This was more than just a win from pole position. With the alternate tire compound not expected to last long and this being a 90-lap race with large pit windows, drivers were going to be stopping early. Majority of the grid started on the alternate tire, Kirkwood included. When others came early, Kirkwood was put in a tough spot. He could not risk staying out too long. After seven laps, Kirkwood was one of the last cars to stop and remove the alternate tire. It did not backfire. Kirkwood maintained the advantage, but it set up Álex Palou to be on his heels for the entire race.
For essentially 82 laps, Kirkwood had the best driver in the series breathing down his neck. Each pit cycle, the pressure would be on Kirkwood and his team. There was no wiggle room for a long stop or a slow in-lap. Kirkwood had to be pinpoint perfect, and he was. Once Kirkwood emerged from the pit lane ahead of Palou with 25 laps remaining, it was game over.
Kirkwood set sail and earned his third career victory.
There are a number of drivers who would be put in that spot and blink with Palou in the rearview mirrors. This was an outstanding performance who probably does not get the appreciation he deserves. We have seen drivers struggle with Palou behind them, especially when Palou can make up time late in stints. We saw Colton Herta throw away a Long Beach race in the same circumstances. Herta had Palou and Josef Newgarden pressuring him and Herta lost out in a pit cycle. Then Herta went over the limit trying to leap-frog back ahead, and Herta hit the barrier to end his race.
If you put Herta in Kirkwood's position today, I don't think Herta wins this race, and everyone believes Herta is destined to be in Formula One. Kirkwood hasn't been in this position often, but for the limited experience, he hasn't blinked when many would put money on him faltering.
There is a long season ahead of us, but last season Kirkwood rarely put a wheel wrong. He wasn't quite in the top five speed on a regular basis. If the speed is there, Kirkwood is dangerous.
2. It isn't three-for-three for Álex Palou, but a 1-1-2 to start the season is going to be difficult to overcome for anybody. Until Palou starts tripping over himself, it will be on the rest of the field to beat him. It will require someone over the final 14 races beating Palou at least 11 or 12 times to think about the championship going elsewhere.
Palou isn't going to make mistakes. He isn't going to make a massive error when running in a podium spot. He also isn't going to have a weekend where he cannot run better than 13th. Every weekend he will be on the fringe of the top five. Most of those weekends, he will just be on the inside. It will require someone remarkable to beat Palou, especially after this start to the Catalan's season.
3. In terms of strategy, starting on either compound worked. The top two started on the alternate tire and ran fewer than eight laps in their opening stints. Six cars started this race on the primary tire. Four of those drivers finished in the top ten. Five of those drivers finished in the top 11. Starting on the primary tire and running the alternate tire mid-race was not a bad choice.
Case in point, Christian Lundgaard, who went from 12th to third. Lundgaard did 28 laps to open the race on the primary tire. Lundgaard was speaking about this being a two-stop race beforehand. I don't think that was ever in play with the alternate compound, but Lundgaard did not have a dire situation mid-race. He did 12 laps on his second stint on the alternate compound. What worked in Lundgaard's favor was everyone who stopped early made their second stops within five laps of Lundgaard's first stop. He wasn't off strategy for long.
Once he did those 12 laps on the alternates, and made it so he could split the final 50 laps over two stints. Lundgaard put himself into a prime position for a top five result. It turned into a podium finish, and third-place required a late pass on Felix Rosenqvist.
Through three races, other than Palou, I don't think anyone has turned more heads than Lundgaard. Victory is coming.
4. Felix Rosenqvist was about three laps shy of a podium result. Fourth is not a disappointment, but for a driver who struggles to finish better than where he starts when he starts in the top five, Rosenqvist looked set to have a net-gain from his starting spot. Instead, it was net-zero, but fourth is still great.
Rosenqvist was running in the top five the entire race and he was on the same strategy as the leaders. He didn't have a race where the car faded after great promise in qualifying. Rosenqvist had a great day. Lundgaard had a little more at the end.
5. For another race where it didn't look like Team Penske would have much, Will Power pulled out a top five result. Will Power wasn't even the best Team Penske driver until the final stint. He and neither of the other two Penske drivers were close to victory. Fifth was as good as it was going to get.
It is two consecutive impressive results considering where Power started, but Penske has some work to do.
6. Scott McLaughlin was the best running Penske driver for most of this race. It helped that he started sixth. It looked like McLaughlin was in prime position when he stopped on lap six to shed the alternate tires. After his pit stop, he was side-by-side with Colton Herta exiting the pit lane despite there being four spots between the drivers prior to the stop.
