Monday, December 9, 2024

Musings From the Weekend: Last Things Last

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

The Formula One season concluded with a Lando Norris victory clinching McLaren's first World Constructors' Championship since 1998. Red was too common a color in São Paulo. There was a photo finish in Sepang. All that was needed to determine the Super GT GT500 championship was qualifying at Suzuka. Some 24 Hours of Daytona seats were confirmed. Colton Herta will drive with CrowdStrike Racing by APR in LMP2. Kevin Magnussen is going to be a BMW driver in WEC, but we don't know if he will be at Daytona. Andy Lally's final race will be the 24 Hours of Daytona. Genesis confirmed its LMDh program due for 2026 with André Lotterer and Pipo Derani as its first drivers. Dreyer & Reinbold Racing confirmed its 2025 Indianapolis 500 lineup. Toyota is exiting the NHRA after 2025. However, this is our final Musings From the Weekend of the year, and there is a project I had to close out this year. The topic is quite fitting for the last Musings from the year.

Last Things Last
When the IndyCar season ended in September and we were going over some tidbits from the 2024 season, there was one area that caught my eye. Last place.

At that time, I wondered how many drivers had finished last place in a race and then won the next one. This was after Josef Newgarden was last place at Milwaukee and I thought he had a good chance of winning at Nashville. The answer was 30.

However, I was not done with last place data.

Last place is an unofficial status. There is no tracking in the record book. It exists, but no one is counting. Everybody understands what it means to win, and everyone understands what it means to finish last. Nobody wants it. Somebody has to get it. 

But last place is not as simple as being the worst. Last place can be a good day gone bad. It can be an unexpected mechanical issue or being caught in someone else's mess. It is less likely that the worst driver in the race finishes last than the best driver finishes first.

Last place is also a little vague. There is no hard and fast position for last. Some races recognized in the IndyCar record book featured fewer than ten cars. A fifth-place finish could have been last. There was a time when 20th was last. Today, it varied between 27th and 28th in most races. At Indianapolis, it is 33rd, but it was once 42nd. One day, a finish is better than last. The next, it is last. 

When going over last place finishes for tidbits, I decided to do my best to come up with a comprehensive collection of last place statistics from IndyCar with the records available. We can name who has the most victories, most pole positions and so on, but we don't have official numbers of most last place finishes, and highest last place finish percentage. This is my attempt to provide some answers. 

Where do we begin? Why not the most? I am sure you are wondering, "Who has the most last place finishes in IndyCar history, and how many?" 

Before we get there, it should be noted that 702 drivers have finished last in an IndyCar race. For comparison, 299 drivers have won an IndyCar race. Last place is much more inviting than first. Let's face it, it is easier to be last than first. If well more than double the total of drivers have finished last, that suggests we are not going to see some high number as the all-time record. While A.J. Foyt leads with 67 victories, the most last place finishes will likely not be close to that. 

It isn't. 

So who is the all-time leader? Why don't I give you the top ten, which is actually 11 drivers?

1. Paul Tracy - 18 
2. Marco Andretti - 16
3. Takuma Sato - 16
4. Bobby Unser - 14
5. Lloyd Ruby - 13
6. Graham Rahal - 13
7. Rodger Ward - 12
8. George Snider - 12
9. Raul Boesel - 12
10. Buddy Lazier - 12
11. Tony Kanaan - 12

As you can see, last place is not exclusive for the worst drivers. 

Of the drivers with at least 12 last place finishes, over half were champions (George Snider included). Five are Indianapolis 500 winners. 

Paul Tracy was not the worst IndyCar driver ever... but he was surely one of the most aggressive, and that likely played into him having 18 last place finishes. Bobby Unser was not the worst IndyCar driver ever... but he too was aggressive and he pushed equipment harder than most. 

For as much flak as Marco Andretti gets, he too was not the worst IndyCar driver ever. He wasn't the best either, but he was not immune from pushing it or suffering a mechanical issue. 

