The tenth and 11th rounds of the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season will be the first of two doubleheader weekends of the season, this one from Iowa Speedway. This is the start of a stretch that will see six oval races in the final eight races of the season. With seven oval races on the 2024 calendar, it is the most oval representation since the 2011 season. With Patricio O'Ward victory at Mid-Ohio, Chevrolet and Honda continue to alternate victories, and dating back to last season we have gone ten races without either manufacturer winning consecutive races. Iowa is a track that heavily favors that trend ending.
Coverage
Time: Coverage for race one begins at 8:00 p.m. ET on Saturday July 13 with green flag scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Coverage for race two begins at 12:00 p.m. ET with green flag scheduled for 12:15 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee, Georgia Henneberry and Dillon Welch will work pit lane.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee, Georgia Henneberry and Dillon Welch will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
First Practice: 3:35 p.m. ET (2 hours and 15 minutes)
Saturday:
Qualifying: 3:45 p.m. ET
Race: 8:05 p.m. ET (250 laps)
Sunday:
Race: 12:15 p.m. ET (250 laps)
Sunday:
Race: 12:15 p.m. ET (250 laps)
Josef Newgarden is the Man to Beat
No driver is happier to have Iowa as a doubleheader than Josef Newgarden.
The Tennessean has won six times at the circuit, including four of the last five races. Newgarden swept the doubleheader last year, leading 341 of the combined 500 laps. Newgarden has led over 100 laps in nine of the last 11 Iowa races, and he has led over 200 laps in six of those races.
Newgarden has led 1,847 laps at Iowa, by far the most all-time at the circuit. He has led 49.77% of the laps he has run at the track. He is 1,464 laps clear of the next closest active drivers in laps led at the 7/8-mile oval. Will Power has led 383 laps. The only other active driver to lead over 100 laps at Iowa is Scott Dixon on 131.
Newgarden is the hottest oval driver at the moment with nine victories in the last 12 oval races. Newgarden's Indianapolis 500 victory in May made this his ninth consecutive season with an oval victory, matching the record that Bobby Unser and Johnny Rutherford holds. Newgarden has won multiple oval races in four of the last five seasons. He has won at least three oval races in the last two seasons.
With 16 career oval victories, Newgarden is tied for 13th-most oval victories in IndyCar history with Dario Franchitti. The only driver entered this weekend with more oval victories is Scott Dixon with 25. Another weekend sweep would put Newgarden in a tie for 12th all-time with Hélio Castroneves.
Iowa might not be coming at a better time for Newgarden, as he enters this weekend tenth in the championship and he has finished outside the top fifteen in six of nine races this season. Newgarden has finished worse than his starting position in seven of nine races in 2024. In four of those races, he has started in the top five. In the last two races, Newgarden has spun off course while running in a top ten position.
Newgarden has finished outside the top twenty in six of the last 13 races dating back to last season. Prior to this stretch, Newgarden had only six finishes outside the top twenty in his prior 117 starts. During that stretch, he had a run of 67 consecutive races finishing inside the top twenty.
Among full-time drivers, Newgarden's average finish of 15.111 ranks 15th, behind the likes of Santino Ferrucci, Romain Grosjean and Graham Rahal. Newgarden is on pace to have his worst average finish in a season since his rookie year in 2012 when his average was 18.2. Prior to this year, he has averaged a top ten finish in eight consecutive seasons.
Newgarden has not had consecutive top ten finishes since he had four consecutive top five finishes last year over Toronto, the Iowa doubleheader and Nashville. A brush with the wall left him with a 25th-place finish at Gateway last year, but Newgarden has six top five finishes in his last seven oval starts, and he has 15 top five finishes in the 21 oval races since the start of the 2020 season.
New Surface
If there is anything that could trip Newgarden up, it would be a change to Iowa Speedway, and there is a change at Iowa.
Earlier this year, the track re-paved sections of the circuit in preparations for the inaugural NASCAR Cup Series race held at the track last month. It was deemed the surface was not suitable ahead of that race. However, due to a constrained schedule, a partial re-pave was only completed. The bottom lanes in each set of turns were re-paved while the outside lane along the wall remained untouched. Each straightaway was also not re-paved.
This was the first surface work ever done to the short track. The track had been untouched since it opened in 2006.
IndyCar did run a test at Iowa last month, which doubled as another test session for the hybrid system. All 27 entries participated in the test. Colton Herta topped the test with an unofficial lap at 16.954 seconds. Scott McLaughlin was second, only 0.017 seconds off Herta. Honda took four of the top six positions. Marcus Ericsson was third ahead of Graham Rahal and Patricio O'Ward. Scott Dixon was sixth.
