Monday, May 24, 2021

Musings From the Weekend: I Think We're Going to be Ok

Scott Dixon took his fourth Indianapolis 500 pole position. Will Power made it by the skin of his teeth in another hairy bumping battle. Jonathan Rea picked up his 100th World Superbike victory in the first race of the season and Rea won the second race as well. Charles Leclerc's hometown dream ended before the Monaco Grand Prix even started. There is a new championship leader in Formula One. People are for some reasons upset that Monaco was not more exciting. Where have they been for the last 90 years? NASCAR made its first trip to Austin, and it rained... a lot. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

I Think We're Going to Be Ok
Indianapolis 500 qualifying felt familiar. 

Scott Dixon, Tony Kanaan, Ed Carpenter, Hélio Castroneves, and Ryan Hunter-Reay all made the Fast Nine. Marco Andretti made his 16th Indianapolis 500. Graham Rahal made his 14th. Takuma Sato will look to win his third Indianapolis 500 in his 12th start. Juan Pablo Montoya made his Indianapolis 500 return, as did four-time champion Sébastien Bourdais.  

Nine past Indianapolis 500 winners made this year's race, the most since the record-setting ten qualified for the 1992 race. Most of these drivers have been around IndyCar for the last two decades. Dixon has been the driver of this generation, winning his first race at 20 years old and picking up 50 more victories and six championships in the 20 years since. Kanaan has long been the fan favorite. Castroneves has spent majority of his career on three Indianapolis 500 victories, on the doorstep of greatness. Montoya didn't spend his career IndyCar, but his two stints have been memorable, and the Colombian's presence made those five full seasons glorious.

Hunter-Reay, Sato and Bourdais are all over 40 years old. Will Power just turned 40. IndyCar is going through a change, and it is not too dissimilar to the 1992 race. 

Twenty-nine years ago, A.J. Foyt, Rick Mears, Tom Sneva and Gordon Johncock all made their final Indianapolis 500 starts that cold day. Five of other six past winners in that race would make two more Indianapolis 500 starts or fewer. Mario Andretti ran 1993 and 1994. Danny Sullivan ran 1993, took a sabbatical in 1994 and returned in 1995. Bobby Rahal missed 1993 and then finished third the following two years. Al Unser made his final start in 1993 and he failed to qualify in 1994. Emerson Fittipaldi nearly won in 1994 and then infamously failed to qualify in 1995. 

The only past winner to have a significant career at Indianapolis after 1992 was Arie Luyendyk, who made nine more starts and that is because of the side Luyendyk landed on during The Split. The Dutchman ended up in the Indy Racing League instead of staying in CART. 

The Split factored into this generational change and identity crisis. Rahal raced until the 1998 season and could have made another three attempts at Indianapolis if it wasn't for The Split. Al Unser, Jr. won the 1992 race and won again in 1994, but he would not return until 2000, just after the prime of his career while also battling addiction. Michael Andretti lost prime years at Indianapolis, not returning until 2001. 

Add to it in the coming years Alex Zanardi, Greg Moore, Jimmy Vasser, Gil de Ferran, Bryan Herta, Christian Fittipaldi, Robby Gordon, Mark Blundell and Adrián Fernández would all rise to prominence in CART and the likes of Paul Tracy and Scott Pruett were just entering their primes. 

The early 1990s is viewed as a period of lost identity for IndyCar as so many generational talents left the series. No one really filled that void immediately. Again, The Split really didn't help, as American open-wheel racing dealt with its own identity crisis, but the past will not necessarily be repeated in the present and 2021 is set up a lot differently, though the next big generational change is ahead of us. 

One, there are a lot more established, younger drivers now than back in 1992. This year alone has seen Álex Palou, Colton Herta, Patricio O'Ward and Rinus VeeKay win a race. The latter three drivers are the youngest three drivers on the grid. Herta and VeeKay are on the front row for this year's Indianapolis 500. Palou is starting seventh. O'Ward qualified 12th. Pietro Fittipaldi qualified 13th for his first Indianapolis 500 and he will only turn 25 years old next month.