Takuma Sato will forever be known for going beyond the limit, sometimes to a fault. It is not surprising he is tied for second-most last place finishes in IndyCar history, but Sato is again not one of the worst IndyCar drivers ever. 

This is a collection of the some of the most aggressive drivers in IndyCar history, and those who were not afraid to giving it all and then some. This is also a group of some of the most experienced drivers ever and that is a factor as well.

Six of the 11 drivers made at least 200 starts. Boesel made 199. Snider had the fewest starts at 142. The more you start, the more likely you are going to have some last place finishes. Tracy has the most last place finishes but his last place finish percentage is 6.405%. That is between Roberto Moreno's 6.4% (eight last place finishes in 125 starts) and Arnie Knepper's 6.5789% (five last place finishes in 76 starts). Tracy's winning percentage was 11.032%. For all the times he finished last, Tracy won almost double that amount.

(In case you were wondering, a total of 20 drivers have at least ten last place finishes. This includes Dario Franchitti with 11, and then Johnny Parsons, Mike Mosley, Spike Gehlhausen, Ed Carpenter, Hélio Castroneves,  Ryan Hunter-Reay, Scott Dixon and Sébastien Bourdais all tied on ten).

Totals aside, what about percentage? 

Fifty-three drivers have finished last place in every one of their IndyCar starts. For 52 drivers, they only made one IndyCar start. 

I am not going to list all 53 drivers who only finished last in their careers, but I will give you the one driver that made multiple starts and finished last each time. As you may guess, that driver only made two IndyCar starts. The good news is if you make at least three starts, you are guaranteed not going to finish last in at least one of them.

The one driver was Jerry Kubik. Kubik's only two starts came in 1947. He was last in the final two races of the season, 18th at Springfield and 14th at Arlington Downs.

Who was the most recent driver to finish last in his only IndyCar start? I am going to give you the last two, because they have happened more recently than you realize. Though one should not surprise you.

The most recent was Jean Alesi. Alesi's only IndyCar start was in an ill-fated Lotus in the 2012 Indianapolis 500. One of one two Lotus-engined cars in the race, Alesi's Fan Force United Lotus was classified in 33rd-place, last, but Alesi got last after a penalty. He was docked two laps for not immediately coming in when he and Simona de Silvestro in the other Lotus were black-flagged from the race after only ten laps. 

So technically, Alesi was classified in last, but he wasn't last on the road.

You don't have to go back much further for the next most recent last place finisher in his only IndyCar start. 

Coincidentally, it came in the last race at Twin Ring Motegi in 2011. Running the road course at Motegi after earthquake damage made the oval unsuitable, João Paulo de Oliveira, a champion in Formula Nippon and race winner in Super GT, was entered in one of Conquest Racing's entries. De Oliveira qualified 12th at a circuit he won at earlier in the year and he had won twice in the last two years. 

However, a fuel pump failed the Brazilian after 19 laps and his only IndyCar start was a last place finish. De Oliveira would go on to win at Motegi the following year in Super Formula and he won again at the circuit in 2014. Those were two of the six additional victories he would achieve in his Super Formula career post-2011. In Super GT, he won the GT300 championship in 2020 and 2022. His 2020 title included a victory at Motegi. 

However, it requires more than just one or two starts to really have the worst last place percentage, but where do you set the limit?

I am going to set two levels, 20 starts and 50 starts. 

With 20 starts, you at least started a full season worth of IndyCar races. Even that doesn't seem like enough, but it is a fair number of races. What does the top ten (which will be 11 again for good reason) look like? 

1. Dale Coyne - 26.47% (9/34)
2. Dan Clarke - 25.925% (7/27)
3. Cliff Hucul - 25% (6/24)
4. Johnny Aitken - 21.739% (5/23)
5. Art Klein - 20% (9/45)
6. Carlos Huertas - 19.047% (4/21)
7. Steve Chassey - 18.367% (9/49)
8. Milka Duno - 16.279% (7/43)
9. Joe Saldana - 15.789% (6/38)
10. Spencer Wishart - 15.384% (4/26)
11. Ira Vail - 15.217% (7/46)

These are the 11 drivers with a last place percentage over 15% with at least 20 career starts. 

