It might feel early to look ahead to the 2025 IndyCar season, but we are within two months of the opening race from St. Petersburg, and with an expcted 11 teams and 27 full-time entries, we must start early if we want everyone to have proper coverage. Also, why wait and cram 11 previews in over the final two weeks?
We start with Ed Carpenter Racing, a team that did not crack the top ten in the championship in 2024. ECR will see a change behind the scenes that might almost be bigger than then changes on track. ECR has a new co-owner with Ted Gelov, CEO of Heartland Food Products Group which produces Splenda, joining the team. Gelov brings a financial boost that could go a long way for a team that has only won once in the last eight seasons.
Along with a new co-owner, ECR has hired Alexander Rossi, who has not won in the last two seasons, while Christian Rasmussen will move to the #21 Chevrolet in a full-time effort. Ed Carpenter will step back to an Indianapolis 500-only entry.
At First Glance... Uncertain parties are coming together
ECR has not quite returned to the heights since Josef Newgarden left after the 2016 season. It had a brief spell in 2021 where it looked like the team was back to be a regular contender. The last three years proved that was not the case.
Alexander Rossi has gone from a perennial championship contender to an afterthought, tossed aside late in the silly season by McLaren and left uncertain of who would hire him.
This is a coming together of two uncertain parties hoping for better but neither should be all that confident either can provide for the other.
Ed Carpenter Racing has not had a driver finish better than 12th in the championship in the last eight seasons. Rossi has not finished better than ninth in the championship in any of the last five seasons. It feels lined up for a team either to receive a small boost and get over a hump or a driver to take a small step back but one that would still be classified as a decline.
After running Rinus VeeKay for five consecutive seasons and VeeKay finishing between 12th and 14th in the championship every year, we know ECR's level. It is a mid-pack team that cannot quite breakthrough and be a regular contender, but it is not a cellar dweller either. It is a good team in a world where good is fine but not enough. Bringing in Rossi is not enough of a change to think ECR can move up to the next level.
The team is open to changes. It started last year when Ed Carpenter removed himself from the final three oval races for Rasmussen as the team hoped the #20 Chevrolet would remain in one of the 22 Leader Circle positions. Rasmussen did enough to keep the team in the money, and the Dane had a few strong runs, though his rookie season had a number of rookie moves.
ECR has kept Rasmussen onboard and for all the limitations we have seen from Rossi, he is still a veteran driver who can be quick and get respectable results. Is this enough while against other teams who are also making steps forward?
It has been 47 races since ECR's most recent podium finish, and the team is not the oval powerhouse it once was.
The one hope for this team is its best track is also Rossi's best track. Both are frontrunners every year at the Indianapolis 500. ECR might not have shown the same speed as in previous years, but it is still at the front each May. The same goes for Rossi. He is in the picture every year.
That is only one race, and living boom or bust is a fool's errand, more likely to end in disappointment than glory. ECR must be better everywhere. Results must improve everywhere. Rossi might be a step in the right direction at both the one race the team is aiming for and at all the others it cannot afford to ignore. For both sides, there is a hint of desperation. Perhaps it will be enough to create something special.
2024 Ed Carpenter Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 5th (Iowa I)
Poles: 0
Best Start: 7th (St. Petersburg, Indianapolis 500)
Championship Finishes: 13th (Rinus VeeKay), 22nd (Christian Rasmussen), 32nd (Ed Carpenter)
Alexander Rossi - #20 Ed Carpenter Racing Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
2,471: Days between Rossi’s most recent oval victory (August 19, 2018 at Pocono) and this year’s first oval race, the Indianapolis 500.
5: Times leading ten laps or more in the last 59 road/street course races (since Toronto 2019)
12.111: Average entrants’ championship finish for the best Ed Carpenter Racing entry since 2016.
-18: Difference in Rossi’s total podium finishes over the last four seasons (six) in IndyCar compared to his total podium finishes over his first five seasons (24).
What does a championship season look like for him?
