dixon's victory last week at Belle Isle was Chip Ganassi Racing's 107 IndyCar victory, tying the team with Newman-Haas Racing for second all-time.
Only one Texas race has not reach full distance. That was the autumn 2003 race where Gil de Ferran took the victory after the Kenny Bräck-Tomas Scheckter accident ended the race five laps early.
Honda has won ten Texas races while Chevrolet has won eight Texas races.
Oldsmobile has the second-most Texas victories for engine manufactures with nine.
The average starting position of a Texas winner is 5.2333 with a median of third.
The pole-sitter has not won at Texas since Ryan Briscoe in 2010.
The Texas pole-sitter has finished in the top five only once in the DW12-era and that was Will Power finishing second in 2014.
The average finish for the pole-sitter at Texas since 2012 is 10.285.
In the last three Texas races, only one top five starter finished in the top five.
The race winner has led 100 laps or more in 11 of 30 Texas races.
The race winner has led 50 laps of fewer in 11 of 30 Texas races.
American drivers have only won two of the last 18 Texas races and both winners were born in Ohio (Sam Hornish, Jr. in 2007 and Graham Rahal in 2016).
The average number of lead changes in a Texas race is 14.1333 with a median of 14.
The average number of cautions in a Texas race is 4.4333 with a median of four. The average number of caution laps is 35.1667 with a median of 32.
Texas is the site of the most recent caution-free oval race in IndyCar. The second race of the Twin 275s in 2011 did not feature a caution and Will Power won the race with an average speed of 206.693 MPH. It is the second fastest race in IndyCar history behind only the 2002 IRL race at Fontana, which Sam Hornish, Jr. won at an average speed of 207.151 MPH.
Seven of the last 12 Texas races have had fewer than 30 caution laps after only five of the previous 18 Texas races had fewer than 30 caution laps.
Possible Milestones:
Scott Dixon needs to lead 15 laps to reach the 5,500 laps led milestone.
Will Power needs to lead 56 laps to become the 11th driver to reach the 4,000 laps led milestone.
Ryan Hunter-Reay needs to lead 45 laps to reach the 1,500 laps led milestone.
James Hinchcliffe needs to lead 44 laps to reach the 800 laps led milestone.
Graham Rahal needs to lead 16 laps to reach the 400 laps led milestone.
Predictions
If any driver is going to become the first repeat winner at Texas Motor Speedway it is going to be Scott Dixon and he will head to Le Mans with two consecutive IndyCar victories under his belt. At least two top five starters finish in the top five but at least one of the top five starters start in the back half of the field. There will be more lead changes than last year's race. One of the rookies finish in the top ten but none of the rookies finish on the lead lap. Tony Kanaan gets his best starting position and his best finishing position of the season. Sleeper: Charlie Kimball.