Unfortunately, that battle out of the pit lane and on the out-lap, which included Josef Newgarden who stopped at the end of lap two, cost all three drivers. They lost time battling with each other and it allowed Kirkwood, Palou and Rosenqvist to make their pit stops and remain ahead. Once they were through with the alternate tire, there was no great opportunity for the likes of McLaughlin, Herta and Newgarden those three to jump any further ahead. They were kind of stuck in a spot where at best they would be finishing in the top five.
7. This one must smart for Colton Herta because he and Kirkwood looked nearly identical throughout practice and qualifying. It looked like Herta was going to have the upperhand when the first round of pit stops began. Herta stopped on lap six. It felt like he was putting the pressure on Kirkwood to respond. Instead, Herta found himself battling McLaughlin and Newgarden. It must have been a slow pit stop that put Herta into the clutches of the Penske drivers, but it took Herta out of any battle for the lead.
Herta was ahead of McLaughlin after the stop, but McLaughlin made a pass on the out-lap in turn eight, and Herta was a sitting duck to Newgarden into turn nine. Herta never had a chance to overcome that. It is points lost and these days are too common for Herta.
8. Scott Dixon did nothing impressive and finished eighth, his 300th top ten finish. Dixon started on the primary tire, one of four consecutive finishers who started on the primary tire. He didn't quite have what Lundgaard had. Dixon was caught in traffic. He never got quite clear and he ended up eighth. It happens.
9. The top ten had two stunning surprises. The first was Sting Ray Robb in ninth. Robb did 52 laps on the primary tire. On his penultimate stint, Robb did 12 laps on the alternate, and it set up a 26-lap final stint on primary tires.
That is all strategy. Robb didn't lose time on the alternate tire. Running long to start on the primary tire was smart because he didn't get stuck in traffic like most of the alternate starters did. Robb got clean air by going long and being at the front. With how the pit stops cycle, Robb never got caught behind anybody. When it was time for his final stop, he made it and remained in the top ten. Robb started 19th today. This was a ten-spot gain from the start!
It is his second career top ten finish and Juncos Hollinger Racing deserves praise for the strategy.
10. Kyffin Simpson did nearly the same thing. Simpson did 29 laps on his first stint, nine laps on the alternates and then ended with two stints on the primary tire.
That is all Simpson did. He got clear air at the front and it got him track position that many lost battling amongst themselves. It is the first career top ten finish for Kyffin Simpson. Good for him.
11. Santino Ferrucci is the fifth primary tire starter to finish in the top 11. Ferrucci did it from last-place on the grid.
I don't know if too many drivers got caught up in the alternate tire not lasting long enough and many decided to get that stint out of the way, especially after seeing how the first two races played out, but this race was not one clear strategy.
Starting on either compound worked. For the six drivers that started on the primary tires, they started 12th, 14th, 17th, 19th, 24th and 27th. I don't know if everyone was too spoked in the top ten to think using the alternate compound mid-race could work, but it obviously did because all six of those drivers gained positions, specifically nine spots, six spots, ten spots, seven spots, 16 spots and six spots.
12. Everyone that finished 12th through 15th started in the top ten. Five of the six finishers from 12th through 17th started in the top ten. What cost them top ten finishes was battling amongst themselves. They got jammed up after they removed the alternate compound within the first eight laps.Once they were bunched together, it allowed the likes of Lundgaard, Dixon, Robb, Simpson and Ferrucci to inch ahead on each stint despite needing to use the alternate tires mid-race.
The order of those finishers were Marcus Ericsson, Patricio O'Ward, Marcus Armstrong and Alexander Rossi. Then you had Louis Foster, who started on the alternate tire in 20th, and then there was David Malukas who finished 17th after starting tenth.
Including Foster, this feels like a race where they all beat themselves. You can say they did what the race winner did, but I think we have seen enough that if you are starting eighth or ninth, you cannot run the same strategy as the pole-sitter or whoever the front-runners are. You must try something different. There is more to gain in those seven or eight spots ahead than in the 20 or so positions behind.
For Ericsson, a teammate won. For O'Ward, a teammate got on the podium. For Armstrong, a teammate was in the top five. For Rossi, he looked like he laid an egg. It is easy to say it was definitely wrong, but they were all starting with more to gain than lose, and they still lost today.
13. I want to pick out Louis Foster for a moment because while he did get his best finish in his three-race career, 16th was the top Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing finisher. All three RLLR cars started on the alternate tire.
What are they doing? Why is there no split strategy in a three-car team? I can understand a two-car team and neither feel that confident doing the alternative because it seems like a low payout, but with three cars, one must do something different.
