1. Álex Palou is too good to be lucky, but Palou is rather fortunate. Palou was on pit lane making his second pit stop of the race when Scott Dixon and Alexander Rossi made contact on the back straightaway. It timed perfectly for Palou, as he was able to make his pit stop and emerge from the pit lane still on the lead lap. He avoided being trapped a lap down, and instead of running just inside the top five but well behind the leaders as he was prior to the caution, Palou cycled right to the lead, and the race was in his control from there forward.
Palou didn't do anything special. He didn't make a timely pass. This wasn't a case of strategy being in his favor and having the better tire compound in the final stint or having fresher tires and chasing down the leaders in the closing laps. Palou caught a break. If the caution comes five seconds later, he is trapped a lap down. He would have waved around back to the lead lap, however, Palou is likely in a fight to finish in the top five at best instead of fighting for the victory in that scenario.
Once Palou was ahead, all he had to do was keep the car straight. There was not much of a challenge from behind even if Josef Newgarden was in his rearview mirrors. Palou kept a healthy gap, and having the primary tire looked to be an advantage. As the race entered its final stages, Palou was opening a gap to the rest of the front-runners, all of whom were on the alternate tire compound.
In a blink, Palou is back in command of the championship with his fifth victory of the season. For a few races, the gap was closing, but Palou took a healthy chunk of points back from the competition with six races remaining. Two of those races are at tracks Palou dominated, Portland and Laguna Seca. Markham and Washington, D.C. will be new for everyone. The Milwaukee doubleheader is not a hurdle for Palou. It will take something sensational for anyone to beat Palou at this point.
2. Josef Newgarden was second, and he spent almost the entire race in second. Whether it was Kyle Kirkwood leading early, David Malukas leading after he went off strategy or Palou in the second half of the race, Newgarden was likely second. Newgarden looked frustrated post-race. It was a good race but not a great race. He couldn't quite get to the front and take command of the race. If he did, Newgarden probably would have won this one. It was clear if you were out front, you were in control of the race. Newgarden never got there though no one spent more time in second.
It is still second. Newgarden has been banged up since the Indianapolis accident. On the ovals, he is still stellar with two victories and a runner-up result since the injury. His road and street course form has been rough during that period. His road and street course form has had room for improvement for about three years now. He still runs well, but ovals are the one disciple Newgarden is still the favorite from the start of the weekend. When he doesn't win, it is a missed opportunity of the few opportunities he gets to be the man.
3. I am simultaneously going to dismiss and give credit to David Malukas for today's race.
Malukas got to the lead because the team did not stop under the first caution for Caio Collet's accident. After about 30 laps, Malukas stayed out as did Louis Foster and Christian Lundgaard. It worked for Malukas. Foster and Lundgaard dropped like rocks. Malukas held the lead even with older tires. He didn't do anything special to get the lead. The team made a wise call considering Malukas started last. That car was phenomenal, and it didn't chew up tires.
However, the recovery drive after being caught a lap down for the Rossi-Dixon accident was special. Malukas did wave around to the lead lap, but he still had to pick his way forward, and he benefitted again when Dennis Hauger hit the wall while the final pit cycle was just under way. Malukas had yet to make his final stop. Hauger's accident gifted Malukas four more spots and it got him into a podium position.
Malukas' crew rolled the dice and remained true to a three-stop strategy, but the risk was stopping about 20-30 laps before the rest of the field would need to stop, putting Malukas in a tough spot if a caution came out before the rest of the field cycled through pit lane. It cost him, but the way this race played out it still worked in Malukas' favor.
Without the practice accident, Malukas is definitely finishing on the podium and maybe he would have won. With Palou catching the caution the way he did, Malukas may have been destined to finish second anyway. It was the drive of the day regardless of how the cautions fell.
4. Scott McLaughlin rivaled Malukas' drive. McLaughlin was caught out when Hauger hit the wall. McLaughlin waved around back to the lead lap, but he restarted 12th. McLaughlin was shot out of the cannon, and none of the other drivers who were caught out due to the Hauger accident could match that pace. McLaughlin worked his way up to fourth in almost no time. Then his alternate tire compound was shot as was the rest of the leaders.
McLaughlin spent most of the race in the top five. He should have finished in the top five. It was a good result. It was another great drive when it appeared his race had been flipped upside down.
5. I don't think Felix Rosenqvist did anything special. Other than not getting into accidents and not being caught out during a pit cycle, Rosenqvist was ok in this race. Maybe he should have snuck into the top ten. The top five was generous. These races happen.
6. Marcus Ericsson looked good today but not great. Sixth is probably about right for Ericsson. It might be a spot generous. Ericsson ran well in this one. He wasn't as good as he was at Gateway, but he had good place.
