Saturday, August 12, 2023

Morning Warm-Up: Brickyard Weekend 2023

For the first time since Saturday June 3, 2017 at Belle Isle, 104 races ago, Graham Rahal will lead the field to the green flag for an IndyCar race, as Rahal took pole position for the Gallagher Grand Prix from the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course with a time of 70.1132 seconds. Rahal has not won in 103 races, as he swept that Belle Isle weekend in 2017, winning the second race on Sunday June 4 from third on the grid. This is his second front row start of the season. He started second at Mid-Ohio last month. The only other time Rahal has started in the top five at the track was fourth in the July 2020 race. Rahal has finished seventh in four of the last seven IMS road course races. He has finished seventh in at least one IMS road course race in each of the last three seasons. 

Christian Lundgaard makes it an all-Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing front row, as the Danish driver was 0.1154 seconds off his American teammate. This is the second consecutive IMS road course race Lundgaard has started from the front row. He has started on one of the first two races in three of five appearances at the IMS road course. The Dane has finished on the lead lap in every road and street course race this season. 

For the first time this season, Alexander Rossi is the top Arrow McLaren qualifier, as Rossi takes third on the grid, 0.1800 seconds off Rahal's pole position time. It is Rossi's best start since Texas, where he started third. Rossi has nine top ten finishes in 12 IMS road course starts. He has finished on the podium in the last two races on the track, including his victory last July from second on the grid. 

Patricio O'Ward swept row two for Arrow McLaren. O'Ward was 0.2321 seconds off the fastest time in the final round. O'Ward enters this race with six consecutive top ten finishes, the longest top ten finish streak of his IndyCar career. O'Ward had two five-race streaks prior, from the Indianapolis 500 through Mid-Ohio in 2021 and then a streak that spanned the final three races of 2022 and the first two races of this season.

Devlin DeFrancesco gets his best IndyCar starting position in fifth, 0.2806 seconds behind Rahal. It is also DeFrancesco's first Fast Six appearance. The Canadian's previous best starting spot was ninth at Gateway last year. His previous best on a road or street course was 12th, which happened at Toronto last year and at Road America this past June. DeFrancesco is one of five drivers in IndyCar history to make 30 starts but not have a top ten finish. He has finished outside the top twenty in four consecutive races, the worst slump of his IndyCar career. 

Romain Grosjean makes it three consecutive of team pairs, as the Andretti Autosport driver ended up 0.0083 seconds off his teammate DeFrancesco on row three. This was Grosjean's sixth Fast Six appearance of the season, and his second consecutive. His average finish in his first five Fast Six appearances is 10.4 with a median of sixth. Since finishing runner-up in both IMS road course races in 2021, Grosjean's average finish in the last three races here is 14.667.

Marcus Armstrong fell 0.0008 seconds short of making it to the Fast Six for the first time in his career. Seventh is still the best starting position in Armstrong's IndyCar career. The New Zealander will be making his tenth career IndyCar start this weekend. Notable drivers to have their first career victory come in their tenth career start are Danny Sullivan (Cleveland 1984), Tony Stewart (Pikes Peak 1997) and Billy Boat (Texas 1998). 

For the fourth consecutive row, one team takes both positions. This time it is an all-Chip Ganassi Racing row four. Álex Palou missed out on the Fast Six for the second time in the last three road/street course races, and Palou will start eighth. The Catalan driver enters this race with an 84-point lead. If he takes the green flag, at worst, his championship lead leaving this race will be 36 points. 

For the eighth time in ten IMS road course appearances, Felix Rosenqvist starts in the top ten, and it will be from ninth in this race. The Swede has three consecutive top ten finishes on the IMS road course. At 9.9, this is one of four courses where Rosenqvist has an average finish inside the top ten. The other three tracks are Toronto (6.0), Portland (6.0) and Laguna Seca (9.3). 

Scott McLaughlin rounds out the top ten on the grid. McLaughlin was second at Nashville last week. There has not been a driver to win after finishing second in his previous start since Marcus Ericsson was second at Mid-Ohio and then won at Nashville in 2021. The most recent time tenth starting position won an IndyCar race was Ryan Hunter-Reay in the second Belle Isle race in 2018. 

Colton Herta was 0.0279 seconds off advancing from the first group in the first round of qualifying. However, grid penalties for some other competitors moves Herta to 11th starting position. This is the third time in the last four IMS road course races Herta has missed the second round of qualifying. The Californian has not won in his previous 25 starts. Prior to this slump, his longest winless drought was 14 races, which occurred during his rookie season. Herta has finished worse than his starting position in five of the last six races. The only time he finished better was going from 14th to third at Toronto. 

Linus Lundqvist's second IndyCar start will come from 12th position. Lundqvist was 0.0873 seconds shy of making it two-for-two on second round qualifying appearances in his IndyCar career, but benefits from a few others having grid penalties. The Swede won twice in four Indy Lights starts on the IMS road course. He was fifth in the other two races. 