ECR's oval strength returning and that speed we saw at Indianapolis in 2018 and 2019 being underneath him and enough to dethrone Team Penske and company to win the "500."
Off the back of strong oval form where Rossi wins four races and finishes no worse than fifth, his road and street course results are solid. They are not spectacular every time out and there will be three or four races where he gets stuck in the middle and either finishes 12th or 13th or works hard enough to eek out a top ten finish, but on more weekends than not he is a second round qualifier and it puts him in a good position.
Strategy does not get the better of him and it actually lifts him forward, turning what looks like a fourth or fifth into a podium results and a seventh or eighth in a top five finish. He doesn't win on a road or street course, but combined with his four victories Rossi has three more podium finishes, and along with top five finishes in all six oval races, he adds another five from the 11 road and street course events. He is running at the end of every race and finishes all of them in the top fifteen.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Rossi essentially has replaced Rinus VeeKay but will take over the #20 Chevrolet instead. There were only three positions between the two drivers in the 2024 championship. They were essentially living in the same neighborhood, only 66 addresses apart as Rossi scored that many points more than VeeKay, and Rossi did it with one fewer start to his name.
Rossi had one podium finish, three top five finishes and ten top ten finishes. VeeKay went zero, one and seven in those categories.
Paper is saying Rossi should make ECR a little better. Rossi was with McLaren last year, but he has been ninth or tenth with multiple organizations now. A little better with ECR does not necessarily equal ninth or tenth in the championship.
It will be close, but the only place I can see Rossi winning at is Indianapolis, and that is more down to questioning how consistent ECR can be across the board.
A realistic season is Rossi will have a few impressive days, but he will go through some days where the pace is not there and it will be a slog to try and get close to the top ten. He is looking at two or three top five finishes, eight to ten top ten finishes and possibly breaking into the top ten or coming up just short.
Christian Rasmussen - #21 Ed Carpenter Racing Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
6: Lead lap finishes in 13 starts last season.
23.75: Average starting position in Rasmussen’s four oval starts.
18.333: Average entrants’ championship finish for the second-best Ed Carpenter Racing entry since 2016.
What does a championship season look like for him?
Rasmussen bonding with Rossi and their partnership producing improvements we did not think were possible for this organization. If Rasmussen is competing for a championship than Rossi would be up there as well.
It is a season where Rasmussen is not making mistakes and he is not running into other drivers. He is mostly following in Rossi's footsteps on ovals, but there are a few races that break his way and he wins at least twice. He is better on road and street courses, but the results are not spectacular, like Rossi's best case scenario. The difference is Rasmussen catches the breaks. He wins two races because of timely cautions that put him to the front during a pit cycle and he runs away from there.
Those two victories are his only top five finishes on road/street courses in the season, but four victories with seven total top five finishes and 13 top ten finishes is enough for a stunning championship in a season where no other driver wins more than twice, and Rossi also finishes in the championship top five.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
In his 14 starts last year, Rasmussen averaged 11.642 points per start. That would have put him 19th in 2024, still well behind Graham Rahal in 18th and a little ahead of Pietro Fittipaldi.
The Danish driver had one top ten finish all season. He had five finishes outside the top twenty. He could step over the line and cost himself and he did not make many friends last year. His qualifying pace was not all that good, and outside of the Indianapolis 500 and maybe Mid-Ohio, there wasn't really a race where you felt all that impressed watching Rasmussen.
One top ten is still a low total and he should improve from that, but I don't see a big leap. While VeeKay could not get out of the 12th-14th rut, the second ECR entry wasn't doing much better than 17th or 18th. That actually feels perfect for Rasmussen. ECR might have hired two drivers perfectly suited to finish where the team has been finishing all along.
I think we will see improvements from Rasmussen, but not see him challenge Rossi for best in the stable. Three or four top ten finishes feels like the limit. Better, but not all that great either.
The 2025 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 2 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage of the season opener will begin at noon Eastern Time.
