Saturday, May 13, 2023

First Impressions: Tenth Grand Prix of Indianapolis

1. Some races the fastest car dominates. Alex Palou was that driver today, and though there were a plethora of strategies, Palou had the best one of them all, winning the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. It was up in the air until about the halfway point, and when Palou overtook Christian Lundgaard, who was struggling on a set of alternate tires, it was race over. Palou pulled away and no one else could keep up.

Chip Ganassi Racing was strong in practice and Palou led the way. Starting third, Palou did not need long to take the lead. From there, he dictated the race. Lundgaard had a few moments where it looked like he would be in charge and could pull out his first career victory, but Lundgaard's strategy wasn't going to be a winning one today. The third stint on alternate tires was the wrong one for the Dane, and Palou benefitted.

All the team had to do was nail the final stop and Palou had to keep it on the asphalt. Check and check. Last year, Palou waited until the final race of the season for his first victory. He had a few other close calls, but couldn't quite get it to click until Laguna Seca. All it took was to the middle of May and Palou is on top. We know he can pull out a championship. This result coming two weeks before the Indianapolis 500 could shift the tide in the Spaniard's title hopes.

2. It was a brilliant day for Arrow McLaren across the board. Patricio O'Ward ended up leading the way. O'Ward's middle two stints launched him ahead of Palou and Lundgaard. Palou would get back ahead, but O'Ward left Lundgaard in the dust. Palou was special today. O'Ward should settle for second, though three runner-up results in five races isn't what anyone dreams about.

However, it is the start to a magnificent championship effort. O'Ward is going to be there into September. Outside of Long Beach, O'Ward hasn't put a wheel wrong. He could arguably have two victories this season. If he did, it wouldn't be crazy to say he is the man to beat over the final dozen races. Without a victory, he looks fallible, but that isn't quite accurate. O'Ward is already the championship favorite and he is going to win multiple times. If anyone else is going to win the title it will require a tremendous effort.

3. Alexander Rossi made a big leap forward, avoiding the frukus at the start and he spent basically the entire race in the top five. At one moment, Rossi was the top McLaren driver, but he dropped to third of the three cars on his early tire choice. In the closing laps, he had the tires and he drove forward and knocked Lundgaard down another position.

Rossi has somewhat been the third best McLaren driver this season, but not by much, and they are all competing at a high level. The pit lane contact at Texas and the suspension failure at Long Beach unfairly knock Rossi down, but he is regularly the third McLaren driver in qualifying. However, the pace is there. Rossi needed a strong race. He got it just before the Indianapolis 500. It is going to be tough to win at McLaren with O'Ward as the lead driver, but Rossi is up for the challenge.

4. Christian Lundgaard clung to a fourth-place finish, barely holding off Felix Rosenqvist. This feels like a race lost on strategy. Lundgaard took alternates when he should have taken primary tires. He took primary tires when he should have taken alternates. Then again, perhaps it didn't matter. Perhaps Palou was going to be unstoppable today and even if Lundgaard did everything in reverse he still would have finished second, third or fourth with Palou winning.

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing set the bar high today for Lundgaard. This group felt it should win. I don't think fourth is anything to be disappointed in. This team spent the entire race in the top five. Lundgaard qualified on pole. RLLR hasn't been doing that much this season or for the last two seasons. It is ok to be upset, but the team should not be devastated with this result. There are more positives to glean from today than negatives.

5. Fifth is right for Felix Rosenqvist. Rosenqvist wasn't quite set for a podium finish, but he shouldn't have finished eighth, ninth or tenth. He was better than Rossi in the middle of the race, but Rosenqvist's tires were gone just prior to his final pit stop and that cost him the spot to Rossi. Good day for Rosenqvist. All three McLaren drivers were in the top five. There isn't a loser in that equation. McLaren "won," though it didn't finish first.

6. Scott Dixon pulled a sixth out of next to nothing. Dixon lost some spots in the start chaos. He wasn't blisteringly quick, but Dixon drove smart, took care of his tires, was good on fuel and he got sixth. Yeah, typical Scott Dixon day.

7. Josef Newgarden looked to be an outside challenge for the top five, but his penultimate stint lost him some time and he lost a few more spots in that pit cycle and he was seventh. It doesn't sound great, but Newgarden was heading in the right direction. He was clearly the best Penske driver. I don't think he was that far off, but he had more work to do after starting 13th.

8. Marcus Ericsson did not flashy and ended up eighth. Those days happen. Ericsson is routinely good on the IMS road course, but has never been great. This was another one of those days. He started seventh, and I am not sure Ericsson spent one lap above seventh. If he did, it was only through a pit cycle. If there is a knock on Ericsson, it is this, a lot of days finishing eighth and not enough podium results.