7. Patricio O'Ward stole a top ten today. O'Ward was nowhere for the first 185 laps, and then O'Ward catches the final caution in his favor as he had yet to stop when Hauger hit the wall. O'Ward was basically 12th or 13th all race before that. This was not a good race for O'Ward, and we see these races from O'Ward at least three times a season. They are head-scratching every time. When Arrow McLaren is nowhere, they are nowhere!
8. Who would have thought Mick Schumacher's first top ten finish in IndyCar would be eighth at Nashville? Schumacher was about four spots better than he should have been, but Schumacher was running on the edge of the top ten for this entire race. He was the best Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing driver the entire day and it wasn't close. Schumacher probably should have had a top ten in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. He was due a good result. He had a good day even if it was a little better than if this race has shaken out with one fewer caution period.
9. The strange thing is Kyffin Simpson was ahead of Álex Palou after the pit stops when Rossi and Dixon came together. Then Simpson came back down pit lane under that caution. It was not explained why Simpson had to come down. It wasn't a penalty. Simpson was not listed as taking emergency service. Unless the team didn't get the car full of fuel in a rash effort to get out before being caught a lap down, it is inexplicable why Simpson had to come back to the pit lane. Either way, Simpson got a little break and then he did not stop before the Hauger accident. This secured Simpson into the top ten position. He did nothing flashy, but you take the result anyway you can get them.
10. Kyle Kirkwood was nearly in the exact same position as Palou when the Hauger caution came out except Kirkwood was about five seconds too late and was trapped a lap down. If Hauger hit the wall five seconds earlier, Kirkwood may have exited pit lane ahead of Palou and cycled to the lead. If the caution was ten seconds earlier, Kirkwood definitely would have taken the lead.
Instead, Kirkwood was cycled back to 11th, and he didn't have the jump McLaughlin did on the final restart. It took Kirkwood a good ten lap to make up one position and that is all he got. Kirkwood was solidly in the top five this entire race and was fighting for the podium. This is harsh result.
It didn't make any sense why Kirkwood or anyone stopped that early when everyone should have stopped right as the car hit the reserve tank for that final pit stop. There was no advantage to stopping early. No one was leaping forward stopping early because they had fresher tires with a clear racetrack. It didn't make any sense, and it is somewhat an unforced error from this group.
11. Nolan Siegel had a good race, and Siegel was the best McLaren driver today. He was on the cusp of a top ten position, kind of running equal to Schumacher for much of this race. Siegel had found his form, especially since the month of May. I don't know if he has a future in IndyCar, though the rumor mill has him potentially moving to Juncos Hollinger Racing with a shakeup in ownership at that organization. It does feel like we are at a limit. It has been better than where Siegel has been.
12. Rinus VeeKay and Santino Ferrucci were caught out like Kirkwood and McLaughlin, and like Kirkwood, neither VeeKay nor Ferrucci made up any ground during the final stint. VeeKay was in a top five position for much of this race. Ferrucci was in sixth for much of it. A good number of drivers were gifted at least four positions in this race. This result does not tell the story of how well VeeKay and Ferrucci raced.
13. Let's blow through the field.
Romain Grosjean was 14th and did nothing.
Sting Ray Robb was 15th because ten drivers had issues and Robb always made sure to stop the latest. The strategy got him something today.
Christian Lundgaard never looked comfortable and avoiding serious trouble got him 16th. It wasn't a good weekend for him.
Louis Foster rolled the dice staying out after the Collet caution but that car was terrible. Foster did his best. He was still caught a lap down in 17th.
18. Scott Dixon's woeful Ganassi swan-song continued. Dixon lost a bunch of spots at the start, and then he lost even more positions at the first restart. Dixon wasn't driving well to begin with before running into he back of Alexander Rossi, Rossi said he was clearly entering pit lane. The broadcast booth couldn't believe Rossi slowed that late to enter the pit lane. It never looked like Rossi was making an attempt to enter the access road. Dixon was caught in a rough spot. I don't know why Rossi was slowing that late. We will get back to Rossi in a second. As for Dixon, it feels like the fast ball is gone, and it has felt that way for a few months.
19. Graham Rahal had a disaster of a weekend. The car was always slow. There is a good chance Rahal spent much of this weekend driving a broken car, and that was before he hit the wall in practice. He was parked with about 16 laps to go. There was a point he was three seconds off the pace. Rahal probably should have been parked sooner. This isn't new for RLLR. It is more stunning Rahal and Schumacher qualified third and fourth respectively at Phoenix in the first oval race of the season. What is going on at this team? It is inconceivable the team could fluctuate that wildly between oval races.
20. I don't know what happened to Will Power but he was shuffled out of the top twenty and off the lead lap early in this race and it was never covered. Power's crappy season at Andretti Global continues.
