Monday, August 22, 2022

Musings From the Weekend: Anthony Davidson May Have Convinced Me to Change My Mind

Josef Newgarden waited out a rain delay to get his fifth victory of the IndyCar season. Rain also delayed the start of NASCAR race at Watkins Glen where a few notable names made their Cup debuts. There was some teammate-on-teammate violence in New York. The Red Bull Ring debuted its new chicane at the MotoGP weekend and it was a suitable. MotoGP also announced it will run sprint races at every round next year because series are desperate and don't know what to do. A few winless drought were snapped in Japan. Supercars did not run an endurance race at Sandown and many wish they were. There was a rally in Belgium. I listened to a podcast. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

Anthony Davidson May Have Convinced Me to Change My Mind
There are plenty of good podcasts out there for motorsports coverage, and Motor Sport Magazine produces insightful episodes on a regular basis. 

Recently, Motor Sport did a series called "My Big Break" where drivers and other key motorsports figures spoke about key moments in their careers that led to where they are today. Last month, the most recent series ended with Anthony Davidson, a world champion in endurance racing, who is also remembered for his time in Formula One, most notably with Super Aguri. 

During the show, Davidson spoke about his drives outside the points in Formula One. Davidson mostly drove when only the top eight drivers received points and he raced on 22-car grids. Super Aguri was not a top team, but it had better days in 2007 and its competitiveness was highlighted with Takuma Sato finishing eighth at Barcelona and famously in sixth at Montreal after a late pass on Fernando Alonso in a McLaren.

Sadly, Davidson never scored points in his Formula One career, but he had some good drives that are not recognized. For starters, in that Montreal race where Sato was sixth, Davidson hit a groundhog and finished 11th. Davidson was in a points position for a good portion of the race before that incident. If he didn't hit that groundhog, that could have been his day. Instead, it was an 11th-place finish, and would end up being one of three in a four-race period for the Brit.

During the podcast, Davidson stated he believes points should be awarded for every position in Formula One because those battles outside the top ten are just as intense as what we see at the front. He also pointed out the current points format inflate results because one good day can completely cancel out the rest of the season. 

Davidson specifically cited the 2019 Formula One season where Robert Kubica was classified in tenth in the German Grand Prix and got a point. Kubica's Williams teammate George Russell was 11th in that race and scored no points that season. The record book shows Kubica 19th in the championship while Russell is in 20th, dead last, with no points. 

But that doesn't necessarily tell an accurate story of the 2019 season. Kubica was tenth in Germany, but Russell finished ahead of Kubica in 17 of 21 races. However, Kubica's one day in Germany erases all that. That is how the point system works, but I think Davidson has a point. 

Davidson continued to say the point system is derived from a time that put a premium on finishing the race. In the 1950s and 1960s, it was an accomplishment to finish a grand prix. It was a tortoise versus a hare time period. Plenty of fast cars couldn't last an entire race, but there were slower and more reliable cars that could. Those reliable cars were more likely to get points because they made it to the finish. 

In contemporary Formula One, everyone is finishing races. Nineteen cars finished the Hungarian Grand Prix, the most recent race, and the only car that did not finish was Valtteri Bottas, who completed 65 of 70 laps before his fuel system crapped out. Bottas was still classified. 

There were 19 classified cars at Bahrain, 17 at Australia, 18 at Imola, 17 at Miami, 18 at Barcelona, 17 at Monaco, 16 at Azerbaijan and Montreal, 17 at Austria and 16 at France. Through 13 races, the only ones with more than five cars unclassified were Saudi Arabia, where two cars didn't start, and Silverstone, where three cars were knocked out in an opening lap accident. 

Just getting to the finish is no longer the same accomplishment it once was. A grand prix races different than it did 20 years ago let alone 60 years ago. 

I have always been a proponent of fewer finishing positions getting points, specifically the 9-6-4-3-2-1 system Formula One used from 1961 through 1991. My argument is you make finishing at the front more valuable and devalue finishing eighth, ninth and tenth. Raise the bar and raise the performance, encourage teams to try more things out of the box to make it into the top six. 

However, Formula One isn't that simple and there aren't that many cars that can make the top six. Again, this isn't 1989 where Stefan Johansson can go from failing to pre-qualify in an Onyx to finishing third in that same Onyx in the following race at Portugal. That is not how Formula One in 2022 works. We get a few surprise results here and there, but Williams isn't going to somehow just end up in the top six. Haas isn't going to pull out a podium result. The grid is more haves and have nots than arguably ever before. With that being the case, you have more teams fighting for nothing and in some cases teams that are racing for nothing 95% of the time. 

