The 11th and 12th round of the 2023 NTT IndyCar Series brings the series to Iowa Speedway for the only doubleheader on the calendar. This is the third consecutive time Iowa has hosted a doubleheader. Chevrolet has won five consecutive Iowa races, and since engine competition returned to IndyCar in 2012, Chevrolet has won nine of 12 Iowa races. Honda enters this weekend having won four consecutive races, but Honda has not won in any of the last five oval races. With 28 cars entered, these will be the largest Iowa races in IndyCar history. Four Iowa races had started 26 cars, including both races last year.
Coverage
Time: Coverage for the first Iowa race begins at 3:00 p.m. ET on Saturday July 22 with green flag scheduled for 3:05 p.m. ET. Coverage for the second Iowa race begins at 2:00 p.m. ET on Sunday July 23 with green flag scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee and Dillon Welch will work pit lane.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee and Dillon Welch will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
Practice: 4:30 p.m. ET (90 minutes)
Saturday:
Qualifying: 9:30 p.m. ET
Race: 3:05 p.m. ET (250 laps)
Sunday:
Race: 2:30 p.m. ET (250 laps)
Sunday:
Race: 2:30 p.m. ET (250 laps)
* - All sessions will be available live on Peacock
Newgarden's Last Stand
With the dominance of Álex Palou championship, time is running out on the rest of the field when it comes to the championship, and we are reaching the point where even if a driver is winning every race, it could not be enough to beat Palou in points.
For two-time champion Josef Newgarden, Iowa might be his last chance to make a run at the title. Entering this weekend, Newgarden is third in the championship, 126 points behind Palou, and with seven races remaining, only 378 points remain on the table.
Newgarden is by far the best driver at Iowa. He leads all drivers with four victories. His average finish is 6.75. He has led 1,506 laps, including having led at least one lap in nine consecutive Iowa races. He has led over 100 laps seven times at Iowa. In five of those races, he has led over 200 laps. The Tennesseean has led 46.9% of the laps he has completed at Iowa. Newgarden's 1,506 laps led are 862 more than the next closest driver, which would be Hélio Castroneves.
And this includes some of Newgarden's worst results. He has eight top five finishes and nine top ten finishes and then has finishes of 19th, 15th and 24th, which was in the second race last year when Newgarden suffered a rear right suspension failure while leading with 65 laps remaining. Remove that result alone from his Iowa data, and Newgarden's average finish improves to 5.181.
It isn't just race pace either. Newgarden has qualified in the top three in seven of the last eight Iowa races. He has started on pole position in the last four races. However, his only pole position here was the second race of the 2020 Iowa doubleheader.
Iowa isn't the only thing on Newgarden's side. It is ovals in general. Newgarden has won the last three oval races dating back to Gateway last year, and his last four victories have been on ovals. He has won five of the seven oval races since the start of the 2022 season. During this three-race oval winning streak, Newgarden has led only 206 of 710 laps. He led only five laps in the Indianapolis 500 back in May and he won that race from 17th starting position, the furthest back he has won from in his career.
It was the 13th oval victory in his career, but it was the first time he has won an oval race from outside a top ten starting position. Nine of his oval victories have come from a top four starting position. In his other three oval victories, Newgarden started seventh in each of them.
Victories and laps led are the most important, but what will get Newgarden back into the championship is points, and with all of his victories and top five finishes, he has bagged a fair number of points at this place. Since the 2014 Iowa race, Newgarden has scored 400 points out of a possible 540 points at the 7/8-mile oval. That is an average of 40 points per Iowa start, equivalent to a second-place finish.
Ganassi's Drought
It has been a long time since Chip Ganassi Racing has won at Iowa Speedway, 14 years to be exact. Of all the tracks on the 2023 IndyCar schedule, it is the track where Ganassi has gone the longest without a victory. In fact, of the other 14 circuits on the 2023 IndyCar schedule, Ganassi has won at 12 of them since the start of the 2020 season. The only other circuit the team has not won at during this decade is Long Beach, where Ganassi's most recent victory was in 2015.
Scott Dixon has never won at Iowa in 17 starts. The only track where Dixon has more starts without a victory is St. Petersburg, where Dixon is 0-for-19. While Dixon has yet to win at Iowa, he has a respectable track record there. Among drivers with at least three Iowa starts, Dixon ranks second all-time in average finish at 6.529, behind only Patricio O'Ward's 4.75 and ahead of Josef Newgarden's 6.75.
Dixon's 11 top five finishes are most all-time. His 14 top ten finishes are also most all-time. The only other driver with at least ten top ten finishes at Iowa is Graham Rahal at 11. Dixon enters this weekend with five consecutive top five finishes at Iowa despite not starting in the top five in any of those races. The New Zealander has not started in the top five in any of the last eight Iowa races, and he has started outside the top ten in the last four Iowa races.
