Practice is mostly behind us all but for a shakedown early ahead of Saturday qualifying for the 110th Indianapolis 500. Over the course of the next two days, the grid will be set for this year's race, with some drivers shooting for the stars and looking to enter race week on a great wave of confidence, while others are hoping just to have a good day and shake whatever troubles have been following them.
This year, 33 cars are going to qualify. There will be no bumping. The hope is to be one of 15 drivers who will have a shot at qualifying for pole position on Sunday afternoon. A few teams look strong and appear to be the top contenders for the top spot. However, this practice week did not see a regular group at the front. A number of drivers rotated through at the top, and it feels wide-open who could continue into Sunday.
What is the Qualifying Weekend Schedule?
The field will be split into two groups for the Saturday morning practice session. Each group will get a half-hour of track time starting at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Qualifying will begin at 11:00 a.m. ET and the session will run until 5:50 p.m. ET. As long as a car is on track by 5:50 p.m. ET to start on qualifying run, that team will be allowed to complete their attempt.
The top nine teams at the end of Saturday will advance to the Fast 12 session on Sunday. Tenth through 15th from Saturday qualifying will advance to the Final 15 session, which will open Sunday qualifying. The fastest three from the Final 15 session will join the Fast 12. The three slowest cars from the Final 15 will start on row five. The cars ranked 16th to 33rd at the end of Saturday will be locked into those starting positions.
There will be two hours of practice on Sunday starting at 1:00 p.m. The Final 15 participants will get an hour before the nine cars in the Fast 12 will get the final hour of practice at 2:00 p.m.
The Final 15 will run at 4:00 p.m. with each car getting one qualifying attempt. The Fast 12 will take place at 5:00 p.m. with each car getting one attempt. The Fast Six will close out qualifying at 6:35 p.m. ET.
What is the Weather Forecast?
Ominous at best. Rain is in the forecast, and it could plague all proceedings on Saturday.
The morning practice session should be fine with a temperature around 66º F and winds blowing at ten miles per hour from the South Southwest. However, showers could start around 10:00 a.m. and continue through about 4:00 p.m. The chance of precipitation over the entire day is 63%.
While the rain will continue on-and-off throughout the night into Sunday, it should clear by sunrise, and Sunday appears to be devoid of any precipitation. Temperatures will climb to their highest for this entire week. At 1:00 p.m., when the practice session is scheduled to begin for the Final 15 and Fast 12 participants, it would be about 79º F and the winds will continue to blow from the South at 11 mph.
At 4:00 p.m., the scheduled start time for the Final 15, temperatures are forecasted to be 82º F with the temperature increasing another degree around the start of the Fast 12 session. The temperature will remain around 82-83º F through the end of the scheduled qualifying session, and winds will remain consistent from the South.
What does rain mean for qualifying?
Reports from Zion Brown and Nathan Brown of the Indianapolis Star are if not every car makes it through the qualifying line on Saturday, everyone will need to qualifying on Sunday. IndyCar will do all it can to get through all 33 cars on Saturday. I would imagine everything is on the table in terms of extending the session late into the evening.
If qualifying were not to have taken place on Saturday or if qualifying were need to be restarted on Sunday, the exact format is not known in terms of everyone getting one run and then the make up of a Final 15/Fast 12 format.
What is the Qualifying Order?
1. Scott Dixon
2. Christian Lundgaard
3. Ryan Hunter-Reay
4. Ed Carpenter
5. Rinus VeeKay
6. Scott McLaughlin
7. Nolan Siegel
8. Graham Rahal
9. Josef Newgarden
10. Will Power
11. Felix Rosenqvist
12. Santino Ferrucci
13. Marcus Ericsson
14. Conor Daly
15. Mick Schumacher
16. Romain Grosjean
17. Marcus Armstrong
18. Patricio O'Ward
19. David Malukas
20. Alexander Rossi
21. Dennis Hauger
22. Sting Ray Robb
23. Kyle Kirkwood
24. Caio Collet
25. Hélio Castroneves
26. Takuma Sato
27. Christian Rasmussen
28. Louis Foster
29. Kyffin Simpson
30. Jack Harvey
31. Álex Palou
32. Jacob Abel
33. Katherine Legge
Who is in play for the Final 15?
Team Penske looks good.
Over the four days, Scott McLaughlin had the best average overall practice result. McLaughlin's average overall practice result was 7.5, and he was third on Friday, but he also ran the fastest no-tow lap on the final day of practice. McLaughlin had the second-best no-tow time on Thursday. His worst practice day overall was 12th on Thursday.
Meanwhile, David Malukas was tied for the best average no-tow result over the for days at 6.75 with Rinus VeeKay. Malukas ranked in the top ten all four days, and his best no-tow day was third on Thursday.
