Monday, January 19, 2026

Musings From the Weekend: The Chase Resumes

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Nasser Al-Attiyah won the Dakar Rally for the sixth time. Luciano Benavides overcame a three-minute and 20-second deficit in the final stage to win the bike class by two seconds over Ricky Brabec. Paul Navarro won in the Challenger class. American Brock Heger led an American 1-2 in the SSV class with Kyle Chaney in second. Vaidotas Žala was on top in the truck class. Meanwhile, Dario Franchitti returned to competition. IndyCar aired a commercial. IMSA ran the Roar before the 24 at Daytona. However, the news of the week happened on Monday, even though we all saw it coming. 

The Chase Resumes
One week after NASCAR announced a return to a "Chase format," a ten-race aggregate that will determine the champion instead of a multi-round, elimination format, the feeling remains the same. This was as good as it was going to get. 

The level of dissatisfaction with the championship format throughout the 2025 season was too much to ignore, and it tipped over at the end of the season. Something was going to change. The exact change was the mystery entering the offseason, knowing the answer would not be revealed until January.

It was not a change to a multi-race final round. It was not a return to a 36-race aggregate. It was in the middle. 

The first 26 races will determine the championship eligible drivers. It will be the top 16 on points. No more win-and-in. No more playoff points. No drivers clinching playoff spots at the Daytona 500. No fluke winners getting in thanks to a rain-shortened race and despite having only five top ten finishes and being 27th in points. Once the field is set, it will be whoever has the most points after the final ten races. 

A few tweaks were made to the points system. A race winner will now get 55 points, which theoretically makes it impossible for any other finisher to score more points than the ace winner, but I think NASCAR forgot it started awarding a point for fastest lap last season, and second-place can still score a maximum 56 points. Either way, it incentivized winning more than the previous season. All these things have been done to encouraging winning and fighting for first rather than settling for second or third or so on. 

It is different, and it is getting away from the flawed system that NASCAR used for 12 seasons. There is some satisfaction. "Compromise" was said a lot. It isn't a full season aggregate, but it isn't boiling down to the result of the final race. Not that the ten-race aggregate was without blemishes. The first 26 races do not carry the same weight. They matter, but they do not decide the champion. They decide who could be champion. Regular season championship finish will determine how many points a driver starts with, and carry some weight, but 26 races are reduced to five points between positions. If you are lucky, you start first and with a 25-point cushion. 

Again, compromise. It could be worse. 

NASCAR was never going to do anything that ambitious. It was never going to flip the system upside down, adopt the FIA points system where only the top ten finishers would earn points, and despite the drumbeat, a full season aggregate felt just out of reach. It was too large of a swing in the other direction. It was going to stick with its comfort zone. 

It might be a comfort zone, but it is a shock to the system. Rarely do you hear NASCAR admit it made a mistake. The phrase "we screwed up" was never uttered, but the format change and the admission the previous system was flawed, confusing and acknowledging it didn't attract any casual viewers is as close as we were going to get. However, this is a return to a NASCAR that had been long abandoned. 

Those on stage were not praising "game seven" moments. They were not talking about aggressive, go-for-broke racing. It was almost a return to sanity, a recognization that having the battle for ninth being the most important thing at the end of the race was not for the better of the series. "Consistency" did not become a taboo word to say. 

For over a decade, the dominoes fell as NASCAR chased (mind the pun) attention through drama and it altered its appearance. Will this change lead to further changes? 

Does Daytona need to be the regular season finale? Shouldn't that use move back to July? Does Bristol need to be in the playoffs? Does Martinsville need to be the penultimate race? What about playoff race rotation? For the first half of the 2020s, NASCAR set itself on being open to schedule changes and rotating races to keep it fresh, especially with the elimination format. With that gone, is it necessary and what push will there be?

One of the flaws with the original Chase format was how the final ten races didn't change, and many attribute that to as to why Jimmie Johnson was so successful, but if the final ten races all count, do they have to rotate? I would make an argument they should, but is that urge still going to be there? 

We are going to see how NASCAR continues to adjust in 2027 and onward. If there is one thing NSACAR does best, it is continue to make tweaks to its system. We are starting 2026 with it being the top 16 drives on points, but if Shane van Gisbergen wins four times in the regular season in points and ends up 21st in points, does that lead to "wild cards" returning for two or three or four races winners? Will it become the top 14 plus two or the top 12 plus four? 

The system we have today likely will not be identical when 2030 rolls around. History shouts that clearly.

I don't think the format change will drive away van Gisbergen. I think he will embrace the challenge of trying to be in the top 16. With more points for winning a race, if he wins enough, he could crack the top 16. After all, Juan Pablo Montoya qualified for a 12-drive Chase. It isn't impossible. It will require work, and it is clear van Gisbergen isn't going to be scared off but rather work to reach that mark.

For 2026, we know what it will take to make the Chase, and that will be in the top 16. Drivers are still going to clinch playoff spots early, but they aren't going to clinch in February. It will still likely come down to the final race to decide the final spots in the top 16. There will still be a cutline to watch, even if it is only after one race. Everyone will have the same bar to shoot for. A victory will be nice, but it will not entirely cover for a poor season. A victory isn't going to lift a driver from 29th to 16th. It can be a nice boost to a season, but not elevated to an unnecessarily high level.

Until we see how this system plays out, we will not know how it will work, and one year is not of a sample size. This year will be an adjustment, but mostly to the tone. How NASCAR talks about itself during a race and week-to-week will change, and it will be tough to change. This system will feel foreign at times because this has been forgotten territory. The paths are still there, they just need a weed-whacker to be cleared. 

The funnest thing that occurred to me in the immediate aftermath of this format is the continued use of stage points actually makes it more likely that a championship could be clinched early. What if that were to happen in year one of the Chase's return? Keep that in mind over this season. 

Winners From the Weekend
You know about the Dakar Rally winners but did you know...

The #669 Team WRT BMW of Kelvin van der Linde, Jordan Pepper, Fran Rueda, Ben Tuck and Anthony McIntosh won the Dubai 24 Hour

Emerson Axsom won the Chili Bowl

Eli Tomac won the Supercross race from San Diego. Haiden Deegan won the 250cc race.

Coming Up This Weekend
It is time for the 24 Hours of Daytona.
Rallye Monte-Carlo opens the 2026 World Rally Championship season.