Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...
This was a brilliant weekend for motorsports. MX-5 Cup's race at Martinsville happened, and Jared Thomas won the exhibition race. Blood boiled in the Formula One world as those two world championships got a little tighter in Mexico City. There were six legitimate contenders for the NASCAR Cup Series victory at Homestead. Weather added suspense for MotoGP in Buriram. Supercars is set up for a two-driver title fight in Adelaide next month. This is the final weekend of October, and as I finish up the IndyCar Wrap-Ups this week, I thought about how much has changed in a short period of time, and if we saw this coming.
Did We Expect to be Here Four Years Ago?
The end of this October has not featured any on-track action that means anything for IndyCar (testing doesn't count), but at this time four years ago, we were only days removed from an IndyCar finale that felt relieving. IndyCar made it through 2020 with a respectable season of 14 races held over the first weekend in June through the final Sunday in October, and there was a championship battle to boot.
Despite a number of canceled events, a number of delayed events, doubleheaders galore and an Indianapolis 500 in August, IndyCar made it and we could feel satisfied. We saw a championship that went to the wire despite the uncertain timeframe for the final race and that race not featuring double points. It was also a surprise this championship was not claimed early after Scott Dixon opened the season with three consecutive victories. Josef Newgarden put up a fight to defend his championship but ended a valiant second behind Dixon as two of IndyCar's best kept each other honest to the final lap at St. Petersburg.
It was the fourth consecutive season one of either Dixon or Newgarden won the championship. After this one, Dixon found himself one championship away from tying A.J. Foyt's record of seven titles. Newgarden fell just short of a third title, and his second consecutive.
In those days after the 2020 season, we all had a thought of what would happen in the future and what the next four seasons would look like. Did any of us expect it playing out this way?
After Dixon and Newgarden alternated titles, after Colton Herta was third in the 2020 championship in his sophomore season directly ahead of Patricio O'Ward in his sophomore season, and after Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing had its drivers finish sixth and seventh in the championship and win the Indianapolis 500, did we expect the last four seasons would see Álex Palou win three titles in four year, Scott McLaughlin become a legitimate title contender and a threat on all circuits, Meyer Shank Racing have an Indianapolis 500 victory, and RLLR to be unable to put a driver better than 18th in the championship?
Honestly, I cannot say I did.
Thinking about how the last few seasons have played out, no one can say they saw it playing out exactly this way.
Looking back on what I wrote after the 2020 season, at no point did I write about Palou winning the championship the following year let alone winning three of the next four.
In the Dale Coyne Racing wrap-up that year, I acknowledged how a handful of results did not reflect Palou's ability and he showed something was there for his sophomore season, but I also said he was streaky and Coyne should want someone who is a step better. What a foolish thought that appears to be in hindsight?
When it came to looking ahead for Chip Ganassi Racing, I compared Palou's rookie seasons to Marcus Ericsson's rookie season in 2019, the year before Ericsson joined Ganassi. I even said, "no one is expecting Palou to immediately be a race winner."
Oops.
That is exactly what Palou did, winning his first race with Chip Ganassi Racing, and the rest is history.
But in 2020, I think what was written were realistic expectations for Palou, a driver who had a podium finish as a rookie but only three top ten finishes in 14 races. Palou wasn't even Rookie of the Year. He was 61 points off Rinus VeeKay, who had a podium finish of his own, three top five finishes and a pole position. Palou scored 62 points fewer than his Coyne teammates Santino Ferrucci and 63 points fewer than Ericsson in his sophomore season. Thinking Palou could replicate Ericsson's sophomore output in his sophomore season wasn't a crazy thought. It was sound thinking. After all, we had not seen a sophomore champion since Sébastien Bourdais in 2004, and that was during the split when neither IRL nor Champ Car grid was not at its strongest.
More oxygen was spent on Jimmie Johnson joining Ganassi and IndyCar than Palou in those days, and that was understandable. A seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion was joining IndyCar. I don't think anyone thought Johnson would be a contender running only the road and street course races, but it was a seismic shift the likes IndyCar had not seen since Nigel Mansell in 1993 even if we all knew the results would not be spectacular and even if we knew Johnson would not be in IndyCar for long. It was apparent then that it would be a two-year experiment, and it didn't get extended for a third year.