Josef Newgarden has been a little more quiet, but he was 13th-best in terms of average overall practice result at 13.75, and his average no-tow result was tied for 14th at 15.5.
It should come as no surprise that Álex Palou appears to be a factor. Palou was second to McLaughlin in average overall practice result at 7.75, and Palou was first, second, 22nd and sixth over the four days. His teammate Scott Dixon was third-best, averaging eighth overall over the four practice days.
On no-tow times, Palou was tied for the fifth-best average at 10.25, and he was fourth and second-best on no-tow times over the final two practice days. Dixon never cracked the top ten in the no-tow report over the four days, but his average was equal to Newgarden's.
The other three drivers who topped a practice day overall were Conor Daly (Wednesday), Patricio O'Ward (Thursday) and Felix Rosenqvist (Friday). The fastest no-tow drivers each day along with McLaughlin were Kyle Kirkwood (Tuesday), O'Ward (Wednesday) and Takuma Sato on (Thursday).
Practice week was jumbled up as there was not a consistent number of drivers clearly at the top. Marcus Armstrong had the fourth-best average overall practice result at 9.25, but he was second and third on Tuesday and Thursday respectively, and 11th and 21st on the other two days. Armstrong's Meyer Shank Racing teammate Felix Rosenqvist was right behind Armstrong with an average of 9.75, but Rosenqvist was 22nd and 12th in the first two days before ending up fourth and first in the final two days.
Malukas and VeeKay were tied for the best average no-tow result, but the only other two drivers to average tenth or better on the no-tow report over four days were O'Ward (7.25) and Christian Rasmussen (10.0).
Alexander Rossi has been particularly quick, ranking fifth and second overall over the final two practice days, and he had the ninth-best average no-tow result at 12.75, falling back on being second on Wednesday and fourth on Friday.
Daly was just behind Rossi at an average overall practice result of 10.5. Daly was third and first the first two days, but 25th and 13th in the next two days. On Friday, he was seventh on the no-tow results. Daly's Dreyer & Reinbold Racing teammate Jack Harvey had respectable no-tow results. Harvey's average no-tow result over four days was 10.25, equal to Palou's, but Harvey was third and seventh in the first two days before dropping to 15th and 16th in the next two days.
Both A.J. Foyt Racing drivers have looked capable of making the Final 15. In terms of no-tow results, Caio Collet was tied for the 11th-best average at 13.5, and Santino Ferrucci was 13th at 15.25.
Andretti Global did not end Friday feeling confident, but it did end the week with two drivers ranked in the top ten of average no-tow result. Marcus Ericsson was eighth with an average of 12th. Kyle Kirkwood was tenth with an average of 13th. However, Ericsson was fourth and third in the first two days before dropping to 19th and 22nd in the next two. Kirkwood ran the fastest no-tow lap on Tuesday, but did not register one on Wednesday, was seventh on Thursday and closed the week in 31st on Friday.
Romain Grosjean ranked in the top ten overall on the first three practice days, but Grosjean was 30th on Friday, and his average no-tow result was 23.5, 28th best over the week.
On Friday, Christian Lundgaard was 12th on no-tow times, his best result of the week, but Lundgaard only cracked the top 20 overall once, and that was him being in 19th on Friday. The Dane has the third-worst average overall practice result at 24.75, only ahead of Katherine Legge (30.75) and Mick Schumacher (31.75).
Louis Foster is a sneaky outsider for the Final 15. Foster never ranked worse than 18th on the no-tow report over the four days, and his best day was fifth on Wednesday. While his Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing teammate Takuma Sato was the fastest no-tow driver on Thursday, Sato was 17th or worse on that chart over the other three days.
Who got a favorable qualifying draw?
Everyone in the first six cars should be feeling good. Lundgaard and Ryan Hunter-Reay have not shown blistering pace at any point this month. Hunter-Reay is tied with Katherine Legge for worst average no-tow result over four days at 27.75. However, an early draw could be a blessing. Lundgaard saved his best stuff for the final practice day. An early draw could put Lundgaard at the front and time could be on his side.
Ed Carpenter had his best no-tow result of the week on Friday in 13th, and Carpenter will qualify fourth. Going out fifth plays well for Rinus VeeKay. Graham Rahal could net a few extra positions as the eighth qualifier. A semi-early draw could save Marcus Ericsson again, as he will be the 13th driver to take to the track. Fourteenth is not a bad spot in line for Conor Daly, especially just to crack the top 15 and stay alive into Sunday.
Who is handcuffed thanks to the qualifying draw?