While Dixon has been at the front, he has not been a true contender. He has led only 130 laps in his career at Iowa. In the last ten Iowa races, Dixon has led only 22 laps, and in only one of those races has he led more than two laps, that was 17 laps in the 2014 race. Only twice has he led more than 20 laps in an Iowa race, 21 in the 2010 race and 76 in the 2012 race.
Beside Dixon, this will only be the third Iowa experience for Álex Palou, and if there was ever a weekend to slow the Spaniard's championship assault, Iowa is it. Palou has finished 11th, 14th, sixth and 13th in his four Iowa starts. He has never finished on the lead lap at Iowa, but he has finished exactly one-lap down in each occasion. He has never led a lap at the 7/8th-mile oval and his average starting position is 12.5 with his only top ten start being seventh in the second race in 2020.
Though Palou had no oval experience prior to his IndyCar debut in 2020, he has been respectable. In his last three Indianapolis 500 starts, he has finished second, ninth and fourth from pole position. At Texas, he has four consecutive top ten finishes. It is the short ovals which he has found trickiest. Along with his Iowa results, in four Gateway starts he has finished 15th, 12th, 20th and ninth. Beside the 2021 Gateway race, where he was caught in an accident, Palou has finished on the lead lap in his other three Gateway starts.
Marcus Ericsson has never finished worse than 11th at Iowa, and even 11th is not an accurate representation of that race. In his first Iowa start, Ericsson was called for an improper pit entry on his final pit stop in the 2019 race, and it cost what was definitely going to be a top ten finish and was likely going to be a top five result. Since that night, Ericsson has finished ninth, ninth, eighth and sixth at Iowa. This all coming despite his best starting position being ninth at the track. Ericsson has never led a lap at Iowa.
Beside Iowa, Ericsson has eight consecutive top ten finishes on ovals dating back to Gateway 2021.
This weekend sees Takuma Sato return to the Ganassi fold in the #11 Honda. Iowa has not been one of Sato's better tracks. Despite being the location of Sato's first career pole position in IndyCar, he has one one top five finishes and three top ten finishes in 14 Iowa starts. He was third in 2018 and then tenth in the first race in 2020 and the second race last year.
Sato's average finish of 16.142 is the second worst among drivers with at least five Iowa starts. The only driver he is ahead of is Colton Herta, whose average through five Iowa starts is 18.6.
Going For 300
Christian Lundgaard's victory last weekend at Toronto made Lundgaard the 299th different winner in IndyCar history. The Danish driver led 54 of 85 laps from pole position, taking the lead once and for all on lap 62 and stretching his margin of victory out to 11.789 seconds by the time he took the checkered flag.
It was Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing's first victory since the 2020 Indianapolis 500 and the team's first street course victory since the second Belle Isle race in 2017. Lundgaard became the second first-time winner this season, and in doing so the next new winner will complete the third century of victorious drivers for a record book that dates back to the 1909 season, which the American Automobile Association sanctioned.
There will be two chances at a first-time winner this weekend at Iowa, and there will be ten drivers entered this weekend who could become the 300th winner.
Romain Grosjean is the top driver in the championship without a victory in his career. Grosjean has nose-dived since finishing second in consecutive races at Long Beach and Barber Motorsports Park this spring. His best finish in the last six races is 11th in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, and he has finished outside the top twenty in four of those events. The Frenchman was one of five drivers who had top ten finishes in both Iowa races last year.
Callum Ilott was 12th and 11th in the Iowa races last year, and Ilott is also winless in his still young IndyCar career. Ilott was in the top ten in the first two races this season, including a ninth at Texas, his first oval top ten finish. However, he has not finished in the top ten since. He has finished inside the top twenty in the last eight races, but only two of those have been top fifteen results.
Santino Ferrucci was a contender at the most recent oval race, the Indianapolis 500. Ferrucci qualified fourth and led 11 laps before finishing third, his career best finish. All five of Ferrucci's top five finishes in his career have come on ovals, but in three Iowa starts, his best finish is 12th.
David Malukas has finished in the top five in two of his last three oval starts. Malukas was runner-up at Gateway to Newgarden last year, and he was fourth at Texas in April. However, he struggled in the Indianapolis 500 and was 29th after hitting the barrier. He was sixth at Mid-Ohio two races ago, but his average finish since the Grand Prix of Indianapolis is 21.833.
Agustín Canapino matched his career best finish of 12th at Toronto. Canapino opened the season with a pair of 12th-place finishes. Last week, Lundgaard became the first Danish winner in IndyCar history. Canapino would be the first Argentine winner in IndyCar history. Denmark became the first new country with an IndyCar winner since Takuma Sato scored Japan's first IndyCar victory back in 2013. The only other new countries to win in IndyCar since the start of the 21st century are South Africa with Tomas Schecker and Spain with Oriol Servià.
