Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...
Josef Newgarden ended the IndyCar season with a victory after the season from hell. There are plenty of fun notes from the IndyCar season we will share over the next month… and the five months of offseason after that. The NASCAR playoffs began with the Southern 500. Portland also hosted a race. Formula One returned from the summer break, and Ferrari had a nightmare. We saw the 69th grand slam. McLaren will have to wait another year to make history. A few drivers spent the afternoon sitting in the sand. Jonathan Rea announced he will retire from the World Superbike Championship after this season. However, we have a tradition on this Monday, and no, not Labor Day Monday.
2025 IndyCar Predictions: Revisited
It is the first day of the offseason, and I am mailing it in. We got back to what was written on New Years' Eve and see what thoughts when the offseason was only halfway through came true for the 2025 season.
The fun thing about this is even as I am writing this season, I don't think I have gone back and looked at the original predictions since maybe February when the season was only weeks away. There is a chance I haven't look at them since they were published. Only one prediction I can clearly recall. The rest will be a surprise even though I once knew them closely.
Let's dive into it.
1. Will Power has at least two pole positions and on multiple track disciplines
Wrong!
Power did not win two pole positions on multiple track disciplines. He won his first pole position in nearly two years at Gateway Motorsports Park, getting off the snide. However, for this predictions to be correct, Power only had five more chances after Gateway to fulfill this prediction. How did he do in qualifying at those races?
Road America: 8th
Mid-Ohio: 22nd
Toronto: 4th
Laguna Seca: 5th
Portland: 3rd
Power came close to that second pole position, and it coming on a road or street course, but it didn't quite pan out
2. Josef Newgarden will not have consecutive finishes outside the top 20
Wrong!
It somehow got worse for Newgarden in 2025. It felt like things were turning in the right direction at the first round when Newgarden finished third at St. Petersburg. It would not be long until we would see that was not the case.
A seat belt issue cost him a top five finish at Long Beach.
Indianapolis was marred with attenuator scandal, which relegated Newgarden to the lat row of the grid. While he drove into the top ten, a mechanical issue ended his race. However, while he finished 27th at Long Beach and 22nd at Indianapolis, those results were not consecutive. This prediction was safe.
Then Newgarden had nowhere to go when Louis Foster spun exiting turn four at Gateway, and Newgarden launched into the air. Though Newgarden walked away, he was 25th. Then at Road America, Newgarden spun off turn four and hit the barrier while running in the top ten. This was another 25th-place result and this prediction was dead halfway through the season. To add insult to injury, Newgarden had an accident on the opening lap at Mid-Ohio to make it three consecutive results worse than 20th.
Newgarden would have two more results outside the top 20, 24th at Toronto and 24th at Portland.
3. Álex Palou will have consecutive finishes outside the top 20
Wrong!
This one looks stupid and maybe we should just assume Palou will never have a slump. Palou had one finish outside the top 20. It was 25th at Detroit after David Malukas ran into the back of the Catalan driver and put Palou in the barrier. Without that, Palou has zero finishes outside the top twenty for the third consecutive season.
Palou isn't going to mistake. It is going to come down to the schlubs around him running out of talent at the wrong time or mechanical issues. That is the only way such a prediction as this one can be correct.
4. Colton Herta will end the year with enough FIA Super License points
Wrong!
For the second time in our lives, we have expected Herta to carry momentum after a strong finish to a season only for it to not carry over to the next year. It felt like he turned a curve at the end of 2024 with eight top five finishes in the final ten races, including two victories and four podium results. It was enough to place Herta second in the championship, but it seemed like he was set to become a championship contender.
Instead, in 2025, Herta regressed with only two total podium finishes, five top five finishes, and no victories while dropping to seventh in the championship.
To reach 40 Super License points, Herta had to finish in the top four of the championship. It felt like that would easily be achieved this year. I think we are at the point where we must acknowledge that Herta is a very good driver, but not one who is going to consistently put together great success. I don't know why that is the case. Some of it could be him. Some of it could be Andretti Global.