The tricky thing is we don't know when qualifying will take place. It could start on-time tomorrow and being late in the order isn't great. It could be delayed and the final qualifiers could be going out after 6:00 p.m., which could be more beneficial. There is a world where qualifying could be seriously segmented with 11 cars qualifying from 11:00 a.m. to noon, a delay preventing qualifying runs until 3:00 p.m. where another 11 cars get on track and then another delay could happen and IndyCar could decide to run the final 11 cars post-6:00 p.m. Those are three distinct parts of the day.
If qualifying is completely delayed to Sunday or they have to restart, going out late could be worse, especially if everyone only gets one guaranteed run before progressing to the Final 15/Fast 12. Sunday looks particularly warm in the middle of the afternoon. It will be better to go out early in those circumstances.
Just based on this draw, 20th isn't great for Alexander Rossi, nor is 23rd any better for Kyle Kirkwood. Takuma Sato and Christian Rasmussen are 26th and 27th respectively. If Jack Harvey was having any hope of being a qualifying spoiler, he will really need to work for it from 30th in line. Álex Palou will be the 31st qualifier, and while we have seen Palou pull out great runs at anytime, it feels like Palou could be forced to run a second or third time before the conditions will not be in his favor his first moment on track.
Can we acknowledge that the final two entries that materialized for this year's Indianapolis 500 are the final two qualifiers in line? No breaks were given to Jacob Abel or Katherine Legge this year. Not that it really mattered. It feels like both are likely going to run once and call it a day. Both drivers were ranked 25th or worse in three of the four practice days. Legge was the slowest in three of the four days.
What Does the Qualifying Order Tell Us?
Last year, eight of the Fast 12 made it based on their first qualifying run, including the fastest six times from Saturday qualifying. However, there was an even distribution of where those drivers came from the qualifying order.
While three of the first four qualifiers on Saturday made the Fast 12 based on their first qualifying run, another three drivers made it and came 25th or later in the order. The other two were the 13th and 14th qualifiers.
Marcus Ericsson was the first car on track, and that run was good enough to be 11th. Patricio O'Ward was the second qualifier and his time was fourth at the end of the day. Robert Shwartzman was the fourth qualifier last year, and his time held on to be the sixth-best on the day.
Despite the late draw, Álex Palou qualified fastest on Saturday from the 25th position in the qualifying line. Scott McLaughlin went two drivers later and was second fastest on Saturday. Josef Newgarden was 33rd in line, but he skipped his run only to go out after Rinus VeeKay, the 34th and final driver in the initial qualifying line ran.
Felix Rosenqvist and Scott Dixon were the 13th and 14th qualifiers, each making the Fast 12 based on their first qualifying attempts.
As for the other four drivers to make it, they all made it on their second attempts, however, two of them would have been fine on their first runs.
David Malukas and Takuma Sato would have been fine with their first qualifying runs. They were eight and ninth respectively after being 16th and 21st in the initial qualifying line. However, on their second attempts, they each improved their qualifying times. Malukas moved up to seventh. Sato was faster on his second run, but he remained ninth. These two qualifying runs each came in the final 12 runs of the day. Sato was the 65th attempt out of 76 on the first qualifying day, and Malukas was 69th.
Will Power was 11th after his first qualifying run, and Power was the 18th in the qualifying line. Power returned to the track and improved to tenth.
The final driver to make the Fast 12 was Christian Lundgaard, and he made it on his second attempt, the 50th of the day. At that point, Alexander Rossi had qualified 12th three attempts before Lundgaard. Kyffin Simpson had been holding onto 12th since the first run through the line and was knocked down to 13th. Lundgaard has been eighth in the initial qualifying line, and his four-lap average improved by 1.505 mph from the first to the second attempt. Lundgaard was ranked 22nd after the first run through the qualifying line. Rossi was 13th on the first run through the line.
Of the top 30 qualifiers from last year's Saturday session, only 13 made it on their first attempt speed. In 2024, 20 of the top 30 qualifiers were locked in based on their first qualifying attempt. In 2025, 15 of the top 30 were fastest on their second attempts. The only drivers to make it based on their third attempts were Conor Daly and Rossi. Daly had his first qualifying time disallowed after his car did not pass technical inspection post-qualifying run. That disallowed time would have been 13th-best after the first run through the qualifying line.
Only two drivers made only one attempt last year in Saturday qualifying. They were Robert Shwartzman and Josef Newgarden. Seven drivers made at last three attempts, and only two of those made a fourth attempt. Conor Daly, Marcus Ericsson, Santino Ferrucci, Will Power and Rinus VeeKay all made three attempts. Rossi and Marco Andretti, who did not make the top 30 and had to qualify via the Last Chance Qualifying session on Sunday, each made four attempts.
There were 73 qualifying attempts made last year during Saturday qualifying, one fewer than occurred during Saturday qualifying in 2024. However, in 2025, only 11 attempts were waved off after 19 were waved off in 2024.