9. Colton Herta went forward for most of this race, and in the final stint a top five look possible, but his alternate tires were gone with about four laps to go and Herta dropped to ninth, still five spots better than where he started, but not a true representation of where he was at today. The alternate tires were very tempermental today. The degradation level varied greatly. Herta stopped a lap after O'Ward and yet Herta's laps were over 2.5 seconds slower than O'Ward at the end of the race.

10. Graham Rahal was facing the wrong way after the first corner with a tire puncture. At the end of 85 laps, Rahal was tenth. It required a methodical drive, saving fuel and basically performing a 207-mile sacrifice. Rahal let many cars pass because he had no other choice, but it paid off with a top ten. It is disappointing because Rahal started eighth and he probably thought he could challenge for the top five. He got something out of this day when it could have been much worse.

11. Romain Grosjean had a physical race, banging into others as he attempted to drive from 18th on the grid. It is hard to celebrate 11th. Grosjean wasn't close. Andretti Autosport didn't have a good race. I sense there was more frustration from Andretti this weekend than expected. Not much of a moral victory in this one.

12. Will Power overcame a spin after contact with Kyle Kirkwood to finish 12th. Kirkwood did get an avoidable contact penalty. I disagree with it because the contact only happened because Power ran Kirkwood wide. They both missed the corner and Power put himself on Kirkwood's front wing. Contact was unavoidable in that case and Kirkwood was punished for it. At least Kirkwood recovered to finish 14th. Sandwiched between the turn one combatants was Rinus VeeKay in 13th. VeeKay hung in there. Didn't do anything wrong, ended up 13th.

14. Let's run through the field. Marcus Armstrong was 15th. The IMS road course is tough on tires, and tough for young drivers. Remember Lundgaard's debut in 2021? Armstrong will grow off this race. Scott McLaughlin had wing damage at one point and he had to make an unscheduled pit stop late. Many drivers had rough days, McLaughlin included, finishing 16th.

15. Devlin DeFrancesco was just outside the top ten after all the mess at the start, but he didn't make anything of the free positions and dropped to 17th. Callum Ilott found some speed late to finish 18th. That was much better than where he was for most of this race. Conor Daly was 19th and Daly had a similar day to DeFrancesco. They were both in the top 12 and neither finished close to that.

16. This day could not have gone worse for Jack Harvey. Harvey started fourth, looked good and then the race came apart. He had a spin on his own and while Lundgaard finished fourth, Rahal recovered from contact to finish tenth, Harvey ended up 20th.

This day had to be better for Harvey. RLLR has struggled with qualifying pace for the last two seasons, but Harvey hasn't turned a bad Saturday into a good Sunday, as has been the case with Lundgaard and Rahal. The one time Harvey starts at the front, he drops to where he has been running for the last two seasons.

Like Lundgaard, today didn't have to be a victory for Harvey, but he should have at least kept that car in the top ten. Harvey needed a good day. He wasted this opportunity. There is no guarantee another one will come.

17. Agustin Canapino was 21st, not bad. Meyer Shank Racing had a day from hell. Helio Castroneves was 22nd, I am not sure he spent a lap inside the top twenty even with a half-dozen drivers getting into incidents. Right when it looked like Simon Pagenaud would have a respectable day and at least finish in the top half of the field, what happens? Pagenaud has a loose wheel nut on the right rear on his final stop. Race over. Goodbye top half, hello 25th.

18. During the same pit cycle, Santino Ferrucci had a loose wheel nut and had to stop on pit lane. Ferrucci made up some spots, but wasn't quite in the top fifteen. Benjamin Pedersen had a radio issue coming to the start and forced him to pit immediately and he lost four laps. When it rains it pours for the Foyt organization.

19. At least A.J. Foyt Racing wasn't Dale Coyne Racing today. Lap two, Sting Ray Robb was over-ambitious entering turn seven and took out teammate David Malukas along with himself. Robb hasn't done much wrong this season, but he hasn't shown much potential either. Taking out your teammate on lap two will be hard to forget.

20. The IMS road course has gotten its races to a point where tire degradation is prominent and speed wins, forcing everyone to commit to some kind of three-stop strategy. That is what makes this race stand out. Many different strategies can get you on top. We hardly see the same race twice on the IMS road course. It is a good way to start off the festivities from Indianapolis.

21. Next up is the Indianapolis 500. The only thing in-between are six practice days and a qualifying weekend. We are here.