Friday, January 28, 2022

2022 IndyCar Team Preview: Meyer Shank Racing

We are into the second half of 2022 IndyCar team previews, and we move to Meyer Shank Racing. In its second season with at least one full-time entry, MSR expanded to two cars on a part-time basis in 2021. It paid off. The team got its first victory, and it was the biggest race in IndyCar, the Indianapolis 500. A historic victory already, it was taken to a higher level because it was Hélio Castroneves' fourth Indianapolis 500 victory in Castroneves' first race with the team. 

Meyer Shank Racing will run two cars full-time this year. Castroneves will be one of the drivers, and the team is making a change. Jack Harvey is gone and entering is Simon Pagenaud, the past champion and past Indianapolis 500 winner reunites with his past Team Penske teammate.

2021 Meyer Shank Racing Review
Wins: 1 (Indianapolis 500)
Poles: 0
Best Start: 2nd (St. Petersburg)
Championship Finish: 13th (Jack Harvey), 22nd (Hélio Castroneves)

Simon Pagenaud - #60 AutoNation/SiriusXM Honda
The 2021 season started with a ho-hum day at Barber Motorsports Park for Pagenaud. He qualified 15th and spent most of the race outside the top ten, eventually finishing 12th. He bounced back at St. Petersburg with a third-place finish after starting fourth. The results continued with four more consecutive top ten finishes from the Texas doubleheader through the two May Indianapolis races. He had a charge from 26th to third in the Indianapolis 500. 

However, results went downward once the season entered the summer. He was eighth in the second Belle Isle race, and it was his only top ten finish in a six-race period. He did not start in the top five for nine consecutive races. He took a strategy gamble in the August IMS road course race, and he led seven laps because of it, but it cost him late and dropped him to 16th. 

Things were better at Gateway, qualifying fourth and finishing eighth. He was on an impressive drive from 23rd on the grid at Portland, but a spin when trying to pass Will Power cost him a top ten result. He finished the season with finishes of eighth and fifth, but it ended up being his second winless season in four years and third in seven seasons with Team Penske.

Numbers to Remember:
6: Meyer Shank Racing will be Pagenaud's sixth IndyCar team.

11: Victories with Team Penske from 2015-2021.

3: Drivers had more victories than Pagenaud from 2015-2021 (Josef Newgarden 20, Scott Dixon 16, Will Power 16).

12: laps led in 2021, Pagenaud's fewest in a full season in his IndyCar career.

What does a championship season look like for him?
Pagenaud starts with top five finishes in the first two races of the season in St. Petersburg and Texas. He goes a step further and gets on the podium in Long Beach before a top ten finishes at Barber Motorsports Park. 

Riding that wave of momentum, he wins the Grand Prix of Indianapolis for a fourth time in his career. Then he finishes in the top five of the Indianapolis 500 after qualifying in the top five. Back on the streets, he wins again in Belle Isle and heads into summer with another top ten finish at Road America. 

Over the Independence Day weekend, Pagenaud wins at Mid-Ohio for the Ohio-based Meyer Shank Racing. He returns to Toronto and wins there, his second consecutive victory at the track before scoring one top five finish and one top ten finish at the Iowa doubleheader. 

He is in the top ten again for the second IMS road course race and picks up another top ten finish on the streets of Nashville. The rest of the field might be closing in, but then he wins at Gateway to strengthen his grip on the championship. He is in the top five at Portland and an eighth-place finish is more than enough to secure the championship at Laguna Seca.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
As good as Pagenaud has been in recent seasons, the problem is he has only been good. He has been outside the top five in the championship in three of the last four seasons and led fewer than 100 laps in each of those three seasons. He still has a remarkable finishing percentage, but his average finish has been worse than tenth the last two years after being below 9.0 in seven of the previous eight years. 

There is nothing wrong with finishing sixth and seventh consistently, and Pagenaud can keep that up. It might not be at the same rate he had with Penske and there will likely be fewer days with him fighting for a podium spot, but good results are still possible with Meyer Shank Racing. 

