Monday, October 20, 2025

Musings From the Weekend: Forbidden Fruit

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

A few more championships were handed out. Rain played a role in Indianapolis' second endurance. Joe Gibbs increased his championship odds. A championship went to the wire in Spain though it felt rather secured at the start of the weekend. The championship lead changed in the World Rally Championship as that has two rounds remaining. Rinus VeeKay secured a seat. McLaren did not have a clean weekend as Formula One is back in the Americas, and it raced in Austin, though the racing isn't the only news to come from the weekend. The biggest news involved the future of how Formula One is presented in the United States.

Forbidden Fruit
In less than a decade, Formula One has found a gold mine in the United States. 

What once was niche that had its moment on the big stage has become in the know, from a successful docuseries on Netflix to frequent inclusions in television commercials to a blockbuster film, Formula One has never been bigger. With the increase in popularity comes an increase in prices. Formula One will be looking to make as much money as it can, and it earned itself with a nice payday. 

As Formula One experiences the highest viewership it has ever had in the United States, it cashed in when it announced a new broadcast agreement with Apple TV over the next five years with the annual value estimated between $120-150 million. It wasn't look ago, Formula One got about $4 million a year out of States. Formula One is at highest, but is it the apex and the start of a descent?

We always knew there would be a breaking point for Formula One. ESPN took over broadcast rights for practically $0 when Formula One and NBC could not come to terms with streaming rights as F1TV was being introduced. After a first race that saw commercial breaks whimsically thrown into a broadcast with no concern for what was happening during the race, a change was made and races were then broadcasted commercial-free. From there, it was all uphill. 

Combined with Drive to Survive, Formula One was presented in a way no other sports league was in the United States, and it caught an audience that was otherwise unaware of its existence. Soon it led to a boom no other motorsports series was seeing in this country. It is no longer odd to see a Formula One driver in an untraditional space in the United States. Companies openly celebrate their partnerships with Formula One teams. With such attention comes a price. 

Formula One makes its money through broadcast deals, and while ESPN ultimately did open its wallet after years of essentially paid nothing, there was going to be a breaking point. Commercial-free coverage is a loss. A television network doesn't make money on viewership. It makes money on turning viewership into sold advertisements. You get nothing for having two million watching a race. You get paid for the five commercial breaks an hour at three minutes a pop with 30 individual spots that fill the program that two million people are watching. When a race is commercial-free, a network isn't making money. 

ESPN could sell a presenting sponsor for a broadcast, but Mother's car polish or Mercedes-Benz isn't getting the most bang for the buck. The network is getting something back, but it is not breaking even. ESPN can accept a loss here and there, but it cannot constantly being accept a loss. With the cost increasing to north of $100 million a year, ESPN was priced out, and it left few suitors at the table. 

Enter Apple, a company that successfully partnered for the F1 movie and who makes money from something other than television production. Television is Apple's hobby. It makes the big bucks on electronic devices from iPhones to iPads to MacBooks, Apple is more interested in being in your pocket and on our desk than if you subscribe to Apple TV, but it hopes you pay for that as well. 

While there are scripted television shows and movies Apple has produced, there is another revenue source in live sports it has been venturing into. Its first big jump was with Major League Soccer as it became the exclusive global broadcaster of all matches. It has also broadcasted a pair of Major League Baseball games on Friday nights for the last four seasons. 

Neither experiment has quite proven to be a grand success.

For Major League Soccer, it has a dedicated home, which has given it more attention than previous partners, but viewership is significantly down as the league has moved away from network and cable television partners and only one game a week is simulcasted on either Fox or FS1. Teams have also lost local television deals meaning fans who live within a team's market cannot turn on a local channel and watch a game on television. The only choice is Apple, which requires a subscription and then it requires an additional sponsors for the MLS League Pass to see every MLS match. 

For Major League Baseball, there are reports Apple will end the contract early and not continue broadcasting games on Friday night.

Either way, whether it is MLS or MLB, Apple has never publicly celebrated viewership. It has never bragged about the number of viewers for a game. If the news was good, they would not hide it. That is what Formula One is viewing as it will start a five-year agreement in 2026. 

