Tuesday, October 4, 2022

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Ed Carpenter Racing's 2022 Season

Rounding out the first half of the 2022 IndyCar Wrap-Ups is Ed Carpenter Racing. After a bipolar 2021 season that saw the team contesting at the front for most of the first half before both cars were dragging at the bottom for the second half, ECR was looking for better balance in its results. The drivers remained the same but the program did expand in a minor way. Things improved and the team replicated its best form on multiple occasions this season, but there is more to be done as there were a few rough patches. 

Rinus VeeKay
After achieving early success in the 2021 season, VeeKay's results fell off in the second half of that season and the hope was the 2022 season would see more of his best. The raw talent came out in a number of good performances, but there were still a few down points. The lows might not have been as low as the year prior, but there is certainly room for improvement.

What objectively was his best race?
VeeKay won pole position at Barber Motorsports Park and he led 57 laps before losing the lead in the final round of pit stops. Patricio O'Ward had better a better in-lap, pit stop and out-lap compared to VeeKay and it got O'Ward the lead while Palou took second, but VeeKay held on for third. 

What subjectively was his best race?
Barber was the one race VeeKay looked like a threat for victory. Mid-Ohio deserves a mention because he was moving forward in that race and wound up fourth. He also got sixth at St. Petersburg with a slightly alternate strategy that nearly bit him stretching the alternate tire on the opening stint.

What objectively was his worst race?
It doesn't get lower than 33rd in the Indianapolis 500. For VeeKay, he spun in turn two while running in the top ten and looking like he was going to be in the mix for the entire race from third on the grid.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is hard to top the Indianapolis 500 because it was a deflating result considering where he started. There are a few others results that look bad. He had a rough day in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis where he didn't show great pace and he did spin. In the second Iowa race, VeeKay was lined up for a promising result before a pit lane entry infraction cost him and put him two laps down. 

Gateway probably takes the cake though because Ed Carpenter Racing was slow there. VeeKay had nothing and it was almost merciful the car broke down on him after 53 laps because he wasn't going to do much better than his 23rd starting position. 

Rinus VeeKay's 2022 Statistics
Championship Position: 12th (331 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 3
Top Tens: 6
Laps Led: 94
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 3
Fast Twelves: 7
Average Start: 11.235
Average Finish: 14.059

Conor Daly
After a dismal 2021 season, Daly hoped to run closer to his younger and less experienced teammate in 2022. Though there were good days for Daly and he was more of a contributor to Ed Carpenter Racing's success, he still came in second among the two drivers. The gap remained noticeable at times with Daly more likely than not at the rear.

What objectively was his best race?
A fifth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis after Daly nearly blew the race going on a massive fuel save while no one in the race did. Daly went from the top five to outside the top fifteen because everyone else was pushing on slicks as Daly saved fuel. However, the race changing back to wet conditions combined with the cautions allowed Daly to recover and pull out a top five result.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, but everyone will remember Daly's sixth in the Indianapolis 500. Twice Daly had the caution come out in an advantageous position for him in the pit cycle. The cautions put him in the top five when he might not have ever cracked the top ten in the race and he spent much of the race in the top five before finishing sixth.

What objectively was his worst race?
That would be 25th at Portland after a small fire re-fueling cost him time on his first stop, but it also burned out his clutch and ended his race after only 67 of 110 laps.

What subjectively was his worst race?
The Iowa races. Daly started third in both race of the doubleheader. In race one, he fell like a rock and finished 19th. In race two, he fell like a rock and finished 16th. At the start of the Iowa weekend, it felt like it would not have been surprising if Daly won one of the races. When it was over, we had two races where Daly was a factor in neither and it was a wasted chance for some results. All the one-lap speed in the world wasn't going to cover for the tire degradation that ECR wasn't on top of. 

