Wednesday, June 10, 2020

Who, What, Where, Why: Formula One Part I

After having done second editions of theoretical driver, team and track pairings for IndyCar and NASCAR, and since we are still three weeks from the scheduled Formula One opener and still in a motorsports lull, I figured I would do one for Formula One.

Truth be told, Formula One is kind of boring to do. When it comes to who should race a Formula One car who has never gotten the opportunity, the answer is a lot of people. We could do a list with just 15 drivers who have never gotten a chance to race Formula One car. It has been done before. There is no slick pick. They are all pretty obvious.

I did change this one up though compared to IndyCar and NASCAR. Current Formula One is pretty imbalanced. Three teams can win and that is it and there is no point in pairing 15 drivers with three teams. It wouldn't be fun pairing a driver with an uncompetitive team. Where is the fun of giving a driver a comeback with the current iteration of Williams? That is torture more than a gift.

With that in mind I decided to use a little time travel. Instead of everyone being paired with 2020 Formula One teams, I have gone back and put drivers in a car that suits the prime of their careers. It could be an opportunity that got away or a seat that was not open that driver was most ready for it. About half are in a past car and the other half are in a 2020 car.

It is a little more creative. I do need to hold some parameters to this time travel. For starters, I cannot send a driver back to a time when he was not ready for Formula One. I am not sending a driver who started in Formula Three in 2007 back to the 2004 season to drive for Williams. I am not sending a driver whose Formula One career spanned 1991-2000 back to 1957 to team with Juan Manuel Fangio at Maserati. This is more timeline shifting. Instead of A-B-C happening for a driver, we are taking a detour and jumping to other scenarios.

Like IndyCar and NASCAR, Formula One has its own stipulation for what differentiates from a driver who was rarely in Formula One versus a driver who would be making a full-blown comeback. I set the bar as anyone with 40 starts or lower as being rare and that might sound high but a lot of drivers get at least one full season and most get two. We hardly ever see a driver make two starts in a season and never be heard from again. There aren't as many substitutions as there once was.

With this in mind, I had to expand the qualification to make it somewhat interesting.

With the parameters set and the drivers selected, we will get started with those who have never raced in the highest level of motorsports and we will start with a sensible choice.

Never:
Scott Dixon
What: McLaren MP4-23
Where: Melbourne
Why: One, we put Dixon, maybe the greatest New Zealander driver of all-time, with the team carrying the namesake of maybe the greatest New Zealander driver of all-time. Dixon was in consideration when McLaren started putting out its full-time IndyCar feelers three years ago. He stayed put at Ganassi but the sentimental reasons are there.

Two, McLaren has been rough the last five years but if we go back to 2008, it is the start of peak Dixon and it is when McLaren was on top. I still think Dixon is at his peak. I am still not sure when the descent begins but 2008 is when Dixon goes off. He won six races, still his most in a season. He stood on 12 podiums, still his most in a season. He had six pole positions, still his most in a season.

You take Dixon and put him in a world championship winning car beside Lewis Hamilton instead of Heikki Kovalainen. Hamilton started on pole position at Australia and Kovalainen started third. The McLaren combined to lead every lap but while Hamilton took victory, Kovalainen slipped back to sixth after having to stop under a safety car and then accidentally hitting the pit limiter.

This allows Dixon to get his Formula One experience, have a shot at not only a podium but a possible victory, do it in what is his de facto home race (it should be noted Dixon was born in Brisbane, Australia) and he doesn't miss any IndyCar races. The IndyCar season opener wasn't for another fortnight. It would only add to what was a historic season for Dixon and the start of something incredible.

António Félix da Costa
What: Toro Rosso STR9
Where: Budapest
Why: Da Costa lost out on his Formula One opportunity to Daniil Kvyat and six years later da Costa is not getting a Formula One shot. He has made a living in Formula E and Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters and Kvyat has held on in Formula One, mostly because Red Bull ran through drivers like a toddler though diapers.

Da Costa was third in GP3 and third in Formula Renault 3.5 in 2012 and 2013 respectively. Kvyat won the 2013 GP3 championship. Kvyat scored eight points in 2014 while teammate Jean-Éric Vergne picked up 22 points.

Budapest is not a thrilling track but da Costa had a knack for the place. He swept the 2012 GP2 races and won two more times in Formula Renault 3.5. His first career DTM points came at the track and his final DTM podium was at Budapest in 2016. I don't understand why some drivers excel at one track more than another, but you give da Costa this opportunity in the Toro Rosso over Kvyat and it was a competitive race for Toro Ross. Vergne qualified eighth and Kvyat was 11th. Vergne picked up two points in ninth but was as high as fifth in the first stint of the race, and Kvyat dropped to 14th.

