Monday, November 11, 2019

Musings From the Weekend: Reverse! Reverse!

The 12 drivers that will be fighting for NASCAR championships at Homestead have been determined. Team Penske might have had a disappointing day in Phoenix but it had a day to celebrate in Australia. Toyota is upset in China. There was a disqualification in China. Off the racetrack, McLaren's IndyCar program has a testing livery, Sébastien Bourdais can see through the aeroscreen with his glasses. Meyer Shank Racing will be full-time with Jack Harvey in IndyCar. Fernando Alonso might be getting back in bed with Andretti Autosport. Kyle Busch is going to run the 24 Hours of Daytona with Lexus' GT Daytona program. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.

Reverse! Reverse!
While Formula One finally figured out the 2021 regulations, the current topic of disagreement is the proposed reverse grid qualifying races.

The proposal is instead of the three-round knockout qualifying, a race would be held on Saturday with the grid for that qualifying race set in reverse of the drivers' championship standings. The championship leader would start dead last with dead last starting on pole position. The race would be a shorter than the grand prix and the results at the end of the set distance would set the grid for the grand prix on Sunday.

It has not been met with open arms. Sebastian Vettel and Lewis Hamilton shot it down. Romain Grosjean called it an answer to a question no one was asking. Others see it as a quick fix to a bigger problem. While reverse grid races would create a scenario with top cars having to maneuver the cars at the back of the field and possibly force top cars to then start a race in the middle of the field, Carlos Sainz, Jr. noted what needs to be fixed is bringing the field closer together rather than setting up obstacles to make the field seem closer than it actually is.

The proponents to the idea say Formula One has to evolve. It has to do something new otherwise it will continue to lose fans. People need something new. They need something a little more unpredictable.

Both sides are right.

A Formula One weekend has been static for quite sometime, two practices on Friday, a practice and a qualifying session on Saturday and a race on Sunday. There is nothing wrong with keeping a consistent schedule. Everyone knows how a race weekend plays out. The one thing NASCAR fans bemoan is the inconsistency in weekend schedules. Some races have a practice and qualifying on Friday before two Saturday practices. Other weekends have two practice sessions on Friday and a qualifying on Saturday. That isn't even getting into when inspection takes place and when the grid is actually set.

Formula One should not throw the baby out with the bath water. However, what it does over those three days remains up in the air. A reverse grid qualifying race is a big change. Qualifying races are not what a grand prix has ever used but we are approaching 2020. Qualifying wasn't always three knockout rounds. Formula One made changes. It moved on from it being an all-skate session for a set time and from single-lap runs for each car. The knockout format is an extended session but it keeps it from being monotonous.

A qualifying race could be seen as the next evolution from knockout qualifying. There is still down time in knockout qualifying. There are still periods with cars in the garage waiting. There are sessions where in the final minutes of the round it is pretty much set because the teams cannot blow through tires and if a team is in the drop zone it will not make it out. A qualifying race would get rid of that.

Every car would have to go out and run a set number of laps. You would get all 20 cars on the track at the same time. No one would be in the garages waiting for clear track. It would be a race and the incentive is to finish first.

It is an intriguing idea but it is a minor fix to a bigger problem.

Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull are going to find a way to the front. It is more just delaying the inevitable. We don't know how mixed up a grid would be but we saw Max Verstappen go off track in turn one at Mexico, cut a tire, pit, come out in 19th, 30 seconds behind the car in 18th and still end up finishing sixth.

In the 2016 Belgian Grand Prix, Lewis Hamilton started 21st and was up to fifth in eight laps.

It doesn't how far you set back one of those six cars. If there was a reverse grid race, depending on the length, those cars might make it into the top five. If they started in the top five then it they will likely be fighting for the before the end of lap three. It is no different then when World Superbike reversed the top nine finishers from race one for race two. It didn't take long for Jonathan Rea to get back to the top spot.

If the answer is to make sure the qualifying race is short enough to make sure the likes of Hamilton, Vettel and Verstappen cannot end up in the top five then Formula One is going to have a qualifying race that isn't worth the time.

Keep in mind that the current qualifying format takes an hour to complete. It is perfect for television. Session starts at 2:00 p.m. local time. Round one is over in 18 minutes, after a few minutes, round two starts and lasts for 15 minutes. Another break occurs and the 12-minute final round begins.