Graham Rahal started 16th. What does he have to lose starting on the primary tire? Same with Devlin DeFrancesco. Everyone that started on the primary tire today made up at least six spots. On average, those drivers made up nine spots. Rahal lost six spots from his grid position! DeFrancesco was starting 23rd. He ended up 24th. On paper, he was due to do no worse than 17th and likely be on the cusp of a top ten finish. The same goes for Rahal.
You know a team is lost when it cannot even properly split the strategies, especially when the team has nothing to lose.
14. Robert Shwartzman was the sixth driver to start on the primary tire. Shwartzman went from 24th to 18th. He led some laps through one of the late pit cycles, but he didn't have the pace to put him in a position for something greater. Still a good day for him because it feels like Prema has been on the backfoot every weekend. That wasn't the case at Long Beach. It should feel good to beat Callum Ilott, who was 21st. Ilott didn't do a damn thing today. There are minor victories to take from this weekend, but still much work to do.
15. Dale Coyne Racing looked like Dale Coyne Racing today. Rinus VeeKay was 19th, which was six spots better than his grid spot, but still not stellar. Jacob Abel has had a rough start to his IndyCar career. Abel was off the lead lap for the third time in three races. Not a great day.
16. I am going to cover the hodgepodge of remaining drivers all at once.
Nolan Siegel was fighting some illness on race day and he dropped from 11th to 20th. If Siegel was sick, a good result was always going to be a stretch, but he needs a good day soon.
Christian Rasmussen was anonymous in 23rd. Ed Carpenter Racing is another example of a team that did not split strategy. Alexander Rossi was starting eighth. I understand Rossi starting on the alternate tires a little bit. Rasmussen was in 18th. Split the strategies! You cannot expect Rasmussen to gain many spots when he is doing the same thing as 14 of the 17 cars ahead of him.
No one rates Sting Ray Robb highly. We have seen what he has done in two full seasons. This result might have been 95% strategy, but Conor Daly cannot finish 25th with no apparent issues. It is not a good look for someone who may receive too much praise.
17. Josef Newgarden had loose seat belts cost him a top ten finish. On lap 61, he had a long stop to get it fixed while taking service for the final time. It cost him a few spots, but when the belts were still not good enough, Newgarden had to come in the following lap to get it properly fixed. Newgarden went from a tenth-place finish to 27th and one-lap down.
It is early, but that feels like the final nail in his coffin when it comes to the championship. That might be an exaggeration, but Newgarden hasn't won on a road or street course in approaching three years. Last season, he had eight finishes outside the top fifteen and nine finishes outside the top ten. Newgarden has finished outside the top ten of the last two races.
Look at the competition. No one can afford to make a mistake. Newgarden has blown one race, was non-competitive in the other, and I do not think banking on the six oval races will be enough to win the championship. Any comeback must start at Barber Motorsports Park in three weeks, not in a month-and-a-half at the Indianapolis 500. A third consecutive Indianapolis 500 victory would be historic, but it isn't going to save this season if the next two results are garbage.
Also, how the heck in the last four races have two Penske drivers had seat belt issues? The Will Power issue at Nashville felt like an oversight. The belief is Newgarden's latch was accidentally hit on track and that caused it to come loose. Still, we haven't seen any other teams have this issue. It is an odd coincidence, but sometimes coincidences are odd.
18. Through three races, we have seen tire strategy be the key factor. We talk about wanting tires that wear and force different strategies. Firestone has provided that through the first three races. I don't know if we saw the alternate tires run long enough to know if they were truly junk. I don't think they would have done 20-25 laps, but no one even tried to push that compound 15 laps.
19. Three races and we haven't had a caution lap since lap six of the season. When these drivers look like dopes, we chastise them beyond a reasonable level. Two consecutive caution-free races deserve proper recognition, especially when the drivers have gone 249 consecutive laps without blemish.
20. One more extended break. It is a holiday then an off-week for... reasons before we are back on track with Barber Motorsports Park. That opens the month of May. Prepare accordingly.
12. Everyone that finished 12th through 15th started in the top ten. Five of the six finishers from 12th through 17th started in the top ten. What cost them top ten finishes was battling amongst themselves. They got jammed up after they removed the alternate compound within the first eight laps.Once they were bunched together, it allowed the likes of Lundgaard, Dixon, Robb, Simpson and Ferrucci to inch ahead on each stint despite needing to use the alternate tires mid-race.
The order of those finishers were Marcus Ericsson, Patricio O'Ward, Marcus Armstrong and Alexander Rossi. Then you had Louis Foster, who started on the alternate tire in 20th, and then there was David Malukas who finished 17th after starting tenth.
Including Foster, this feels like a race where they all beat themselves. You can say they did what the race winner did, but I think we have seen enough that if you are starting eighth or ninth, you cannot run the same strategy as the pole-sitter or whoever the front-runners are. You must try something different. There is more to gain in those seven or eight spots ahead than in the 20 or so positions behind.