IndyCar looked a lot different in 1992. Thirty-six-year-old Stefan Johansson was Rookie of the Year that season and he only ran nine of 16 races and Johansson didn't even run Indianapolis that year. Robby Gordon and Jimmy Vasser were also rookies that year. Gordon started only seven races and Vasser ran majority of the races with the small Hayhoe-Cole Racing. The rookie classes before 1992 were less than impressive as well. Of the rookies of the year from 1986 to 1991, only Eddie Cheever would go on to win an IndyCar race and Cheever would also win the 1998 Indianapolis 500. 

Two, forget the youngest drivers, IndyCar has a large base of experienced drivers who are ten years away from this conversation. Josef Newgarden has two championships and doesn't turn 30 years old until this December. Graham Rahal is only 32 years old, and he is already making his 14th Indianapolis 500 start. Though Marco Andretti has cutback to part-time this year, he is making his 16th Indianapolis 500 start and he is only 34 years old. 

Alexander Rossi turns 30 in September, and he is one of the top drivers in the series. Add Felix Rosenqvist and Conor Daly to that list of drivers who turns 30 later this year. Marcus Ericsson is 30 years old. Scott McLaughlin is only 27 years old, and his rookie season has been impressive. McLaughlin is the top Team Penske starter for this year's race! Jack Harvey just turned 28. I guess James Hinchcliffe is considered the elder statesman of this middle-aged group at 34 years old. 

Between these two lists, 15 drivers have been named and none of them are even 35 years old. They could all be around for another ten years. That's nearly half of the Indianapolis 500 grid this year. 

Three, while we will see some of our favorites retire soon, we still have a few good years left. I don't know how long Tony Kanaan and Hélio Castroneves will continue as part-timers, but after this year's qualifying effort, I bet both have two or three years left. Both might try and race to 50. We haven't had someone that old start the Indianapolis 500 in a while. It could become a goal that motivates both to keep at it. 

Scott Dixon is going remain full-time for at least another five years. Same as Will Power. Ryan Hunter-Reay, Takuma Sato and Sébastien Bourdais have a few more years left. Ed Carpenter could be an Indianapolis one-off for another decade. Simon Pagenaud is only 37 years old. He arguably could be the eldest statesman of the middle-aged group, but Pagenaud has plenty of years left.

This transitional change will not be as sudden as the 1990s and IndyCar is much deeper than it was 30 years ago. 

If I wanted to be facetious, I would say IndyCar's fall from national prominence has been so great that it doesn't matter because none of these drivers are stars and IndyCar isn't going to lose that many fans because Kanaan and Castroneves are retiring, but in all seriousness, IndyCar has talent lined up for the next two decades. 

Herta, O'Ward and VeeKay could be around until 2041. There will be some staying power for years to come and we do not know who will be joining the series next. In 2010, Newgarden and Rossi were American Formula One hopefuls racing in year. A decade later, they are two of IndyCar's best drivers. We don't know who is coming next and there will be plenty of Americans following in the footsteps of Newgarden and Rossi. 

IndyCar will soon see change, but it is more ready than it has ever been for the future. 

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Scott Dixon and Jonathan Rea, but did you know...

Max Verstappen won the Monaco Grand Prix and in doing so Verstappen takes the World Drivers' Championship lead for the first time in his career and Red Bull has taken the World Constructors' Championship lead for the first time since it won its fourth consecutive title in 2013.

Guanyu Zhou, Dan Ticktum and Théo Pourchaire split the Formula Two races from Monaco. 

Chase Elliott won the rain-shortened NASCAR Cup race from Austin. Kyle Busch won the Grand National Series race, his 98th victory in the series. Todd Gilliland won the Truck race, his first victory since October 2019. 

Scott Redding won the World Superbike race from Aragón. Steven Odendaal swept the World Supersport races, his first career victories in the series.

Elfyn Evans won Rally de Portugal.

Coming Up This Weekend
105th Indianapolis 500
Coca-Cola 600
MotoGP's Italian Grand Prix
World Superbike will head to Estoril. 
Circuit Paul Ricard will host a 1000-kilometer endurance race for GT World Challenge Europe.
Supercars visit Winton Motor Raceway.