Friday, February 5, 2021

2021 IndyCar Team Preview: A.J. Foyt Racing

Our third IndyCar team preview takes us to the cellar. It is A.J. Foyt Racing. Last year was the team's first season without primary sponsor ABC Supply Co. since 2004 and with this change the team had a rotation of drivers go through the #14 Chevrolet while Charlie Kimball was full-time in the #4 Chevrolet.

Tony Kanaan took the oval races in the #14 Chevrolet while Dalton Kellett made his IndyCar debut and ran majority of the season. Sébastien Bourdais took over the car for the final three races. It was another difficult season. The results kept falling short of acceptable and more times than not the Foyt cars were afterthoughts. Bourdais turned the tide a bit and the team carries some confidence into 2021 with the Frenchman leading the charge while Kellett will expand to full-time competition. 

2020 A.J. Foyt Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 4th (St. Petersburg)
Poles: 0
Best Start: 7th (St. Petersburg)
Championship Finishes: 18th (Charlie Kimball), 24th (Tony Kanaan), 26th (Dalton Kellett), 28th (Sébastien Bourdais)

2021 Drivers:

Dalton Kellett - #4 K-Line Insulators Chevrolet
Kellett made his debut at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and he rounded out the grid in 26th before climbing to 21st, finishing one lap down. He had identical races at Road America, starting 23rd and finishing one lap down in 20th in each.

After taking Iowa off, Kellett returned for the Indianapolis 500 in a third car for Foyt. He qualified on the outside of row eight, with Kanaan to his inside and five positions ahead of Kimball. Just after 200 miles, Kellett had an accident in turn three and he took 31st in the box score.

Mid-Ohio was his next race weekend and he qualified 23rd in race one before finishing a lap down in 22nd. In the second race, Kellett spun in turn one, bringing out a caution, ruining his best starting position of the season of 20th. He would finish four laps down in 21st. His season concluded in a third car for the Harvest Grand Prix weekend. He started 25th in both races and finished 24th and 25th, two laps down on each day.

Numbers to Remember:
0: Lead lap finishes in 2020.

23.625: Average starting position in 2020 with one top twenty start, 20th at Mid-Ohio II.

23: Average finishing position in 2020 with two top twenty finishes, 20th in both Road America races.

Predictions/Goals:
Kellett has only one way to go, but even the scantest of improvements would go unnoticed 

I think IndyCar is too big for him. He wasn't competitive in the Road to Indy at any level. We saw eight IndyCar races where he was the bottom each weekend. He isn't a hazard on track. He doesn't put his fellow competitors in danger, but he isn't going to be pushing for top 15 finishes let alone top ten finishes. He is going to provide a good measuring stick for Jimmie Johnson in each race. 

All he can do is get more laps and gain more experience. It isn't going to matter, but if he stays on the track and sees the checkered flag, he increases his chances of picking up a good finish during the days of high attrition. He likely isn't going to end up with a top ten, but he could go from 22nd to 15th or 20th to 13th. 

He will likely be the worst full-time driver.

What does Kellett need to do in 2021?

Not get into accidents.

Complete as many laps as possible.

Pull out at least one lead lap finish. 

Sébastien Bourdais - #14 A.J. Foyt Racing Chevrolet
Bourdais' original 2020 schedule was going to be front loaded, with him starting three of the first four races before returning for Portland and he was going to fill the middle of his season with a full season in IMSA driving a Cadillac for JDC-Miller Motorsports. 

Instead, Bourdais did not get into a car until the Harvest Grand Prix weekend and he spent that entire weekend knocking off cobwebs. He qualified 16th for the first race but went backward and finished a lap down in 21st. For the second race, he rolled off the grid from 21st, but went forward, picking up three positions and finishing 18th and on the lead lap. 

With some mileage underneath him, Bourdais qualified seventh for St. Petersburg and finished fourth. 

In IMSA, Bourdais opened the 2020 season with three consecutive third-place finishes, and he had five consecutive top five finishes. He had seven top five finishes from nine races, and he was fifth in the championship.

Numbers to Remember:
14: Top five finishes for A.J. Foyt Racing since 2010.

26: Top five finishes for Bourdais since he returned to IndyCar in 2011.

9: Consecutive seasons with a top five finish for Bourdais.

2: Consecutive seasons with a top five finish for A.J. Foyt Racing

Predictions/Goals:
Bourdais lifts every organization he has joins. He put Dragon Racing on the podium. He is responsible for the only top ten finish Lotus had in its one IndyCar season, a ninth at Barber, which should be celebrated more than it is. He won races and led the championship with Dale Coyne Racing.

Foyt is a chore, but Bourdais alone makes the team a top ten contender and I think he will get close. There are limits. Even for all the good days Bourdais had at Coyne, he couldn't paper over all the shortcomings of a small team. Foyt presents the same situation.

I think Bourdais can finish in the top ten in at least seven races. He will position himself to turn a seventh starting position into a fourth or fifth. He may even sneak into the top five in qualifying and be fighting for podium results. Winning will remain difficult. Foyt will have to be perfect in all areas, from setup to pit stops. We have seen small teams fighting for victories only for slow pit stops to take them out of it, see Meyer Shank Racing in the 2019 Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Bourdais cannot win races if he is losing two or three seconds per pit stops to the likes of Penske and Ganassi. 

Foyt has not had a top ten championship finisher since 2002. Bourdais will come close to that. The road and street course results will be better than his oval results. He should ravage his teammate, qualifying and finishing ahead of Kellett at every race. 

What does Bourdais need to do in 2021?

He needs to make the second round of qualifying at least 70% of the time and he needs to make the Fast Six at least three or four times. 

He needs to be respectable on ovals, at least finishing in the top half of the field in all of them.

Average a finish between 11.0 and 11.9.

The 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season will begin on April 18 at Barber Motorsports Park. NBC will have coverage of the season opener.