All of the top six exceeded the single-lap track record, which Hélio Castroneves set in 2014. Castroneves ran a lap at 17.2283 seconds on the second lap of his qualifying run, an average speed of 186.809 mph. Scott Dixon holds the two-lap qualifying records at an average speed of 186.256 mph, which was also set in 2014. The fastest race lap occurred in 2008 when Ryan Briscoe ran at 17.4908 seconds, 184.005 mph.
There were a handful of incidents in the test session. Josef Newgarden made contact with the wall while Pietro Fittipaldi, Romain Grosjean and Will Power all had accidents.
The new asphalt allowed for greater corner speeds but put more physical stress on the drivers. Tire degradation was not significant during the test, but conditions were ideal. This test took place in conditions that were about 75º F. Forecast for this weekend will have warmer temperatures. Highs will be pushing 90º F on Saturday with it climbing to about 92º F on Sunday. Higher temperatures are believed will lead to more tire wear, and could open up the racetrack beyond one lane at the bottom of the track.
In light of the recent Iowa test, IndyCar announced it would reduce downforce in hopes of lowering corner speed. Teams will be limited on rear wing level to the third of six possible levels, and teams must run a wicker. This should be a 10% reduction in downforce, removing 450 pounds. This should also increase tear wear.
Iowa has been a lively race lately. Last year's two races had 1,502 passes and 1,168 passes respectively. Each race exceeded 300 passes for position. Five of the last nine Iowa races have exceeded 700 total passes, including the last four races, and all nine Iowa races since 2017 have had at least 200 passes for positions. The last nine Iowa races have averaged 807.667 total passes and 276.888 passes for position.
This will be the second consecutive race weekend where IndyCar is racing on a track with new surface. Mid-Ohio had been completely re-paved prior to this year's race. In recent years, IndyCar has also raced on new surfaces at Road America and Laguna Seca, which coincidentally were the two race weekends prior to Mid-Ohio. Both those circuits were re-paved ahead of IndyCar's visits last year.
Oval Records
Josef Newgarden is understandably the big favorite at Iowa this weekend as he has won nine of the last 12 oval races, but how does the rest of the grid fare on ovals?
You might be surprised to learn that Newgarden does not have the best average finish at Iowa Speedway. Among drivers with at least three Iowa starts, Patricio O'Ward has the best average finish. In six starts, O'Ward averages a 5.333 finish with a victory, three podium finishes, four top five finishes and five top ten finishes. His worst finish at this track is 12th.
Since O'Ward entered IndyCar in 2019, he has the second-best average finish in oval races. In 21 starts, his average finish is 5.524, behind only Newgarden's 5.231.
Only three other drivers since 2019 have an average oval finish inside the top ten. Scott Dixon has an average of 7.115, Scott McLaughlin's average is 8.733, and Álex Palou is on the nose averaging a tenth-place finish in 21 career oval starts.
Dixon is one of the three oval winners not named Josef Newgarden in the last dozen oval races. Dixon won at Gateway last year, the third time in the last four seasons he has won an oval race. Iowa remains one of the few places Dixon has not won at in IndyCar. In 19 starts, he has four podium finishes, 11 top five finishes and 16 top ten finishes at Iowa. Dixon enters this weekend with seven consecutive top ten finish at this circuit.
McLaughlin's oval record is something of legend. In 15 oval starts, he has five podium finishes, eight top five finishes and 11 top ten finishes. He has four consecutive top ten finishes in oval races dating back to last season. He has started on pole position for the last two oval races. In four Iowa starts, McLaughlin has two podium finishes and three top five finishes.
Palou is not thought of as a strong oval driver because, like McLaughlin, Palou has not won an oval race yet, but he has seven consecutive top ten finishes in oval races dating back to Gateway 2022. Removing the six oval races with Dale Coyne Racing, Palou has six top five finishes and 13 top ten finishes in 15 oval starts with Chip Ganassi Racing.
It hasn't just been Josef Newgarden dominance, it has been Chevrolet dominance on ovals. Since 2020, Chevrolet has won 14 of 21 oval races. Chevrolet has won seven consecutive Iowa races, nine of the last ten Iowa races, and 11 of 14 Iowa races since the return of engine competition in 2012.