Devlin DeFrancesco is looking to win Canada its first race since James Hinchcliffe won at Iowa in 2018. Hinchcliffe also won at Iowa in 2013.
Jack Harvey was seventh in both Iowa races in 2020, but Harvey was 18th and 20th in the Iowa races last year.
Conor Daly is back in the #60 Meyer Shank Racing Honda as Simon Pagenaud continues to recover from his Mid-Ohio practice accident. Daly's only pole position came in the first Iowa race in 2020. Last year, he was 19th and 16th at Iowa. Daly was eighth in the Indianapolis 500 in May.
Sting Ray Robb was 19th at Toronto, his best finish since he was 18th at Long Beach in April. Robb was fifth in last year's Indy Lights race at Iowa, his first appearance at the circuit.
Benjamin Pedersen is looking to become the second Danish winner in as many race weekends. The last time IndyCar had consecutive first-time winner that came from the same country was in 2000 when Brazilians Hélio Castroneves, Roberto Moreno and Cristiano da Matta each scored their first career victories in CART that season. Each had their first career victory occur over a span of six races.
This is the second time in three seasons there have been multiple first-time winners in an IndyCar season. Last decade, there were only three seasons that had multiple first-time winners (2011, 2013 and 2015).
One of These Drivers Will Not Win a Race
There are only seven races left in the IndyCar season, which means at most we can only see seven more winners this season. That means a fair number of drivers will end 2023 without a victory, and there is a notable list of drivers who could be end the year winless.
Dixon leads that list at the moment. He has won a race in 18 consecutive seasons, an IndyCar record. He has won a race in 20 seasons, an IndyCar record. Dixon is second all-time in IndyCar victories with 53, but he is pushing a full calendar year without a victory. Since 2003, Dixon has gone at least 365 days without a victory on only two occasions. The first time was from Richmond 2003 to Watkins Glen in 2005. The other was from Texas 2021 to Toronto 2022.
Along with Dixon, Will Power has not won yet this season, and it has been more than a calendar year since Power's most recent victory. The last time Power was on top was the final Belle Isle race in 2022, over 13 months ago. Power is currently in the middle of a 16-season winning streak, the second longest in IndyCar history, only behind Dixon. Power has won a race in 16 seasons, currently tied for the third most seasons with a victory with Mario Andretti and Hélio Castroneves.
Patricio O'Ward began the season with three runner-up finishes in the first five races. O'Ward has since stood on the podium on only one other occasion and had a victory slip through his fingers after leading the most laps in the Indianapolis 500. O'Ward is the most recent Iowa winner, taking advantage of Newgarden's accident. However, O'Ward has finished fourth, 12th, second and first in his four Iowa starts, and that 12th came after a bad pit stop took him out of contention for a podium finish.
Alexander Rossi ended a three-year winless drought last August on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course. In his first year with McLaren, Rossi is approaching another year without a victory. He has five top five finishes since that victory, but only one podium finish, a third on the IMS road course this past May. Iowa has not been one of Rossi's favorite tracks. While he does have five top ten finishes at the short track, Rossi has never finished in the top five here and he has finished off the lead lap in five of eight Iowa starts.
This time last year, Colton Herta was looking to fight for a top three championship finish, which would have earned Herta enough FIA Super License points to qualify for Formula One. Herta is already over a year removed from his most recent victory. His third-place at Toronto last week was only his second podium finish in the last 22 IndyCar races. As mentioned before, Iowa is not Herta's comfort zone. His best finish here is 12th.
Felix Rosenqvist is another McLaren driver looking for a victory. Rosenqvist was third in Detroit, and his only other top five was fifth at the IMS road course in May. It has been over three years since the Swede's only IndyCar victory. His only top five finish on an oval was fourth in the Indianapolis 500 last year. His best Iowa finish was seventh in the second Iowa race last season.
Graham Rahal has made 100 starts since his most recent victory, and Iowa is a possible place for him to break his duck. Rahal only has four top five finishes, including a third in the second race in 2020, but he does have 11 top ten results in 16 starts. He has never started in the top five at Iowa and he has started outside the top ten in 12 races.
Rinus VeeKay is responsible for Ed Carpenter Racing's most recent victory, but that was over two years ago in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Ed Carpenter Racing has not won an oval race since Josef Newgarden won at Iowa in 2016. VeeKay has had at least one podium finish in each of his first three seasons in IndyCar. Through the first ten races in 2023, the Dutchman's best finish is tenth, which came at the Indianapolis 500.