For Ericsson, a teammate won. For O'Ward, a teammate got on the podium. For Armstrong, a teammate was in the top five. For Rossi, he looked like he laid an egg. It is easy to say it was definitely wrong, but they were all starting with more to gain than lose, and they still lost today.
13. I want to pick out Louis Foster for a moment because while he did get his best finish in his three-race career, 16th was the top Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing finisher. All three RLLR cars started on the alternate tire.
What are they doing? Why is there no split strategy in a three-car team? I can understand a two-car team and neither feel that confident doing the alternative because it seems like a low payout, but with three cars, one must do something different.
Graham Rahal started 16th. What does he have to lose starting on the primary tire? Same with Devlin DeFrancesco. Everyone that started on the primary tire today made up at least six spots. On average, those drivers made up nine spots. Rahal lost six spots from his grid position! DeFrancesco was starting 23rd. He ended up 24th. On paper, he was due to do no worse than 17th and likely be on the cusp of a top ten finish. The same goes for Rahal.
You know a team is lost when it cannot even properly split the strategies, especially when the team has nothing to lose.
14. Robert Shwartzman was the sixth driver to start on the primary tire. Shwartzman went from 24th to 18th. He led some laps through one of the late pit cycles, but he didn't have the pace to put him in a position for something greater. Still a good day for him because it feels like Prema has been on the backfoot every weekend. That wasn't the case at Long Beach. It should feel good to beat Callum Ilott, who was 21st. Ilott didn't do a damn thing today. There are minor victories to take from this weekend, but still much work to do.
15. Dale Coyne Racing looked like Dale Coyne Racing today. Rinus VeeKay was 19th, which was six spots better than his grid spot, but still not stellar. Jacob Abel has had a rough start to his IndyCar career. Abel was off the lead lap for the third time in three races. Not a great day.
16. I am going to cover the hodgepodge of remaining drivers all at once.
Nolan Siegel was fighting some illness on race day and he dropped from 11th to 20th. If Siegel was sick, a good result was always going to be a stretch, but he needs a good day soon.
Christian Rasmussen was anonymous in 23rd. Ed Carpenter Racing is another example of a team that did not split strategy. Alexander Rossi was starting eighth. I understand Rossi starting on the alternate tires a little bit. Rasmussen was in 18th. Split the strategies! You cannot expect Rasmussen to gain many spots when he is doing the same thing as 14 of the 17 cars ahead of him.
No one rates Sting Ray Robb highly. We have seen what he has done in two full seasons. This result might have been 95% strategy, but Conor Daly cannot finish 25th with no apparent issues. It is not a good look for someone who may receive too much praise.
17. Josef Newgarden had loose seat belts cost him a top ten finish. On lap 61, he had a long stop to get it fixed while taking service for the final time. It cost him a few spots, but when the belts were still not good enough, Newgarden had to come in the following lap to get it properly fixed. Newgarden went from a tenth-place finish to 27th and one-lap down.
It is early, but that feels like the final nail in his coffin when it comes to the championship. That might be an exaggeration, but Newgarden hasn't won on a road or street course in approaching three years. Last season, he had eight finishes outside the top fifteen and nine finishes outside the top ten. Newgarden has finished outside the top ten of the last two races.
Look at the competition. No one can afford to make a mistake. Newgarden has blown one race, was non-competitive in the other, and I do not think banking on the six oval races will be enough to win the championship. Any comeback must start at Barber Motorsports Park in three weeks, not in a month-and-a-half at the Indianapolis 500. A third consecutive Indianapolis 500 victory would be historic, but it isn't going to save this season if the next two results are garbage.
Also, how the heck in the last four races have two Penske drivers had seat belt issues? The Will Power issue at Nashville felt like an oversight. The belief is Newgarden's latch was accidentally hit on track and that caused it to come loose. Still, we haven't seen any other teams have this issue. It is an odd coincidence, but sometimes coincidences are odd.
18. Through three races, we have seen tire strategy be the key factor. We talk about wanting tires that wear and force different strategies. Firestone has provided that through the first three races. I don't know if we saw the alternate tires run long enough to know if they were truly junk. I don't think they would have done 20-25 laps, but no one even tried to push that compound 15 laps.
19. Three races and we haven't had a caution lap since lap six of the season. When these drivers look like dopes, we chastise them beyond a reasonable level. Two consecutive caution-free races deserve proper recognition, especially when the drivers have gone 249 consecutive laps without blemish.
20. One more extended break. It is a holiday then an off-week for... reasons before we are back on track with Barber Motorsports Park. That opens the month of May. Prepare accordingly.