He will turn 26 years old next March. At the earliest, he will make Formula One when he is 27 years old. Not too old, but older than we see most drivers make it to the world championship. Is it worth for Herta? When he was 22 or 23 years old, it made sense, but at 27 years old, is a three-season detour worth it only to return to IndyCar at 30 or 31 years old?
5. Scott Dixon will win a race from pole position
Wrong!
For starters, Scott Dixon never won a pole position, so part one of this two-part prediction never came true. Without part one, part two could never see the light of day.
We have gone three full seasons without Scott Dixon winning a pole position. It has been exactly 62 races since Dixon qualified first. He has not won a race from pole position in nearly nine years. It was September 4, 2016 at Watkins Glen. That is rather unfathomable that Dixon has not won a race from pole position in over nine years.
6. There will be a first-time winner with at least 50 career starts
Wrong!
We did have a first-time winner, and it was at an oval as we expected, but it was Christian Rasmussen in his 30th start at Milwaukee.
It wasn't Santino Ferrucci or Conor Daly or David Malukas or Jack Harvey in an unthinkable Indianapolis 500 result. Maybe this happens next year.
7. There will not be consecutive races where the opening lap is under caution
Wrong!
I think IndyCar might have a caution problem, or at least a race start problem. For starters, there were three consecutive races with an opening lap caution.
At Road America, Kyffin Simpson and Jacob Abel got together in turn three.
At Mid-Ohio, Josef Newgarden spun and collected Graham Rahal.
In the first Iowa race, Colton Herta spun off of turn four.
St. Petersburg, Indianapolis 500, Laguna Seca and Nashville were four other races that had opening lap cautions. It should be noted the Indianapolis 500 started under caution partially due to the moist conditions and Scott McLaughlin spun on the pace laps.
Last season, there were seven races that saw an opening lap caution. Twelve races had the first caution come within the first four laps this season. I don't think that is a good thing. I don't know how to fix it.
8. Marcus Ericsson will finish in the top nine of oval points
Wrong!
Very wrong. Ericsson ended the 2025 season 21st in oval points. He scored 76 points over the six oval races. That is an average of 12.667 points per oval race. Even if you restored second place for the Indianapolis 500, he would have ended with 112 points and short of the top nine. This was a depressing season for Ericsson.
9. The Thermal Club race will have at least 150 total passes
Correct!
For all the sanctimony over Thermal Club hosting a championship IndyCar event, the race was pretty decent, and it had 246 total passes, 208 of those passes were for position.
The box score will say Álex Palou won by over ten seconds ahead of Patricio O'Ward, but that does not tell the full story about how Palou chased down O'Ward and erased a ten-second gap. It will not tell the battle Palou had with Lundgaard as well as some of the battles we saw throughout the field. Felix Rosenqvist went from ninth to fifth. Will Power went from 21st to sixth. Graham Rahal went from 18th to 11th. All this happened in a race with zero caution periods.
We can acknowledge Thermal had its flaws in terms of reach and what IndyCar hoped to gain from it. The track and race were good.
Just wait for five years when the faux nostalgia kicks in and everyone acts like they wanted this race to happen. It is one of the rare times a racetrack wanted to host an IndyCar race, and everyone was angry about such attention.
10. Among the 11 full-time teams, Prema will finish at least eighth in total top ten finishes
Wrong!
Prema ended the season with six total top ten finishes, which was ninth-most among the 11 full-time teams.
It was more than Juncos Hollinger Racing, which had five, and Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, which had four, but I don't think I counted on Dale Coyne Racing having seven top ten finishes, and all at the hands of Rinus VeeKay.
I still think it is a little impressive that Prema beat two teams in total top ten finishes, especially RLLR considering it won a race two years ago. It wasn't enough for this prediction to be correct.
11. There will be a change to the IndyCar practice structure
Correct!