Hélio Castroneves and Ryan Hunter-Reay are two past Iowa winners who are winless entering this weekend. Castroneves' best finish this year was tenth at Texas. His most recent top five finish was his fourth Indianapolis 500 victory in 2021. Hunter-Reay's finishing positions in his three races with Ed Carpenter Racing are 17th, 19th and 26th. He won three Iowa races in a four-year span from 2012 to 2015, but he has finished outside the top fifteen in five of his last six Iowa starts.
Of these ten drivers, five carried a winning streak into this season.
Indy Lights
Iowa marks the first of two oval races in the 2023 Indy Lights season, and there are only seven races remaining.
Forty-two points cover the top four drivers. Nolan Siegel lost a chunk of his championship lead after an off-track excursion at Mid-Ohio kicked him down to a 15th-place finish. Siegel leads with 244 points, but he is only 16 points ahead of Christian Rasmussen, who was third in the most recent race. Hunter McElrea's three consecutive top five finishes has McElrea 39 points behind Siegel in the championship. Louis Foster won at Mid-Ohio and Foster is up to fourth in the championship.
Jacob Abel rounds out the top five in the championship on 196 points. Reece Gold is sixth on 185 points. St. Petersburg winner Danial Frost has dropped to seventh in the championship on 177 points, only 12 points ahead of James Roe, Jr. Kyffin Simpson was runner-up at Mid-Ohio and Simpson is ninth in the championship on 162 points. Enaam Ahmed round outs the top ten on 150 points.
Ernie Francis, Jr. has 148 points, two points ahead of Matteo Nannini. It was announced earlier this week that Nannini and Juncos Hollinger Racing had parted ways. Matthew Brabham will drive the #75 JHR entry this week at Iowa.
Jagger Jones is on 145 points, five more than Christian Bogle. Jamie Chadwick sits on 119 points, one more than Rasmus Lindh and Josh Pierson sits on 68 points with only four starts.
Last year, McElrea won at Iowa after Linus Lundqvist blocked Matthew Brabham and Lundqvist was issued a three-position penalty. Rasmussen was elevated to second while Brabham took third. Abel, Frost and Francis, Jr. took sixth, seventh and eighth respectively in the final results.
The Indy Lights race will be at 11:10 a.m. ET on Saturday July 22 and is scheduled for 75 laps.
Fast Facts
Saturday's race will be the 11th IndyCar race to take place on July 22, and the first since Hélio Castroneves won at Edmonton. That was the final IndyCar race at Edmonton.
Saturday's race falls on Scott Dixon's 43rd birthday. Dixon is one of nine drivers to have won on their birthday. Dixon did it on July 22, 2007 at Mid-Ohio. Dixon could become the first driver to win multiple times on his birthday.
At 43 years old, Dixon would become the oldest birthday winner in IndyCar history. Nigel Mansell Bettenhausen is currently the oldest birthday winner when he won on his 40th birthday, August 8, 1993 at Loudon.
Sunday's race will be the ninth IndyCar race to take place on July 23, and the first since last year when Josef Newgarden won the first race of the 2022 Iowa doubleheader.
Sunday's race falls on Christian Lundgaard's 22nd birthday.
Lundgaard could become the tenth driver to win an IndyCar race on his birthday. The most recent birthday winner was Dan Wheldon at Iowa on June 22, 2008.
Lundgaard would become the youngest birthday winner. Sam Hornish, Jr. and Scott Dixon both won on their 27th birthdays. Hornish won at Kansas on July 2, 2006.
Iowa has never produced a first-time winner.
The average starting position of an Iowa winner is 7.411 with a median of fourth.
Only three Iowa races have been won from the front row (2016, 2020 race II, 2022 race I). Josef Newgarden won all three races.
Six Iowa races have been won from outside the top ten, most recently the first race in 2020, where Simon Pagenaud won from 23rd, the worst starting position for an Iowa winner.
Eight of 17 Iowa races have been won from outside a top five starting position.
The average number of lead changes in an Iowa race is 9.352 with a median of nine.
Eight Iowa races have had at least a double-digit number of lead changes, but only one in the last six Iowa races has had more than seven lead changes.
The average number of cautions in an Iowa race is 4.1764 with a median of four. The average number of caution laps is 46.117 with a median of 45.
The fewest cautions in an Iowa race is one, which was the first race in 2020, and it lasted 26 laps. The fewest number of caution laps in an Iowa race is 17, which were spread over two caution periods in 2018.
The most cautions in an Iowa race is seven, which occurred in 2014.
Predictions
Scott Dixon gets his second birthday victory, and Josef Newgarden wins the Sunday race. Álex Palou's championship lead will be less than 100 points after this weekend. No more than five drivers finish in the top ten of both Iowa races. Romain Grosjean will get at least one top ten result. At least one of the races will end with a green flag run greater than 150 laps. There will be a caution that involves at least four cars and it will happen in the first five laps of a race. Somebody will get his best finish of the season this weekend. Sleepers: David Malukas and Callum Ilott.
