Monday, August 16, 2021

Musings From the Weekend: Big For IndyCar's Britches

Will Power did not hit any teammates and that got him a victory on the IMS road course. It was a strong weekend for Team Penske in its own backyard. Alexander Albon visited central Indiana. Robin Miller was back at the racetrack. Bob Jenkins received a heartfelt tribute after passing away earlier in the week. The rain showed up just in time for the MotoGP race and made a thrilling race even more astonishing. Maverick Viñales' time with Yamaha may be ending months earlier than expected, and Viñales has already announced he will join Aprilia in 2022. Formula E closed another chapter on its history, and a few names will not be returning for 2022. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking. 

Big For IndyCar's Britches
IndyCar had 27 entries for Nashville last weekend. IndyCar followed that up with 28 entries for the IMS road course race this past weekend. Believe it or not, IndyCar still has more entries on the horizon.

For a series that has long battled with fluctuating grid numbers and been on the low side for most of the last decade, IndyCar in 2021 is somehow in a growth spurt that cannot be easily explained after looking at the numbers. 

Considering that television ratings are modestly up, but the overall size of the pie is dwarfed in comparison to other sports properties in the United States, IndyCar's recent grid success can only be viewed as surprising.

For years, teams were scrapping through and had just enough to get over 20 entries. It wasn't long ago Scott Dixon was without a sponsor, Andretti Autosport was struggling to stay at four entries and even Team Penske downsized. Many teams dropped out at the start of the DW12-era, either because they could not fund a car anymore or to race elsewhere. The number of teams didn't even fill two hands. There was no room for surprises, no chance at an extra seat popping up for a driver even if he or she had a sponsor and there was a sense IndyCar was hanging on and one misfortunate accident could take a chunk out of the grid, leaving it in the depressing shallow depths of the final Indy Racing League years.

The Indianapolis 500 was still drawing 33 entries with teams running one or in some cases multiple one-off entries, and there was still the one or two Indianapolis-only team, but the rest of the season could not warrant any other interest. 

The 2017 season saw 11 of 17 races with only 21 entries on the grid. Another five races had 22 entries and then the Indianapolis 500 was at full capacity with a certain Spanish world champion spending a holiday in the American Midwest instead of the Mediterranean coast. Things were on the low end, but good. While not at its fullest levels, the IndyCar grid was rich with talent. 

Four years later, and with a global pandemic taking up nearly half that time, somehow IndyCar has expanded to a size last seen when tobacco sponsorship was on half the cars on the field. When the pandemic started, everyone was concerned that teams would start falling off the grid because companies would be pulling back their multi-million dollar sponsorships. We braced for contraction and a year later we in the middle of unexpected expansion, expansion that will continue through the final race of this year. 

The year opened with 24 cars at Barber Motorsports Park, an unsurprising total as Team Penske recommitted to four full-time entries, Ganassi expanded back to four full-time entries and the likes of Carlin and Meyer Shank Racing have become full-time entries in the last four years. What has been rather odd is the number of part-time entries to come up this season. 

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing has entered its #45 Honda for six of 12 races, an entry usually reserved for the Indianapolis 500 each May and never making any appearances at any other time. With Rick Ware Racing partnering with Dale Coyne Racing, that organization has rolled out a third car at a few events. Meyer Shank Racing introduced a part-time entry this year with plans to run a half-dozen races. On top of those three examples, Top Gun Racing has emerged and though it failed to qualify for the Indianapolis 500 it kept the lights on and made its IndyCar debut this past weekend in the second IMS road course race. 

And just when you thought all of that was spectacular for IndyCar, news came out last week Juncos Racing, which last participated in the 2019 Indianapolis 500 when it famously bumped McLaren and Fernando Alonso out of the race, would be returning for the final three races of 2021 with Williams F1 shareholder Brad Hollinger becoming a team partner. Juncos Hollinger Racing plans on being full-time in 2022.

Don't forget Paretta Autosport, which contested the Indianapolis 500 this year with Simona de Silvestro, also has hopes of returning for a few races at the end of the season and greater participation in the future.

Four years ago, IndyCar was a nose above 20 entries. Now, it is creeping up on 30 entries for races that are not the Indianapolis 500. That could be the norm at every race. Meyer Shank Racing plans on expanding to two full-time entries in 2022. Arrow McLaren SP has shifted its ownership structure with McLaren now in control of 75% of the team and it hopes to become a three-car team soon. RLLR is seriously looking at three full-time entries. 

Twenty-seven cars could be at every race next year. Such great news brings an underlying wave of concern. 