We are counting this one because the season started with a 45-minute opening session on Fridays before the field was split into two groups and each received ten minutes. Ahead of the Barber Motorsports Park round, the opening session was decreased to 40 minutes, but the split groups portion saw the track time increase to 12 minutes per group.
It counts. They changed practice. Give me this one.
12. At least one race outside the Indianapolis 500 will have a car fail to qualify
Wrong!
And I am a little surprised about this one. I should say I am surprised across the board we didn't see any midseason driver changes. We didn't even see a substitute driver used when someone got knocked out, though Tony Kanaan nearly started the second Iowa race when Nolan Siegel was not cleared to race. It couldn't have been as crazy as last season, but this was a complete counterbalance to the circus that was 2024.
However, I am surprised there wasn't a race a team had a drive who had funding or a sponsor willing to pay for an extra car, and roll the dice on missing Long Beach, Gateway, Road America, Iowa or Laguna Seca.
Let's look at it this way, if Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing wanted to field a fourth car for Jüri Vips at Portland, like it did last season, it isn't putting any of its other cars at risk, why not do it? It really would come down to how much of a jerk did you want to be to Prema, as Prema was the only team without a charter and both its cars would have been at risk of missing the race.
I don't know how much of a gentleman's agreement there was for no one to field an extra car this season, even if the money was there, but it would have been understandable if any team had done it. If Honda had really wanted its Super Formula prodigy Kakunoshin Ohta to run an IndyCar race with Meyer Shank Racing at Road America, I don't think anyone would have been mad or felt they were doing Prema dirty. Teams, sponsors, manufacturers and drivers are still going to do what is best for them. If Hunter McElrea had found the money to run at Portland with a team, McElrea wasn't going to abstain from the attempt because of Prema.
Either way, it didn't happen, and that is another incorrect prediction.
By the way, how would have IndyCar handled a 28th entry for Iowa or any oval doubleheader weekend?
My guess is every car would have qualified, and the first lap would still count for race one and the second lap would still count for race two but in theory a car could have missed race one, but ran fast enough to make race two while another car could have had the inverse, in for race one but out for race two. That would have been fascinating to see. A team on the sidelines for all of Saturday, but still having a race to prepare for on Sunday. I wish it happened just so we got to see it.
Ouch... 2/12. That is horrendous.
Some of these fell a little short. Who would have thought Newgarden would be this off this season or we would see another season where seven races featured an opening lap caution? Either way, this is rock bottom. Let's hope 2026 goes a little better. It could not be much worse.
2024: 7/12
2023: 9/12
2022: 6/12
2021: 4/12
2020: 8/11 (one prediction was about Richmond, which never happened)
2019: 5.5/12
2018: 6/12
2017: 8/12
2016: 6/12
2015: 8/12
2014: 10/14
Winners From the Weekend
You know about Josef Newgarden, but did you know...
Oscar Piastri won the Dutch Grand Prix, his seventh victory of the season.
Chase Briscoe won the Southern 500 for the second consecutive year. Connor Zilisch won the Grand National Series race from Portland, his eighth victory of the season. Corey Heim won the Truck race from Darlington, his eighth victory of the season.
Myles Rowe won the Indy Lights race from Nashville, his second victory of the season.
The #98 Rowe Racing BMW of Augusto Farfus, Jesse Krohn and Raffaele Marciello won the 3 Hours of Nürburgring.
Sébsatien Ogier won Rally del Paraguay, his fourth victory of the season.
Coming Up This Weekend
Formula One keeps itself busy with a weekend at Monza.
MotoGP has another round in Spain, this time in Barcelona.
Gateway hosts a NASCAR playoff race.
The FIA World Endurance Championship is in the United States, in the heat of Austin, Texas.
GT World Challenge America will have a weekend at Barber Motorsports Park.
World Superbike will be at Magny-Cours.
The SuperMotocross World Championship's first round takes place at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