At one point, Andretti Global was the king of the cornfield in Iowa, having won seven of the first nine Iowa races, including six consecutive from 2010 through 2015. Since that streak, Team Penske has matched Andretti's mark for most Iowa victories, as both teams enter with seven wins at this track. Andretti Global has one top five finish in the last ten Iowa races. Ryan Hunter-Reay was third in the 2017 race. The Andretti organization has gone 27 consecutive oval races without a victory. Its most recent oval win was Pocono 2018.
Since that 2018 Pocono race, Honda has won eight oval races. Ganassi is responsible for five of them, four with Dixon and one with current Andretti Global driver Marcus Ericsson, who famously won the 2022 Indianapolis 500. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing has won two oval races since then, including the 2020 Indianapolis 500 with Takuma Sato. RLLR has never won at Iowa, and it only has three podium finishes and six top five finishes in 30 entries at the track.
The other Honda victory was Meyer Shank Racing at the 2021 Indianapolis 500. The good news for MSR is it has David Malukas in its lineup, a driver that has an average finish of 10.7 in ten career oval starts. Malukas has finished eighth in the second race of the Iowa doubleheader the last two years. Felix Rosenqvist's oval results have been spotty. In 26 oval starts, Rosenqvist has an average finish of 15.923. He has only two top five finishes on ovals in his career, including a fourth last year in the second Iowa race.
A Year Since a First-Time Winner
Come Tuesday, we will celebrate the one-year anniversary of Christian Lundgaard's first career IndyCar victory, which occurred in Toronto. If there is no first-time winner this weekend at Iowa, IndyCar will go more a year between first-time winners in the series. There has been at least one first-time winner the last five seasons and there are only eight races left for that first-time winner. There is only one issue this weekend. There has never been a first-time winner at Iowa. It should also be noted the next first-time winner will be the 300th winner in IndyCar history.
Twelve of the 27 drivers entered this weekend have not won an IndyCar race yet in their careers.
The top driver in the championship without an IndyCar victory is Santino Ferrucci. Ferrucci has six top ten finishes this season, including in the last two races. He has not had three consecutive top ten finishes since a four-race run in 2021 as a part-time driver with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing.
Romain Grosjean will be making his 57th career start this weekend, and he remains in search for that first career victory. Grosjean's five runner-up finishes without a victory in his career has the Frenchman tied for the third-most runner-up finishes all-time without a victory with Raul Boesel and Russ Snowberger. Only Vitor Meira (eight) and Geoff Brabham (six) have more runner-up finishes without a victory.
Marcus Armstrong will be making his first appearance at Iowa this weekend, and it could be the place where Armstrong picks up his first career victory. The New Zealander only completed six laps in his first oval start at the Indianapolis 500 in May. An engine failure ended his race before it even got started.
Along with Armstrong, his rookie teammates Linus Lundqvist and Kyffin Simpson are also making their first Iowa starts in IndyCar. Both drivers did compete at Iowa in Indy Lights. Lundqvist lost a victory in the 2022 race after a penalty for blocking relegated him to fourth. Simpson was 11th in 2022, the final car on the lead lap, and last year his race ended after only completing three laps after contact with Danial Frost.
Pietro Fittipaldi isn't only looking for his first career victory at Iowa. Fittipaldi is looking for his first career top ten finish on an oval. His best oval finish in seven oval starts was 11th at Gateway in 2018. He has finished outside the top twenty in five of his seven oval starts, including 32nd in the Indianapolis 500 in May.
Agustín Canapino makes it both Juncos Hollinger Racing drivers in search for a first career victory at Iowa. Canapino was 16th and 26th in the two Iowa races last year. He brushed the wall in the second race and had to stop for lengthy repairs.
Other drivers going for their first career victory this weekend are Sting Ray Robb, Nolan Siegel, David Malukas, Jack Harvey and Katherine Legge, who will drive the #51 Honda for Dale Coyne Racing.
The last five first-time winners in IndyCar won at a road or street course. The most recent first-time winner on an oval was Patricio O'Ward at Texas in 2021. Of the 17 first-time winners in the DW12-era, the only other one that won on an oval was Alexander Rossi in the 2016 Indianapolis 500. If you go back to since reunification, out of 22 first-time winners, the only others that came on ovals were Danica Patrick at Motegi in 2008, Ryan Briscoe at Milwaukee in 2008, and Ed Carpenter at Kentucky in 2011.
Indy Lights
Iowa marks the tenth of 14 rounds in the 2024 Indy Lights season, but it is the first oval race of the calendar for the junior series. Four of the final five races will be ovals for Indy Lights.