This is a little more representative in terms of driver ability. I would not have guess Dale Coyne would top this list, but it is almost fitting it is him. I saw everyone of Dan Clarke's starts and I knew he had his bad days. I didn't realize how many their were in such a short period of time until I gathered the information. 

However, this too is not a barometer for the worst drivers in IndyCar history. Johnny Aitken is fourth having finished last in 21.739% of his starts. Johnny Aitken also won 26.086% of his starts. In nearly half the races in his career, Aitken either finished first or last. Aitken also raced during a time period where he was fourth and that was last place. In another race he was tenth and that was last. In another race he finished last and was sixth. 

Aitken also has the distinction of finishing last and first in the same race. In the 1916 American Grand Prize held on the Santa Monica road course, Aitken's Peugeot fell out of the race after completing only one lap. He was classified in last, 21st. Aitken drove the final 28 laps in relief for teammate Howdy Wilcox and he brought the #26 Peugeot home in first, over six minutes ahead of Earl Cooper. 

Twenty starts is a fair number, but maybe not the most fair. Fifty starts is a few seasons. That is basically three full seasons in contemporary IndyCar. For some drivers, 50 starts was a career and even then some guys didn't even hit that milestone. Ted Horn didn't make it to 50 career starts. Neither did Wilbur Shaw, Mauri Rose or Louis Meyer. Those three barely made it over 30. 

What do the numbers for last place percentage look like for those with at least 50 starts? In this case, you will only get ten drivers.

1. Spike Gehlhausen - 12.658% (10/79)
2. Ralph Liguori - 12.307% (8/65)
3. Mario Moraes - 12% (6/50)
4. Salt Walther - 10.9375% (7/64)
5. Bennett Hill - 10.606% (7/66)
6. Rex Mays - 10.526% (6/57)
7. Jerry Grant - 9.615% (5/52)
8. Jerry Karl - 9.589% (7/73)
9. A.J. Foyt IV - 9.523% (8/84)
10. Johnny Parsons - 9.433% (10/106)

These are the ten drivers who finished last place in more than 9% of their career starts, minimum 50 starts. 

It should come as no surprise that two of the 20 drivers with at least ten last place finishes are listed here. Gehlhausen does have one of the toughest career records in IndyCar history. He also has the worst average finish in Indianapolis 500 history among drivers with at least five career starts (26.4).

There is another quirk in this top ten like the one of drivers with at least 20 starts. Rex Mays did finish last in 10.526% of this starts, but he also won 14.035% of his starts. It was a different time. 

Going back to what started this exercise a few months ago, how many drivers have finished first after finishing last, but what about the reverse? How many drivers have finished last after finishing first?

The answer is 40, and I will not list them all for the sake of not turning this into a 3,000 word dissertation. When was the most recent one? Well... it is tied with the most recent time a driver has gone from last to first. 

In 2019, Will Power won at Pocono. Power was then the first car out of the race at Gateway the following week. A week after last at Gateway, Power won at Portland. The last time a driver went from last to first immediately followed the last time a driver went from first to last, all in a three-race span. 

Power's three-race rollercoaster ride is one of seven occasions in IndyCar history where a driver went first-last-first. These I will list. 

1.  Billy Arnold
First in the Indianapolis 500 on May 30, 1930. 

Last (14th) at the Michigan State Fairgrounds on June 9, 1930.

First at Altoona Speedway on June 14, 1930.

2. Rex Mays
First at in the Langhorne 100 on June 30, 1946.

Last (11th) at Lakewood Speedway in Atlanta on September 2, 1946.

First in the Indianapolis 100 at the Indiana State Fairgrounds on September 15, 1946.

3. A.J. Foyt 
First in the Ted Horn Memorial from DuQuoin on September 4, 1961.

Last (18th) at Syracuse on September 9, 1961.