Last year's Indianapolis 500 victory aside, MSR has come close to a few victories on road and street courses. Pagenaud is more than capable of turning a good qualifying day into a victory. He turned Schmidt Peterson Hamilton Motorsports into a contender when he returned to IndyCar full-time in 2012. IndyCar has tightened up since then, but Pagenaud can still make it up and not only break into the championship top ten but challenge for a top five spot. 

Hélio Castroneves - #06 AutoNation/SiriusXM Honda
Shifting from Team Penske to Meyer Shank Racing, and stepping away from full-time sports car competition, Castroneves was set for a half-dozen IndyCar starts in 2021 with his new team. The first start was to come at the Indianapolis 500.

For the first time entering the Indianapolis 500 with a team other than Team Penske, Castroneves looked more comfortable than ever. He made the Fast Nine and wound up eighth on the grid. In the race, Castroneves spent the entire race in the top ten. He worked his way into the top five. Castroneves remained in the lead pack and in the closing laps, it was clear Castroneves would be one of the contenders. It became Castroneves vs. Álex Palou after the final round of pit stops. 

With two laps to go, Castroneves took the lead into turn one. He held off the counterattack from Palou, using traffic to his advantage, and Castroneves became the fourth driver to win four Indianapolis 500s. 

After his brush with history, Castroneves was off until August at Nashville. He was ninth mostly through survival. He ended the year with a few rough results, finishing outside the top twenty in the August IMS road course race, Portland and Laguna Seca. He was a surprise third in qualifying at Long Beach but wound up 20th after being caught out after multiple cautions before making a pit stop.

Numbers to Remember:
13: IndyCar starts since his last full season in 2017.

8: Finishes of 20th or worse in those 13 starts.

16: Top ten finishes in 17 starts during his final full season in 2017.

What does a championship season look like for him?
Back as a full-time driver, Castroneves starts with a top five in St. Petersburg and then he wins at Texas, and it is a dominant victory with over 2/3rds of the laps led. He gets a top ten in the next two races at Long Beach and Barber.

In Indianapolis, he starts the month of May with a podium result in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. In the Indianapolis 500, Castroneves qualifies on the front row, leads over 80 laps, and he picks up his fifth Indianapolis 500 victory, handing Castroneves a solid championship lead. He has an off day at Belle Isle, but he will be back in the top ten at Road America. 

Mid-Ohio sees Castroneves back in the top five before another top ten result in Toronto. He wins the first Iowa race and finishes third in the other. Nashville doesn't go great, but he bounces back with a podium at Gateway. He closes the season with a pair of top five finishes at Portland and Laguna Seca.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
Castroneves has been one of IndyCar's best drivers over the 21st century, but since he stepped back from full-time competition, his results have been suspect. He might have won the Indianapolis 500 last year, but in the few road and street course races he has done he has not been a factor over the last few seasons.
 
Though he was a regular top five championship finisher at Penske, I am not sure Castroneves can accomplish that at MSR. His road and street course pace was lacking last year. There were a few bright moments, and he will be running the car on a regular basis and not as a part-timer, but IndyCar has gotten tougher since he was last time full-time, and Castroneves will turn 47 years old this season.

This might be a tougher season than many think it will be for Castroneves. Championship top ten would be an incredible accomplishment. It is more likely Castroneves will be fighting between 11th and 15th in the championship, but he could even finish outside the top fifteen. MSR has done a phenomenal job in IndyCar, but a two-car program is a big step. The team made questionable strategy choices last year with Jack Harvey. If Castroneves is off, the team could take bigger risks that do not pay off.

There will be one or two good road/street course events, but those races will be Castroneves' greatest struggle. Oval races should be where he gets his best results, but with only five oval events, they can only do so much for his championship standing. 

The 2022 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday February 27 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC's coverage will begin at noon ET.