An hour is more than half of most grand prix. A qualifying race is not going to be half the grand prix length. It could be but that does not seem likely. Imagine a 22-lap race at Spa-Francorchamps the day before the 44-lap main event. Although, this year at Spa, Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas each ran 19 laps in qualifying. Vettel and Charles Leclerc each did 17 laps. Maybe the qualifying race doesn't have to fill the entire hour but fill 45 minutes and then 15 minutes could be split on either side for preview and review.

I am sure there are teams that would push back on it and would want to watch how many miles are run each race weekend.

Formula One does need to work to get the grid closer and qualifying races do not solve that problem but I do think Formula One should be open to trying it.

There is a problem in Formula One that new ideas are quickly shot down. The entire paddock can dismiss an idea without even trying it. I don't think that is a good thing and I think Formula One should try something new every now and then.

The proposal for 2020 was to use reverse grid qualifying races at France, Belgium and Russia. That has since been killed but it would have been a soft-launch. Knockout qualifying is not broken so instead of completely eliminating it to have a slow roll out of qualifying races and use the three rounds in 2020 as a test and future development was a smart idea. I wish the teams had embraced giving it a chance.

Maybe there could be a Formula One where knockout qualifying and reverse qualifying races co-exist. I know before I said the one strength to a Formula One weekend is you know the format while NASCAR's weekends can be hard to keep up with but maybe there could a handful of races that use reverse grid qualifying races while the rest use knockout qualifying. It is the best of both worlds. We keep what works but also have something new for a few races.

It could rotate. It could have been France, Belgium and Russia in 2020. In 2021, it could have been China, Spain, Hungary, Japan and Mexico. I think five races is a good total and with the schedule ballooning up to 22 races, doing something different for five races would actually be refreshing. I think an argument could be made with 22 races that six or seven races could use reverse grid qualifying races.

Reverse grid qualifying races do not fix the bigger issues in Formula One and even with the attempt to mix up the field it seems the top teams are going to end up at the front no matter what. There are many things Formula One has to do but I think the drivers and teams should be a little open and at least give something new a fair shake.

There is nothing wrong with trying something new and it could be slowly rolled out. With new regulations coming in 2021, the Formula One teams should be encourage to try reverse grid qualifying races in at least three races with maybe increasing it to four races for 2022 and five races in 2023. Before the 2024 season, Formula One and the teams can come to the table and discuss what should be done going forward.

I would rather see Formula One experiment, trying reverse grid qualifying races at 12 different circuits over a three-year period and then make a decision after the looking at the data than not trying anything at all.

Champion From the Weekend
Scott McLaughlin clinched his second consecutive Supercars championship with a ninth place finish in the Sandown 500 with Alexandre Prémat.

The #888 Tripe Eight Race Engineering Holden of Jamie Whincup and Craig Lowndes clinched the Supercars Enduro Cup with its victory in the Sandown 500.

Winners From The Weekend
You know about Scott McLaughlin, Jamie Whincup and Craig Lowndes but did you know...

Denny Hamlin won the NASCAR Cup race from Phoenix, his sixth victory of 2019. Justin Allgaier won the Grand National Series race, his first victory of the season. Stewart Friesen won the Truck race, his second victory of the season.

The #1 Rebellion Racing Rebellion R13-Gibson of Gustavo Menezes, Bruno Senna and Norman Nato won the 4 Hours of Shanghai. The #38 Jota Sports Oreca-Gibson of Anthony Davidson, Roberto Gonzàlez and António Félix da Costa won in LMP2. The #92 Porsche of Michael Christensen and Kévin Estre won in GTE-Pro after the #51 AF Corse Ferrari of James Calado and Alessandro Pier Giudi was disqualified. The #90 TF Sport Aston Martin of Jonny Adam, Salih Yoluç and Charlie Eastwood won in GTE-Am.

Coming Up This Weekend
MotoGP ends its season in Valencia.
NASCAR ends its season in Homestead.
World Rally Championship ends its season in Australia.
Formula One has its penultimate round in São Paulo.
World Touring Car Cup has its penultimate round in Macau alongside the Macau Grand Prix.