It is odd when mid-November feels like an early end to the Formula One season, but after the last two seasons extending into December due to the global pandemic, and the general trend of the season, we were getting more comfortable with December finishes. However, with the World Cup, Formula One knew it had to roll up its carpet sooner than recent years, and here we are a few days away from Thanksgiving, and with just over 100 days until the next grand prix, and a Formula One recently concluded.
The season is over, but let's put a bow on 2022 and look at the predictions made just after Christmas about 11 months ago.
1. George Russell scores at least five victories
Wrong!
Wildly wrong. If you want an idea how these predictions are going to go, use this as a guide.
Mercedes struggled with its new car. It struggled with porpoising early in the season. Mercedes wasn't making the power to match Red Bull and Ferrari. It was still the third best team on the grid and could fight for a podium position, but it couldn't consistently compete for race victories.
It broke through in Brazil with Russell leading the way. Russell won the sprint race at Interlagos and set up a 1-2 start for Mercedes, its first front row lockout in the penultimate race of the season. Russell and Lewis Hamilton drove marvelously. Hamilton overcame contact early with Max Verstappen, but Russell went basically untouched and took his first career grand prix victory.
There were a few other close calls. Mercedes likely feels like Silverstone, Hungary and Zandvoort got away from them. There was even a chance of victory in Austin.
Russell was the best driver for Mercedes for the first half of the season and him and Hamilton were about level in the second half of the year, but Russell wasn't close to five victories.
I still think this was a good year for Mercedes. It was disappointing on Mercedes' standards, but Russell opened the season with nine consecutive top five finishes, the longest streak this season. He had 19 top five finishes. Mercedes will right the ship. It was competitive and sniffing victories late in the season. It will breakthrough and should be more successful in 2023.
2. Red Bull will be on the podium in fewer races
Wrong!
Red Bull had at least on podium finisher in 20 races. After having both cars retire in the closing laps in Bahrain, Red Bull then had a car on the podium in 19 consecutive races. They were the class of the field. There were a few other minor teething problems, but those were exceptions, not the rule for the 2022 season.
Even when the team had to start at the back it found a way to get a car on the podium and even win the race. Red Bull somehow did better than 2021 and that was hard to fathom at the start of the season.
3. McLaren and Ferrari will each have a victory
Wrong and Correct!
McLaren was shutout, McLaren had one podium finish all season, but Ferrari won four times and had the best car on the grid for the first portion of the season. But Ferrari wasted opportunities, coughing up race victories through reliability issues and poor strategy.
With how dominant Red Bull was, it is hard to say Ferrari cost itself the championship, but this should not have been wrapped up as early as it was. It was never going to go until the finale but the World Drivers' Championship probably should have been decided at one of the North American rounds if Ferrari had its act together.
4. Yuki Tsunoda will be dropped before the summer break
Wrong!
Tsunoda went the distance, running all 22 races. He was never in any real danger of being dropped midseason, though his inconsistency has led to some public critiques from the Red Bull camp, something the Red Bull group never does with a young driver. That was sarcasm in case you didn't pick up on it.
5. Valtteri Bottas will score more points than Alfa Romeo has scored in the last two seasons combined
Correct!
Bottas just had to score 22 points. He scored 49 points and it only took him four races to exceed the 22-point threshold.
He was sixth at Bahrain, netting him eight points. Two races later, he was eighth at Australia, four more points and 12 total. Then at Imola, he was seventh in the sprint race, scoring him two points, bringing his total to 14 points. In the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix the following day, Bottas was fifth, adding another ten points to his total and hitting 24 points.
6. At least three races are won from outside a top five grid position
Correct!
They all happened in the second half of the year and they all happened with Max Verstappen.
Verstappen won from tenth at Hungary after power unit issues prevented him from running a flying lap in qualifying. A combination of virtual safety cars and pit strategy allowed Verstappen to climb to the lead and take the victory.
To do himself one better, four better actually, in Belgium, Verstappen won from 14th on the grid. He set the fastest lap in qualifying and won pole position, but he had to start at the back of the field for exceeding the power unit element changes. However, with seven other drivers taking grid penalties, Verstappen still started 14th. An early safety car period bunched the field not long after the start and by lap 12, Verstappen was leading. He won by 17.841 seconds over his Red Bull teammate Sergio Pérez.
Which brings us to Monza. Verstappen qualified second but again took a five-spot grid penalty for changing a power unit element. He quickly moved up the order and took the lead when Charles Leclerc stopped for tires. Leclerc would re-inherit the lead but went on a two-stop strategy, handing the lead back to Verstappen. Leclerc's chase failed, snuffed out when a safety car came out with eight laps to go due to Danial Ricciardo stopping on the edge of the circuit with an oil leak.