21. Dennis Hauger got into the marbles exiting turn two and slapped the wall. Hauger wasn't great. He wasn't terrible. He wasn't that far off Grosjean prior to that accident. It still wasn't a good weekend for Hauger. It is stunning how much Dale Coyne Racing has dropped off from last year and this is with technical support from Andretti Global... are 80% of the teams in IndyCar just bad?
22. The price you pay with Christian Rasmussen is he is driving on the edge at all times. Unfortunately, he goes over the edge more times than not, and today he slapped the wall when looking prime for a top ten finish and possibly a top five run. Within a few laps of that happening, Rossi had his accident with Dixon. It is amazing how many times this season both Ed Carpenter Racing cars have had trouble within a few laps of one another.
Focusing on Rasmussen, he has been celebrated for his aggressive style, but these results happen far more often than his Milwaukee victory. This was his third retirement in four oval races this season. The car failed him at Indianapolis, and that one is forgiven, but he still drove over the edge at Phoenix and he drove over the edge today, and that isn't even mentioning how lackluster his road and street course form has been for going on three seasons. Let's see what he does at Milwaukee because it is clear who he is everywhere else. Can he afford two more finishes outside the top fifteen when he likely will not crack the top ten in any of the remaining road and street course races?
As for Rossi, nothing is ever his fault. I don't know what happened to him, but 2018 and 2019 seem like a lifetime ago, and that is when we all though Rossi was a generational contender.
23. Marcus Armstrong had engine issues. The car was off-pace from the start and Armstrong kept losing paces. It was thought to be the tires but it was clearly something under the bonnet. It is a shame because Armstrong qualified eighth, and he had ran better than Rosenqvist all weekend.
Caio Collet overcorrected entering turn four and slammed the wall. None of the rookies have been great this year. No rookie has been great for the last four seasons or so. There has been moments to be excited about Collet, but there have been a great number of races he doesn't look special. He just need to complete laps today and he might have been a top ten contender.
24. There is a lot around this weekend we can touch upon later this week. People need to cool off. This was not an ideal way it played out with the rain delay. Following the FIFA World Cup Final was an opportunity, and IndyCar was smart to line up to follow the final. It cannot control the weather and it just didn't line up today. IndyCar had not had a race rained out to a Monday since 2018. It had been over eight years. It sucks it fell that way.
25. The one thing I will touch upon now is it looked very bad for IndyCar to shorten this race from 300 laps to 225 laps after the delay. I know IndyCar said it was because of the heat. It was hot two weeks ago at Mid-Ohio. IndyCar has had scorchers at Iowa and Texas and at plenty of other tracks. The heat hasn't caused any other races to be shortened. It was hot today. That cannot be denied. We saw it, but this is now a standard, and we know IndyCar is never going to enforce it again. The Indianapolis 500 isn't going to be heat-shortened. Portland isn't going to be shortened if it is too hot there in three weeks.
Honesty may be a greater topic of discussion later this week, but IndyCar could have been honest in this case. Once it lost the lead-out window following the World Cup Final, there was no reason to run a 300-lap race. There was no reason to have an extra 45 minutes of competition. IndyCar missed its chance. The party was over. Everyone wanted to go home. Even if Fox said it didn't have anything to do with the race distance being shortened, we know the series can make decisions without needing to be told. IndyCar had this race completed within two hours. It knew if it could get off-air within two hours or so, it would make the television partner much happier than pushing a three-hour window.
Did this race need to be 400 miles to begin with? No. The 225-laps distance worked fine last year, but following the World Cup Final, IndyCar had a full evening and night to itself and what was an extra 100 miles? Let's celebrate with more racing! The 300-mile distance is suitable for IndyCar, but once the 400-mile distance has been announced and promote, IndyCar should have seen it out and sucked it up this year. It could go back to 225 laps next year when we all knew the big World Cup tie-in was not there.
The series looked weak making this change, and it made the drivers and teams look weak as well. This wasn't the first race held in blistering heat and it will not be the last.
We will discuss this and a number of other peripheral qualms with the Nashville weekend later this week. It was an unfortunate set of circumstances, but a few decisions could have been handled better.
26. Oh, one last thing, the tires! We had multiple tire compounds today. Neither were different from the other. What is the point if the tires are basically going to be the same? That is a question we ask Firestone almost every week. I acknowledge conditions play a role, and conditions play a role into how a lot of races turn out. It being this hot didn't make it so the tires were practically inseparable. If there is going to be an alternate compound, it better be much different than the primary compound otherwise what is the point of the charade?
27. I think everyone will be happy that there are two full weeks off after this weekend. After that it is five consecutive weekends at a racetrack with six races during that period, and then that is it. The end of the 2026 IndyCar season is staring us right in the face.