Won the Hoosier Hundred at the Indiana State Fairgrounds on September 16, 1961.

4. Rodger Ward
First in the Hoosier Hundred from the Indiana State Fairgrounds on September 14, 1963.

Last (26th) at Trenton on September 22, 1963.

First at Sacramento on October 27, 1963.

5. Michael Andretti
First at Portland on June 24, 1990.

Last (25th) at Cleveland on July 8, 1990. 

First at the Meadowlands on July 15, 1990.

6. Dario Franchitti
First at Montreal on August 25, 2002.

Last (18th) at Denver on September 1, 2002.

First at Rockingham on September 14, 2002.

7. Will Power
First at Pocono on August 18, 2019.

Last (22nd) at Gateway on August 24, 2019.

First at Portland on September 1, 2019.

In case you are wondering, "Has any driver gone last-first-last?" 

The answer to that is nobody. 

There remains some things we have yet to see in IndyCar history. Perhaps one day it happens, though I don't think any driver would like to experience the yo-yo of results from low to high to back to low. The first driver to have a crack at it will be Felix Rosenqvist. 

There was one other thing that crossed my mind.

Which driver has made the most starts without having a last place finish? I will tease you by saying the answer may surprise you. 

Every driver who is somebody has finished last at some point. Mario Andretti did it eight times. A.J. Foyt nine times. Only two drivers with at least 200 starts had fewer than five last place finishes in a career. Simon Pagenaud had four in 207 starts. Rick Mears had three in 203 starts. It is bound to happen once. Except for one driver. 

Going over the numbers, there is a driver who made over 100 starts and never finished in last place. 

It is Danica Patrick! In 116 starts, she never finished in last place. She did have a remarkably consistent career, and does hold the record for most consecutive races finished. But she had a few accidents and a few bad days, none of which however saw her complete the fewest number of laps. 

Who is next closest? It is an active driver. In 89 starts, Patricio O'Ward has yet to finish in last. 

I am sure there are more ways to pick at the last place data, but I am leaving 2024 providing more than you likely knew and more than anyone else has likely documented. What does it mean? Nothing, other than there is more information on something that will not change the world. It is fun to have but rather insignificant. It doesn't change that it can be seen as fun.

Champions From the Weekend
You know about McLaren, but did you know...

Gabriel Bortoleto clinched the Formula Two championship with a pair of runner-up finishes in Abu Dhabi.

The #36 TGR Team au TOM'S Toyota of Sho Tsuboi and Kenta Yamashita clinched the Super GT GT500 championship with pole position for the season finale from Suzuka. The #36 Toyota went on to win the finale as well.

The #88 JLOC Lamborghini of Takashi Kogure and Yuya Motojima clinched the Super GT GT300 championship with victory in Suzuka.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Lando Norris and the Super GT finale, but did you know...

Mitch Evans won the São Paulo ePrix after starting in dead last.

Pepe Martí (sprint) and Joshua Dürksen (feature) split the Formula Two races from Abu Dhabi. 

The #30 RD Limited Oreca-Gibson of Tristan Vautier, James Allen and Fred Poordad won the first 4 Hours of Sepang. The #35 Ultimate Ligier-Nissan of Stéphane Lémeret, Matteo Quintarelli and Bence Válint won in LMP3. The #57 Car Guy Racing Ferrari of Esteban Masson, Daniel Serra and Yudai Uchida won in GT.

The #25 Algarve Pro Racing Oreca-Gibson of Malthe Jakobsen, Michael Jensen and Valerio Rinicella won the second 4 Hours of Sepang, a shortened race due to weather. The #35 Ultimate Ligier-Nissan swept the weekend in LMP3. The #81 Winward Racing Mercedes-AMG of Jules Gounon, Gabriele Piana and Rinat Salikhov won in GT.

Coming Up This Weekend
Well... nothing from what I can see on my calendar. I am sure there is something, but the next few weeks are open in my book. 
Christmas shopping.
Cutting down a Christmas tree.
Time with family.
Writing. 
How does that sound?