Conor Daly's 2022 Statistics
Championship Position: 17th (267 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 2
Laps Led: 7
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 2
Average Start: 15.412
Average Finish: 16.529

Ed Carpenter
Unlike previous seasons, Ed Carpenter's oval-only program was not in the #20 Chevrolet which he has become known for driving over the last 15 years or so. Instead, Carpenter gave the keys to the #20 entirely to Daly while Carpenter himself moved into the #33 Chevrolet for the five oval races. It was a new ride, but the results looked similar to past seasons for the owner-driver.

What objectively was his best race?
It was Carpenter's first race of the season where he finished 13th at Texas from 21st on the grid and led four laps during a pit cycle.

What subjectively was his best race?
Uh... Texas? Texas wasn't even that good of a race for Carpenter. He made up eight positions from where he started, but all of those were basically from other cars retiring. At no point did Carpenter make any flashy moves in that race.

What objectively was his worst race?
It would be 25th in the first Iowa race when he had an accident. It was a race where Carpenter never looked competitive to begin with.

What subjectively was his worst race?
The Indianapolis 500 wasn't going to be a spectacular finish for Carpenter when the red flag came out. He was tenth when the race was stopped, but unfortunately, Carpenter's car did not restart when the red flag was lifted. Once the car was fired, it took longer than allowed for him to retain his running position and instead of restarting tenth, he restarted last on the lead lap and in two laps he clawed to 19th. 

Ed Carpenter's 2022 Statistics
Championship Position: 27th (75 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 4
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 18.4
Average Finish: 19.2

An Early Look Ahead
More of the same for Ed Carpenter Racing, which isn't a bad thing, but it makes you wonder what the future looks like. 

VeeKay agreed to a contract extension earlier this year. Daly is secure for at least 2023, but his long-term status is questionable. VeeKay still looks like the driver that ECR can build around, but for every race VeeKay excites you there are two races where he is average. That could partially be on the team because more times than not it is VeeKay leading the way while Daly is running 15th. It has been rare over the last three seasons where Daly is leading by a comfortable margin. It has normally been VeeKay ahead comfortably or the two cars close together with VeeKay still ahead majority of the time in those scenarios as well. 

As for VeeKay's future, it feels more likely he will be a long-term ECR driver. For a driver who won early in his sophomore season, some have seen him poised for a move to a larger team. It doesn't seem like that is going to happen. It is pretty crowded and VeeKay hasn't really stood out. He won a race, but he has also finished outside the top fifteen in 21 of 46 career starts, 45.65%. It is only getting more crowded with Callum Ilott, David Malukas and Christian Lundgaard on the grid. It could be beneficial if VeeKay and ECR commit to each other. 

ECR represents what IndyCar is at the basic level. All the teams have a shot at winning on their given weekend. ECR can have it all click at one track and pull out a victory. It happened in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis in 2021 and it nearly happened at Barber in 2022. A team could have three or four race weekends that are like that. It is a great feeling, but beyond those three or four or possibly even six or seven race weekends, it just doesn't have enough to be a championship contender. That is great for the series in the sense on any weekend someone can surprise but it is bad that really about 75% of the grid you know isn't going to be fighting for a championship. 

Teams can come close and ECR was one of those teams with Josef Newgarden. Since Newgarden, it has fallen into the pack with the rest. For this team to be more than everyone's darling a few races a year, it needs to make a big stride and seeing its pace at certain places it almost feels possible, but the last few seasons show it hasn't made much ground from where it has been. 

Carpenter moving to his own entry and ECR having two full-time drivers is a step for the team. It knows two dedicated drivers working together every weekend will bring more success than the rotation we saw from 2014 through 2021. Giving VeeKay and Daly another year together is good for the program, but 2023 is where we will fine where the limit is. Daly has been with ECR since 2020, two years as the road/street course driver and 2023 will be his second as a full-time driver. After what happens next year, wherever the chips fall are where they fall. If Daly is again outside the top fifteen and VeeKay is ahead of him, somewhere between ninth and 14th, I think it is clear the direction the team needs to go to grow. 

Next season will be a pivotal point for the ECR organization. Difficult decisions will be made.