Some things are meant to be and perhaps da Costa's Formula One breakout was meant to be at Hungary in 2014. We were never afforded the opportunity to see it.

Sam Bird
What: Mercedes F1 W05 Hybrid
Where: Monza
Why: Bird is one of many drivers from the 2010s GP2 that for some reason never found the right opening to Formula One. Maybe in another decade we will look back at the 2010s GP2/Formula Renault 3.5 and have ten drivers with strong careers but unfathomably never made it to Formula One.

Bird was a Mercedes' young driver at the wrong time. The team had added Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg had wedged his himself into the team and was not leaving anytime soon. Without a worthy Formula One opportunity in sight, Bird moved to sports cars and Formula E and the rest is history.

The Mercedes F1 W05 Hybrid is the first turbo-hybrid dominator. It won 16 of 19 races. It went 1-2 in 11 races. It won 18 pole positions. Why Monza? It is Monza. If you get one outing in this car it should be a historic track.

Felix Rosenqvist
What: Ferrari SF70H
Where: Monaco
Why: Rosenqvist not only never got a shot at Formula One but he didn't even get a shot in GP2, Formula Two or Formula Renault 3.5. He was stuck in Formula Three for four years and beat a lot of Formula One bound drivers in the championship. In his championship year, he was ahead of Antonio Giovinazzi, Charles Leclerc, Lance Stroll, George Russell and Alexander Albon, all drivers signed for the 2020 grid.

Why Ferrari? Because Rosenqvist looks good in red. Why Monaco? Because he made street course success his thing. He won the Macau Grand Prix twice and has another runner-up finish. He won the Pau Grand Prix. His three Indy Lights victories were on street courses and he was quite strong in Formula E, which is nothing but street courses.

Sebastian Vettel won the 2017 Monaco Grand Prix in this car but Kimi Räikkönen started on pole position. Räikkönen led the first 33 laps before behind jumped in the pit cycle. I am not saying Rosenqvist would pull it out, but I at least want to give him the opportunity.

Nick Cassidy
What: Renault R.S.20
Where: Zandvoort
Why: This is the first of the 2020 cars and Cassidy might be one of the most underappreciated drivers in single-seater racing. While Red Bull shipped drivers to Super Formula and has had mixed results, Cassidy has spent most of his career Japan. His one year in Europe saw him finish fourth in the Formula 3 European Championship at Prema Powerteam when Lance Stroll won his championship. Cassidy was ten points behind George Russell.

After his European year, he went back to Japan in 2017 and since he has won the Super GT GT500 championship and finished second the other two years and finished second and first in the Super Formula championship.

Pierre Gasly and Stoffel Vandoorne used Super Formula as the final step before Formula One. Honda has given Naoki Yamamoto a Friday practice in Toro Rosso. Cassidy has been level with Yamamoto the last few years and Cassidy is ready for more.

I think Renault could be a good place for him to get a chance and in his one Zandvoort weekend he started on pole position and had finishes of second, first and second. It would make sense for him to go somewhere he is comfortable.

Rare:
Alexander Rossi
What: Mercedes-AMG F1 W11 EQ Performance
Where: Austin
Why: I think Rossi is Formula One minded in an IndyCar world. I think he is one of the most technical and clinical drivers on the IndyCar grid today. His focus is on par with the top teams in Formula One.

Timing plays an incredible role in who we praise and who we forget. Rossi got into a great youth system with BMW only for BMW to pull out of Formula One a year later. He bounced between Caterham and Marussia, never catching the eye of Ferrari, Mercedes, Red Bull or any other big team. He got his shot with Marussia and ran respectably but an 12th in the 2016 United States Grand isn't going to turn anyone's attention and that was the best that car was going to do.

I think if you dropped Rossi into Mercedes, he would be fine. He would fit right in and not be someone the team felt they had to give extra attention. Let's give him a shot at home to see what he can do.

Lucas di Grassi
What: Toyota TF109
Where: Bahrain
Why: Di Grassi had a strong GP2 career, impressive though failing to win a championship. He fell 11 points behind Timo Glock in the 2007 championship. In 2008, di Grassi was developing the 2008 GP2 car with Renault and was not on the grid for the first three rounds. He replaced Ben Hanley at Campos Racing for the French round and proceeded to score 63 points in 14 races, 13 points behind champion Giorgio Pantano, one points behind Bruno Senna and one points ahead of Romain Grosjean. Other drivers he finished ahead of were Pastor Maldonado, Sébastien Buemi and teammate Vitaly Petrov.