Everything will be on Apple. It does not sound like Apple will have all the races and then a handful of races will be on national television somewhere. The three races in the United States, the other three races in the Americas, the night races in the Middle East that are run at a favorable hour and the Monaco Grand Prix will all only be available on Apple TV. This isn't going to be like the old deals where Speed Channel had most of the races but for some reason CBS would get four races and they were likely all shown tape-delayed and there was no way to see them live. 

There is not going to be a way to watch Formula One on terrestrial television next year. In one way, it is a massive step back to something we haven't seen in decades, absent from a space where it once at place. However, it will still be available, it will just require more work to access it.

This move is strictly about making money. Any move to a streaming-only option is not about increasing viewership and leading to more exposure. Streaming is a component of broadcasting, not the end-all be-all. 

Formula One has proven many wrong in the United States. It has stuck and the country hosts three races. The Las Vegas strip is closed down to host a race. A decade ago, that was a fever dream. However, it is likely Formula One will suffer moving to Apple. While Drive to Survive has survived coming from a streaming platform, a docuseries is different from the actual races. The races have been included through whatever cable or streaming bundle a person already has. This will force people to either subscribe to a new platform or not subscribe at all. 

Some will do so because they want to watch Formula One and it means that much to them, but we also know when an additional price is added on, people assess whether or not it is necessary. There will be a fair number who decide not to subscribe to Apple TV. They may still follow Drive to Survive. They may watch the highlights on YouTube or social media, but if they aren't watching the race broadcasts, Formula One will lose out. If they stop watching the races, there is a better chance they stop watching altogether, and all that progress that has been made over the last eight years will disappear quickly.

While this will be the most lucrative television deal Formula One has ever had for the United States, it is a dangerous deal, and a year from now Formula One will learn the truth about its reach in the United States.

Champions From the Weekend
Toprak Razgatlioglu clinched the World Superbike championship with finishes of second and third from Jerez despite retiring from the Super Pole race. This is Razgatlioglu's third World Superbike championship.

The #48 VDS Panis Racing Oreca-Gibson of Oliver Gray, Esteban Masson and Charles Milesi clinched the European Le Mans Series LMP2 championship with a victory in the 4 Hours of Portimão.

The #82 TF Sport Corvette of Rui Andrade, Charlie Eastwood and Hiroshi Koizumi clinched the ELMS LMGT3 championship with a class victory at Portimão.

Kelvin van der Linde won the Intercontinental GT Challenge championship as van der Linde and the #46 Team WRT BMW with co-drivers Charles Weerts and Valentino Rossi won the Indianapolis 8 Hour.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about a few race winners, but did you know...

Max Verstappen won the United States Grand Prix, his fifth victory of the season. Verstappen also won the sprint race. 

Raúl Fernández won MotoGP's Australian Grand Prix, his first career MotoGP victory. Marco Bezzecchi won the sprint race. Senna Agius won in Moto2, his second victory of the season. José Antonio Rueda won in Moto3, his tenth victory of the season.

Chase Briscoe won the NASCAR Cup race from Talladega, his third victory of the season. Austin Hill won the Grand National Series race, his fourth victory of the season. Gio Ruggiero won the Truck race, his first career victory.

Nicolò Bulega swept the World Superbike races from Jerez, leaving him 13 points of Razgatlioglu in the championship. Stefano Manzi and Jaume Masià split the World Supersport races.

The #17 CLX Motorsport Ligier-Toyota of Adrien Closmenil, Theodor Jensen and Paul Lanchère won in the LMP3 class at the 4 Hours of Portimão, the team's fifth victory in six races.

The #100 Stanley Team Kunimitsu Honda of Naoki Yamamoto and Tadasuke Makino won the Super GT race from Autopolis. The #666 Seven x Seven Racing Porsche of Harry King, Tsubasa Kondo and Kiyoto Fujinami won in GT300.

Kalle Rovanperä won the Central European Rally, his third victory of the season.

Coming Up This Weekend
NASCAR has its penultimate round from Martinsville.
Formula One heads down to Mexico City.
MotoGP is off to Malaysia. 
Supercars' Final Series begins with a round at Surfers Paradise.