But it is more than Palou. Could we really have expected McLaughlin to be a championship contender in 2024? At Team Penske, anyone can be a contender, but McLaughlin was only days removed from his IndyCar debut. Delayed due to the pandemic, McLaughlin jumped in cold and months after he showed up at preseason testing and ran well, but testing is different than a race weekend. McLaughlin showed growing pains, but that was expected then. He still was going to have Newgarden and Will Power. To be the best in IndyCar, McLaughlin would at least have to beat those two, a mighty ask of any driver and even more substantial for someone who was not coming from a single-seater background.
At the conclusion of 2020, when considering who would be the next new champion, the two title-less drivers in the top five in the championship were the leading contenders. Colton Herta turned a corner. Patricio O'Ward looked very competitive. Four years later and they still combine for zero championships. They have won their races and had their fair days, but each has shown flaws. Both were winless in 2023. Too often do Herta and O'Ward show vulnerability, something we rarely see from Palou.
No titles in the last four seasons does not mean it is over for Herta and O'Ward. They are 24 years old and 25 years old respectively. They each have a lot of time left. As crazy as it seems to write this, but there is a good chance both will win a championship in their IndyCar careers. Maybe within the next four seasons, maybe in the next decade, maybe one has to wait until the twilight of a career at 43 years of age, but the last four years show how rare things can go the way we expect it.
At the end of 2008, did we really expect Will Power to become the all-time leader in pole positions, one of the top five drivers in victories and have two championships with an Indianapolis 500 victory? Did we think Ryan Hunter-Reay would win a title before Hélio Castroneves and have an Indianapolis 500 victory of his own? Did we think Castroneves would end his career without a title? Did any of us see Simon Pagenuad becoming a champion and Indianapolis 500 winner? Were we sure Dario Franchitti was about to win three consecutive championships?
The answer is probably no to all of that. Heck, at the end of 2020, I don't think anyone was certain we were going to see Castroneves win a fifth Indianapolis 500. It only took seven months for that to be proven wrong. Four years ago, I thought Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing would be fine. Whoops!
As much as we expect and predict for the future at one moment in time, it rarely ever goes exactly as we envision in our heads, even if these thoughts are led with reason. Emotions can get in the way, but if a person remains true to empirical data to set expectations, we are doing it in the most honest way possible, using what we have seen to set the bar for the future. Anyone can throw something crazy at the wall but we all know in that moment it will not stick, but a person sitting down and crafting a logical set of events for the future can still be equally as wrong even if this person has generated significantly more thought.
And then that leads to where we are now. Four years later and Palou is a three-time IndyCar champion. Nobody had that coming on October 28, 2020. Nothing had happened to lead us to believe that the first half of this decade would become known for the Catalan driver's dominance, and here we are.
We are all sitting here thinking we know exactly what will occur between now and October 28, 2028, but we really have no clue. A few things will happen that make sense, but there are plenty of surprising things to come, no matter how much thought we put into what we think will come next.
Champion From the Weekend
Ai Ogura clinched the Moto2 World Championship with a runner-up finish at Buriram.
Winners From the Weekend
You know about Jared Thomas, but did you know...
Carlos Sainz, Jr. won the Mexican Grand Prix, his second victory of the season.
Francesco Bagnaia won MotoGP's Thai Grand Prix, his ninth victory of the season. Enea Bastianini won the sprint race. Arón Canet won the Moto2 race, his third victory of the season. David Alonso won the Moto3 race, his 12th victory of the season.
Tyler Reddick won the NASCAR Cup race from Homestead, his third victory of the season. Austin Hill won the Grand National Series race, his fourth victory of the season. Grant Enfinger won the Truck race, his second consecutive victory.
Cam Waters and Brodie Kostecki split the Supercars races from Surfers Paradise.
Coming Up This Weekend
The FIA World Endurance Championship finale from Bahrain.
MotoGP's penultimate round from Malaysia.
NASCAR's penultimate round from Martinsville.
Super GT's penultimate round from Motegi.
The Brazilian Grand Prix with a sprint race.