Why not make that nothing worth something? Especially if it gives a more accurate picture in the championship. 

IndyCar gives out points to every position. IndyCar's championship has gone to the wire for 15 consecutive seasons. The top drivers are still rightful rewarded and we have a more accurate representation of the entire field at the bottom as well. 

Let's take IndyCar as the base and its 50 points to a race winner for Formula One. For the sake of Formula One, we will keep the proportions the same for the podium. Second place will remain 72% of a victory and third will remain 60% of a victory, so 36 points and 30 points respectively. From there, the points decrease by two all the way to 15th, which gets six points. Then it decreases by a points from 16th to one points for 20th.

However, points are only awarded if a driver is classified, as it is now. To earn points, a driver would still need to complete 90% of a race.

In full: 50-36-30-28-26-24-22-20-18-16-14-12-10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1.

That is the system. No bonus point for fastest lap, no sprint qualifying nonsense. Let's just take the results and go.

What would the 2022 championship look like under such a system?

Max Verstappen - 490
Lewis Hamilton - 344
Sergio Pérez - 343
George Russell - 340
Charles Leclerc - 302
Carlos Sainz, Jr. - 300
Lando Norris - 242
Esteban Ocon - 234
Fernando Alonso - 202
Valtteri Bottas - 193
Lance Stroll - 155
Daniel Ricciardo - 153
Sebastian Vettel - 142
Pierre Gasly - 138
Kevin Magnussen - 124
Alexander Albon - 117
Mick Schumacher - 108
Yuki Tsunoda - 105
Guanyu Zhou - 98
Nicholas Latifi - 60
Nico Hülkenberg - 16

How about that? 

No surprise Verstappen would be on top, but Hamilton's consistency would have him second in the championship, not sixth. Meanwhile, Leclerc would drop to fifth and Sainz, Jr. would drop to sixth, further showing how Ferrari's inconsistency is setting back the team.

Outside of the top, most of the middle looks the same. Alonso and Bottas would flip but Stroll would jump from 18th to 11th! The Canadian has been classified in every race and he has finished 11th or 12th in four races with two more finishes of 13th. Those are all double-digit point totals and those add up. 

Meanwhile, Haas' retirements would knock it back a peg or so. Magnussen would drop to 15th while Schumacher would drop to 17th. 

But the other key name to point out is Albon. Albon has earned deserved praise for his results in the Williams the year. He has finished in the top ten twice this year alone, but he has finished between 11th and 13th six more times. Under this system, those results would get points and it would pick him up three positions in the championship. That feels more accurate of Albon's season than 19th and only three points clear of teammate Latifi. 

With how much that has changed in Formula One recent years, I think points being awarded to the entire field is closer to being introduced than ever before and that might not be a bad thing. It might just give us a better picture of how a season is unfolding. Anthony Davidson is on to something and I could be wrong. 

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Josef Newgarden, but did you know...

Francesco Bagnaia won MotoGP's Austrian Grand Prix, his third consecutive victory and fifth of the season. Ai Ogura won the Moto2 race, his second victory of the season. Ayuma Sasaki won the Moto3 race, his second victory of the season. Eric Granado swept the MotoE races and Granado has five victories on the season. 

Kyle Larson swept the NASCAR races from Watkins Glen.

Naoki Yamamoto and Yuhi Sekiguchi split the Super Formula races from Motegi. It was Yamamoto's first Super Formula victory since December 5, 2020 at Suzuka and Sekiguchi's first Super Formula victory since May 19, 2019 at Autopolis.

Will Davison (race one) and Shane Van Gisbergen (race two and race three) split the Supercars races from Sandown.

Matthew Brabham won the Indy Lights race at Gateway, his second victory of the season. Salvador de Alba won the Indy Pro 2000 race, his second victory of the season.

The #33 Winward Racing Mercedes-AMG of Russell Ward and Philip Ellis swept the GT World Challenge America races from Road America. The #18 RS1 Porsche of Stevan McAleer and Eric Filgueiras and the #15 BSPort Racing Aston Martin of  Bryan Putt and Kenton Koch split the GT4 America races. Andy Pilgrim and George Kurtz split the GT America races.

Ott Tänak won Rally Ypres Belgium, his second consecutive victory and third victory of the season.

Coming Up This Weekend
Formula One is back from break in Belgium. 
NASCAR Cup Series concludes its regular season at Daytona. 
IMSA has its penultimate round of the season, a GT-only day at Virginia International Raceway. 
Super GT will be at Suzuka. 
European Le Mans Series runs its fourth round of the season at Barcelona. 
Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters has a round on the Nürburgring's sprint configuration.