Louis Foster increased his championship lead at Mid-Ohio with a runner-up finish, and on 386 points, Foster is now 41 points ahead of Jacob Abel, who was third at Mid-Ohio, Abel’s third time finishing third in the last four races.
Caio Collet picked up his first career Indy Lights victory at Mid-Ohio. It was Collet's third consecutive podium finishes, and now third in the championship, the Brazilian is 71 points behind Foster with five races remaining. A fourth-place finish has Callum Hedge on 220 points in fourth.
Reece Gold moved up to fifth on 212 points while Jamie Chadwick sits a point behind Gold in sixth. Myles Rowe finished 17th or worse for the third time in the last four races after he was 19th at Mid-Ohio. Rowe is down in seventh on 203 points.
Salvador de Alba takes eighth in the championship on 181 points, three more than James Roe, Jr., Jonathan Browne and Christian Bogle, who are in a three-wide tie for ninth.
Abel started on pole position last year at Iowa and finished second to Christian Rasmussen. Josh Pierson is the next best returning driver as Pierson was sixth last year ahead of Foster in seventh.
Indy Lights will race at 2:05 p.m. ET on Saturday July 13. The race is scheduled for 100 laps.
Fast Facts
Saturday's race will be the seventh IndyCar race to take place on July 13 and the first since Scott Dixon won the first race of the 2013 Toronto doubleheader.
Sunday's race will be the tenth IndyCar race to take place on July 14 and the first since Simon Pagenaud won at Toronto in 2019.
Scott Dixon has won twice on July 14, first in 2007 at Nashville, and second in 2013 at Toronto, the second race of the doubleheader.
This Iowa weekend is the second doubleheader to occur on July 13-14 after the 2013 Toronto doubleheader, which Scott Dixon swept.
Those Toronto victories were the 31st and 32nd victories in Dixon's career. He has won 26 races in the 11 years since the Toronto doubleheader.
Only once has a first-time winner occurred on July 13. Ted Horn's first career victory was on July 13, 1947 at the Bainbridge Fairgrounds in Bainbridge, Ohio. It was the only IndyCar race ever held at Bainbridge.
Four times has a first-time winner occurred on July 14. Reeves Dutton and Ira Vail each had their first career victories occur on July 14, 1917 at the Twin City Motor Speedway in Minneapolis. Eddie Sachs' first career victory was on July 14, 1956 at Lakewood Speedway outside of Atlanta. Adrián Fernández's first career victory was on July 14, 1996 in Toronto.
The average starting position of an Iowa winner is 7.157 with a median of fourth.
Only three Iowa races have been won from the front row (2016, 2020 race II, 2022 race I). Josef Newgarden won all three races.
Six of 19 Iowa races have been won from third starting position, including Josef Newgarden in the first race of last year's doubleheader.
Six Iowa races have been won from outside the top ten, most recently the first race in 2020, where Simon Pagenaud won from 23rd, the worst starting position for an Iowa winner.
Nine of 19 Iowa races have been won from outside a top five starting position, most recently the second race last tear, where Josef Newgarden won from seventh.
The average number of lead changes in an Iowa race is 9.052 with a median of nine.
Eight Iowa races have had at least a double-digit number of lead changes, but only two in the last eight Iowa races have had more than seven lead changes.
The average number of cautions in an Iowa race is 3.947 with a median of four. The average number of caution laps is 43.947 with a median of 44.
The fewest cautions in an Iowa race is one, which occurred in the first race in 2020 and the first race last year. The 2020 caution lasted 26 laps, but last year's one caution period in the first race lasted 14 laps, the fewest number of caution laps in an Iowa race. The previous low was 17 cautions laps, which were spread over two caution periods in 2018.
The most cautions in an Iowa race is seven, which occurred in 2014.
Predictions
Scott McLaughlin and Colton Herta split the Iowa races. Josef Newgarden will have a top ten finish in one of the races but he will finish outside the top ten of the other. Álex Palou's championship lead will remain within ten points of his current 48-point gap over second. RLLR will have a grand total of one top ten finisher over the two races. Alexander Rossi will be the top McLaren driver in at least one race and the worst McLaren finisher in the other. There will be no loose tires. There will be no disqualifications. Dale Coyne Racing will complete fewer than 980 combined laps this weekend. There will be plenty of noise about ticket prices, concerts, doubleheaders, the tight turnaround between races. No one will be happy. Everyone will find flaws. Sleeper: David Malukas.