Looking closer, these victories all occurred in a four-race period. It was really this portion of the season where Verstappen ran away with the championship. This was a time for Leclerc to make a move and at least pressure Verstappen and Red Bull, but instead of making up ground, Verstappen only pulled further away.
7. Aston Martin averages at least eight points per race
Wrong!
Massively wrong. Aston Martin didn't come close to averaging eight points per race. That would have been a 176-point season and would have been good enough for fourth in the constructors' championship.
Instead, Aston Martin scored 55 points, an average of 2.5 points per race.
Sebastian Vettel had a few good days, showing signs he still has it as a driver. Lance Stroll... well, he also scored points. This was another step back for Aston Martin. It will shake up the lineup again with Fernando Alonso sliding into the second seats besides Stroll. Things could get better. They could become worse.
8. There will be at least one nationality sweep of a podium
Wrong!
Our hopes laid with Britain and it could not produce, though it got two-thirds of the way there.
It didn't help that only once did a British driver win in 2022, and it wasn't until the penultimate race. George Russell won the Brazilian Grand Prix. Lewis Hamilton made it a Mercedes 1-2 and a British 1-2. But what about Lando Norris?
Well, Norris retired, and we will enter the 2023 pushing nearly 40 years since the last time one nationality swept a podium in a Formula One race.
9. Fewer than five times will a driver win races on consecutive weekends
Correct!
But it happened on four occasions and could have very well happened five times.
Max Verstappen was responsible for all four of these. Verstappen won at Azerbaijan and then he won seven days later in Canada. He won at France and Hungary before the summer break and then after the summer break he won in Belgium, Italy and Netherlands. He capped it off with victories on successive weekends in the United States and Canada.
At the start of the year, Charles Leclerc and Verstappen split Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. Verstappen and Sergio Pérez split Spain and Monaco. Ferrari was responsible for a sweep of successive weekends in Great Britain and Austria. In Asia, Pérez and Verstappen split Singapore and Japan, and to end the season Russell and Verstappen split Brazil and Abu Dhabi.
10. At least eight drivers score points in sprint qualifying
I have to remove this prediction off the board because when these predictions were made the thought was sprint races would still only pay point to the top three finishers. It was decided a month ahead of the season opener that the sprint races would pay points to the top eight finishers.
With the plan remaining that only three grand prix would have sprint races set up the starting order for the Sunday race, initially it was thought there would only be nine drivers scoring points through the sprint sessions. With eight drivers receiving points, 24 points paying opportunities were on the table. We would have eight drivers scoring points in the sprint races in the first race alone!
I cannot take any credit for this prediction. It gets removed from the board.
11. Haas will score at least six points
Correct!
Haas scored well more than six points. It scored 37 points. Haas wound up eighth in the Constructors' Championship, its best finish since 2018.
This prediction was made when Nikita Mazepin was still slated to be driving for the team. Then Russia invaded Ukraine, sanctions were handed out around the world, the Mazepin financial pipeline was closed off and Haas needed to find another driver.
Enter Kevin Magnussen somewhat unexpectedly. Magnussen wasn't the reason for all the points, but he likely tallied a few more to the Haas total than had this team been Mazepin and Mick Schumacher.
In testing, Haas looked competitive. It wasn't a matter of if they would score six points. They would easily clear points. Did we expect Magnussen to end up fifth and score ten points in the first race at Bahrain? No! Who would have?
Those kind of results were still uncommon this season. Most of the points results are finishes of eighth, ninth or tenth, just getting into the points, nothing all that spectacular. Schumacher did score 12 points on his own in 2022. Even without Magnussen Haas would have been fine and anything Mazepin could have produced would have been gravy for this prediction.
Haas was a much more formidable entry this year and it rightfully took eighth in the constructors' championship.
12. There will be fewer home race winners than in 2021
Correct!
We only had one home race winner, and it was Max Verstappen at the Dutch Grand Prix. That was down from two home race winners in 2021.
Daniel Ricciardo didn't win in Australia. Charles Leclerc did.
Neither Carlos Sainz, Jr. nor Fernando Alonso won in Spain. Max Verstappen did.
Leclerc didn't win in Monaco. Sergio Pérez did.
Neither Lance Stroll nor Nicholas Latifi won in Canada. Verstappen did.
Neither Lewis Hamilton, George Russell nor Lando Norris won at Silverstone. Sainz did.
Neither Pierre Gasly nor Esteban Ocon won in France. Verstappen did.
Yuki Tunoda didn't win in Japan. Verstappen did.
Pérez didn't win in Mexico. Verstappen did.
This works out to 5.5 out of 11. Somehow, a .500 record. This wasn't the greatest set of predictions. Some were optimistic, but what is wrong with optimism? It is better that way. But there is room for improvement. Simultaneously, there is just as much room to get worse. The tranquility of balance, unsatisfied and yet grateful. Such a human place to be.