He returned for one more GP2 season but finished third while Nico Hülkenberg took a convincing his championship. Di Grassi's one Formula One shot was with debutant Virgin Racing in 2010. That was it, Virgin Racing and gone. That was not much of a career.

Di Grassi has become one of the best drivers in Formula E's short history while also having a fair deal of success in Audi's LMP1 program. His Formula One days were too short.

This one gets tricky. I am putting him in the Toyota TF109. Why? Di Grassi has no ties to Toyota. He does have ties to this car. After his one hamstrung year in Formula One, di Grassi was Pirelli's test driver and the car Pirelli used was the Toyota TF109.

Why Bahrain? Toyota qualified 1-2 with Jarno Trulli on pole and Timo Glock in second. The problem was the Toyota ran light on fuel at the start of the race and went to the hard tire for the second stint of the race. Every other team went to the soft tire for the second stint and this led to the Toyota's slipping down the order. Glock led the first ten laps, but he dropped to seventh. Trulli held on for a podium position but Glock went from leading the grand prix to seventh, 42 seconds behind winner Jenson Button.

This is a chance at a re-do for Toyota but with di Grassi. He knows the car, albeit the car in 2009 was on Bridgestone tires and not Pirellis but I am sure di Grassi could figure it out. He knows what strategy to play. That is keys di Grassi returns and knows how to get Toyota that elusive victory.

André Lotterer
What: Sauber C31
Where: Suzuka
Why: Lotterer got one lap in a Formula One race for a sluggish Caterham. However, the three-time Le Mans winner, World Endurance Drivers' champion and Super Formula and Super GT champion deserves more.

I am going to give Lotterer a little bit of a challenge, but I think he would be up to it. Not many drivers on the 2012 Formula One grid know Suzuka better than Lotterer. He was coming off the Super Formula championship. He had just won his second 24 Hours of Le Mans and he was in the middle of his World Endurance Drivers' Championship season.

The Sauber C31 was a sneaky good car. Sergio Pérez had a fantastic drive at Sepang and finished second. Pérez was also third in Montreal and second in Monza. Kamui Kobayashi had some strong runs. This car was suited for Suzuka. Kobayashi qualified fourth with Pérez in sixth. I think Lotterer could qualify ahead of Kobayashi in this car. I am not sure Lotterer could get into the top three. Kobayashi was about a half-second off Jenson Button in third, but I think Lotterer could run a tenth quicker around Suzuka.

But this isn't just about qualifying pace. Kobayashi ends up finishing third. Pérez spun out but Kobayashi was third! Kobayashi benefitted from Romain Grosjean hitting Mark Webber at the start, spinning Webber and taking out Fernando Alonso and Nico Rosberg as collateral damage but the car ran at the front the entire race. Put Lotterer in a similar scenario and I think he gets the same result. Lotterer would not catch Sebastian Vettel. Vettel was gone that day, but I think Lotterer could be on the podium.

Felipe Nasr
What: Alfa Romeo C39
Where: Red Bull Ring
Why: Nasr's Formula One career was over in a flash. He had two years, one when Sauber was good and another when Sauber was terrible. Nasr was responsible for the team's only two points in 2016 and he was sent to the curb. Money talks but apparently not if it is the FIA Constructors' Championship prize funding.

Since leaving Formula One, Nasr has made a nice home for himself in IMSA's prototype class. He won a championship in year one and was runner-up in year two. The man is scratching at an IndyCar opportunity. Seeing how little time Nasr spent in Formula One and then being how long Marcus Ericsson was in the series I think Nasr is good for one more shot.

Sauber has since become Alfa Romeo and the team is competitive at times. It is not woeful every weekend. Antonio Giovinazzi has not hung himself in glory at the team. At Austria last year, both Alfa Romeos qualified in the top ten and finished in the top ten. I think Nasr could match Giovinazzi's results.

Anthony Davidson
What: Brawn GP001
Where: Silverstone
Why: Talk about the one that got away. When Honda hastily exited Formula One after 2008, it left many careers in the air. Ross Brawn stepped in, purchase what remained and turned it into one of the greatest stories in Formula One history. Brawn retained Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello as race drivers.

Davidson was not officially given the honor of test driver until the middle of the season. The sad thing for Davidson is this probably the best Formula One car he ever drove but never got to race it and what he raced were buckets of bolts compared to this thing.

He debuted with Minardi in 2002 when Alex Yoong was sluggish. He drove the 2005 Malaysian Grand Prix last minute when Takuma Sato had the flu. Davidson's one full season was with Super Aguri in 2007. Though Sato scored twice in the car, including a memorable sixth at Montreal after passing Fernando Alonso on pace, the Super Aguri SA07 was not a good car. Adding insult to injury, Davidson was in the points in that Canada race only to hit a groundhog focusing him to pit for repairs.