The most recent IndyCar winner, Kyle Kirkwood, is starting from 13th. Kirkwood only won once in six Road to Indy starts at the IMS road course. That one victory was the second race of the May 2018 U.S. F2000 weekend. He has finished 26th, 23rd and 14th in his first three IndyCar races on this circuit.

Jack Harvey ended up eighth in round two of qualifying, but Harvey is one of three drivers to have a six-grid spot penalty due to using a fifth engine this season. Instead of starting eighth, Harvey will start 14th. The Briton has finished in the top ten of the 14th race of the season the last two years, including his most recent top ten finish, a tenth at Nashville last year. 

Scott Dixon takes 15th on the grid. This is the sixth time in the last seven IMS road course races Dixon has failed to advance from the first round of qualifying. Dixon is on the verge of making a record 319th consecutive start. When Jimmy Vasser surpassed Al Unser, Jr.'s record of 192 consecutive starts at Montreal in 2004, Vasser finished eighth. When Tony Kanaan surpassed Jimmy Vasser's record of 212 consecutive starts at Baltimore in 2013, Kanaan finished 15th.

For the first time Will Power did not make it out of the first round of qualifying at the IMS road course, and Power will start 16th. Power leads all drivers with five victories on the IMS road course. All five of those have come from the front row. Power has never gone more than three consecutive IMS road course races without a victory. He has finished third, third and 12th in the last three IMS road course races.

Marcus Ericsson made it two Chip Ganassi Racing cars to fail to advance from round one. Ericsson occupies 17th on the grid, the seventh time in ten IMS road course appearances he has not advance to round two in qualifying. Ericsson has six top ten finishes in nine IMS road course starts, but his only top five finish was fourth in the May 2022 race. Ericsson hasn't had a top five finish on a permanent road course since he was second at Road America in June 2022. 

Hélio Castroneves made it to the second round of qualifying for the first time this season, and he qualified 12th, but Castroneves is knocked down to 18th on the grid due to a six-grid spot penalty for using his fifth engine this season. The Brazilian had finished no worse than sixth in his first five IMS road course starts. He has finished outside of the top ten in his last seven, including six finishes outside the top fifteen. 

This will be Josef Newgarden's worst starting position of the season, as Newgarden ended up 19th in qualifying. He has finished outside the top ten in two of four permanent road course races this season. Newgarden was second at Road America in June and seventh in the IMS road course race in May. He has four top five finishes and seven top ten finishes in the last eight races at this track, but his only podium finish here was his victory in the first race of the Harvest Grand Prix weekend in October 2020. (Update: 9:04 a.m. ET. Newgarden will serve a six-spot grid for an unapproved engine change and he will start 25th). 

Rinus VeeKay rounds out the top twenty. VeeKay had three top five finishes in his first four IMS road course starts, including his victory in May 2021, and he had an average finish of 6.5. In his four IMS road course starts since that victory, VeeKay has an average finish of 16.5.

Ryan Hunter-Reay ended up 21st in qualifying, his third consecutive race starting outside the top twenty and fifth time in the seven races he has appeared for Ed Carpenter Racing. Hunter-Reay has finished outside the top ten in seven consecutive starts on the IMS road course. Hunter-Reay had finished no worse than 11th in his first four starts on the IMS road course, including two podium finishes. 

Santino Ferrucci takes 22rd on the grid, five spots better than where Ferrucci started at this track in May. He had two top ten finishes in his first two IMS road course starts. His average finish in his last three IMS road course starts is 16.667.

Agustín Canapino is the top Juncos Hollinger Racing qualifier for the fourth time this season, and for the second time in the last three races. Canapino takes the inside of row 12. The Argentine's only finish in the top twenty on a permanent road course was 19th at Road America in June. 

Sting Ray Robb was slowest in the first qualifying group, but a grid penalty bumps Robb up to 24th. This is only the second time Robb has been the top Dale Coyne Racing starter this season. The other race was Long Beach. The Idahoan completed only one lap back in the May IMS road course race after contact with his Dale Coyne Racing teammate David Malukas. 

Callum Ilott has his worst starting position on a road/street course this season in 25th. Ilott has finished better than his starting position in ten of 13 races this season. The good news is he can only go back two positions from here. In Ilott's previous six starts this season from outside the top twenty, he finishes on average 9.833 spots better than where he started.

Benjamin Pedersen starts 26th, his third time starting outside the top 25 in the last four races. Pedersen has finished outside the top twenty in five consecutive races. He was 24th in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis in May after starting 23rd.

After starting three consecutive races in the top ten, David Malukas rolls off from 27th position in this race. Malukas qualified 21st, but he has a six-grid spot penalty for using his fifth engine this season. Malukas is coming off his four finish outside the top 25 this season after an engine fire and subsequent rear wing failure took him out of the Nashville race. Malukas has yet to finish in the top ten in a IMS road course start. 

USA's coverage of the Gallagher Grand Prix from Indianapolis Motor Speedway will begin at 2:00 p.m. ET with green flag scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET. The race is scheduled for 85 laps.