Twenty-seven entries? In IndyCar? How did we get to this? 

It feels too good to be true, especially with it all happening this quickly. We were used to IndyCar teams being buttoned up and having enough for a two-car team through the season, but now teams are finding the change to field an extra entry at the forgotten races of the IndyCar schedule. Everyone understands entering an extra car for Indianapolis, but Mid-Ohio? Gateway? Portland? Those races do not have the prestige and the profile for an extra entry and yet more entries are going to show up. 

I think back to the end of the Dallara IR05/IR07 chassis. The 2011 season had many one-off entries. Teams had a chassis and engine package that would soon be obsolete, and they were going to get their money's worth for the equipment they had left hanging around. If a driver had the money to run three races, he or she got on the grid. It was a final hooray. 

We know IndyCar will be introducing a new chassis and engine formula shortly, hopes are by 2023, and this current period reminds me of 2011. Though the current equipment has much more time to go, we are at a point where enough of everything exists that an extra car is not as much of a strain as it once was. For most of the DW12-era, we have talked about part shortages and a lack of everything, from chassis to engines to manpower to run the cars. It took until the tenth season of these regulations to find comfort. 

While thinking back to ten years ago and the end of the previous regulations, I also remember what followed when the new era was ushered in. There were a few good years with the DW12 chassis early on. We had 25-26 cars at every race, but teams were struggling to keep the doors open. In a blink, five teams shut down. Dreyer & Reinbold Racing scaled back to an Indianapolis 500-only entrant. Dragon Racing moved to Formula E. IndyCar went from two-dozen entries with comfort to just above 20 with fears it would get worse. 

For some reason, 20 is not viewed as a healthy number in IndyCar circles. Two-dozen is the unofficial benchmark for series health. If IndyCar is there, we are happy. If it is slightly below, we are concerned. Slightly above and we are joyous.

With 27 cars in the last two races and potentially more ready to enter the series, the IndyCar congregation is beyond joyous. And it is good to be happy, but after too many years watching IndyCar slog through financial difficulty, I cannot rest easy. I remember what the fall from grace felt like. The present is nice, but it would be foolish believing it will stay this way. I am not saying IndyCar will crater and in four years we will be back to 21 cars with three teams having closed shop since and another hanging by a thread, but all good things come to an end. 

An end does not mean disaster. Leveling out is natural. There is a point where IndyCar can no longer handle it. We can get 34 or 35 cars entered for the Indianapolis 500, but I don't expect that number of cars full-time. At some point, we will reach a tipping point. That doesn't mean the series will be in trouble. Not every team will be able to field three cars. Some will settle with two cars and just an Indianapolis one-off.

There can be too much of a good thing. You need balance, not too high and not too low. If IndyCar settles around 24 or 25 entries in the next year or two when the new chassis and engine is rolled out and the surprise part-time entries could become less frequent, but that should not sound the alarms. I think that would be a great place for IndyCar to be.

While going through this rapid expansion, we need to remember what is good for IndyCar and not lose sight of overall health. There is a level lower than what IndyCar is currently experiencing that is acceptable for the series. When this slows down or contracts a little, there should not be any panic. Level is good.

It is nice IndyCar is going through this, and it is great to see more cars on track and more drivers getting opportunities, but let's remember humble because that will be better for our long-term future. 

Champion From the Weekend
Nyck de Vries won the Formula E drivers' championship with an eighth-place finish in the final race at Berlin.

Mercedes-EQ Formula E Team won the Formula E teams' championship. 

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Will Power, but did you know...

Brad Binder won MotoGP's Austrian Grand Prix, his second career victory. Raúl Fernández won the Moto2 race, his fourth victory of the season. Sergio García won the Moto3 race by 0.027 seconds over Deniz Öncü, his third victory of the season. 

A.J. Allmendinger won the NASCAR Cup race from Indianapolis, Allmendinger's first Cup victory in 161 starts. Austin Cindric won the Grand National Series race. 

Lucas di Grassi and Norman Nato split the Formula E races from Berlin. It was di Grassi's 12th victory, second all-time, and Nato's first career victory.

Kyle Larson won the 60th Knoxville Nationals.

Thierry Neuville won Ypres Rally Belgium, his first victory of the season. 

Coming Up This Weekend
The 24 Hours of Le Mans! Finally!
IndyCar's final oval race at Gateway.
NASCAR returns to ovals and Michigan in particular. 
Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters will be at the Nürburgring.
World Superbike makes its debut at Navarra.
Super GT is back in action at Suzuka.
World Touring Car Cup will be in Hungary.