That was the closest Davidson ever got to the points and his Formula One career ended when Super Aguri shut down after the first four races in 2008.

Davidson just missed out on something special. Here is a chance to give him a taste of something wonderful. He is going to the 2009 British Grand Prix and he is getting the car Barrichello qualified second in and brought home to a third-place finish. He will get his chance to make-up for the groundhog disaster at home.

Comeback:
Juan Pablo Montoya
What: McLaren MCL35
Where: Interlagos
Why: Montoya is the best driver of his generation with two Indianapolis 500 victories, seven grand prix victories, three 24 Hours of Daytona victories, two NASCAR Cup victories, an IndyCar title and an IMSA prototype championship. I want to see what he can do in a modern Formula One car.

Montoya's Formula One exit feels another lifetime ago. It has been 14 years since his career ended in the gravel trap in turn two of the United States Grand Prix. Amazingly, Montoya exited that race sixth in the championship and at the end of the 2006 season his final championship position was eighth.

Championship aside, Montoya should get a better farewell with McLaren. He won the Brazilian Grand Prix twice and he should go out where he was best.

Sébastien Buemi
What: Red Bull RB16
Where: Mexico City
Why: For all the drivers Red Bull have gone through, Buemi might be the one they should bring back.

It could be said he got to Toro Rosso about three years too early. Buemi ran with Toro Rosso from 2009-11. In the following years, he established himself as one of the top sports car drivers with Toyota. In 2014, he won the World Endurance Drivers' Championship. That same year he started his Formula E career and won a championship, been vice-champion three times and holds the most victories in series history. Last year, Buemi added another World Endurance Drivers' championship and he has won the 24 Hours of Le Mans the last two years.

When Red Bull has had difficulty filling its seats at Toro Rosso, Buemi's name pops up from time to time. He is only 31 years old. However, he is done with Toro Rosso. Buemi should get a shot with the big team.

Why Mexico City? He has been there before in the FIA World Endurance Championship. He has been on a modified course for Formula E. Red Bull has been strong at Mexico City the last few years.

Jean-Éric Vergne
What: Red Bull RB16
Where: Circuit Paul Ricard
Why: Red Bull had to choose between Daniel Ricciardo or Vergne for the vacant seat at the start of the 2014 season. Red Bull picked Ricciardo and the rest is history. Ricciardo turned into a race winner but Vergne has shown Red Bull might have been just as correct selecting him.

Since leaving Formula One, Vergne has won the last two Formula E championships. He has turned into a respectable sports car driver and he is a year younger than Buemi.

For three years, Vergne raced in Formula One but never had a shot at a home race. With Circuit Paul Ricard back on the schedule, Vergne could get the chance to make a home start and in a decent car.

Giancarlo Fisichella
What: Ferrari F60
Where: Spa-Francorchamps
Why: This was the toughest of them all. I always felt Fisichella sacrificed a tremendous amount after the 2009 Belgian Grand Prix, leaving Force India after starting on pole position and finishing second to Kimi Räikkönen. With Luca Badoer struggling as Felipe Massa's replacement and Ferrari hoping to keep third in the Constructors' Championship, Ferrari brought Fisichella over, fulfilling a lifelong dream for the Italian driver.

The problem is Fisicehlla did not score a point with Ferrari. His best finish was on debut with Ferrari, ninth at home at Monza.

I realize taking Fisichella out of the Force India for the Ferrari for this race appears to be a step back. He was already on pole position and he was competitive to Räikkönen in this race. It was largely speculated Fisichella had to let Räikkönen win in order to get the Ferrari job. Nothing concrete supports that but he finished within a second of the Finn.

I would like to think if Fisichella was in this car for Belgium, where he was already on pole position in a Force India, he could at least beat Räikkönen in equal equipment.

Jenson Button
What: Renault R.S. 20
Where: Montreal
Why: I have watched Button win his fair share of sim races over the last two months and with him only two years removed from a Super GT championship I believe he still has it.

I wish I could put Button in a Williams, but Williams is horrid. It would be the 2017 Monaco Grand Prix all over again. He needs at least a competitive car and Renault had a competitive car last year at Montreal.

For all Button accomplished, his most impressive victory was probably the 2011 Canadian Grand Prix, the marathon race with hour of rain delays that Button won after Vettel slipped off the track on the final lap. Button is also based in California now, so a one-off in Montreal would be a semi-home race for him. He would only have to deal changing three time zones instead of five.

That is it and maybe we will do part two down the road. It could be next year; it could be five years for now. Let's be patient and see where things go.